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The Red Sox made an excellent move today, signing Bobby Jenks to a 2 year, 12 million dollar deal. While some have suggested this means Jonathan Papelbon is on the trading block, I do not see how they would get nearly enough value for him in a trade for it to make sense. He is expensive and coming off a bad season, so any suitors will be loathe to take on his money and give up decent prospects. It is possible that Boston just lets him go to dump his salary, but I would not count on it.

I really was hoping that the Yankees would nab Jenks to deepen their bullpen. This is what I said last month:

Jenks is a good buy low candidate after what is perceived to be a poor season. With Matt Thornton returning to Chicago, I could see the White Sox and Jenks parting ways. Jenks has conditioning issues and clashed with Ozzie Guillen at times, but he is clearly an immense talent. Jenks had a 4.44 ERA in 2010, but was victimized by an astronomical .368 BABIP and a LOB% of 65.4. His FIP was 2.59 (xFIP of 2.62) and he struck out 10.42 batters per nine while walking 3.08. Scraping past the surface of blown saves and ERA shows that Jenks actually had an excellent year. He would be an excellent fit to replace Kerry Wood as the 8th inning guy, and his cost is the only issue that would scare me away.

2 years and 12 million dollars is quite a reasonable price for his services, so I think Brian Cashman was asleep at the wheel here. However, Mark Feinsand is reporting that the Yankees are looking into a superior pitcher:

According to a source with knowledge of the Yankees’ thinking, the Bombers are “exploring” the option of signing Soriano, the All-Star closer who pitched last year for the Rays.

With plenty of money to spare in the wake of Cliff Lee’s return to Philadelphia, the Yankees have held preliminary discussions with Scott Boras about Soriano, the source said.

The Yankees’ inability to land Lee has shifted their emphasis on bolstering the bullpen, using their unexpected slush fund toward doing so.

The Yankees had hoped to bring back Kerry Wood to serve in the primary setup role for Rivera, but the 33-year-old is said to be seeking a two-year deal worth $12 million, more than the Yankees are prepared to pay the oft-injured righthander.

In the case of Soriano – who 45-for-48 in save opportunities while posting a 1.73 ERA for Tampa Bay – Cashman is said to be willing to make an exception, paying him “closer money” to back up Rivera with the thought of the 31-year-old bring groomed to eventually succeed the iconic Hall of Fame-bound closer.

Soriano is better than Jenks, but he is also likely to be considerably more expensive and would cost the Yankees their first round pick. Being that the bullpen is more in need of solid depth than major star power, I do not think it would be prudent to sign Soriano to a large deal at “closer money.” Cashman should look into someone like Grant Balfour instead, who can give the club solid performance at a significantly cheaper price. (Edit: Oops, it seems Balfour is also a Type A free agent. Pass on that as well.)

Nov 302010

Two interesting articles regarding the two most important Yankee relievers were published today. The first (from RLYW) is about Mariano Rivera, and bodes well for 2011:

It’s a good bet he will need to be used less and less frequency because a 40-41 year old body just doesn’t recover like one that’s 30. That’s a legitimate point in discussing Rivera’s value, because value is not just about rate of performance. You’re not very valuable if you aren’t pitching.

Just because he’s now turned 40, there’s very little reason in his statistical record to think that he’s about to fall off a cliff. He certainly could, and he’s got the same risk any pitcher does of hurting his arm and becoming worthless….

Rivera’s CAIRO projection is still top tier for all relief pitchers, and it does include both aging and some component regression to the mean for his FIP and xFIP. For CAIRO, his projection for runs allowed is based on 35% RA, 30% ERA, 15% FIP, 10% xFIP, and 15% component ERA. So 40% of his projection includes data that is most likely to regress, and he STILL projects about as well as anyone.

He will eventually reach the point where he’s not an asset. But all the evidence we have says that’s not going to happen in 2011.

I think observation confirms the statistics in this case, as Mo looked as effective this season as he has been since he entered the league. He continues to exhibit excellent command and control, and rarely allows hard contact. The post makes some interesting comparisons and discusses Mariano’s ability to induce weak contact, and I recommend that you go to RLYW and read the full post.

The second article comes from Beyond the Boxscore, and confirms a troubling observation that some have made regarding Joba Chamberlain. Over the last two seasons, many have noticed that Joba’s slider seems to be flatter, tumbling rather than diving out of the strike zone. Considering that he has largely ditched his curveball and changeup, diminished effectiveness from the slider is a major problem for Chamberlain. Lucas Apostoleris used Pitch f/x to examine whether this observation is accurate, and his results are a bit unsettling:

The slider has both lost break and gained velocity, and the change has been particularly noticeable since September 2009. There was a higher percentage of hanging sliders in 2009 and 2010 than there was in 2008. The difference may appear slight, but as the saying goes, baseball is a game of inches. All in all, while the slider may not be filthy as it was in the old days, it’s still pretty great.

Joba’s slider is resulting in fewer swinging strikes, likely because it has gotten worse in many different ways. The pitch is being located higher in the zone, it has less vertical “drop” to it, and it has increased in speed (meaning there is less of a gap between the slider and fastball). While it remains a very good pitch, Joba likely needs it to be dominant now that he only has 2 pitches and the fastball has diminished in velocity. If he is truly to be the heir to Mariano, he needs to figure out how to harness his slider.

Oct 292010

Cliff Corcoran of the excellent Pinstriped Bible checks in on Kerry Wood:

Kerry Wood posted a 1.344 WXRL and 0.69 ERA with the Yankees, but he also walked 18 men in 26 innings. He was lucky. Opponents hit .236 on balls in play against Wood after he came over from Cleveland, and just 3.1 percent of his fly balls left the ballpark, down from a career rate of 8.6 percent. Meanwhile, he gave up fly balls and line drives more often than he had previously in his career.

Wood’s high strikeout rates allow him to get away with more walks more than a less powerful pitcher could, but walking 5.7 men per nine innings, as Wood did in 2010, is playing with fire, and his home run rate is sure to shoot back up next year, particularly if he spends half of his home games pitching in the new Yankee Stadium. Wood will be 34 in June and has a extensive injury history, which begs an unwelcome comparison to Marte, who turned 34 soon after signing his current contract.

Cliff goes on to note that there are better and likely cheaper options available on the free agent market, and that the Yankees could fill bullpen roles internally as well. I am partial to Scott Downs, a lefty who can actually get righthanders out, which would give Girardi more options in the late innings. However, Downs is a Type-A free agent, which means that signing him would cost the Yankees a draft pick. This is the one advantage that Wood has over the free agent options, as he would not cost the Yankees picks should they resign him.

Nevertheless, I would pass on Kerry. I think Wood is likely to disappoint the team that inks him to a pricey two or three year deal this offseason. He has been worth more than .4 wins once since 2004, and his inability to stay healthy combined with the general volatility of relievers make him a poor investment. He simply puts too many runners on base to be trusted regularly in important spots. During the regular season, you do not want to be forced to use your closer to bail him out in the 8th inning of games in which he does not have his control. Someone will sign him to close, and the lack of a safety net will prove problematic when he start to walk the ballpark. The Yankees got an excellent few months out of Wood, and they should be content with that and walk away.

Joe Girardi provided the Yankee beat writers with three little nuggets of news about Yankee pitchers this morning. Mark Feinsand has the scoop:

Phil Hughes will be skipped one start in the Yankees rotation to limit his innings, Joe Girardi said before Wednesday’s series finale against Baltimore. Dustin Moseley will start Sunday in Texas, and Hughes will return to the rotation next Wednesday in Tampa.

Also, Girardi said Alfredo Aceves (back) will not return this season, and Damaso Marte (shoulder) will “probably not” be back in 2010.

The news on Hughes has been a long time coming. He has thrown more innings this season than ever before in his career, and the baseline high that the Yankees seem to be using comes from 2006. He has already thrown 50 or so more innings than he did in any of the previous three seasons. Whether due to a tired arm or something else, Phil’s stuff seems to have suffered over the last few weeks, with his fastball command lacking and his cutter having little bite. Giving him 10 days off to rest his arm is a prudent move, as the Yankees will need Phil to give their rotation some depth in the postseason. Interestingly enough, as @dturkenk noted on Twitter, this also prevents Texas from seeing any of the 3 starters they would likely face if the two clubs met in the ALDS, as Vazquez, Burnett, and Moseley are now lined up to pitch over the weekend.

As for the loss of Marte and Aceves for the season, the emergence of Boone Logan and the acquisition of Kerry Wood soften what might have seemed like a devastating blow in May or June. Even if both players were healthy, neither was likely to pass the key relievers currently on the roster in Joe Girardi’s pecking order in time for the postseason anyhow, and would have been relegated to “last man in the bullpen” status. As surprising as this is to say, their injuries turned out to be no big deal.

Kerry On

Posted by Rebecca Glass at 6:03 pm 2 Responses »
Aug 262010

The following was originally posted at http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com

It’s been a long time since Kerry Wood struck out twenty as a Chicago Cub.

A long time, filled with injuries and disappointments and ultimately relegation to bullpen duty. Many point to Wood’s struggles, and that of another one-time Chicago Cub, Mark Prior, in being the impetus towards today’s obsession with young pitchers and doing everything possible shy of actual bubble wrap to protect them (see “Strasburg, Stephen” and “Joba Rules” (the latter under 2007/2008 entries) ).

It’s been a long time and I’m not sure how many ever thought he’d find himself playing for the Yankees–certainly not as a late inning reliever, and one fourth on the pecking order, after Mariano, Robertson and Joba–and yet, here his is, quickly becoming Cashman’s best mid-season acquisition of the year.

Just think about where the Yankees’ bullpen was before the deadline: outside of Mariano, and possibly Robertson, there was perhaps no one in whom Yankee fans had much faith. Joba may not have been blowing leads left and right, but it felt like it, and Logan pitched so poorly he was optioned to the minors.

Enter Wood, who as a Yankee has an ERA under one and thirteen strikeouts in 10.2 innings pitched (before Tuesday’s game). In fact, the only run Wood has allowed as a Yankee, inherited or otherwise, came on a solo home run–that on August 3rd, Wood’s second ever game in pinstripes.

He’s not allowed a run since.

In fact, if one looks at Wood’s gamelogs, one will see that 1/3rd of all runs Wood has given up this year came in one third of one inning against Kansas City on May 19th*

That’s not to say he hasn’t allowed baserunners–seven walks and nine hits as a Yankee (as of Tuesday afternoon) say otherwise–but no runs is still no runs.

When Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin seem to be battling to find out who wants to get DFA’d first and the starting rotation is such that only 2/5ths of it are healthy and pitching as they’re supposed to be pitching, Wood’s performance is a breath of fresh air.


One frequent complaint of baseball fans attempting to quantify the performance of relievers is the lack of a metric that provides an adequate representation of how a reliever impacts the game. ERA is faulty for players who frequently enter with runners on base, and other stats like inherited runners scored and WHIP tend to give only a partial picture. The save is the least helpful indicator, as it does not differentiate between a save with a 3-run lead and a much more difficult 4 or 5 out save in a one run contest. Attempting to remedy this situation, Tom Tango and Fangraphs have created a new metric for evaluating relievers, based on WPA. For those who are not familiar with WPA, here is a quick primer:

WE (win expectancy): The percent chance a particular team will win based on the score, inning, outs, runners on base, and the run environment.

WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.

Using WPA, they have devised a way to credit relievers for particularly good performances, called shutdowns, and give demerits for poor performances, called meltdowns:

A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.

A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game.

This is simply a more precise way to evaluate the impact the reliever had on the game, and considers the context of the situation, such that 2 runs allowed in a 12-2 game are weighed differently than the same 2 runs in a 4-3 game. In the comments, Tango notes that the ratio is 1.6 Shutdowns for every Meltdown, and that a poor reliever would have a ratio of 1 to 1. Let’s take a look at the Yankees bullpen and how it has performed in this area thus far:

The last two columns represent Shutdowns (SD) and Meltdowns (MD). It all seems fairly intuitive to me. Alfredo Aceves has been used in a number of tight spots, and his ability to eat 2-3 innings in an outing contributes to his good showing. Mariano and Joba have also been excellent, with the two of them combining for just one poor outing. Meanwhile, Boone Logan has been neither great nor poor, while Chan Ho Park and David Robertson have shown wild inconsistency. Finally, Damaso Marte has been atrocious, allowing a number of inherited runners to score. The metric seems to fit with the observed performances, and gives a quick and dirty way to measure impact on the game. I hope it catches on.


Mike Silva raised an interesting point this morning, one that often gets overlooked in all the hullabaloo around Joba and Hughes:

Everyone talks about Joba Chamberlain as the “heir apparent” but Robertson should be just as much in the conversation. If he qualified his 12.98 K/9 would be second to only Jonathan Broxton last season. The one thing he needs to work on is his command, but that hasn’t stopped K-Rod (4.1 BB/9) from carving out a great career as a closer…..
Look, no one will ever replace Mariano Rivera. There is also no indication he is ready to retire or hang it up. At some point, unless he isn’t human, there will be a need for someone else to take the reins. Even if he is still around perhaps a break would be necessary from time to time. If you want him to pitch two innings every postseason you might need to pace him during the regular season.
Robertson gets overlooked in the conversation, but a pitcher that can miss bats like him certainly should have a bright future.

As Silva notes elsewhere in the article, if Joba and Hughes both succeed in the rotation, the Yankees will be in the market for a closer. Can Robertson be that guy? Some would watch him and wonder how a guy with just two pitches, including a fastball that averages just under 92MPH, could be so successful and strike out so many batters. However, his curveball is excellent and he hides the ball very well in his delivery on the fastball, such that it has “sneaky speed” and plays more like 94-95 than 91-93. He has the minor league pedigree and major league success, he has the stuff, and he has the K-rate. So where are the flaws? Why isn’t he seen as a future closer?

Jim Callis was asked that question in his chat this week, and said the following:

Not sure I see him as a top-notch closer, but I love him as a setup man. Yet another guy whose prospect stock soared in the Cape Cod League.

I agree with Callis, simply due to the one issue that Silva raises: his BB rate (4.74 last season) is high for a top closer. K-Rod is simply the exception that proves the rule, and he has a better repertoire than Robertson. While Robertson could improve in that area, he has always walked plenty of hitters, with a minor league BB-rate of 3.6. Even if he drops the walk rate below 4, that will still be significantly higher than most elite closers. Putting a lot of runners on base through the free pass is a dangerous prospect for a person who will often be pitching with a one run lead and the game on the line. I could see Robertson closing for some other clubs, but for a team that is used to the greatness that is Mariano Rivera, I think David will have to be satisfied with being the setup man.

The headline is an obvious statement, but I had yet to see an actual number put on the gap between starting and relieving until now. Tom Tango said the following:

The replacement level pitcher as a starter has a .380 win%. Move that starter to relief, and his win% goes up by about .09, or .470 win%. That’s it.

The average starter has a win% of .490 and the average reliever has a win% of .520 (more or less, and by win% I mean based on his pythag component ERA). As you can see, the average reliever is not that much better than the replacement-level pitcher as reliever. That’s why we say relievers are a dime a dozen. So, the average starter is +.11 wins per 9 IP and he uses up two-third of the innings. The average reliever is +.05 wins per 9 IP and he uses up one-third of the innings. If you follow along, the average starter gives you twice the value, per inning, as the reliever, and he gives you twice the innings. That sets the value of the average reliever of 25% of the average starter (1/2 times 1/2). This number goes up a little when you add in the leverage impact of relievers.

When people bring up Joba Chamberlain and suggest he belongs in the bullpen, I frequently explain that starters are significantly more valuable than relievers, such that it makes sense to give him every chance to succeed out of the rotation. Even if Joba is a top reliever and simply an average starter, his value is almost certainly going to be greater taking the ball every five days. Unless he tanks entirely in that role, the “bull in a china shop mentality” and all of that psycho-babble garbage that gets spewed to support moving him to the pen should be viewed as largely irrelevant. The job of the team is to extract as much value as possible from Joba, and having him in the rotation is the best way to do so.


Mike Silva spoke to Chad Jennings last night, and Jennings suggested that the Chan-Ho Park addition could result in Alfredo Aceves beginning the year in the minors. Here’s how:

Rivera, Robertson, Marte, Joba/Hughes, and Park. I would put Aceves as a lock, but what if Melancon or Albaladejo have a great spring? Don’t forget Chad Gaudin who the Yankees brass likes. The Yankees rotation is going to give length on most nights and Park is someone that could go 2 innings plus, if necessary. Last year he was called on for two or more innings eleven times by Charlie Manuel.
Another thing going against Aceves is the fact that he has options. Gaudin will need to clear waivers if he is demoted. Knowing the state of pitching in the game it’s hard to imagine another team not claiming him if he has a good spring. Aceves might very well become a victim of the numbers game.

Basically, the idea is that Park might make carrying Aceves and Gaudin redundant, such that the club would be inclined to take a one inning type reliever such as Melancon rather than both Aceves and Gaudin. Being that Aceves has options and the others do not, he would be the odd man out.

The one thing that bothers me about this idea is that I’m not so sure Melancon or Albaladejo are better one inning relievers than Aceves at this point. If Aceves only provided flexibility over the one inning type options, I would understand giving that up for better performance due to the flexibility of the other Yankee relievers. But if the Yankees believe that Aceves is the better pitcher, he should not be sent down simply because his greatest attribute is something that the Yankees have plenty of. Hopefully, the Yankees take their seven best bullpen arms north.

What do you think? Is there a scenario under which you would send Aceves to AAA?

Oct 122009

Earlier today, while offering his own ALCS predictions, Steve noted the following regarding the upcoming showdown between the Yankees and the Angels:

I think this series comes down to a battle of the bullpens, and the Yanks win that handily.

Steve is right on with his assessment. If the Yankees can maneuver through the likes of John Lackey, Jared Weaver, and Scott Kazmir (and possibly Joe Saunders), then they’ll face an LA bullpen that has been exposed as a team weakness throughout the regular season.

In ‘09, the Angel bullpen has sported a 4.27 FIP, which is actually better than the Yankees’ mark of 4.33. However, looking beyond FIP, there are some flaws nesting within the Angel ‘pen. For instance, while the Yankees’ relief corps has walked 3.46 batters per nine innings — the second lowest BB/9 in the AL — LA’s relievers have walked 3.85 per nine, the 5th highest in the league. In addition, the Angels’ bullpen has put up relatively weak strikeout numbers when compared to the rest of the AL. With a K/9 of 7.41 — the 6th lowest in the league — the Angel bullpen isn’t as imposing when compared to previous years (the Yankees 8.44 K/9  is the best in the AL).

Essentially, the Yankees won’t be facing Scot Shields, Kelvim Escobar, and K-Rod this ALCS. That was a pretty tough group. Instead, they’ll have to deal with Bulger, Palmer and Fuentes, which could end up being a good thing.

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