Yesterday in the comments of Chris’s article on Brian Cashman and Kei Igawa, a discussion about whom the Yankees have traded in the past two seasons started. I’m of the opinion that with a few exceptions, the players Brian Cashman has traded have been nothing incredibly special and losing them will not hurt the team in the long term. So, let’s take a look at the last year and a half or so of Brian Cashman’s trades to see what the Yankees gave up.
Let’s start with the “deadline” deal of Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, and Daniel McCutchen for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. What did the Yankees give up here? With the exception of Tabata, nothing special. Though Ohlendorf pitched well for the Pirates in 2009, he would not have played a big role for the 2009 Yankees and likely would have had just as small a role for the 2010 Yankees. Karstens did poorly in 39 games–13 starts–with the Bucs. McCutchen held his own (98 ERA+) and showed decent control (2.97 BB/9) in ‘09, but like the other two pitchers in this deal, he’d have no real place on the Yankees moving forward. There are plenty of guys ahead of him.
Jose Tabata was really the only player of consequence the Yankees forfeited in this deal with the Pirates. At the time of the trade, his OPS in the Eastern League was a meager .630. He raked once joining Altoona (.964), but 2009 was less spectacular (.763 OPS between AA and AAA). In a system that’s hurting for position player prospects, losing Tabata hurt, but Jose’s production had dropped year to year and level to level with the Yankees and there were apparently character issues. Perhaps all he needed was a change of scenery. It’s worth noting that Tabata’s star has taken a bit of a hit in recent years; he was rated the 27th best prospect in baseball pre-2007, the #37 pre-2008, and the #75 pre-2009.
The next trade of any importance was the December 2008 trade fleecing of Kenny Williams in the Nick Swisher deal. Cashman traded away Jeff Marquez–who’d seemingly stalled in his development and subsequently bombed with the Sox AAA team in 2009–Wilson Betemit–who was eventually DFA’d–and Jhonny Nunez who did poorly in a 5.2 inning stint with the Sox, but performed very well in the minors. This deal was absolutely great for the Yankees. They bought low on a very good cost controlled player and payed an incredibly small price.
In February of last year, Cashman traded Chase Wright to the Brewers for Eric Fryer; Fryer was eventually included with Casey Erickson in a deal for Eric Hinske. While Hinske didn’t have a huge impact on the Yankees, he added much more than either player would have now, or in the future. It’s also worth noting that the Pirates paid for Hinske’s time with the Yankees.
In other relatively minor trades, Cashman traded Chase Weems to the Reds for Jerry Hairston, Jr., who proved useful off the bench down the stretch and in the playoffs. Again, what Hairston added last year was more than Weems would likely add in the future. Weems would have been stuck behind any number of Yankee catching prospects and it’s likely that he’d never even make the Major League team.
For literally nothing but money, Brian acquired Chad Gaudin, who could be useful as a swingman out of the bullpen in 2010.
A brief review: so far out of these trades, the only remotely useful piece given up was Jose Tabata, and he was likely still at least a year and a half away from being in the Majors at the time of his trade.
The trades of which we’re unsure are the ones made in this offseason. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t judge them now.
The first trade made in 2010 was trading Brian Bruney to the Nationals for a player to be named later, Jamie Hoffmann. It appears that the Yankees grew tired of giving the oft-injured and inconsistent Bruney second chances and tried to turn him into a useful bench piece. If Hoffmann doesn’t make the team and must be returned to the Dodgers, as he’s a Rule V pick, then this trade looks a little worse. If he does stick with the team, this trade looks about equal: marginal piece for marginal piece.
This post is running a bit long and the other, more “major” players traded early in 2010 require a separate post that I’ll put up tomorrow. That one will feature my thoughts on Phil Coke, Mike Dunn, Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Kennedy, and Austin Jackson.
MLBTR reports that the Yankees will acquire Javy Vazquez for Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino. They will pay the entirety of Vazquez’s 11.5 million dollar salary.
I’m at work, so this will have to be pretty brief.
Melky leaving clears the way for some kind of left field situation involving Brett Gardner. Dunn being traded pretty much commits the Yankees to only having one lefty out of the bullpen. Arodys Vizcaino is a very good prospect, but also an entirely expendable one.
Overall, its a great trade for the Yankees. Vazquez was an ace last year, and will be at the least very healthy. He was 4th in the majors in strikeouts last year (his 3rd straight year with at least 200 Ks), and has a lot of experience working in the NL. While new Yankee Stadium won’t be kind to his homer-happy ways, I think that we can expect a much better go-around this time with Vazquez.
And the Yankees could easily have their young players replaced in the draft next year. If he has a decent year, he’s a pretty good pick to be offered and decline arbitration. Two draft picks could come the Yankees way, which should be able to find someone of Vizcaino’s caliber.
The Yankee pitching staff looks pretty set. Now, will they stand pat at left field? I feel like a Johnny Damon reconciliation is coming. However, if the Yankees are indeed on a budget, how much more is Hal Steinbrenner willing to give Cashman? RAB has our payroll at 208 million now.
The Yankees’ acquisition of Curtis Granderson yesterday obviously affects their other outfielders and free agents Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. ESPN’s Buster Olney says that if the Yanks re-sign Damon, they’re more likely to trade Nick Swisher. He finds it “increasingly unlikely” that they re-sign Matsui, whether or not Damon returns. Olney doesn’t mention it, but we also have to consider the possibility Melky Cabrera is dealt. Damon, for his part, still thinks there’s a window for him to return (talking to Tyler Kepner of the New York Times).
Trade Nick Swisher? I’m calling BS on Buster Olney here. Swisher was a very productive right fielder this season, is under contract for two more years, and the Yankees have no obvious replacement for him. Melky Cabrera would be a huge downgrade, Johnny Damon can’t throw in left field, and Curtis Granderson will play center.
Nick Swisher is also probably still underrated throughout the league. his .249 batting average obscures his value, and at the very least would not be a sell-high candidate. Therefore, the only reason to trade him would be as part of a mega-deal for someone else. The Yankees aren’t selling him for prospects. They aren’t dumping payroll. Sure, maybe the Blue Jays are mildly interested in Nick Swisher, but do you really think they want him in a Roy Halladay deal?
Tim Dierkes definitely has it right when he says that Melky Cabrera is the more likely player to be traded.
Sorry Buster, but I’m not buying it. You might want to find another source or two.
Lots of opinions floating around the blogosphere.
Greg Fertel (gets the prize for best write-up and analysis of the night):
Granderson looks tuned for a big improvement a la Nick Swisher in 2010. From the Yankees’ perspective, how could you not like this move? They added a 29-year-old center fielder with plus defense and power who is only making $25 million over the next three seasons. Put his bat and the new Yankee Stadium together, and we could be in for some gaudy numbers.
A+ for the Yankees, who continue to show that they know what they’re doing. Not a bad deal for Detroit, who needed to save some cash. But man, I’m sorry for D’Backs fans, who just saw their team screw up.
From the Yankees perspective, this deal is almost too good to be true. Heading into his age 29 season, Granderson is a legitimate +4 win center fielder signed to a bargain contract for the next four years. I ranked him as the 22nd most valuable asset in terms of trade value in baseball over the summer, and the Yankees are getting him for a variety pack of role players. He instantly makes their team better, giving them a legitimate all-star center fielder who should thrive in Yankee Stadium. For as much as the Yankees have a payroll advantage, they continue to win because Brian Cashman targets the right players. Granderson is a fantastic acquisition for them.
“New York has to try to get better on every front because every team is going to keep gunning for them,” Damon said. “I think having a guy like Granderson, who has the potential to be a really good player, if you can pick up a guy like that and not lose too many people from your big-league club, that’s a positive.”
As unpleasant as giving up Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson is, the Tigers did manage to net themselves a handful of players who will be able to help in 2010. For the most part these aren’t prospects where fans need to hope that they pan out. The Tigers added a starting pitcher, 2 bullpen arms, and hopefully a centerfielder for the near future.
While initial fan reaction seems to have been overwhelmingly negative, thus far, put me in the ‘meh’ category as far as our poll goes. The plus side of the deal is that we, effectively, turned a reliever in Schlereth, into a starter in Kennedy. This effectively fills a hole in the rotation, at relatively little additional cost: Jackson is arb-eligible, but will certainly be cheaper than a free-agent. The negative side, is that we swapped about five years of control over Scherzer, for two years of Jackson – and, in addition, Kennedy has not exactly shown an impressive track record at the major-league level.
Ian Kennedy is also underrated. His minor league track record is pristine, as was his health before his fluke of all flukes injury in the spring. 15 MLB starts haven’t been kind to him, but most of them came in 2008, when mechanical problems hurt his control and velocity. In the NL West, I bet he shines. But I’ve also always believed in him more than anyone else.
For the Yankees, they were given the rare chance to significantly improve their Major League team in both the near and long terms while not giving up any immediately ready MLB players. Austin Jackson may be a great prospect, but in the best world he’ll be about as good as Granderson is now, and the Yankees will hold Granderson for at least 3 more seasons. They did what they do best: leveraged a substantial budget to take a now-costly player off a poorer team’s hands. It worked, and we now have a quality center fielder in his prime for the first time since David Cone was pitching for the Yankees.
My last thought: I feel bad for Tigers fans. Granderson was a serious fan favorite, and the team was only forced to trade him because he is one of their only movable contracts. They are stuck paying 10 million or more to Carlos Guillen, Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson, Jeremy Bonderman and Magglio Ordonez, all of which were immediate dead weight on the roster after being signed. A friend of mine convinced me that a Miguel Cabrera trade is likely. If they do that, we should be on the look out, because the Red Sox could be interested.
From Pete Caldera (NJ.com):
“My work’s going to start again tomorrow,” general manager Brian Cashman said outside the home clubhouse early Thursday morning, while players and staff were still celebrating their World Series-clinching victory over Philadelphia in Game 6. “That’s the way it is in the front office.”
Caldera goes on to outline the specific areas that the Yankees will have to address over the winter, such as starting pitching, the Matsui versus Damon issue (essentially, the left field and DH issue), and the bullpen. Sorting out their bench, which was surprisingly strong this season after a series of smart decisions, is also a priority.
Picking up where Caldera left off, Joel Sherman (NY Post) writes that most team officials he has spoken to indicate that the Yankees will likely have a low-key winter, one in which they’ll exercise financial restraint after picking up most of their expensive toys (CC, Teixeira, Burnett) a year ago. Guys like Jason Bay, John Lackey, and Matt Holliday—Sherman says the Yankees like Holliday, but could afford to pass on him (even if Boston is interested)—appear to be out of the Yankees’ price range. The last-minute Teixeira deal might have been a bank buster for Hal Steinbrenner.
To shore up their lineup, Sherman speculates that the team will push to resign Damon to a one-year deal, then possibly pursue Carl Crawford as Damon’s successor once Crawford becomes a free agent after 2010 (unless the Rays sign him to an extension). He also notes that the Yankees could dangle Robinson Cano as trade bait for another pitcher—Felix Hernandez, perhaps—although such a blockbuster seems unlikely (if Matsui signs with another team the Yankees will need to retain their offense).
Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
Once upon a time, there was a great king of a distant land called Minnesota. He stood on top of a high hill, he could make smoke come out of his hands and his name was Santana. The people from Boston, New York and Los Angeles all wanted Santana to come and become King of their lands. They offered lavish gifts, like frankincense, myrrh, and melkies, but only one of them could win his services. In the end, the people of Minnesota decided to send him to the kingdom of Queens but the people in all the other lands were left to wonder whether the people of Minnesota (otherwise known as the Billsmiths) made the right decision. “The gifts of the people of Queens were no good,” they said, “our gifts were much better.”
Now, I think, might be a good time to revisit that trade and see if the Twins were right to pick the Mets as trading partners instead of the numerous other suitors – including the Yankees. It seemed like an odd deal at the time, when many felt that Smith could have had Phil Hughes, Clay Bucholtz, Jed Lowrie, Melky Cabrera, Jon Lester, or Austin Jackson, among others. Instead, Bill Smith, the Twins first-year GM, dealt for Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Philip Humber. How are these players performing now, and did it work out for the Twins? Let’s see:
Carlos Gomez: He’s simply awful .277 wOBA: .229/.287/.337 – one of the worst hitters in the big leagues. No power, no average, no on-base. The only quality he has is speed and even that seems diminished. The Yankees would have included Brett Gardner as a(.337 wOBA: .270/.345/.379) virtual toss-in and he has similar tools but is a much, much better hitter. Melky, too, at .331 WOBA: .274/.336/.416 would have been a better choice. Austin Jackson is also likely to have a superior career. Ellsbury, as well, is a clear improvement.
Philip Humber: The, supposedly, top pitching prospect in the deal is even worse than Gomez. He has a 5.34 ERA….. IN AAA! I don’t think I’m going out on any big limb in predicting that, at almost 27 already, he’ll never be even a decent major league pitcher. Hughes is already a top, top, top 8th inning guy at only 23 and still projects as either a top-of-the-rotation guy or elite closer. Justin Masterson still projects as a mid-rotation guy and, if you compare IPK’s AAA stats, he blows Humber away at a younger age. Despite the injury, IPK has a much bigger upside right now than Humber, now that he’s returned.
Kevin Mulvey: 5-8, 3.93 ERA, 6.83 K/9 in AAA this year. Mulvey is better than Humber, but that doesn’t say much. Again, even a guy like IPK (also 24 years-old, 5-3, 2.35 ERA, 9.39 K/9 last year in AAA), who has struggled since the deal, still projects much better than Mulvey.
Deolis Guerra: 6-8, 4.89 in AA at least still has youth so, at age 20, there still is some upside. The downside is that, well, he kind of sucks. He still could put it together, but there are a million guys like this wallowing around the minors (ahemDellin Betances!).
There’s no question that minor league baseball players are notoriously hard to project, but Smith has to take some heat, here. We can’t tell, exactly, what was on the table, but he seemed to, but his statements in the press, have an axe to grind against the Yankees and possibly the Red Sox. He seemed to take a much poorer deal than he could have had, if he had courted the Yankees instead of overplaying his hand. He also made a deal, that summer, for Delmon Young, trading away talented sinkerballer, Matt Garza and stud SS, Jason Bartlett. That trade has not worked out, either, as Young has struggled (paltry .312 wOBA and terrible fielding), while Garza and Bartlett have flourished. In three short years, Smith has managed to trade away some of Terry Ryan’s (his brilliant predecessor) best acquisitions, and replace them with very, very little, indeed. It’s tough to follow a genius like Terry Ryan, but Smith seems to have proven that he has no idea how to make a big trade.
This is a guest post from contest winner Jason Gao.
Barely a week after the trade deadline is not the ideal time to analyze the trades. But fans (like me) are very prone to making snap decisions. So I will. I will look at some of the more important deadline deals, see how they’ve worked out so far, and give my biased predictions. I will only look at the deals that involved playoff contenders and aren’t really, really insignificant (like the Mark Kotsay trade).
1. Nick Johnson (Nationals) to Florida for former 1st rounder Aaron Thompson
I like prospects, minor leagues and all that, but I can’t really evaluate their performance as well. I will give you this quote from Kevin Goldstein’s Twitter, “1st round pick in ‘05; slow to develop, average stuff at best, doesn’t miss bets, maybe loogy in the end, MAYBE.” Not too flattering.
I’ll just stick to looking at Nick Johnson. When Florida acquired him, they were hoping to get a solid bat and terrific on base percentage.
Since the trade, he has hit .348/.566/.522 with 1 HR, 3 K, and 10 BB in 8 games. That is pretty darn good and the Marlins must be thrilled.
My expectations going forward:
Not that good but solid. I like the former Yankees top prospect, and a .300/.420/.520 line going forward is similar to his best seasons. This trade has little to no impact on the Yankees, as the Marlins are not that likely to make the playoffs. I just like Nick Johnson. You should, too.
2. In two separate trades, the Rockies get Joe Beimel and Rafael Betancourt for minor leaguers Connor Graham, Ryan Mattheus, and Robinson Fabian.
It’s harder for me to evaluate the relievers since I never watch Rockies games. But looking at the their stats, I’ll try my best.
Beimel: With the Nats, 3.40 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, .253 BAA, 25 K, 14 BB, 39.7 Inn. He’s a lefty, but held right-handed hitters to a .258 BAA with the Nationals. So far he’s pitched 2.7 innings with the Rockies, .111 BAA, 3.38 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, and 1 HR in 4 games. That one home run and blown save in his second Rockie outing probably didn’t endear him to the fans. Going forward, though, I expect him to pitch to a 4.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and .270 BAA. Those numbers aren’t pretty, but his home/road splits with the Nationals are even uglier. Look them up: http://tinyurl.com/mhagfd.
Betancourt: For years, this guy was a dominant set-up man for the Indians. Then came 2008, when his ERA ballooned over 5.00. In 2009, he got back on track, although not quite as dominant as before, he posted a 3.52 ERA with 32 strikeouts in just over 30 innings. He did have 15 walks, though. Since arriving in Colorado, he has been rock-solid. No runs in 6 innings, 4 strikeout, 2 walks, and 3 holds. Although it’s Coors Field, this is also the National League, so more dominance can be expected. Prediction: ERA around 2.00 with a 2.5 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio, and just over a K per inning for the rest of the season.
This trade affects the Yankees a little, as the Rockies are one of the better bets to win the Wild Card. And those two can make up a pretty solid bullpen alongside Huston Street.
3. The 4 Red Sox trades that resulted in Victor Martinez, Casey Kotchman, and Chris Duncan. Key players that were moved elsewhere are Julio Lugo and Adam LaRoche.
Duncan: I don’t really care what he does, and neither should you. Like his bro Shelley, he’s a big guy who can hit the occasional bomb, but isn’t terribly reliable for anything else other than helping out in fights. Expectations: AAAA player like Shelley. But not as cool because of his team.
Lugo: For all the crap he got in Boston, he wasn’t that bad of a hitter this year. With the Sox, he hit .284/.352/.367 with 18 K and 12 BB. This guy is a shortstop, so that isn’t horrible. Luckily for all the sadistic Yankees fans out there, like Renteria, Lugo has decided he will hit like an All-Star with the Cardinals. In 14 games and 55 at bats, he’s collected 1 homer, 5 doubles, 3 TRIPLES, and a triple slash line of .345/.383/.600. For my own pleasure, I will predict .300/.370/.470 line (like in Tampa) with 30 SB a year for the rest of his contract. I really do not like the Red Sox.
Kotchman: Acquired for fellow 1B Adam LaRoche, Kotchman is regarded as the better defender and contact hitter. No good stats to predict first basemen’s defense, but he sure hasn’t hit for contact thus far. A .111 batting average, .200 on base average, and 5:1 K:BB ratio is horrible for a supposed contact hitter. At least he had that little 2-run home run a few days ago. Because he plays for the Red Sox, I don’t expect any better in the limited playing time he will get.
LaRoche: Another guy who will let us laugh the Red Sox misfortune. You know that offense that Boston is in dire need of? They just traded it away. Since going back to the Braves, he’s hit .344/.436/.469. Theo Epstein FTW. This guy is as streaky as anyone, so I expect him to keep on this tear until the end of the year. Then, the Red Sox will trade a solid prospect for him, and he will start 2010 ice cold. And, of course, they’ll trade him again, only to have him produce another stellar second half for another team.
Martinez: OK. He’s actually good. He hit a pretty big home run (at the time). He’s got a .932 OPS with the Red Sox. But his career OPS is only .833, which is great for a catcher, but he’ll probably play 1B a lot with the Sox, so he’ll lose value. He will catch for them next year, and the media will compare him to Joe Mauer and Johnny Bench. But in reality, he’ll hit and defend more like a nearly 40 year-old Jorge Posada – just less savvy, but a lot grittier.
About six weeks ago, I wrote the following about Elijah Dukes:
The Nationals have a crowded outfield, with Josh Willingham, Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Milledge, and Dukes. Dukes seems to be the most likely to be traded, and his malcontent status is likely to keep any return for him fairly low. With the questions that the Yankees have in CF and the fact that most of their outfielders are free agents following the season, the Yankees would be well served by looking into a deal for Dukes. A deal built around Ian Kennedy may be a good starting point, with the Yankees throwing in another upper level prospect and some filler.
At the time, it seemed obvious to me that Dukes would start for the Nats, with Dunn going to 1B and Kearns headed to the bench. However, being that the Nats are a poorly run organization, it should not surprise anyone that they have decided to start Kearns over Dukes, ignoring Elijah’s immense potential and Kearns’ consistent decline. However bad the decision may be, it does signal that Dukes may be available. Josh Willingham has been sent to the bench as well, for the immortal Willie Harris, but he is unlikely to draw nearly as much interest as Dukes and would likely be more valuable to the team if they kept him.
If I were Brian Cashman, I would strongly consider swinging a deal for Dukes. The Nats have a very weak farm system, so that the Yankees may be able to put together a package of pitchers enticing enough to aquire the mercurial outfielder. He would fill the Melky Cabrera role in 2009, as he is a much better bat than Melky, is not appreciably worse in the field, and runs as well as, if not better than, Cabrera. He would allow the Yankees to field offers on Xavier Nady at the deadline, and could slot into left field in 2010 when Damon and Nady leave. At worst, he would give the Yankees the ability to walk away from Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez if the cost got too high.
Finally, in regard to his attitude, the Yankees seem to be well equipped to deal with that sort of issue. They have some veteran leadership, as well as some “cooler” vets such as Burnett and Sabathia who may be able to connect with Dukes on a personal level. I think that his immense talent makes him worth the risk.
What do you think? Good idea, or does his history scare you off?
Although we typically hate to post Red Sox news on the site, this is too big to ignore. In a move that shifts the balance of power in the AL East, Buster Olney is reporting that the Red Sox have obtained Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins for Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, and Jed Lowrie. The NY Post and Jon Heyman have confirmed that a deal has gone down, although they both say that Bard may not be in the trade, with Manny Delcarmen being the alternative. Ramirez is a former member of the Sox, as he went to Florida in the Josh Beckett deal. The return for the Marlins seems a bit thin, as none of the players projects to be a star, although Lowrie and Bowden have high probabilities of being solid MLB players. A deal of Hughes, Melancon, and Romine would certainly have been superior, with more high end talent and only slightly less probability. However, the Marlins typically do well on these deals, so it is hard to question the prospects that they selected. Maybe they see more upside in Lowrie or Bowden, or see Bard as a closer.
Apparently this deal has been in the offing for a while, with the talks beginning shortly following the breakdown of the Mark Teixeira negotiations. While there is no word as to the involvement of other teams, you have to assume that the Yankees were involved in some way here, and failed to ante up for a player who could have solved their issue at SS or in CF. BP has already evaluated the new Red Sox lineup, and reached the conclusion that Boston is now likely to win 101 games, with the Yankees coming in at 96. While this does not mean that the Yankees have no chance to win the division, it does establish Boston as the clear favorites in the AL East. The Yankees may just have to set their sights a bit lower, focusing on battling with the Rays for the wild card.
What do you think about this deal? Was it fair? Should the Yankees have offered Hughes, Melancon, and Romine to trump Boston’s offer? Do you think this is another instances of Cashman being asleep at the wheel while the Sox obtain young talent? Should you have realized that this is just an April Fools joke?
