I’m calling it a diss, although you might disagree.

Here’s the quote in question, via Seth Livingstone of USA Today:

John Flaherty, former big-league catcher in his fifth season as a broadcaster for the YES Network, came up through the Boston Red Sox system ahead of Garciaparra and now sees Jeter and Rodriguez on a regular basis. He remembers well the discussions in the clubhouse similar to those among fans who debated the merits of the three stars.

“(Players would say) Alex might have the best all-around ability of the three — the fielding, the power, the tools scouts would see,” Flaherty says. “But then you’d go in a different direction: Who would you want on your team? Who would you want up in a big spot? Kind of throw the tools and talent out and the competition starts coming. You’d start thinking about Derek and Nomar.”

Each was different when it came to working them behind the plate.

“Nomar went up there, and you knew the first thing he saw he would let it fly,” Flaherty says. “He could do some damage on the first pitch of an at-bat. There was no trying to set him up. He wasn’t going to give you a strike. He was going to be very aggressive and, in Fenway, create a lot of damage.

“Derek’s the same way — very aggressive. He’s not going to hurt you as much (with power), but in a big spot you really had to be careful.

“Alex was more patient. He would try to work into a hitter’s count, so you could try to jump ahead, get strike one, then go to work.”

There’s a tacit, “Alex Rodriguez isn’t clutch,” argument embedded in here, isn’t there?

Photo by the AP

Not sure if this was mentioned at some point earlier this week, but, according to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, Yankees skipper, Joe Girardi, “has said he would like to decide on a fifth starter by next Thursday or Friday,” meaning that it is imperative for each of the five competing starters vying for the team’s final rotation spot to make the best of their remaining opportunities (possibly one more game a piece). Basically, this is it. It’s crunch time down in Florida.

Now for a quick tangent…

When you think about it strictly from a statistical perspective, spring training “battles” – assuming there are absolutely no preconceived notions going into them – are extremely asinine. In essence, Girardi, an example here, is making a pivotal pitching decision, one with real consequences, based on a few abbreviated and meaningless outings. Now, I do not view the Yankees’ fifth starter battle as a true spring competition, as Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have always seemed to have inside tracks, but it is still worth noting the inanity of the longstanding spring competition. The only utility I see provided by this practice is that it forces a complacent player to think he is fighting for his spot.

In this case, Joba Chamberlain is that particular player.

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Here are a few quick items on the evening regarding Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain:

• Sam Borden has an interesting piece out on the way the Yankees’ starters work with each other in order to craft and refine their own repertoires. A notable item from the article is that former Yankee, Mike Mussina, advised Phil Hughes to adopt a “spike grip” for his curveball back in ‘06. Hughes tried the grip and has used it ever since.
• According to an unnamed (of course) Yankee executive that spoke with ESPN 1050, on Wednesday, while facing Detroit, the first 2 innings Joba Chamberlain threw prior to giving up 6 earned runs were very good. In fact, the executive claimed that “he thought Chamberlain’s first two innings were the best he has looked in two years.”
• Speaking of Joba, Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues penned a piece on the right-hander’s reduced velocity, noting that he should employ his breaking pitches with greater regularity this season – and in the future – to counteract the loss. I think Joba’s curveball, in particular, is a very good pitch that he needs to use more often.

In 2009, the whiff rate on Joba’s curve was 14.9%, the second highest rate in his four-pitch repertoire, just behind the slider. It was put in play 10.9% of the time, which was actually the lowest rate of the four pitches in his arsenal.

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Although he is entrenched in the much-discussed competition for the fifth rotation spot this spring, right-hander, Phil Hughes, will continue to experiment with his changeup, in the hopes that it will become a reliable fixture in his pitch repertoire. “I’m trying to get my changeup down to where it can be a useful pitch for me,” said Hughes, after throwing 10 changeups during yesterday’s 2 2/3 inning-outing against Detroit. “It’s never going to get there if I don’t throw it,” he added. If he can master it, or at least increase its employment and effectiveness, even marginally, the changeup should be a most valuable weapon for Hughes in 2010 and beyond, particularly versus left-handed opponents.

In his short big-league career (192 2/3 innings), left-handed hitters have had some fun facing the young righty, posting a .274/.368/.450 slash line against him. The cutter that Hughes adopted last season, darting in on lefties, helps with that issue, though the change, sinking out of the zone, away and down, against lefty batters, should help him improve further. As stated by Hughes, “You get used to throwing changeups to lefties because there’s no risk in it. If you bounce it to your arm side, it’s not big deal. With a right-hander, you’ve really got to finish the pitch.” Hopefully, come the end of exhibition play, Hughes’ change will be refined to the point where it is an actual weapon for him this year.

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According to Tom Krasovic of FanHouse (props to RAB), next Tuesday, the Yankees will announce the hiring of former Padres GM, Kevin Towers. Towers will serve as a special scouting assistant to his friend, Brian Cashman, and will begin working in that capacity following his introduction. A good baseball brain, Towers will be a valuable asset to the organization and is an exciting addition to the front office. It will be interesting to see what impact he has this year.

Right-handed relief prospect, Mark Melancon, previously hailed as Mariano Rivera’s successor because of his live heater and hard curve, tossed 16 1/3 innings last season posting a 3.86 ERA. A closer look at his numbers indicates a much weaker performance than his ERA suggests, however, as Melancon walked 5.51 batters per nine and only struck out an identical 5.51 batters per nine, leading to a 4.44 FIP. Not too impressive, right? This was obviously an extremely small sample though, a mere handful of nervous rookie innings that were atypical of the work Melancon had done while in the minor leagues. With just over 150 innings pitched in the Yankees’ farm system, the confident righty boasts a 2.54 ERA and a 0.906 WHIP, numbers which are understandable given his dominant minor-league peripherals (9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9). Basically, down on the farm, he has been as effective as anyone could have hoped.

And so, I wonder, what will happen to Melancon this season? I definitely expect to see him, at some point, and believe he would be a tremendous asset to the team’s relief corps. Yet, with an already crowded bullpen, it seems the soon-to-be 25-year old will be slated for Scranton for most of the year, although someone could certainly falter or experience an injury that would alter such an outcome. CHONE projects Melancon to post a 4.42 FIP this season and Marcel sees a 4.23 FIP, but, given his legitimate success in the minors, his stuff, and his makeup, I’m inclined to believe FanGraphs’ fan projection, which forecasts the Colorado native as a 3.33 FIP pitcher with stellar peripherals. So far this spring, Melancon has appeared in 2 games, giving up 2 hits and striking out 3 over 2 2/3 innings pitched.

It’s a shame we won’t see Melancon more this season, but, I guess that is a testament to the team’s bullpen depth.

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It is no secret that Mariano Rivera’s average velocity on both his four-seamer and his cutter was down last season. Now that he is a full year removed from shoulder surgery, an issue that seemed to hinder his arm strength for much of 2009 and cause, in part, the downturn in pitch speed, we have a reason to be optimistic about his velocity going forward. However, if his velocity remains in its current range, or falls further, there is reason to wonder about his effectiveness over the course of a new contract, which he will seek after entering free agency at the end of the year.

Some may decry the notion that Rivera’s loss in velocity impacted his year – he did pitch exceptionally well, as he usually does – but, believe it or not, Rivera’s minor decrease in pitch speed did manifest itself in his contact rates. In fact, Rivera had some of the higher contact rates in the American League a season ago. In the spirit of Alice in Wonderland, the following is a nice 3D bar chart – I love me some bar charts, man – that showcases this relationship.

Rivera’s career average velocities for his fastball (purple bar) and his cut-fastball (blue bar) are featured on the left (in mph) and, as you can see, in 2009, on the right, the two pitch speeds are down a few mph – 91.8 and 91.3 – in comparison. Conversely, but not coincidentally, the amount of contact hitters made on Rivera’s pitches outside of the zone, i.e., O-Contact% (green bar), and the amount of contact hitters made on Rivera’s pitches inside of the zone, i.e., Z-Contact% (red bar), both experienced significant increases – O-Swing of 73.2% and Z-Swing of 90.2% – when compared to the career numbers (O-Swing of 61.7% and Z-Swing of 85.9%). From this, it seems reasonable for one to then ponder a possible connection between Rivera’s downturn in velocity and his upswing in contact percentage. Essentially, when your pitches are not really as fast as they once were, there is more time for hitters to react to them.

This, of course, could relate to pitch movement, too, rather than just velocity. Rivera’s decrease in pitch speed was likely brought on by a lack of arm strength throughout the season, and this issue seemed to simultaneously lessen the movement on his fastball and cut-fastball. In 2009, according to pitch f/x, the vertical movement (up) on Rivera’s fastball was 4.83 inches and the horizontal movement (lateral, in right-handers) was 0.74 inches. Both numbers were well below average. For comparison, in 2008, Rivera’s fastball rose 7.52 inches and broke in on righties at 1.54 inches (below average but not like in 2009). That signals a significant loss of movement on the fastball which probably explains why Rivera rarely used it last season, throwing it only 7% of the time, according to FanGraphs.

The cutter, the pitch Rivera used 82% of the time last season, also experienced a loss of movement. In 2008, its vertical rise was 7.21 inches – slightly less than the average mark for that year – and its horizontal movement (in on lefties, away from righties) was 2.52 inches, a mark which was well above average. However, in 2009, its vertical rise was 6.22 inches and its vertical movement was 2.12 inches. The vertical movement was a bit below average, about an inch below, but the horizontal break was still VERY good, despite the stated loss in year-to-year movement.

This, then, the decrease in Rivera’s pitch velocity and movement explains the marked increase in his contact rates (I looked at command, too, but his BB/9 of 1.63 was still under his career mark of 2.11). The two negative trends were likely brought on by the shoulder surgery Rivera had last winter that impacted his arm strength, but I’m sure age had something to do with it, as well (to a smaller degree). Some may say, well, if his velocity and pitch movement was down, and his contact rates were up, why was he still so effective in 2009? That is a valid question, of course, and I think it is mainly because Rivera has done away with his fastball in order to use the cutter almost exclusively. Even with the lesser movement last season, the movement was still great, which says a lot about the pitch. More contact was made, a notion evidenced further by Rivera’s higher than usual line drive rate – 21.8% in 2009, up from his career mark of 16.8% – but his peripherals were still above average across the board. Rivera seemed to realize the lack of velocity issue and went with more movement instead, though the cutter had less movement than it did in the past.

As I said at the outset of this novel, if the decrease in velocity remains, or continues, it might cause some concern when Rivera enters free agency and is looking for another contract. Those concerns are understandable, as the velocity change would impact Rivera’s game, a point made by his contact rates in 2009. However, he has clearly adapted well to his current abilities, and remains as effective as ever. He’s a robot, with or without a 96 mph fastball.

Photo by Reuters

According to George King of the NY Post, while it’s clear that right-handers, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, “are the favorites,” or at least the two early finalists, vying for the fifth rotation spot this spring, “there are voices within the organization who want Chamberlain and Hughes in the pen.” GM Brian Cashman discussed this very issue last week with the lovable Mike Francesa, pointing out that such a pitching configuration, one which would feature Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, or Sergio Mitre as the fifth starter – an option that many more are pondering today after a small sample of recent innings from both Mitre and Aceves – would certainly be to the Yankees’ short-term benefit.

However, Cashman noted that, long-term, such a situation is neither efficient or pragmatic. As stated by Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues, the Yankees need to cultivate at least one of their two young arms and inserting both into the team’s bullpen just does not work towards that goal. “The Yankees need to replace two starting pitchers next year,” Joe writes. “They’d be better serves in 2011, then, by having at least one of Hughes and Chamberlain starting in 2010” (to build innings, etc.). Yankees skipper, Joe Girardi, also made a similar point several weeks ago.

Putting both Hughes and Chamberlain would help the bullpen this season, but it would come at the expense of future starting rotations. In the end, potential long-term benefits, especially with regards to young pitchers, should trump the short-term stuff, right (I say that, but it does not always occur—see Joba Chamberlain’s emergence in 2007)?

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Via Bryan Hoch, the Yankees have traded right-handed reliever, Edwar Ramirez, to the Texas Rangers for “cash considerations.” Edwar was recently designated for assignment in order to make room on the roster for Chan Ho Park. The slender 28-year old ends his disappointing New York tenure with a 5.22 ERA (ERA+ of 85) and 1.955 WHIP over 98 1/3 innings pitched (his K/9 of 10.6 was a bright spot).

Pete Caldera of the Bergen Record caught up with Brett Gardner after yesterday’s game against the Twins at Hammond Field – a game in which Gardner bunted for a single and subsequently outran a pickle between first and second (he got back to first safely) – and, naturally, the conversation the turned to Gardner’s productive base running.

“I don’t like getting out when I’m hitting, but… stealing bases, I take a lot of pride in,” said Gardner. “You don’t want to just go out there and run. You’ve got to know who’s on the mound, know who’s at the plate and try to pick your spots.” While Gardner was referring solely to his love of the stolen base in that comment to Caldera, in general, he was just an effective base runner while on base last year, advancing when he had to on balls on the ground, in the air, past the catcher, etc. Though I have discussed his stellar speed score in the past, another number, Gardner’s EqBRR – a value that measures a player’s base running contributions in runs – is certainly worth noting. Gardner’s EqBRR in 2009 was 4.9, the eleventh best mark in all of baseball. That’s basically half a win (10 runs equal a win). Mind you, Gardner accomplished this feat with very limited playing time, therefore, I expect him to better his EqBRR this season.

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