On Monday, I widened my scope on baseball and listed some players to watch for the NL West. Today, I’m gonna run down the not-too-highly-regarded National League Central Division. Despite producing a World Series winner recently–the 2006 Cardinals–fans, especially those of the AL East tend to think of the NL Central as one of the weakest divisions in the game. Regardless, there’s still some good talent there.

Let’s start, as we did with the NL West, with the 2009 division winner, the Cardinals. The guy we need to watch here is rather obvious: Colby Rasmus. As a rookie in ‘09, he put up “meh” numbers at the plate overall–a .311 wOBA–but his IsoP was a respectable .156. His fielding in center field was also impressive, as he posted a 13.4 UZR/150 in 124 games. In 2010, we should watch for Colby to continue his impressive fielding and also to improve on his hitting. He’s projected to wOBA anywhere from .329 (Marcel) to .343 (CHONE). Those numbers may not be “blow-you-away”, but paired with his fielding, they would make him about a three win player.

For the second place Cubs, there are two guys upon whom to keep an eye. The first is an old friend: Xavier Nady. After what was essentially a career year in ‘08, Nady missed most of 2009 with an elbow injury and is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. The list of position players coming back from a second TJS is rather small, so it will be very interesting to see how Xavier fares this year.

The second Cub to watch is Geovany Soto. After an impressive Rookie of the Year season in 2008, Soto disappointed in 2009. While the peripherals were pretty solid–.103 IsoD, .163 IsoP–his raw numbers were pretty bad: .218/.321/.381. Part of this could’ve been bad luck. His BABIP in 2008 was a robust .332, but was a meager .246 in 2009. Gevoany had a slight dip in Line Drive percentage and a slight uptick in Ground Ball percentage in 2009, and his Fly Ball percentage stayed essentially the same. While the rise in ground balls might suggest more hits (ground balls are more likely to sneak through the infield than fly balls are to drop in the outfield), it appears that they were gobbled up by infielders, which obviously led to more outs, as did the slight fall in line drives. If those numbers can rebound, it’s possible that the Cubs’ backstop will have another strong season.

Moving to Milwaukee, we move to the left side of the infield. With the trade of J.J. Hardy to the Twins, young Alcides Escobar will man shortstop for the Brew Crew. In 2009, he hit .304/.333/.381 in 38 games (134 PAs). Escobar is very fast and if he improves his patience at the plate a bit and plays well in the field, he’ll be a solid player for the Brewers in 2010.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto turned some head last year after a second place ROY finish in ‘08. He pounded the ball in ‘09–.303/.414/.567–and after dealing with an anxiety issue, he seems poised to pick up in 2010 where he left off. He hit 25 home runs last year and playing in Cincy, he’s definitely got a chance to crack thirty in 2010. First base is already rich with talent–Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Youkilis–and Joey Votto is ready to climb into the ranks of a top first baseman in the Major Leagues.

The Astros don’t really have much going for them. There isn’t much exciting young talent patrolling Houston, so I’m going to go with the vet: Lance Berkman. I pick Fat Elvis for a simple reason: I don’t think we realize how good this dude has been in his career. His line sits at .299/.412/.555/.967/147+. In an 11 season career, he’s gone at least .300/.400/.500 seven times and has had an OBP of at least .420 four times. Last year was a “down” year for Berkman–.274/.399/.509 and his OPS+ was “only” 139. It will be interesting to see how Berkman recovers. This year, and the next ones, will be crucial in cementing his legacy. If there is a quick decline–unlikely–it may rob him of Hall of Fame inclusion. If he picks it back up–or just stays at his current pace–Berkman should be destined for Cooperstown.

Pittsburgh, baseball wise, doesn’t usually have much to look forward to. However, Andrew McCutchen could change that. He was very impressive in his rookie season–11.0% BB rate, .185 IsoP, .368 wOBA, 128 wRC+–and we should all be looking to see what he builds on in 2010. We’ve likely got a budding star on our hands and even if it’s out of a misplaced, and probably inappropriate, sense of pity, it’s nice to see the Pirates have a young star they’ve developed on the rise.

Yesterday in the comments of Chris’s article on Brian Cashman and Kei Igawa, a discussion about whom the Yankees have traded in the past two seasons started. I’m of the opinion that with a few exceptions, the players Brian Cashman has traded have been nothing incredibly special and losing them will not hurt the team in the long term. So, let’s take a look at the last year and a half or so of Brian Cashman’s trades to see what the Yankees gave up.

Let’s start with the “deadline” deal of Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, and Daniel McCutchen for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. What did the Yankees give up here? With the exception of Tabata, nothing special. Though Ohlendorf pitched well for the Pirates in 2009, he would not have played a big role for the 2009 Yankees and likely would have had just as small a role for the 2010 Yankees. Karstens did poorly in 39 games–13 starts–with the Bucs. McCutchen held his own (98 ERA+) and showed decent control (2.97 BB/9) in ‘09, but like the other two pitchers in this deal, he’d have no real place on the Yankees moving forward. There are plenty of guys ahead of him.

Jose Tabata was really the only player of consequence the Yankees forfeited in this deal with the Pirates. At the time of the trade, his OPS in the Eastern League was a meager .630. He raked once joining Altoona (.964), but 2009 was less spectacular (.763 OPS between AA and AAA). In a system that’s hurting for position player prospects, losing Tabata hurt, but Jose’s production had dropped year to year and level to level with the Yankees and there were apparently character issues. Perhaps all he needed was a change of scenery. It’s worth noting that Tabata’s star has taken a bit of a hit in recent years; he was rated the 27th best prospect in baseball pre-2007, the #37 pre-2008, and the #75 pre-2009.

The next trade of any importance was the December 2008 trade fleecing of Kenny Williams in the Nick Swisher deal. Cashman traded away Jeff Marquez–who’d seemingly stalled in his development and subsequently bombed with the Sox AAA team in 2009–Wilson Betemit–who was eventually DFA’d–and Jhonny Nunez who did poorly in a 5.2 inning stint with the Sox, but performed very well in the minors. This deal was absolutely great for the Yankees. They bought low on a very good cost controlled player and payed an incredibly small price.

In February of last year, Cashman traded Chase Wright to the Brewers for Eric Fryer; Fryer was eventually included with Casey Erickson in a deal for Eric Hinske. While Hinske didn’t have a huge impact on the Yankees, he added much more than either player would have now, or in the future. It’s also worth noting that the Pirates paid for Hinske’s time with the Yankees.

In other relatively minor trades, Cashman traded Chase Weems to the Reds for Jerry Hairston, Jr., who proved useful off the bench down the stretch and in the playoffs. Again, what Hairston added last year was more than Weems would likely add in the future. Weems would have been stuck behind any number of Yankee catching prospects and it’s likely that he’d never even make the Major League team.

For literally nothing but money, Brian acquired Chad Gaudin, who could be useful as a swingman out of the bullpen in 2010.

A brief review: so far out of these trades, the only remotely useful piece given up was Jose Tabata, and he was likely still at least a year and a half away from being in the Majors at the time of his trade.

The trades of which we’re unsure are the ones made in this offseason. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t judge them now.

The first trade made in 2010 was trading Brian Bruney to the Nationals for a player to be named later, Jamie Hoffmann. It appears that the Yankees grew tired of giving the oft-injured and inconsistent Bruney second chances and tried to turn him into a useful bench piece. If Hoffmann doesn’t make the team and must be returned to the Dodgers, as he’s a Rule V pick, then this trade looks a little worse. If he does stick with the team, this trade looks about equal: marginal piece for marginal piece.

This post is running a bit long and the other, more “major” players traded early in 2010 require a separate post that I’ll put up tomorrow. That one will feature my thoughts on Phil Coke, Mike Dunn, Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Kennedy, and Austin Jackson.

According to Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown, the Chicago Cubs have signed former Yankee, Xavier Nady, to a one-year deal. He will likely serve as outfield insurance but will also be a right-handed platoon option, spelling Kosuke Fukudome against left-handers.

How does this affect the Yankees’ pursuit of a right-handed bat? Well, the Yankees really wanted Nady, however, he priced himself out of the team’s budget. Jon Heyman says the deal is for $3.3M, but there are an additional $2M in incentives that could be obtained based on games played. If that’s the case, I can see why the Yankees chose to avoid Nady as he could cost over $5M. However, if Nady gets $3.3M guaranteed, there is no way Damon will settle for $2M from the Yankees, especially since Nady and Damon share the same agent in Scott Boras. The Yankees would have to offer at least $5M, plus incentives, in order to keep Damon around.

The good news is that with Nady on board, the Cubbies won’t be re-signing Reed Johnson, making him a bigger target for Brian Cashman to pursue (assuming Damon is too pricey).

In addition to Nady being removed from the free agent market, the Oakland Athletics have signed Ben Sheets to a one-year, $10 million deal. Oakland likely overpaid to get him – $10 million is a lot for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown in a game since 2008 – but it’s a good signing since they had money to spend. This move, like the Nady deal, affects the Yankees’ outfield search in that the A’s may no longer be interested in Johnny Damon. Buster Olney writes that the “Oakland-Damon dialogue is continuing,” even after the addition of Sheets for $10 million, however, it just doesn’t seem like a fit given Oakland’s current roster and spending limitations.

Here are a few quick outfield-related items on the day:

• Scott Boras says that his client, Xavier Nady, will be ready for spring training.
• In the same FOX Sports article, we learn that the Cubs are interested in Nady.
• Mark Bowman thinks that the Braves may also have an interest in signing Nady.
• Mark Topkin writes that the Yankees and the Cubs are both in on Rocco Baldelli.

I still believe most of the clubs in search of outfield help, including the Yankees, are waiting for Johnny Damon to sign. Then, once he is officially off the market, the lower-level players like Nady and Baldelli will finally find a home.

Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images

In the last two days, we’ve seen both Mark DeRosa and Jason Bay agree to terms with the Giants and Mets respectively. While the Giants will play DeRosa at third, they could still use him in left field and other places. Bay will obviously play left field for the Mets, earning at least $66MM over at least four years. That leaves two fewer landing spots for Damon than there were this time last week.

What does this mean for the “former” Yankee outfielder? The meaning is a likely return to Pinstripes for Johnny. His options are dwindling rapidly, and the Yankees do not appear to be major players for the other remaining big-ticket position-playing free-agent, Matt Holliday. I’ve already discusssed the option of Jermaine Dye (ugh) and since then, that “rumor” has been thankfully debunked.

This basically leaves three choices: try and bring back Damon at the right price, go get a small-time outfielder to be part of a left-field platoon with Brett Gardner, or just stand pat with Gardner and Jamie Hoffmann as the outfielders.

The best choice performance wise is probably the first choice: bringing back Damon. While his defense was poor last year, his offense helped make up for it and Damon was still worth 3.0 WAR. But, can we realistically expect Damon to be worth that much when he’s a year older both on the field and at the plate? Can we also expect his price to come down? It seems as though Damon’s shown little willingness to let his price drop. If he doesn’t come at the right price, the Yankees will definitely pass.

Cost wise, the third choice is clearly the best. Gardner and Hoffmann are very inexpensive, but of course, they can definitely not be counted on to produce. If he doesn’t do well in Spring Training, Hoffmann may not even be on the team.

Perhaps, then, the Yankees will need to strike a balance between the two and sign someone at a lower cost to platoon with Gardner. There are a few candidates, including Reed Johnson. Versus left handed pitchers in his career, Johnson has a career line of .313/.378/.463/.841 with a ridiculous 23.3 UZR/150 in 434 games in left field, which is where he’s spent most of his time. A Gardner/Johnson platoon could prove effective. The other possible candidate is Xavier Nady, who also hits lefties well in his career: .308/.383/.471/.854 and he also sports a positive UZR in LF, at 1.8/150. However, it appears he has priced himself out of the Yankees market.

All three of these options are viable. The first and third would definitely help the Yankees, and the second wouldn’t sink them completely–though it wouldn’t be all that great, either.

So, readers of TYU, what do you think the Yankees should do?

While today seemed to be a fairly quiet day in the Yankee Universe, a number of reports surfaced suggesting the pool of left fielders being considered by the Yankees is shrinking. First, from Ken Rosenthal, we learn that Mark Derosa is on his way to San Francisco:

The San Francisco Giants are closing in on a two-year deal with Mark DeRosa, according to a major-league source. The Giants are expected to use DeRosa at third base and also as a super-utility man who could fill in at multiple positions.

Then Jon Heyman nixed Jermaine Dye:

#yanks dont appear to be in on jermaine dye. #rangers, #cubs, #giants, #braves, #angels, etc. more likely.

Finally, Bryan Hoch reports that Xavier Nady has priced himself out of the Yankees budget:

Right now, it appears the hold-up would be more financial than physical. General manager Brian Cashman said on Monday that Nady’s price is above the Yankees’ current budget, which explains why they have not been seriously linked to him while some other clubs have.

I am curious to know exactly how much Nady is asking for, and Cashman’s statement may very well just be a negotiating ploy. However, with options seemingly disappearing by the hour, names like Reed Johnson, Austin Kearns, and possibly Johnny Damon become more likely. Might the Yankees and Damon come to a compromise on a 2 year deal? I would certainly not be shocked. Who do you think Cashman should target for LF?

(All links courtesy of i-yankees.com)

As explained by Tim Dierkes (MLBTR), “[f]or a team to receive draft pick compensation for a departing free agent, arbitration first must be offered to that player. The risk is that the player will accept, and the team will be stuck with that player on a non-guaranteed contract for 2010.” Last winter, in order to sidestep fiscal “risk” and reallocate funds to effectively improve their ball club (e.g., CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, A.J. Burnett), the Yankees chose not to offer arbitration to any of their ranked free agents. In a depressed market, the move, which was originally criticized by many fans and writers, was ultimately a wise one, as most players, even those with plenty to offer — see, Bobby Abreu — struggled to find lucrative contracts on the open market. Had the Yankees made arbitration offers in the hopes that they would later receive compensatory picks upon their free agents signing elsewhere, perhaps those same free agents would have accepted and limited Brian Cashman’s ability to better equip the team for 2009 (again, he needed payroll space).

However, this winter, with fewer holes to fill, a thinner free agent class, and a championship caliber core still present in the Bronx, the situation has evolved and the Yankees could very well offer arbitration to their ranked free agents rather than decline to do so. In fact, the club’s arbitration decisions will be announced later today, therefore, we won’t have to wait long to hear about who was offered arbitration and who was not. While Xavier Nady, a Type-B free agent, probably won’t receive such an offer due to his injury-marred campaign, his cost, and the presence of Nick Swisher, Johnny Damon and Andy Pettitte are two players that could be considered for offers, as the Yankees reportedly want both of them to return for next season.

In Damon’s case, after earning $13M in 2009, if the Yankees were to extend an arbitration offer to him, following an arbitration hearing (or perhaps the two parties will agree to a deal), he would likely receive a figure close to $16M in 2010. While this is above market value — overpaying an aging left fielder with poor defensive credentials certainly is not ideal — it does provide a significant benefit in terms of short-term roster flexibility (in essence, the Yankees would be overpaying for that flexibility). Based on published reports, however, it seems as though Damon, along with his agent Scott Boras, would be displeased with a one-year deal. The two appear to be seeking a 3-4 year contract in order to capitalize on Damon’s productive year, therefore, it is definitely not a foregone conclusion that Damon would accept an arbitration offer, as he is much more likely to reject such a proposal. As a Type-A free agent, if Damon does, indeed, decline the organization’s arbitration offer, they would subsequently receive two draft picks (first and second round) from his future team. That’s obviously not a bad thing, although the Yankees would still be in need of a new left fielder.

With Andy Pettitte, the arbitration decision could be a lot clearer. While Pettitte was not content with having to accept an incentive-laded deal (roster and performance bonuses) with a “meager” base salary of $5.5M for 2009, he did end up winning most of those incentives and earned $11M, in total. Due to his impressive 3.3 WAR performance this season, one that was worth $15M according to FanGraphs (about $4.5M per win), the Yankees may inevitably choose to offer Pettitte arbitration. Though I am uncertain of the manner in which roster and performance bonuses are taken into account when negotiating arbitration offers, I would assume that Pettitte could amass more than the $11M he earned with the Bombers, meaning that his 2010 salary, after the arbitration process (agreeing to a deal or attending a hearing), would inch closer to $13.5M. With a state of ambiguity surrounding the team’s starting rotation, the Yankees would be particularly pleased if Pettitte were to accept that offer. If Pettitte, a Type-B free agent, rejects the team’s arbitration overtures and signs elsewhere — an outcome that is thought to be unlikely — the Yankees would garner a supplemental draft pick from the lefty’s new team.

So, while we wait for today’s arbitration announcement, which won’t arrive until later tonight, what do you think? Could Damon receive an offer due to the flexibility such a deal would provide the Yankees (collecting two prospects would be great, too)? Given the team’s pitching needs, maybe Andy Pettitte should be offered arbitration (perhaps you believe both players should receive arbitration offers)? Will either player be presented with offers or will we see a repeat of last winter’s strategy? For the record, both Tom Singer (MLB) and George King (NY Post) have reported that the Yankees are unlikely to offer any of their free agents arbitration.

Despite a productive partnership, once the ‘09 season is completed, the Yankees will likely cut ties with current DH, Hideki Matsui. The the only reason for the relationship’s end is Matsui’s lack of positional flexibility—that and age. With several large contracts on the books and a number of aging players on the roster, the Yankees don’t want another aging player clogging up the DH spot for the better part of the season. Matsui’s knees prevent him from playing the outfield, even sporadically. Thus, the revolving DH idea has gained a footing.

However, while it’s nice to filter your veterans through the DH role in order to provide them with ample resting opportunities, by losing a regular DH, especially one as good as Hideki Matsui, you create a significant void in your lineup. If your bench is constructed well, then perhaps a team can absorb such a loss, since no regular DH means more playing time for the part-timers. If not, though, the entire offense begins to suffer. For that reason, I believe that the Yankees should, in fact, bring in a new DH, except they should bring in one that can help them on the field a bit, too.

Here are a few options that I think fit the bill:

1. Nick Johnson – Johnson, 31, a former Yankee, would be a nice addition to the lineup. Between the Marlins and the Nationals, he is hitting .301/.427/.423 with 8 HR and 61 RBI. Although his power has diminished, his eye remains a force as he can still get on base with the best of them (17.1 BB%). He would wear the team’s offensive style pretty well. Johnson has dealt with injury issues his entire career, including this season, when he was placed on the DL with hamstring problems. However, when he’s right he can be an extremely productive player. He’s having his worst defensive year at first base, but it could be an aberration or injury-related given Johnson’s historically positive ratings there. If he signs with the Yankees, he can DH to stay fresh and help in the infield when Tex needs a day off. In an effort to keep Johnson healthy, the Yankees could also choose to rest him throughout the season, which would allow others to slot in at DH from time to time.

2. Adam LaRoche - While I think Johnson is probably a better fit, LaRoche could also be a good DH candidate. He has his fair share of problems, in that he’s better known as a second half hitter, he struggles against lefties, and he’s not a particularly good defender, but, as a DH, two of these issues can be resolved (the Yankees can sit him against some lefties so that others can DH for the day). Between the Pirates, Red Sox and now the Braves, LaRoche is hitting .273/.348/.489 and has 23 HR. While powerful, he doesn’t do anything particularly well—he doesn’t walk much and he strikes out a lot (his 0.48 BB/K is the second worst in the NL)—yet his value would be boosted, I think, if given a DH role. Plus, LaRoche will turn 30 in November, so he’s surprisingly young. The Yankees can afford to sit him against some lefties, as I mentioned before, which would open up DH opportunities for A-Rod, Jeter, Damon (if he returns) and Posada. Of course, Teixeira would be well rested, too, since LaRoche can play first.

3. Bobby Abreu – Surprised? Bobby Abreu was one of the best free agent signings this offseason, given his price ($5 million) and his overall value (2.6 WAR). He’s still an awful outfielder, but he’s hitting .299/.399/.435 and has been a force in LA’s lineup. By giving him a DH role, the Yankees get a player capable of stealing 20 bases, driving in 100 runs, and, in Yankee Stadium, maybe Abreu can hit 18-20 homers. Of course, we know what Abreu can do, firsthand. He can help out in right field a few days a month so that the Yankees can rest others and Girardi can sit him based on matchups, so that the others can DH. In terms of Abreu’s fielding, the defensive lapses would be manageable as long as he produces offensively. Abreu may also be a shorter commitment than Johnson or LaRoche, given his age (although he may earn more per year).

These are three options that work, in some way, for the reasons I’ve provided. Each player I’ve listed is somewhat limited in their positional flexibility—Johnson, LaRoche and Abreu only play one position a piece—yet, in terms of fielding value and versatility, they offer more than what Hideki Matsui did as a DH only. Abreu and Johnson seem like the best fits with LaRoche being an outside option. One player that people might mention that I have not is Vladimir Guerrero, although he may be far too similar to Hideki Matsui (why not resign Matsui). The Yankees could also try and bring back Xavier Nady who can play first and right field (health permitting). What do you think? If you don’t like these guys—Johnson, Abreu and LaRoche—are there any other players you’d like to see the Yankees pursue for DH?

Remember the cries of outrage when the Yankees traded for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for a package of prospects last year? We heard the usual reactions of how ‘it’s bad for Baseball’ and ‘the rich get richer’ from many of the usual suspects. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times has a new piece up in his BATS Blog looking at that deal from the perspective of a year later. He writes:

PITTSBURGH – Ross Ohlendorf has had a breakthrough season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, going 11-9 with a 3.97 E.R.A. for a last-place team.

It was a move that seemed to help the Yankees at the time, boosting their chances in the pennant race. But the Pirates are enjoying the long-term benefits now. Karstens is out with a back injury after going 3-4 with a 5.03 earned run average, but McCutchen made his major league debut in Cincinnati last Monday, allowing three runs on five hits in six innings.

He goes on to say McCutchen figures to be in the mix for Pittsburgh’s rotation next year while for Jose Tabata the trade has served as a wake-up call. According to McCutchen, Tabata is playing with a renewed focus and hustle he often didn’t display in his time with the Yankees. He’s hitting .296 with five homers and a .360 on-base percentage this season for the Pirates AA and AAA affiliates. At 21 years old, he’s still a baby and still has years to reach his full potential, but by having reached AAA at that young age, a fast start for Tabata in 2010 could very well land him on the big league club early next year. Players who make their major league debuts that young are often elite talents, so his MLB potential remains vast. Personally, I thought the Yanks had rushed him through the system and it showed in the results he had in 2008 in Trenton. After being traded, the Pirates sent him all the way down to rookie ball initially (most likely for roster reasons) where he seemed to regain his swing and he had an outstanding final month of the season for their AA Altoona Curve team.

From the Yankee perspective, the trade has been a bust. It was a win-now move, and they missed the playoffs last year. They bought high on Nady, in the midst of his best season batting .330/.383/.535. (.919 OPS) with the Pirates last year. His production last year dropped off with the Yankees, putting up a line of .268/.320/.474 (.794 OPS) after being traded. In 2009, he hurt his elbow and required Tommy John surgery (his 2nd) and has been out since April 14th.

The Damaso Marte part of the deal has also yielded disappointing results from the Yankee end. Thought at the time to have been the Yanks long-needed answer to the Lefty reliever AND primary set up man problem, Marte followed Nady’s lead and performed poorly with the team. With the Pittsburgh Pirates last year he was 4-0  with a 3.47 ERA, in 46.2 innings he allowed 38 Hits and 16 Walks while striking out 47 (1.157 WHIP/ ERA+119 ). Since coming over to the Yankees,  in 2 seasons he has gone 2-4 with a 6.43 ERA. Pitching just 28 innings in over a calendar year, he has allowed 20 Runs 14 Walks and 4 HRs (1.321 WHIP/ ERA+69 ). He also missed much of 2009 with a shoulder injury. So again the Yanks bought high on an NL player and have yet to see him produce similar results in pinstripes.

The rich got richer? Bad for Baseball? I’m sure the same folks who were saying that last year will be issuing their retractions any day now.

Tyler Kepner recently wrote a blog post on Ross Ohlendorf and the trade that sent him to the Pirates, and Rob Neyer quickly caught on and riffed off of it, focusing instead on Jose Tabata:

Granted, the equation would look quite a bit different if Marte hadn’t fallen apart the moment the Yankees got him, and if Nady hadn’t missed most of this season with a serious elbow injury.

But even if both players had done exactly what we’d expected — Marte a serviceable lefty reliever, Nady an average (at best) American League outfielder — this deal still would have been a steal for the Pirates.
Or it would probably have been a steal, anyway. That’s what happens when you trade two marginal veterans for a quartet of talented young players. Ohlendorf’s good enough to start for the Yankees, right now. Karstens may yet find himself as a reliever. McCutchen may soon be as good as Ohlendorf. And Tabata … well, he’s the real prize, isn’t he?

Between the ages of 16 and 19, Tabata was routinely the youngest player in his league, and he routinely batted .300 (while drawing plenty of walks for a teenager). Everybody said Tabata couldn’t miss. Said he was the Yankees’ best prospect. Said they wouldn’t trade him, because he was their Center Fielder of the Future.

And then he got off to a lousy start in Class AA last year. He was still just a teenager, and probably was yet again the youngest player in his league. But he got off to a lousy start, and the Yankees needed Xavier Nady. Well, they didn’t need Xavier Nady. Nobody in the history of baseball has needed a player like Xavier Nady. (Not until after the fact, anyway. If the Yankees had qualified for the playoffs last season, afterward it would have seemed like they had indeed needed him.)

So the Yankees essentially traded Jose Tabata, so recently their very best prospect, to the Pirates for Xavier Nady. Someday, historians will read that sentence and snicker.

I love Rob, but there is a whole lot of WRONG in this little blogpost. Firstly, the idea that no one ever needs Xavier Nady is a bit silly, in that Nady is not a replacement level player, just a league average player. He was better than anything the Yankees had readily available, and therefore represented an improvement for the club. For a team that was in a playoff race at the time, the marginal improvement from Justin Christian to Xavier Nady was significant, and I am not sure how Rob can represent it as being anything but a net positive. Adding a lefty reliever like Marte was similarly a drastic improvement over the options the Yankees had at that moment, although the marginal upgrade was likely less than the one gained from adding an everyday player like Nady.

Additionally, let’s not rush to anoint these “talented young players” as stars quite yet. McCutchen has made one start and profiles as, at-best, a back of the rotation guy, while Karstens is the very definition of replacement level. Ohlendorf has improved, but he still has an ERA just under 4 in the AL Central, with a FIP of 4.74, and a K/9 of 5.57. He may turn into a good pitcher, but the performances of Brad Penny and John Smoltz in the NL after being awful in the AL East suggests that the level of competition is incredibly different in the two leagues. The three pitchers are exactly the kind of assets an organization with plenty of pitching in its system should be giving up to get pieces that can help in a pennant race. The key here is Tabata, who took a step forward this year but still has yet to flash the power that would make him an elite prospect.

While the Yankees were quick to give up on Tabata, it is important to note that he had a huge attitude problem with the Yankees that many felt would torpedo his career. Furthermore, you need to give up something of value to complete most trades, and Tabata represented that value here. He had enough question marks about reaching his talent that it made for a good gamble by the Yankees. Most analysts felt that the Yankees made a good or even great deal, and cited the unknowns regarding Tabata as their primary reasons for reaching that conclusion. Just to quote one pundit at the time of the trade:

I wasn’t thrilled with the Xavier Nady deal, from the Pirates’ perspective. Jose Tabata’s star seems to have fallen (though of course he’s still young).

Who said that? Why, Rob Neyer, of course.