Sean over at Pending Pinstripes did what I was thinking about doing but too lazy to pull the trigger on: he averaged the top-20 prospect lists of every major prospect pundit out there, including my list, and merged it in to one list. Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino were eliminated the the lists were adjusted.

Here is my list, and here is the averaged list, with ratings on a 1-240 scale:

1. Jesus Montero – 240
2. Austin Romine – 216
3. Zach McAllister – 207
4. Manny Banuelos – 205
5. Slade Heathcott – 187
6. JR Murphy – 125
7. Andrew Brackman – 100
8. Mark Melancon- 98
9. Jeremey Bleich- 91
10. Ivan Nova- 78
11. Jairo Heredia-77
12. Kelvin De Leon- 76
13. DJ Mitchell- 72
14. Gary Sanchez- 59
15. Wilkens De La Rosa- 48
16. Corban Joseph- 48
17. David Adams- 35
18. Adam Warren- 30
19. Dellin Betances- 28
20. Jose Ramirez – 22

There is a good deal of variation after the top-5. The biggest disagreement against my own list involve J.R. Murphy (I rated him 13th), D.J. Mitchell (I rated him 21st), and Francisco Cervelli (I rated him 11th, he doesn’t appear on this list at all). Besides that, the lists are in quite a bit of agreement.

I’d like to defend the three variances briefly.

J.R. Murphy – I definitely have loved what I’ve seen since the draft. The seven-figure signing bonus, the brief but strong hitting spree in short-season ball, and all the scouting reports have been really encouraging. However, I think that we may be jumping the gun a bit on our second-round pick. We’re not all that sure what position he may wind up in. A lot of people think he’s more of an outfielder than a catcher. He’s good, but if you asked me if I’d trade Mark Melancon for J.R. Murphy, I’d say “No” and not think twice about it.

D.J. Mitchell – Mitchell legitimately had a really great season. He surprised us all and definitely made himself a legit starting prospect. Still, he had some control problems against left-handed hitters that are troubling if he is to remain a starter, and is already entering his age-23 season. #13 is a bit high, I think.

Francisco Cervelli – Did people forget about him? Cervelli is still rookie-eligible, so he’s still a prospect in my books. He has been consistently underrated by prospect watchers for his whole career, and I’ve caught some heat for rating him in the 10-15 range several times. Cervelli is a legit defensive star with more stick than Jose Molina. That’s got a lot of value, and he’s about to bring it to the majors. Good for him.

While the Yankee bloggers on this list saved him, Zach McAllister has been chronically underrated by MLB-wide lists. I think that he’d going to show a lot of people what he can do in 2010, and be an important part of the Yankees depth chart. If he does work out, he’ll also be a big victory for the Yankee pitching development staff, who completely rebuilt his pitching style from the ground up.

Yes, the word Yankee is all caps on purpose. You see, this morning two brothers posted a guest article over at Lohud suggesting that Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee of all time. They were soundly ripped in the comments, as most of the commenters rightly noted that Jeter really has no case for being a better player than Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, or Dimaggio, and may come in behind Berra as well. However, their post also discussed the off-field scrutiny and issues that Jeter faces, and within that discussion I believe there is the seed for an interesting debate. The question is, although Jeter is not the greatest baseball player to ever play for the Yankees, is he the greatest Yankee? Is he the perfect embodiment of what a Yankee should be?

He is driven by an incredible will to win, appreciates the history and tradition that the pinstripes represent, and is always respectful of those around him. He rarely does anything that reflects a me-first attitude, is a philanthropist, and does not have his personal life plastered across the news. However, players such as Mariano Rivera and Lou Gehrig could likely say the same thing. What do you think? Is Jeter the greatest Yankee?

AOL Fanhouse writer Frankie Piliere recently ranked baseball’s farm systems, and the Yankees came in at 15:

15. New York Yankees | Players in Top 100: 4
The Yankees have plenty of depth. What they don’t have right now is a great deal of impact talent behind Jesus Montero. They have a lot of potential in the low levels, and it’s a solid system, but at the moment much of their high-upside players are early in their development.

It is hard to argue with anything Piliere says, as he succinctly sums up the state of the system. They would likely rate closer to 10th or so if they had not traded a number of their more highly regarded prospects this offseason, so 15 is a fairly solid placement for them at this team. I do think that the system has the potential to take a leap forward over the next few seasons, as much of the Yankees impact talent is at the lower levels. As players like Austin Romine, Jose Ramirez, and Manny Banluelos develop, we may see the Yankees slowly make their way up the ladder in these rankings.

What do you think about the Yankee farm system? Excited? Disappointed? Ambivalent? Chime in below.

He is, according to David Schoenfield of ESPN.com. He argues that if you consider all facets of the game and weigh longevity heavily, Jeter edges out players such as Cal Ripken, Arky Vaughan, and Barry Larkin, with only Honus Wagner finishing ahead of Jeter. A few months ago, I tackled this issue by looking simply at offense, and this is what I found:

Honus Wagner:
Career Numbers: .327/.391/.466 OPS+: 150
5 best (full) years by OPS+: 205, 187, 186, 176, 175

Joe Cronin:
Career Numbers: .301/.390/.468 OPS+: 119
5 best years by OPS+: 138, 136, 135, 129, 127

Arky Vaughan:
Career Numbers: .318/.406/.453 OPS+: 136
5 best years by OPS+: 190, 149, 148, 146, 140

Lou Boudreau:
Career Numbers: .295/.380/.415 OPS+: 120
5 best years by OPS+: 164, 145, 133, 131, 128

Cal Ripken:
Career Numbers: .276/.340/.447 OPS+: 112
5 best years by OPS+: 162, 145, 144, 143, 128

Derek Jeter:
Career Numbers: .317/.387/.459 OPS+: 121
5 best years by OPS+: 153, 132, 128, 127, 126

One note: Looking at 5 best seasons by OPS+ does not exactly do Jeter justice, as much of his value is caught up in his consistency. His 6-10 best years are likely better than those years for most of the players on this list. That being said, I think we can reach a few conclusions.

1) Honus Wagner is the best hitting SS of all time, and Arky Vaughan is second.

2) Cal Ripken stuck around way too long, and his decline was substantial enough to knock him out of the top 5 in terms of offensive value.

3) Jeter is right there in the next group with Boudreau and Cronin, rounding out the top 5, and an argument can be made for Jeter as #3 if you place career value over peak.

Conclusion: Among players who remained at SS for the bulk of their careers, Derek Jeter is no higher than 3rd but is likely no lower than 5th (unless I missed somebody) in terms of hitting. Next time somebody tells you he would be a borderline star if he played in KC, tell him to do some research.

I placed Jeter third offensively, but this did not take longevity into account, and focused more upon peak than career value. Schoenfield argues convincingly that Jeter should be ahead of Vaughan, due to Vaughan only having 11 full seasons at SS, and Jeter likely to end up with 18 or so. However, when defense enters the equation, I think Jeter loses some value, such that he is likely to be neck and neck with Ripken by the end of his career. For now, I would have Jeter 4th, behind Wagner, Ripken, and Vaughan, with the chance to move up to 2nd.

Where would you place Jeter?

Now that the CHONE projections have been released and the Yankees and Red Sox have, for the most part, finalized their rosters, people have begun to analyze which club projects to be better in 2010. Most fo the studies I have seen come to the same conclusion.

Yankeeist broke it down by position, and concluded with this:

That said, in aggregate, each method draws the same conclusion: The Yankees core looks stronger than the Red Sox core. Baseball Prospectus puts the final tally at 59.5 to 49.8, while Fangraphs comes to 61.4 to 55.1. The actual 8 win difference between the two 2009 teams is right between these two estimates, adding credibility to the final tallies.

RLYW, using their own CAIRO system, came to a similar conclusion with a narrower margin:

I haven’t really finalized their pitching depth chart so I’m not going to post it yet, but with the one I have worked up they look like a .598 Pythagenpat team right now, which is .025 points worse than the Yankees were when I ran their numbers. That’s the difference between a 97 win team and 101 win team in a neutral league, though we probably want to knock off a couple of wins frome each team to account for being in the AL East.

Rob Neyer sums up the debate rather well:

I think the Yankees are better, but the difference is within the margin of error (or very close), so luck will play a big part in who wins the East.

Who do you believe is the better club? I’ll get things started by doing an brief ranking of the key players on each club, considering both offense and defense (I will have a significantly more in depth comparison once the rosters are actually finalized, at some point in March):

C: Posada v. Martinez: Red Sox- Very similar players, but Martinez was a little better in ‘09 and is younger.
1B: Teixeira v. Youkilis: Yankees- Again, very similar, but Tex was slightly better in ‘09 and has a better track record.
2B: Cano v. Pedroia: Push- if you trust UZR, you take Pedey. If not, you probably take Cano.
SS: Jeter v. Scutaro: Yankees- Scutaro is a nice player, but he is not Jeter and could see regression.
3B: Rodriguez v. Beltre: Yankees- Again, nice player, but not in A-Rod’s league.
CF: Granderson v. Cameron: Push- If you see Grandy bouncing back, you take him. If not, Cameron’s the better bet.
RF: Swisher v. Drew: Red Sox- Drew is likely to be better defensively and about as good with the bat.
LF: Gardner v. Ellsbury: Red Sox- Gardner actually out-WAR’ed him last year, but I am not a big believer in Brett.
DH: Johnson v. Ortiz: Push- Ortiz projects poorly, while Johnson projects to do well in 110 games. Hard to read.

SP1: Sabathia v. Lester: Yankees
SP2: Burnett v. Beckett: Red Sox
SP3: Vazquez v. Lackey: Red Sox
SP4: Pettitte v. Matsuzaka: Yankees
SP5: Joba/Hughes v. Buchholz: Push
CL: Rivera v. Papelbon: Yankees

You can order the starters however you like, but I think that any permutation would result in the same thing: The Yankees winning the matchups at 1 and 4, and losing the middle 2. There are those (hi, MJ) who will disagree with a push at #5, but I am still pretty high on Chamberlain and expect him to have a better year than Clay (please remind me of this at the end of the season, so I can right a column either gloating or conceding). With Papelbon’s peripherals trending in the wrong direction and Mariano showing no signs of aging, I would take Mo for 2010.

Putting it all together, I think the pitching staffs are fairly equal, while the Yankees offense is a bit better largely due to their “margin of victory” on the left side of the infield. I would say that there is about a 2-3 win gap between the clubs at the moment, with the final composition of the bullpens and benches likely to have an impact upon that number.

Thoughts?

A few days ago, MLB Daily Dish at SBNation posed an interesting question:

Below is a list of the past ten World Series winners.

2000: Yankees

2001: Diamondbacks

2002: Angels

2003: Marlins

2004: Red Sox

2005: White Sox

2006: Cardinals

2007: Red Sox

2008: Phillies

2009: Yankees

But which of these squads is the best of them all?

They concluded that the 2004 Red Sox were the best champ of the decade, followed by the ‘07 Red Sox and ‘08 Phillies. Meanwhile, the poll on the site had the ‘09 Yankees as the runaway winner, garnering 50% of the vote. I thought it would be interesting to look at the numbers, using OPS+ as a proxy for measuring offense and ERA+ for determining run prevention.

OPS+ (Overall League Rank)
‘09 Yankees 122 (1st)
‘04 Red Sox 110 (3rd)
‘07 Red Sox 107 (3rd)
‘02 Angels 105 (8th)
‘00 Yankees 103 (8th)
‘08 Phillies 98 (15th)
‘03 Marlins 97 (11th)
‘06 Cardinals 97 (16th)
‘05 White Sox 95 (17th)
‘01 D-Backs 94 (19th)

ERA+ (Overall League Rank)
‘05 White Sox 124 (1st)
‘07 Red Sox 123 (1st)
‘02 Angels 120 (3rd)
‘01 D-Backs 120 (3rd)
‘04 Red Sox 116 (2nd)
‘08 Phillies 113 (6th)
‘03 Marlins 104 (12th)
‘00 Yankees 101 (15th)
‘09 Yankees 100 (18th)
‘06 Cardinals 98 (19th)

Wins (Overall League Rank)
‘09 Yankees 103 (1st)
‘05 White Sox 99 (2nd)
‘02 Angels 99 (4th)
‘04 Red Sox 98 (3rd)
‘07 Red Sox 96 (1st)
‘08 Phillies 92 (5th)
‘01 D-Backs 92 (6th)
‘03 Marlins 91 (7th)
‘00 Yankees 87 (9th)
‘06 Cardinals 83 (13th)

Let us begin with a few general observations. The ‘06 Cards, and to a lesser extent, the ‘03 Marlins and ‘00 Yankees, had no business winning a World Series. They were mediocre teams that got hot at the right moment or ended up in the right division. Additionally, it is important to note that being a simply good regular season club does not preclude postseason greatness. The 2009 Yankees are a prime example, in that they were able to hide their pitching weakness by using just their top 3 starters, and went from a solid pitching club in the regular season to a strong pitching team in the playoffs. Finally, it does seem that the maxim about pitching winning championships is true, as only the aforementioned ‘06 Cards won with a below average pitching team, while 5 clubs won with a subpar offense.

Based on the above numbers, this is how I would (unscientifically) rate the clubs:

1. ‘07 Red Sox
2. ‘02 Angels
T3. ‘09 Yankees
T3. ‘04 Red Sox
5. ‘05 White Sox
6. ‘08 Phillies
7. ‘01 D-Backs
8. ‘00 Yankees
9. ‘03 Marlins
10. ‘06 Cardinals

Agree? Disagree? Chime in below!

A lot of prospect lists are tossed out over the course of the off season. By far the most influential one – the one quoted almost exclusively quoted in newspapers – is Baseball America’s Top-10 list. The list is available freely on line for everyone to read, but the scouting reports are subscriber only. The list:

1. Jesus Montero
2. Austin Romine
3. Arodys Vizcaino
4. Slade Heathcott
5. Zach McAllister
6. Manuel Banuelos
7. Gary Sanchez
8. J.R. Murphy
9. Jeremy Bleich
10. Andrew Brackman

This list heavily, disproportionately, favors low-level, high-ceiling talent over surer things. This is in contrast to last year’s BA list, which included low-ceiling sure bets Phil Coke, Alfredro Aceves, and the medium-ceiling Mark Melancon. This year’s list has an average age of just 20, almost 19 without Brackman.

While in some ways this is nitpicking, the ranking of McAllister so low is a part of the persistent pattern of BA underrating guys who don’t throw 95. Ask yourself this question: If you had Zach McAllister, would you trade him for Arodys Vizcaino? There’s no way in hell I would. McAllister is ready to contribute in the major leagues, and has a pretty good chance of being, well, pretty good. He’s no ace, but there’s a ton of value in a guy who can pitch 200 above-average innings and stay healthy. McAllister is that guy. Vizcaino has a lot of time to get injured or develop some kind of problem.

That said, the list is impressive, and an improvement over last season. There is some serious ceiling potential in the young guys. Someone on the bottom two thirds of the list is going to evolve into the next Jesus Montero, and maybe even the next Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, or Mariano Rivera.

I don’t currently have a subscription for economic reasons, but Mike at River Ave Blues mentioned Baseball America’s scouting report of Montero. They said that he has improved to only below-average defensively (something that Mike Ashmore has also said), and may grade out to an 80 hit, 80 power guy. That praise is as strong as you are ever going to see for Montero. The consensus seems to be that, at least for now, Montero will enter the Major Leagues as a catcher.

Everyone does their position-by-position breakdown. Look around the internet and you can find dozens. I never understood why people choose to break a lineup down by defensive position. Defense is important, but putting player’s abilities in context is more important. Alex Rodriguez isn’t really supposed to compare to Chone Figgins, he compares more to the #4 hitter in the lineup.

So, how do the team’s hitters match up?

Leadoff – Derek Jeter vs. Chone Figgins

Both players can steal bases, and both players get on base exceptionally well. Derek Jeter hit .334/.406/.465 in 2009, while Figgins hit .298/.395/.393. Jeter showed more power than his rival, and therefore has a clear edge in effectiveness. While  Figgins is faster, the difference between him and Jeter is negligible.

Edge: Yankees (1-0-0)

Two-Hole: Johnny Damon vs. Bobby Abreu

Both outfielders are watching their careers wind down. Bobby Abreu has spent his the twilight of his career hitting for much less power than he used to, but still showing his ability to draw walks. Johnny Damon has actually seen a dramatic increase in power, mostly at the expense of defense. Abreu hit .293/.390/.435 this season, while Damon hit .282/.365/.489.

I think that Bobby Abreu is terribly overrated by the media. He is a very good baseball player, but his drastic decline in power is starting to hurt his value. Damon is provides both power and an ability to avoid outs, but makes a few more outs. To me, its a tie.

Edge: Tie (1-0-1)

Three Spot: Mark Teixeira vs. Torri Hunter

Torri Hunter is a fine baseball player. He had a career year, hitting .299/.366/.508, and is making the Yankees regret not signing him. Regardless, this one is easy:

Edge: Yankees (2-0-1)

Cleanup: Vlad Guerrero vs. Alex Rodriguez

This would have been an epic match up a few years ago. Both are going to the hall of fame. One is in the twilight of his career. Fortunately for us, that one is not Alex Rodriguez. Arod is my pick for ALCS MVP.

Edge: Yankees (3-0-1)

Fifth: Hideki Matsui vs. Kendry Morales

Morales finally had the breakout year that we were all waiting for. He was supposed to be a major source of power out of Cuba, but that took some time to adjust. Matsui had an excellent season, hitting .294/.367/.509, but Morales best him with home runs, hitting .306/.355/.569. Really, Morales should be in Guerrero’s spot. Alex Rodriguez would have an edge over Morales, and Matsui over Guerrero.

Edge: Angels (3-1-1)

Sixth: Jorge Posada vs. Juan Rivera

Juan Rivera has shown a nice rebound since his terrible injury. The former Yankee hit .287/.333/.478. But Posada easily bested him, hitting .285/.363/522. This one isn’t even close.

Edge: Yankees (4-1-1)

Seven: Robinson Cano vs. Maicer Izturis / Howie Kendrick

Izturis, a utility man who can play all over the diamond, had a career year. Howie Kendrick has a lot of talent. Neither come close to doing what Robinson Cano did this year. I think that Yankee fans underrate how good their 2nd baseman is. And how good their #7 hitter is for someone in that spot. Another huge win for the Yankees.

Edge: Yankees (5-1-1)

Eighth: Mike Napoli vs. Nick Swisher

Swisher and Napoli are really very similar hitters. They both swing for the fences, but strike out often. Fortunately for the Yankees, Swisher not only hit more out of the park, but he took twice as many walks as Napoli. Again, the Yankees have an underrated asset hitting way back at 8th in their lineup, and stashed away in right field. He’s a damned good baseball player, and is a big part of the Yankee depth.

Edge: Yankees (6-1-1)

Second Leadoff: Melky Cabrera vs. Erick Aybar

I fully expected six months ago for Melky to be out of the Yankee organization and Brett Gardner to be in this spot. While Gardner had a good rookie season, Cabrera really came in to his own in 2009. Gone are the long slumps and booming hot streaks. He became a major league average hitter in almost every way, which is great for a center fielder and 9th hole batter

That said, the Angels win this one with Aybar. The shortstop hit .314/.353/.423. He won’t be a 9th hitter for long.

Edge: Angels

Final score: Yankees have the big edge (6-2-1)

The Angels have a very good lineup that scored a lot of runs in 2009. That said, the Yankees have a historically deep lineup of power hitters that rivals some of the best of all time. So deep that they best the 2nd best in the league 6 of 9 times. Amazing.

Has anyone else gone crazy waiting for this series to begin? One more day…

This week, we saw two historic achievements by Derek Jeter and Ichiro Suzuki. They got me thinking: which active (and recently retired) players belong in the Hall of Fame? Our era has produced a lot of superstars – more than I realized before I tried to put together a list – and they could start crowding the Hall of Fame pretty quickly. My list:

The No-Doubters

• Albert Pujols
• Greg Maddux
• Derek Jeter
• Mariano Rivera
• Ivan Rodriguez
• Pedro Martinez
• Randy Johnson
• Ichiro Suzuki
• Craig Biggio
• Tom Glavine
• Trevor Hoffman
• Frank Thomas
• Ken Griffey Jr.
• Mike Piazza

We’re looking at an impressive list. Pedro Martinez sports the best ERA+ in MLB history. Ivan Rodriguez has a case for being best catcher of all time. Ichiro Suzuki may hit 3,000 hits despite his odd career path. Greg Maddux is somehow underrated, despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball history. Albert Pujols may be the closest thing that this generation has to a Lou Gehrig. Mariano Rivera has somehow compiled a ridiculous 202 ERA+ in his career, 50 points higher than anyone else who has pitched over 1,000 innings.

The Borderlines

• Jorge Posada
• Jeff Bagwell
• Jim Thome
• John Smoltz
• Vlad Guerrero
• Todd Helton
• Lance Berkman
• Chipper Jones
• Omar Vizquel

Most of these guys will not make the Hall, but some will. Smoltz has an interesting relief/starting career and is well-liked by the press. Guerrero was more dominant than people realize. Guys like Helton, Berkman, and Thome will be a real test of Hall voters: can they distinguish between guys who were very valuable offensive players even if they didn’t hit 500+ home runs? We’ll see. I don’t give Hall voters much credit.

The Steroid Crew

• Barry Bonds
• Roger Clemens
• Rafael Palmeiro
• Alex Rodriguez
• Manny Ramirez
• Gary Sheffield
• Sammy Sosa

What happens to these guys? Every one has hall-worthy numbers. There is a good case that Barry Bonds was a better player, strictly by the numbers, than anyone since Babe Ruth. Clemens could have gone down as the best pitcher ever. Alex Rodriguez could hit 700 home runs. Hall of Fame voters will likely spite a few and let the others in. Steroids or not, Bonds, Arod, and Clemens are inner-circle cooperstowners, and Manny and Sosa absolutely should get in too.

This seems like a huge list to me. When I look at the past few years of Hall of Fame ballots, I see few players that I truly believe deserve entry. Guys like Goose Gossage, Jim Rice, and Bruce Sutter would be near the bottom of the “Borderline” list if I had included them. Are we seeing more Hall of Famers for some particular reason today? Or are we (or I) inflating the value of present-day players?

John Sickels is reviewing his preseason top 20 prospects lists, and got to the Yankees this morning. The results, as might have been expected, were not pretty:

The Yankees started the season with one excellent prospect in Montero, a solid guy in Jackson, and a bunch of B-/C+ types who may or may not develop into something. Injury attrition has torn through the pitchers. Brackman has yet to live up to New York propaganda hype, and there is a distinct lack of impact talent beyond Montero. On the other hand, Robertson has been strong, I haven’t given up on Coke, and Aceves is certainly capable of contributing in a major league bullpen going forward. Melancon, McAllister, and Teixeira are all potential contributors for 2010 or trade fodder.

Injuries or ineffectiveness from Brackman, Betances, Garcia, and Kontos have weakened the Yankees pitching depth, and make this list look fairly weak. A reasonable argument can be made that most of the Yankees current top prospects are position players, a stark change from just a year ago. One other thing to note is that many players not on Sickels’ original list have taken a step forward this season. Here are his honorable mentions from the preseason list:

David Adams, 2B; Manuel Banuelos, LHP; Jeremy Bleich, LHP: Frank Cervelli, C; Kelvin De Leon, OF; Mike Dunn, LHP; Brett Gardner, OF; Alan Horne, RHP: Corban Joseph, 2B; Brett Marshall, RHP; D.J. Mitchell, RHP; David Phelps, RHP; Ryan Pope, RHP; Matt Richardson, RHP; Damon Sublett, 2B; Pat Venditte, RHP-LHP; Kevin Whelan, RHP.

There are a number of players on that list who have greatly improved their stock in 2009, with each of the first 7 names on that list having solid years and moving into most top 20s. This is the nature of prospects, that many will fall by the wayside and depth is needed to survive the attrition. It seems that the Yankees are well equipped to deal with the vagaries of player development.