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Creating Lineups

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 242011

We pretty much know what the 25 man roster is going to be at this point, so let’s see what the different lineups will be. Using the latest round of CAIRO Projections from RLYW.net, I’ll put the player’s projected wOBA vs. RHP/LHP next to his name/position.

These projections are a combination of what I think the lineups WILL be:

vs. RHP

1. Jeter, SS .334
2. Swisher, RF .353
3. Teixeira, 1B .381
4. Rodriguez, 3B .382
5. Cano, 2B .379
6. Posada, DH .352
7. Granderson, CF .363
8. Martin, C .333
9. Gardner, LF .336

So against RHP, everyone projects to be at least average, with the middle of the lineup solidly above that mark. The median wOBA is .353. Let’s see what they could do versus LHP; there are a few ways this could go.

Option 1 vs. LHP (Granderson sits, Gardner to CF, Jones to LF)

1. Jeter, SS .364
2. Swisher, RF .367
3. Teixeira, 1B .393
4. Rodriguez, 3B .392
5. Cano, 2B .354
6. Posada, C .358
7. Jones, LF .332
8. Martin, C .357
9. Gardner, CF .310

The median wOBA here is .358. That’s not much of a change from the vs. RHP lineup, but it’s still a slight uptick. If we replace Gardner with Curtis Granderson (and his .297 projected wOBA vs. LHP), the median wOBA stays the same, since his would then be the lowest wOBA instead of Gardner’s. So, quickly, that tells us no matter which lefty outfielder is replaced, there won’t be much of a difference in the lineup. I suspect Joe Girardi will just keep the hot hand in there until he cools. All three outfielders in that shuffle–Granderson, Gardner, and Jones, are good enough at what they do that neither will leave an extraordinarily huge hole when absent from the lineup.

Just about everyone, myself included, sees a bounce back for Derek Jeter. After all, how could we not? Last year was the worst year of his career and there’s almost no way he can be that bad again. I wonder, though, if his slide continues, will Girardi pull him from the leadoff spot? If he does, who takes his place? I say it’s one of Gardner or Swisher. Gardner could work because he sees a ton of pitches, walks, and can steal bases. Swisher could take it because he’s a switch hitter with no drastic platoon split and provides a little more power, which would be useful for those batting behind him. He does strike out a bit more, though, but he showed in 2010 that he can cut back on them.

The rest of the lineup is just fine if you ask me. You could switch Tex/A-Rod if you wanted to, but the difference would probably be negligible. If anything, this lineup gives me confidence that the Yankees can still make the playoffs. Any lineup that features those hitters has more than a puncher’s chance at making it to October. Making it through October with that (current) pitching staff would be a challenge, but this team can definitely make it there. And once you’re there, anything can happen.

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Expectations

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 032011

A new year is upon us and soon, a new baseball season will be upon us. We’re going to have expectations with certain players, as we always do. We have to think of realistic expectations, though. For this post, I’m going to look at each player still on the Yankees from the 2010 team, examine his 2010 wOBA and see if that’s a reasonable expectation for 2011.

Robinson Cano, .389 wOBA

Last year was a career year for Robinson. He ripped the cover off the ball and everything seemed to click for him on offense. He ripped righties and lambasted lefties. He hit for a high average. He hit for power. Expecting another year like that would be unfair, but, Cano is in his age-based-prime and clearly has an incredible talent for hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a .389 wOBA from him again. Somewhere in the .375-.385 range seems right for Robinson.

Nick Swisher, .377 wOBA

Cutting the fat, yeah, I think this is definitely do-able. His 2009 wOBA was .375, just two points off of last year’s career high mark. He had basically the same year production-wise, he just did it differently. I’m confident that Swisher can definitely put up a .370+ woBA again in 2011. What I’m not sure of is if it will look more like 2009 with a lot of walks and a lot of power or if it will look like 2010, with similar-but-slightly-diminished-power and a higher average.

Mark Teixeira, .367 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Mark Teixeira will have a wOBA higher than .367 in 2011.

Alex Rodriguez, .363 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Alex Rodriguez will have a wOBA higher than .363 in 2011.

Brett Gardner, .358 wOBA

This is the most interesting case. Obviously, Gardner proved himself in 2010. He survived the entire year and hit much better than we all expected him to. His super-plus defense made him a huge value for the team . Part of me thinks that Gardner can do it again. Part of me doesn’t. If I’m setting an over/under for Gardner’s wOBA, I’m going to say .340.

Jorge Posada, .357 wOBA

Posada’s another catch-22 of sorts. In one way, we should expect equal or worse performance from Posada in 2011 because he’s getting old. Older players, especially catchers, tend not to hit at .357 wOBAs with regularity. On the other hand, Posada is a good hitter who’s stayed above average in terms of offense for a while. As a full time DH, he’ll be without the physical burden of catching. Because of that, we could see a rise in offense from Jorge. I think .357 is a fair over/under and I think Jorge will be over. I may be in the minority there.

Curtis Granderson, .346 wOBA

Curtis Granderson’s season was a bit odd, wasn’t it? There were some good things–10% walk rate, .221 IsoP–but some bad things as well (most of the season against LHP). All together, it added up to an above average, but not spectacular, .346 wOBA. Call me an optimist, but Granderson will out do that .346 wOBA. I’ll put the over/under at .355 and take the over.

Derek Jeter, .320 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Derek Jeter will have a higher wOBA than .320 in 2011. Jeter may be getting older and 2010 may’ve been a career worst year, but there’s no way he can hit that poorly again. At least, I hope there’s no way he can hit that poorly again.

Francisco Cervelli, .315 wOBA

This is fair and I expect him to do that again. If he does, with less playing time, I’ll be happy.

Russell Martin, .306 wOBA

His 2009 wOBA was .307 after a .351 wOBA in 2008. Martin’s bat seems to be trending downwards, which is troubling. Despite a super low wOBA though, he was able to put up over 2 fWAR in 2010, thanks to his defense. In the last two years, Martin has had a low BABIP despite relatively high LD%s, so maybe 2011 is when he gets a BABIP rebound. That would definitely cause a wOBA rebound. Given the last two years, I think we should expect around a .310-.315 wOBA for Martin, but he could easily out perform that.

Ramiro Pena, .233 wOBA

Same as Cervelli.

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Looking Ahead

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Nov 292010

We’re all focused on the present. The Yankees have a bunch of pending transactions. They’ve made an offer to Derek Jeter; they’ll probably do the same to Mariano Rivera and Cliff Lee shortly. I’m sure there are other signings and trades that the front office is mulling over right now, too. But what about next year? There are some interesting personnel decisions to be made in a year’s time. Let’s run down some of them.

The biggest one involves CC Sabathia. While his contract does run to 2015, CC does have an opt out clause he can use after the 2011 season. No matter what, I think CC is going to exercise this option. I can see him hanging on if he has a bad year just because his value will be a little down. However, if he has an average CC year, I think he’ll opt out. If he does, the Yankees could just let him walk, or try to renegotiate at a lower AAV. While he’s been nothing but reliable in his career, CC will be approaching his mid thirties. Maybe the Yankees will want to let someone else pay for Sabathia’s decline phase.

Jorge Posada’s four year deal is up after 2011. Hopefully, this one won’t be an issue. Jorge will ride off into the sunset (hopefully to a sunset in Cooperstown) and Jesus Montero (happy belated birthday, Jesus!) takes over. Whether or not he retires, though, I’d bet on 2011 being Jorge’s last year with the Yankees. The only way I see him coming back is if he really mashes the ball as a DH and Jesus Montero can handle catching 120+ times a year, letting Jorge DH full time.

After 2011, Robinson Cano has a $14MM club option with a $2MM buy out. This is going to be a tough one. Cano just had his best season and it’s unlikely for him to repeat it. He’s still the best second baseman in the A.L., though. Unless he just tanks or gets injured, I’m relatively sure the Yankees will pick up Robbie’s option.

Like Cano, Nick Swisher has an option for the 2012 season ($10.25MM) with a $1MM buy out. The OF FA class of 2012 doesn’t look particularly strong and Swisher’s got a skill set that should age well. He’s also gotten himself into very good shape and doesn’t have a body that is likely to break down. I’d bet on the Yankees picking up that relatively cheap option and keeping Nick on patrol in YSIII’s right field.

This isn’t worth discussing much, but let’s give it one sentence. Damaso Marte has a $4MM option for 2012 with a $0.25MM buyout; it will be bought out.

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News Day: Pettitte, Arbitration Decisions, MVP, Cashman (Update)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:24 pm 13 Responses »
Nov 232010

Today was a day loaded with news, so let’s dive right in.

1) Ken Davidoff is reporting that Andy Pettitte is leaning towards a return to the Yankees in 2011. This is fantastic news, as it makes the Yankees a bit less reliant on signing Cliff Lee and means that they are likely to be at least as good in the rotation this coming year as they were last season.

2) The Yankees are going to offer arbitration to Kerry Wood and Javy Vazquez, but not Derek Jeter. The Jeter decision likely stems from a fear that he would accept it and make 18-22 million dollars next year, although it may have just been a good faith effort to show Jeter that they are committed to reaching a long-term agreement with him and do not want to unnecessarily injure his bargaining position. Javy has already agreed to decline arbitration, meaning the club will gain a supplemental draft pick once he signs with another club. Finally, the Wood decision was the most surprising, but the logic behind it is fairly sound. The market for relievers has been set at an insanely high level, so there is a chance that Wood rejects the offer to sign a long-term deal. If he accepts, the Yankees have an asset, either in the form of a good set-up man, or as a potential closer inked to a one year deal who would be an attractive trade chip. We have no word on Lance Berkman yet, but I doubt the team offers him arbitration. The market for him has failed to materialize, and I would expect him to accept the offer if it was made.

UPDATE: The Yankees did not offer arbitration to Wood. I think this illustrates the fact that the Yankees do in fact have a budget, and cannot simply give every player what they want or “deserve.” The possibility of being “stuck” with Wood for one year at 10-12 million dollars was too great for the Yankees to chance offering him arbitration.

3) Robinson Cano finished 3rd in the AL MVP voting behind Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, which is exactly where I had him on my imaginary ballot. He did not receive any first place votes but received the most second place and most third place votes. It was an excellent season and I am glad to see that he was recognized.

4) The Yankees and Derek Jeter continued to negotiate through the press, and Brian Cashman had some fairly strong words today:

“We understand his contributions to the franchise and our offer has taken them into account,” Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com. “We’ve encouraged him to test the market and see if there’s something he would prefer other than this. If he can, fine. That’s the way it works.”

[...]

“I was certainly surprised,” Cashman said in regards to Close’s use of the word baffled. “There’s nothing baffling about our position. We have actually gone directly face to face with Casey and Derek and been very honest and direct. They know exactly where we sit.”

[...]

“We believe that Derek Jeter is the best person to play shortstop for this franchise moving forward,” Cashman said. “Do we want to lose Derek Jeter? No. Do we want to treat Derek Jeter fair? Absolutely. Do we want to be treated fair at the same time? No question about it.”

[...]

Asked if there was any chance the negotiation could fall apart and Jeter could somehow wind up in a different uniform next year, Cashman said, “Not from us. We would like Derek Jeter to be a Yankee and we’re making our best efforts to keep that in play. But it takes two.”

I agree with every last word that Cashman said, and it is gratifying to see that the GM is on the same wavelength as much of the fan base on this issue. However, nothing was gained by making these comments publicly, and it is time for the Yankee brass to stop talking about this. All the talking does is entrench Jeter in his position, as he will look awful if he concedes now and takes the Yankees initial offer. I still thinks this gets done, probably for 3 years and 54-57 million, but both sides need to stop negotiating in the press and start hammering out a deal that is fair for the club while allowing Derek to save face.

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Take it or Leave it?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 5 Responses »
Nov 152010

Let’s play a game here. The Bill James projections for 2011 are out on FanGraphs. They’re a bit rosy for my liking (and everyone’s I assume) but I still wanna take a look at some aspects of them to see if I’d “take it or leave it” for 2011.

The first thing I’ll do is assume that Andy Pettitte is pitching for the Yankees in 2011. The category I’ll go for here is innings pitched. James has Andy pegged for 140 innings pitched, probably because he’s coming off of a season in which he pitched his fewest innings ever (min. 20 games started). Given Andy’s age and health from last year, I would take 140 innings from him. I’d like more, but I’d take what I could get from a guy as old as Andy.

James foresees 42 walks from Robinson Cano. He had 57 total in 2010. However, his previous career high was 39. I’d like to see if Robbie could push it to 60 walks in 2011, but I won’t take my chances. I’d take 42 and be on my way.

A .344 wOBA for Derek Jeter? Oh HELL yes I would take it. Not only would it be a 24 point increase from 2009, it would likely make Derek the most valuable offensive SS in the American League.

144 games from Alex Rodriguez. That’s not a lot, but it’s more than he played in during both the ’09 and ’10 seasons. Like Pettitte, given his age, yes, I’d take that. Expecting more could be greedy.

111 games for Jorge Posada? No, I’ll leave that one. By being able to DH, I think Jorge will be able to crack at least break the 120 games mark for the first time since 2007 (he played in 120 games in 2010, but I’m saying MORE than 120 games for 2011).

A 3.76 FIP in 177 innings for Phil Hughes. Yes. Without even thinking twice. I think Phil CAN break those marks, but I’m not sure if he WILL break them in 2011. He may be able to break the innings mark easily, but that’s a good FIP goal for him.

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Cano Wins Second Silver Slugger

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Nov 122010

Yesterday it was announced that Robinson Cano won his second consecutive Silver Slugger award. The other multiple winners in the A.L. were Joe Mauer (C, 4), Miguel Cabrera (1B, 3), Adrian Beltre (3B, 2), Josh Hamilton (OF, 2), and Vladimir Guerrero (DH, 8).

Since this is a Yankee blog, let’s focus on Cano and just how good he was. I’ve already discussed how badly Cano beat his projections, now let’s compare him to the average second baseman.

In 2010, American League second basemen hit rather poorly. Aside from catchers (.686), second basemen had the lowest OPS (.719) among the nine hitting positions. For the record, right fielders had the highest average OPS, .791.

Let’s compare Cano to the average second baseman. The average AL 2B had a line that looked like this:

.264/.328/.391/.719

Robinson Cano’s line looked like this:

.319/.381/.534/.914.

Cano beat the average second baseman by almost a hundred points in OPS. You wanna go advanced stats? Let’s go with advanced stats.

Among AL 2Bs, with at least 500 plate appearances, Cano just dominated.

He had the highest IsoP by .099 points.
He had the OPS by .193 points.
He had the highest wOBA by .066 points.
He had the most wRC by 41.8 runs created.
He had the most wRAA by 37.2 runs above average.
He had the highest wRC+ by 41.

So, yeah, he was really, really good. Hell, Cano had a great year for any position. The fact that he did it at second base just makes him even more valuable.

There really isn’t that much more to say about that. Robinson Cano is one hell of a hitter. Congratulations to Cano and here’s to many more Silver Sluggers to come.

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Jeter, Teixeira, and Cano Win Gold Gloves

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 6 Responses »
Nov 092010

The results are in, and somehow Jeter steals another Gold Glove:

C: Joe Mauer (3rd award)
1B: Mark Teixeira (4th)
2B: Robinson Cano (1st)
3B: Evan Longoria (2nd)
SS: Derek Jeter (5th)
OF: Carl Crawford (1st)
OF: Franklin Gutierrez (1st)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki (10th)

I fully support the Cano and Teixeira selections, despite the fact that the advanced metrics are mixed on them. Taken as a whole, the metrics see both as somewhere above average, and combining that with strong scouting reports and personal observation makes me comfortable with them receiving Gold Gloves. I feel the same about Brett Gardner failing to win: he was definitely in the conversation, but the three winning outfielders were deserving as well.

Jeter’s selection, on the other hand, is a travesty. He was likely one of the 2 or 3 worst shortstops in the AL this season. The metrics, scouts, and most fans agree that he is mediocre at best, and atrocious at worst. He won because of his reputation as a hitter, which is incredibly silly but quite unsurprising. As a Yankee fan, I wish we could just forget it ever happened.

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Money Savers and Drainers

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Oct 262010

As I like to do every season, I’m going to compare the Yankee players’ theoretical fWAR dollars to their actual salaries and see which players gave the Yankees the most value and which players drained the most money. We’ll do batters today and pitchers tomorrow.

We’ll do the list in WAR order (nine highest), then we’ll sum it up at the end.

1. Robinson Cano, 6.4 fWAR worth $25.5MM. Salary: $9MM. Value: +$16.5MM
2. Brett Gardner, 5.4 fWAR worth $21.6 MM. Salary: $0.425MM. Value: +$21.175MM
3. Nick Swisher, 4.1 fWAR worth $16.4MM. Salary: $6.75MM. Value: +$9.65MM.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3.9 fWAR worth $15.3MM. Salary: $32MM. Value: -$16.7MM.
5. Curtis Granderson, 3.6 fWAR worth $14.3MM. Salary: $5.5MM. Value: +$8.8MM.
6. Mark Teixeira, 3.5 fWAR worth $14.00MM. Salary: $20MM. Value: -6.00MM.
7. Derek Jeter, 2.5 fWAR worth $9.8MM. Salary: $21MM. Value: -$11.2MM
8. Jorge Posada, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.7MM. Salary: $13.1MM. Value: -$3.3MM.
9. Francisco Cervelli, 1.1 fWAR worth $4.4MM. Salary: $0.418MM. Value: +$3.82MM

Value Ranks:
1. Gardner
2. Cano
3. Swisher
4. Granderson
5. Cervelli
6. Posada
7. Teixeira
8. Jeter
9. Rodriguez

Italics means negative value.

This list should really surprise no one. The Yankees’ high priced, older talent had a bad collective 2010. Brett Gardner had what will likely be his career year while making just over the league minimum, so of course he’s going to return great value. And despite our frustrations with him, Frankie Cervelli did give the Yankees a bit of value this year. I think we’ll see the Melky Plan with Francisco: hang on to him while he’s cheap, then jettison him when he starts hitting arbitration and starts making too much money.

It also turns out that the Granderson deal was not some horrid thing that should’ve been undone. Granderson is relatively cheap for next year ($8.25) but goes up a bit in 2012 and ’13 ($10, $13 option) so granting a rebound year, he should return good value next year as well.

Nick Swisher makes only $9.75 next year so assuming he can repeat this year–or do something between 2010 and 2009–he’ll probably return value again, too.

As for the guys in the red, Teixeira is the only most likely to bounce back, considering his relatively young age compared to Jeter and Rodriguez and Posada. He also plays the least physically demanding position of the three and had a down year with the bat. I don’t think we’ll see the aforementioned trio in the black unless they have monster years.

Check back tomorrow when we look at the pitchers, starters and relievers.

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Collection of Thoughts Heading into the ALCS

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Oct 152010

We’re just a few hours away from first pitch in Arlington for the ALCS and here’s what’s swirling around my head on a rainy Thursday night after a fourteen hour work day (you, of course, will be reading this on Friday morning).

Just to get it out of the way, I’m predicting the Yankees will win the ALCS in five games. I’m not sure which game they’ll lose, I just think they’ll lose one. Winning in five would be nice because it would mean a second straight ALCS victory at home, and the more the team can celebrate in Yankee Stadium the better. I wanted the Yankees to play the Rangers instead of the Rays and I’ve gotten what I wanted. Hopefully, the Yankees can follow through on their end of the deal. Of course, I’m very confident that they will. Still, one thing is puzzling me.

I’d rather the Yankees start CC Sabathia on three day’s worth of rest in Game Four instead of A.J. Burnett, regardless of the score of the series. This really has nothing to do with Burnett–okay, mabye a little–I just want the Yankees’ best starter lined up to start in Game Seven. That’s also not to say that I don’t think Andy Pettitte could handle pitching in a potential Game Seven, I’d just rather have the team’s best pitcher out there when the season is on the line. However, the way they have it set up is that no matter what, the worst SP of the bunch will only pitch once in the series. That’s fine with me.

This article by Brendan Prunty is a must read. It just goes to show (again) how great a hitting coach Kevin Long is and how hard even the most talented players, like Robinson Cano, work on perfecting their crafts. If I ever again hear anyone say Robinson Cano is lazy, I’m going to slap that person in the face with a tire iron. Who’s with me?

Lastly, there’s this tweet from beat writer Mark Carig. Answering that question is nearly impossible and you could make a case for each one. For example, Adrian Beltre didn’t lead the Red Sox to a playoff spot, but he had a fantastic season and provided great value considering his relatively low cost.

For the Yankees, we could argue that A.J. Burnett, CC Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira paid for themselves by winning the 2009 World Series. The value/cost argument also holds true for the 2010 Yankees in regards to Marcus Thames. He was signed to a Minor League contract and ended up performing at a much higher level than we would’ve expected.

My ultimate answer, though, would be combining the value/cost versus raw performance arguments. After all, raw performance is what you really want, right? No matter how much or how little you sign a player for, you want him to put up big numbers. If the team doesn’t make the playoffs, that’s really not his fault, is it? I mean, do we blame the aforementioned Beltre for the Sox missing the playoffs? He did everything he could to make sure the Sox DID make it. If you can get a guy to play well AND have a relatively low cost, then you’ve won that signing in every way possible.

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The 100 RBI Club

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Sep 202010

Over the weekend, Robinson Cano eclipsed the 100 RBI mark for the first time in his career. Chances are we’re going to see Robbie do this multiple times over the course of his career, but since it was his first time, I wanted to examine his RBI numbers against his peers.

Not counting Sunday’s game, Cano has 101 RBI. That’s good for 7th in the league behind Miguel Cabrera (118), Jose Bautista (114), Alex Rodriguez (111), Vladimir Guerrero (107), Paul Konerko (105), and Delmon Young (102). He was tied with Mark Teixeira. What I’m going to do is use the B-R pages of these players, find their RBIs/base runners on and see who was tops in terms of driving in runs in terms of percentage of runners driven in.

Before going any further, let’s clear the air: I’m not a fan of the RBI statistic. It’s very incomplete and is very dependent on the players in front of the batter. If you don’t get up with a lot of guys in front of you, you’re not going to knock in a lot of runs. As for this piece, I’ll be examining runners on, which includes runners on first. It’s obviously very hard to knock in runs from first, unless you hit a homer or a triple. So, some of this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Still, I think it’s worth looking at since raw RBI is not great. This also doesn’t take into account hit type or if the player got on base some other way; it only tells us how many runners he drove in.

Let’s start from the top:
Miguel Cabrera: 118 RBI in 608 PA. Average MLer w/608 PAs: 66. Actual runners on base: 454. Avg. runners on base: 376. So, Miggy has had a lot more runners on than average. Given those numbers, the average percentage would be 17.55% of runners driven in. Miggy’s at 25.99%, so we’ll call it 26%. So, he’s doing more with more runners.

Jose Bautista: 113 RBI in 616 PA. Avg in 616 PA: 68. Act. Runners: 335. Avg. Runners: 383. Bautista, in the Toronto lineup, has had fewer runners on than the average player could expect. He’s driven in a much higher percentage–33.73–than the average–17.75. This is what happens when you unexpectedly belt over 45 homers.

Alex Rodriguez: 111 RBI, 529 PA. Avg: 58. Act. Runners: 392. Avg. Runners: 327. Shockingly enough, Alex Rodriguez has had many more RBI chances than the average player. He plays on the Yankees. Anyway, his percentage is 28.32% vs the average of 17.74%.

Vladimir Guerrero: 107 in 587. Avg: 64. Act. runners: 420. Avg: 363. Like A-Rod and Miggy, Vlad has had a good deal more runners to knock in than the average. His percentage: 25.48. Average: 17.63.

Paul Konerko: 105 in 584. Avg: 64. Act. runners: 358. Avg. Runners: 361. Konerko’s had a few fewer runners than we could expect, but has excelled in driving them in anyway. Average for 584 PAs is 17.73 (starting to see the pattern here). Konerko’s is 29.33.

I was actually pretty surprised that Delmon Young was on this list. Let’s see how he stacks up: 102 RBI in 553 PA. Average: 60. Actual runners: 417. Average runners: 342. DY%: 24.46. Avg: 17.54. Like everyone else on the list so far, he’s been better than average.

Robinson Cano: 101 in 628 PAs. Average: 69. Actual runners: 426. Average runners: 389. Percentage: 23.71. Average: 17.74.

Mark Teixeira: 101 RBI in 649 PA. Avg: 71. Actual runners: 440. Average runners: 402. Percentage: 22.95. Average: 17.66.

So, we can see that league average is right around 18%, usually coming in just a little less. Let’s re-rank the players, this time in terms of percentage of runners driven in:

1. Jose Bautista: 33.73%
2. Paul Konerko: 29.33%
3. Alex Rodriguez: 28.32%
4. Miguel Cabrera: 25.99%
5. Vladimir Guerrero: 25.48%
6. Delmon Young: 24.46
7. Robinson Cano: 23.71
8. Mark Teixeira: 22.95

We see that the guys who’ve had fewer runners on than expected–but still driven a lot in–are the ones at the top of the percentage list. This makes sense as they’ve done “more” with “less.” Tex has the most PAs and has the smallest RBI total (tied w/Robbie) so it makes sense that he’s on the bottom. Bautista’s homer barrage this year also helps him compensate for the lack of runners on, while Tex’s slow start hurt him. Tex’s slow start–and Alex Rodriguez’s absence–probably hurt Cano a bit, too. Regardless, each one of these guys has been well above the average player in terms of batting runs in. They’ve been given opportunities to drive runs in and they’ve come through. While we may not love RBI as a stat, the runs still do count and having guys who can drive a lot of runs in is always helpful. I’ll end this thought on RBI like I do with wins: most of the times, you’re not a good player because you drive in a lot of runs. You drive in a lot of runs because you’re a good player.

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