Over the weekend, Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record compared Yankees second baseman, Robinson Cano, to Boston’s Dustin Pedroia. At one point in the text, Klapisch discusses the two in terms of fielding ability, and concludes that Cano is actually a better second baseman than Pedroia. “In this regard,” he writes, “Pedroia doesn’t come close to Cano – he can’t duplicate his rival’s range to his right and that signature ability to throw to first base while moving in the opposite direction.” However, it seems that Ultimate Zone Rating disagrees with Klapisch.
According to FanGraphs, which Klapisch later uses to discuss offense yet did not use to justify his defensive evaluation (for whatever reason), Robinson Cano’s career UZR is -26.8 and his career UZR per 150 defensive games is -5.4. On the other hand, Dustin Pedroia’s career UZR is +21.7 and his career UZR per 150 defensive games is 7.4. With regards to defense, there is a fairly large gulf, run-wise, between the two, with Pedroia reigning supreme. While I do think that UZR actually underrates Cano – a product, perhaps, of the way in which his “smooth” style of play is perceived, i.e., as not trying hard enough – to say that Pedroia “doesn’t come close to Cano” with a glove is quite a reach. Based on what I have seen, Cano has a better arm and range to his right, but Pedroia, with his speed and instincts, seems to react better and, as a result, can often cover more ground, overall (he was 7.5 range runs above average in 2009, and Cano was 2.5 runs below average). Would most fans agree with that assessment? I think so.
Cano has the potential to improve significantly, and become a better second baseman, but, as of right now, if I were building a defense-first team and were forced to choose between he and Pedroia, I would probably take the latter.
Photo by Reuters
Jonathan Papelbon loves him some Mariano Rivera.
Here’s Papelbon discussing Mariano last month, on Boston’s the Sports Hub:
“Deep down in my heart, I would love to finish my career as a Red Sox. And I think everybody pretty much knows that, but that’s a very, very hard thing to do in this day and age. And the way the game is now, I have to understand that as well. Hopefully it works out to where I can stay here for a while and win World Series and break records in a Red Sox uniform like my buddy Mo [Mariano Rivera] has done over there in [Yankees] pinstripes.”
And here he is today, discussing Mariano again during a press conference in Florida:
Did you watch the postseason after you guys were eliminated?
I didn’t watch a whole, whole lot. I tried to watch guys like [Mariano Rivera] and see what they were doing, try to keep track of it as best as I could. I didn’t watch a whole lot, like I said. But obviously Mo is one of those guys who I’ve idolized in the role, and what he’s done for the role, what he’s done himself as a closer. He’s got five rings. That speaks for itself. Everybody else that’s a closer out there is pretty much chasing him. I think he’s set the tone for what it is to be a closer, and I think he’s bridged that gap, from closers 10 years ago to closers now. He’s been able to do both and to bridge that gap. It’s fun to watch him. It’s fun to see how he goes about it, and it’s fun to kind of compete with him on a level of kind of staying up with him. If you can stay on the same field with him, you’re doing something right.
He’s had his postseason hiccups. Does that make it easier for you to put last year in context?
Of course. I’ve talked to [current Red Sox and former Yankees bullpen coach] Gary Tuck about that a lot. He was obviously with Mo for a greater part of his career. There’s a lot of little nuances that we talk about, from his game to my game. That’s what makes him who he is, and that’s what makes an athlete who they are – how they bounce back. In this game, that’s what’s going to test you to see what you’re made of. I take it all full steam ahead. It doesn’t affect me. I’m not going to take it into this season. My whole goal this season is to start a streak over again, see what happens from there.
Can you imagine pitching into your 40s?
Yeah, I can, but it’s not an easy thing to do. Mo, he just makes it look easy. He makes it look easy. Hopefully I will be able to, but only time will tell.
Like with the Joe Nathan item I posted yesterday at iYankees, it’s always fun to read of the praise heaped onto Mariano Rivera from other closers in baseball. While many of them hope to emulate his remarkable success, it is difficult to see any of them crafting a comparable resume or nearing the “aura” and “mystique” that is an intimate part of his legend. For now, as Papelbon said, everybody else is “pretty much chasing” Mariano, though I wonder if anyone can actually catch him.
Photo by John Munson/The Star-Ledger
The BoSox “lineup” above isn’t a legitimate one, I just ordered it that way for an easy comparison.
All the UZR/150 figures are based on a three-year period (collected via FanGraphs), though there were some players that simply did not offer much in the way of fielding data at their respective positions. For instance, prior to 2009, the last time Nick Swisher was a regular right fielder was in 2005, during his tenure in Oakland, therefore, three-year UZR/150 measures were difficult to compile. In such cases (Swisher, Gardner, Scutaro, Ellsbury), which are demarcated via an asterisk (*), I opted to utilize Jeff Zimmerman’s UZR/150 projections for the upcoming season. Not sure if that was the best method to employ, but the numbers are fairly conservative, so it seems to work.
With that said, what is to make of the numbers? What we can glean from this comparison is that while the Yankees are not a poor defensive team by any means (and Mark Teixeira is likely underrated here), they do have troubling matching up against Boston’s group of gold gloves. Losing Jason Bay, adding Mike Cameron, shifting Jacoby Ellsbury to left, and installing Adrian Beltre at third so as to replace the aged and fragile Mike Lowell has significantly improved the club’s ability to prevent runs. The Yankees will most likely improve, defensively, with Curtis Granderson and Brett Gardner (his projection is, again, conservative), but, beyond that, there isn’t much to write home about, really.
Any thoughts on the defensive differences between the two teams (or on the numbers featured)?
Yesterday, I discussed my feelings about UZR, and suggested that a weighted average of 3 years worth of UZR data would be a more useful metric than our current version of UZR. I was informed that Fangraphs does in fact have a leaderboard for defense that can be sorted into a “past 3 seasons” category, which is not weighted but does provide a relevant sample. Glancing at the list, the thing that struck me was that no Yankee was listed in the top 35 for UZR/150, while a number of Red Sox and Rays were, and only two Yankees had a positive UZR/150 over the time span. Here are the relevant defenders, among qualified players (those who have relevant samples at their primary position):
4) Carl Crawford
13) BJ Upton
14) Adrian Beltre
17) Kevin Youkilis
19) Dustin Pedroia
20) JD Drew
30) Mike Cameron
32) Mike Lowell
39) Curtis Granderson
49) Mark Teixeira
51) Carlos Pena
Obviously, this is simply anecdotal and does not say much about team defense. It does suggest, however, that the Red Sox, and possibly the Rays, have the components necessary to having a significantly better defensive team than the Yankees. Brian Cashman does seem to be cognizant of this, as the two Yankees on this list have been brought in over the last two offseasons. Hopefully, he can continue remaking this club into a team that can excel in all facets of the game.
This winter, both the Yankees and the Red Sox added new center fielders to their respective rosters. Of course, the Yankees traded for Detroit’s Curtis Granderson, who is primarily known for his speed, power, and potential, while the Red Sox inked the accomplished veteran, Mike Cameron, in the hopes that his stellar defensive reputation benefits their ball club (Cameron can still hit, too). With that said, I wonder, who ultimately landed the better center fielder?
For the answer, to WAR we go (WAR totals are from 2006-2009):
One could certainly make the argument that Mike Cameron is actually a more effective player, or at least that he has been the more effective player (consistently) because of his enduring defensive value. Then again, Granderson’s potential, as seen in 2007, is certainly notable. Despite the statistical histories, if I could have either player at the same cost, it is Granderson’s innate ability to develop into something greater than he currently is that seems to trump all.
But, if I were forced to hazard a guess as to who will provide more value, according to WAR, in 2010, Cameron is likely the safer choice, although he could experience a dramatic age-driven regression. On the other hand, Granderson, with his five tools, can easily beat him if he manages a better line against lefties and improves a bit defensively.
Given the elements involved, it is difficult to assess which team obtained the better center fielder. Perhaps if we limit the question to this season — who obtained the better player for 2010 — Cameron could be seen as that guy. However, Granderson has much more promise than his aged Boston counterpart, which is obviously important.
In the end, both players will likely be effective this season (maybe equally so). We might be able to leave it at that.
Photos by the AP
Yesterday, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that, along with the Mets, the Yankees were out of the Aroldis Chapman sweepstakes, with Olney citing a general front office concern as to whether or not Chapman was better suited to serve as a reliever or a starter (spending $20 million or more on an eventual bullpen cog seemed problematic).
The decision to bow out of the market for the prized Cuban southpaw made a certain degree of sense beyond role concerns, as well, as Chapman is far from a polished prospect. He needs to improve upon his overall command, which was fairly poor in Cuba, while bettering the quality of his breaking pitches. For these reasons, according to the Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham, the Yankees believe Chapman must begin his American career in the lower minor leagues, in Single-A ball, but he and his representation seem to disagree. Therefore, despite the talent inherent to his spidery left arm, the Yankees’ decision, while disappointing to some, was certainly understandable. Furthermore, last night, it appeared as though the Angels were nearing a deal for Chapman, so perhaps the hunt was over.
Today, however — there’s always a “however” — we hear from a report that conflicts with Olney’s, for it states that the Yankees could still be in on the Hendricks brothers’ sought after young client. According to Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, “[c]ontrary to reports that have pegged the Angels and Blue Jays as favorites to sign the 22-year old pitcher, the Red Sox remain very much in the picture, [with] one major league executive predicting that either the Sox or Yankees will sign him.” The executive added, “This one is for the big-money teams,” although I think it’s fair to call the Angels, who are in the top ten for team payroll, a “big-money team,” too. If Boston, a club which offered Chapman a $15 million contract a few weeks ago, prior to his representation switch, is still in the thick of it, I would think that the Yankees, so as to drive up the price for the Red Sox, would at least stay in the race on a superficial level.
So, could we see some sort of surprise Aroldis Chapman signing by the Yankees this week? I definitely wouldn’t count on it, as most recent reports seem to favor the Angels or the Blue Jays and Olney ruled the Bombers out yesterday (he’s generally believable). However, if Gedes’ executive is, indeed, accurate, for those in favor of adding Chapman — and I know there are a number of you — I guess you can view his latest report as a glimmer of hope.
Either way, he’s poised to sign soon, so the speculation will finally conclude.
Photo by the AP
From Ken Rosenthal, although Ed Price originally broke the story:
Free-agent right-hander John Lackey underwent a physical Monday with the Red Sox, an indication that he is close to an agreement with the team, according to a major-league source.
The deal is expected to be similar to the five-year, $82.5 million contract that the Yankees awarded free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett last winter.
If the Sox sign Lackey, then they would have the best rotation in baseball (led by Beckett, Lackey, Lester).
The signing could help the Yankees pursue a Roy Halladay or a Matt Holliday, though, as Boston is likely out of the bidding for those two players (unless they can acquire Halladay without giving him an extension). I’m sure many will sound the alarm and argue that the Yankees should now acquire Halladay, however, in my opinion, I don’t think he’s a necessary piece for the team.
Sorry to cite this, but, via Dan Shaughnessy (Boston Gobe):
In an e-mail to the Globe’s Amalie Benjamin last month Henry explained that the Sox might not be as good this year, writing, “Those reali ties are a function of available talent and age-related transitioning once again, as we did prior to 2007.’’
Tuesday at the winter meetings in Indianapolis, Epstein hammered at the same theme with “we’re kind of in a bridge period. We still think that if we push some of the right buttons, we can be competitive at the very highest levels for the next two years. But we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period.’’
If the Red Sox don’t add an offensive piece to left field — for instance, if they choose not to resign Jason Bay or sign Matt Holliday — will they be able to compete with the Yankees for AL East supremacy next season? In my opinion, it seems unlikely (and perhaps the front office knows that). They could add defense-first pieces rather than offense-first pieces, such as Mike Cameron, who is still solid offensively, or, after trading Mike Lowell, Adrian Beltre. This would help them to limit runs scored against Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and the rest of their staff, but it would not help much with regards to scoring runs, something that they seemingly need given the state of David Ortiz’s bat and the lack of offensive production provided by the newly signed Marco Scutaro (then again, if the team’s defense allows fewer runs to score, then their offense won’t need to score as many to win). The Sox don’t seem eager to add Roy Halladay, either, ergo, I wonder if they have the pieces necessary to best the Yankees in the division come 2010.
There’s always the Wild Card, which I’m sure they’ll compete for, but still…
According to Frankie Piliere (FanHouse), the Aroldis Chapman Sweepstakes is an expensive one. Therefore, most mid-market teams will bow out of the proceedings, leaving the Red Sox and Yankees to battle it out for Chapman’s prized left arm. The situation seems pretty simple to me if this is the case, though. The Yankees want Chapman and have more money to spend than Boston. Therefore, I think he’ll end up in pinstripes by the end of the year.
He’s rumored to command anywhere between $15-50 million. What do you think? Is he worth it?
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
From Jose Arangure Jr. (ESPN), we learn that prized Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman is in New York today to meet with officials from several teams, including the Yankees. Arangure considers the Yankees and the Red Sox the primary suitors for Chapman and believes that he will receive a deal in the $40-60 million range (a lot of money, yes).
You can read more about Chapman, here.
Props to MLBTR
