With yesterday’s acquisition of Randy Winn, the Yankees’ bench seems to be set. Let’s examine the implications this could have for the 2010 team.

First off, the fact that Johnny Damon is not returning should give current left fielder Brett Gardner a big confidence boost. By not re-signing Damon, instead opting for a cheaper player who isn’t likely to take a starting job from the “incumbent” Gardner, the Yankees are telling the young outfielder that they believe he can hold the position competently. I don’t have much faith in Gardner getting much better than he was in 2009, but there is still room to grow. With plus defense, a decent OBP (.340-.350?), and his speed, Gardner could be a net positive in left field for the Yankees.

Next we come to the “order of operations,” if you will (excuse me, I’m interning at a middle school and doing a little bit of work in math classes) for the outfield. Barring anything unforeseen between now and the beginning of the season, the regular OF alignment will be Gardner–Granderson–Swisher. Defensively, this outfield is pretty solid. Offensively, two-thirds of it is above average. The first man off the bench will obviously be Winn. As I discussed last night, he’s a good option at each of the outfield positions and can at least handle himself at the plate. Signing another bench outfielder will likely have a double-edged-sword type of effect on Rule V pick Jamie Hoffmann.

On the one hand, it will allow Hoffmann to develop at a slower pace. He will no longer be the first option off the bench, nor will he be an injury away from being a full time starter. On the other hand, though, it does mean fewer at bats for Hoffmann and the only way to grow as a major leaguer is with consistent trips the plate.

Frankie Cervelli will assume the back-up catcher’s duties and I don’t think we should expect anything from him that we didn’t expect frohttp://www.theyankeeu.com/wp-admin/post-new.phpm Jose Molina. Cervelli will likely bring a relatively weak bat to the plate, but should play above average defense behind the plate. I wonder, though, if he’ll be paired with any one pitcher. Perhaps Joe Girardi will pair Cervelli with A.J. Burnett as he did with the latter and Jose Molina in 2009. Another route that could be taken is pairing Joba Chamberlain with Cervelli. It seems as though Posada and Chamberlain never really got themselves on the same page, so maybe Joba would work better with Cervelli.

The last spot is the utility infielder’s spot which will most likely be either Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo. If it’s Pena, I’ll expect the same thing as Cervelli: good defense with an almost anemic bat. If it’s Russo, I’d expect a little more of the bat with a little less defense.

So, as of now, I’m willing to bet that the Yankee bench will be made up of outfielders Randy Winn and Jamie Hoffmann, with Francisco Cervelli doing the back up catching, and one of Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo playing all over the infield; let’s also not forget that Nick Johnson and/or Nick Swisher could play first base in a pinch. This bench may not have a ton of power, but it’s versatile and the parts are more or less replaceable if they do not perform.

Heading into 2009, we were treated to multiple “battles” at Spring Training. The above pictured Ramiro Pena won a mini-battle, a skirmish if you will, to become the bench infielder/utility man when the Yankees broke camp. The two major battles were in the outfield. In center field, Brett Gardner won the starting center field job over Melky Cabrera, though he eventually lost that job after underperforming early in the season.

In right field, Nick Swisher lost out to Xavier Nady, but when Nady went down with an injury, Swisher filled in more than admirably and had a fantastic year, belting 29 home runs and posting a career high 129 OPS+.

This season, there are a few battles we should keep an eye on. Two of them, though one of them is pretty small, are on the pitching side and one of them is on the bench, and it involves Ramiro Pena once again.

Let’s start off by looking at the small-potatoes battle in the bullpen. Disclaimer: I’m assuming the loser of the fifth starter battle is placed in SWB as the sixth starter, therefore the set-up spot is open. While it is likely that they will be rather “interchangeable”–that is, either option would be fine–it’s still possible that one of Damaso Marte or David Robertson will be the primary set-up man, regardless of where the batter stands. If either pitcher can show the ability to balance his splits, he could be used more frequently. However, I’d still expect Marte to face lefties the vast majority of the time and that this “battle” will not yield much of consequence. Both are fine set-up options and I’d be more than comfortable with either one of them pitching in front of Mariano Rivera.

The Yankees’ rotation spots one through four are set: Sabathia, Burnett, Vazquez, Pettitte. The fifth spot is still, apparently, up for grabs. The two contenders are youngsters Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes. Both of them have had incredible success in the bullpen, but developing them as starters is the Yankees’ plan (as it should be) so one of them will definitely have to start full time this year.

As starters, both have been nothing if not inconsistent. Regardless, they’ve both shown incredible flashes of brilliance in the rotation. If I had to predict how this battle would go right now, I’d say that it’s almost a sure thing that Joba Chamberlain will get the nod as the fifth starter. While Hughes got over 100 innings last year, Chamberlain made 30 starts and pitched a full season innings wise. Frankly stated, he’s much more prepared to start in the Majors than Hughes is. I like them both, a lot, but the truth is that unless there’s an injury, only one of them can start full time for all of 2010. The two of them still need to put some work in before they reach their potential as top-of-the-rotation-starters, but, as I said only one of them can put that work in full time. The real question is whether or not the Yankees will use the loser of the battle as the sixth starter at AAA or as a set-up option in the bullpen. For my thoughts on that, see this post.

The last battle is essentially a skirmish as well. The winner of this “fight” is not likely to have a major impact on the Yankees and if he is counted on to do so, the 2010 season is probably in a great, great deal of trouble. The only other open spot I can see–as of right now–is the utility infielder position. Last year, Ramiro Pena won the job over Angel Berroa and he performed pretty well. He OPS’d .699 and played solid defense at short and third. All in all, he did a good job as the utility guy. Why, then, would his spot be in jeopardy? Mostly because his .699 OPS is the outlier in his career. His minor league OPS is .635 and while his .287 BA in ‘09 at the ML level was nice, it was largely due to a .340 BABIP. Despite his great defense, Pena’s lack of a bat could be his downfall in 2010. His in-organization combination will likely be Kevin Russo, who offers similar position flexibility, but a slightly better bat. While Russo hasn’t flashed much power in the minors, .403 SLG, his .360 OBP is nice and shows good maturity at the plate. At the plate, it’s not likely that Russo represents much of an upgrade over Pena, and Pena is the better fielder; he also has experience on his side, and I’d expect Pena to win. Despite that, I’m sure we’ll see Kevin Russo at some point in 2010.

Due to Melky Cabrera’s hamstring injury, Brett Gardner will be in center for the Yankees in Game 5. Melky is not expected to return for the rest of the series, therefore, the Yankees will replace his roster spot with Ramiro Pena (the MLB has approved of the change).

The Yanks have recently kicked around the idea of carrying 10 pitchers for the ALDS. Just to see what that would look like, I’ll make up a 25 man postseason roster. 10 pitchers, 15 position players.

Pitchers:
CC Sabathia
AJ Burnett
Andy Pettitte
Mariano Rivera
Phil Hughes
Alfredo Aceves
Damaso Marte
Phil Coke
David Robertson
Joba Chamberlain/Chad Gaudin/Alby/Bruney

Position Players:
Jorge Posada
Jose Molina
Mark Tiexiera
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Johnny Damon
Nick Swisher
Gritt Gardner
Melky Cabrera
Hideki Matsui
Eric Hinske

Jerry Hairston
Ramiro Pena
Freddy Guzman

I don’t know about you, but I’d drop Freddy Guzman and take an extra pitcher, myself. Rather have Gaudin+Joba than Guzman. Its not like Ramiro Pena or Jerry Hairston  can’t pinch run for you. I understand that Guzman is crazy fast, 80 on a scouts 20-80 scale. But is the marginal speed difference between him and Pena or Hairston worth carrying one less pitcher? I don’t think so.

I think Joba likely gets taken over Chad Gaudin, since we know Joba has the ability to utterly dominate out of the bullpen. But Gaudin could eat up 3 innings somewhere in a game where the starter gets knocked out early and save Ace/D-Rob from having to do so, leaving them strong to perform in a win rather than waste them doing mop-up work in a game which will likely end in a loss. We need a long man, and Gaudin would be perfect. He could hold down the fort and even give you a chance to win that game. I just don’t want Ace or D-Rob wasting their arms (and being unavailable/less effective the next game) what in all likelihood will be a losing cause.

Another thing to consider is that there is some overlap as to where these guys play. Pena plays 2B/SS/3B, Guzman plays LF/CF/RF and Hairston plays just about everywhere. If they drop Pena and go Hairston as the backup infielder, Guzman as the 5th outfielder and an 11th pitcher, I’m on board.

But this decision may wind up being made for them. LoHud reported yesterday that Hairston’s wrist injury could be serious, and if that’s the case that would finish him for the season.

From Joel Sherman:

The Yankees are likely to have the home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, and with that comes the right to pick a first-round series in which they have multiple off-days that allow them to go with three starters. With the extra off-days they need no more than a seven-man bullpen. Thus, they can have 15 position players or six extra men on the bench.

The locks are Gardner, Jerry Hairston and Jose Molina. That leaves three open slots to pick among Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Eric Hinske, Shelly Duncan and Guzman. Do the Yanks feel they need a lefty power bat (Hinske), a righty power bat (Duncan), a second extra infielder who can run a bit (Pena), a third catcher (Cervelli) that would allow them to more liberally run for Jorge Posada and Jose Molina or a pure speed guy (Guzman).

I think the Yankees will take 11 pitchers, with CC, AJ, Pettitte, Joba, Mariano, Hughes, Coke, Marte, Robertson, Bruney, and Aceves making the cut. Considering that Shelley Duncan and Frankie Cervelli have been given minimal playing time recently, I would guess that neither is a legitimate option for a roster spot. That leaves two spots for Hinske, Pena, and Guzman, with Hinske almost certain to make the team as the lone power threat off the bench. Essentially, we are left with a choice between a second utility player (Pena) and a second base stealing threat (Guzman). Joe over at RAB addressed this issue yesterday:

A speed threat on the bench is a luxury in October, and one the Yankees can certainly afford. But can they spare two spots to speedsters? It seems as though Melky Cabrera is the starting center fielder, with Gardner coming in every once in a while, rather than any kind of set platoon. He’s one guy who can pinch run in close and late situations. Do the Yankees need another?
Right now, the odds are against Guzman making the roster, but things can change between now and October 7. If Melky starts to falter and Gardner starts more in center, perhaps the Yankees will think it worthy to have a speeders for whom they can pick spots. If Gardner’s starting, the Yanks obviously can’t use him to pinch run for Posada or Matsui in a difficult spot. The presence of Guzman would afford them that luxury. I guess it will come down to how the team plays down the stretch, and how the Yankees think they can best use their extra position player.

I have to disagree with Joe, in that I do not believe that this has anything to do with Gardner. Whoever is the 25th man will be the last person off the bench, used after Gardner. The question is, would you prefer that last guy be a versatile player or a base stealer? I would prefer Guzman, as I see no instance where Pena’s defense will come into play. His versatility is essentially meaningless, because it is unlikely that he would be needed to replace Cano, Jeter, or Rodriguez. Rather, he too would be used as a pinch-runner for Posada, Matsui, Swisher, or Damon. Considering that it is significantly more likely that the player being replaced is an outfielder rather than an infielder, Guzman would likely be the right choice regardless of his advantage in terms of speed. The fact that he is significantly faster than Pena is just icing on the cake.

With the Yankees having all but clinched the AL East, the results of the individual games become almost secondary to certain events and performances that take on a higher significance as the season closes and the playoffs approach. Here are a few things that might be interesting for a Yankees fan to watch for over the last 22 games:

1) Ramiro Pena’s playing time: The amount of time that Pena gets will clue us in to the roster construction that the Yankees plan to have for the postseason. Assuming Brian Bruney continues pitching adequately and David Robertson returns, there are 13 position players and 11 pitchers who are locks to make the playoff roster. The final spot will be filled either by Pena or by another reliever, likely Chad Gaudin. Personally, I would go with Gaudin, who is tough on righties, but I could see why the Yankees may want an additional pinch runner off the bench. Thus far, Hairston and Hinske have gotten the bulk of the playing time available to bench players in recent days, suggesting that Joe is trying to get them plenty of action prior to the playoffs. Pena, on the other hand, has barely seen the field, which suggests that he may be the odd man out come October.

2) Bullpen Usage: It seems that Brian Bruney is beginning to regain the manager’s trust, which would be a nice development for an already strong bullpen. With Damaso Marte pitching well and Phil Coke struggling, their roles have likely flipped for the time being, and David Robertson’s injury seems to add a bit more uncertainty into this equation. How these pitchers are throwing heading into the playoffs will likely determine how they are used in October.

3) Joba Chamberlain and AJ Burnett: The Yankees will need 4 starters at some point in the playoffs (more on that later today), and these two are the wuestion marks in the rotation. Burnett looked a lot better his last time out, and if he is truly beginning to heat up, we could be in for an amazing postseason. Joba, on the other hand, continues to struggle, and has even spurred suggestions that Chad Gaudin get his rotation spot in the playoffs. How he pitches over his final starts may determine whether he remains in that role for the ALDS or if he gets relegated to bullpen duty.

4) The Award Candidates: Joe Mauer is likely the MVP, but the Yankees do have two legitimate candidates. With voters often insisting on the MVP coming from a winner, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter have a real shot. A great September from either player can propel him to the top of the race. The Cy Young Award belongs to Zack Greinke, but win totals blind many of the voters, giving CC Sabathia a puncher’s chance. A September similar to his August might allow him to steal the award from Greinke.

From Chad Jennings, we learn that the Yankees have called up Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Mark Melancon, Mike Dunn and Edwar Ramirez. No surprises there. Expect to see Shelley Duncan, Anthony Claggett, Juan Miranda and Brett Gardner get the call later, as well (Austin Jackson remains a possibility, too).

(props to RAB)

Peter Abraham has the news, reporting that Pena is up for Claggett. This gives the Yankees incredible flexibility on the bench, with Jerry Hairston Jr. and Pena both being able to play multiple positions adequately. When Brett Gardner returns, I would expect that Pena be sent back down.

In regard to the pitching staff, Chad Gaudin will join the club on Sunday, and one of Mark Melancon and David Robertson is likely to go down to Scranton. I think the Yankees have seemed intent on keeping Melancon with the big club, and he will stay. However, whichever of the two the Yankees choose to send down may not be gone for long. If Gaudin takes Sergio Mitre’s rotation spot, we may see Mitre jettisoned in favor of the previously discarded reliever. It should be interesting to keep an eye on.

Rebecca at TPBP recaps an interesting moment from last night’s game:

There’s one moment from tonight’s game that keeps cropping up in my mind, even a couple hours after it’s over.

It’s in the ninth inning; there are two outs with Carlos Gomez at first in a one run game, and Phil Coke is struggling to throw strikes.

Instead of, say, Jeter and Canó heading out to the mound to calm Phil Coke, it’s Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Peña.

It was a sight that I certainly noticed, as I am sure many Yankees fans did. Cervelli, Coke, and Pena are some of the lesser fruits of the labor that Brian Cashman has done to rebuild this farm system. Not everyone is destined to be star, nor is a system expected to churn out multiple stars every season. However, being able to fill in the fringes of the roster with homegrown players can be vitally important to the success of the team and the economic bottom line. Players like Cervelli and Pena keep the Yankees from having to run out and make a move to replace injured players or fill in on the bench.

Pena and Cervelli are what they are- very good defensive players who are not going to hit much, but are not overwhelmed at the plate. That was the scouting report on them, and that is what we have seen thus far. I can easily envision these two being members of the Yankees bench for a long time.

When Alex Rodriguez went down with his hip injury, there were some who decided that the club would be better off without him. Due to Ramiro Pena’s recent run of good play, some of those voices have regained their vigor after faltering a bit due to Cody Ransom’s poor start. In response, I wanted to post an interesting comment that I saw on Lohud a few days ago, courtesy of commenter Wave Your Hat. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the numbers, but they look right to me:

In 21 games, Ransom was about 4.4 runs worse than the average hitter, Berroa was .8 runs worse and Pena 1.9 runs worse.
Between them, they were 7.1 runs worse than the average hitter. Maybe Pena and Berroa had a few at bats playing other positions, but not enough to worry about.
Last year, which was far from ARod’s best year, he was 38.1 runs better than the average hitter in 138 games. If ARod had not been hurt and had performed at last year’s rate, he could be expected to have been about 5.72 runs better than the average hitter over that same 21 game period.
That means, looking just at hitting, ARod would have been about 12.82 runs better than the Ransom/Berroa/Pena combination over our first 21 games. That doesn’t include all the runs his defense might have saved over the Ransom/Berroa combo.
At the accepted 10 runs equaling a win, that means last year’s ARod would have been about 1.25 wins better over the first 21 games than Ransom/Berroa/Pena, which translates to about 9.6 wins better over a full season.
9.6 wins is a staggeringly huge number. And that’s using ARod’s sub-par 2008 year. On career numbers, it’s more than that. And that’s not including ARod’s glove versus Ransom’s or Berroa’s.

The difference between the motley crew occupying 3rd base and A-Rod is enormous, and the boost Alex should give the already percolating offense cannot be overstated. He may add some controversy to the mix, but that is certainly a burden the Yankees will accept to gain almost 10 wins.