Here are the lineups, via LoHud:
YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Nick Swisher RF
Robinson Cano 2B
Melky Cabrera CF
Jose Molina CPitching: RHP A.J. Burnett (0-0, 1.50 ERA)
ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Kendry Morales 1B
Juan Rivera LF
Maicer Izturis 2B
Mike Napoli C
Erick Aybar SSPitching: LHP Joe Saunders (0-0, 0.00)
TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX
If the game starts on time, then they’ll do everything in their power to make sure it finishes at some point tonight (tonight is relative here, as the game could go beyond 12 am if there’s a rain delay). Either way, I don’t think they’ll postpone, regardless of the rain. Too bad it wasn’t a day game. The weather was fine earlier.
Here are Burnett’s numbers against the Angels, lifetime.
Here are Saunders’ numbers against the Yankees, lifetime.
I’ll call an A-Rod homer in advance. Over 14 AB’s, Alex is hitting .500/.533/1.071 against Saunders, with 2 HR, 2 2B, and 4 RBI. This is a good matchup for him. In fact, I expect to see Kate Hudson shown at least twice.
Here’s a quick starting pitcher breakdown:
The gray highlights indicate the perceived advantage. This advantage is based on the pitcher’s regular season numbers, although I have factored in oppositional history, as well, albeit marginally. Therefore, CC is better than Lackey (he can dominate any lineup, regardless of his season numbers against LA), Burnett is better than Saunders, Weaver is better than Pettitte though both have struggled against their respective opponents, and, if the Yankees are forced to trot out Chad Gaudin or Joba Chamberlain in Game 4, then Scott Kazmir would definitely have the advantage in that particular outing (note—the Gaudin and Kazmir numbers featured above are based solely on the innings with their current teams).
If Saunders has a good game in him, which we know he does, then the series will be pretty even. The Yankees’ starters have better stuff and strike out more opponents, but the Angels walk fewer hitters. Plus, they have a better defense behind them. If the Yankees can start CC on 3 days rest for game 4, it will likely tip the series in their favor. That, of course, is contingent upon the weather.
Everyone does their position-by-position breakdown. Look around the internet and you can find dozens. I never understood why people choose to break a lineup down by defensive position. Defense is important, but putting player’s abilities in context is more important. Alex Rodriguez isn’t really supposed to compare to Chone Figgins, he compares more to the #4 hitter in the lineup.
So, how do the team’s hitters match up?
Leadoff – Derek Jeter vs. Chone Figgins
Both players can steal bases, and both players get on base exceptionally well. Derek Jeter hit .334/.406/.465 in 2009, while Figgins hit .298/.395/.393. Jeter showed more power than his rival, and therefore has a clear edge in effectiveness. While Figgins is faster, the difference between him and Jeter is negligible.
Edge: Yankees (1-0-0)
Two-Hole: Johnny Damon vs. Bobby Abreu
Both outfielders are watching their careers wind down. Bobby Abreu has spent his the twilight of his career hitting for much less power than he used to, but still showing his ability to draw walks. Johnny Damon has actually seen a dramatic increase in power, mostly at the expense of defense. Abreu hit .293/.390/.435 this season, while Damon hit .282/.365/.489.
I think that Bobby Abreu is terribly overrated by the media. He is a very good baseball player, but his drastic decline in power is starting to hurt his value. Damon is provides both power and an ability to avoid outs, but makes a few more outs. To me, its a tie.
Edge: Tie (1-0-1)
Three Spot: Mark Teixeira vs. Torri Hunter
Torri Hunter is a fine baseball player. He had a career year, hitting .299/.366/.508, and is making the Yankees regret not signing him. Regardless, this one is easy:
Edge: Yankees (2-0-1)
Cleanup: Vlad Guerrero vs. Alex Rodriguez
This would have been an epic match up a few years ago. Both are going to the hall of fame. One is in the twilight of his career. Fortunately for us, that one is not Alex Rodriguez. Arod is my pick for ALCS MVP.
Edge: Yankees (3-0-1)
Fifth: Hideki Matsui vs. Kendry Morales
Morales finally had the breakout year that we were all waiting for. He was supposed to be a major source of power out of Cuba, but that took some time to adjust. Matsui had an excellent season, hitting .294/.367/.509, but Morales best him with home runs, hitting .306/.355/.569. Really, Morales should be in Guerrero’s spot. Alex Rodriguez would have an edge over Morales, and Matsui over Guerrero.
Edge: Angels (3-1-1)
Sixth: Jorge Posada vs. Juan Rivera
Juan Rivera has shown a nice rebound since his terrible injury. The former Yankee hit .287/.333/.478. But Posada easily bested him, hitting .285/.363/522. This one isn’t even close.
Edge: Yankees (4-1-1)
Seven: Robinson Cano vs. Maicer Izturis / Howie Kendrick
Izturis, a utility man who can play all over the diamond, had a career year. Howie Kendrick has a lot of talent. Neither come close to doing what Robinson Cano did this year. I think that Yankee fans underrate how good their 2nd baseman is. And how good their #7 hitter is for someone in that spot. Another huge win for the Yankees.
Edge: Yankees (5-1-1)
Eighth: Mike Napoli vs. Nick Swisher
Swisher and Napoli are really very similar hitters. They both swing for the fences, but strike out often. Fortunately for the Yankees, Swisher not only hit more out of the park, but he took twice as many walks as Napoli. Again, the Yankees have an underrated asset hitting way back at 8th in their lineup, and stashed away in right field. He’s a damned good baseball player, and is a big part of the Yankee depth.
Edge: Yankees (6-1-1)
Second Leadoff: Melky Cabrera vs. Erick Aybar
I fully expected six months ago for Melky to be out of the Yankee organization and Brett Gardner to be in this spot. While Gardner had a good rookie season, Cabrera really came in to his own in 2009. Gone are the long slumps and booming hot streaks. He became a major league average hitter in almost every way, which is great for a center fielder and 9th hole batter
That said, the Angels win this one with Aybar. The shortstop hit .314/.353/.423. He won’t be a 9th hitter for long.
Edge: Angels
Final score: Yankees have the big edge (6-2-1)
The Angels have a very good lineup that scored a lot of runs in 2009. That said, the Yankees have a historically deep lineup of power hitters that rivals some of the best of all time. So deep that they best the 2nd best in the league 6 of 9 times. Amazing.
Has anyone else gone crazy waiting for this series to begin? One more day…
Angels manger Mike Scioscia announced his playoff rotation today, and it’ll be John Lackey in Game 1, Joe Saunders in Game 2, Jered Weaver in Game 3, and Scott Kazmir in Game 4. While LA has opted for a 4-man rotation, the Yankees seem to be leaning towards a 3-man, which would pit Lackey against CC, Saunders against Burnett, Weaver against Pettitte, and Kazmir against CC (again).
From LEN we get word that the Twins will carry 12 pitchers on their postseason roster, with the following 8 relievers making the cut:
Closer Joe Nathan and lefthanders Francisco Liriano, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares and righthanders Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Bobby Keppel.
Let’s run through these names so that you know what to expect come the late innings in the ALDS.
The Lefties: голова болит секс It is important to note that most of the lefties on the Yankees roster have no problem with hitting against lefty pitching. That being said, I am sure Ron Gardenhire will play matchups regardless of that fact, so let’s break it down.
Jose Mijares has been used as the primary lefty specialist by the Twins, with lefties hitting .155/.228/.252 against him. Righties have an OPS of .791 against him, so I doubt we see him face anything but lefties and possibly some switch hitters. I could see him being used against Johnny Damon in a big spot, with the Twins then being forced to decide whether to let him pitch to Teixeira or not. His xFIP is 4.63, which suggests that his low 2.34 ERA is a product of luck.
Ron Mahay was having an awful year in KC before coming to Minny and putting together a solid run over 9 innings of work. However, at this point he is a specialist who is not great against lefties (.743 OPS) and awful against righties (1.005). He has allowed 10 homers on the season, and is averaging almost 4 walks per 9 innings. Imagine Phil Coke without the really low WHIP, allowing plenty of homers but not compensating by getting very many outs. As with Mijares, he will likely be used as a LOOGY, which illustrates why the Twins need to take 12 pitchers.
Francisco Liriano has had an awful year, and his numbers are not significantly better as a reliever than they were as a starter. He is an immense talent, but is unlikely to see important moments in this series. He will be used as a long man or possibly for a lefty or two, and will likely be the mop up guy in the event of a blowout.
The Righties:
Matt Guerrier is the set up man, although the acquisition of Jon Rauch has muddied the waters a bit. Guerrier has actually been better against lefties (.525 OPS) than righties (.645), but he is going to be used for full innings and is unlikely to be pulled for a specialist in a big spot. He does not walk very many hitters (less than 2 per 9), keeps home runs down, and does not allow much in the way of baserunners (.97 WHIP). His only flaw is a low K rate (5.5 K/9), which may hurt him against a Yankee club that generally handles non-power pitchers.
Jon Rauch has had a very solid career since moving to the bullpen, and 2009 was no exception. He leads the Twins in strand rate (91.4%), and is equally solid against lefties and righties. Like Guerrier, he does not allow very many home runs, but he walks more hitters and allows more hits, making him the second best righty in the pen outside of the closer. Rauch, Guerrier, and Mijares constitute the bridge to closer Joe Nathan, and they make for a pretty solid late inning combination.
Jesse Crain has seen his numbers drop precipitously since his excellent rookie campaign in 2004, to the point where he is currently a below average pitcher. He walks too many batters (4.7 per 9) and gets destroyed by lefties. That being said, his numbers against righties are very good (.220/.291/.280), meaning he can be used together with the LOOGY’s to piece together an inning or so.
Bob Keppel, last night’s winning pitcher, is the last man out of the pen for Ron Gardenhire. He walks too many hitters, is equally mediocre against lefties and righties, and does not strike anybody out. If he is the game, it probably means the game is not very close.
The Closer:
Joe Nathan is about as close to Mariano Rivera as a pitcher can get, with his numbers since arriving in Minnesota rivaling those of the great Mo. Steve touched on this in the post breaking down the starters, and a look at the numbers he posted illustrates how close a comparison it really is. The one caveat is that the Yankees have fared pretty decently against Nathan, with the second highest OPS (.715) against Nathan of all AL Teams. If the Twins reach the 9th inning with a lead, the Yankees will have their work cut out for them.
In sum, the Twins have a good bullpen highlighted by a stellar closer and very good set up man. They also have a number of solid options to use in matching up, although most of the Yankee hitters do not have extreme splits to take advantage of. Like the rest of the Twins team, this facet of their club is good but not great.
Twins 6 Tigers 5 (12). 12 innings?? Are you kidding me? The Twins have completely blown out their bullpen. They have to jump on a plane to play the Yanks at 6:07pm? The Yankees don’t have to face Verlander or Porcello? Nor will they have to face the monster, Mornear? Are you kidding me? Could this have possibly worked out any better? In a year full of wild, walk-off wins for the Yankees, they first get a one game playoff to wear out their competitor, then get whipped cream on top with the game going to extra frames. Is the onlydanger at this point overconfidence?
Between these two teams who both specialize in wild finishes, we could have quite the exciting series (if the Yanks don’t flat-out pummel the Twinkies to death). The Twins come in on quite the hot streak, which may or may not have some carryover to the playoffs. The last three weeks have seen Minnesota make up ground in gulps, culminating in an unlikely Alexi Casilla walk-off single to secure the right to face the top team in baseball this year. The Twins used an astonishing eight pitchers on the night, with their closer, Joe Nathan, going 1 2/3: music to the Yankees’ ears, but it got the job done. Casilla actually entered the game as a pinch runner, only to become the hero. Other Minnesota heroes on the night include Jason Kubel and Orlando Cabrera, each with home runs, and of course, the inimitable Joe Mauer with 2 hits. The game almost ended in the tenth, when the teams exchanged runs. Casilla almost ended the game in that frame, but was thrown out at home plate trying to score on a sacrifice fly.
The Matchup:
So, do the Twins have any chance to keep their momentum going against the top team in baseball? Well, it’s baseball, so yes, but beyond that fact, there are not many factors favoring the team from the Twin cities.
- They have been winning games of late, not with stellar starting pitching, but by burning up their bullpen and scratching out runs late. This is not a great formula for success against the Yankees, who possess a bullpen every bit as good, but consederably better rested.
- They do not have an ace to go against the Yankee ace who could go twice if necessary.
- Not only is CC a big edge for the Bombers, the Twins’ strength is in their left-handed hitting (see Joe Mauer) which gives Sabathia yet another advantage.
- The Yankees went 7-0 in the regular season versus the Twins.
- The Twins have Carl Pavano – nuff said.
What do the Twins have on their side? Momentum, Mauer, and not much else. They have a really good pen, but it’s tough to keep going to that well the way they’ve been. We’ll be back tomorrow with a more detailed breakdown. Most of the stars seem to be aligned for the Yankees, but in a short series versus a hot team, you never know. Let’s go Yanks!
After an epic play-in game between the Twins and Tigers ended with the boys from Minnesota victorious, the Yankees will take on Joe Mauer and Co. in the ALDS. TYU will have plenty of coverage tomorrow, with a breakdown of the Twins roster, playoff predictions, and more, so stick around…….
The Yankees have officially announced their selection of ALDS “Series A,” which will begin tomorrow at 6:07 pm. The series will last 8 days and the starting rotation will feature CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, in that order (so Molina may be inline to start 2 postseason games, although I think Girardi would use Posada in Game 5).
In addition, Brian Bruney will not make the ALDS roster, which is good news for David Robertson, who made the cut and will be in the bullpen during the series.
The 2009 season has been one of redemption and rebirth for Alex Rodriguez. It seems like the tense, controversial A-Rod has been replaced by a man comfortable in his own skin. This change has led some writers, such as John Harper, to predict big things from A-Rod in the coming postseason:
But I’m buying stock in him this October because, for one thing, the odds are with him, but more importantly, I believe this is a different A-Rod from years past.
He’ll never be truly humble, let’s be honest, but I do believe the steroids revelation in the spring, combined with the ordeal of undergoing hip surgery, humbled him to some extent and humanized him in his own clubhouse, all for the better.
However, if Alex goes 2-15 in a ALDS defeat, Harper and other columnists will be certain to pen columns blaming A-Rod for yet another Yankee postseason failure. Alex himself understands that this will always be the case:
Rodriguez knows all eyes will fall on him again if the Yankees bow out early again.
“I hit cleanup for a reason; my team expects a lot out of me,” Rodriguez said. “We all understand there’s 25 players, and to win a championship and you need every guy. When you lose, people look around and numbers get dissected. I understand the score. That’s the way it is and that’s the way it should be.”
Alex serves as an easy target, allowing writers and fans to gloss over failures by such luminaries as Gary Sheffield, Randy Johnson, Jason Giambi, Jorge Posada, and even…gasp…Derek Jeter. However, as Joel Sherman notes, the 2009 Yankees are an incredibly deep team, and a first round exit should not be pinned entirely on Alex:
And I am here to say it is about time that we all stop using A-Rod as a convenient scapegoat should things go wrong for the Yankees in October. Let us assume that the highest-paid player in the history of baseball continues to gag in this Division Series. That still leaves the Yankees the highest-paid catcher, first baseman, shortstop, starting pitcher and closer in history to do something about it.
The $200 million-plus Yankees sold us hard this year that they were a tight-knit team from the bonding pool tournament in spring training to the champagne bath of late September. So — if necessary — it is time for this team to carry Rodriguez through a round of the playoffs.
There is more to this team than Alex Rodriguez, and they should be able to weather a poor performance on his part, should it come to that. Hopefully Alex has a huge postseason and quells those doubts about his fortitude forever. However, if he does not and the Yankees lose, it will not be entirely his fault. It is time to hold the entire club accountable. Alex Rodriguez has been the scapegoat for far too long.
Very interesting post, here, by Bill Wellman from Dugout Central utilizing four different metrics to attempt to predict which team is most likely to win the World Series. He uses Bullpen WPA, Isolated Power, League-Indexed FIP, and UZR, reasoning that the four most important factors for postseason success are the bullpen’s ability to hold a lead, overall pitching, fielding, and sheer power.
I found the process of choosing the metrics to be pretty fascinating. Which metrics are the most comprehensive, the most reliable and the most indicative of postseason success? The isolated power argument is the most interesting, for me. Wellman chooses Isolated Power because, “pitching is much better in the postseason, and because scoring runs with singles and walks usually requires three positive outcomes for a single run.” It’s a really intriguing line of speculation. I think there’s definitely something to his argument, but there have been a fair number of teams in the past who have won the Series by hitting singles, stealing bases, and scratching out runs (Twins, the 80’s/90’s Cardinals, the Angels, or by taking a ton of pitches, drawing walks and getting to the soft underbelly of the bullpen (late 90’s Yankees). Maybe speed factor and/ or OBP or some other plate discipline stat could be used to substitute for isolated power if the team grades out particularly highly in those areas. I think there are also many power hitters that are only mistake hitters and mistake hitters fare particularly badly against top pitchers. Maybe there’s a way that tendency could be counteracted.
It’s no surprise that, under Wellman’s equation, the Yanks grade out at number one, finishing first in Bullpen WPA and Isolated Power, though only being in the middle of the pack in FIP and surprisingly low in UZR (damn you Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera!!). It’s a fun debate, anyway. What metrics do you guys think are most important for predicting postseason success? Do you like Wellman’s formula? What would you add or subtract?
