John Manuel was asked about Austin Romine in a recent ESPN chat, and this is what he had to say:

David (Atlanta): What kind of bat potential (power and average) does Austin Romine have?

John Manuel (3:11 PM): He should settle in as a .260-.270 hitter with 15-20 homers annually, which is pretty good for a good defensive catcher.

While those numbers seem a bit modest, Manuel is spot on when he says that is pretty strong for a good defensive catcher. I took a look at this past season’s numbers to see how many catchers passed the low end of those two thresholds (I know that batting average is not a perfect metric, but it is the one Manuel used and it is decent for weeding out those who cannot hit at all). 11 catchers hit at least 15 homers, while 13 catchers with more than 300 PA’s batted at least .260. However, just 8 passed both of those thresholds:

Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Jorge Posada
Brian McCann
Bengie Molina
Mike Napoli
Miguel Montero
Kurt Suzuki

Of the 8, only Mauer, Molina, Suzuki, and maybe McCann are considered above average defensively, and Molina and Suzuki both had hollow batting averages (neither walked very much: 13 for Molina, 28 for Suzuki). If Romine can come close to Manuel’s offensive projection for him and remains above average defensively, he is likely to be a top 6-7 MLB catcher and would certainly be a suitable replacement for Jorge Posada.

Photo Credit: Scott Jonte

From Ben Shpigel:

They still see him as a top-of-the-rotation force but, because of his unusual past, also as someone who must be evaluated differently from his peers.

A basketball career at North Carolina State and reconstructive elbow surgery, nine days after the Yankees signed him as a first-round pick in August 2007, curbed Brackman’s innings count in college and winter ball to 184 1/3 before he made his debut last season for Charleston.

“We weren’t surprised that he had these growing pains,” said Mark Newman, the Yankees’ senior vice president for baseball operations. “We knew that going in. Where we draft, we don’t get opportunities for guys like Andrew, who’s a heck of an athlete and has an incredible arm. That’s what’s so attractive about him.”

I think it is a bit early for Yankee fans to be throwing the “bust” word around when talking about Brackman. Make no mistake, he had an atrocious season, both in terms of process and in regard to his results. 2-12 with a 5.91 ERA cannot be rationalized away, and Brackman’s prospect status certainly took a major hit. His only success came out of the bullpen in the final month of the season, but the Yankees did not draft Brackman in the first round to be an ace reliever. They picked him to be an ace, and right now that is looking fairly unlikely.

All that said, I believe that bolded sentence is the most important of the entire piece, and one that Yankees fans should pay heed to when thinking about Brackman. Brackman had very little college or pro experience coming into this past season, and was coming off major reconstructive surgery. Last season was more about staying healthy and simply pitching than numbers and results. Now, the Yankees certainly would have preferred if his mechanics would not have gotten so far out of whack so as to require that they be entirely rebuilt, but that sort of setback is not entirely unpredictable for a 6 foot 10 inch pitcher returning from major injury. He is simply not your typical prospect that can be evaluated based upon the same time frames as other pitchers.

2010 is an important season for Andrew Brackman. He has had enough distance from his surgery, has had his delivery reinvented by Nardi Contreras, and will be given every opportunity to succeed by the Yankees. He is not yet a bust, and there is still hope. But it is time for Brackman to turn his potential into results.

In NoMaas’ interview with Brian Cashman, the GM was asked about Jesus Montero’s fate as a catcher.

He responded to the question, “Do you think [Montero's] future is behind the plate,” with the following:

We hope so. His value is highest as a catcher. His bat will find a way into the middle of the lineup, that’s without a doubt. Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first baseman, a rightfielder, a DH – that remains to be seen. But he’s got one of the best throwing arms in the minors, he’s got some of the best blocking…he’s just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release. That’s an area he needs to shorten up.

Note that Cashman rattles off “right fielder,” before designated hitter, as if being a DH is the last option if everything else fails. From what I’ve read, Montero could play first base, though his lack of foot speed would preclude him from being an outfielder. Conversely, Cashman does not seem to agree with that assessment, at least not here. Montero has not seen any time in the outfield during his short minor-league career, but if he can somehow man right field in the future – or left, but his arm strength might play better in right – then it would be a tremendous plus for the Yankees.

Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images

From George King:

“The Yankees have been on him for a while,” said a scout who saw the 21-year-old shortstop work out recently in the Dominican Republic. “Two weeks ago, about 50 scouts watched him work out and the Yankees were there. They also have seen him in smaller workouts.”
Because the Red Sox gave 19-year old shortstop Jose Iglesias $8 million, industry sources expect the right-handed-hitting Hechavarria to command a $7 to $8 million signing bonus.
“Maybe more because his bat is better than Iglesias’,” a scout said.

The article goes on to quote another scout, one who believes Adeiny is ticketed for CF and could be a BJ Upton type player. A third scout noted that Hechevarria likely would have been a first round pick in last season’s draft. All of this seems a bit overblown. This is something that seems to happen a lot with international free agents, usually because there are a lot fewer independent scouts viewing these players and the players often limit their exposure to controlled workouts. As such, I would take everything in this article with a giant grain of salt.

That said, Adeiny seems to have drawn some interest from a number of MLB teams, and if the claim that he would have been a first rounder is true, it would behoove the Yankees to make a push for him. SS is a position of organizational weakness, as most of the prospects that they have at that spot profile to be nothing more than utility players. Furthermore, with an international draft likely to be discussed in the upcoming CBA negotiations, it makes sense for the club to make its presence felt on the international market while it still can. If they get lucky, they might just discover Jeter’s replacement.

Here is a scouting report on Hechevearria (h/t Pending Pinstripes).

Not that long ago, the Yankees had more pitching depth than they could have dreamed of. The Triple-A rotation was so full that qualified pitchers had to move to Double-A, and the team even let a few go in the Rule V draft. An impressive amount of pitching has left the organization over the past two years. Off the top of my head, the Yankees have traded, let loose, or seen the (maybe temporary) demise of: Ross Ohlendorf, Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ian Kennedy, George Kontos, Kei Igawa, Eric Hacker, Jeff Marquez, Steve White, Tyler Clippard, Matt DeSalvo and Phil Coke, while Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Alfredo Aceves sit comfortably in the major leagues.

While there’s not a ton of major league success there, that’s the nature of depth pitching. A lot of it won’t work out, so having many options is necessary to ensure a not-so-disastrous outcome if a starter goes down. I’m going to separate Yankee depth into three categories: ready now, ready potentially some time this year, ready potentially some time next year.

Ready Now

Right now, the Yankees would almost certainly go to their major league roster before their Triple-A group to fill long and short term vacancies in their rotation. The loser of the Hughes/Chamberlain competition is definitely the best option, but Chad Gaudin is no slouch. I get the sense that Alfredo Aceves will be a reliever from here on out, since the Yankees felt it necessary to carry two legitimate long relievers on their roster. Sergio Mitre is one of them, and he seems terribly out of place. Gaudin can do everything that Mitre can, but better. I don’t understand why the Yankees are holding on to Mitre, and I’m a little bit worried that they’ll feel obligated to use him as a spot starter. Uninspiring names like Jason Hirsch follow here. Hopefully, we won’t have to see any pointless veteran call ups in the rotation this year.

Regardless, the Yankees have so-so depth here. It depends on how you view Hughes or Chamberlain. Will they undergo a mid-season conversion in the case of long-term need? I think that they should but we’ll see. If all we need this season is for Gaudin or Mitre to fill a few spot starts, we’re going to win the division by a mile.

Potentially Ready This Season

Now, we dip into the Triple-A roster. Ivan Nova is already on the 40-man roster, so I’d expect him to (all else being equal) be the first call up. Nova isn’t as safe a bet as you’d like for someone in this position, but he’s got some upside, and the Yankees sure do love him. At some point, we’ll see him in the majors in 2010. Zach McAllister is next, who does not own a 40-man spot. I don’t really expect the Yankees will be at all hesitant to burn one of McAllister’s options, so he’s not far behind Nova in turns of depth. Really, we’ll probably see the guy pitching the best get the call-up.

Below the “big two” are two names that will take a little bit of development to make their season debuts. The first should be familiar to fans of this blog: Wilkins De La Rosa. De La Rosa is a converted outfielder who spent the first part of his pitching career throwing absolute gas from the left side in relief. I was probably not the only person to be surprised to see the Yankees convert him to starting, and then see him stick there. Long term, a lot of people see De La Rosa as a relief pitcher, but he was very strong in the Trenton Thunder rotation, so we’ll see. The second is Lance Pendleton, who is a less familiar name. Overcoming some major injuries in his career, Pendleton has set himself back on track with a really strong 2009 performance (149 innings, 3.14 ERA, 130/46 K/BB), and will start the season in Double-A. He’s 26 years old, so the Yankees could fast track him if he performs.

The next two to watch are Ryan Pope and Jeremy Bleich. Both are fairly healthy, talented pitchers who have some learning issues to overcome before being put into the major league pitcher. Bleich proved especially hittable last season, allowing a 6.65 ERA and 84 hits in 65 Double-A innings. The good news on Bleich is that his strikeout rate neared the magical 1 per inning mark, with 60 during that time. Ryan Pope is less talented, but slightly more established than Bleich. His full season at Double-A reminded us why Carlos Silva (his comparable) was a really bad guy for the Mariners to sign. Pope allowed a 4.78 ERA and 155 hits in 141 innings despite only 34 walks allowed.

A few more names could pop up if they have exceptional seasons. D.J. Mitchell put himself on the map last season, and will likely start the season in Double-A. George Kontos could make a late-season surgery comeback, as could Christian Garcia or Alan Horne. But really, this is the 2010 list, and it is much weaker than last season.

Potentially Ready Sometime in 2011

Here, the Yankees look to start rebuilding their solid pitching depth. 2009 standouts Adam Warren, Josh Phelps and Hector Noesi all have a lot of good things about them. Warren and Phelps join Mitchell as NCAA veterans with good enough fastballs to be be able to learn how to pitch in the major leagues, similar to guys like George Kontos, Tim Norton, and Ross Ohlendorf in the Yankees’ past. I always feel that guys like these are chronically underrated on draft day. I’m willing to bet that at least 1 of the crew pitches in the majors that year.

Andrew Brackman lurks in the background, offering so much promise despite the frustration that he causes fans. Manuel Banuelos is only going to be 19 years old, but couldn’t have pitched any better in his major league debut. He’s got enough talent to climb to the majors if the Yankees are willing to push him. Finally, Jairo Heredia, who missed all of 2008, is another guy with tons of talent and polish who will open just a few strong months away from a Double-A promotion.

Conclusion

I listed a lot of names here. Fact is: the Yankees don’t have the depth they had before. Sitting with Hughes, Joba, and Kennedy in your back pocket is a really nice place to be. The guys at the top have a lot of question marks, and below them doesn’t lie a whole lot of immediate hope. The good news is that the Yankees could very quickly put themselves in to a position to return to the lands of abundance, and that’s a real nice place to be.

There is another piece of good news: the current rotation. Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Vazquez are one of the most exceptionally healthy top-4s in the major leagues in the past few years, and Joba Chamberlain has a pretty good health record himself. This isn’t 2007 or 2006, when the Yankees opened the season with huge question marks to answer. They shouldn’t need the depth, which affords them the luxury of time.

Each year, USA Today creates a list of minor leaguers/rookies that all baseball fans should know and watch for in 2010. This is not a top prospect list, but is a list of the 100 players most likely to reach the majors for more than a cup of coffee, and make some sort of impact. Last year’s list included Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson, and David Robertson, with Gardner and Robertson scoring regular roles on the 2009 Yankees. This year’s list includes 2 former Yankees (Jackson and Jose Tabata), and 4 current Yankees:

52. Mark Melancon, RHP, Yankees: Next in line to continue the run of success the Yankees had last season with young pitchers setting up in front of closer Mariano Rivera, Melancon, 24, should fill one of the openings. He’s a hard thrower with a sharp-breaking curve. Groomed as a reliever since turning pro in 2006, he has bounced back well from missing 2007 after Tommy John elbow surgery.

56. Zach McAllister, RHP, Yankees: He’s a sinkerballer who induces plenty of ground balls and can pitch himself into the mix as a 22-year-old this spring. Major league bullpen work is a possibility, but McAllister would be among the first to be considered if there’s a need for a major league starter. His chances would improve if the Yankees decide to keep Phil Hughes in the bullpen.

58. Jamie Hoffmann, OF, Yankees: Hoffman, 25, is a strong defender who can play all three outfield positions, has plenty of speed and is a consistent contact hitter. That’s why the Yankees believe he someday will be an everyday player. In the meantime, Hoffman must be good enough to make the roster because he was a Rule 5 draft selection from the Dodgers and must be offered back to Los Angeles before he can be sent to the minors.

66. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees: His power is his biggest asset, but the fact that he’s a catcher and there’s no other obvious successor to Jorge Posada could have Montero, just 20, in the major leagues this season. Barring an emergency, his initial stay won’t be long because he has had only a half-season at Class AA and needs to continue developing his defensive game.

I am assuming that Ramiro Pena and Frankie Cervelli do not qualify, as both have an excellent chance to play roles on the 2010 club. I would be surprised if any of the four listed above make the club out of spring training, which would likely mean that Hoffmann will be returned to the Dodgers. Furthermore, I do not think it is likely that we see Zach McCallister at all this season, as he is at best 9th on the starting pitching depth chart and still has room for improvement at the AAA level. Montero seems to be a longshot as well, but a major injury to Jorge Posada or a late season loss of Nick Johnson could press him into MLB duty. It is unlikely, but possible, as the Yankees will certainly be tempted to use Montero for his bat should those players go down. Finally, I think Melancon has the best chance of the four to stick with the Yankees for much of the season, as he could nab the last bullpen spot out of camp and has the talent to hold onto a spot once he is given the chance.

What do you think of this list? Are there other minor leaguers that you think can have an impact on the 2010 Yankees? How about Romulo Sanchez? Ivan Nova? Kevin Russo?

Sean over at Pending Pinstripes did what I was thinking about doing but too lazy to pull the trigger on: he averaged the top-20 prospect lists of every major prospect pundit out there, including my list, and merged it in to one list. Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino were eliminated the the lists were adjusted.

Here is my list, and here is the averaged list, with ratings on a 1-240 scale:

1. Jesus Montero – 240
2. Austin Romine – 216
3. Zach McAllister – 207
4. Manny Banuelos – 205
5. Slade Heathcott – 187
6. JR Murphy – 125
7. Andrew Brackman – 100
8. Mark Melancon- 98
9. Jeremey Bleich- 91
10. Ivan Nova- 78
11. Jairo Heredia-77
12. Kelvin De Leon- 76
13. DJ Mitchell- 72
14. Gary Sanchez- 59
15. Wilkens De La Rosa- 48
16. Corban Joseph- 48
17. David Adams- 35
18. Adam Warren- 30
19. Dellin Betances- 28
20. Jose Ramirez – 22

There is a good deal of variation after the top-5. The biggest disagreement against my own list involve J.R. Murphy (I rated him 13th), D.J. Mitchell (I rated him 21st), and Francisco Cervelli (I rated him 11th, he doesn’t appear on this list at all). Besides that, the lists are in quite a bit of agreement.

I’d like to defend the three variances briefly.

J.R. Murphy – I definitely have loved what I’ve seen since the draft. The seven-figure signing bonus, the brief but strong hitting spree in short-season ball, and all the scouting reports have been really encouraging. However, I think that we may be jumping the gun a bit on our second-round pick. We’re not all that sure what position he may wind up in. A lot of people think he’s more of an outfielder than a catcher. He’s good, but if you asked me if I’d trade Mark Melancon for J.R. Murphy, I’d say “No” and not think twice about it.

D.J. Mitchell – Mitchell legitimately had a really great season. He surprised us all and definitely made himself a legit starting prospect. Still, he had some control problems against left-handed hitters that are troubling if he is to remain a starter, and is already entering his age-23 season. #13 is a bit high, I think.

Francisco Cervelli – Did people forget about him? Cervelli is still rookie-eligible, so he’s still a prospect in my books. He has been consistently underrated by prospect watchers for his whole career, and I’ve caught some heat for rating him in the 10-15 range several times. Cervelli is a legit defensive star with more stick than Jose Molina. That’s got a lot of value, and he’s about to bring it to the majors. Good for him.

While the Yankee bloggers on this list saved him, Zach McAllister has been chronically underrated by MLB-wide lists. I think that he’d going to show a lot of people what he can do in 2010, and be an important part of the Yankees depth chart. If he does work out, he’ll also be a big victory for the Yankee pitching development staff, who completely rebuilt his pitching style from the ground up.

From the Pitt Trib (h/t BBTF):

His birth certificate and passport say outfielder Jose Tabata was born Aug. 12, 1988, in Anzoategui, Venezuela. Yet, during a recent radio interview, general manager Neal Huntington admitted there are “a lot of rumblings” that Tabata might actually be in his mid-20s.

In Latin America, record-keeping can be spotty, especially when it comes to youngsters with excellent baseball skills. The New York Yankees investigated Tabata’s background in 2005 and, satisfied he truly was 16, signed him as an undrafted free agent.

The Pirates are not publicly disputing Tabata’s age, and yet …

“All of the documentation he has used to obtain his visa from the U.S. government and his passport from the Venezuelan government indicates his reported age is accurate,” Huntington said in an e-mail to the Tribune-Review. “Apart from unfounded speculation, there is nothing to indicate his age any different than reported. My point is that while we have reason to doubt his reported age, it is a non-issue to us.”

The Pirates likely have no issue with this simply because there is not much they can do about it at this point. If Tabata is actually 25, he will lose an immense amount of value, going from a precocious 21 year old to a player a bit old for his level, and there is nothing the Pirates can do to forestall that. Tabata has always been about projection and potential rather than performance, such that any years added to his age will do more damage to his status as a prospect than it would to someone who has been able to perform at a high level in the minors. The constant refrain that his power will come later might lose all of its validity if he is already in his mid-20’s. Although the Yankees did not get exactly what they had hoped from that trade, it seems like the questions surrounding Tabata may have been valid all along.

Photo Credit: Mike Ashmore’s Thunder Thoughts

When the Rays shockingly took the division in 2008, many Yankee fans dismissed it as an aberration, and suggested that the Rays would fall out of contention once their current crop of younger stars neared free agency. However, it seems that the Rays have a contingency plan in place to prevent that from happening. From Buster Olney:

But if they languish in the AL East race behind the Yankees and Red Sox, or if they got hit by a wave of injuries, then there would appear to be a chance that they would start looking to deal Crawford, Pena, Soriano and others.

Just like sailors in a lifeboat, the Rays must constantly bail payroll, whenever and wherever they can, which is why they must rely, always, on the young and cheap players whenever and however they can. “It’s what we have to do,” said Andrew Friedman, the Rays’ general manager. “It’s our lot in life. We have to have as many different options of talented players to mix and match and construct a 25-man roster as we can.”

The development of three rising prospects in particular will be crucial for the Rays, for this season, and for seasons to come…..

(Buster goes on to provide reports on Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, and Jeremy Hellickson).

Recently, I had the opportunity to ask a MLB GM with a payroll similar to that of the Rays about the way in which teams operate under such constraints. He explained to me that teams like his and the Rays work in cycles, whereby they attempt to develop a crop of prospects, ride them to contention through their arbitration years, and then trade them for more prospects so as to start the cycle over. In this way, they hope to contend for 2-3 seasons, with each cycle lasting 6-7 years. This is how it works for most clubs, with the Marlins, Athletics, and Indians providing a fine example of this system.

However, the Rays have become so good at developing talent that, at least for now, they seem poised to bypass the downturn of their current cycle. As they shed players such as Crawford and Scott Kazmir, they are ready to replace them with mega-prospects such as the three discussed by Buster. With this base of talent available to them (they are a top 3 system by every ranking I have seen), they should remain a threat to the Yankees for a while yet.

Photo Credit: NY Daily News

Each year, Keith Law follows his top 100 prospects list with a list of sleepers not in the top 100 who might take large leaps in the upcoming minor league season. Last year’s list is peppered with prospects that are now highly regarded, with Arodys Vizcaino being the Yankee entrant in 2009. In 2010, the Yankee sleeper is Jose Ramirez:

Right-hander Jose Ramirez is long and loose with room to fill out, but can already run his fastball up to 95-96, locate it to his glove side and turn over a changeup. His main drawback is the lack of an average breaking ball.

Ramirez, the Short Season Pitcher of the Year, was 6th on KLaw’s top 10 Yankee prospects list, behind Montero, Banuelos, McCallister, Romine, and Heathcott. He was only 18th on John Sickels list, but Sickels did tout him as a sleeper for 2010 as well. Greg over at Pending Pinstripes has been high on Ramirez for a while now, and recently profiled the large righty:

After the 2008 season, the Yankee pitching gurus tweaked Jose Ramirez’s delivery. He now has a much easier delivery with a stronger finish. I believe he added some weight, and that also contributed to the added velocity. Towards the end of the year, he was sitting 94-95 with his fastball and topping out at 96. Right now though, his most impressive pitch is his changeup. He throws it from the same arm slot as his fastball and it is very deceiving. At times, it flashes being a plus plus pitch for Ramirez. His third pitch is a curveball that definitely needs some work, which is the one knock on Ramirez right now.

The Yankees seem to be doing a good job utilizing their financial advantage in the international talent marketplace, unearthing gems such as Vizcaino, Ramirez, and Banuelos. Unless MLB institutes an international draft, this should be a source of talent for the Yankees for many years to come.