According to George King of the NY Post, while it’s clear that right-handers, Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, “are the favorites,” or at least the two early finalists, vying for the fifth rotation spot this spring, “there are voices within the organization who want Chamberlain and Hughes in the pen.” GM Brian Cashman discussed this very issue last week with the lovable Mike Francesa, pointing out that such a pitching configuration, one which would feature Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, or Sergio Mitre as the fifth starter – an option that many more are pondering today after a small sample of recent innings from both Mitre and Aceves – would certainly be to the Yankees’ short-term benefit.

However, Cashman noted that, long-term, such a situation is neither efficient or pragmatic. As stated by Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave Blues, the Yankees need to cultivate at least one of their two young arms and inserting both into the team’s bullpen just does not work towards that goal. “The Yankees need to replace two starting pitchers next year,” Joe writes. “They’d be better serves in 2011, then, by having at least one of Hughes and Chamberlain starting in 2010” (to build innings, etc.). Yankees skipper, Joe Girardi, also made a similar point several weeks ago.

Putting both Hughes and Chamberlain would help the bullpen this season, but it would come at the expense of future starting rotations. In the end, potential long-term benefits, especially with regards to young pitchers, should trump the short-term stuff, right (I say that, but it does not always occur—see Joba Chamberlain’s emergence in 2007)?

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Last week, Steve throughly and cogently argued the case for Alfredo Aceves winning the competition for the Yankees’ lone available rotation slot. Today, I present 5 reasons why I believe that Joba Chamberlain is the only logical choice for that role.

1) Joba has the highest upside: Quite simply, Joba Chamberlain has the highest ceiling of the five options. While Aceves or even Gaudin might provide more predictable performance, only Joba (and to a lesser extent, Hughes) has the capability to turn into something much greater than a 5th starter type. For a team with 4 starters that have thrown at least 200 innings more than a few times over recent years, it makes sense to go with upside over stability in that 5th starter role.
2) There is more to lose if Joba is not in the rotation: Starting Aceves rather than Joba carries a much greater risk than allowing Joba to start. If Joba is put into the rotation and fails, he can simply be replaced with one of the other options, with no real long-term repercussions to follow. There is no real negative consequence to moving Aceves back and forth between roles. Conversely, if Joba starts the season in the bullpen, he is unlikely to pitch enough innings to allow him to properly continue his development, even if he was returned to the rotation mid-season. He would likely finish with a maximum of 100-110 innings, and would almost certainly be on an innings limit in 2011, which leads me to my next point.
3) The Yankees will likely be searching for starters next offseason: The only Yankee starters that are locked in to the 2011 rotation are CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. Depending on the performance and contract demands of Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez, the Yankees will be looking for anywhere from 1-3 starters next offseason. Having Joba Chamberlain established as a starter would go a long way towards allowing the Yankees to efficiently fill those empty slots. If the Yankees could have Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes providing quality innings at a low cost, it would allow them to invest in a player such as Cliff Lee. A rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez or Lee, Chamberlain, and Hughes (on an innings limit) would be expensive but dominant at the top and cost efficient and effective at the bottom.
4) He may be the best of the five right now: While Joba was inconsistent and occasionally awful last season, his overall body of work as a starter suggests that even if you ignore upside, he may be the best option of the five right now. Matt looked at the projections for Chamberlain, and found that the average projection has him notching a 4.10 ERA, 1.4332 WHIP, and 3.95 FIP in 2010. I have a hard time believing that any of the others would beat that line. Of course, some might argue that putting Joba in the bullpen will also improve that area of the team, but I think that it really would not make for an appreciable difference. Having Joba and Hughes in the bullpen at the expense of the rotation seems to be a bit of overkill. A bullpen with Rivera, Hughes, Marte, Park, Robertson, and Aceves should be excellent, and throwing Joba in there at the expense of his development is uneccessary.
5) What Were The Joba Rules For?: The Yankees have carefully managed Chamberlain’s workload for three seasons to reach the moment where he can freely pitch as many innings as the club needs from him. Now that they have reached that moment, it seems silly to stick him back in the bullpen or send the minors. I am not suggesting that the Yankees stick with their plan for Joba blindly. Rather, I believe that the fact that 1) Joba still has the greatest upside and 2) might actually be the best pitcher for the job in 2010, makes sticking with the development plan the most logical and prudent choice. It is time to see whether Joba Chamberlain can be a long-term answer in the Yankees rotation.

Do you agree?

The headline is an obvious statement, but I had yet to see an actual number put on the gap between starting and relieving until now. Tom Tango said the following:

The replacement level pitcher as a starter has a .380 win%. Move that starter to relief, and his win% goes up by about .09, or .470 win%. That’s it.

The average starter has a win% of .490 and the average reliever has a win% of .520 (more or less, and by win% I mean based on his pythag component ERA). As you can see, the average reliever is not that much better than the replacement-level pitcher as reliever. That’s why we say relievers are a dime a dozen. So, the average starter is +.11 wins per 9 IP and he uses up two-third of the innings. The average reliever is +.05 wins per 9 IP and he uses up one-third of the innings. If you follow along, the average starter gives you twice the value, per inning, as the reliever, and he gives you twice the innings. That sets the value of the average reliever of 25% of the average starter (1/2 times 1/2). This number goes up a little when you add in the leverage impact of relievers.

When people bring up Joba Chamberlain and suggest he belongs in the bullpen, I frequently explain that starters are significantly more valuable than relievers, such that it makes sense to give him every chance to succeed out of the rotation. Even if Joba is a top reliever and simply an average starter, his value is almost certainly going to be greater taking the ball every five days. Unless he tanks entirely in that role, the “bull in a china shop mentality” and all of that psycho-babble garbage that gets spewed to support moving him to the pen should be viewed as largely irrelevant. The job of the team is to extract as much value as possible from Joba, and having him in the rotation is the best way to do so.

Pete Caldera of the Bergen Record has a nice piece out on Zach McAllister, one of the Yankees best-rated pitching prospects. McAllister, 22, is in camp this spring to show off his stuff after tossing 121 innings of 2.23 ERA ball for Trenton in 2009. Though he isn’t known for his strikeout totals – 96 last season – McAllister’s command and sinking fastball have him at the top of the Yankees’ list if the need arises for a farm system callup, at some point, in 2010. The 6′6″ right-hander will do his best during Spring Training to keep his name in mind before heading off to Scranton. “I know that they’ve been calling the younger guys up the last couple of years,” McAllister said regarding the prospect of a big-league appearance this season. “It’s one of those things where, if I go out and do my job and something happens at the big-league level, hopefully I’ll get my shot up there.” Last October, McAllister, a native of Illinois, was named the Yankees third best prospect by our very own, EJ Fagan.

Photo via Mike Ashmore

Yesterday at River Ave. Blues, Ben Kabak did a good job at breaking down a shoddy John Harper B-Jobber article. Both Moshe and I were planning on doing something like this, but Ben beat us to it and did a great job.

Instead of talking about the article now, though, I’d like to discuss the Joba/5th starter situation, and in more general terms.

First off, I know everyone–from Cashman, to Girardi, to Eiland, to Joba, to Hughes–has said that the fifth starter competition is just that: a competition. I don’t believe this for more than…five seconds. This job is Joba’s to lose. Obviously, the Yankees can’t come out and say that. It could send a bad message to the other players and it could lead to a sense of complacency in Chamberlain. Perhaps the Yankees are “gun shy” after guaranteeing roles to Hughes and Ian Kennedy before the ‘08 season. The results were rather ugly, so the Yankees have to at least put on the air of competition. But, in reality, the only way Joba isn’t the fifth starter to start the year is if he either completely loses it in Spring Training (like, Ankiel style) or gets injured. Neither one of those things seem likely.

The biggest reason that this isn’t a competition is because out of himself, Hughes, Aceves, Gaudin, and Mitre, Chamberlain is the only one to throw a full season last year. After that, it makes absolutely no sense to reduce his innings (unless he’s injured). The Yankees have put a lot of time and effort into securing Chamberlain’s future as a starter, even if they haven’t done it perfectly.

In 2007, the Yankees called Chamberlain up to pitch in the Major Leagues, even though he’d pitched fewer than 90 innings in the minors. The reason they did this was two fold: Chamberlain was approaching an innings limit and the Yankees needed bullpen help for the late season pushed. Obviously both things worked; Chamberlain’s innings were limited and he pitched brilliantly out of the bullpen. Of course, this got people talking. They said Chamberlain should be groomed as the eventual replacement for closer Mariano Rivera when the time came for him to retire. The Yankees, however, said that Chamberlain would remain a starter.

2008 is where things took a bit of a negative turn. 2008 saw the Yankees put two young starters in the rotation. The only problem was that neither one of them was Joba Chamberlain. He started 2008 off in the bullpen, only to be converted to a starter later that year. While he pitched brilliantly as a starter in that brief time, he eventually suffered an injury and returned to relieving after coming off of the disabled list. As a result, Chamberlain pitched only 100.1 innings in 2008. This short sighted move set Chamberlain back an entire year. With the injury and limited amount of starts, Joba actually pitched fewer innings in 2008 than he did in 2009.

Two routes could’ve, and should’ve, been taken to avoid this measure: either Chamberlain should’ve been allowed to compete with Hughes and Kennedy for a rotation spot or he should’ve started the year in Scranton, building up innings (and this is exactly what I want the Yankees to do with Phil Hughes). Then, he could’ve built up innings from the 112.1 he pitched in 2007 and could’ve been uncapped in terms of innings in 2009. Instead, poor planning an in jury set Joba back a full year.

Putting Chamberlain in the bullpen in 2008 set a bad precedent that was carried out again in 2009 when Phil Hughes was placed in the bullpen after a panic move, Chien-Ming Wang being hastily reactivated after a line drive hit Joba, even though he had been pitching decently in his previous starts. Because he wasn’t sent back to Scranton to start, Hughes pitched fewer innings than the Yankees had expected. If Hughes pitches out of the bullpen again in 2010, it’s unlikely he pitches more than 80 innings and will then be four years removed from his previous innings high of ~147 in 2006. That would not be desirable, as Hughes will likely be looked at to start in 2011. But, this piece is supposed to be about Joba, so let’s get back to him.

Now, this has seemed rather critical of the Yankees and maybe it should be. They did some things with Joba that I didn’t like. However, they seem to realize that developing him as a starter is the best thing they can do for him and, more importantly, for the organization. Consistently, they’ve stayed above the mediotic fray and stuck to the plan of keep Joba on the path to ace-dom. After 2009, it’s clear that it won’t be as easy as we all want it to be. Realizing potential that high is a process and Chamberlain still needs to take some more steps to get there. Joba clearly has the talent to arrive at the top of the Yankee rotation and with the application of hard work in 2010, he will come even closer to attaining that goal.

In a FanHouse piece in which Frankie Piliere outlines a handful of former prospects with something to prove in 2010, Piliere cites the Yankees’ young starter/reliever, Phil Hughes. “Bullpen or no bullpen, we saw the real Hughes start to shine through in 2009,” writes the former Texas scout. Piliere attributes Hughes’ newfound success to him seeming “more aggressive and comfortable in every way” last season, as these traits allowed the 23-year old to look like a “different pitcher” on the mound when compared to the discernibly diffident version we saw in 2008. Much of this aggressiveness, notes Piliere, was derived from Hughes’ confidence in one pitch, in particular—his fastball.

In 2009, working primarily as Mariano Rivera’s setup man, Hughes’ fastball averaged 93.7 mph. In 2008, as a starter, Hughes’ velocity averaged nearly 3 mph less at 91.2 mph. The noticeable uptick in velocity can help to explain the changes in Hughes’ demeanor from 2008 to 2009 as he was simply working with more gas last year, in a relief role (he could let it “fly”), as opposed to two years ago. As stated by Piliere, Hughes had “more confidence in his fastball command,” and, obviously, it is a lot easier to believe in your fastball when you throw it harder since added velocity means not having to worry as much about your overall location or control. The numbers bare this out with regards to swing percentage. In 2008, while in the rotation, hitters only swung at 16.5% of the pitches Hughes threw outside of the zone – he throws his fastball the most, so many of those off-the-plate offerings were fastballs – whereas, in 2009, hitters swung at 25.7% of the pitches Hughes threw that were outside the strike zone. Also, hitters swung at more pitches in the zone a season ago – 69.0% compared to 64.4% in 2008 – while making less contact (82.5% in 2009 as a reliever versus 91.5% in 2008 as a starter). Thus, pitching out of the ‘pen coaxed an extra 3 mph (roughly) out of Hughes’ California-bred arm, which basically led to his now vaunted confidence and celebrated aggressiveness.

This big question, of course, is whether or not this confidence, which was so essential to the Yankees in 2009, will remain with Hughes if he is reinserted into the rotation, where he will lose the added velocity he gained last season.

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If there is one phrase that sums up the argument as to why Phil Hughes should start 2010 at Triple A Scranton, it is “in case.” In case a pitcher gets hurt. In case Joba Chamberlain ends up being ineffective.

The prevailing wisdom is that neither Hughes nor Chamberlain should start the season in Scranton because they’ve got nothing left to prove in the minors and that their opponents would give them no sort of challenge. With this I agree. However, if Hughes (let’s assume Chamberlain’s got the starting job locked up) starts the season in the International League, it will not be about competition. It will be about building innings that he lost in 2008 due to injury and in 2009 due to pitching out of the bullpen. In the proverbial long run, having Hughes in Scranton for at least the beginning of the season in 2010 is the better option than having him begin the year in the bullpen as the set-up man. Would that option be better for the 2010 Yankees? Sure, you can make that argument. However, the step up from Robertson/Marte to Hughes is not very large and it’s not worth setting Hughes back another year.

2009 was very kind to the Yankee rotation in terms of injury. Maybe it’s just paranoia, but I think the chances of that happening again are pretty slim. In case CC’s big innings totals catch up to him…in case A.J. Burnett gets hurt…in case Andy Pettitte’s age catches up to him. In case any of those things happen, I’d much rather have Phil Hughes starting than any of the other alternatives. Shall I list the reasons why? Well I don’t see why not!.

Behind door number one, we have Sergio Mitre. Before going any further, I have a disclaimer: I do not like Sergio Mitre. At all. Anyway, there’s some hope for him, as he’s now farther removed from his Tommy John Surgery. However, sustained success has not come for Mitre in his 362.1 career innings. No, that’s not a big total, but it’s not as if he’s still a prospect at this point (he’ll turn 29 on the 16th of this month) and last year didn’t give me much confidence in him. Mitre starting more than once or twice through the rotation is not a good option for the Yankees.

Door number two gives us Alfredo Aceves. “Ace” was invaluable out of the bullpen in 2009 and that’s where he should stay. While his stuff is far from weak, it’s not the kind of stuff that can survive getting through an order more than once. His current role of swingman is likely where he’ll have the most success.

The final door gives us Chad Gaudin. Gaudin had a nice little season in 2009. He did a great job of keeping the ball in the park and striking out hitters (4.16 FIP) but the walks were a bit high (4.64 per nine), as was his WHIP (1.51, all combined SD/NY numbers). Aside from Hughes, I’d feel most comfortable giving him multiple starts, but if someone goes down, I still want Hughes to be ready to step in and start.

If Hughes is in the bullpen, he can’t do that. They could stretch him out from the bullpen over a period of time, but by the time he is ready to pitch enough innings to start, the injured pitcher could return. It’d be better to stretch Hughes out in Scranton so that if an injury does occur, he’s ready to take that pitcher’s spot immediately.

If an injury happens, the man who fills in for that pitcher will be more important to the Yankees than any one pitcher in the bullpen, simply because he’ll be getting many more innings. The best option for that role is one Phil Hughes, who should start the year pitching for the SWB Yankees.

Confidence is, of course, central to becoming anything of relevance in the big-leagues, including (and especially) a successful starting pitcher. With a five-man Spring Training competition scheduled to determine the Yankees’ final rotation spot, no one seems more confident about his chances than the young Nebraskan, Joba Chamberlain. Last night, at the Thurman Munson Dinner in midtown Manhattan, when asked about the looming spring showdown between he, Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin, Alfredo Aceves, and Sergio Mitre, the always upbeat Joba said, “I’m going in with the mind-set that it’s mine.” Joba’s unmistakably assured tone indicates that the 24-year old views the fifth spot as his property, a property he must protect in the coming spring, particularly from the likes of his friend, Phil Hughes.

In his latest piece, Joel Sherman of the NY Post writes that “the No. 5 starter competition between Chamberlain and Phil Hughes is almost over two weeks before pitchers and catcher even report,” with Hughes – not Joba, who posted a 4.82 FIP over 157 1/3 innings while in the rotation just a season ago – as the perceived victor. According to Sherman, the “Yankees never would admit it publicly, but if the season were to begin today, Hughes would be in the rotation and Joba would be Mariano Rivera’s primary set-up man — and, perhaps, heir apparent.” Sherman believes this to be the case because of Joba’s temperamental disposition, last season, as a starter – he often seemed tentative and uncertain – versus his disposition as a reliever in the postseason, when he appeared much more confident and aggressive. As stated by a Yankees official who recently spoke to Sherman, the differences in character between the two roles “was hard to miss.” For this reason, Sherman concludes that Hughes will inevitably triumph over his counterpart, Joba.

However, in my honest opinion, such a thought – this idea of conferring a valuable rotation spot to a pitcher based on temperamental perceptions – seems particularly nonsensical. For one, Joba Chamberlain’s seemingly tentative and meek personality as a starter can easily be explained by the common growing pains experienced by most young starters and which Joba was obviously no exception to in 2009 (despite Sherman suggesting otherwise). This – the rotational hardships he faced – in turn, influenced his outward character (it is difficult to be confident and aggressive when you struggle performance-wise). In addition, one must also consider that, as a reliever, Joba, for the most part, only utilizes two of his pitches—a fastball and a slider. Completely scrapping a few offerings and simplifying one’s game-plan is generally the norm for any starting pitcher turned reliever, as the fastball increases in its velocity and can be relied upon more often. Thus, it is considerably easier for Joba to “look” confident as a reliever because he is only throwing two of his pitches. As a starter, however, the entirety of his above average repertoire comes into play, and Joba must pick and choose specific pitches from a situational perspective. Hence the frustrating shake-offs and perceived timidness. This, then, is not, as Sherman would like us to believe, a matter of temperament, rather, it is a matter of experience – or, in this case, a lack thereof – and learning how to perform as a starter on a full-time basis.

Therefore, in the end, I refuse to believe that the Yankees would fall victim to the so-called logic outlined in Sherman’s piece and dictate season roles based on subjective evaluations of player temperament. Instead, they will consider a number of quantifiable and tangible elements (e.g., statistics, innings limit, velocity, mechanics, etc.) when reaching a decision, for this is how roles are ultimately distinguished. There is no particular personality that is specific to the role of starter, just as there is no preset character specific to the role of first baseman, utility infielder, setup man, closer, and so on and so forth. If this was the case and Joba Chamberlain’s strut-brandishing, fist-pumping, fiery demeanor means that he is better suited for work out of the bullpen, how, exactly, would you explain the existence of this guy:

Photos by Chris McGrath & Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

Steve already covered the whole Joba to the bullpen debate this morning, so I am not going to rehash it. However, there was one portion of Joel Sherman’s article from this morning that needed to be addressed:

Because aren’t the 2010 Yanks much better if both Joba and Hughes are in the bullpen? Think about it.
As long as they have health with their main veteran starters — Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte and Javier Vazquez — the importance of a No. 5 man dims.
The No. 5 competition could be among Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin and Sergio Mitre. The winner probably could pitch to a 5.00 ERA and still win in double digits because of the strength of the Yankees’ offense, but also because the No. 5 starter would be backed by a bullpen that had both Chamberlain and Hughes.
Manager Joe Girardi is very protective of relievers, anyway, and with both Chamberlain and Hughes available, he could continue on that path more comfortably while further diminishing the temptation to ever push Rivera into the eighth inning before the postseason.

Sherman later notes the primary reason that the Yankees would not do this, in that it would hurt the development of both pitchers and make them both question marks for 2011. Furthermore, if the Yankees have one injury during the regular season, the Yankees will either be forced to stretch one of the young guys out, always perceived as a dangerous move, or have a rotation with both Aceves and Chad Gaudin in it, a similarly precarious proposition. However, the issue I want to note here is this concept that the 5th starter slot is somehow less important than the other spots in the rotation.

5th starter is not a position or a role. It is simply the nomenclature used to describe the club’s 5th best pitcher. The 5th starter slot gets almost as many starts per season that the other slots get, and after the first few weeks, could be lined up against the #1 and #2 pitchers from other clubs. There is no reason to give up performance from the #5 spot just because the first four spots are adequately filled. In fact, considering that other clubs do not have 5 adequate starters, developing one in Joba or Hughes can create a competitive advantage for the Yankees relative to most AL clubs.

The Yankees should be working towards having their 5 best starters taking the ball on a regular basis. They simply need to look at this question not in terms of “the #5 starter against set-up man,” but rather in terms of “starter vs. one inning reliever.” Once you consider the issue in that framework, it becomes pretty clear that it makes sense to have one of the two young guns in the rotation, as having a good pitcher take the ball every fifth day is more important than adding a very good 7th inning reliever. The 2010 Yankees are not better with Joba and Hughes both in the bullpen.

Do you agree?

Last night, via Newsday’s Ken Davidoff, we learned from Yankees manager, Joe Girardi, that the final spot in the club’s 2010 starting rotation will be decided by a five-man contest this spring, one that features Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Alfredo Aceves, Chad Gaudin, and Sergio Mitre. Still, given practical concerns (i.e., Hughes’ innings limit and Chamberlain’s lack thereof) as well as the important matter of a recent starting track record, it appears as though Joba Chamberlain will be in the lead for that role, at least initially, with Phil Hughes serving as the Nebraskan’s foremost competition. Chamberlain, however, does not appear to be overly concerned by the situation.

According to the NY Post’s Mike Puma, Chamberlain, who will report to Tampa next week in order to effectively prepare for the upcoming season, will be training as a starter, because “[t]eam brass has told him to have that mindset.” When asked about the spring competition, Chamberlain stated, “I’m going to go in and understand a lot of guys are fighting for that spot. Nothing is guaranteed.” This is, of course, exactly why the Yankees have promoted the fifth spot in the team’s rotation as an up-for-grabs affair, one that will ultimately be awarded to the most effective arm in Spring Training (although I don’t think anyone truly believes that the competition is totally “open”). Chamberlain, who spent the majority of the 2009 season as a starter – he was more frustrating than brilliant – is headed to Tampa weeks in advance in order to prepare for the season and seems eager to prove himself. If you ask me, it looks as though the competition idea is already beginning to pay dividends for the Yankees.

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