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Best Case Scenario: Fifth Starter

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 072011

Late last week I played around with a WAR spread sheet and projected the 2011 rotation while comparing it to the 2010 rotation. I was pleased by the results since they weren’t as ugly as we may’ve expected. Consider it riding that relatively high feeling, but I’m going to get a bit more bold. I’m going to take all those random fifth starter candidates–Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, and David Phelps and project their performance in a different way.

I’m going to keep their CAIRO projected FIPs the same, but I’m going to tinker with the innings. Instead of changing the projected performance, I’m going to change the duration of that performance. I’ll take whatever FIP that CAIRO gives me and “extrapolate” it out to the same number of innings the Yankees got out of their “fifth” starter last year. I designate fifth starter as the guy with the fifth highest innings pitched total. In 2010, that was Andy Pettitte and his 129 innings. Performance wise, Pettitte obviously wasn’t the fifth best starter, but we’re just talking innings here. I call this post the “best case scenario” because if the Yankees get 129 innings out of any of these guy’s, it’d be damn near miraculous.

Sergio Mitre:
Actual Projection: 4.69 FIP in 72 IP = 0.7 WAR
Extrapolated Projection: 4.69 FIP in 129 IP = 1.3 WAR

Ivan Nova:
Actual: 5.04 FIP/116 IP/0.8 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.04 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Freddy Garcia:
Actual: 4.90 FIP/31 IP/0.2 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.90 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Bartolo Colon (No CAIRO projection for Colon, using Marcel instead):
Actual: 4.60 FIP/66 IP/0.7 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.60 FIP/129 IP/1.4 WAR

Hector Noesi:
Actual: 4.91 FIP/81 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.91 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Andrew Brackman:
Actual: 5.26 FIP/63 IP/0.3 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.26 FIP/129 IP/0.6 WAR

David Phelps:
Actual: 5.05 FIP/94 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.05 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Based on these ridiculously rough calculations, the best we’re probably looking at from the Yankee (nominal) fifth starter is anywhere from 0.6 WAR (Brackman) to 1.4 WAR (Colon, which is probably the most out there of these projections). Considering what the Yankees got out of their fifth starter(s) last year in terms of performance, I would sign up for that. Javier Vazquez was under replacement level by fWAR (-0.2) in 2010 so anything would be an improvement. I’m not confident in saying that any one of these guys will necessarily reach the arbitrary 129 IP mark, but if it happens, I’ll be dancing.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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The What If 5th Starter Candidates

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Jan 252011

At this point in the Hot Stove season, the Yankees are pretty much set. They could still add a starter for some rotation depth or bring some position players in in minor league deals to add depth in AAA, but for the most part, the team on paper now is probably going to be the team on Opening Day. Since the real options for the fifth starter’s spot are so grim, I thought it’d be a fun–if not slightly sadistic/masochistic–exercise to go over the options that were once a possibility, but aren’t any more. This won’t include guys like Cliff Lee or Andy Pettitte who would just push others (read: Ivan Nova) back to the fourth/fifth spots.

The first one that comes to mind is Joba Chamberlain. This path is worn, so we won’t walk down it again. By know, you know where I stand on this.

Alfredo Aceves, without back injury, would definitely be up for this spot. The jack-of-all-trades was a starter in Mexico and the minors and had a wide array of pitches at his disposal. This may’ve been a stretch after missing pretty much all of 2010 but I think hew would’ve been worth the try; he’s definitely a better option than Mitre.

If not for injuries, we could be talking about Alan Horne in a rotation spot. He was great in 2007 with the Thunder but just couldn’t stay healthy or effective after that. Horne didn’t pitch at all in 2010.

Aside from Joba Chamberlain, the most perfect candidate for this spot would’ve been Ian Kennedy. Despite an unceremonious departure from New York, Kennedy still has some upside and definitely passes the Better Than Mitre test. With a 3.80/4.33/4.28 ERA/FIP/xFIP triple slash last year in 194 innings, Kennedy proved he can be at least an average pitcher somewhere in the Majors (2.4 fWAR, 2.7 bWAR). As much as I like Kennedy and would love to have him around, I’d still do the trade that sent him to Arizona and Austin Jackson to Detroit while bringing Curtis Granderson to New York.

The combination of the very cool part of the Hot Stove season–and the desperation to see ANYONE but Sergio Mitre in the fifth spot–has brought us to this…contemplating guys who could’ve helped the team if they were still in the organization. At this point, I have to wonder (like RAB did yesterday) if Mitre really IS the best option out there. The Serg isn’t going to be making much money this season and if he sucks, he can always be relegated back to the long-man spot or he can be let go without much of a financial hit. The Yankees are ready to throw the Sergio Spaghetti to the wall and see what sticks. What’s the worst that happens? He sucks as badly as Javier Vazquez did in 2010 and the Yankees cut him loose. What’s the best that happens? He proves himself worthy as a good groundball guy and the Yankees get some value. I’m not counting on that best case scenario, but considering the costs and the alternatives, I will no longer be irate if the Yankees end up trying it out.

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Don't Even Think About It

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 192011

As you’ve probably heard, the Tigers designated right hander Armando Galarraga for assignment yesterday to make room for anther right hander, Brad Penny.

My first thought was “Wow, I’m surprised they did that.” My second thought? “Sucks to be him.” My third thought? “The Yankees better not even think of signing this guy.” There are probably some people who want to do it, but I just don’t see Galarraga as any sort of good fit. The “Better than Sergio Mitre” bar is a pretty low bar to clear, but I’m not sure Galarraga does.

In his third year with the Tigers, Galarraga’s put up a semi-respectable 4.49 ERA (93 ERA+) in 144.1 innings. Both of those totals are ones for which the Yankees would sign up for to get out of the fifth starter. However, I do not think that Galarraga can put up those numbers again? Why? A bunch of reasons.

Galarraga strikes nobody out. And I mean NOBODY. His K/9 this year was under 5 (4.61). He didn’t walk many in 2010 (3.18/9; 3.52 for his career), but he served up his fair share of homers: 1.31 per nine, and that was actually a drop from the previous year’s 1.50 mark (1.42 career). His FIP? 5.09. His xFIP? 5.44. Those marks look very similar to those from ’09–5.47 and 5.02. His ’09 ERA was 5.64. In 2008, his ERA/FIP/xFIP combo reminds me of his 2010 slash: 3.73/4.88/4.49. In 2010 and 2008, the years in which Galarraga had acceptable ERAs, we see him outperforming his peripherals. EDIT: 11:20 AM: I forgot to mention this: Galarraga also doesn’t get many grounders. His career GB% is 40.4, but that’s buoyed by a 43.5 mark in ’08. In both ’09 (39.9) and ’10 (37.3), he was under 40%. 
Basically, the only positives for Galarraga are that he’s (at least temporarily) available and has decent control. The negatives? No strikeouts, too many home runs, not enough grounders, and crappy peripherals. This is an easy, easy pass–or at least it should be.

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No Pettitte Shouldn't Mean No Patience

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

As you’ve probably heard, Andy Pettitte will not be pitching in 2011 (glove slap RAB). The first thing that ran through your head was probably a stream of expletives. Now, more than any time this offseason, we want the Yankees to make a move. Sign someone. Trade for someone. Do SOMETHING to help the rotation.

I can’t help but be on board with that mentality, but at the same time, we need to realize that the options out there are not all that wonderful. With each player out there–Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia–there is a good amount of risk. Francis and Duke are health concerns; Bonderman and Garcia are performance concerns. The White Sox looked to be shopping starters earlier in the Hot Stove Season, but we’ve heard nothing on that since, and now it seems unlikely that they will move a starter. Just about all other trade markets have been silent. Even if we don’t want to be patient, we have to be.

The Yankee Front Office–in which I have a lot of faith–likely recognizes the noticeable absence of good starting pitching options. They have also likely taken note of the relief pitching market, which has a stunningly similar lack of effective options (this isn’t to say that there aren’t good relief pitchers out there who could help the Yankees; it’s only to say that other things like cost and compensation will get in the way.). But on the other hand, the Yankee Front Office probably realizes that a rotation that is two fifths Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre isn’t all that great and probably won’t perform incredibly in the A.L. East. And while it’s likely that A.J. Burnett improves from his 2010 season, the only thing we can predict from his right arm is unpredictability. It looks like, though, we’ll have to deal with that rotation for at least some portion of the 2011 season.

As always, and as we all should, I have complete confidence in CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes, with even more experience under his belt, should improve. A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can’t possibly be worse than 2010. Ivan Nova does have some upside, no matter how small, but there’s still some there. Sergio Mitre…well…he gets ground balls? Mitre is really the only one I’m uncomfortable with. Luckily, replacing him at some point during the season shouldn’t be too hard. Like I said, there are some buy low options on the free agent market and at any point during the season, the trade market could develop and the Yankees could snag someone.

It’s not going to be easy, but we need to be steadfast in sticking with the patient outlook we’ve all taken on in the last few months. I’d be willing to bet that the Yankee starting five in October is not the one we’re looking at right now.

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Envisioning Bullpen Roles

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Jan 072011

Last night in the River Avenue Blues open thread, a commenter asked what the Yankees would plan to do without Kerry Wood as the definite set-up man. I wanted the Yankees to bring back Wood at the right price, but he ended up taking a sweetheart deal to go pitch for the Cubs. However, as I responded in the thread, the Yankees will be just fine in the bullpen, even without Wood.

I fully expect David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain to do the set up job just fine. They combined for over 132 innings last year and could likely both handle a moderate inning increase–think about 10-15 innings between the two of them. That could apply more to Robertson, who pitched 61.1 innings last year. Chamberlain’s total was pretty high at 71.2. In fact, that total was the 7th highest among all American League relievers.

Chamberlain’s ERA wasn’t pretty in 2010, but there are indicators that 2011 will be better. Chamberlain’s K/9 was a shade under 10 at 9.67 and his 2.76 BB/9 is more than fine. He also dropped her his HR/9 to 0.75. The 45.6 GB% is also encouraging, and I would expect that .342 BABIP to drop. His 66.6% strand rate was rather low, too. I think we can count on a better strand rate in 2011.

Robertson, as usual, still had the strikeouts working for him (10.42 per nine). The walks were still there for him at 4.84 BB/9, but he upped his GB% to just under 40% and also dropped his HR/9 to 0.73. There aren’t any apparent red flags for Robertson, and I’m confident in his ability to repeat 2010, or at least come close to it. If Chamberlain can repeat everything from 2010, while lowering his ERA, he and Robertson will make up a formidable set-up combination. They won’t have to bear the load alone. And, while both Joba and D-Rob can pitch well enough against lefties, they will be helped by lefty specialists Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano. The four of those pitchers can make up a solid bridge to Mowhere.

That doesn’t mean, though, that the Yankees shouldn’t at least think about adding another reliever. I’ve argued for Brian Fuentes, but he wants to close and may want a relatively long term deal. Jon Rauch is also a possibility , but there’s been no market on him, so we have no idea what it will take to get him. I think Rauch could come relatively cheaply and he would be a welcomed addition.

What roles we may not be sure of are the non-late inning roles. The long relief role seems absolutely wide open. It could be someone out of the organization right now; it could be Sergio Mitre; it could be Ivan Nova. IT COULD BE MARK PRIOR! (No, no it couldn’t. Sigh.) Like it usually is, I think this role–along with the non-Mo/Joba/Robertson/Feliciano/Logan roles–will be rather fluid, like it tends to be each and every year.

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Yankees Bring Back Sergio Mitre

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Dec 022010

The fine folks at RAB have the news:

A non-tender candidate as tomorrow’s midnight deadline approaches, Mitre instead was tendered a contract by the Yanks and will sign for a $900,000 base salary. He can earn another $200,000 in incentives, Jerry Crasnick reported this evening. At that price, Mitre is a fine notch on the depth chart, but he was used sparingly in 2010. He made 27 appearances and threw 54 innings with a decent 3.33 ERA but just a 4.81 K/9 IP and a 2.7 BB/9 IP. He shouldn’t be anything more than the team’s seventh starter and should be among the first to go if they need a roster spot.

I had a discussion about this signing last night with excellent sportswriter Jonah Keri (as well as a followup discussion with @JoeRo23 and @PPinstripes, who helped hash out the ideas in this post), who contended that:

Yankees should never have to carry a bad player. And if they insist on being cheap at least be more creative than Mitre.

Basically, Jonah contends that the Yankees could address these bullpen slots in two ways. They can try and find undervalued fringe guys or AAA pitchers with good peripherals who can provide some upside, or they can spend more and bring in more talented depth players. Bringing back Mitre does not use either of these two strategies, and smacks of bringing back a replacement level player because they know what they are going to get from him. While Jonah’s comments are logical and definitely have some merit to them, I believe that he is making a number of assumptions that do not necessarily hold true:

1) Cycling through fringe guys who you think may have upside is better than signing one guy who is likely replacement.

Mitre is a known quantity, in that he is likely to provide the club with replacement level production. By contrast, most of the fringe/AAA guys Jonah refers to are unknown quantities, which is part of their allure but also a source of risk. Yes, you could immediately hit on someone who turns into an asset, but you could also run through a bunch of people before you found someone to give you replacement level production who can start, relieve, and who you do not mind treating pretty poorly (no regular work, constantly changing roles, etc). While Jonah’s solution is certainly more creative and provides more upside, the downside is greater as well. When your club is a likely 95 game winner, you do not need to gamble on upside in your mop-up role, and it may make more sense to settle on coming out even on that last bullpen slot.

2) That if you are willing to spend, you can build depth without touching upon bad players. That good players are willing to be “depth.”

Pitchers want to be given as much responsibility as possible for the most money possible. You are unlikely to get a player that is much better, or even marginally better, than Mitre to accept the role Mitre had this past season without paying him a large premium. At that point, it simply makes more sense to sign Mitre rather than play a marginally better player much more than he is worth.

I am not saying that Sergio Mitre is a good pitcher, nor am I comfortable concluding that Jonah’s contention is wrong. I am just suggesting that Mitre provides reasonable depth as the mop-up man and that replacing him with better talent is not as simple as it may seem, as Mike Axisa explains further at RAB. While we all want to see the Yankees be more creative, it may make more sense for them to stick with what they know, as boring as it seems.

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Decisions, Decisions

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Dec 022010

The Yankees have a bunch of looming decisions. The most immediate decision has to deal with offering arbitration/tendering offers to Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Dustin Moseley, Sergio Mitre, and Boone Logan. There are two no brainers in here: yes, offer arbitration or tender contracts to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. They’re definitely deserving of it and have performed well enough to get a decent contract.

Boone Logan should also be tendered a contract since he’ll probably still be cheap, considering he made just $590,000 in 2010 and performed well enough in the second half to justify a return.

In a perfect world, Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley would be non tendered and allowed to be free agents. However, as Joe and Mike over at River Ave. Blues said during yesterday’s Podcast, one of them will probably be brought back just for depth. I hate Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley is about as worthless to the Yankees as you can get, but either one will be cheap and very easy to let go when he lays an egg. Mitre showed a bit more, though, so I assume he’s the one who will be returning while Mr. Moseley will be looking for a minor league deal somewhere.

There are other pitching related decisions to be made, too.

The Rangers are apparently ready to offer Cliff Lee a five year deal. So, the decision for the Yankees will be whether to beat the Texas offer in years or money. My philosophy is always to overpay in money, rather than years when it comes to pitchers. The Yankees should sit back, see how much the Rangers were offering for five years, and then try to beat it by a few million. They should only go to a sixth year if that is an absolute sticking point for Mr. Lee and his agent.

Next, there is the Zack Greinke trade talk that’s been floating around. I’m not going to hold my breath on this trade, but it’s something nice to dream about. If the Yankees feel they can get this hypothetical deal done without having to trade Jesus Montero to Kansas City, they should absolutely pull the trigger (again, assuming ZG waves his NTC and allows himself to be acquired by the Yankees). I wonder if this is a possible plan B to Cliff Lee or just a plan A-2. That is, if one happens, does it cancel out the other? This leads me into another decision.

Will the Yankees wait on Andy Pettitte? The Yankees have a (very very very very) small chance at landing both Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke. However, if both are accomplished, that means they’d have no room for Andy Pettitte, unless they moved A.J. Burnett to the bullpen–which they’re not about to do–or traded him, which would be damn near impossible at this point. This makes me think that Lee is Plan A and a possible-but-not-at-all-probable Zack Greinke trade is Plan B. While I’d love to jump at the chance to get ZG, I’d prefer to sign Lee and Pettitte for just money, while holding on to the prospects that it would take to acquire Greinke.

What do you readers think? Do you think the Yankees should ditch Lee and pursue a Greinke trade? Should they wait on Andy Pettitte before implementing a Plan B? Should they let both Mitre and Moseley walk?

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Making the Case

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 20 Responses »
Sep 232010

Right after the rain delay ended last night, Jack Curry tweeted the following:

Yanks expect 11 pitchers for DS. CC, AJ, Andy, Phil, Mo, Wood, Joba, Logan, Rbrtsn r locks. Nova, Vazquez, Gaudin, Mitre fight 4 2 spots

Let’s lay out the case for each guy, then, and we’ll see what you readers think.

Javier Vazquez has a few things going for him: he’s a veteran and managers always like that in the playoffs. He’s also proven himself to be a good, sometimes great starter. Granted, we haven’t seen that much this year, but he does still have the ability to pitch well. At his best, he’s waist, chest, shoulders, and head above the other guys on this list. When he’s at his worst, though, he’s just as bad as the others.

If we’re going on recent performance then I guess it’s got to be Ivan Nova. While he’s had trouble going deep into games, he’s still pitched pretty well of late and that should hold some weight with the coaching staff and front office. In the bullpen, he won’t need to go through the order more than once, if he has to even do that much.

Gaudin and Mitre are basically the same exact pitcher: sometimes good, most of the time not so much. Gaudin misses bats a little more than Mitre does, but Mitre gets more grounders.

Curry forgot to mention Dustin Moseley, who’s entering the game as I write this, but that’s for good reason. There’s really no case to make for him.

At the end of the day, I think it’s going to be Nova and Vazquez. They’ve got the best talent and are most useful. They can go multiple innings or make a start if there’s a disaster, and they’re not named “Chad Gaudin,” “Sergio Mitre,” or “Dustin Moseley.” And, honestly, the chances that they pitch meaningful innings in the playoffs are very small.

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Hoping for the best

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jul 292010

just hoping nothing happens

Later today, Dustin Moseley will make his first start in a Yankee uniform. He’s pitched in four games for the Yankees to the tune of a 4.22 ERA. He’s showed okay control with a 3.4 BB/9 but his K/9 is under 5 and his H/9 is also very low, coming in below 6, which is obviously something he can’t keep up. His FIP in this small sample is also 5.73 with an xFIP of 4.70. Of course, these numbers have come in 10.2 innings so they mean next to nothing.

All I’m asking for tonight, Dustin, is that you last at least five innings and give up no more than five runs. You’re facing the Indians, so maybe I could expect more than that. But, with the way Sergio Mitre pitched against the Royals in his spot start, I’m not holding my breath on anything great. All I can really hope for is that Moseley doesn’t embarrass himself, get hurt, or put the Yankees in an awful position in terms of the bullpen.

This Pettitte injury really makes me miss Alfredo Aceves. Maybe I was selling him short in thinking he could probably never be more than a spot-starter at best, but he’d be a better option over Mitre, Moseley, and Chad Gaudin. Hopefully he doesn’t experience yet another set back in his recovery from a back injury and can come back healthy for the playoff push.

The other thing the Pettitte injury makes me think about is what I said at the beginning of the year in relation to the fifth starter “competition” from Spring Training. If the Yankees had sent Joba Chamberlain to the minors instead of to the Major League bullpen when they announced Phil Hughes would be the fifth starter, he would be making the starts. And despite how poorly he’s pitched, we can’t say that it would be exactly the same had he started the year in AAA and he’d likely be another upgrade over the aforementioned pitchers. Of course, not everything can go the way we want it to.

The Yankees, with regards to Moseley and Mitre (and possibly Ivan Nova later), are doing what every team does when dealing with injury: they’re mixing, they’re matching, and they’re trying as best they can to plug leaks.

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