Joel Sherman compiled his list of top 10 players to watch in the 2010 season, and Brandon Webb was mentioned:
BRANDON WEBB, DIAMONDBACKS
The pitching version of Reyes: a 2005-08 iron man who led the majors in innings and wins before breaking down last year. So far, so good on his shoulder. If Webb is 2006 Cy Young healthy in tandem with ace Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson, Arizona will have a rotation front three among the NL’s best.
I would keep an eye on Webb’s performance, but not because I think he will give Arizona a top rotation. Rather, the 30-year old Webb is a candidate to be traded if he can recapture some of his old glory. If Arizona is not a legitimate playoff contender when the trade deadline rolls around, the Diamondbacks will likely seek to extract some value from the impending free agent. While his shoulder issue and the fact that he will be a 2 month rental player will limit the return, he should still fetch a nice package of prospects, as his last 3 healthy seasons yielded one Cy Young award and 2 second place finishes. I fully expect him to be moved at the deadline unless he accepts a below market deal from the Diamondbacks.
Now, I certainly do not expect the Yankees to need a pitcher at the trading deadline. With CC Sabathia, Javier Vazquez, and Andy Pettitte all consistent 200 inning pitchers, AJ Burnett seemingly having figured out how to stay healthy, and Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes available to fill out the rotation, the Yankees should be set at starter. However, the unexpected seems to be the norm when it comes to major league pitching, and there are scenarios under which the Yankees would be looking for a starter come the end of July. If they are in fact short one pitcher at that time, expect to hear a multitude of rumors regarding Brandon Webb.
Since July’s trade deadline, Roy Halladay has put together a truly forgettable campaign. In 6 starts in August, Halladay had a 2-4 record, a 4.71 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a .316 BAA. Sergio Mitre actually had the same amount of wins in August while having started fewer games. One wonders how Halladay would have performed if he had been traded.
Jarrod Washburn, who, unlike Halladay, was actually traded a few hours prior to the July deadline, had a 6.81 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in August. He has won just one game for Detroit since joining the team (the same number had by Chad Gaudin).
Funny how things work out sometimes…
From George King (NY Post):
At Friday’s trade deadline, the Yankees added utilityman Jerry Hairston Jr. and nothing else. Not wanting to add payroll, the Yanks weren’t serious players for lefty Jarrod Washburn, who went from Seattle to Detroit.
So, what are the chances of making a deal now that a player has to clear waivers in order to be traded?
“Who knows — if it makes sense we will look at it,” GM Brian Cashman said. “There will be opportunity for people to do deals in the new deadline. What that means for us remains to be seen.”
If Hal Steinbrenner didn’t allow Cashman to take on significant money before July 31, it’s unlikely he will do so now. However, the Yankees are locked in a tight race with the Red Sox, and if Aceves isn’t right and Mitre continues to get spanked, they will be forced to make upgrades.
Multiple sources said yesterday that players will get through waivers this year more than in recent years due to teams not wanting to get stuck with a contract via the claim process.
King is basically saying that Hal Steinbrenner prohibited significant payroll additions at the trade deadline. He also says that, because of financial concerns, the Yankees were never serious players for Jarrod Washburn. That can be disputed, however, as Bryan Hoch notes that the Yankees didn’t make a serious play at Washburn because Seattle’s demands were too high. They reportedly wanted Austin Jackson, which wasn’t going to happen—not for a 2-month rental. Still, as Steve Lombardi points out, the Yankees could have bargained with the Mariners, right? Sure they wanted A-Jax—everyone asks for a team’s top prospects at the outset—but considering what they got for Washburn from the Tigers, it seems as though they would have lowered their demands if Cashman was truly persistent. What, then, is the truth? Did financial concerns limit Cashman or was it the Mariners and their unreasonable requests?
In the end, I believe that the Yankees didn’t want to take on Washburn’s contract which ultimately explains why he isn’t with the team today. Everything they’ve said about the M’s wanting A-Jax is simply disinformation to make it look like they actually tried to get Washburn. We heard numerous reports leading up to the trade deadline claiming that the Yankees wanted teams to pay the salaries of trade targets like Bronson Arroyo and Brian Bannister, which support this theory. Based on the information at hand, it really seems like the Yankees aren’t going to make anymore moves this year unless they are absolutely forced to—not because of unfair trade packages, but because of Hal Steinbrenner’s fiscal philosophy.
With Chein Ming Wang having a setback in his rehab and due to see Dr James Andrews today, Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi said yesterday that the team is looking to add depth to their starting rotation. Brian Hoch of MLB.com has the story:
It is a situation that general manager Brian Cashman is acutely aware of as the Yankees approach the July 31 non-waiver Trade Deadline. While there are no moves that can be classified as imminent, he acknowledges that there is room for improvement.
“When we made the decisions that we’ve made so far, they were tough decisions with consequences,” Cashman said on Thursday. “We’re better because of those moves, but we’re thinner.”
Girardi goes on to add:
“I still think there is some concern with our depth,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “I’m not saying that you necessarily trade for a Major League pitcher, but there is some concern if someone else goes down. There are some innings limitations on Joba, so that is something that is a concern.
Adding depth can be done in a few different ways. You can add a middle to back of the rotation MLB starter and demote Sergio Mitre. Chances are the Yanks would look for someone that’s overpaid, on a team that’s out of it and due to be a free agent at the end of the year. Looking at the 2010 Free Agent list these options aren’t overly exciting, with names like Odalis Perez, Adam Eaton and Brandon Backe in this category. Seattle is still in contention, so Eric Bedard and Jarrod Washburn would likely have to wait for a mid-August deal in which they would clear waivers. Most of the other free agents-to-be are on teams that are still in the hunt, and the Reds even said yesterday that they will be buyers, not sellers.
You could acquire a low ceiling former MLB veteran AAA starter who’s blocked on another team. Someone like Mike Hampton, Tom Glavine or Casey Fossom. Again, not all that attractive. Guys like that are blocked for a reason, and it’s usually because they don’t have much left in the tank. Or you could go ahead and make a blockbuster deal for a high end starter like Halladay or Cliff Lee, and then demote Sergio Mitre an keep him at AAA as your insurance policy. But we know those guys will cost a boatload in terms of talent.
Looking at where things currently stand, the smart move appears to be waiting to see who pops up on the waiver wire and taking it from there. But if there was another injury, right now Ivan Nova would be the most likely callup. Looking at our current options, he may be the best one.
The good Joel Sherman made an appearance yesterday, with an article detailing the Yankee shift in philosophy toward developing talent from within, comparing and contrasting it with his beloved Mets. While this isn’t news to anyone who’s followed the team closely since Cash took over the Baseball ops in 2006, it’s still a worthwhile read. But here’s the part I found most interesting:
So do the Yankees turn inward or do they use farm depth to try to find younger alternatives to areas of need through trade? Cashman, in fact, said he has tried to point the organization toward the model of the mid-1990s when the Yankees had a substantial volume of prospects from which to make trades. He cited having, for example, two high-end young lefties such as Sterling Hitchcock and Pettitte, believing Pettitte was the better long-term gamble and using Hitchcock to obtain Tino Martinez in his prime.
The Yankees feel they have strong depth in catcher with Cervelli, Montero, Romine and recent Dominican sign Gary Sanchez. They like left-handed setup men Coke and Mike Dunn. They like right-handed setup men Mark Melancon and David Robertson. Cabrera, Gardner and Jackson all are center fielders. Pena, Reggie Corona and Kevin Russo project as borderline infield starters or utilitymen.
The Yanks have depth in the farm at certain positions, not so much in others. So now the question becomes who do we keep and who do we trade? Let’s go position by position through the Yankee farm depth chart. Obviously Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will draw much attention from the 25 man roster as well. Since minor leaguers will often change positions to suit the needs of the club, I’ll condense the positions that are interchangeable in the minors and highlight positions of depth and the players I want to keep:
Catcher-Francisco Cervelli, Jesus Montero, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez
First Base/Third Base-Juan Miranda, Eric Duncan, Chris Malec, Cody Ransom
Second Base/Shortstop-Ramiro Pena, Kevin Russo, Eduardo Nunez, Doug Bernier
Outfielders-Austin Jackson, Shelly Duncan, John Rodriguez, Colin Curtis
Starting Pitchers-Ian Kennedy, Ivan Nova, Zachary McCallister, Manny Banuelos, George Kontos, Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Jeremy Bleich
Relief Pitchers-Jon Albaladejo, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Melancon, Dave Robertson, Mike Dunn, Anthony Claggett, Wilkins DeLaRosa, Zack Kroenke
Infielders of any kind is something we just don’t have very much of, so if the Blue Jays need a SS as reported, then we just don’t have a match who projects to be an everyday player. But they’re also looking for a Catcher, and that’s our deepest position in the minors. If I’m Brian Cashman, I don’t give up an elite prospect like Montero unless he’s the centerpiece of the deal, with filler surrounding him. Catchers who can hit are one of the most sought-after commodities in baseball. Hughes and Joba fall into my A+ category as well. For a pitcher like Halladay, I’ll give up one of them, but will not combine them in packages as so many have floated. Multiple A+ prospects is what Omar Minaya gave up for Bartolo Colon, and it’s generally considered one of the worst trades in history.
THT has a must read piece up interviewing noted Baseball economist and Columbia University professor Vince Gennaro, who authored the book Diamond Dollars
. He delves into the changing nature of free agency, how the economy will affect teams among other topics. But what I thought was most timely were his thoughts on the upcoming Baseball draft and the July 31st trade deadline. First, here’s his take on the draft:
THT: How do you think the economy will affect how teams draft and deal with international signings this year?
VG: I would expect teams to continue to be relatively aggressive in these areas. With the downturn in the economy putting revenue pressure on many teams, these low cost sources of talent are even more important to the long term health of low revenue teams. Teams know that taking a pass on the draft by not stepping up and signing draftees, or pulling back from signing international prospects can set them back a couple of years in their quest to become or maintain competitiveness.
That’s surprising, given how speculative these picks generally are. The draft would seem to me to be the first thing a cost-conscious team would cut back on, as the Mets and Pirates have for many years. Also, with free agent prices coming down and good players available relatively cheap, a team would be even less likely to spend on high-risk draft picks when MLB ready talent is available for short term deals at similar rates. For example, a team like the Mets that is close to contending would rather spend 5 mil for a year of Bobby Abreu than spend a similar amount on a HS kid who may never be a MLB player, and is very likely to never be as good as Bobby Abreu. That would drive prices down for anyone past the top half of the 1st Round. Most Baseball GMs have a short shelf life, they know if they don’t win and fast, they will likely not be around to see the fruits of a high school kid helping the MLB team.
But he may be right with other GMs that have more secure positions, we certainly saw evidence to support his take with Billy Beanes’ eye-popping offer to IFA pitcher Michael Inoa last year. I suspect this market may mirror the MLB free agent market, where the top guys get their money and everyone else’s price collapses. That would benefit the Yanks in both markets, big time. Agents would steer clients to the Yanks (and Sox) knowing they’re the only ones spending any money past the 1st round leading to both teams having drafts deep in high upside talent. But this market could also work in reverse with HS players, where they will simply opt for college and hope the economy improves by next year.
Next, he discusses the trade deadline:
THT: Will the economy change how teams trade players during the year? For example, will teams that get off to a bad start be more willing to trade their more expensive players?
VG: I think teams that are not in contention will be more aggressive in terms of looking to deal players. I really think it will be a buyer’s market and I would expect teams to start shopping players earlier, leading to more transactions in June. There’s very little financial upside in being a 74-win team vs. a 70-win team. Yet a player who might be able to push a team into the postseason may hold the key to unlocking a $30 million revenue stream. It’s always interesting to watch how playing assets get reallocated mid-year to situations where they have the highest return. There are a few teams that have publicly said that they’re stashing some dollars in order to become an acquirer in July. They should be able to make some key additions at a reasonable price.
This interview was conducted months before the season, yet he nailed this. We’re already seeing the Pirates, Indians, Padres and A’s shopping players looking to get out ahead of a market that could collapse at the last minute. The teams that could really get hurt by this are the ones that are currently in contention (Blue Jays, Cincinatti) but don’t figure to stay close all year. They’re too good now to raise the white flag by selling off, but could easily fall out of the race over the next month and see their balance sheet force them to make a last-minute deal, where they are likely to get little in return. I would throw Milwaukee in this category as well, I still think the Cubs are the best team in that division and will hit their stride eventually. Particularily when Harden and Ramirez come off the DL soon.
