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Looking to deliver a knockout blow in Fenway

Posted by Steve S. at 7:32 am 6 Responses »
Aug 212009

The Yanks roll into Fenway with some unfinished business. They stand at 31 games over .500 for the year (76-45) but have yet to win a game in Fenway (0-6). The pitching match ups are favorable, with Andy Pettitte going against Brad Penny tonight, AJ Burnett facing Junichi Tazawa on Saturday and the red hot CC Sabathia facing Josh Beckett coming off his 2nd worst outing of the year. His worst outing was April 16th against our beloved Yankees, which Yankee fans will remember as the game where AJ Bunett couldn’t hold a 6-0 lead.

Yanks-Sox is always fun, but the extensive lead (6.5 games) the Yanks currently enjoy will put something of a damper on the series. The worst case scenario has the Yanks still enjoying a comfortable lead, and the more likely scenario of a split means little either way for both teams. Pressure is squarely on the Sox to get a sweep and get back in the division race, and they just don’t have the pitchers lined up to make that realistic. Give credit to Girardi here, I’m sure he factored in who will go in Fenway when figuring out where Joba, Gaudin and Mitre would pitch.

The Yanks are in a position to bury the Sox in the division, and possibly in the playoffs as well. The Red Sox are currently only 1 game ahead of the Texas Rangers for the Wild Card and 4 ahead of the Rays. A sweep by the Yanks and a good weekend by either the Rangers or the Rays would change the wild card race. Fortunately for the Sox, the Rangers are playing the Rays in Tampa this weekend so the damage should be minimal. The Rays are 40-20 at home (Tied for 2nd best with DET) and the Rangers are 27-28 on the road, but 3-0 vs the Rays this year. A Ranger sweep on top of a Yankee sweep in Fenway would be very tough for Boston as a town and a team to handle.

Just to illustrate how dramatically things can change this weekend, lets look at a few scenarios. If we can assume a Yankee sweep, here’s how the standings would look if the Rangers sweep the Rays or the Rays sweep the Rangers:

Current Wild Card standings:

BOS 69-51

TEX 68-52
TAM 65-55

If Rays sweep Rangers:

BOS 69-54

TEX 68-55 (1 game back)
TAM 68-55 (1 game back)

If Rangers win 2 of 3:

TEX 70-53

BOS 69-54 (1 game back)

TAM 66-57 (4 games back)

So in any case, if the Yanks sweep the Sox things could get very interesting for the Wild Card race.

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Have the Red Sox Fallen in Love with their Minor League System?

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 4:33 pm 7 Responses »
Jun 092009
.!.

Love is not altogether a delirium, yet it has many points in common therewith.

Thomas Carlyle

We all love our farm systems.  What’s not to love?  Farm systems are like a new crush.  You see all the potential, all the good stuff but none of the flaws.  In the flush of new love, we are all liable to make erratic or downright poor decisions like write bad love poems, use baby talk, pass up opportunities to be with our loved ones or allow ourselves to be locked inside giant bird cages (don’t ask – it’s a long story).

The point is that love can sometimes cloud our judgement and make us do things that we otherwise might consider foolhardy, reckless or unwise.  My question, then, in the face of last off-season where the Red Sox failed to make a single significant trade or free agent signing despite having plenty of  salary flexibility to do so is this: Has Boston fallen in love with their farm system to the point where they have abandoned the big trades and free agent signings that got them 2 World Series Championships?
Theo Epstein’s romance with his minor league system has certainly reaped some hefty dividends, to be sure.  Pedroia, Youkilis and Papelbon were all important contributors to their last championship, but let’s face it, the core of the 2 titles was not built from within, but from without.  Pedro, Beckett, Schilling, Manny, Papi, and Damon were all acquired through aggressive trading and free agent activity.  Even most of the role players and lesser lights were all acquisitions, not home grown: Millar, Foulke, Lowe, Mueller, Wakefield, Bellhorn, Kapler, Renteria, Olerud, and many more.

The Sox, with their vaunted salary flexibility and formidable revenue streams had the chance to make big splashes last offseason with guys like Teixeira, Burnett, Lowe, Peavy, Orlando Hudson and CC Sabathia, but decided to trust their system and their guys in-house and make bargain basement deals on damaged goods like Smoltz, Penney, and Saito.

Some of these gambles have worked out, with Lowell having a bounce back year from injury, Varitek not sucking nearly as much as expected, and Saito doing a pretty good job out of the pen, but Penny has been poor (5.85 ERA), Smoltz hasn’t thrown a pitch, Lowrie getting injured, and Papi seems completely done.  Ellsbury has only been decent (.370 slugging, .340 OBP (both lower than Brett Gardner, btw)), as has Masterson.

You have to wonder if the Teixeira/Ortiz swing will wind up costing the Red Sox a playoff spot this year.At this rate, judging by WAR values (wins above replacement level), Tex on the Yankees opposed by Ortiz on the Sox, will cost the Red Sox about 10 wins to the Yanks.  That could make  quite a difference in the respective teams’ fortunes.

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