Now that's just wrong. Funny, but wrong
Brian kind of looks like Lee Harvey Oswald, doesn’t he? Anyway, a few potential Yankee targets went off the board late last night, and some deals are close that may affect others. Here’s a recap of Wednesday’s events:
-The Rays acquired closer Rafael Soriano from the Braves in exchange for Jesse Chavez, pending medicals. Tampa will assume Soriano’s (estimated 7-8 mil) salary.
-The Texas Rangers signed Rich Harden to a one year, $7.5MM contract that includes an option for 2011.
-On the heels of the Penny and Harden deals, now Ben Sheets is seeking 12 mil per year.
-The Yanks are one of seven teams pursuing Nick Johnson, who would be a very, very intriguing possibility at DH. If he could play any LF whatsoever (only 2 career games) it becomes even more alluring.
-The Angels and Phillies have emerged as the lead horses in the race to acquire Roy Halladay. Philadelphia is said to be offering a package that will include J.A. Happ, plus either Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown. Other reports have them including Cole Hamels. Previous stories that emerged stated that Halladay wouldn’t accept a deal to the west coast AND wants to train near his home in Florida. The Angels spring training facility is located in Tempe Arizona. Sounds to me like Roy is just helping his team out by expanding the numbers of suitors, I’d put my money on a deal to Philly. Philly GM Ruben Amaro walked away from a Halladay deal last year and was a pitcher short of winning the World Series.
-The Red Sox and Texas Rangers moved closer to a deal that would exchange Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez. That would open 3B in Fenway for Adrian Beltre, who the Sox have expressed an interest in. It could also possibly open up 1B (move Youkilis to 3B) for a blockbuster deal for Adrian Gonzalez or Miguel Cabrera, though nothing has been rumored yet. Don’t underestimate Theo, he believes in being bold.
Photo courtesy of NoMaas
(Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
UPDATE-Joel Sherman Tweets that the Yanks won’t be trading for him.
From MLBTR
Rafael Soriano accepted arbitration, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Braves, who recently signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito, will have lots of relatively expensive relievers under contract now. Imagine if Mike Gonzalez accepts, too.
As ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick points out, the Braves need Soriano’s permission to trade him before June 15th. Apparently Soriano prefers the security of a one-year deal to the uncertainty of a market that would have been dulled by his Type A status.
6:56pm: Braves GM Frank Wren told MLB.com’s Mark Bowman he’d expect Soriano to request a trade if he accepts arbitration. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports expects this decision to go down to the buzzer.
12:40pm: MLB.com’s Mark Bowman says Soriano’s agent Peter Greenberg will make the rounds today, talking to as many teams as possible before making the arbitration decision.
11:29am: Heyman notes that Soriano has attracted interest from the Yankees, Orioles, and Astros. The Yankees would give up their #32 pick, the Orioles #37, or the Astros #43.
This intrigues me to no end. Estimates are he’d get around 7-8 mil in arbitration, since he’s coming off a good season and made 6.35 mil last year. To put that into some context in the current marketplace, the Braves just gave Billy Wagner 7 mil to close for them next year, and Soriano is seen as more of a swing man who could set up or close, but not a pure closer. Which is a roundabout way of saying he’s not worth 7-8 mil on the open market.
Given the youth in the Yankee bullpen there’s certainly room for more veteran presence, right now everyone but Mo and Marte are youngsters. If Joba and Hughes are targeted for the rotation next year as many suspect, the bridge to Mariano would be something the Yanks would like to address this off season. The absence of 2009 Phil Hughes would leave a gaping hole in the 2010 bullpen. With the Yanks dealing off Brian Bruney to the Nationals yesterday they saved themselves an estimated 2 mil for next season right there, so overpaying a bit for Soriano is easier for Brian Cashman to swallow.
Cashman is on the record saying he doesn’t want to give up a draft pick for a setup man, and tries not to hand out long term deals to free agent relievers given their volatile nature. But with Soriano accepting arbitration I don’t think you’d even have to give up that much. He’d be getting paid much more for 2010 than he would get on the open market, which is why he wanted to accept arbitration in the first place. If he’s overpaid in dollars he has very little residual trade value, if any. Fangraphs has him worth 9.1 mil last year, yet worth only .5 the year before and 1.7 in 2007. His injury history makes him unlikely to be a good investment, and setup men are never worth as much as closers.
The Braves would be happy just to get rid of his salary for next year. It would be the Juan Cruz situation all over again where you give up a token player, one who may soon be out of options anyway, and just agree to pay him for one year. However, there seems to be a bit more demand for Soriano than there was for Cruz last year, which went all the way to spring. This looks like it will be wrapped up quickly, and that could drive up the return for Braves GM Frank Wren. But make no mistake, the Braves have their backs to the wall. They have to move him. As an organization they have always had a set budget and paying him 8 mil would mean dumping another salary (or two) they’d prefer to keep. They’d be highly motivated sellers.
This is the type of thing teams try to work out in advance, and the reports of Soriano’s agent gauging landing spots for him fits that scenario. A relief pitcher with Rafael’s ability on a 1 year deal is sweet, even if it is a bit pricey. I do this yesterday.
This post is in response to the following, via Sam Borden (LoHud):
Thumbs down to anyone who wants the Yankees to go after a ‘big-name’ reliever like Mike Gonzalez or Rafael Soriano…. I’d rather see more of Dave Robertson in 2010 than end up with another Kyle Farnsworth.
The perspective is understandable, however, note the following numbers:
In the first row, we have one of the greatest relievers of all time, Kyle Farnsworth, prior to his “memorable” stint with the Yankees. I’ve actually excluded his 1999 season from the stats, simply because of his undefined role at the time (he began as a starter and transitioned to a full-time reliever the following year, in April 2000). After Farnsworth, we then have the current career statistics for Type-A free agent reliever, Rafael Soriano. It’s important to note that Soriano’s numbers are based primarily on his time with the Mariners, in the American League, whereas Farnsworth’s statistics, outside of 42 2/3 innings with the Tigers in 2005, were all produced in the National League (Cubs, Braves).
Based on the numbers featured in the table above, it’s clear that Rafael Soriano is no Kyle Farnsworth, as he has been a much more effective pitcher throughout his career. The difference in productivity between the two becomes even more apparent when you examine each pitcher’s annual FIP. For instance, in 2000 and 2002, Farnsworth’s FIP was 5.68 and 5.11. He also posted a 4.23 FIP in 2004 (in the NL, mind you). Thus, his 3.93 FIP prior to joining the Yankees isn’t really a solid representation of his work (there were some extreme FIP variations). Conversely, after Soriano’s rookie year in 2002, a year in which he posted a 4.82 FIP, the former Brave never posted an FIP in the 4+ range outside of 2007 (4.17 FIP). Therefore, when compared to Farnsworth’s career FIP, Soriano’s 3.31 is a consistent creation. It’s not the byproduct of both poor seasons and excellent seasons (it’s continued excellence, rather).
When the Yankees signed Kyle Farnsworth, he was a performative gamble in that the consistency wasn’t there. With Soriano, the only significant issue is his health. He’ll cost a draft pick if signed, which, of course, stings. However, Soriano’s arm appears worth it, especially if Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain aren’t in the bullpen next season.
Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images
Despite Brian Cashman’s recent admission, that the bullpen is not an “area of obvious need,” today Buster Olney (ESPN) writes that the Yankees “No. 1 area of focus, beyond the Damon/Matsui realm: their bullpen. They will look for two relievers, in all likelihood.” This is a strange comment, as the team’s second real need “beyond the Damon/Matsui realm” seems to be fleshing out their rotation (Cashman said as much yesterday), but Olney’s assertion certainly make sense when you consider the relief realities that the Yankees will ultimately have to account for next season.
First, if we are to believe that the Yankees will use him as a starter in 2010, then the team will feature a bullpen absent an effective Phil Hughes (he was worth 2.2 WAR as a reliever). Plus, outside of Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, and a healthy Damaso Marte, you’re not really sure what to expect of Phil Coke, Alfredo Aceves and, dare I say, Brian Bruney next season. Furthermore, having some effective depth, and specifically effective veteran depth (which was sorely missed in the postseason), in the bullpen will allow the Yankees to employ Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as starters, rather than relievers (for the entire season). For these reasons, I do think that the Yankees will and should look to bolster their bullpen, however, adding two relievers, as Olney suggests, probably won’t occur as even one deal can be a risky proposition (e.g., Farnsworth, Hawkins, etc.). Still, adding just one reliever can work if it’s the right guy.
This winter, I believe Rafael Soriano is the right guy.
After having two surgical procedures conducted on his right elbow last summer—ulnar ligament transposition and bone spur removal—the hard-throwing righty missed most of the 2008 season and failed to build on a strong ‘07 campaign. However, in 2009, Soriano returned with a vengeance, as he split time closing games for Atlanta with Mike Gonzalez earlier in the year, and then ran away with the closer role later in the season. Thanks to a ferocious mid-90’s fastball and a sharp slider, he posted a 2.97 ERA (2.54 FIP) over 75 2/3 innings pitched, saving 27 games while striking out 102 hitters (that’s a K/9 of 12.13). Basically, when he’s healthy, Soriano is one of the best relievers in baseball and, as Keith Law (ESPN) noted, he is currently “the best reliever on the market, and better than any of the closers available on last winter’s market, including the vaunted K-Rod.” The only real knocks on Soriano are his health history—not only did he have elbow surgery last year, he also had Tommy John surgery in 2004, causing him to miss ‘04-05—and his price tag, after establishing himself as a closer with the Braves. It is important to note, though, that the 29-year old has been healthy for 3 of the last 4 years, and he has not explicitly stated that he hopes to continue closing in 2010.
If the Yankees were to sign anyone to help the team’s relief corps, it seems as though Soriano would be an extremely good fit given his dominant skill set. He’s a young, powerful arm, capable of pitching in high leverage situations, and could serve as the bridge to Mariano Rivera. By adding an effective reliever of Soriano’s ilk, the New York bullpen would be deepened to the point where utilizing Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes for relief outs would become a thing of the past. If Buster Olney is correct and the Yankees intend on looking for “two relievers” this winter, they might as well put all of their multimillion dollar eggs into one particularly talented basket and sign the best reliever available.
Photo by Kevin Cox/Getty Images
Rafael Soriano-One of the top free agent relievers available this off season
One of the Yanks biggest needs this off season may be finding a setup man to replace the stellar work Phil Hughes did this past season. If Hughes is targeted for the rotation next year (early indications say that he is) then there will be a gaping hole that needs to be filled in the bridge to Mariano Rivera. While everyone seems to be focused on Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, finding a primary set up man to build a bridge to Mariano may be the Yanks biggest need this off season.
First approach to consider would be internal options. Damaso Marte, David Robertson, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke and possibly Mark Melancon would all be possibilities for this role. Let’s walk through them one by one.
Damaso Marte-His rates have all been surprisingly good with the Yanks, but his ERA is high and he hasn’t been overly effective except for stretches here and there. When the Yanks got him, they believed they acquired a pitcher who could get both Righties and Lefties out (as he did in PITT) but last year Righties destroyed him in limited action. A Lefty specialist role seems to suit him best in the AL East.
David Robertson-Breakout season for the Alabama native, with a SO/9IP rate that was among the best in the majors. Fastball sits in the low 90s but plays up due to good late life on the pitch. Compliments the fastball with an outstanding, late-breaking curve. When he works low in the zone with those two pitches, he can be very tough. But he could also be a 1 year wonder. His control has always been average and if he loses that late life on the fastball for any reason, he becomes very hittable. He’s earned a larger role, but we still need to see more.
Brian Bruney-I think both fans and Yankee execs alike are sick of waiting for the good Bruney to show up. We saw it for a brief stretch in 2008, but a Lisfranc injury derailed him that season. This year, a recurring elbow injury and whispers that he’ll ultimately need TJS made for a frustrating and mostly ineffective campaign. It’s an open question whether he’s a non-tender candidate, but I’ll guess they bring him back one more time.
Phil Coke-His propensity for giving up HRs to Lefties as a Lefty specialist in Yankee Stadium has to concern you, but it’s possible that its just a statistical blip in a short career. He was one of the Yanks go-to guys earlier this season, and pitched his way down in the pecking order over the course of the season. His one World Series outing went horrendously, giving up 2 HRs to Utley and Ibanez (both Lefty hitters) in a low leverage situation in Game 5. You’ll keep him around since he’s relatively young (26) and cheap, but won’t lean on him too heavily. He has ‘cup of coffee in the bigs’ written all over him.
Mark Melancon-Yanks are still high on him, but for a kid who we all heard had ‘off the charts make-up’ he certainly seemed spooked by the bigs. That’s OK, you expect rookies to be nervous and I suspect he’ll make the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training if he has a decent spring. After that, it will be up to him to earn a larger role.
So unless you want to go Lefty-Righty with a combo of D-Rob and Marte (which isn’t crazy) it appears the Yanks will need a big time reliever to fill that 8th inning role. The problem with that setup tandem is that you’ve weakened the prior group, so when a starter gets knocked out in the 6th you’d be looking at Bruney/Coke/Melancon/Aceves to get you to your dynamic duo. You’d like to have the talent spread around a bit more, if Bruney, Coke and Melancon repeat their 09 campaigns, you’ll be losing a lot of games in those middle innings. Throw in an injury or two and things could get even uglier. The best way to approach this would be to get someone who can get Righties and Lefties out to set up for Mo.
So now that we’ve established we could use an arm (or two), we move on to our free agent options. The 2010 Free agent list for middle relievers doesn’t excite me, so I’d pursue one of the closers and see if they’d be interested in setting up. The two that stand out on that list are Lefty Mike Gonzalez and Righty Rafael Soriano. Both were on the Atlanta Braves last season, Gonzalez was the Braves primary setup man for most of the 2009 season and Soriano was their closer, although both have played each role in recent years. Soriano was setting up for Gonzalez in 2008. The Yanks have expressed an interest in Gonzalez in the past, they pursued him aggressively when he was made available by the Pirates in 2007, but the Braves offer of Jamie Romak (minors) and Adam LaRoche proved to be the winning bid. Signing someone with closer ability also provides some insurance if the 39 year old Mariano Rivera begins showing signs of age, but I gave up waiting for that about 3 years ago.
Another thing to consider is the Type A Draft pick status of both pitchers. I’ve heard some fans claim that it’s not worth the 1st draft pick to sign any reliever. That may be true with fringe Type As (see Juan Cruz last year) it’s not the case with proven talents like Gonzalez and Soriano. Look at it this way. If you signed Pitcher X with the 30th pick of the 2010 draft, and after 3 years in your farm system he turned into a solid reliever, you’d be happy. If he was hurt after 3-4 years with the team and/or lost his effectiveness, you wouldn’t be all that surprised. Given the attrition rates on pitchers (especially draftees) it’s tough to go nuts about losing a draft pick when you sign a proven MLB reliever for multiple years. I’m well aware of the fact that MLB relievers can be up and down as well, but that applies every bit as much to home grown relievers as it does FA’s, if not more. Will anyone be shocked if Phil Coke pitches his way off the Yanks and is DFA’d next season? Not me. Yet if Gonzalez or Soriano bombed out here (far less likely) they would still have value on the trade market. All of that should be factored in. Also consider that a MLB pitcher has a proven track record of staying healthy, whereas so many pitchers with all the talent in the world get drafted and never make it to the bigs for health-related reasons. I value filling that need now with a proven MLB player more than a prospect who may very well never arrive. Yanks are a win now team, this is one of the times when that changes how you approach things. This team needs this specific role filled this season.
So the draft pick compensation for relievers doesn’t bother me when discussing high-end types (Fringy middle relievers are another matter). The only real argument I can see is the money you lost, and for the Yanks that’s no big deal. Mike Gonzalez and/or Rafael Soriano would be great additions to the Yanks.
