Lineups provided by LoHud:
YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CFPitching: LHP CC Sabathia (2-0, 1.23 ERA)
ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Juan Rivera LF
Howie Kendrick 2B
Kendry Morales 1B
Mike Napoli C
Erick Aybar SSPitching: LHP Scott Kazmir (0-0, 7.50 ERA)
TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX
Here are Kazmir’s career numbers against the Yankees.
Here are Sabathia’s career numbers against the Angels (postseason not included).
Facing Kazmir could be what Mark Teixeira needs. He’s 7-for-11 against the young left-hander (.636/.667/1.000). Also, Jorge Posada, who has moved up in the lineup, is 11-for-25 against Kazmir with a .440/.464/.680 line. While I don’t necessarily believe in Melky Cabrera, he too has good numbers against Kazmir. He’s 8-for-20 (.400/.400/.500). The rest of the Yankee lineup hasn’t done much against him, though (Matsui’s .179 BA explains the Jorge flip).
CC is pitching on 3 days of rest. Let’s hope that he’s got enough in the tank to dominate.
As we have mentioned several times on this blog, Mike Scioscia has tapped Joe Saunders to pitch Game 2 of the ALCS, with fellow lefty Scott Kazmir going in Game 4. This seems like a strange decision, one that I keep trying to figure out to no avail. The two pitchers have had similar 2009 season, but Kazmir has had the better career and is significantly more likely to shut the Yankees down. Let’s run through possible reasons for this move:
Saunders is pitching better lately:
Nope. Sauders was very good in September, with a 2.89 ERA, .733 OPS against, and a 1.31 WHIP. However, Kazmir was even better, with 1.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a .561 OPSA. Essentially Kazmir had turned back into an ace-like pitcher until his poor start against Boston in the ALDS. Is one start really going to cause the Angels to go with the inferior pitcher?
Saunders is better against the Yankees:
Obviously not. Kazmir has better career numbers against NY, and was better against them in 2009 as well (3.20 ERA to 4.72). Kazmir has not started in the new Yankee Stadium, so there is no way to judge how he might do there, which leads to the next point.
Saunders is a better fit for NYS:
This is the one that I have heard the most, that Saunders gets more grounders (.90 GB/FB compared to .52) and therefore is a better fit for Yankee Stadium than a flyball pitcher like Kazmir. However, this leaves out an important portion of the analysis: Saunders gave up a lot more home runs than Kazmir in 2009, serving up 29 compared to 16 by Kaz, albeit in 40 fewer innings. Saunders allowed 1.4 HR/9, while Kazmir allowed just 1 HR/9. Basically, Kazmir allowed a greater number of flyballs yet gave up fewer home runs (6.2 % HR/FB), while Saunders allowed a large percentage of flyballs to leave the park (10.3 % HR/FB).
Saunders will save the bullpen:
Kazmir averaged 5.6 innings per start this year, while Saunders averaged 6. That is a difference of one out. If Mike Scioscia is choosing the lesser pitcher due to one out of bullpen work, then the Angels have bigger bullpen issues that I thought.
To sum up, Kazmir has been better lately, is better against the Yankees, and is probably a better fit for Yankee Stadium. Why he is not starting Game 2 over Saunders is beyond me.
Can you explain it?
MLB.com has the pitching match ups for the upcoming Yanks-Angels ALCS, and has Joe Saunders listed as probable for Game 2, facing Yankee right hander AJ Burnett.
I’ll have to admit, this leaves me a bit perplexed. Angels manager Mike Scioscia has stated he wants to pitch a lefty at Yankee Stadium, to reduce the power threat the Yanks pose with hitters such as Teixeira, Swisher, Posada and Cabrera, all of whom have hit have hit the majority of their home runs from the left side. But the last time I checked, Scott Kazmir was left handed as well.
Joe Saunders is a nice, back of the rotation league average pitcher who had a career year last season and then reverted to the mean this year. One who hasn’t even pitched since Oct. 4 when he went five innings in Oakland. His career splits facing the Yanks are sub par, but it’s only 5 starts. Though he did pitch well against the Yanks in a late September start this year. Overall, Saunders has a 2-1 career record and 6.28 ERA against the Yankees and went 1-0 with a 4.72 ERA against them in two starts this season, both of them at home.
Scott Kazmir on the other hand, has pitched exceptionally well against the Yanks in his MLB career. He has a 2.67 earned run average in 15 starts against the Yankees, including a 2-1 mark and 3.20 ERA in three starts this year. The Angels traded for Kazmir on August 28th in large part due to his record facing the Yanks and Red Sox, both of whom they were likely to face in the playoffs. Kazmir didn’t deliver in the ALDS, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings of work and (notably) only striking out 1 batter facing a diminished Red Sox lineup this year.
With 4 full days off between the ALDS and ALCS for both teams, there’s no issue of rest between starts for any pitcher. There ’s simply no reason I can come up with why you would start Joe Saunders over Scott Kazmir, unless he’s hurt. We have had some Angels fans checking in in recent days, if any of you can offer up an explanation I’d love to hear it.
Red Sox
1.) Beckett
2.) Dice K
3.) Lester
4.) Wakefield
5.) Penny/Smoltz
Tampa Bay
1.) Kazmir
2.) Shields
3.) Garza
4.) Price
5.) Sonnanstine
Yankees
1.) Sabathia
2.) Wang
3.) Burnett
4.) Chamberlain
5.) Pettitte
I think we can all agree Toronto is #4 and Baltimore is #5. But what I’m really interested in are the 3 contenders. Toronto could possibly be higher, they led the league in fewest Runs Allowed (610) last year. But with the very quiet off season they’ve had and the losses of Burnett, Marcum and McGowan, its hard to argue for them being able to duplicate last year’s performance.
The Yanks have 3 guys with top of the rotation stuff (CC, AJ, Joba) and Wang might be the best 4th option in Baseball. I think Andy will be solid, people seem to forget that there were questions about him holding up through the season going into ST last year, because he wasn’t able to keep up with his off season conditioning program due to the Clemens/Congress distractions. The Yanks do have some questions on health, but no more than anyone else does. AJ Bunett’s fragility has been overstated (avg 183 IP over last 4 years ) and Wang’s injury wasn’t even arm related. They also have more depth to deal with injuries this year, with last year’s opening day #4 (Hughes) and #5 (Kennedy) in AAA.
The Red Sox may still have the best pitcher of the 3 teams in Beckett, but he was shut down for a month late last year with an injury that the Sox were (and still are) very evasive about. It makes you wonder about the shoulder that the Sox were so worried about when they saw his medicals after they traded for him in November 05. The one Gammons said was described to him as “chopmeat” by a Red Sox exec, and they demanded (and received) extra compensation for in reliever Guillermo Mota. But until he visits Dr Andrews, you still have to assume he’ll be great. Dice-K is another story, he can’t keep walking 5.06/9IP and succeed in MLB. He appears to be falling into the same pattern that has plagued other Japanese imports like Hideo Nomo, becoming increasingly bat shy and trying to get outs with pitches outside the zone. He was ‘a Houdini act’ last year, but his luck won’t last forever. Lester is terrific and you expect good things from him, but after that it’s a mess. Who knows what Wakefield gives you anymore and I have no idea what they were thinking with Penny. He was horrendous last year (6-9 6.27 ERA) with LA and has a bad shoulder which hasn’t been operated on yet. They’re going to have trouble every 4th and 5th day, and their bullpen is still thin in the middle. Smoltz is a wild card, but at age 42 and coming off shoulder surgery, it’s hard to count on him. Smoltz may very well be used out of the bullpen if needed. Their off season moves (including Saito) appear to be intended to buy time for Bucholtz, Bowden, Masterson, Bard and others to develop. And they’ll need them to, especially if they suffer any injuries to the top 3.
Tampa figures to be outstanding top to bottom, and Price may very well be the best pitcher on the staff. But given that it will be his first full season in the bigs, its tough to expect him to dominate right away. Kazmir is very good and if can learn to economize his pitches he can get even better. But the elbow injury from last April bears watching. Shields is the most complete pitcher they have, Garza can be as good (or bad) as his maturity allows him to be. The 1-2 punch of Price/Garza could eventually be as good as there is in the game, but that figures to be a few years down the road for both of them. Sonnanstine is a nice #5, and they have good options in AAA backing him up. The Rays enjoyed exceptional health from their starting 5 last year, which is difficult to repeat. Given how young many of their starters are, their health history is still somewhat incomplete. Tampa will pitch well and catch the ball, the question will become whether they can score enough runs to keep up with the Yanks and Red Sox.
I would rank them as follows
1-Yankees
2-Tampa
3-Boston
4-Toronto
5-Baltimore
