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Swish Wants to Stay

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Jan 312011

Way back on November 29 of last year, I wrote a piece looking forward to the 2011-2012 Hot Stove season. On the list of possibly expiring contracts was fan favorite, Nick Swisher.

Like Cano, Nick Swisher has an option for the 2012 season ($10.25MM) with a $1MM buy out. The OF FA class of 2012 doesn’t look particularly strong and Swisher’s got a skill set that should age well. He’s also gotten himself into very good shape and doesn’t have a body that is likely to break down. I’d bet on the Yankees picking up that relatively cheap option and keeping Nick on patrol in YSIII’s right field.

Via LoHud:

“I don’t want to leave New York,” Swisher said. “This is the place to be. I love it. I absolutely love it… Meeting my wife, and Kevin Long, and the city of New York just completely resurrected my career.”

Since day one, Nick Swisher has fit in with the Yankees in every way possible. His personality supposedly helped loosen up the Yankee clubhouse; that same personality has made him a hit with the media and the fans, and most importantly, his performance on the field has been fantastic. Since joining the Bombers in 2009, Swisher’s hit to a .376 wOBA and has been worth 7.4 fWAR (7.7 bWAR).

Unless he absolutely tanks, or gets viciously injured, I’ll stick to the prediction I made back in November. Swisher will be 31 for the 2012 season so he won’t be too old and $10.25MM is a relatively affordable option. The list of outfield free agents is long, but pretty thin. Carlos Beltran, J.D. Drew, David DeJesus, and Grady Sizemore are on the list, but three of them are health risks and DeJesus doesn’t represent any sort of an upgrade over Nick Swisher; in fact, he’s more or less a downgrade. All signs point to Nick Swisher sticking around through 2012.

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Creating Lineups

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 242011

We pretty much know what the 25 man roster is going to be at this point, so let’s see what the different lineups will be. Using the latest round of CAIRO Projections from RLYW.net, I’ll put the player’s projected wOBA vs. RHP/LHP next to his name/position.

These projections are a combination of what I think the lineups WILL be:

vs. RHP

1. Jeter, SS .334
2. Swisher, RF .353
3. Teixeira, 1B .381
4. Rodriguez, 3B .382
5. Cano, 2B .379
6. Posada, DH .352
7. Granderson, CF .363
8. Martin, C .333
9. Gardner, LF .336

So against RHP, everyone projects to be at least average, with the middle of the lineup solidly above that mark. The median wOBA is .353. Let’s see what they could do versus LHP; there are a few ways this could go.

Option 1 vs. LHP (Granderson sits, Gardner to CF, Jones to LF)

1. Jeter, SS .364
2. Swisher, RF .367
3. Teixeira, 1B .393
4. Rodriguez, 3B .392
5. Cano, 2B .354
6. Posada, C .358
7. Jones, LF .332
8. Martin, C .357
9. Gardner, CF .310

The median wOBA here is .358. That’s not much of a change from the vs. RHP lineup, but it’s still a slight uptick. If we replace Gardner with Curtis Granderson (and his .297 projected wOBA vs. LHP), the median wOBA stays the same, since his would then be the lowest wOBA instead of Gardner’s. So, quickly, that tells us no matter which lefty outfielder is replaced, there won’t be much of a difference in the lineup. I suspect Joe Girardi will just keep the hot hand in there until he cools. All three outfielders in that shuffle–Granderson, Gardner, and Jones, are good enough at what they do that neither will leave an extraordinarily huge hole when absent from the lineup.

Just about everyone, myself included, sees a bounce back for Derek Jeter. After all, how could we not? Last year was the worst year of his career and there’s almost no way he can be that bad again. I wonder, though, if his slide continues, will Girardi pull him from the leadoff spot? If he does, who takes his place? I say it’s one of Gardner or Swisher. Gardner could work because he sees a ton of pitches, walks, and can steal bases. Swisher could take it because he’s a switch hitter with no drastic platoon split and provides a little more power, which would be useful for those batting behind him. He does strike out a bit more, though, but he showed in 2010 that he can cut back on them.

The rest of the lineup is just fine if you ask me. You could switch Tex/A-Rod if you wanted to, but the difference would probably be negligible. If anything, this lineup gives me confidence that the Yankees can still make the playoffs. Any lineup that features those hitters has more than a puncher’s chance at making it to October. Making it through October with that (current) pitching staff would be a challenge, but this team can definitely make it there. And once you’re there, anything can happen.

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Expectations

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 032011

A new year is upon us and soon, a new baseball season will be upon us. We’re going to have expectations with certain players, as we always do. We have to think of realistic expectations, though. For this post, I’m going to look at each player still on the Yankees from the 2010 team, examine his 2010 wOBA and see if that’s a reasonable expectation for 2011.

Robinson Cano, .389 wOBA

Last year was a career year for Robinson. He ripped the cover off the ball and everything seemed to click for him on offense. He ripped righties and lambasted lefties. He hit for a high average. He hit for power. Expecting another year like that would be unfair, but, Cano is in his age-based-prime and clearly has an incredible talent for hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a .389 wOBA from him again. Somewhere in the .375-.385 range seems right for Robinson.

Nick Swisher, .377 wOBA

Cutting the fat, yeah, I think this is definitely do-able. His 2009 wOBA was .375, just two points off of last year’s career high mark. He had basically the same year production-wise, he just did it differently. I’m confident that Swisher can definitely put up a .370+ woBA again in 2011. What I’m not sure of is if it will look more like 2009 with a lot of walks and a lot of power or if it will look like 2010, with similar-but-slightly-diminished-power and a higher average.

Mark Teixeira, .367 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Mark Teixeira will have a wOBA higher than .367 in 2011.

Alex Rodriguez, .363 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Alex Rodriguez will have a wOBA higher than .363 in 2011.

Brett Gardner, .358 wOBA

This is the most interesting case. Obviously, Gardner proved himself in 2010. He survived the entire year and hit much better than we all expected him to. His super-plus defense made him a huge value for the team . Part of me thinks that Gardner can do it again. Part of me doesn’t. If I’m setting an over/under for Gardner’s wOBA, I’m going to say .340.

Jorge Posada, .357 wOBA

Posada’s another catch-22 of sorts. In one way, we should expect equal or worse performance from Posada in 2011 because he’s getting old. Older players, especially catchers, tend not to hit at .357 wOBAs with regularity. On the other hand, Posada is a good hitter who’s stayed above average in terms of offense for a while. As a full time DH, he’ll be without the physical burden of catching. Because of that, we could see a rise in offense from Jorge. I think .357 is a fair over/under and I think Jorge will be over. I may be in the minority there.

Curtis Granderson, .346 wOBA

Curtis Granderson’s season was a bit odd, wasn’t it? There were some good things–10% walk rate, .221 IsoP–but some bad things as well (most of the season against LHP). All together, it added up to an above average, but not spectacular, .346 wOBA. Call me an optimist, but Granderson will out do that .346 wOBA. I’ll put the over/under at .355 and take the over.

Derek Jeter, .320 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Derek Jeter will have a higher wOBA than .320 in 2011. Jeter may be getting older and 2010 may’ve been a career worst year, but there’s no way he can hit that poorly again. At least, I hope there’s no way he can hit that poorly again.

Francisco Cervelli, .315 wOBA

This is fair and I expect him to do that again. If he does, with less playing time, I’ll be happy.

Russell Martin, .306 wOBA

His 2009 wOBA was .307 after a .351 wOBA in 2008. Martin’s bat seems to be trending downwards, which is troubling. Despite a super low wOBA though, he was able to put up over 2 fWAR in 2010, thanks to his defense. In the last two years, Martin has had a low BABIP despite relatively high LD%s, so maybe 2011 is when he gets a BABIP rebound. That would definitely cause a wOBA rebound. Given the last two years, I think we should expect around a .310-.315 wOBA for Martin, but he could easily out perform that.

Ramiro Pena, .233 wOBA

Same as Cervelli.

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Looking Ahead

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Nov 292010

We’re all focused on the present. The Yankees have a bunch of pending transactions. They’ve made an offer to Derek Jeter; they’ll probably do the same to Mariano Rivera and Cliff Lee shortly. I’m sure there are other signings and trades that the front office is mulling over right now, too. But what about next year? There are some interesting personnel decisions to be made in a year’s time. Let’s run down some of them.

The biggest one involves CC Sabathia. While his contract does run to 2015, CC does have an opt out clause he can use after the 2011 season. No matter what, I think CC is going to exercise this option. I can see him hanging on if he has a bad year just because his value will be a little down. However, if he has an average CC year, I think he’ll opt out. If he does, the Yankees could just let him walk, or try to renegotiate at a lower AAV. While he’s been nothing but reliable in his career, CC will be approaching his mid thirties. Maybe the Yankees will want to let someone else pay for Sabathia’s decline phase.

Jorge Posada’s four year deal is up after 2011. Hopefully, this one won’t be an issue. Jorge will ride off into the sunset (hopefully to a sunset in Cooperstown) and Jesus Montero (happy belated birthday, Jesus!) takes over. Whether or not he retires, though, I’d bet on 2011 being Jorge’s last year with the Yankees. The only way I see him coming back is if he really mashes the ball as a DH and Jesus Montero can handle catching 120+ times a year, letting Jorge DH full time.

After 2011, Robinson Cano has a $14MM club option with a $2MM buy out. This is going to be a tough one. Cano just had his best season and it’s unlikely for him to repeat it. He’s still the best second baseman in the A.L., though. Unless he just tanks or gets injured, I’m relatively sure the Yankees will pick up Robbie’s option.

Like Cano, Nick Swisher has an option for the 2012 season ($10.25MM) with a $1MM buy out. The OF FA class of 2012 doesn’t look particularly strong and Swisher’s got a skill set that should age well. He’s also gotten himself into very good shape and doesn’t have a body that is likely to break down. I’d bet on the Yankees picking up that relatively cheap option and keeping Nick on patrol in YSIII’s right field.

This isn’t worth discussing much, but let’s give it one sentence. Damaso Marte has a $4MM option for 2012 with a $0.25MM buyout; it will be bought out.

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Things I Don't Want

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 9 Responses »
Nov 042010

Every off season, we as fans make wish lists regarding the Yankees. We look at the possible moves and determine what we want to see happen over the Hot Stove Season. That list is pretty simple this year:

1. Cliff Lee
2. JeMoPet

There are some things, however, that I don’t want to happen. Here’s that list and why:

1. Derek Jeter to be able to essentially name his own contract. Captain or no captain, team legend or journeyman, no player should be able to write the terms of his own deal; Jeter is no exception to this and the Yankees do need to take a stance that has, at the very least, something resembling a line in the sand. I tweeted earlier what I want out of the Jeter deal: I want it to be a two year deal, I’d still be comfortable with a three year deal, and could swallow a four year deal if the average annual value was low or if the contract was front loaded. Anything more than a four year deal is too risky and something from which the Yankees should walk away.

2. Nick Swisher to be traded. Those who want to trade Nick Swisher just baffle me. He’s been nothing but a great producer for the Yankees in his two seasons in New York and guess what? He’s pretty cheap. He only makes $9MM in 2011 and will likely outplay that amount in terms of $WAR. Jayson Werth is a fairly attractive replacement, but he’s 32, isn’t that big an upgrade over Swisher, and will definitely cost a lot more than $9MM. Obviously, Swisher isn’t untouchable, but it’s got to be a hell of a deal if he’s gonna go.

3. Jesus Montero to be traded. I’ve been over this ten times so I’ll keep this short: no matter his position, Montero will provide value to the Yankees. Unless it’s for an absolute stud starting pitcher in his early to mid 20′s, the Yankees shouldn’t be interested in trading Montero.

4. A full time DH. Yeah, I know. I’ve always argued against a rotating DH. But, with the plans the Yankees probably have for 2011, I don’t see a full time DH fitting in with the roster. Maybe they could go with someone until Jesus Montero comes up (to split time with Jorge Posada at C/DH), but I doubt that happens.

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Money Savers and Drainers

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Oct 262010

As I like to do every season, I’m going to compare the Yankee players’ theoretical fWAR dollars to their actual salaries and see which players gave the Yankees the most value and which players drained the most money. We’ll do batters today and pitchers tomorrow.

We’ll do the list in WAR order (nine highest), then we’ll sum it up at the end.

1. Robinson Cano, 6.4 fWAR worth $25.5MM. Salary: $9MM. Value: +$16.5MM
2. Brett Gardner, 5.4 fWAR worth $21.6 MM. Salary: $0.425MM. Value: +$21.175MM
3. Nick Swisher, 4.1 fWAR worth $16.4MM. Salary: $6.75MM. Value: +$9.65MM.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3.9 fWAR worth $15.3MM. Salary: $32MM. Value: -$16.7MM.
5. Curtis Granderson, 3.6 fWAR worth $14.3MM. Salary: $5.5MM. Value: +$8.8MM.
6. Mark Teixeira, 3.5 fWAR worth $14.00MM. Salary: $20MM. Value: -6.00MM.
7. Derek Jeter, 2.5 fWAR worth $9.8MM. Salary: $21MM. Value: -$11.2MM
8. Jorge Posada, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.7MM. Salary: $13.1MM. Value: -$3.3MM.
9. Francisco Cervelli, 1.1 fWAR worth $4.4MM. Salary: $0.418MM. Value: +$3.82MM

Value Ranks:
1. Gardner
2. Cano
3. Swisher
4. Granderson
5. Cervelli
6. Posada
7. Teixeira
8. Jeter
9. Rodriguez

Italics means negative value.

This list should really surprise no one. The Yankees’ high priced, older talent had a bad collective 2010. Brett Gardner had what will likely be his career year while making just over the league minimum, so of course he’s going to return great value. And despite our frustrations with him, Frankie Cervelli did give the Yankees a bit of value this year. I think we’ll see the Melky Plan with Francisco: hang on to him while he’s cheap, then jettison him when he starts hitting arbitration and starts making too much money.

It also turns out that the Granderson deal was not some horrid thing that should’ve been undone. Granderson is relatively cheap for next year ($8.25) but goes up a bit in 2012 and ’13 ($10, $13 option) so granting a rebound year, he should return good value next year as well.

Nick Swisher makes only $9.75 next year so assuming he can repeat this year–or do something between 2010 and 2009–he’ll probably return value again, too.

As for the guys in the red, Teixeira is the only most likely to bounce back, considering his relatively young age compared to Jeter and Rodriguez and Posada. He also plays the least physically demanding position of the three and had a down year with the bat. I don’t think we’ll see the aforementioned trio in the black unless they have monster years.

Check back tomorrow when we look at the pitchers, starters and relievers.

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Pick One

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Oct 052010

I’m going to show you to player lines. You need to pick one:

1. 150 G, 607 PA, .249/.371/.498, 28 HR
2. 149 G, 631 PA, .288/.358/.508, 29 HR

Okay, so they basically put up similar production–.869 OPS for 1, .866 for 2–in different fashions.

Player 1 had more power (.249 IsoP) than Player 2 (.218), but both had no trouble putting the balls over the fences or hitting them for extra bases.

Player 2 hit for a better average, but Player 1 made up for it with a stellar .122 IsoD.

If you haven’t figured out who these two are yet, I’ll give you a hint: it’s one player.

If that’s not enough, it’s 2009 Nick Swisher vs. 2010 Nick Swisher. Despite two different approaches, Nick’s 2010 season pretty much mirrors his 2009 season, which was arguably his best season. We’ve already discussed how close the OPS numbers were, so let’s go farther with the similarities before we go to the differences. wOBA? .375 each year. wRC+? 132 in ’09 and 137 in ’10.

Remember back in early 2009 when some wanted Xavier Nady to start over Swish? Neither do I. Anyway, let’s look at the differences:

The big differences we see are in batting average, walk rate, and BABIP. Obviously, Nick’s BA shot up .039 points and that’s the most noticeable difference of the season. It is mostly the product of a great deal of hard work in the offseason to change his approach and become a different player. Certainly, the time he put in with Kevin Long paid off. At least for a second, though, we have to look at the huge upswing in BABIP that Swisher saw this season.

His BABIP went up to .335 from .272 (.286 career), which appears to be a freakish jump for which their could be a negative correction. BUT–isn’t there always a but in baseball?–Nick’s line drive rent went up to 19.7% from 16.3% in 2009, so he was hitting the ball harder in 2010, which usually means a higher BABIP, which usually means a higher batting average. Swish also cut down on the infield fly balls big time (down to 7.9% from 12.3), so that was likely a big factor. If Nick can keep up this hard contact next year, we could easily see a repeat of 2010.

The only thing I’m concerned about is the big drop in walk rate Swisher saw in 2010. He was able to make up for it with a good batting average, but if a BABIP correction does come in 2011, I’m worried that Swisher won’t be able to re-re-adjust and go back to his 2009 walk-taking self. But, if Swisher could adjust his game from 2009-2010, it’s very likely that he can go back in midseason. With this semi-transformation, Nick Swisher has proved two things: there’s more than one way to skin a cat to the tune of a .375 wOBA and that he’s incredibly talented. What, then, is the next step?

Well, we could get greedy and ask Swisher to combine the two approaches: a good average posting, walk taking power hitter. If that happens, the Yankees will basically have the right field playing-non-douche-version of Kevin Youkilis. I’d take that so long as there’s no dead-squirrel beard involved.

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Discussion: OF/DH Rotation for 2011

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 29 Responses »
Aug 252010

Last night, our very own Moshe Mandel dropped an intriguing tweet about the future of the Yankee outfield and DH situation.

At first glance, I don’t necessarily agree with Moshe here. I like Carl Crawford, but I do have doubts about him going forward. His power has been just around average for his career (.176 this year, .145 for his career) and his carer 5.4% BB rate is uninspiring (though he has been above 7% the last two years). Still, though, he’s a good hitter and plays very good defense. With an OF of Crawford/Granderson/Gardner across, the Yankees would be Death to Flying Things East.

Of course, though, this muddies up the DH situation. I’m of the mindset–Moshe disagrees, and I see his point–that Jesus Montero will break camp with the 2011 Yankees. If this happens, he and Jorge Posada should split the catching and DHing duties. In Moshe’s above scenario (if we assume JM is w/the team in 4/2011), this would leave Nick Swisher out in the cold. Moshe, though, disagrees with me and thinks Swisher could DH and play the field against LHP while Granderson or Gardner sits.

There is another angle that could placate both of us. Brett Gardner has played very well and improved his stock. If there is one player the Yankees could sell high on in a trade, it’s Brett Gardner. If the Yankees sign Crawford, I wouldn’t be surprised if this route was taken. That would make the OF Crawford/Granderson/Swisher, which is good offensively and also great defensively. I’m not saying I WANT this to happen, but it COULD happen.

I still think the Yankees should avoid Crawford and use that money to go after Cliff Lee. Gardner has proved himself to be at least an average regular with the bat and a superb defender. As long as he remains cheap, he’ll be very valuable for the Yankees. I would have no problem with the Yankees starting him in LF next year with Granderson and Swisher (both under contract) alongside him.

What do you guys think?

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Thoughts from a Win

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
Aug 132010

I usually do this kind of post after a loss, so it’s nice to do it after a win. Here’s what I was thinking during last night’s game:

1. I didn’t like that Girardi sent Sabathia out for the 9th. He hadn’t thrown too many pitches at that point, but he’d worked pretty hard all night and it was quite hot on the mound. In other CC news, his average fastball last night went 95.72 MPH and he topped out at 99.3. Either he was really bringing it or the gun was a little juiced up. I think it’s a little bit of both.

2. Nice to see Nick Swisher have a rebound game after a Golden Sombrero performance. That 13 pitch walk against Bruce Chen was all sorts of awesome. That’s why Nick Swisher bats second.

3. Austin Kearns had his first Yankee home run tonight. He’s been a pleasant surprise and should prove useful down the stretch.

4. Curtis Granderson picked up two hits against the lefty starter. It’s obviously small progress, but it’s better than nothing. In terms of the new swing, it looked like he was holding his hands farther back and had closed up his legs a bit. Your thoughts?

5. Even though he gave up a double and two inherited runs–as well as a cheap infield single–it was nice to see David Robertson go to his bread and butter to get Kendall swinging to end the game. He earned his first save of the season and second of his career. I’ve said it a lot, but I think that’s just another one of many.

6. He had a sac fly, but something still seems off with Alex Rodriguez. At least once a game, I find myself saying “Wow, he should’ve destroyed that pitch.” He and Kevin Long definitely have some work to do.

7. I love Ken Singleton as the color commentator, but when it’s just he and John Flaherty, the booth can be a little dry. Flash just sucks all the life out of there. The YES booth needs a lot more Bob Lorenz.

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Second Half Things I've Liked and Disliked

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Aug 122010

I don’t like that…

–Nick Swisher, not including last night’s game which is still going on, has a walk rate under 6% in the second half and has walked just six times. That ~8% jump in O-Swing% may be starting to catch up with him.

–Brett Gardner has a .501 OPS in the second half. That’s just icky. As Steve pointed out in the RAB comments last night, that could be a hangover effect from the thumb injury.

–Alex Rodriguez’s OBP in the second half is .306. In a similar vein, Curtis Granderson’s is .298.

–Phil Hughes has had just two quality starts since the All-Star Break. He’s also averaged almost 19 pitches per inning in that time.

–CC Sabathia has a 1.629 WHIP in the second half.

–This is an all year thing, but it’s funny anyway: in 148 more plate appearances, Francisco Cervelli has five fewer walks than Nick Johnson.

Now, let’s go to things that I like…

–Despite the low OBPs, both Granderson and Rodriguez have IsoPs around .200 in the second half.

–Robinson Cano has a .975 OPS in the second half.

–Robinson Cano’s non-last night-inclusive second half non intentional walk rate is 10.10. With IBBs, it’s up to 14.14. Love this so much.

–Mark Teixeira has a 1.038 OPS in the second half, including a .118 IsoD and a .368 IsoP.

–Kerry Wood, not including last night, has seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings.

–Jesus Montero’s July and August wOBAs: .442 and .568. Haha. Wow.

Any oddities/factoids you guys have noticed? Please share.

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