Greetings to all those readers who still have power (I don’t; I’m writing this from the library). In keeping with some of my last posts, I’m going to throw a small bit of limelight onto some players outside the Yankee scope of things. I’ve covered the NL West and NL Central, so now I’ll turn my attention to a division a bit closer to home, the NL East.

There are two players we should watch out for, one on each side of the ball, in Philadelphia. The first is Jayson Werth, whom I’ve recently discussed. Werth is in the final year of his contract and will likely be looking for a big pay day post 2010. Werth’s posted three straight years of 120+ OPS+ marks, but is on the wrong side of thirty. We’ll have to watch this year to see if his late blooming continues or if he declines a bit.

On the mound, there’s one of my favorite players in baseball: Cole Hamels. 2009 was an odd year for Cole. He started just one fewer game, 32, than he did in 2008. His peripherals were almost all exactly the same as 2008. However, his ERA jumped from a stellar 3.09 to 4.32. The only thing I can see is that more hits started falling. His BABIP jumped from .270 to .325 (BAA went from .231 to .274) so either he was giving up harder contact or the hits just fell. According to StatCorner’s tRA+, Cole was still solid at 122 (same scale as ERA+) so it would appear Hamels was not giving up much hard contact. I think 2010 will be a bounce back year for him in a big way.

Florida’s Ricky Nolasco is another player similar to Hamels. Despite similar peripherals to his 2008 season, Nolasco struggled in 2009. The first two months of the season (.895 and 1.095 OPS against marks) basically sunk Ricky’s season. His 5.01 ERA is ugly to look at, but almost everything else was just as good as that number was bad. He struck out 9.5 (6th in the NL) batters per nine innings while only walking 2.1 (10th in the NL). His K/BB was a ridiculous 4.43 (third in the NL). Like Hamels, I expect Nolasco’s ERA to catch up to his outstanding peripherals.

For the Braves, I’m going the sentimental route: Melky Cabrera (the non-sentimental route is uber-prospect Jason Heyward). We all know Melky’s history, so I won’t rehash it. It will be interesting to see if a move to the “lesser” league will help Melky reach the potential that seems to have escaped him in his Yankee career. Maybe I’m not holding my breath for it to happen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Melky turned into a better-than-decent regular with the Braves.

There really isn’t much to watch in Queens is there? Carlos Beltran will miss time, as will Jose Reyes. The only constant seems to be Johan Santana who’s a bit of a question mark after elbow surgery (but, really, we all know he’ll be just fine). The only player to watch here is David Wright. Wright didn’t have a bad season, but his 123 OPS+ was the lowest since his first time in the bigs (2004, 118). His power dropped off like crazy; he went from a .534 SLG to a .447; he hit only 10 homers (33 in ‘08); his IsoP dipped from a robust .232 to a measly .140. Was this all from the new Citi Field? Not exactly. His power numbers on the road, .458 SLG, .144 IsoP, were not strong either. We’ll have to watch closely if 2009 was an aberration (likely) or if it’s the beginning of a downward trend in power for the Mets’ man at the hot corner.

As there with the Mets, there is little to look at in Washington. Stephen Strasburg is on the way, so that will be a beacon of hope for the struggling Nats. Instead of him, though, I’m going to focus on third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. After three years of just-above-average production at the plate, Zimmerman broke out in 2009, posting a 133 OPS+ and belting 33 home runs. Those are star numbers. We’ll have to watch closely to see if Zimmerman continues down this path. I’ve got a good feeling that he will, and in time, the Nationals will have something to look forward to.

CC Sabathia serves as an organic counter-argument to the notion that a three-man rotation, reliant upon four possible short-rest performances from its three starters, does not work in the World Series. In Game 1 against the Phillies, Sabathia pitched well and, in Game 4, to everyone’s surprise (well, not really), he also pitched well. Basically, despite performing on short-rest, Sabathia pitched as he normally does, rewarding Joe Girardi’s confidence in an abbreviated rotation.

However, thanks to A.J. Burnett’s memorable Game 5 implosion (6 ER over 2 IP), the three-man rotation, which seemed like a good idea after Sabathia’s outing, has suddenly become a bleak proposition. Pitchers are often billed as creatures of habit, therefore, to break that habit’s particulars and start a pitcher on short-rest seems like an outwardly destructive decision. Yet, I ask, in the end, isn’t effective pitching the simple result, not necessarily of an extra day’s rest, but of individual execution, as CC Sabathia demonstrated in Game 4 (and, as he had done during the ALCS)? If all starters are doomed to fail on short-rest, then how, exactly, did Sabathia buck a fixed trend and perform so admirably?

Those who disagree with the three-man plan will argue that Sabathia is an altogether different animal. With a massive 290 lb. frame, he is, according to them, built for extra work on short-rest. He is nothing like the unpredictable arm of A.J. Burnett or the aged and often fatigued arm of Andy Pettitte. To the dejected detractors of the three-man rotation, Sabathia’s body is an outlier that explains everything. However, when you truly reflect upon that notion, that Sabathia’s buxom body is somehow behind his short-rested success, you quickly come to the realization that such an argument is entirely nonsensical. Sabathia pushes the 300 lb. envelope. In essence, he defies the logic of physicality with his remarkable endurance. He shouldn’t be as good as he is on short-rest (both Burnett and Pettitte appear to be in better shape), however, he is and will likely be that good in a potential Game 7. Now, why is that the case?

In one word—execution, plain and simple. Pitchers either execute or they don’t. A.J. Burnett simply failed to execute in Game 5. It was something we have seen him do (or not do) throughout the year. He wasn’t the unfortunate victim of rest deprivation. If Andy Pettitte pitches well tonight, or if he pulls a Kevin Brown, it will be because of pitch execution. Ultimately, an extra day of rest will have little do with it.

Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

It is officially confirmed. Tomorrow, at Yankee Stadium, Andy Pettitte will start Game 6 on short-rest. In his career, Pettitte has started 14 games on 3 days of rest, winning only 4 of those starts (6 losses). During those 86 2/3 innings, which is a fairly “substantial” sample, Pettitte had a 4.15 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He held opponents to a .266/.345/.387 line, striking out 69 while walking 38.

Pettitte last started on 3 days of rest in 2006, when he was 35-years old. However, Ed Price (FanHouse) reminds us that Pettitte has not started on 3 days of rest after throwing 100 or more pitches since July 19, 2001, when he was 29. He gave up 7 ER over 4 innings in that start against Detroit. One wonders if any of these numbers actually mean anything, though, given the unpredictable nature of this particular situation (as compared to the others).

From Ken Rosenthal (FOX Sports):

For Alex Rodriguez, the adjustment was simple — swing at strikes, the way he did in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

For Nick Swisher, the change was far more dramatic — stunning, in fact, considering that it came in the middle of the World Series.

Swisher, benched in Game 2, completely overhauled his stance for Game 3, spreading his legs far apart in the batter’s box.

So much for his 4-for-35 slump in the postseason.

Swisher went 2-for-4 in the Yankees’ 8-5 victory, hitting a double to start a three-run rally in the fifth inning and a solo home run in the sixth.

Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long said that Swisher’s new stance is the first step of a major overhaul that will continue in the offseason.

Swisher, a switch-hitter, had tried the stance in the batting cage and in batting practice in recent days, taking approximately 300 swings from each side.

The idea, Long said, is “to eliminate movement, put yourself in better position to react to the baseball.

“Everyone knows he is a great fastball hitter,” Long continued. “They’ve been trying to off-speed him to death. When you have a lot of motion — he has a toe tap and also a long stride — pitches are tough to see, tough to react to.”

Here’s Swisher’s old stance, seen just a few days ago, in Game 1 of the World Series:

Now, here’s Swisher’s revamped stance, which made its debut last night, in Game 2, against Cole Hamels.

I really don’t think that Rosenthal described the change well in his article. Swisher had an extremely wide stance prior to the change, however, his stance was noticeably more open. In his “new” stance, Swisher continues keeping his legs far apart, yet now he’s much more closed off at the plate (the Yankees made a similar change to Robinson Cano’s stance over the winter). I watched a few videos and the toe tap timing mechanism is still there, except it’s not nearly as pronounced. Plus, Swisher has adopted a Gary Sheffield like bat waggle with the closed off stance, which he may have to work on eliminating over the off-season. As Kevin Long says, it’s a work-in-progress and, based on the way in which the new stance looks, I think the change could help Swisher hit for a higher average in 2010.

Lineups via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Jorge Posada C
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF
Andy Pettitte P

Pitching: LHP Andy Pettitte (2-0, 2.37 postseason ERA)

PHILLIES
Jimmy Rollins SS
Shane Victorino CF
Chase Utley 2B
Ryan Howard 1B
Jayson Werth RF
Raul Ibanez LF
Pedro Feliz 3B
Carlos Ruiz C
Cole Hamels P

Pitching: LHP Cole Hamels (1-1, 6.75 postseason ERA)

TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX

Here are Hamels’ numbers against the Yankees, via Baseball-Reference.

Here are Pettitte’s numbers against the Phillies, via Baseball-Reference.

I think Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter will both have big nights against Cole Hamels.

It’s raining pretty hard right (I’m basing this on what I see on TV). Hopefully, we’ll have baseball tonight.

Today, Joe Girardi announced that CC Sabathia will start Game 4 of the WS on short-rest.

Also, Nick Swisher is back in right field for Game 3.

Cole Hamels’ best pitch this year is, once again, his changeup. The pitch, which generally clocks in around 78-81 mph, on average, was thrown just over 30% of the time in 2009. It serves as Hamels’ main strikeout offering and, according to pitch value data, was 11.7 runs above average, the second best changeup value in the NL (only Tim Lincecum’s changeup was better). He’ll throw the changeup to right-handed hitters—low and away—as well as left-handed hitters—low and away—and, when facing righties, Hamels is not afraid to come inside with the pitch to induce a weak groundout. Therefore, while Hamels doesn’t have an overpowering fastball (90 mph, on average), his changeup is deceptive enough to help him strike out 7.81 batters per nine innings. Basically, expect to see a lot of fastballs—just under 60% of the time—and changeups, with the occasional curve mixed in.

So, Hamels’ changeup is good, that much is clear. However, who can we expect to have success against it?

Here are the Yankees’ season numbers against changeups, according to pitch type value data (runs +/- average).

Jorge Posada 6.7
Derek Jeter 4.9
Mark Teixeira 2.6
Melky Cabrera 1.4
Nick Swisher 1.1
Johnny Damon 1.1
Alex Rodriguez 0.8
Hideki Matsui 0.1
Robinson Cano -1.9

With the exception of Cano, everyone on the Yankees can hit a changeup, as they’re either average (e.g., Matsui, A-Rod) or above average (e.g., Posada, Jeter) against the pitch (and even Cano isn’t far off from average territory).

Do these numbers indicate that the Yankees will do well against Hamels’ changeup? Not necessarily, as these are season numbers that aren’t exactly predictive with regards to one outing against a specific pitcher. Hamels changeup is also one of the best in baseball, therefore, it’s problematic to assume that they’ll do well given the aforementioned value data (I’m also not sure as to how a pitcher’s left or right-handedness affects these numbers). However, what we can glean from these figures is that the Yankees, in general, can hit changeups, collectively. Based on pitch value data, they were actually the second best hitting team against changeups this season (the Blue Jays were first). They’re not like the Cardinals, for example, or the Royals, two teams that weren’t able to hit the changeup at all in 2009.

Hopefully, tonight, the Yankees will be able to show Cole Hamels just how good they are at hitting his favorite pitch.

Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Alex Rodriguez has 6 strikeouts, thus far, in the World Series. He’s performing like it’s 2006.

Here’s Tom Verducci’s (SI) take on A-Rod’s first two games of the series:

Those were some funky swings Alex Rodriguez took in Games 1 and 2 in the World Series, looking nothing like the compact, balanced strokes he took in the ALDS and ALCS. His swing was at times lengthened and at times became very defensive, more of swatting for the ball or feeling for it than taking a quick path to it. It’s almost as if he’s a shooter in basketball whose stroke gets tighter with each miss; he needs something to go down to restore confidence.In two games Rodriguez has swung at 23 pitches and put two balls in play: a grounder to third and a flyball to left field. He punched out three times in Game 1 and three times again in Game 2. Only one other player ever had back-to-back three-strikeout games in World Series history: Jim Lonborg. A pitcher. In 1967. It’s not the kind of World Series history Rodriguez had in mind. He waited his whole career to get to the World Series, and when he got here, he immediately became the first hitter, other than a pitcher with a .136 career average, to whiff three times in two straight World Series games.

To better understand the situation, here are A-Rod’s 8 at-bats (6 K, 8 outs) of the World Series, via Brooks Baseball.

Alex Rodriguez versus Cliff Lee, Game 1, 2nd inning, strikeout:

Based on the location of these pitches—up in the zone, middle of the plate—Alex must not have been seeing the ball well against Lee, or he was trying to be overly deliberate while at the plate. Lee threw him 4 pitches (1, 2, 3, 5) which should have been hit out of the park.

Alex Rodriguez versus Cliff Lee, Game 1, 4th inning, strikeout:

A-Rod’s patience is, for the most part, intact here, as he identifies 3 balls out of the zone. He chases pitches 1 and 2, though, and the first pitch (1) was particularly tough to hit since it was inside and low. Either could have been called strikes by the umpire, but maybe Alex should leave that up to the umpire rather than swing.

Alex Rodriguez versus Cliff Lee, Game 1, 7th inning, groundout:

A-Rod’s strike zone has expanded, inside. After laying off the first inside pitch, he should have laid off the second, as they were nearly identical. He fouled it off, instead, and when Lee came inside but caught a good amount of the plate, Alex simply missed it.

Alex Rodriguez versus Cliff Lee, Game 1, 9th inning, strikeout:

Lee leaves another pitch, pitch 2, in the middle of the plate and Alex merely fouls it off. Even the first pitch on the outside corner should have been hit since it’s right in his wheelhouse (perhaps he went up with the intention of taking the first pitch). The fourth pitch by Lee was pretty nasty, low, but Alex probably could have done some damage with it since it wasn’t inside on him (or far outside).

Alex Rodriguez versus Pedro Martinez, Game 2, 2nd inning, strikeout:

Against Pedro, A-Rod starts off the game with a good at-bat, however, again, 4 of these pitches (4, 5, 6, 9) were practically dead center. Alex should have hit all 4 of them, especially the 2 (4, 5) that are in the upper part of the zone. He also chases the first and the second pitch. Those 2 pitches are well out of the zone. The A-Rod we saw in the ALCS and the ALDS generally didn’t chase pitches like this.

Alex Rodriguez versus Pedro Martinez, Game 2, 4th inning, fly out:

Again, these pitches aren’t necessarily well located. Out and over the plate is a strength for A-Rod, but he failed to do anything here. He hit the ball hard, but he pulled it to left field rather than going with the pitch, away (this was directly after the Teixeira home run).

Alex Rodriguez versus Pedro Martinez, Game 2, 6th inning, strikeout:

A-Rod’s strike zone just doesn’t seem as good as it was against the Angels and the Twins. While Pedro makes 2 pretty good pitches here (2, 4), the third pitch of the at-bat was out of the zone. If Alex would have been patient with it, the count would have been a more favorable 2-1 (assuming the umpire calls the third pitch a ball) rather than the unfavorable 1-2. That, then, led to pitch 4—the strikeout pitch, inside.

Alex Rodriguez versus Ryan Madson, Game 2, 8th inning, strikeout:

Against Ryan Madson and his changeup, A-Rod totally folded. Though he allowed the first pitch to go by for ball 1, he then swung at 3 pitches that were in the exact same location (or thereabout, anyway) and all of them were well outside. Madson saw him diving over the outer part of the plate and just kept plugging away until he finally changed it up with a pitch on the inside (and up). There you have it, A-Rod’s worst at-bat of the series (on his last at-bat before Game 3).

Based on these 8 at-bats, I think A-Rod looks far too anxious at the plate. In previous postseason games this year, he would take his walks and allow the umpire to decide whether a close pitch was a strike or not (he wouldn’t chase). The Ryan Madson at-bat, in particular, was such a far cry from what we had been seeing all October, which was a patient Alex Rodriguez. In addition, when the Angels or the Twins left pitches up in the zone, especially on the outer part of the plate, Alex would crush them. Perhaps his nerves have finally caught up to him, at least for these two games.

Do I think we’ve seen the last of a clutch A-Rod this October? No, not at all. However, the at-bats above are, indeed, frustrating affairs. His strike zone judgment from Game 1 to Game 2 seems to have gotten worse, as well, which would indicate that he’s trying too hard. Hopefully, when he arrives in Citizen’s Bank Park and faces off against Cole Hamels in Game 3, he’ll opt for a more patient approach at the plate.

For Game 2 of the World Series, Jerry Hairston Jr. will start in right field over the struggling Nick Swisher. Hairston’s line against Pedro Martinez over 27 at-bats is .370/.433/.519. Of course, those at-bats are from years ago, when Pedro was with Boston and Hairston was with Baltimore, but Pedro was better back then, so maybe they’ll help Hairston tonight. Part of me wants to criticize Girardi for the move, as it smacks of desperation, but, to be honest, Swisher has looked awful at the plate—he’s practically diving on top of the ball before it gets to him—so I can’t complain (in Swisher’s defense, he did face Cliff Lee last night, who was damn near unhittable).

UPDATE – I’m left wondering, why not start Gardner or Hinske rather than rely upon dated stats?

From Adam Spunberg (YESNetwork.com):

Robertson is an amiable guy, but he let his affability extend to the Phillies today. After Marte came in and expertly navigated through two outs of a jam, Robertson proceeded to walk Jayson Werth and surrender a two-RBI single to Raul Ibanez. Good-natured Dave should offer to do CC Sabathia’s laundry for a week after muddying what had been a detergent-fresh start.

While Spunberg is correct in that David Robertson allowed a frustrating 2-out 2 RBI single after Damaso Marte had already pulled a rabbit out of a hat, I think placing this much blame upon him is absurd. Robertson allowed a weak single to Ibanez, that’s true, however, Phil Hughes had already walked two men—Rollins and Victorino—in that half inning and they were the two runs. The hit wouldn’t have mattered if Hughes had done his job (or if he had done even 1/3 of his job), but, then again, if that were the case, Robertson would not have been facing Raul Ibanez to begin with.

Last night’s loss, a 6-1 drubbing, can be connected to the poor job done by the Yankees offense and by two relievers, specifically—Hughes and Bruney. To heap blame upon anyone else is both unwarranted and unfair. Then again, I guess you could criticize Joe Girardi for bringing in Brian Bruney, who was awful in what will hopefully be his only appearance this series. I can see that move as a premature, informal surrendering of sorts, as he promptly gave up 2 earned runs and put the game out of reach for the Bombers’ bats. Still, while that’s a legitimate managerial critique, the Yankees didn’t lose because of that decision, instead, it just made winning that much more difficult in the 9th inning.

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images