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Tampa Series Wrap Up

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Apr 122010

The Yankees took the second series of the year, two games to one, over the Tampa Bay Rays when they won today’s game 7-3 with some late runs and a “grind it out” type performance from starter A.J. Burnett.

Game One wasn’t all that great, as the Yankees lost 9-3. Javy Vazquez’s return to pinstripes was pretty bad and David Price looked downright unhittable.

Game Two featured a near miss with history, as CC Sabathia threw 7 2/3 of no hit ball before his former teammate Kelly Shoppach knocked a single to left. The offense also came alive, with everyone but substitutes Ramiro Pena and Randy Winn (one at bat between them) reaching base at least once. Robinson Cano led the way with a homer and three batted in.

A.J. Burnett recovered from a shaky first inning in Game Three and the offense kept clicking as well, though it took them a while. Tampa starter James Shields pitched a strong 5.1 innings, allowing 2 runs while striking out five, but the bullpen fell apart. The Rays’ relievers gave up five runs in 3.2 innings, the big blow being a two run homer by Jorge Posada that put the Yankees ahead for good. Again, every batter but one (Brett Gardner; Randy Winn had 0 PAs) reached base at least once.

Now, some things that impressed me during the Fri/Sat/Sun series:

–Obviously, CC Sabathia. I didn’t see innings 7-9 of this game, but everything I saw of CC was just pure nastiness. He was insane all day.

–David Price on Friday night was filthy as well. During the first few innings, the Yankees looked helpless. He was throwing absolute smoke. His fastball averaged 94.6 MPH per Brooks Baseball and topped out at 96.8.

–That A.J. Burnett was able to right the ship after a rough first inning was refreshing. As we watched the rough bottom of the first, my girlfriend and I looked at each other and she said “Well, I guess bad A.J. showed up today.” Luckily, we were wrong and Burnett pitched well the rest of the way. That he walked three while striking out just one was concerning, but that he was able to limit the damage to just two runs was encouraging.

–The outfield defense of both teams, particularly that of the left and center fielders, was great this series. Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton get to absolutely everything and Curtis Granderson has been great, too. Crawford and Upton are guys that I hate to root against because they’re so talented and fun to watch. The A.L. East could be the best division in terms of defensive outfielders. The aforementioned players are great, and that’s without talking about guys like Brett Gardner, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Jacoby Ellsbury (who will likely be better in LF than he was in CF), and Mike Cameron.

Up next, the Yankees have an off day Monday, then they open Yankee Stadium III for the second year. They’ll be taking on the Angels from Tuesday through Thursday, then the Rangers come to town for Friday though Sunday (I’ll be there Saturday; anyone else?). The match ups for the Angels series:

Tue: Ervin Santana vs. Andy Pettitte
The current Yankee lineup has hit Santana pretty hard, to the tune of an .832 OPS in 180 PAs. Derek Jeter has had the most success against Santana, hitting .435/.519/.739/1.258 in 27 PAs.

Wed: Scott Kazmir vs. Javier Vazquez
In stark contrast to Santana, Kazmir has handled the current Yankees well in the 191 PAs they’ve had against him. They’ve managed just a .636 OPS with a disastrously high strikeout rate (25%) and just three home runs. Jorge Posada (1.114) and Mark Teixeira (1.667) are the only current Yankees with an OPS ABOVE .538 against Kazmir. Yikes.

Thu: Jered Weaver vs. Phil Hughes
Like they do to Santana, the Yankees hit Weaver well. Their collective OPS against him is .988, thanks to a .640 SLG against him. Both Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez have hit four homers against Weaver. Nick Swisher and Teixeira have two a piece, and Jorge Posada has one. With 13 homers in 142 PAs against Weaver, that comes out to a homer about once every eleven at bats. Posada (.571) and Jeter (.462) are the only Yankees (with at least ten PAs) that have struggled against Weaver.

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Players to Watch, AL East

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 2:17 pm 1 Response »
Apr 032010

This is my second to last post in this series, as I’ll have a special one for the Yankees themselves up tomorrow before the game. You can find the other ones at the following links:

AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West

Starting with the Sawx, I’m gonna peg Clay Buchholz as my player to watch. He seemed to be putting it together at the end of last year, and should finally get an entire year in the Major League rotation. Will this be the year that he finally steps into the big shoes the Sox expect him to fill? He’s got the talent, now he just needs to come through.

Moving south, we should keep an eye on B.J. Upton. After a subpar 2009 (at the plate), we’ll have to see if Upton’s bat makes a return. While he had a fantastic 11.8 UZR/150, B.J. only hit for a .310 wOBA. His BABIP was down to .310 from .341, so we could expect a rebound. For the first time in a full season, Upton’s walk rate was not in double digits (9.1). His 27.1% strikeout rate was also very shabby, especially considering B.J.’s below average .132 IsoP. Considering his excellent defense, if Upton can just catch back up to his ’08 wOBA (.354), he’ll be back in the conversation for best all-around CF in the game.

Shooting back up north, the Blue Jays don’t have a whole lot to look forward to. Brett Wallace should be up at some point, though, and it’ll be fun to watch Kyle Drabek in the minors. At the Major League level, let’s watch out for Vernon Wells to see if he can start living up to that insane contract. Call it a hunch, but I think he’ll rebound from this awful season (.314 wOBA) and hit back at his ’08 level (.357). I know he’s definitely not as good as his 5.8 WAR season in ’06, but I don’t think he’s as bad as he was in ’07 and ’09.

Wrapping it up with the O’s will be my 2010 AL Rookie of the Year pick Brain Matusz. He shot up through the minors in ’09 and had a very respectable cup of coffee (44.2 IP in 8 GS, 7.7 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.71 K/BB, 4.08 FIP). Given a full year in the Majors, this high-upside lefty could emerge as Baltimore’s best pitcher by year’s end.

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Six more starts for Joba?

Posted by Chris H. at 12:30 pm 10 Responses »
Aug 252009

Well, I guess it’s 5 starts after today’s game against Texas.

From George King III (NY Post):

Joba Chamberlain isn’t wild about the innings limit on his right arm and how it has led to long stretches of inactivity in the second half. But he admits his arm is in very good shape.

“I feel great,” said Chamberlain, who starts tomorrow night against the Rangers at Yankee Stadium. “I feel a lot better at the beginning of the year. It’s a win-win situation for everybody.”

Chamberlain last worked Aug. 16 at Seattle and will be going on eight days rest tomorrow. Chamberlain says he will get six more starts this year and if he averages the 5 2/3innings per start he has in 23 games so far that will get him to 160 2/3 innings for the season. That’s more than the 140-innings set in spring training but a total the Yankees wouldn’t be uncomfortable with.

If the Yankees truly cement their AL East lead as the regular season comes to a close, maybe Joba’s final few starts can be given to someone else so that the team can limit his innings total as much as possible, prior to the playoffs. Perhaps we’ll see Chad Gaudin or Anthony Claggett get a start in, instead. That would seem like a wise decision given that the Yankees face teams like Baltimore, Toronto, Seattle and Kansas City in September (they also face Tampa Bay and Boston). Joba’s cap is influenced by the way the team plays, though, down the stretch.

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Rays Regression?

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 4:15 pm 8 Responses »
Apr 022009

Last year, I couldn’t help but be a little bit captivated by the whole Rays phenomenon. I was a believer from even before the season started, though I admit to thinking they’d hit some kind of prolonged dry spell some time during the season that they never actually hit. They were an easy team to root for, with their speed, defense and teeming corps of young, exuberant starlets, especially as they took on the purportedly unbeatable Boston Beaneaters.

But you crazy kids had your dream season and enough is enough, right?  Yesterday’s brash prodigy is today’s annoying punk.  I’m sick of these brats and am looking forward to a fresh 2009 without them biting at our heels.  They’re bound to regress, after jumping so many games from 2007, right?  Not according to the NY Times’ Tyler Kepner in this article, here.  He doesn’t go into too much depth, but he, and a growing trend of other pundits, seem to feel that they are for real, and many are predicting a second year of reigning atop the A.L. East.  So what’s the deal?  Are the Rays as good as they were last year (or even better) or are they likely to regress to a good, but probably sub 90 win team?

Offense:

The biggest knock on the Rays is simple: they can’t score runs (supposedly).  Looking at last year’s stats, that’s not necessarily true.  They finished in the middle of the A.L. pack last year in runs scored (ninth), partly due to losing major contributors like Crawford, Navarro, Longoria, and Pena for large chunks of the season (none of them reached 500 ABs).  Moreover, their WOBA was excellent (6th – just behind the Yanks), and their BABIP was a little high (sixth) but not alarmingly so (very comparable w/ the Yankees), so they shouldn’t see a major regression in that area.  If anything, they should be a little better with the bats this year.

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ESPN Baseball Today Predicts Yanks to finish 3rd in AL East

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 2:25 pm 9 Responses »
Mar 312009

I was listening to Friday’s ESPN Baseball Today’s podcast and was less than shocked to discover they had predicted the Yankees to finish third in the A.L. East. Now, I have no problem with anyone picking the Yankees behind Tampa or Boston. They are both tremendous clubs, and I think it’s pretty much a toss up between which of the three mega-powers will emerge from the division. I did have a problem, however, with the ignorant reasoning that went along with their prediction.  There are two specific issues I want to address.

#1: The Yankees were predicted to win 87 or 88 games. What!!!??? This is just sheer lazy thought. All Karabell and Pascarelli had to do was look at the records last year to find that the Yanks won 89 games with 2 decent starters but now, with 5 starters ranging from solid to studly, the Pinstripers will somehow win LESS!? They offer zero explanation for why they will win less games despite substantial upgrades at catcher, first base and each rotation spot.  Additionally, every major statistical projection model in existence has the Yankees winning at least 90+ games, and there’s a good reason for that: these models actually look at statistics!

#2: The Yankees have a shaky bullpen which is much worse than Boston’s. This is more lazy, unprepared commentary that is a typical belief among the media types who don’t bother looking at statistics. One easy glance at the rankings last year will show that the Yanks had the 5th best pen in the A.L. which was two spots BETTER than Boston, despite having to pitch over 60 more innings!!  Anyone with any knowledge of the game will tell you that overextending a bullpen due to poor starting pitching will wreak havoc on bullpen stats, yet the Bombers were a solid fifth despite pitching the third most innings in the A.L.  They’ve also fortified the pen by having Marte and Coke available all year, which should make them among the most versatile relief corps in all of baseball.  Add in probable appearances by young studs like Melancon and Robertson by mid-season and there’s little question that the pen should be better, yet somehow Pascarelli and Karabell insist that it’s sooo much worse than Boston’s?  How does that make any sense?

I would have some sympathy for these guys because they have to cover all of baseball and can’t be expected to have detailed knowledge of the vagaries of every single club, but this wasn’t an off-the-cuff series of answers to some live q & a session.  This was a prepared segment in which they had time to do research in advance.  They knew they were previewing the A.L. East and had plenty of time to take a long look at all the relevant stats, but they clearly did not do so.  These are the clearest and most obvious stats to look at, so they obviously did absolutely no research at all.  They just lazily mailed in their performance without even trying.  Come on guys, I know the podcast is free, but take some pride in your work.

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Rotations: Rays vs. Yanks

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 1:45 pm 12 Responses »
Feb 032009

We’ve spent some time delving into the hated Red Sox, but there’s a new kid in town that’s being virtually ignored by most of us who have become so accustomed to the Beantowners being the Big Bad we need to knock off every year. Are the Rays for real, or was last year a fluke? Well, probably the greatest predictor of success (other than being declared “dead” by Chris “Mad Dog” Russo”) is the rotation , so let’s have some fun with the respective starters and compare the two clubs.

For this post, I’m mainly using the CHONE projections as most of the buzz I’ve been hearing lately is that they’re liked slightly better than Marcel. The Bill James projections are generally disliked as being overly optimistic. I’m also going to pair similar pitchers together for better comparison rather than matching them up by their place in the rotation. For example:

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