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Players to Watch, NL Central

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Mar 112010

On Monday, I widened my scope on baseball and listed some players to watch for the NL West. Today, I’m gonna run down the not-too-highly-regarded National League Central Division. Despite producing a World Series winner recently–the 2006 Cardinals–fans, especially those of the AL East tend to think of the NL Central as one of the weakest divisions in the game. Regardless, there’s still some good talent there.

Let’s start, as we did with the NL West, with the 2009 division winner, the Cardinals. The guy we need to watch here is rather obvious: Colby Rasmus. As a rookie in ’09, he put up “meh” numbers at the plate overall–a .311 wOBA–but his IsoP was a respectable .156. His fielding in center field was also impressive, as he posted a 13.4 UZR/150 in 124 games. In 2010, we should watch for Colby to continue his impressive fielding and also to improve on his hitting. He’s projected to wOBA anywhere from .329 (Marcel) to .343 (CHONE). Those numbers may not be “blow-you-away”, but paired with his fielding, they would make him about a three win player.

For the second place Cubs, there are two guys upon whom to keep an eye. The first is an old friend: Xavier Nady. After what was essentially a career year in ’08, Nady missed most of 2009 with an elbow injury and is now recovering from Tommy John Surgery. The list of position players coming back from a second TJS is rather small, so it will be very interesting to see how Xavier fares this year.

The second Cub to watch is Geovany Soto. After an impressive Rookie of the Year season in 2008, Soto disappointed in 2009. While the peripherals were pretty solid–.103 IsoD, .163 IsoP–his raw numbers were pretty bad: .218/.321/.381. Part of this could’ve been bad luck. His BABIP in 2008 was a robust .332, but was a meager .246 in 2009. Gevoany had a slight dip in Line Drive percentage and a slight uptick in Ground Ball percentage in 2009, and his Fly Ball percentage stayed essentially the same. While the rise in ground balls might suggest more hits (ground balls are more likely to sneak through the infield than fly balls are to drop in the outfield), it appears that they were gobbled up by infielders, which obviously led to more outs, as did the slight fall in line drives. If those numbers can rebound, it’s possible that the Cubs’ backstop will have another strong season.

Moving to Milwaukee, we move to the left side of the infield. With the trade of J.J. Hardy to the Twins, young Alcides Escobar will man shortstop for the Brew Crew. In 2009, he hit .304/.333/.381 in 38 games (134 PAs). Escobar is very fast and if he improves his patience at the plate a bit and plays well in the field, he’ll be a solid player for the Brewers in 2010.

Cincinnati’s Joey Votto turned some head last year after a second place ROY finish in ’08. He pounded the ball in ’09–.303/.414/.567–and after dealing with an anxiety issue, he seems poised to pick up in 2010 where he left off. He hit 25 home runs last year and playing in Cincy, he’s definitely got a chance to crack thirty in 2010. First base is already rich with talent–Pujols, Tex, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Youkilis–and Joey Votto is ready to climb into the ranks of a top first baseman in the Major Leagues.

The Astros don’t really have much going for them. There isn’t much exciting young talent patrolling Houston, so I’m going to go with the vet: Lance Berkman. I pick Fat Elvis for a simple reason: I don’t think we realize how good this dude has been in his career. His line sits at .299/.412/.555/.967/147+. In an 11 season career, he’s gone at least .300/.400/.500 seven times and has had an OBP of at least .420 four times. Last year was a “down” year for Berkman–.274/.399/.509 and his OPS+ was “only” 139. It will be interesting to see how Berkman recovers. This year, and the next ones, will be crucial in cementing his legacy. If there is a quick decline–unlikely–it may rob him of Hall of Fame inclusion. If he picks it back up–or just stays at his current pace–Berkman should be destined for Cooperstown.

Pittsburgh, baseball wise, doesn’t usually have much to look forward to. However, Andrew McCutchen could change that. He was very impressive in his rookie season–11.0% BB rate, .185 IsoP, .368 wOBA, 128 wRC+–and we should all be looking to see what he builds on in 2010. We’ve likely got a budding star on our hands and even if it’s out of a misplaced, and probably inappropriate, sense of pity, it’s nice to see the Pirates have a young star they’ve developed on the rise.

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Jonny Gomes is still out there

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 042010

As Spring Training approaches, the Yankees’ 2010 lineup, as I see it, is not yet complete. Currently, a pair of of the team’s starting outfielders – Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner – could potentially encounter issues with left-handed pitching this season. If we, for a moment, forego sample size criticism and believe that Curtis Granderson might actually experience some southpaw struggles throughout the year, and that Brett Gardner, who has yet to play a full big-league season, might also meet his share of left-handed offensive woes, then perhaps it would be wise for the Yankees to add a right-handed bat in order to “reverse leverage” a possible and significant split-based weakness. The move would not only serve as a precautionary measure, adding a pinch-hitter for critical in-game situations, but, it would also further the team’s depth, at large, which could be an issue with Nick Johnson on hand as the DH. With Reed Johnson, an ideal candidate to fulfill such a role, off the board, maybe Jonny Gomes is the next best thing?

I have written about Gomes already, outlining his strengths and weaknesses a few weeks ago, however, a quick rehash is in order. In terms of strengths, most importantly, Gomes mashes against left-handed pitching. His career slash line against said southpaws is an impressive .274/.369/.517, indicating a particular talent – a lefty-killer – the Yankees are reportedly seeking. Furthermore, Gomes’ power – he hit 20 home runs last year over 98 games with the Reds (127 OPS+) – would serve as the perfect compliment to Brett Gardner’s lack thereof. Basically, the 29-year old’s bat, against left-handed pitching, is his strength. Now, in terms of Gomes’ weaknesses, it is safe to say that his defense stands as the primary concern. His UZR totals are somewhat fuzzy due to the lack of a sizable data sample, however, based on what we have and can cobble together from scouting reports, the assessment of Gomes’ glove is certainly not flattering. If anything, he is not a good defender, nor is he an average defender. He is clearly sub-par. It is seemingly okay to assume, though, that working as a part-time player would limit such defensive shortcomings.

While some, like our own Matt, may prefer a more well-rounded player with offensive and defensive value like another former Ray, Rocco Baldelli, in my opinion, perhaps it would be best for the Yankees to simply accept Gomes‘ poor glove for what it is, especially with Randy Winn’s great glove now available, and sign him, rather than to rely on a player like Baldelli, who suffers from some severe health issues. Gomes looks like a good pickup given the team’s needs and the current market. Of course, the Reds seem to be closing in on him with a minor-league deal (for a player who hit 20 homers a year ago?), but maybe he would relish the chance to return to the American League East, and to a proven winner.

Photo by Getty Images

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Reds sign Chapman for $30M

Posted by Chris H. at 2:29 pm 18 Responses »
Jan 102010

Via MLBTR, from Jeff Passan (Yahoo! Sports) we learn that Aroldis Chapman has signed a 5-year, $30 million deal with an NL Central club. Passan speculates that the Reds, who have never really been linked to Chapman outside of today, might be the team, as Chapman is actually on a flight to Cincinnati as we speak (or at least he was).

If it was going to take $6 million per to sign Chapman, an unproven pitcher, I’m glad the Yankees passed.

UPDATE – The Reds have signed Chapman. Passan has confirmed the deal.

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Did the Yankees miss out on Arroyo?

Posted by Chris H. at 12:02 pm 7 Responses »
Aug 142009

When Jeff Flecther (AOL Fanhouse) inaccurately reported that the Yankees were working on a Bronson Arroyo deal with the Reds, just prior to the trade deadline, I wrote the following:

I think this would be a terrible trade for the Yankees. Arroyo has been bad on the road and at home for the Reds. However, before condemning, let me try and understand the Yankees’ thinking for a moment. Over the past 3 seasons in particular, Arroyo has become a second-half performer. His post-AS splits include a 3.90 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a .254 BAA. Last season, he posted a 5.97 ERA prior to the All-Star break, and then put together a 3.47 ERA after the All-Star break. The Yankees are probably interested in those numbers.

Soon after Fletcher’s report, it was reported that the Yankees were never truly interested in Arroyo, as there were a few payroll and performance-related concerns. The team has since added Chad Gaudin, Russ Ortiz and Jason Hirsh for depth, while Sergio Mitre remains in the rotation. However, in hindsight, maybe trading for Arroyo would have helped solidify the Yankee rotation.

Since the break, Arroyo has delivered on his second-half status, tossing 41 2/3 innings of very solid baseball. In fact, last night, he pitched a complete game (against the Nationals, but still, it’s a CG), lowering his second-half ERA to 3.02 (1.15 WHIP). Of course, Arroyo has pitched against the Padres, Giants and Nationals since the break, which explains some of his success, but against teams like Oakland, Baltimore and Toronto—teams which Sergio Mitre has faced—I think he could have been as effective.

The Yankees could still make a move for Arroyo since he has cleared waivers, however, his contract is sizeable (he’s owed $11 million in 2010 and has a $2 million buyout for 2011). If they were going to trade for him, it probably would have been best to do it prior to his noticable resurgence so that Cincinnati would have taken on a chunk of his salary and settled for a middling prospect (or prospects). His value has risen, though (although not significantly so), and with that I ask would he be a worthwhile target—given his history—or should Mitre (with Gaudin in tow) continue to get the nod?

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Yanks get Jerry Hairston Jr.

Posted by Chris H. at 3:28 pm 34 Responses »
Jul 312009

Joel Sherman has the news. Hairston, 33, was acquired from the Reds, where he hit .254/.305/.397. He can play the OF—all three positions—and some IF (3B, 2B, SS). Hairston isn’t as fast as Gardner (not even close), but he offers some speed and is a good OF defender while his defense in the IF is passable (I’m not sure about third, though). Solid bench move for the Yankees. I wonder if this ends Cody Ransom’s tenure with the club?

UPDATE – Jonathan Mayo is reporting that the Yankees might have sent Austin Jackson to the Reds in this deal though that hasn’t been confirmed. I refuse to believe that Brian Cashman would make such a move.

UPDATE – Mayo is now saying that the Jackson info is inaccurate. Whew…

UPDATE – The Yankees traded Chase Weems for Hairston.

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Yanks discussing Arroyo with the Reds

Posted by Chris H. at 6:14 pm 8 Responses »
Jul 272009

From Jeff Fletcher of AOL Fanhouse:

The Yankees are in serious discussions with the Reds about acquiring Bronson Arroyo, although right now the deal may be hinging on how much of Arroyo’s remaining contract the Reds are willing to eat, major league sources told FanHouse on Monday. “It will get done,” one source said.

I think this would be a terrible trade for the Yankees. Arroyo has been bad on the road and at home for the Reds. However, before condemning, let me try and understand the Yankees’ thinking for a moment. Over the past 3 seasons in particular, Arroyo has become a second-half performer. His post-AS splits include a 3.90 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a .254 BAA. Last season, he posted a 5.97 ERA prior to the All-Star break, and then put together a 3.47 ERA after the All-Star break. The Yankees are probably interested in those numbers. Let’s hope that, if Cashman does trade for Arroyo, his splits will translate to his old home, the AL East.

UPDATE - If Fletcher’s report is accurate, it would contradict Tyler Kepner’s writeup from earlier today, in which he noted that the Yankees “have zero interest in Bronson Arroyo of Cincinnati.”

UPDATE - According to FOX Sports, Arroyo’s start on Tuesday has been scratched due to ongoing trade talks. However, Mark Sheldon (MLB) claims that he’s still starting.

UPDATE - According to Ed Price, the Yankees have 2 scouts in Cincinnati and Arroyo is expected to start tomorrow. Still, the scouting presence in Cincy indicates that something is brewing, to paraphrase Price. I’d like to see the Yankees acquire Aaron Harang instead of Arroyo. Maybe we’ll hear more after tomorrow.

UPDATE - Is Hal Steinbrenner’s presence being felt? The Yankees seem to want the Reds to take on more of Arroyo’s contract. Others—like Tyler Kepner and Peter Abraham—are reporting that there’s no chance the Yankees go for Arroyo.

(props to MLBTR)

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