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Feb 192010

According to Bryan Hoch (MLB.com), manager Joe Girardi “said that he knows Granderson can play left or center field without issue and believes that Gardner can learn to play left. While Granderson is athletic enough to go back and forth between left and center depending on if Gardner is in the lineup, Girardi said he would prefer to have players in a set position.” This is an important aspect when deciding who will play left and who will play center for the Yankees in 2010. If the club has significant doubts about Gardner’s bat that cannot be alleviated by his defensive value, you could see them play him in left so that they have the option of improving the position at the trade deadline. If they were to play Gardner in center, only to see him get exposed over the course of a full season, then the club would likely have to find another left fielder – good left fielders are more available than good center fielders – which would then force Granderson to shift to center midway through the year. That does not appear to be an ideal situation for Girardi.

While it may not matter who plays center or left field defensively, it will matter with regards to roster flexibility.

Photo by Reuters

Feb 172010

In NoMaas’ interview with Brian Cashman, the GM was asked about Jesus Montero’s fate as a catcher.

He responded to the question, “Do you think [Montero's] future is behind the plate,” with the following:

We hope so. His value is highest as a catcher. His bat will find a way into the middle of the lineup, that’s without a doubt. Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first baseman, a rightfielder, a DH – that remains to be seen. But he’s got one of the best throwing arms in the minors, he’s got some of the best blocking…he’s just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release. That’s an area he needs to shorten up.

Note that Cashman rattles off “right fielder,” before designated hitter, as if being a DH is the last option if everything else fails. From what I’ve read, Montero could play first base, though his lack of foot speed would preclude him from being an outfielder. Conversely, Cashman does not seem to agree with that assessment, at least not here. Montero has not seen any time in the outfield during his short minor-league career, but if he can somehow man right field in the future – or left, but his arm strength might play better in right – then it would be a tremendous plus for the Yankees.

Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images

Feb 152010

In a piece written for Fantasy Baseball purposes, Troy Patterson compares former Yankee, Johnny Damon, to his “replacement,” to new Yankee, Curtis Granderson, and finds that while Damon might have had better overall numbers in his peak years, the two are currently similar – he calls them “clones” – in terms of offensive production given Damon’s declining skills. Patterson writes, Granderson “would be behind Damon in runs, steals and batting average in their prime, but now it’s much closer,” though he does acknowledge that Granderson’s innate power, which will be ultimately supplemented by the move to Yankee Stadium, is a valuable asset that may separate the two outfielders.

Speaking of Yankee Stadium-driven power, I think Patterson fails to acknowledge the extent to which Damon’s offensive decline might have been lessened had he stayed in the Bronx in 2010 and beyond, creating a larger gap in expected production between he and Granderson. Believe it or not but, despite all the talk about Damon’s power at home, the 36-year old actually had more power on the road for the majority of his Yankee tenure. From 2006-08, Damon hit .276/.365/.427 at home while hitting .296/.358/.467 away. Only when he entered the new Yankee Stadium did Damon truly come to love the short porch, as he hit .279/.382/.533 in the Bronx and only .284/.349/.446 on the road (this may seem like an outlier, but his .332 BABIP on the road suggests that this line might be indicative of a future decline). His home run to fly ball rate at home stood at a robust 16.5% in 2009 (in ’08 it was 8.3%, ’07 6.3%, ’06 13.1%), though his career rate is 9.4%. The new Yankee Stadium helped Damon enormously and, if he were slated to continue playing in the Bronx, I think his career would have been prolonged by the park’s comfortable climate.

If Damon heads to cavernous Comerica Park, his numbers, and power numbers, in particular, will experience a dramatic drop-off. He will be a lesser player. Patterson, in my opinion, understates this aspect of Damon’s decline in his piece (to him the decline is strictly age-based). Conversely, Curtis Granderson should gain a nice boost from the change in venues, as his career numbers at home – .261/.334/.451 – have been much worse than his numbers on the road – .284/.353/.516 – and the short porch which beckoned Damon will ultimately call Granderson’s name, as well. Therefore, while they are similar, I would be hesitant to label Damon and Granderson “clones,” as Patterson does.

Photos by Al Bello & Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Jan 092010

Scott and Jerry Hairston

BIG, FAT, GIANT EDIT: SCOTT HAIRSTON IS NOT A FREE AGENT

Since the World Series ended, we’ve spilled a lot of virtual ink on the left field situation. Well, I’m going to throw out more left field scenarios, with one of them spilling into the utility player’s spot as well. For today’s venture, we’ll be looking at the Hairston brother.

As we’ve heard recently, and as Steve reported this morning, the Yankees are interested in bringing Jerry Hairston, Jr. back. In general, this seems like a pretty good move. Hairston offers extreme positional flexibility, as he can play all three OF spots well (career UZR/150 of 20.6 in 323 OF games) and he can also play each position on the infield without being a total embarrassment out there.

Jerry also offers an upgrade over probable utility candidates Ramiro Pena and Kevin Russo. Not only is he a more experienced player than those two, but he can also play the outfield. Pena and Russo would both be awfully green heading into 2010, so it’d be nice to get at least one of them some more seasoning in the minors.

By bringing back Jerry, the Yankees can also fill two positions at once. Not only would they have their utility player, but they’d also have one who could be a platoon partner with Brett Gardner in left field. Signing Hairston likely means that the Yankees would not bring in another (Reed Johnson, Xavier Nady, etc.) outfielder because it could force the Yankees to make a move they likely wouldn’t want to make. My logic is that with Hairston, Pena/Russo, Cervelli, and (platoon partner here), one of Jamie Hoffmann and Brett Gardner becomes superfluous. So, either Gardner would have to be sent down to AAA and one of Hairston or (platoon partner) would have to start in LF, and that’s undesirable. The other option is to send Hoffmann back to the Dodgers, but I assume the Yankees would at least want to see what they have in him before doing so. They could work out a trade with the Dodgers for Hoffmann’s rights if they wanted to keep him while still sending him down. There is, however, another side to this coin.

Conceivably, the Yankees could bring in Hairston along with a left field platoon partner. In this scenario, the hypothetical/possible future battle between Ramiro Pena and Kevin Russo would more or less not matter, because they’d both end up being kept down in SWB anyway. That would make the bench:

Cevelli–C
Hairston–UTI
Hoffmann–OF
(Platoon Partner)–OF

To make this full circle, I’m going to suggest another possible platoon partner for Brett Gardner in left field. That man is the other Hairston in Major League Baseball; Jerry’s brother Scott.

Scott will be 30 this coming season and he’s spent time with the Diamondbacks, Padres, and A’s. Last year between San Diego and Oakland, Scott put up a line of .265/.307/.456 with a .331 wOBA in 430 plate appearances. Those numbers are hardly impressive, but they’re not awful either. He also played decent defense, putting up a 1.8 UZR/150 between CF (-9.0) and LF (+8.7). What makes Hairston desirable for the Yankees is that, like the other candidates, he crushes left handed pitching; last year, he OPS’d over .900 against them. For his career, his OPS vs. LHP is .867, highlighted by a .528 SLG.

In 350 PAs just in LF with +2 defense and not adjusting for a strict platoon, Scott Hairston projects (via CHONE wOBA) to be a 1.13 WAR player in 2010. Combined with Brett Gardner’s projected 1.25 WAR, a Scott Hairston + Brett Gardner platoon projects to be worth 2.38 WAR. (Begin big, fat, giant edit)Scott Hairston is not a free agent and would need to be acquired via trade. He is not worth trading for, unless the cost is insanely low.

Could the Yankees bring in both Hairston brothers? Of course. Will they? Probably not. However, it would not only be cool to see both brothers on the same team, but acquiring the both of them could be an efficient use of money and roster space, along with being an effective deployment on the field. No. Since Scott needs to be had via a trade, it’d be much better for the Yankees to go with Reed Johnson or Xavier Nady (end big, fat, giant edit; sorry about that, guys).

Jan 072010

Via MLBTR and Chad Jennings, we’ve learned the obvious: the Yankees are seeking a right handed hitting outfield bat for the bench. Reed Johnson was once again mentioned, as was Johnny Gomes. The other name that came up between the two posts was Rocco Baldelli.

Before going too much farther into this, I feel I should throw in a disclaimer of sorts. I’ve always had a soft-spot for Baldelli. He’s Italian and he played high school ball against my cousin. I was definitely a fan of his when he came up with the Rays, and my father and I used to joke that when he eventually realized his potential and became a free agent, he’d obviously become a Yankee. As we all know, though, Baldelli’s career hasn’t quite worked out as well as we though it would, mostly due to injuries. Anyway, onward and upward…

The case for Baldelli is, like Reed Johnson’s case, based largely on the fact that he’s pretty good at hitting left-handed pitching, which is what you want out of a right-handed hitting bench outfielder. For his career, Baldelli has posted a line of .295/.346/.485/.831 in 610 plate appearances against lefties. As a vs. LHP caddy for Brett Gardner, he could be pretty valuable. There are, however, some problems.

First, there’s simply the issue that he’s only played three games in left field, one in 2008 and one in 2009. He’s played the majority of his time in CF (4.2 UZR/150 in 397 games) and RF (-14.3 UZR/150 in 41 games). The sample sizes for all three positions are relatively small. I think, however, it’s safe to assume that if he were to play left field, Baldelli would probably be in the middle of his CF numbers and his RF numbers. In limited playing time, he’d only need to not be a butcher in LF.

The other glaring negative against Rocco is his mitochondrial disorder that prevents him from recovering from activity quickly. We can spin this as a positive in that he won’t get much time in the field if he’s a strict platoon partner with Gardner. He may also get a sporadic pinch-hit appearance against a real tough lefty if Curtis Granderson can’t right himself vs. LHP. However, what makes this such a big negative is the fact that if an injury occurs, Baldelli would most likely not be able to step in and play every day, like other bench outfielders could.

As it always does, the decision to sign Baldelli–or Johnson, or Gomes, or Nady–will come down to cost. Last season, Baldelli made just $500,000 in his time with the Red Sox. The Yankees could probably offer a similar deal to Rocco, maybe including some incentives. There hasn’t been any sort of market for him thus far in the offseason, so the Yankees would hold a great deal of leverage in negotiations. For a low base salary ($500K-$1MM?), with some PA incentives thrown in, Baldelli could be a cheap, effective prescription to the Yankees’ bench OF issues.

Dec 262009

When the Yankees traded for outfielder Curtis Granderson, we all assumed he would be manning center field every day and Melky Cabrera would be the left fielder, with Brett Gardner and Jamie Hoffmann on the bench as the extra outfielders. Now, with the trade of Melky Cabrera for Javier Vazquez, it would seem that Brett Gardner is the Yankees’ Opening Day left fielder.

On discussion boards across the Yankee blogosphere, some have suggested switching Granderson and Gardner, so the former plays left and the latter plays center. The argument is that Granderson likely has the bat to play left field and that Gardner, who doesn’t have the bat to play left field, is a great center field defender and the Yankees would be better served optimizing the defense in that way.

To take a semi-scientific look at this, I’m going to, based on CAIRO projections for wOBA and UZR and see which would be more valuable to the Yankees. To convert wOBA into runs, I’m going to use the method presented here: wOBA minus league wOBA (which is always the same as the league OBP; for simplicity, I’ll use 2009’s, which was .336), divided by 1.5 times plate appearances. Then I’ll use the method I used here around the same time last year to (roughly) calculate the WAR totals.

First, let’s assume that it’s Grandy in center and Gardy in left.

Granderson’s CAIRO projected wOBA is .347 in 676 PAs; Gardner’s is .321 in 435 PAs.

Granderson WAR in CF:
.347-.336 = 0.0110
0.110/1.15 = 0.0096
0.0096 X 676 = 6.4661, now we add the position adjustment for CF, +2.5 runs:
6.4661 + 2.5 = 8.9661, now we add Granderson’s CF UZR projection of +2
8.9661 + 2.0 = 11.0661, Granderson’s runs above average; now we divide by 10.5 runs, roughly the amount for one win, and we get 1.0539 Wins Above Average. Then, we add two wins, since an average player is about two wins better than a replacement player. So, our finally total is: 3.0539 WAR for Curtis Granderson as a center fielder. Now, let’s run through the process again for Brett Gardner in LF. This may get ugly, folks.

Running the numbers in the same order, and factoring in the -7.5 run hit Gardner takes for being in LF, then his 2 run projection in LF, we get 0.9358 Wins Above Replacement in LF for Brett Gardner. So, in total, a Gardner/Granderson LF/CF would give the Yankees 3.9897 WAR. Let’s reverse it now, with Granderson in left and Gardner in center. Granderson’s LF defensive projection is 0 runs and Gardner’s in center field is +7.

Through the same process, we get: 1.9015 WAR for Granderson in left and 2.3644 for Gardner in center, which adds up to 4.2659.

So, based on my rudimentary number crunching, it would seem that Granderson’s positional hit in left and Gardner’s positional boost in center adds up to more WAR for the Yankees. However, there are some things for which I did not account.

1. Granderson could definitely outdo a .347 wOBA and play better than just +2 in CF.
2. Gardner may not get that many plate appearances, especially if the Yankees sign a platoon partner (Reed Johnson? Xavier Nady?) to hit lefties.
3. Brett Gardner ends up not sticking in the Majors.
4. These are just projections, and CAIRO is a little more on the pessimistic side than, say, Bill James’ projections are. When the Marcels and ZIPs projections are released and can be added up with CAIRO’s, James’, and CHONE’s numbers, we could probably examine this again.

Oct 282009

Earlier today, I compared Philadelphia’s infield to New York’s infield and, although the matchup was relatively close, I concluded that the Yankees had the better group of players, overall. Now, I’m looking at outfields and DH options.

RIGHT FIELD

Nick Swisher (SW): Ah, the lovable Nick Swisher, who many thought should have been benched during the latter portion of the ALCS. Swish suffered from a tough matchup in that he never hit any of the Angels well, so I’m not going to expect him to play poorly against the Phillies. What I do know, however, is that Swisher hit .249/.371/.498 during the regular season, clubbing 29 home runs (or away runs, I guess, when you consider the splits), while having the highest walk percentage of any right fielder in 2009 (16.3 %). His wOBA of .375 was also the 4th best in the AL at right. Basically, Swisher is a good offensive player, regardless of his ALCS struggles. In addition, he’s also a pretty good right fielder. Though his 0.5 UZR and -1.6 UZR/150 would have you believe that he’s merely average with the glove, Swisher’s range rating—5.5 runs above average—says otherwise. The kid can do it all, folks (3.7 WAR).

Jayson Werth (RH): To be perfectly honest, while I’m not trying to discount Ryan Howard’s talent, Jayson Werth could very well be the Phillies’ scariest all around position player behind my man crush, Chase Utley. He’s just that good. In 2009, Werth hit .268/.373/.506, with 36 home runs, 99 RBI, and a .382 wOBA (3rd best in the NL at his position). He’s both powerful and patient (91 walks), much like a Yankee. While his speed score is Ryan Howardesque at 4.8, Werth managed to swipe 20 bases this year in 23 tries. Simply put, like Swisher, the man can play. He’s also rated well by defensive metrics, as UZR has him at 6.3 (5.7 UZR/150)—tops in the NL (good arm, good range). Once you combine Werth’s offensive and defensive talent, you have a player that is worth 4.7 WAR. He is Philadelphia’s best kept secret—a 6’ 5’’ superstar that no one really knows about.

Pitching to Werth: The Yankees are going to want to stay on the outer part of the strike zone in order to limit Werth’s power. Most of his home runs this season have been to left field, meaning he likes to pull pitches. Although he can hit the ball all over the park, only 4 of his homers were hit to right field, so if they can live on the outer edge of the zone, perhaps they’ll be able to prevent some of his powerful production. Working ahead of Werth is also key as he is a strikeout candidate. In fact, he strikes out 27.3% of the time, which is the 3rd highest percentage in baseball at his position.

Winner: Werth. He’s simply a better player.

CENTER FIELD

Melky Cabrera (SW): Melky is the Yankees worst hitter, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing when you’re in a lineup as deep as New York’s. He hit .274/.336/.416 this season with a .331 wOBA (9th in the league). While his offense is limited, thanks in part to the new Yankee Stadium, Melky managed to hit 13 homers and, in total, he drove in 68 runs. Plus, the Melk Man is a sleeper on the base paths. He stole 10 bases this season in 12 tries, despite a slightly below average speed score of 4.4 (5 is average). On the defensive side of things, Melky is no slouch in the outfield. He’s rated average by UZR (2.6) and most of that rating is based on his range. He also has a good arm, however, he needs to use it wisely (i.e., no overthrowing). Altogether, he’s worth 1.6 WAR, which is the third lowest value among AL center fielders.

Shane Victorino (SW): As Chad Jennings recently noted, the Yankees would probably like Austin Jackson to develop into a player like Victorino. The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit .292/.358/.445 this year with a .354 wOBA (2nd best for an NL center fielder). Surprisingly, he only hit 10 home runs when most thought he would get closer to 20 after his 14 home run campaign in 2008. For what he lacks in power, he seems to make up for in his speed, as Victorino stole 25 bases this season (though he did get caught 8 times). His speed score of 7.4 is also the 3rd highest in the NL. Moving away from offense, Victorino’s defense has been trumpeted as a significant asset, yet his UZR this year wasn’t particularly impressive. After being rated the 3rd best defender in the NL, at his position, in 2008, Victorino’s -4.2 UZR has him ranked closer to the bottom of the pack in 2009. This is primarily due to a huge decrease in Victorino’s range rating (-0.1 a year ago, -8.9 this year). He still has a plus arm, however, so runners beware. I wonder if Victorino’s disappointing rating have been influenced by the influx of defensive talent in center this season, making Victorino’s score lower than what it would have been in years past (it’s a relative stat). In the end, whatever the reasoning for Victorino’s down defensive year, he’s still worth 3.4 WAR (6th best in the NL).

Pitching to Victorino: Victorino, a switch-hitter, is better against lefties than he is against righties, an attribute that could definitely benefit him in this series (against Sabathia and Pettitte). According to pitch value data, he’s a total fastball hitter, so it would be best for the Yankees to attack him with a lot of breaking stuff or at least spot the fastball inside when he’s batting right-handed and outside when he’s batting left-handed. He’s 7.5 runs below average on changeups, and he also doesn’t hit sliders well. These are numbers that could haunt him in Game 1, when facing CC Sabathia. Don’t expect Victorino to strikeout much, though. He K’d 11.5% of the time this season, the lowest such percentage of any center fielder in the NL.

Winner: Victorino. His bat is better than Melky’s bat, plus he has real speed.

LEFT FIELD

Johnny Damon (LH): Johnny Damon had a pretty nice contract year in 2009, hitting .282/.365/.489, while swatting all 24 of his home runs—a career high—over the short porch at Yankee Stadium (he had 0 opposite field home runs). Furthermore, Damon’s .376 wOBA was the 3rd highest in the AL at his respective position, and he exhibited solid plate patience, walking 11.4% of the time (2nd highest for AL left fielders). At the age of 35, the wheels are still intact, though they’re nowhere near as good as they used to be. Damon stole 12 bases in 2009, his lowest total since he debuted with the Royals in 1995. His 5.9 speed score was also the lowest of his career. In terms of his defense, Damon went from being one of the better left fielders in the game in 2008 (6.7 UZR, 11.6 UZR/150), to one of the worst in 2009 (-11.2 UZR, -11.9 UZR/150). He has looked bad in left field all year and one wonders how this will cost the team going forward. Therefore, while his offensive value is a plus, especially at Yankee Stadium, Damon’s poor defense severely impacts his overall value (2.8 WAR—the 2nd lowest value in the AL).

Raul Ibanez (LH): Ibanez is an incredible player in that he seems to get better as he gets older. In his first season with the Phillies, the 37-year old hit .272/.347/.552, drove in 93 runs, and clubbed a career high 34 homers. His wOBA of .379 was the 3rd best in the NL amongst left fielders and, amazingly, his .552 slugging percentage was the second best of any outfielder in either league (he trailed only Adam Lind in that category). The only problem with Ibanez, offensively, is that he didn’t hit much in the second half. After spending some time on the DL earlier in the year, Ibanez returned to the Philly lineup and hit .232/.326/.448 after the All-Star Break (with only 12 home runs). That would suggest that he’s still hurting. Though Ibanez’s offense this season has been above its typical level, despite the second half swoon, his defense has also been abnormally good. His UZR this season was 6.9 (8.1 UZR/150), the 3rd best in the league. In 2007-08, Ibanez was awful in the outfield, so this could very well be a statistical anomaly. This year, because of his significant offensive and defensive contributions, Ibanez was worth 4.7 WAR (2nd best value for an NL left fielder).

Pitching to Ibanez: For his career, Ibanez has hit righties better than lefties (.850 OPS versus .760 OPS). However, in 2009, the inverse was true as he did much of his damage against southpaws (.998 OPS versus .859 OPS). Most of Ibanez’s home runs were pulled to right field, so if the Yankees want to attack him appropriately, soft stuff away seems like the best route (and if you go inside, like many other pull hitters, make sure to handcuff him, don’t leave anything low and over the plate). That should prevent him from going deep over Nick Swisher’s mohawk.

Winner: I’m inclined to say Ibanez, but his second half is troubling and he hasn’t done much in the playoffs to downplay the issue (.226/.333/.387). For this reason, I’m going to have to go with Damon, who has hit safely in his last 6 playoff games (with 2 HR and 5 RBI).

DESIGNATED HITTER

Hideki Matsui (LH): This is a quick one. Matsui batted .274/.367/.509 this season. He has 28 home runs—a Yankees DH record—and 90 RBI to his name. He has had a tough postseason, thus far, but his postseason numbers have always been very good, therefore, I’m hesitant to say that the problems will carry over into the World Series (he will face two good lefties in Hamels and Lee, however). On the season, Matsui’s .378 wOBA and 2.4 WAR were 3rd best amongst designated hitters. Only Adam Lind and Jason Kubel were better (yet Kubel can’t hit lefties while Matsui can).

Matt Stairs (LH)/Ben Francisco (RH): I expect the Phillies to do a few things with the DH role. They’ll likely use Raul Ibanez as the DH and play the right-handed Ben Francisco in left field, or they could choose to go with the lefty Matt Stairs, perhaps against A.J. Burnett (he has been awful this season, however). I believe the Francisco idea is the most likely one, especially for tonight, with a lefty on the mound. If you’re wondering about Francisco, who was part of the Cliff Lee package the Cleveland Indians sent over to Philly, he hit a respectful .257/.332/.446 with 15 home runs and 14 stolen bases. Although many seem to consider him a good outfielder, in limited playing time, UZR rates Francisco rather poorly in left (-6.6, -12.9 UZR/150).

Pitching to Stairs/Francisco: If it’s Francisco, according to pitch value data, changeups and soft stuff will work, but you can certainly challenge him with fastballs (he does have some power, however). He doesn’t hit righties or lefties particularly well, which makes things easier for Joe Girardi. If the Yankees are pitching to Stairs, he’ll always have power, but at 41, he cheats to catch up to the fastball. The Yankees can probably beat him with any pitch that is located properly.

Winner: Matsui. This is the AL advantage.

In sum, while the Yankees have a better infield, the Phillies have a better outfield. Their DH candidates don’t really inspire much confidence, however, as Hideki Matsui is better than any combination of players that they could trot out on a given day (even if they use Ibanez as the DH and put Francisco in left field, I’m not sure that Francisco’s defense would make up for his weak bat). Based on the comparison I’ve provided, I think it’s safe to say that the Yankees have the better offensive team and a significant advantage at Yankee Stadium. It’ll be a much closer matchup, offensively, when the Yankees lose Matsui’s bat in Philadelphia.

Photos by Yahoo! Sports

Apr 062009

Despite the well-chronicled signings of the top three free agents on the market to massive, multi-million dollar deals, the Yankees actually shrunk their payroll by about $8 Million, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Other teams engaging in George Costanza-like shrinkage include the Red Sox ($10M) and 12 other teams in total. Despite this trend, the average salary did actually increase by 4% to $3.26 million, so you may want to hold off on starting that fundraising telethon for starving baseball players.

With big ticket items like Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, and Andy Pettitte coming off the rolls next year, the team from the Bronx is in a position to further streamline their organization by promoting Phil Hughes to fill Pettitte’s shoes as well as Austin Jackson to plug the hole in left field, with Swisher moving to right, taking over for Nady, who is also a FA after this season.

The OF is really the only fluid situation going forward, with the IF positions all locked up long term. With no decent SS FA’s, Jeter appears entrenched in that spot, barring a blockbuster, but in the OF, anything could happen. The Yanks could have 2 to 3 spots in that area open (possibly even 4, if you consider a DH/OF option). Much depends on how Gardner plays, how Swisher bounces back, if Nady builds on his breakout last year, etc. It’s also conceivable Damon or Matsui comes back to fill the DH role, though I Cashman seems to be trending young with most major decisions of late and I suspect they may want to leave the DH spot open long term for Posada.

Overall, the Yankees, despite being committed to several long-term, big-money deals, seem to have a decent amount of salary and roster flexibility.  There are many options in the outfield, of both in-house and free agent varieties.  Future catcher should be filled in-house, but if not, there are names like Joe Mauer who will be available soon.  Mariano can seemingly go forever, but if not, there are candidates both within and without.  The only trouble position in the future would appear to be shortstop, if Jeter’s defense (& offense) deteriorates to the point where he becomes a liability.  There are no soon-to-be FA’s at that spot, nor are there in-house options (unless Angelini has a breakout season).