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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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Yankees Avoid Arbitration With Trio Of Pitchers

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 182011

Jon Heyman reports that the Yankees were able to come to an agreement with their trio of arbitration-eligible pitchers. Phil Hughes got 2.7 million, Joba Chamberlain received 1.4 million, and Boone Logan scored 1.2 million. Avoiding arbitration hearings tends to be a positive for both sides, as the hearing can often get acrimonious and may impact the relationship between the club and the player. looking at the deals themselves, they each seem fair, although Logan may have gotten a smidge too much for a LOOGY.

It is also interesting to note the gap between the deals given to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Joba being a reliever likely saved the Yankees between 1.0 and 1.3 million dollars or so. The conspiracy theorist in me believes that now that the Yankees are paying Joba on a reliever scale, they may be more likely to announce that he will be given a chance to earn a rotation slot in Spring Training. While the amount of money at stake here is a relative pittance for the Yankees, they had no reason to announce him as a possible starter before the settlement and possibly cost themselves that money. This is probably wishful thinking, and I am fairly certain Brian Cashman will dispel this notion once he emerges from hiding to discuss the Soriano deal. However, for the time being, I will just cross my fingers and hope that someone in the Yankees organization still believes in Joba the starter.

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Verducci: Hughes and Nova Are Injury Risks

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Jan 132011

Tom Verducci released his “Verducci Effect” candidates this week, and Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova made the list. For those who are unfamiliar, Verducci has concluded that pitchers 25 years old and younger who see a workload jump of at least 30 innings in one season are at greater risk of injury than their peers. As I have said before, I do not find his conclusions compelling, for the following reasons:

1) His premise is obvious, and as Verducci himself notes, clubs are aware of it. The idea that overworking young pitchers can lead to injuries down the road is not a Tom Verducci original. Medical professionals have been making similar suggestions for years, and teams like the Yankees have paid attention. The idea that Verducci’s 30 IP threshold should be applied indiscriminately to all pitchers is facially ridiculous, and it seems obvious that the club has attempted to implement a system for establishing “safe” limits tailored to each pitcher. They clearly had a target for Hughes this season and Joba in 2009, and acted accordingly. As such, I see no real reason to be concerned about Phil’s workload. This is not an appeal to authority or a suggestion that the Yankees are always right, simply an acknowledgement that Verducci’s finding are far from an exact science (which he concedes), which leads me to my second point.

2) His findings are anecdotal. While he takes an accounting of his results each year, the reality is that his study is generally incomplete in terms of evidence. David Gassko tested the premise and found that the data did not support, and may have been in conflict with, Verducci’s findings. Michael Salfino of SNY did a similar takedown two years ago, listing a number of issues with the study, including its ignorance of the concept of regression to the mean.

3) One major issue with the study is the inherent selection bias created by looking at pitchers with a large innings increase. Generally, a jump of that sort would be caused by one of two things: either an unexpected jump in performance which dictates increased use of the player, OR the player had injuries in prior seasons and was unable to build up innings properly. Both causes suggest that the player is more likely than others to see either some regression or a recurrence of injury.

What do you think of the Verducci Effect?

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No Pettitte Shouldn't Mean No Patience

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

As you’ve probably heard, Andy Pettitte will not be pitching in 2011 (glove slap RAB). The first thing that ran through your head was probably a stream of expletives. Now, more than any time this offseason, we want the Yankees to make a move. Sign someone. Trade for someone. Do SOMETHING to help the rotation.

I can’t help but be on board with that mentality, but at the same time, we need to realize that the options out there are not all that wonderful. With each player out there–Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia–there is a good amount of risk. Francis and Duke are health concerns; Bonderman and Garcia are performance concerns. The White Sox looked to be shopping starters earlier in the Hot Stove Season, but we’ve heard nothing on that since, and now it seems unlikely that they will move a starter. Just about all other trade markets have been silent. Even if we don’t want to be patient, we have to be.

The Yankee Front Office–in which I have a lot of faith–likely recognizes the noticeable absence of good starting pitching options. They have also likely taken note of the relief pitching market, which has a stunningly similar lack of effective options (this isn’t to say that there aren’t good relief pitchers out there who could help the Yankees; it’s only to say that other things like cost and compensation will get in the way.). But on the other hand, the Yankee Front Office probably realizes that a rotation that is two fifths Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre isn’t all that great and probably won’t perform incredibly in the A.L. East. And while it’s likely that A.J. Burnett improves from his 2010 season, the only thing we can predict from his right arm is unpredictability. It looks like, though, we’ll have to deal with that rotation for at least some portion of the 2011 season.

As always, and as we all should, I have complete confidence in CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes, with even more experience under his belt, should improve. A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can’t possibly be worse than 2010. Ivan Nova does have some upside, no matter how small, but there’s still some there. Sergio Mitre…well…he gets ground balls? Mitre is really the only one I’m uncomfortable with. Luckily, replacing him at some point during the season shouldn’t be too hard. Like I said, there are some buy low options on the free agent market and at any point during the season, the trade market could develop and the Yankees could snag someone.

It’s not going to be easy, but we need to be steadfast in sticking with the patient outlook we’ve all taken on in the last few months. I’d be willing to bet that the Yankee starting five in October is not the one we’re looking at right now.

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Decisions, Decisions

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Dec 022010

The Yankees have a bunch of looming decisions. The most immediate decision has to deal with offering arbitration/tendering offers to Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Dustin Moseley, Sergio Mitre, and Boone Logan. There are two no brainers in here: yes, offer arbitration or tender contracts to Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. They’re definitely deserving of it and have performed well enough to get a decent contract.

Boone Logan should also be tendered a contract since he’ll probably still be cheap, considering he made just $590,000 in 2010 and performed well enough in the second half to justify a return.

In a perfect world, Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley would be non tendered and allowed to be free agents. However, as Joe and Mike over at River Ave. Blues said during yesterday’s Podcast, one of them will probably be brought back just for depth. I hate Sergio Mitre and Dustin Moseley is about as worthless to the Yankees as you can get, but either one will be cheap and very easy to let go when he lays an egg. Mitre showed a bit more, though, so I assume he’s the one who will be returning while Mr. Moseley will be looking for a minor league deal somewhere.

There are other pitching related decisions to be made, too.

The Rangers are apparently ready to offer Cliff Lee a five year deal. So, the decision for the Yankees will be whether to beat the Texas offer in years or money. My philosophy is always to overpay in money, rather than years when it comes to pitchers. The Yankees should sit back, see how much the Rangers were offering for five years, and then try to beat it by a few million. They should only go to a sixth year if that is an absolute sticking point for Mr. Lee and his agent.

Next, there is the Zack Greinke trade talk that’s been floating around. I’m not going to hold my breath on this trade, but it’s something nice to dream about. If the Yankees feel they can get this hypothetical deal done without having to trade Jesus Montero to Kansas City, they should absolutely pull the trigger (again, assuming ZG waves his NTC and allows himself to be acquired by the Yankees). I wonder if this is a possible plan B to Cliff Lee or just a plan A-2. That is, if one happens, does it cancel out the other? This leads me into another decision.

Will the Yankees wait on Andy Pettitte? The Yankees have a (very very very very) small chance at landing both Cliff Lee and Zack Greinke. However, if both are accomplished, that means they’d have no room for Andy Pettitte, unless they moved A.J. Burnett to the bullpen–which they’re not about to do–or traded him, which would be damn near impossible at this point. This makes me think that Lee is Plan A and a possible-but-not-at-all-probable Zack Greinke trade is Plan B. While I’d love to jump at the chance to get ZG, I’d prefer to sign Lee and Pettitte for just money, while holding on to the prospects that it would take to acquire Greinke.

What do you readers think? Do you think the Yankees should ditch Lee and pursue a Greinke trade? Should they wait on Andy Pettitte before implementing a Plan B? Should they let both Mitre and Moseley walk?

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Take it or Leave it?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 5 Responses »
Nov 152010

Let’s play a game here. The Bill James projections for 2011 are out on FanGraphs. They’re a bit rosy for my liking (and everyone’s I assume) but I still wanna take a look at some aspects of them to see if I’d “take it or leave it” for 2011.

The first thing I’ll do is assume that Andy Pettitte is pitching for the Yankees in 2011. The category I’ll go for here is innings pitched. James has Andy pegged for 140 innings pitched, probably because he’s coming off of a season in which he pitched his fewest innings ever (min. 20 games started). Given Andy’s age and health from last year, I would take 140 innings from him. I’d like more, but I’d take what I could get from a guy as old as Andy.

James foresees 42 walks from Robinson Cano. He had 57 total in 2010. However, his previous career high was 39. I’d like to see if Robbie could push it to 60 walks in 2011, but I won’t take my chances. I’d take 42 and be on my way.

A .344 wOBA for Derek Jeter? Oh HELL yes I would take it. Not only would it be a 24 point increase from 2009, it would likely make Derek the most valuable offensive SS in the American League.

144 games from Alex Rodriguez. That’s not a lot, but it’s more than he played in during both the ’09 and ’10 seasons. Like Pettitte, given his age, yes, I’d take that. Expecting more could be greedy.

111 games for Jorge Posada? No, I’ll leave that one. By being able to DH, I think Jorge will be able to crack at least break the 120 games mark for the first time since 2007 (he played in 120 games in 2010, but I’m saying MORE than 120 games for 2011).

A 3.76 FIP in 177 innings for Phil Hughes. Yes. Without even thinking twice. I think Phil CAN break those marks, but I’m not sure if he WILL break them in 2011. He may be able to break the innings mark easily, but that’s a good FIP goal for him.

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Savers and Drainers, Pitcher Edition

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Oct 272010

We looked at the Yankee savers and drainers on the offensive side of things yesterday, so today, let’s look at the pitching side of things. Again, we’ll go top 9 guys in fWAR order.

1. CC Sabathia, 5.1 fWAR worth $20.4MM. Salary: $23MM. Value: -$2.6MM
2. Phil Hughes, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.5MM. Salary: $0.447MM. Value: +$9.053MM
3. Andy Pettitte, 2.3 fWAR worth $9.2MM. Salary: $11.75MM. Value: -$2.55MM
4. Mariano Rivera, 1.7 fWAR worth $6.8MM. Salary: $15MM. Value: -$8.2MM
5. Joba Chamberlain, 1.4 fWAR worth $5.6MM. Salary: $0.487795MM. Value: +$5.1122MM
6. A.J. Burnett, 1.3 fWAR worth $5.2MM. Salary: $16.5MM. Value: -$11.3MM
7. David Robertson, 0.7 fWAR worth $2.9MM. Salary: $0.462650MM. Value: +$2.437MM
8. Ivan Nova, 0.5 fWAR worth $1.8MM. Salary: N/A. Value: N/A
9. Kerry Wood, 0.4 fWAR worth $1.5MM. Salary (Yankees only): $8.3279MM. Value: -$6.8279 $2.0279MM. Value: -$0.5279MM.

Ivan Nova’s salary wasn’t listed on Cot’s, but we can assume he gave the Yankees at least decent value because there’s no way he made anything close to $1MM this season. Kerry Wood’s value looks a lot worse than it is because the Yankees picked up most some of his salary from Cleveland and with just 26 innings for the Yankees, there’s no way he could’ve come close to matching his value he came close to matching his salary with them, but couldn’t quite get there.

CC Sabathia’s high salary makes him look less valuable, but the fact that he came so close to matching it just goes to show how awesome a pitcher he is.

Phil Hughes was essentially the pitching version of Brett Gardner: cost controlled talent producing at a relatively high level and giving the Yankees a ton of value. Hughes hits arbitration for the first time this year, so it will be interesting to see what his salary is going forward.

Joba Chamberlain, also arbitration eligible for the first time, provided a good deal of value for the Yankees, too–the second most on the team after Hughes. It’s worth noting that fWAR likes Joba a lot more than bWAR which had him at 0.4 WAR.

A.J. Burnett…well, yeah. The numbers speak for themselves there.

Mariano Rivera’s numbers look odd because he’s so highly paid, yet as a closer, he doesn’t pitch enough innings to rack up a very high WAR. Rivera did have the fourth highest fWAR among AL relievers, behind Matt Thornton (2.2), Joakim Soria (2.1), and Neftali Feliz (1.8).

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Curve key for Hughes tonight

Posted by Steve S. at 7:10 am 1 Response »
Oct 222010

Photo courtesy of the New York Times

Frank Piliere of MLB fanhouse recently did a breakdown of what went wrong with Phil Hughes’ last outing in Texas and why. The Rangers are simply too good a fastball hitting team to rely too heavily on the pitch, and his inability to locate the curve and cutter had them sitting on #1. He writes:

The big issue, however, was that Hughes was unable to locate those pitches. On top of that, the fastball command he had against the Twins was also gone. Working at 93-94 mph with his short arm action, he still had more than enough to miss bats early. But, as the game rolled along the Rangers made the adjustment Hughes had to know they’d eventually make. They began to sit on the fastball early in the count as it was more than evident that Hughes had nothing else to offer them.

The fastball command — or lack of fastball command, in this case — was surprising compared to Hughes’ last outing, but what shouldn’t have come as much of surprise was his lack of feel for the secondary pitches. Looking back at that Division Series outing, Hughes did establish his curveball but never proved he could routinely locate it in any quadrant of the strike zone.

The Rangers’ lineup requires far more than simply showing them a secondary pitch. If you’re going to beat them, much like with the Yankees lineup, you need to locate at least one secondary pitch in the strike zone. Hughes never really came close to doing that in this one, but of course the question is why.

When it comes to his curveball, his command of it has been a recurring problem for Hughes despite his strong 2010 campaign. Sometimes he lacks the extension he needs and begins to push his pitches. You’ll see his fastball command suffer from that and you’ll also see a lot of bouncing curveballs. And, we saw quite a bit of that on Saturday afternoon.

The Rangers (like the Yanks) are simply too good against the fastball to rely too heavily on it. The Cutter is there to keep the lefty batters honest and maybe get a ground ball from a righty here and there. The key is the curveball, and his ability to throw it for strikes early in the count.  Once ahead in the count he can expand the zone with the fastball/cutter and use the curve as a swing and miss pitch that he can bury out of the zone. But when behind in the count the hitters lay off the breaking balls and he has to go back to the fastball. That’s where the long layoff between the ALDS and ALCS likely hurt Phil. He couldn’t get the feel for the curve, and the Texas hitters just sat on his fastball early in the count and smacked him around.

But there’s a reason why Hughes had success facing the Rangers prior to his rough Game 2 outing. The Rangers should be a good match up for Phil. It’s an aggressive righty-heavy lineup and Hughes should do well against them. Check out his 2010 platoon splits from BR:

Split            G  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
vs RHB as RHP   31 343 320 37 81 15  1  8  0  0 19 69  3.63 .253 .292 .381 .674 122   6   0  1  3   1   0  .297    92    89
vs LHB as RHP   31 387 345 42 81 12  0 17  0  0 39 77  1.97 .235 .311 .417 .728 144   5   0  1  2   0   1  .253   107    93

His SO/BB rate is almost double facing righties than lefties, so when he’s on his game he should be mowing them down like he did in the 7 inning no-hitter from 2007. Staying on turn should help his command and feel for the breaking ball. But watch the curve, whether he’s bouncing it, locating it well and or getting strikes from the home plate umpire. That can be the difference between a dominating performance that sends the Yanks to Game 7, or another rough outing that will end their season.

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Short Leash On Phil

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:41 pm No Responses »
Oct 212010

Ed Price checks in with an interesting tidbit after speaking to CC Sabathia:

CC Sabathia says he is available in relief tomorrow for #Yankees. “I can probably throw 45 pitches, 50.”

While I hope that the need for CC does not present itself and that Phil Hughes can hand a lead directly to the primary relievers, this bit of information does highlight the way Joe Girardi needs to manage Game 6. With CC available for about 2 innings and the entire bullpen rested, Joe Girardi needs to have a very quick hook with Phil Hughes. If Phil starts to look shaky, puts a few runners on, and allows a run or two, a reliever needs to be ready to take his place and stop the bleeding.

In an elimination game, there is no use in planning for tomorrow. If Hughes needs to be pulled in the 3rd to keep the game in reach, Girardi must do so. If the situation calls for two innings from both Wood and Rivera, Girardi must do so. If you lose Game 6, there is no tomorrow, so you need to use your best options as early as possible to try and give the offense a chance to win the game against Colby Lewis and the Texas bullpen.

Game 6 is, quite obviously, a must win game. Joe needs to manage that way.

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Burnett's pitching, and Phil is the reason

Posted by Steve S. at 6:39 am No Responses »
Oct 182010

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

Manager Joe Girardi has reaffirmed his commitment to AJ Burnett many times in the past few days, and now yesterday and Brian Cashman shot down any notion that the Yanks might reconfigure their rotation should they lose tonight’s game to Cliff Lee and go down 2-1 in the series. The NY Post has the details:

“I believe in A.J.,” Cashman said during the team’s workout yesterday at Yankee Stadium.

When it was pointed out that not too many other people do, Cashman explained himself.

“We’ve seen it before,” Cashman said. “We know he’s capable.”

Not so much lately, though. Burnett has been awful for most of the season and hasn’t won since Sept. 1 or pitched since Oct. 2.

But Cashman said there was “no wiggle room” in regards to pitching CC Sabathia on three days’ rest.

“The way the schedule is set up, we’re gonna need four starters,” Cashman said. “He’s capable of doing a good job and we believe he’s gonna do a good job.”

And then he pointed to Saturday’s NLCS Game 1, when Roy Halladay struggled and lost to the Giants.

“It’s a crazy game,” Cashman said. “It’s an unpredictable sport. A.J. has a ton of talent. He is a competitor. He had a bad second half, but he’s capable of doing extremely well and giving us a great start. I’m hoping for it.”

I think the key is Phil Hughes. As I detailed yesterday, Andy Pettitte is pretty much the same on short rest. We all know CCs numbers on short rest have been better in a small sample and how good he was last year in the playoffs. Hughes is the big wild card. I’d love to post his numbers on short rest, but there’s a problem. They don’t exist. He’s never pitched on short rest.

As a young, talented hurler the Yanks have taken great care not to abuse his arm, and one of the unintended consequences of that is we now have no data whatsoever for the series at hand. No numbers to pore over, no observational analysis, no feedback from Phil, nothing. The playoffs are not the time to be experimenting, and with Phil already at a career innings high it would be even worse of an idea. The Yanks have no choice but to start Burnett and cross their fingers.

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