IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

Frank Piliere Releases Top 100 MLB Prospects List

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 102011

Frank Piliere of AOL Fanhouse released his top-100 MLB prospects yesterday. The Yankees came out pretty big.

#4 Jesus Montero: “He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero’s bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.”

#13 Manuel Banuelos: “Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn’t. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.”

#34 Gary Sanchez: “Most organizations would sign up for having Sanchez as their top prospect, but he doesn’t even get the title of top catching prospect in his organization. That may soon change, however, as Sanchez’s bat rivals Montero’s at the same age and he looks like he’ll be a better defender.”

#44 Dellin Betances: “If not for his injury history, Betances would likely be toward the top 20 in this list. The owner of a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup, the towering right-hander has all the components you look for in a frontline starter.”

#60 Andrew Brackman (No Commentary)

And in his online chat, every other question was about Yankee prospects. On Banuelos:

[Comment From Jay CT]
What is Banuelos’s ceiling, and what ML pitcher could you compare him to?

Frankie Piliere: You know I get this question a lot. I use to not agree with the Johan Santana stuff but it’s probably the most accurate one if you have to pick a current big leaguer. He’s similar in size, velocity, and command to the Santana of a few years ago. The changeup is not as unhittable as Santana’s and he isn’t the pure strikeout machine Santana was. But there’s definitely some comparable aspects. I think Banuelos is a number one in the making. Not to say I told you so but I screamed about him last year at this time. People like to just talk about the new velocity but A. his velocity didn’t spike as much as people say. He went from 90-92, 93 to 92-95. and B. his game goes far beyond just raw stuff

[Comment From T-Dubs]
Assuming both had perfect health, is Betances a better prospect than Banuelos?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of Yankee questions. That’s difficult. I might be in the minority but I still think I take Banuelos. I absolutely love Betances’ stuff but the more bust proof guys are the guys with a great feel for pitching and that’s definitely Banuelos.

[Comment From Kim Last]
Would you take Banuelos or Hellickson?

Frankie Piliere: There’s a battle of two guys I absolutely love. Long term give me the lefty with the power stuff. Banuelos

On Jesus Montero:

[Comment From Ben Kabak]
How overrated is Montero? He won’t even catch.

Frankie Piliere: I’ll go with….not overrated. Let’s say for argument’s sake he doesn’t catch. He’s still an elite bat. And, I think he will catch so that’s why he’s up there on the list.

[Comment From Trevorlon]
Do you think the Yankees will move Montero to the outfield in the future or is he a dh?

Frankie Piliere: I’m sticking with him as a catcher. I know I’m in the minority but I’ve seen him enough to see improvement and enough to be an adequate defender.

On Gary Sanchez:

[Comment From Zak]
Gary Sanchez was 25th on your list midway through the season and he was bumped back, even though he finished strong, IMO. Was that due to overrating him on your previous list or something else?

Frankie Piliere: Just a mild adjustment. Now there are 2010 draftees to consider, and I saw more of the new players in instructs and the AFL. Certain no drop in stock for Sanchez. He’s as good as ever.

On Austin Romine:

[Comment From Zak]
Thanks for doing a chat! Austin Romine was 15th midseason on your list and no where to be found, unless my eyes are bad on your top 100 list. I got to see him and it just looked like he was flat out exhausted to me. Is there another reason why he was bumped off so badly?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of things can change huh? Yeah, with all the new draftees considered now and seeing guys more, I just started slowly sliding Romine back. He was one of the final few cuts. He definitely wore down I think. The 15 ranking could have been reactionary on my part because I don’t feel he’s dropped THAT much in status. But he’s slipped a bit, no doubt.

On Dellin Betances:

[Comment From jake h]
You are super high on Dellin. Do you see him as a starting pitcher?

Frankie Piliere: I definitely see him starting. Three average or better offerings and improving command.

On Adam Warren:

[Comment From Zak]
Adam Warren is one of my personal favorite from the Yankees farm system, seems like he doesn’t get too much love as he’s always grouped with Phelps, DJ Mitchell, etc as a backend of the rotation starter. I’m not saying he’s front line, but isn’t he at least worthy of a middle of the rotation type? He’s got good stuff!

Frankie Piliere: I like Warren better than the two others you mentioned. You’re right that he probably doesn’t get quite enough love. He’s not a finesse guy. He runs up into the mid 90s at times and relies on that fastball. But his secondary stuff continues to improve. He’s a middle of the rotation starter.

On Andrew Brackman:

Comment From Trevorlon]
What’s the ceiling of Andrew Brackman and where does he project as a starter?

Frankie Piliere: Let this serve as another opportunity for me to say i was wrong about Brackman. I was very down on him going into the season and he really resurrected himself. He’s a tough guy to project though. Still a bit inconsistent and at that size I think repeating his delivery will always be a challenge. I’d say he’s a #3 just because his command will never be completely consistent.

He offers a strong defense of Montero’s defense, plus great words about Betances, Banuelos, and even Adam Warren.

This is already a long post, so I won’t say much more, except one thing. I know that a lot of readers get a little worried that the powerful optimism about the Yankee farm system is just the product of some collective Yankee blogger Zeitgeist. Piliere is both one of the smartest guys out there publishing about prospects and has no vested interest for or against the Yankees. And he just compared Manuel Banuelos to Johan Santana. Think about that one.

Tagged with: , , , , , , ,

Top 20 Yankee Hitters Of All Time?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 21 Responses »
Feb 022011

Over at Bleacher Report, they came up with a list of the top 20 Yankee hitters of all time. The list:

1. Babe Ruth
2. Lou Gehrig
3. Derek Jeter
4. Mickey Mantle
5. Joe DiMaggio
6. Don Mattingly
7. Bernie Williams
8. Yogi Berra
9. Earle Combs
10. Billy Dickey
11. Tony Lazzeri
12. Roy White
13. Bob Meusel
14. Thurman Munson
15. Phil Rizzuto
16. Jorge Posada
17. Roger Maris
18. Wade Boggs
19. Frank Crossetti
20. Bobby Richardson

I look at this list with a big fat blank stare. Wade Boggs? Frank Crossetti? Jeter over Mantle? Bernie Williams over Yogi Berra? Bob Meusel ranked 13th all time? If we’re including players like Wade Boggs, where is Alex Rodriguez? And what the hell is Bobby Richardson, Mr. .299 OBP, even doing in the top-40? He’s a big reason why Mantle didn’t get more RBIs.

Here is my list, using the following criteria: overall contribution as a position player, more credit to post-Jackie Robinson era players, and limited to contributions as a Yankee.

1. Babe Ruth
2. Mickey Mantle
3. Lou Gehrig – Loses to Mantle because of era
4. Joe DiMaggio – Beats Jeter because he gets credit for losing ages 28-30 due to WWII
5. Derek Jeter
6. Yogi Berra
7. Jorge Posada
8. Alex Rodriguez – Seriously, Wade Boggs over Arod?
9. Billy Dickey
10. Bernie Williams
11. Don Mattingly
12. Willie Randolph
13. Tony Lazzeri
14. Thruman Munson
15. Earle Combs
16. Roy White
17. Phil Rizzuto (Points for defense)
18. Graig Nettles
19. Dave Winfield
20. Charles Keller

Because I’m only rating their career as a Yankee, some greater part-time Yankees like Ricky Henderson (better than Wade Boggs), Reggie Jackson, and Tim Raines get left off the list.

I didn’t give players a handicap for being injured, but I did give them points for things completely out of their control like being drafted or dying in a plane crash. I strongly believe that Don Mattingly is incredibly overrated, while Jorge Posada is incredibly underrated. I knocked Tony Lazzeri and Earle Combs down quite a bit because they played in a comparatively uncompetitive era, and got to hit next to Gehrig and Ruth.

But that’s my list. Discuss.

Tagged with:

Looking at Hector Noesi

Posted by EJ Fagan at 5:00 pm 12 Responses »
Sep 222010

Hector Noesi, Right-handed Starting Pitcher

Ranked 4th best Yankee Prospect

Year Age Tm Lev ERA G GS GF IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006 19 Yankees Rk 1.29 5 0 2 7.0 5 1 1 0 1 11 0 0.857 6.4 0.0 1.3 14.1 11.00
2007 20 Charleston A 4.50 5 5 0 20.0 25 10 10 2 8 11 0 1.650 11.2 0.9 3.6 5.0 1.38
2008 21 2 Teams Rk-A- 3.33 14 7 1 48.2 43 23 18 7 10 55 2 1.089 8.0 1.3 1.8 10.2 5.50
2008 21 Yankees Rk 3.65 9 2 1 24.2 23 11 10 2 3 24 1 1.054 8.4 0.7 1.1 8.8 8.00
2008 21 Staten Island A- 3.00 5 5 0 24.0 20 12 8 5 7 31 1 1.125 7.5 1.9 2.6 11.6 4.43
2009 22 2 Teams A-A+ 2.92 26 20 0 117.0 96 42 38 6 15 118 1 0.949 7.4 0.5 1.2 9.1 7.87
2009 22 Charleston A 2.38 17 11 0 75.2 62 24 20 3 11 78 0 0.965 7.4 0.4 1.3 9.3 7.09
2009 22 Tampa A+ 3.92 9 9 0 41.1 34 18 18 3 4 40 1 0.919 7.4 0.7 0.9 8.7 10.00
2010 23 3 Teams AA-A+-AAA 3.20 28 27 1 160.1 148 61 57 11 28 153 5 1.098 8.3 0.6 1.6 8.6 5.46
2010 23 Tampa A+ 2.72 8 8 0 43.0 35 14 13 3 6 53 2 0.953 7.3 0.6 1.3 11.1 8.83
2010 23 Trenton AA 3.10 17 16 1 98.2 90 37 34 7 18 86 2 1.095 8.2 0.6 1.6 7.8 4.78
2010 23 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre AAA 4.82 3 3 0 18.2 23 10 10 1 4 14 1 1.446 11.1 0.5 1.9 6.8 3.50
5 Seasons 3.16 78 59 4 353.0 317 137 124 26 62 348 8 1.074 8.1 0.7 1.6 8.9 5.61
A (2 seasons) 2.82 22 16 0 95.2 87 34 30 5 19 89 0 1.108 8.2 0.5 1.8 8.4 4.68
Rk (2 seasons) 3.13 14 2 3 31.2 28 12 11 2 4 35 1 1.011 8.0 0.6 1.1 9.9 8.75
A+ (2 seasons) 3.31 17 17 0 84.1 69 32 31 6 10 93 3 0.937 7.4 0.6 1.1 9.9 9.30
AA (1 season) 3.10 17 16 1 98.2 90 37 34 7 18 86 2 1.095 8.2 0.6 1.6 7.8 4.78
A- (1 season) 3.00 5 5 0 24.0 20 12 8 5 7 31 1 1.125 7.5 1.9 2.6 11.6 4.43
AAA (1 season) 4.82 3 3 0 18.2 23 10 10 1 4 14 1 1.446 11.1 0.5 1.9 6.8 3.50
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/22/2010.

There are a lot of really good reasons to like Hector Noesi. Chief among them is his picture-perfect K/BB rates. Take a look at them, because they are a thing of beauty. A career 5.61 K/BB. 1.6 BB/9. 8.9 K/9. He controls the strike zone like no other Yankee prospect since the days of Phil Hughes. He has slowly built up his innings count in a way not to damage his arm, but to adequately prepare him for a MLB workload. His scouting report is positive across the board, if often unspectacular: a low 90s fastball with some cut to it, an average curveball, and an average-to-above-average changeup. He puts it all together with excellent command, control, and poise on the mound.

Noesi is never going to be an ace. He doesn’t have amazing stuff, and isn’t going to get any better at this point in his career. His K rates didn’t hold up so well in his (admittedly, first crack at) promotion to Double-A and Triple-A. Still, he remained effective and didn’t increase his walk rate. The best case scenario for Noesi is that he ends up being roughly equal to James Shields. But even if he doesn’t make it that far, he should be a useful pitcher in the back end of the Yankee rotation.

But the real question for any Yankee starting prospect is how? How will Hector Noesi break in to a win-now rotation? I think that he is pretty well positioned. Noesi is on the 40-man roster, and will start 2011 in Triple-A. He will likely compete with Ivan Nova and possibly David Phelps for the top spot on the team’s depth chart. From there, the Yankees will demand immediate average or better pitching from Noesi. I think he’s capable of quickly translating his skills to the majors. At the very least, he’ll throw strikes, eat innings, and keep the team in games. A guy like Ivan Nova is vulnerable to charges of taxing the bullpen (with short appearances) or the potential for blow-outs. I think that risk is diminished with Noesi – its part of what makes him so steady.

I ranked Noesi at #4 – ahead of high ceiling prospects like Andrew Brackman, Delin Betances, and ahead of the more experienced Ivan Nova – because I believe he’s a slam dunk to be a major league pitcher. His skills translate really well to the majors. He doesn’t have junk stuff, and he knows how to use it. He’s healthy. He’s in a good position to crack a rotation. I think that there are some concerns – out pitches, control – for Nova, and plenty of them for Brackman and Betances – to warrant this placement. The Yankees might offer him as trade bait, or they might give him a chance in New York.

Tagged with: , , , , ,

Looking at Melky Mesa

Posted by EJ Fagan at 5:00 pm 9 Responses »
Sep 212010

Melky Mesa, Center Fielder

Ranked 21st best Yankee prospect

Year Age Tm Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2006 19 Yankees Rk 40 159 145 20 30 7 2 3 22 3 3 11 45 .207 .266 .345 .611
2007 20 Yankees Rk 49 169 153 27 36 10 2 3 13 5 3 9 55 .235 .293 .386 .679
2008 21 Staten Island A- 46 128 122 19 27 5 2 7 23 4 1 4 38 .221 .252 .467 .719
2009 22 Charleston A 133 564 497 76 112 24 7 20 74 18 6 51 168 .225 .309 .423 .731
2010 23 Tampa A+ 121 507 446 81 116 21 9 19 74 31 9 44 129 .260 .338 .475 .813
5 Seasons 389 1527 1363 223 321 67 22 52 206 61 22 119 435 .236 .307 .431 .739
Rk (2 seasons) 89 328 298 47 66 17 4 6 35 8 6 20 100 .221 .280 .366 .646
A (1 season) 133 564 497 76 112 24 7 20 74 18 6 51 168 .225 .309 .423 .731
A- (1 season) 46 128 122 19 27 5 2 7 23 4 1 4 38 .221 .252 .467 .719
A+ (1 season) 121 507 446 81 116 21 9 19 74 31 9 44 129 .260 .338 .475 .813
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/21/2010.

Melky Mesa has been around the Yankee system for a long time, but has mostly remained an afterthought. Scouts can’t get over how great his athletic tools are – he’s fast, can throw a bullet from the outfield, and hits moonshots in batting practice. But he’s never really been able to put it all together. At least not until 2010. He strikes out, a lot. He plays a gold glove center field. And he’s getting old.

So why rate him #21? To me, its all about Melky’s ceiling. Melky is a super-athletic guy who took a long time to figure out how to play baseball. He finally brought his batting average up to respectable levels, continued to hit for power, and most importantly dramatically improved his K rate. He did it in a pitcher’s league.

I think that Melky Mesa could continue to improve. He’s shown no signs of plateauing his K rate improvements. His LD% depressed to 13% last year, which leaves room for improvement. His .320 BABIP wasn’t particularly inflated. He hits for power, takes a decent number of walks, and strikes out a lot. For a center fielder, those are relatively elite skills.

Think about Curtis Granderson’s performance this year. He’s hit a relatively pedestrian .249/.326/.467 while fielding an UZR/150 of 13.1. While disappointing and a bit overpaid, Granderson has been the 3rd most valuable center fielder in the AL. Mesa is capable of being a poor man’s Curtis Granderson – potentially with even better defense; better than Granderson. The real lesson is that great defenders at a premium position can have a lot of flaws on the hitting side and still be good major league players.

Now, I’m not 100% sold on Mesa. This year could easily have been a fluke. He’s a bit old. But to quote Mark Newman, “He doesn’t have any equals when it comes to [speed and power]” He’s got some really nice athletic tools. Even if he doesn’t continue to progress, he could become a 4th outfielder. Or he could flame out and strike out 200 times next season in Trenton. We’ll see. He’s a dice roll, but with nice rewards if we get a bit lucky.

Tagged with: , , , , ,

Fall 2010 Top 30 Yankee Prospects Ranking

Posted by EJ Fagan at 5:00 pm 23 Responses »
Sep 202010

Its been a really good season for the Yankees down in the minors. Below is my top-30 Yankee prospects. Though I should say this: there are a lot more guys in the system. I strongly considered expanding the list to 40 or 50 players, which the Yankees could easily justify. I decided to hold back for a number of reasons. As always, I tend to value certainty over uncertainty and performance over raw talent. The level listed after their names is where I project them for next season. The list:

1. C Jesus Montero, AAA/MLB – Really, he should be on the Yankees next year. His second half was as good as it gets. We’ll see.
2. LHP Manuel Banuelos, AA - He went from a polished young lefty to a flame-throwing potential ace.
3. C Austin Romine, AAA – More worried about the lack of defensive growth than his poor hitting season.
4. RHP Hector Noesi AAA – Better than people think. Also pretty close to a sure thing.
5. C Gary Sanchez A- – The next Montero, but with less body-type defensive questions.
6. RHP Graham Stoneburner AA – Blasted on to the scene this year, couldn’t have asked for better.
7. RHP Andrew Brackman AAA/AA – Went from having terrible control to having really good control in 2010. On track for a 2011 MLB appearance.
8. RHP Ivan Nova AAA/MLB – Could start on a lot of teams, maybe the Yankees. At the very least, he should be a good reliever.
9. RHP Dellin Betances AA – Still skeptical, but you can’t argue with his potential ceiling. Frank Piliere’s comments were pretty glowing.
10. OF Slade Heathcott A+ – Held his own. He’s a project, so we shouldn’t expect immediate gains. Next step: power.
11. RHP Adam Warren AA – His reported velocity has been a bit inflated, but his AA numbers were pretty awesome too.
12. 2b David Adams AAA – He’d be higher if not for the injury. Excellent trade bait, since we have Cano.
13. RHP Jose Ramirez A+ – Got leapfrogged by other players in 2010, but he’s still a great prospect.
14. SS Cito Culver A- – Great reviews on defense, held his own on hitting. Now the real work starts.
15. 3b Robert Segedin A+ – Fell to us due to injury concerns. Fell to #15 due to injury concerns. If he’s healthy, he’s top-5.
16. CF Mason Williams A- – Don’t know a lot about him, but he sounds like Brett Gardner with more tools. The bonus justifies this spot.
17. 3b/1b Brandon Laird AAA – Not too confident that he can be a starter in the AL East, but he should be a useful little piece as soon as mid-2011.
18. RHP Bryan Mitchell A- – Lots and lots of raw stuff. The Yankees love him.
19. RHP David Phelps AAA/MLB – Starter for the Pirates?
20. OF Angelo Gumbs A- – Highly rated, but raw. We’ll see.
21. OF Melky Mesa AA – Still skeptical, but if the breakout is real, then he could be a top-flight prospect. Rule V protection?
22. C JR Murphy A+ – Disappointing season.
23. RHP Brett Marshall A+ – Came back looking great. If he stays healthy, he’s a top starter prospect.
24. RHP D.J. Mitchell AAA – Just can’t get lefties out. Reliever?
25. 2b Corban Joseph AA – Underrated, but didn’t do so well in an extended AA audition.
26. RHP Lance Pendleton AAA/MLB – Was my pick for dark horse of the year. 154 2/3 innings, 2.33 K/BB, 3.61 ERA. Rule V protection?
27. LHP Evan Rutckyj A- – Super interesting super project. But he’s both really talented and a lefty.
28. RHP Gabe Encinas A- – Super interesting more polished project. Not left handed.
29. OF Colin Curtis AAA/MLB – MLB 4th/5th outfielder. Just like everyone said when he was drafted. Decent AAA season, deserves a look in spring training.
30. LHP Jeremy Bleich AA – We’ll talk after he recovers from surgery.

Honorable Mentions: George Kontos, Fu-Lin Kuo, Zoilo Almonte, Caleb Cotham, Eduardo Nunez, Eduardo Sosa, Jairo Heredia, Matt Richardson, Manny Barreda, Evan DeLuca, Ryan Pope, Pat Venditte, Anderson Feliz, Brad Suttle

There’s a lot to say about this group of players, and you can rest assured that I will say a lot of things. My current plan (if life allows) is to do a full array of prospect profiles, though I may leave a few of the less interesting players out. Who am I most intrigued by, relative to the buzz out there? Evan Rutckyj, Brett Marshall, Graham Stoneburner, and Rob Segedin really get my brain going.

What do you all think?

Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,

KLaw and Callis On The Yankee System

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Aug 272010

Keith Law and Jim Callis both chimed in on the Yankee farm system in chats this week, and the prognosis is encouraging. Let’s take a look at the chat answers from Callis first:

Nick (Connecticut): Is the Yankees farm system in the top 15?

Jim Callis: Yes. It takes a lot of time to break down all the systems and rank them against each other, but I’m confident enough to say the Yankees should rank in the top 10.

o (ct): Let’s get this straight, you are saying the Yanks system is in better shape than the sox?

Jim Callis: I did say that, yes.

A few weeks ago we parsed some comments from Callis to mean that the Yankees would be near the top 10, so it is good to see him confirm that assessment. The second comments is icing on the cake. Although the Red Sox strong 2010 draft may change that evaluation shortly, it seems fairly clear that the Yankees have more major league talent close to the big leagues. Keith Law was asked a similar question, and had the following to say:

Q: KLaw, I know the Red Sox just added some serious talent with this years draft but as of right now who has the better Farm System Yankees or Red Sox. Thanks in advance.
Klaw (1:21 PM): Yanks have more near-in talent. Red Sox have more depth and had a stronger 2010 draft.

It is amazing how a few months ago, the Yankees had little near in talent, with Romine and Montero their only real prospects above A ball. With Betances, Banuelos, and Brackman now at AA and Adam Warren, Hector Noesi, Brandon Laird, and David Phelps taking a step forward, the Yankees have a number of strong prospects at AA or higher. Speaking of “The Killer B’s,” Law was asked about them:

The Killer B’s. Brackman, Banuelos, Bentances. Who cracks the top 100?
Klaw (1:15 PM): All three.

Elsewhere, Law stated that 5 Yankees would make his top 100. With Montero a lock and the Killer B’s involved as well, the last slot will likely go to one of Gary Sanchez, Slade Heathcott, and Austin Romine. Law has cooled on Romine and Heathcott has struck out plenty at A this season, so I would guess that Sanchez makes his list. For the first time in a few years, the Yankees have 6 or 7 prospects that are legitimate candidates for top 100 prospect rankings. For a system that was ranked 22nd by Baseball America just last season, this has been quite a remarkable turnaround.

Tagged with: , , , , ,

2010 Pre-Draft Top 30 Prospect Rankings

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jun 072010

After the first two months of the minor league season, the Yankees finally have most of their pieces on the game board. Slade Heathcott and J.R. Murphy are playing in Charleston, and the system has generally enjoyed  a run of good health. We’re still waiting on a few big players to make their 2010 debuts – including Manuel Banuelos, Gary Sanchez, Kelvin De Leon, and Caleb Cotham. Even without those players, the early-season performances within the Yankee farm system, and some overdue adjustments on my part, have created significant movement from the 2009 Fall Top-30 ranking.

The story in 2006-2007 was that the Yankees had a great group of top-10 prospects but a much thinner group from 11-30. Names like Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Jesus Montero, and others brought a lot of excitement to the system. After they graduated, the 2008-2009 system, due to some poor first round draft picks, showcased a deep crew of potentially useful prospects, but less top end talent. This season, the system is a mix of the two different stories. The Yankees have two potential allstars in Jesus Montero and Austin Romine to lead their system, and a very solid group of players at 3-19 on the list. However, 20-30 (and beyond) is much weaker than in past years, and realistically can’t be expected to yield a lot of dividends.

I was more aggressive with my picks than in past years. I took far too long to recognize the achievements of guys like Austin Romine, and far too conservative when met with the potential of players like Graham Stoneburner. Below is my list, with some brief comments on each player.

  1. Jesus Montero – C, Triple-A – Not the least bit concerned with his slow start
  2. Austin Romine – C, Double-A – On the verge of being terribly underrated
  3. Zach McAllister – RHSP, Triple-A – Slightly unsexy, but McAllister will be a MLB starting pitcher
  4. Ivan Nova – RHSP, Triple-A – Slightly more sexy than McAllister, but also slightly less certain
  5. Slade Heathcott – OF, Low-A – Finally debuted
  6. Hector Noesi – RHSP, Double-A – The power of K/BB ratios
  7. Manuel Banuelos – LHSP, High-A – Still out, but a non-baseball related injury
  8. Graham Stoneburner – RHSP, High-A – Probably having the best season in the Yankee system so far
  9. David Adams – 2b, Double-A – Raking so far, still a middle infielder
  10. Jose Ramirez – RHSP, Low-A – Great stuff, tons of potential
  11. Gary Sanchez – C, Rookie – Still waiting for his debut
  12. J.R. Murphy – C, Low-A – Not worried by a slow start yet
  13. Brandon Laird – 1b/3b, Double-A – Booming power, but not a lot else
  14. Mark Melancon – RHRP, Triple-A – Starting to be concerned about his performance
  15. Juan Miranda – 1b/DH, Triple-A – Deserves a chance somewhere. Maybe Pittsburgh?
  16. David Phelps – RHSP, Double-A – Better than people think
  17. Adam Warren – RHSP, High-A – Maybe a tad bit overrated, but solid
  18. Corban Joseph – 2b, High-A – Solid potential MLB 2b
  19. Andrew Brackman – RHSP, High-A – Starting to put it all together, but with reduced velocity
  20. Kelvin De Leon – OF, Short-Season Low-A – Not so young anymore, still waiting on 2010 debut.
  21. Jeremy Bleich – LHSP, Double-A – Hopefully the injury explains his ineffectiveness at Double-A
  22. Wilkins De La Rosa – LHRP, Double-A – Seems to have stalled a bit
  23. Pat Venditte – SRHP, High-A – We can hope, right?
  24. Caleb Cotham – RHSP, Short-Season Low-A – Conspicuously absent thus far. Knee injury again?
  25. Jairo Heredia – RHSP, High-A – Having a terrible season, but has some margin for error still
  26. Brad Suttle – 3b, High-A – Really disappointing, but I’m willing to give him another half season
  27. Grant Duff – RHRP, Triple-A – All about the velocity.
  28. D.J. Mitchell – RHSP, Double-A – Getting knocked around at Double-A. Needs a bullpen conversion.
  29. Eduardo Nunez – SS, Triple-A – Fast start masked the old batting average-centric hitting skills, and poor defense.
  30. George Kontos, RHSP, Triple-A – Should be ready to pitch again soon, hopefully with his old stuff.

Honorable Mentions: Ryan Pope, Dellin Betances, Reegie Corona, Kyle Higashioka, Romulo Sanchez

You’ll see a general theme: the lower minor leagues are fairly barren because plenty of players have successfully graduated to Trenton and Scranton, and are performing well at those levels. Breakouts are abound. Stoneburner, Adams, and to a lesser extent Ramirez, Noesi and Laird have all launched themselves into true breakout seasons in so far in 2010.

I won’t be writing anything before the Yankees make their first round draft pick around 8:00 PM tonight. However, some observations: the Yankees have a lot of success with experienced college RHP and catchers, and not a lot of success in other places. While “best player available” analysis applies, the Yankees could really use an experienced and talented shortstop or outfield prospect to round out their system. They’ve tried a bit more in recent years to find hitting talent in the middle rounds without a lot of success, so we’ll see if they decide to edge toward hitting prospects with their first three picks. Players like Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, and others demonstrate a proven Yankee ability to find good college pitching with picks 4-8, so they should continue down that trend.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , ,

Goldstein: Montero #2 Prospect In Minors

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 7 Responses »
Apr 202010

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus released a new prospect list over at ESPN.com, and Jesus Montero checked in at 2nd:

Jesus Montero, C, New York Yankees (Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre)
Monday’s stats: 2-for-4, HR (1), 2 R, RBI
New York City got awfully excited about Ike Davis, a good-but-not-great prospect, coming to town on Monday. What will it be like later in the season when the Yankees call up one of the best prospects in the game? Surely, the surrounding factors won’t be the same. Mets fans are desperate for a light of hope in a miserable lineup and want Davis to be the answer, while Montero won’t arrive with the same expectations. At 20 years old, he’s one of the youngest everyday players at the upper levels, but he’s also the top hitting prospect in the minors. Montero is batting .300 and showed off power for the first time Monday afternoon against former big leaguer R.A. Dickey. Get the hype train revved up again.

With Jayson Heyward seemingly in Atlanta for good, Montero has a case for being the best hitter currently in the minor leagues. While some other prospects may have more value due to their abilities defensively compared to Montero’s meager backstopping skills, his bat is unquestionably elite. He homered for the first time this season in yesterday’s game, and has started to heat up a bit. He is now hitting .300/.364/.450 (courtesy of RAB‘s Montero watch), and has had a hit in all but one of his 12 games. Montero’s bat is close to ready, and the only thing holding him back is his defense. He should be a ton of fun to track over the next few months.

Tagged with: , , , ,

PP - Top 20 Yankee Prospects Averaged List

Posted by EJ Fagan at 11:00 am 7 Responses »
Feb 112010

Sean over at Pending Pinstripes did what I was thinking about doing but too lazy to pull the trigger on: he averaged the top-20 prospect lists of every major prospect pundit out there, including my list, and merged it in to one list. Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino were eliminated the the lists were adjusted.

Here is my list, and here is the averaged list, with ratings on a 1-240 scale:

1. Jesus Montero – 240
2. Austin Romine – 216
3. Zach McAllister – 207
4. Manny Banuelos – 205
5. Slade Heathcott – 187
6. JR Murphy – 125
7. Andrew Brackman – 100
8. Mark Melancon- 98
9. Jeremey Bleich- 91
10. Ivan Nova- 78
11. Jairo Heredia-77
12. Kelvin De Leon- 76
13. DJ Mitchell- 72
14. Gary Sanchez- 59
15. Wilkens De La Rosa- 48
16. Corban Joseph- 48
17. David Adams- 35
18. Adam Warren- 30
19. Dellin Betances- 28
20. Jose Ramirez – 22

There is a good deal of variation after the top-5. The biggest disagreement against my own list involve J.R. Murphy (I rated him 13th), D.J. Mitchell (I rated him 21st), and Francisco Cervelli (I rated him 11th, he doesn’t appear on this list at all). Besides that, the lists are in quite a bit of agreement.

I’d like to defend the three variances briefly.

J.R. Murphy – I definitely have loved what I’ve seen since the draft. The seven-figure signing bonus, the brief but strong hitting spree in short-season ball, and all the scouting reports have been really encouraging. However, I think that we may be jumping the gun a bit on our second-round pick. We’re not all that sure what position he may wind up in. A lot of people think he’s more of an outfielder than a catcher. He’s good, but if you asked me if I’d trade Mark Melancon for J.R. Murphy, I’d say “No” and not think twice about it.

D.J. Mitchell – Mitchell legitimately had a really great season. He surprised us all and definitely made himself a legit starting prospect. Still, he had some control problems against left-handed hitters that are troubling if he is to remain a starter, and is already entering his age-23 season. #13 is a bit high, I think.

Francisco Cervelli – Did people forget about him? Cervelli is still rookie-eligible, so he’s still a prospect in my books. He has been consistently underrated by prospect watchers for his whole career, and I’ve caught some heat for rating him in the 10-15 range several times. Cervelli is a legit defensive star with more stick than Jose Molina. That’s got a lot of value, and he’s about to bring it to the majors. Good for him.

While the Yankee bloggers on this list saved him, Zach McAllister has been chronically underrated by MLB-wide lists. I think that he’d going to show a lot of people what he can do in 2010, and be an important part of the Yankees depth chart. If he does work out, he’ll also be a big victory for the Yankee pitching development staff, who completely rebuilt his pitching style from the ground up.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,

Is Jeter The Greatest YANKEE?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 26 Responses »
Feb 022010


Yes, the word Yankee is all caps on purpose. You see, this morning two brothers posted a guest article over at Lohud suggesting that Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee of all time. They were soundly ripped in the comments, as most of the commenters rightly noted that Jeter really has no case for being a better player than Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, or Dimaggio, and may come in behind Berra as well. However, their post also discussed the off-field scrutiny and issues that Jeter faces, and within that discussion I believe there is the seed for an interesting debate. The question is, although Jeter is not the greatest baseball player to ever play for the Yankees, is he the greatest Yankee? Is he the perfect embodiment of what a Yankee should be?

He is driven by an incredible will to win, appreciates the history and tradition that the pinstripes represent, and is always respectful of those around him. He rarely does anything that reflects a me-first attitude, is a philanthropist, and does not have his personal life plastered across the news. However, players such as Mariano Rivera and Lou Gehrig could likely say the same thing. What do you think? Is Jeter the greatest Yankee?

Tagged with: , , , ,
Older Entries
© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha