Nick Swisher, by all measures, had an excellent 2009. After a terrible 2008 in Chicago that lead to him being traded for practically nothing, Swisher bounced back in a big way and helped the Yankees to their 27th championship. The question now is whether he can repeat his performance. On the surface, his numbers suggest that he is not due for a major regression:

Swisher’s numbers in 2009 are similar to those from 2006 and 2007, and a look at his Fangraphs page shows that most of his other indicators (such as batted ball data) have remained consistent and steady as well. However, two recent articles suggest that if you dig deeper, you might find some reasons to believe that Swish is due for at least a bit of a regression regarding both his walk rate and his power. First, Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond The Boxscore used swing data to compute plate discipline, and then extrapolated an expected walk rate for each player. Swisher’s estimated walk rate was 12.5%, while his actual walk rate was 16%. This suggests that he is likely due for a correction in his walk rate in 2010.

Another important element of Swisher’s game, his power, may also be facing a bit of a downturn. Mike Axisa explains:

“Just Enough” homers are those that cleared the fence by less than ten feet vertically or that landed past the wall by less than the fence height (so if it’s an eight foot wall, it landed no more than eight feet deep)…..
As you can imagine, Just Enough homers are the most volatile year-to-year because they’re so close to the fence. As Rybarczyk chronicled at ESPN’s TMI blog, players who’ve hit 30 total homers in a season with at least 40% of them qualifying as Just Enoughs have seen their homer totals fall 23% on average the next season. That’s a problem for Swisher and the Yankees, because he led the American League with 14 Just Enough homers, 48.3% of his total big flies.
This isn’t the first time Swisher has been in the Just Enough danger zone either. His 14 Just Enoughs were second in the league back in 2006, exactly 40% of the career-high 35 homers he hit for the A’s. What happened in 2007? Swish regressed back to just six Just Enoughs and 22 total homers, a 37.1% drop. This isn’t to say Swisher is guaranteed to see a drop off in his homerun – and thus overall offensive – production in 2010, but it’s not looking good.

Basically, Swisher’s knack for sneaking balls over the wall last year may have overinflated his home run totals to an unsustainable level. As such, it would not be surprising to see him back around 20-25 home runs, rather than increasing past 30 as he enters his prime.

Now, stating that Swisher will lose production in the walk and home run categories sounds like pretty bad news for a three true outcomes (HR, BB, K) type player. That said, neither study sees Swish losing enough in either category to sap him of his effectiveness, and you could make the argument that a player at his age is likely to improve. Furthermore, Swisher was terrible at home last year, which is something that is uncharacteristic for players in general and Swisher in particular. While he is unlikely to repeat his road performance, the room for improvement at home should overcompensate for any loss of effectiveness on the road. In all, I expect Swisher to be very similar in 2010 to what he was in 2009, but would not be surprised to see a modicum of regression in terms of walks and power.

Yesterday in the comments of Chris’s article on Brian Cashman and Kei Igawa, a discussion about whom the Yankees have traded in the past two seasons started. I’m of the opinion that with a few exceptions, the players Brian Cashman has traded have been nothing incredibly special and losing them will not hurt the team in the long term. So, let’s take a look at the last year and a half or so of Brian Cashman’s trades to see what the Yankees gave up.

Let’s start with the “deadline” deal of Ross Ohlendorf, Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, and Daniel McCutchen for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. What did the Yankees give up here? With the exception of Tabata, nothing special. Though Ohlendorf pitched well for the Pirates in 2009, he would not have played a big role for the 2009 Yankees and likely would have had just as small a role for the 2010 Yankees. Karstens did poorly in 39 games–13 starts–with the Bucs. McCutchen held his own (98 ERA+) and showed decent control (2.97 BB/9) in ‘09, but like the other two pitchers in this deal, he’d have no real place on the Yankees moving forward. There are plenty of guys ahead of him.

Jose Tabata was really the only player of consequence the Yankees forfeited in this deal with the Pirates. At the time of the trade, his OPS in the Eastern League was a meager .630. He raked once joining Altoona (.964), but 2009 was less spectacular (.763 OPS between AA and AAA). In a system that’s hurting for position player prospects, losing Tabata hurt, but Jose’s production had dropped year to year and level to level with the Yankees and there were apparently character issues. Perhaps all he needed was a change of scenery. It’s worth noting that Tabata’s star has taken a bit of a hit in recent years; he was rated the 27th best prospect in baseball pre-2007, the #37 pre-2008, and the #75 pre-2009.

The next trade of any importance was the December 2008 trade fleecing of Kenny Williams in the Nick Swisher deal. Cashman traded away Jeff Marquez–who’d seemingly stalled in his development and subsequently bombed with the Sox AAA team in 2009–Wilson Betemit–who was eventually DFA’d–and Jhonny Nunez who did poorly in a 5.2 inning stint with the Sox, but performed very well in the minors. This deal was absolutely great for the Yankees. They bought low on a very good cost controlled player and payed an incredibly small price.

In February of last year, Cashman traded Chase Wright to the Brewers for Eric Fryer; Fryer was eventually included with Casey Erickson in a deal for Eric Hinske. While Hinske didn’t have a huge impact on the Yankees, he added much more than either player would have now, or in the future. It’s also worth noting that the Pirates paid for Hinske’s time with the Yankees.

In other relatively minor trades, Cashman traded Chase Weems to the Reds for Jerry Hairston, Jr., who proved useful off the bench down the stretch and in the playoffs. Again, what Hairston added last year was more than Weems would likely add in the future. Weems would have been stuck behind any number of Yankee catching prospects and it’s likely that he’d never even make the Major League team.

For literally nothing but money, Brian acquired Chad Gaudin, who could be useful as a swingman out of the bullpen in 2010.

A brief review: so far out of these trades, the only remotely useful piece given up was Jose Tabata, and he was likely still at least a year and a half away from being in the Majors at the time of his trade.

The trades of which we’re unsure are the ones made in this offseason. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t judge them now.

The first trade made in 2010 was trading Brian Bruney to the Nationals for a player to be named later, Jamie Hoffmann. It appears that the Yankees grew tired of giving the oft-injured and inconsistent Bruney second chances and tried to turn him into a useful bench piece. If Hoffmann doesn’t make the team and must be returned to the Dodgers, as he’s a Rule V pick, then this trade looks a little worse. If he does stick with the team, this trade looks about equal: marginal piece for marginal piece.

This post is running a bit long and the other, more “major” players traded early in 2010 require a separate post that I’ll put up tomorrow. That one will feature my thoughts on Phil Coke, Mike Dunn, Melky Cabrera, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Kennedy, and Austin Jackson.

Yesterday, Joe Girardi discussed a few things with Mike Francesa (H/T to Steve for this). I’ll briefly run through the points General Joe made and my reactions to them:

1. Nick Johnson will bat second.
This is something with which I whole-heartedly agree (and Moshe does, too). Johnson at the top of the order will give Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez yet another man to drive in. While Johnson may not be the fleetest of foot out there, the important thing is being on base. In fact, in 2009, Johnson scored 11 times from second base when a single was hit. In the same situation, Curtis Granderson scored five times. I wouldn’t worry too much about Johnson “clogging the bases”.

2. Curtis Granderson is going to play center field.
Though I ran the numbers, way back on my second day at TYU, and they came out saying Granderson in left and Gardner in center would be better numerically, I don’t have a problem with this. If Granderson really has issues defensively, he can be moved. No matter what position he’s at, Granderson’s bat will play, and he’s still likely to be a good defender in center. Regardless, Gardner-Granderson-Swisher will be fine offensively and will be one of the best defensively.

3. Cano will hit fifth to avoid “stacking lefties” (5-9: Cano, Posada, Granderson, Swisher, Gardner).
I’m rather surprised by this, actually. I thought for sure Jorge would’ve been the five place hitter. Frankly, though, it doesn’t matter. The reality is that the 5-8 guys listed above could all bat at any of those spots (and some of them could bat higher) and this “problem” just speaks to how strong and “circular” the Yankee lineup is. Cano’s power should play well in the five spot and having a lot of guys on in front of him–from Jeter through A-Rod–should help correct his problems with runners on.

4. Girardi believes Cano’s struggles w/RISP are sample size issues.
I agree. Cano’s eventually going to hit like he normally does when there are runners in scoring position. Perhaps “forcing” the issue by putting him higher in the order will correct this issue. As long as Robbie puts up numbers like he did in ‘05-’07 and ‘09, I’ll be happy.

5. Posada will catch 100-120 games.
He caught 111 games last season, and that was with a hamstring issue, so he could do that again this year. At his age, though, catching that many games may be wishful thinking. If it happens, though, the Yankees are in great, great shape. An additional note, Girardi added that Johnson will primarily DH (see below) and on days that Posada sits, Johnson will still DH. This is clearly aimed at keeping Jorge healthy.

6. Nick Johnson will play 1B 2-3 times a month, spelling Tex, who will DH on those days.
This, too, surprises me. While it’s nice to give Tex a little break, I’m not sure if it’s necessary. Johnson’s generally been a strong fielder, though, so it can’t hurt–unless, of course, Nick gets hurt.

7. Granderson plays every day.
Yes. 100% yes. The only way Curtis can work through his problems against left handers is to face them as much as possible and get as many reps as he can. Obviously, if there isn’t progress by May or June, it’s time to scrap that plan. I have faith, though, in Granderson and Kevin Long to fix the problem and make Curtis even better than he is.

John Walsh of THT did an interesting study recently in which he looked at trends in OBP at the leadoff spot over time. What he found was a bit strange:

As the data shows, teams have been placing players with below average on-base skills in the leadoff spot for much of the last decade. This exhibits a failure to properly optimize the lineup, as it tends to result in fewer runners being on base for a club’s big hitters. Joe Pawlikowski at RAB touched on the issue of optimizing the top of the lineup yesterday in explaining why Nick Johnson should hit second:

To illustrate this point, let’s take an ideal scenario. Jeter and Johnson both hit in front of Teixeira for all of Teixeira’s plate appearances, and they OBP somewhere around their 2009 totals, .400 and .420. Running a quick percentage check, this means that Teixeira would come to bat with both runners on 16.8 percent of the time, and at least one runner on about 65 percent of the time. Given Teixeira’s 707 plate appearances from 2009, that means he’d come to bat with at least one runner on 460 times, and two runners on 119 times…..

Last year, with Jeter’s .400 OBP and Damon’s .365, Teixeira had a 14.6 percent chance of coming to the plate with both runners on, or 62 percent with at least one runner on…..If Granderson recovers to his 2008 form, he’s essentially a clone of Damon. While that’s good, and while he’ll be able to take extra bases that Johnson will not, I think that the added plate appearances give the Yankees a bigger advantage. It means more opportunities for Tex and A-Rod.

To sum up, Johnson batting second means more opportunities with runners on for Teixeira and Rodriguez. The Yankees need to keep this in mind and avoid the problem Walsh discusses in his study, whereby teams are placing fast players who do not reach base frequently in lineup slots ahead of their big boppers. Rather, they should stack as many high-OBP players in front of Tex and A-Rod as possible. In fact, Dave Pinto suggested that the Yankees should consider batting Johnson 9th as a second leadoff man. This would allow Johnson and Jeter to reach base for power hitters such as Granderson (who would hit second), Tex, and A-Rod. A similar option would be to put Nick Swisher or Granderson 9th and keeping Johnson at #2, which might be a good way to further optimize the lineup and provide as many opportunities as possible for the middle of the order hitters to bat with men on base.

How would you optimize the lineup?

In today’s Daily News (TYU fave) Mark Feinsand discusses the adjustment period Nick Swisher went through last April as a Yankee, and how he and a member of the ‘old guard’ learned how to coexist and move forward. He writes:

Swisher, who had rolled the ball into the dugout to preserve his first career K, was doing what he always does – trying to make the best out of a bad situation.

“I had fun with it,” Swisher said that night. “When am I ever going to have the chance to do that again? Probably never.”

Some of his teammates were irritated by the yuks coming from across the room, none more than Jorge Posada, who told reporters, “Nobody was laughing.”

Instead of letting things fester, Swisher approached the catcher the next day to discuss the situation.

“I think the majority of the guys thought it was a little funny, but more than anything, that loss made us think, ‘We don’t like that feeling,’” Swisher, 29, said. “I know Jorge was upset about it, but he’s an intense competitor, and no one wants to take that intensity away from him. We got thumped 15-5, but why would you want to look at it in a negative light?”

The two players talked it out, and by the time they were finished, the incident was a thing of the past. Crisis averted.

“I told him, ‘Don’t lose respect for yourself and for everybody else. I know you were having fun – and we were having fun with you – but when the game is over, you’ve got to knock it off,’” Posada said. “We got our butts handed to us. He understood. He came over, we talked and that was it. I have no problems with the way he handles everything. I love the guy.”

Both players have a point here. You need to have some fun to get through a 162 game season, but at the same time you don’t want to have guys who don’t care if the team wins or loses, the party rolls on. In the latter Torre years, the Yanks had a reputation for being too buttoned up, too serious, and it was one of the reasons CC Sabathia had hesitation in signing here.  Yankee GM Brian Cashman was well aware of this perception, and at the WFAN Breakfast he stated that it was one of the things he set out to change with the acquisitions of Swisher, Sabathia and Burnett. Nice to see these two were able to works things out, in private.

Last season, with regards to defense, Nick Swisher was worth 0.8 runs below average in right field, according to his Ultimate Zone Rating. This mark would actually surprise many Yankee fans, particularly those who are not defensive metric wonks, as there seemed to be a prevailing perception in such circles that Swisher was an awful outfielder. Statistically speaking though, that was far from the truth a season ago and has never really been true historically. Over the course of his career, from Oakland to Chicago, Swisher has been a consistently average corner outfield defender with shades of above averageness. Despite a few strange routes to fly balls that birthed a sense of a fielding ineptitude, 2009 was not a deviation from that assessment. All in all, he was really a decent outfielder.

With that cleared up, digging a bit deeper into Swisher’s UZR, so as to better understand the number’s meaning, I turn to a Swisher UZR Chart – you can read my writeup on UZR Charts here – that illustrates the three components of FanGraphs’ Ultimate Zone Ratings (for outfielders), range runs (RngR), arm runs (ARM), and error runs (ErrR).

As you can see from the chart, in 2009, Swisher’s biggest strength was his range (blue bar), at 4.3 runs above average, the fifth best rating amongst right fielders in either league, yet it was entirely negated by his foremost flaw, his arm (green bar). Swisher’s arm value, pegged at 4.6 runs below average – almost half a win – was the worst mark in the American League and the third worst in baseball (only Brad Hawpe and Andre Ethier were worse). He and Johnny Damon, who was 4.2 runs below average, were very similar in terms of arm awfulness (now that’s saying something). Swisher’s UZR (red bar) of -0.8 is, essentially, a measure of conflict between range runs and arm runs.

From what we saw last season, earlier in the year, Swisher often threw balls in recklessly, which resulted in errant overthrows. His arm strength seemed average, with accuracy being the main issue. He and the Yankees recognized the problem, and worked to resolve it in the latter half of the season. Though I am not privy to any month-by-month UZR figures – I don’t know if those exist, actually – speaking subjectively, Swisher’s throwing noticeably improved as the year wore on. Hopefully the improvements made will carry over into the upcoming regular season. If they do, then Swisher has a chance to be referred to as one of the best right fielders in the game (this notion is based not only on last year’s UZR data, but on the previous years, as well). It might sound like a stretch, but it is possible (he’s close).

His range is definitely there, and the pendulum doesn’t swing very far in either direction, good or bad, with regards to error runs (yellow bar), so, correcting the arm runs issue will be his biggest defensive challenge in 2010.

Note – Swisher’s UZR on FanGraphs actually reads as -0.7, however, when you add his RngR, ARM, and ErrR, you get -0.8. I figured it was just a rounding issue, but to preclude confusion, I discuss it as -0.8, not -0.7. I only do this because it is but a fraction of a run.

Photo by Reuters

Earlier this week, Moshe asked readers what kind of a deal they’d give to Carl Crawford. Obviously, it’s a fair question. He plays left field and, unless Brett Gardner totally blossoms this year, the Yankees may need a stronger left fielder next season. Extension talks between Crawford and the Rays have apparently stalled, so the likelihood of Crawford hitting free agency seems bigger now than it did even just a few days ago.

Let’s turn our heads from Crawford, though, and shift them to a somewhat familiar foe: Jayson Werth.

I briefly profiled Jayson before the World Series when I was back at Bronx Baseball Daily and he, like Crawford, is in the final year of his contract.

The definition of a late bloomer, Werth has flourished in his age 28-30 seasons with the Phillies. Since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love, Werth has been a .276/.376/.494/.870 hitter. His power is impressive, as marked by his .218 IsoP for the Phillies, and his speed is great too. In his time with the Phils, Werth has stolen 47 bases while being caught only five times (90% success rate). He’s played all three outfield positions (mostly right field) and has been worth 13.6 WAR over the last three seasons, which is a mark 2.3 wins higher than Crawford over the same time.

When thinking of Jayson Werth’s style of play, think of Nick Swisher. He’s not going to hit for a very high average (career: .265, last three years: .276) but he’s going to walk a lot (12.2% career walk rate) and hit for a lot of power (see the aforementioned .218 IsoP). Like Swisher, though, he does tend to strike out a lot: 29.5% for his career (Swisher: 25.5%).

On paper (spreadsheets perhaps?), Werth would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. He fits their power and patience scheme well and can play both corner outfield spots very well.

There are, however, some caveats.

The first is Werth’s age. Jayson will turn 31 in May, so he’s exiting the age-based prime for players. Secondly, Werth is likely to look for a big deal. While he’s been underrated for the past few years, his stock is rising and his star is shining a little more brightly these days. He’s going to make $7MM this season and if he has another strong season, he’ll definitely want a big raise. The third caveat really doesn’t even depend on Werth. If the Yankees do indeed change things up and put Brett Gardner in center and Curtis Granderson in left (however unlikely) and they’re both successful in their new roles, there will be no need for the Yankees to sign a left fielder.

As with most potential free agent signings, my concern is not with the money (the Yankees will likely not have much trouble in terms of being able to afford a player), but with the years. For Crawford, I’d like a short term deal because I’m not sure how the legs of a speed/defense guy are going to hold up. For Werth, I’d like a short deal because he’s older. His age doesn’t mean he will decline, but it is more likely than it is in a younger player.

We should keep a close eye on Crawford and Werth this year. If they hit free agency, they’re likely to be targets for the Yankees. Both players would be great additions and if Crawford becomes too pricey, Werth could be a good alternative.

Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.

1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.

2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.

3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.

4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.

5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.

6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.

7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.

8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.

9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.

10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.

11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.

12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.

13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.

14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.

15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.

16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.

17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.

18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.

19. BP or SWB: See above.

20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.

21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.

22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.

23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.

24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.

25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.

So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.

We authors here at TYU all seem to bring something different to the proverbial table. Moshe grinds out meaningful posts that are well developed and thought provoking. E.J. does the prospect thing. Steve likes to touch on the “hot button” issues of Yankee-land. Chris and I delve into a more analytical realm. Of course, we all reach across “genres” and touch on all of these things. Like we who write about them, each of the Yankee hitters brings his own special skills to the plate and the field.

Jorge Posada

Let’s kick it off with the man behind the plate: Jorge Posada. It’s my contention that Jorge is one of the most underrated players of the last twenty years. His offense out of the catcher’s spot has been both consistent and at a high level for 15 years and aside from Mike Piazza, he has been the finest offensive catcher in the game (Joe Mauer will take this title shortly, but Posada’s done it for a long time). Anyway, that’s enough gushing. Jorge’s value, like many Yankees, comes from patience and power. His .277 average is quite average, but his .379 OBP is more than solid and his .480 SLG is good for anyone, let a lone a catcher.

Mark Teixeira

It’s hard to think of something Mark doesn’t do well. He plays solid defense. He’s a good contact hitter (.290 career batting average). He’s patient at the plate (.373 career OBP, 80 walks per 162 games). He’s got great power (.545 SLG, .255 IsoP, 80 XBH per 162). Basically, Tex is arguably the most well-rounded player on the Yankees. Teixeira brings value to the team in a big variety of ways and I speak for all Yankee fans when I say I’m incredibly happy he is on the team.

Robinson Cano

Robbie Cano is a player with incredible talent, and is probably the third best second baseman in baseball–I give Pedroia the edge over Cano because Rogaine’s defense is better–but there are hols in his game. His defense is flashy at times, but awful at others. His lack of on base skills is also a bit frustrating (.033 IsoD, 4.2% BB%, average is around 9%). Cano, however, does two things very well: he hits for average (.306 career BA, 11.7 career K%, league average is about 20%) and hit for power (.480 career SLG, .173 IsoP, league average is about .155). If you’re looking for a patient hitter to work walks, Cano isn’t your guy. However, if you’re looking for a guy who’s gonna make a lot of contact and hit the ball real hard when he does make contact, look no further than Robbie.

Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod is like Tex. He does everything well. He may strike out a bit, 130 per 162, but he still hits for a high average at .302, gets on base at a .390 clip (.401 since joining the Yankees). Alex mashes the ball, with a career .576 SLG and .204 IsoP, with a 162 game average of 79 XBH, and 583 home runs in his career. Alex’s defense has taken a down turn in the last few years, but his offense cannot be overlooked. He’s one of the top hitters in the game and it’s quite clear from where his value comes.

Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter is the more patient, but slightly less powerful, version of Robinson Cano. His defense is so-so (though it was sparkling in ‘09), but his offense, especially relative to his position, is dreamy. A career .317/.388/.459 hitter, the Captain is good for around 200 hits and 70 walks per season. Like Teixeira and Rodriguez–but with lesser power and more contact–Jeter does everything well.

Brett Gardner

In a word: speed. Gardner’s speed is what will give him value to the team in 2010 and beyond. His on-base skills were very good in the minors, but they haven’t been great at the major league level. If he can keep his OBP where he kept it last year–between .340 and .350–then his speed will be incredibly valuable because he’ll be on base enough for his steals to matter. His lack of power, though, makes it seem possible that pitchers will simply challenge Brett and not allow him to reach via the walk.

Curtis Granderson

Curtis’s best feature is his power. His career slugging percentage is .484 and his IsoP is .212. Curtis does have a bit of a hole in his swing–149 strikeouts per 162–but he walks at a decent clip: .344 OBP, 67 BBs/162, 9.5% career BB%. If Curtis’s BABIP can rebound (.321 career, .275 in ‘09), and he continues to hit for power and walk at an average rate, Curtis’s offense will be quite valuable in 2010.

Nick Swisher

Disclaimer: I love Nick Swisher. Anyway, whenever discussing Nick Swisher–or players like him–with casual fans, I lead off with this: if you like players that hit for high batting averages, Nick Swisher is not gonna be a guy you like. Nick is never going to hit .300. What Nick is going to do, however, is still valuable: he walks a lot and he hits for a lot of power. Swisher’s career BA is a lowly .245 but his career on base percentage is .357 and his career slugging percentage is .460. That means an IsoD of .112 and an IsoP of .216; those are excellent marks. Swisher’s value comes from his patience and his power.

Nick Johnson

Last but not least is new-old- friend Nick Johnson. Johnson is like the “lite” version” of Swisher: he hits for more contact, .273 as opposed to Swish’s .245, but he also hits for less power: .447 and an IsoP of .174. However, Johnson’s on base skills are supreme: .402 career OBP, 15.6% walk rate, 0.93 BB/K. Out of the two hole, Johnson’s skill set will be invaluable in 2010. Not only will his hits move Derek Jeter around, but his walks will set up more RBI opportunities for the big boppers behind him.

In 2009, the Yankees got a good “rebound” seasons from a few different players.

Jorge Posada missed plenty of time in 2008, but recovered to have the fourth highest OPS+ of his career.

Derek Jeter was bothered by a hand injury for a good portion of 2008 and added 100 points to his OPS.

Hideki Mastui also saw a big jump in his OPS, 81 points.

Finally, Nick Swisher rebounded in the biggest way. 2008 was a career worst for Swisher, whereas 2009 was arguably a career best and the same goes for second baseman Robinson Cano.

In 2010, it’s fair to wonder if these same players will have years like they did in 2009. The team is also hoping for a bit of a “bounceback” year from Curtis Gradnerson; though he hit a career high 30 home runs, he had a career low OBP and the second lowest SLG of his career. Randy Winn had a career worst year, especially against LHP, but his role is much smaller so his rebound is less necessary. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen.

Let’s start with Winn. In an article I wrote right after Winn was signed, I listed his wOBA and wRC+ totals from 2002-2009:

.360/124
.342/114
.339/110
.367/129
.311/86
.350/112
.351/115
.302/82

I’ll repeat what I said then: 2009 and 2006 seem to be outliers. While Winn will likely be a bench player, if he can rebound to what he’s generally been for the last eight years–an average player–he will be a valuable substitute player. Winn’s rebound will not have to be a huge one, especially considering his “diminished” role (yes, I know, I’m a broken record with this), for his 2010 to be successful.

Staying with the new guys, let’s look at Curtis Granderson. As we saw in Moshe’s post about interesting hitting splits, Granderson should benefit from playing in Yankee Stadium. Playing 81 games in a park that’s quite inviting for lefty power hitters should definitely help Curtis in 2010.

Javy Vazquez had his best year ever in 2009, and moving to the A.L. East, he probably won’t be that good again. 2003-2009 showed an interesting trend ERA+ wise for Vazquez. In the odd numbered years–’03, ‘05, and ‘07–he had ERA+ marks of at least 100. In the even numbered years–’04, ‘06, and ‘08–he had ERA+ numbers below 100. Hopefully, he bucks that trend in 2010; I’m optimistic and think he can do that, but some regression from 2009 would be understandable, considering just how good ‘09 was. Regardless, 2010 is different for Vazquez. This season, he will not be counted on to head a rotation. When the season starts, he’ll likely be the fourth starter. If Vazquez can do what he’s done every year since 2000–pitch at least 190 innings and strike out at least 175 batters–he’ll be incredibly valuable for the Yankees, making the trade look even better.

Moving to the “incumbent” Yankees, let’s start in the infield. Robinson Cano’s 2009 looked a lot more like his career than 2008 did. Like Swisher, 2009 was the rule and 2008 was the exception. I expect both of these guys to hit at a high level again. Swisher may not slug .498 again, but he’s sure as hell not going to slug as low as the .410 he did in 2008. The only thing that scares me with Cano is that if the hits aren’t falling–like in the first half of 2008–he’s essentially neutralized as a player. His on base skills are still iffy and if his line drives aren’t turning into hits, Cano will have big problems. Granted, this is true of literally everyone. However, with players like Nick Swisher, who have very good on base skills, it’s a lot less troubling.

Though they’ve had sustained success for longest of this group, there is a good argument to be made that the pair of Jeter and Posada is the least likely to repeat its 2009 performance. This isn’t because they aren’t good hitters, they are (they’re two of the best in the league at their respective positions); it’s because they’re the oldest and it’s because they play the most physically demanding positions (non-starting pitcher division). I don’t think Jeter’s going to be as mediocre as he was in 2008 and I don’t think Posada will be as punch-less (.411 SLG) as he was in 2008. However, it’s highly unlikely for us to expect them both to put up 130 and higher OPS+’s.