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Apparently baseball’s GM’s support the plan to expand the postseason (via Craig):

The general managers are all meeting in Florida this week and, as we’ve expected, one of the items on the agenda will be making a proposal to Commissioner Selig about expanding the first round of the playoffs with an additional wild card team. The news nugget here is that the GMs USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to all prefer that the first round of the playoffs, which would be between each league’s two wild card teams, either be a one-and-done elimination game or, at most, a best of three scenario.

This plan will have some consequences that I fear may be detrimental to the sport. As Craig notes, a 1 or 3 game series simply adds to the randomness of the postseason, and will often result in the better team going home. Relatedly, this system rewards mediocrity and will allow weak teams into the postseason. A perfect example of the ill effects of this idea can be found in the events at the end of the 2010 season.

If there had been an extra wild-card round in 2010, the AL might have been more exciting down the stretch. The Yankees and Rays likely would have been playing much harder so as to win the East and obtain a first round bye. On the other end, the 89 win Red Sox and 88 victory White Sox would have been locked in a battle for the second Wild card spot. Conversely, some of the drama may have been pulled from the NL race to the finish, as the Giants, Padres, and Braves would have all been guaranteed of at least a wild card berth.

The question that needs to be asked, of course, is whether we want those teams in the postseason. Why should the 95 win Yankees and 89 win Red Sox, with a clear gulf in talent between them, be put on equal footing in a wild card round? By the same token, does anyone really believe that the 2008 Yankees belonged in a postseason series with the 2008 Red Sox? The short nature of the series means that the highly inferior clubs would have a legitimate chance to advance. This plan diminishes the importance of the 162 game schedule, which is the feature that distinguishes baseball from other major sports.

A better plan would focus on tweaking the current system to make the wild card berth significantly less valuable than a division championship. One solution would be to give the team playing the wild card team an extra home game, with the wild card club getting only Game 3 in their building. This would make winning the division a priority, while serving to create a race for the best record in the league (and right to play the wild card team) as well.

Do you like the playoff expansion idea? Do you have an alternative?

I figure this is as good a time as any to make my return from hiatus.  Below are a few randomly optimistic thoughts about the Yankees’ chances in Game 6.

  • Phil Hughes should pitch better than he did in Game 2, when he was pounded for 7 runs on 10 hits in 4 innings.  He will be on normal rest for Game 6 (as opposed to the week off he had after clinching the series against Minnesota), which could help him with the feel of his secondary offerings and command.  He has been a great road pitcher this season, and will look to redeem himself in Texas.
  • I like Robinson Cano hitting in the 3-hole after the injury to Teixeira.  Cano has been by far the Yankees’ best hitter in this series (and the entire season, in fact), and by hitting higher in the lineup, he will get more at-bats.  In addition, hitting Cano in front of A-Rod will likely mean that pitchers are less likely to pitch around him (even though Alex is struggling, he still commands respect from opposing pitchers) than he would hitting in front of Nick Swisher.
  • I know this sounds like an awful thing to say, but I wonder if the Teixeira injury could be addition by subtraction for the Yankees.  While it obviously hurts to lose a Gold Glove winning 1st baseman and #3 hitter, Tex has looked lost at the plate in this series, going 0 for 14 and struggling to even get the ball out of the infield.  Lance Berkman, Teixeira’s replacement, has a hit in every postseason game.  Against the righty Colby Lewis, he will be put in a position to succeed, as he is much better from the left side.
  • If both starters are pulled early, I think the Yankees can win the battle of the bullpens.  Joe Girardi has the luxury of using CC Sabathia (as mentioned in Moshe’s last post) along with a rested David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain on top of the game 5 duo of Kerry Wood and Mariano Rivera.  With Mariano likely prepared to pitch 2 innings if necessary, Girardi doesn’t have to worry about pulling a reliever who looks ineffective early.  The likes of Mitre and Mosley (the modern-day M&M boys) will be nowhere to be found.  Texas’s bullpen has some good arms, but I don’t think it is as deep.  I highly doubt Neftali Feliz gets used for more than a 1-inning save, which works in New York’s favor.
  • Nelson Cruz was pulled from Game 5 with a tight hamstring (though he will play tomorrow night).  If he is not 100% in Game 6, the Yankees catch a big break.  Cruz has gotten some big hits off of Yankee pitching this season, and he is another intimidating hitter in the middle of the Texas lineup.  If he’s hurting, he may not be as effective at the plate.  Additionally, he has been a solid defensive presence in the outfield this series, and if his hamstring slows him down even just a little bit, the Yankees could see a few more hits drop in.  Plus, Cruz playing keeps David Murphy, who has killed the Yankees of late, out of the game.

Any other thoughts?  Why are you optimistic (or pessimistic) about Game 6?  Obviously, the intimidating presence of Cliff Lee looms over Game 7, but the Yankees have to get there first.

With the Rays and Rangers headed for a sure to be thrilling Game 5 in their ALDS series, I wanted to get a vibe for who our readers are rooting for in that series. Both teams would provide a strong matchup for the Yankees, but each has different stengths and weaknesses that could create unique issues for the Yankees. As I see it, these are some very rudimentary reasons that we might want/not want to face each team (Once the opponent is known, Stephen will dig a lot deeper into that team in his multi-part preview).:

Texas: Texas has struggled a bit against lefties this season, and as Steve showed us this morning, it would be feasible for the Yankees to throw lefties in 5 of 7 starts in the series. On the other hand, they do have some righty hitters, particularly Nelson Cruz, who can carry them if their key lefties have been neutralized. The Texas bullpen has looked a bit shaky in recent days, and the Yankees have not found Neftali Feliz impossible to hit. As for the Texas rotation, Cliff Lee and CJ Wilson provide a daunting lefthanded duo, and make me think that TB might be the easier matchup. Finally, from a novelty point of view, it might be fun to see the Yankees play a young team from another division rather than a club that the Yanks played 18 times during the regular season.

TB: Tampa has fairly even platoon splits, but with Evan Longoria a bit banged up, they might be susceptible to lefthanded pitching as well. The back of their bullpen does not scare me, but the front end of Soriano and Benoit are as good as it gets among remaining playoff teams. The TB rotation has some question marks, and with David Price not slated to go until Game 3, the Yankees would likely have a chance to get a quick start in the series against James Shields and Matt Garza (who they usually hit fairly well). Finally, the rivalry with Tampa really took a step forward this season, and an epic ALCS would be a great continuation of a fun regular season race.

I lean very slightly towards prefering Tampa, mostly because of the respective rotations and because I have felt all season that these two clubs were destined for an unforgettable 7 game ALCS. Larry at Yankeeist has already chimed in on the issue, prefering to see Texas win Game 5.

Which team would you prefer to see?

When writers such as the media pundits in the Daily News and New York Post used to bemoan late MLB playoff starting times, I would roll my eyes at their complaints. They came off as crotchety old men who were out of touch with the bulk of the fanbase. Baseball games starting in prime time seemed natural to me, and if they ended late at night, so be it. Now, as these playoffs begin and I see another 3 games starting after 8PM slated for this ALDS, I cringe and wonder whether those writers were right after all.

I am a night owl, and will frequently be up until 1 or 2 am on a weeknight. Yet, with school and 3 kids exhausting me during the day and the kids certain to wake me up early the next morning, I find myself tiring much earlier than I have in the past. I was thrilled to see last night’s 6pm game on the schedule, and it was in fact a much better experience than the 8:37 start from the night before. For the first time, I could envision a situation 5, maybe 10, years down the road where I would actually be forced to go to sleep in middle of a playoff game so that I could function as an employee, husband, and father the next day. I am starting to gain an understanding of what those writers were complaining about, and I can only imagine that there are others who have a similar problem. Another issue is that later games are preventing children from watching playoff games. Essentially, MLB has carved out a playoff audience from ages 15-40 or so, and is limiting itself to partial game viewers in other age brackets.

I wanted to ask whether I am just being a whiny fool here, or whether others feel that this is a legitimate problem. Do you think MLB should have earlier start times for East Coast playoff games? Or are you just fine with the way things are?

11 wins to defend that title.

11 wins to once again reach the pinnacle of the baseball world.

One down, 10 to go.

The march to championship #28 continues tonight.

Yankees Lineup

Jeter SS
Granderson CF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Swisher RF
Posada C
Berkman DH
Gardner LF

Pettitte P

Twins Lineup

Span CF
Hudson 2B
Mauer C
Young LF
Thome DH
Cuddyer 1B
Kubel RF
Valencia 3B
Hardy SS

Pavano P

11 wins to defend that title.

11 wins to once again reach the pinnacle of the baseball world.

The march to championship #28 starts tonight.

Yankees Lineup

Jeter SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Thames DH
Posada C
Granderson CF
Gardner LF

Sabathia P

Twins Lineup

Span CF
Hudson 2B
Mauer C
Young LF
Thome DH
Cuddyer 1B
Kubel RF
Valencia 3B
Hardy SS

Liriano P

Now that the Yankees have clinched a spot in the postseason, it is once again safe to discuss the postseason roster. I last did so at the end of August, and provided the following list of players I believe to be locks:

Position Players (12)
Jorge Posada
Francisco Cervelli
Mark Teixeira
Lance Berkman
Robinson Cano
Derek Jeter
Alex Rodriguez
Brett Gardner
Curtis Granderson
Nick Swisher
Marcus Thames
Austin Kearns

Pitchers (8)
CC Sabathia
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Mariano Rivera
Joba Chamberlain
David Robertson
Boone Logan
Kerry Wood

I think Austin Kearns has lost his lock status due to some poor play and better performance from Lance Berkman, but I would still be surprised if he was not on the roster, as he would provide some pop off the bench that could be useful in a long game.

My final 5 looked like this:

Ramiro Pena
Chad Moeller
AJ Burnett
Ivan Nova
Damaso Marte

I think Burnett is a lock at this point due to a decent September and Joe Girardi’s faith in him, so that leaves 4 spots, with Eduardo Nunez, Javier Vazquez, Chad Gaudin, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, Greg Golson, and Royce Ring joining the players listed above as options. Marte is obviously out due to injury, so that leaves 10 players for 4 slots.

To complete the bullpen, I think the Yankees will take Ivan Nova and Javier Vazquez. Nova has performed well his first time through the batting order in most starts, and has the kind of stuff that should translate well to short relief. Vazquez wins the last spot by default, although I would not be shocked if Gaudin, Moseley, or Mitre stole that long relief role if Javy gets smacked around tonight. Additionally, with the Twins being susceptible to lefties, I think Royce Ring will at least get some fleeting consideration from Joe Girardi.

For the final two position players, I think Eduardo Nunez and Greg Golson will be the choices. Moeller is out because I do not think AJ Burnett will get an ALDS start, thereby leaving Frankie Cervelli on the bench and obviating the need for a third catcher. As for Nunez, he seems to have surpassed Pena as the Yankees primary utility guy over the last few weeks. While they may favor Pena’s defense, they seem to prefer Nunez’ bat and baserunning, which should result in Nunez making the roster. Golson’s ability to play the outfield makes him the final choice, with his speed on the bases being an additional factor in his favor.

This makes the final 5:

AJ Burnett
Javier Vazquez
Ivan Nova
Eduardo Nunez
Greg Golson

What would your roster look like?

Managerial decisions heading into October are often predicated on a player’s splits from that year, so I wanted to do a post on some of the more notable splits of prominent Yankees.  Should help shed some light on why Girardi will go in one direction or another, and recap how players have performed in situational spots this year.

Phil Hughes-Home/Away troubles have been well documented. ERA goes from 4.84 at home to 3.52 on the road, much of the Yankee stadium woes the result of HRs. Hasn’t faced the Twins all that much, logging 7.1 career innings in 3 appearances (1 start). Phil should start on the road, but with the Yanks headed for a WC berth, that would make him the Game 2 starter (CC goes 1 and 5). If healthy Andy will likely get the call for Game 2, but it will be interesting to see how Girardi plays this one. I always want a player, especially a young player, put in the best spot to be successful. I trust Andy at home or away, Phil not so much. May also be a good idea to break up the Lefties.

Alex Rodriguez-Hasn’t hit Lefties this year (VS. LEFT: .211 / .717 VS. RIGHT: .297 / .899) for whatever reason. Call me crazy, but I don’t think they’ll platoon him. Getting hot at the right time, heading into the playoffs he’s posting a line of .333/.410/.682 (1.092 OPS) with 7 HRs for the month of September.

Kerry Wood-As good as Granderson has been lately, Wood is still the best deal Cashman has made since last year for me. Completely stabilized a shaky bullpen and made Joba’s woes an afterthought. Has posted this line-

I      Split W L  W-L%  ERA  G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF  WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
    2nd Half 2 0 1.000 0.37 22  0  1  0   0  0 24.1 13  1  1  1 14   1 28   1  0  2 99 1.110 10.4  2.00

since becoming a Yankee. Expect to see him as the go-to guy in big spots the playoffs.

Curtis Granderson-Lefty/Righty splits still an issue (vs. Left: .236 / .634 vs. Right: .258 / .870) But he’s turned into the true Yankee Stadium hitter (Home: .261 / .842 Away: .240 / .740) we all hoped he’d be when they traded for him this off season. Another player getting hot at the right time, posting a line of .291/.385/.646 (1.031 OPS) in September.

AJ Burnett-Nothing to see here. Equally bad splits all around (vs. LEFT: .278 / .796 vs. RIGHT: .285 / .819 Home: .280 / .809 and Away: .283 / .805). The riddle remains unsolved, and at 33 I’d just give up and accept him. Or even better replace him, but that’s a topic for the off season.

Joba Chamberlain-Another edition from the ‘who cares’ file. Like AJ, throws 96+ and all too often has zero command of the fastball. Mistakes get hit way too hard to trust him with anything but a clean inning. First two batters beat him like a rented mule, which is especially a problem when you’re a reliever. Was a subpar starter last year and has been worse as a reliever this year. We can talk peripherals all we want, he’s been bad for 2 years now.

Francisco Cervelli-Has always hit Lefties (vs. LEFT: .300 / .816) better than Righties (vs. RIGHT: .239 / .594). Heated up of late, since August 27 he’s hitting .400 with 9 walks and 4 strikeouts in 30 at-bats. You know he’ll catch AJ, and will probably start behind the plate when Liriano or Lee pitches.

Derek Jeter-Down year has been well documented. Platoon splits have been weak (vs. LEFT: .315 / .869 vs. RIGHT: .245 / .632) along with everything else this year. I’m not overly swayed by his recent hot streak, which may just be a correction coming off a deep slump. I’ll need to see more before thinking he’s back to being his former self.

Ivan Nova-Yesterday’s quick exit does nothing to change my thinking on Nova. He’s followed a familiar pattern where he dominates the first few times through the order, then gets knocked around in the middle innings. Here’s his Times Facing Opponent splits from BR:

Split               G PA AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st PA in G as SP   7 63 56  1 11  1  0  1  0  0  6 13  2.17 .196 .286 .268  .554 15   0   1  0  0   0   0  .238    58    60
2nd PA in G as SP   7 63 61 10 15  4  0  3  0  0  1  9  9.00 .246 .254 .459  .713 28   1   0  0  1   0   0  .240    98    88
3rd PA in G as SP   7 32 25  6 10  2  0  0  0  0  7  2  0.29 .400 .531 .480 1.011 12   1   0  0  0   2   0  .435   189   169
1st PA in G as RP   2 12 12  0  4  0  0  0  0  0  0        1 .333 .333 .333  .667  4   1   0  0  0   0   0  .364    90    8

Perfect choice for a post season bullpen role. Like him so much I’d go 10 pitchers and carry the extra bat.

Andy Pettitte-Just gets better with age. Destroyed Lefties as usual (vs. Left: .189 / .484 vs. Right: .272 / .766) and has been good both home and away (Home: .260 / .728 Away: .235 / .637). Very tempted to give Andy the pivotal Game 3 start at home and let Hughes pitch on the road in Game 2.

There was plenty of news coming out of the Yankees camp last night surrounding rotation shifts.  As Chad Jennings of LoHud noted this morning, we have a pretty good guess of how the rotation shakes out for the remainder of the year:

Saturday, September 25 v. BOS: Ivan Nova

Sunday, September 26 v. BOS: Dustin Moseley (formerly Phil Hughes)

Monday, September 27 @ TOR: AJ Burnett (normal rest)

Tuesday, September 28 @ TOR: not announced (formerly Sabathia)

Wednesday, September 29 @ TOR: Phil Hughes (7 days rest)

Thursday, September 30: off day

Friday, October 1 @ BOS: CC Sabathia (7 days rest)

Saturday, October 2 @BOS: either AJ Burnett or Andy Pettitte

Sunday, October 3 @ BOS: either AJ Burnett or Andy Pettitte

If Burnett pitches on Saturday, he will be on normal rest.  Pitching on Sunday gives him an extra day, which he doesn’t particularly need given his recent rain-shortened outings.  If Pettitte goes on Saturday, he’ll be on seven days rest.  If he’s on Sunday, he’s on eight days rest. Obviously Pettitte doesn’t need extra rest.  He needs to be stretched out more than he needs to be rested, so pitching him on Wednesday would be the normal course of action.  But the goal is to line him up for the playoffs, and so he’ll pitch on Saturday or Sunday.  As Jennings notes, and he really does a good job covering the permutations, whether Burnett or Pettitte go on Saturday or Sunday depends entirely on how they want the ALDS rotation to shake out.  There are several possible options that I will detail after the jump.
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Today the Yankees enjoy an off-day and travel to Baltimore to prepare for their series against the Orioles.  As the team gets closer to October, though, one of the more interesting questions the team will have to face is shuffling their rotation for the playoffs.  If every pitcher goes on regular rest with a rotation of Sabathia-Pettitte-Nova-Hughes-Burnett (the current order), here is how the rotation would play out for the remainder of the year and into the ALDS:

current rotation

The obvious problem with this is CC Sabathia.  As it stands, Sabathia’s last scheduled start would be Tuesday, 9/28, meaning he wouldn’t pitch for an entire week before coming back for Wednesday’s Game 1 of the ALDS.  The team could take advantage of the off day on Thursday, 9/30 and start him on Sunday the 3rd on normal rest, but this would mean that he wouldn’t be available for Game 1 of the ALDS and would have to pitch on short rest for Game 2.

Instead, the goal should be for Sabathia to start on Friday, October 3rd, thereby enabling him to start on regular rest for the ALDS.  This is what the Yankees opted to do last year, pushing him back a few times in the regular season and then starting him on regular rest in the postseason.  In order to achieve this goal, the team will have to figure out a way to shuffle the rotation and give Sabathia extra days off in the coming weeks.  Thanks to Dustin Moseley and Javier Vazquez, expanded rosters and a gigantic lead in the Wild Card race, this is eminently feasible.

First, let’s assume the rotation stays as is over the next five games: Burnett, Sabathia and Pettitte all start on normal rest in Baltimore, and Nova and Hughes pitch on Monday and Tuesday of next week.  AJ Burnett would be lined up to pitch the following day, and let’s assume that he does that as the team tries to get him back in the groove.

What the club could then do is have Dustin Moseley start Thursday, 9/23 instead of CC Sabathia, thereby bumping Sabathia and Pettitte to the Friday and Saturday games against Boston and giving them one extra day of rest apiece.  Nova could take his next turn in the rotation on Sunday, pitching on one extra day of rest as well and bumping Hughes back a day to Monday, the 27th.  The modified 6-man rotation could then continue on Tuesday and Wednesday with Burnett and Moseley both pitching on an extra day’s rest.  The team would then go into the final series of the season against Boston after an off-day on Thursday with Sabathia and Pettitte scheduled to go Friday and Saturday on 2 days extra rest apiece.

At this point, the club will probably tip its’ hand as to the identity of the Game 3 starter, because it makes sense for the Game 3 starter to start the final game of the regular season for scheduling purposes. If it’s Burnett, then he could pitch on regular rest on Sunday and 5 days’ rest in Game 3.  If it’s Hughes, then he could pitch on 5 days’ rest on Sunday and 5 days’ rest in Game 3.  Here is what this rotation would look like:

modified 1

There’s another variation of this plan to give Hughes even more rest than he is currently getting. On Monday the 27th, the team could start AJ on regular rest, have Moseley start the Tuesday game on regular rest, and pitch Hughes on Wednesday the 29th on regular rest.  The rest of the plan would stay intact, with CC and Pettitte throwing on Friday and Saturday with two extra days of rest, and AJ finishing up the regular season on Sunday on regular rest.  Essentially, this plan would exchange an extra day of rest for Burnett and Moseley for two extra days for Hughes.  It would also assume that AJ is the Game 3 starter, or that the Yankees will want Hughes to start Game 3 on nine days rest, which seems unlikely.  Here is what this schedule would look like:

modified 2

The interesting thing to watch will be how the team tries to line up Pettitte and Sabathia to pitch on the final weekend of the regular season.  Two things seem clear: they will want to ensure that the important starters get the extra rest they need, and they will probably want Sabathia and Pettitte starting the playoffs on regular rest.  The most likely way to accomplish this is to use Moseley or Vazquez, creating a modified 6-man rotation down the stretch.  It will be a tricky situation, because they’ll need to manage Hughes’ innings limit as well.  There are a lot of permutations possible, so feel free to come up with your own plan in the comments below.

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