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Elias and the Yankees

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Aug 232010

MLBTR came out with some updated Elias Free Agent Rankings yesterday, so I thought I’d scan the list for Yankee free agents and see whether or not I’d offer that guy arbitration.

The first to come up is under the 1B/DH/OF category: Lance Berkman. Right now, he profiles as a Type B free agent, meaning the Yankees would receive a supplemental round draft pick if they offered Fat Elvis arbitration and he rejected.

Berkman’s salary this season will come in at $14.5M and he has a $15M option for 2011, which the Yankees will obviously not pick up; instead, I think they’ll opt for the $2M buyout. This one is pretty obvious: there’s no way in hell the Yankees offer arbitration to Lance Berkman. His salary is way too high and he’s strictly a rental for this season. The market for a player like Berkman will likely be incredibly small. This one’s a no brainer.

In the same category is Austin Kearns, who does not have a type attached to him. This is another no brainer: they will not offer Kearns arbitration, either. That doesn’t mean they won’t attempt to bring him back, but there’s no real reward for offering him arbitration. It is worth noting that Kearns is only making $750,000 this season so any raise he’d get in arbitration wouldn’t be huge. However, I don’t think he’d accept and if he rejects, the Yankees get nothing. I’d like to see him back with the team next year as the fourth OF, but if he finishes 2010 strongly, he could be off for greener pastures and a starting gig.

Nick Johnson profiles as a Type B, but he has an option to get through. That option won’t be picked up. It sucks that Nick’s second go ’round with the Yankees couldn’t have been more productive, but them’s the breaks, as they say.

Marcus Thames, like Kearns, has no type so there is no upside to offering arbitration. Thanks for doing a job, Marcus. Maybe there’s a bench spot for you again next year.

Staying in the position player vein, there’s Derek Jeter (Type A). In my perfect world, the Yankees offer Derek Jeter arbitration, he accepts, and is paid a whole lot for just one year, and the Yankees and Jeter go year to year after that. Back in the real world, though, that’s not going to happen. Many would see offering Jeter arbitration disrespectful, which is an angle I can sort of see, but don’t necessarily agree with. Still, maybe they’ll do it just-in-case. Imagine the impossible scenario in which Jeter ends up leaving, and the Yankees don’t even get draft pick compensation. None of that is going to happen, though.

Andy Pettitte is also a Type A, but we know with Andy it’s either the Yankees or retirement. Again, I doubt the Yankees would offer him arbitration. Like they’ve been doing, they’ll either see Andy off into retirement or continue their year to year arrangement with him.

Javier Vazquez is likely to qualify as a Type A free agent but at this point, there is no way the Yankees can or should offer Vazquez arbitration. Vazquez is really a double edged sword here. If they let him go without offering him arbitration, the organization will be second guessed since they won’t get draft picks. If they do offer him arbitration, he’d likely accept since the market for him will be small. The market for durable pitchers is always big, but the inconsistency Vazquez has displayed–along with the drop in velocity and the miles on his arm–is likely to scare teams away. He’s making a lot of money, too, so I don’t think Vazquez will be offered arbitration.

Rounding out the list is Kerry Wood who won’t be offered arbitration–nor should he be as his salary is rather large. Again, this isn’t to say I don’t want him back on the Yankees, but there’s no way he should be offered arbitration.

Picture Credit: Hollywood-North.net

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Second Half Things I've Liked and Disliked

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Aug 122010

I don’t like that…

–Nick Swisher, not including last night’s game which is still going on, has a walk rate under 6% in the second half and has walked just six times. That ~8% jump in O-Swing% may be starting to catch up with him.

–Brett Gardner has a .501 OPS in the second half. That’s just icky. As Steve pointed out in the RAB comments last night, that could be a hangover effect from the thumb injury.

–Alex Rodriguez’s OBP in the second half is .306. In a similar vein, Curtis Granderson’s is .298.

–Phil Hughes has had just two quality starts since the All-Star Break. He’s also averaged almost 19 pitches per inning in that time.

–CC Sabathia has a 1.629 WHIP in the second half.

–This is an all year thing, but it’s funny anyway: in 148 more plate appearances, Francisco Cervelli has five fewer walks than Nick Johnson.

Now, let’s go to things that I like…

–Despite the low OBPs, both Granderson and Rodriguez have IsoPs around .200 in the second half.

–Robinson Cano has a .975 OPS in the second half.

–Robinson Cano’s non-last night-inclusive second half non intentional walk rate is 10.10. With IBBs, it’s up to 14.14. Love this so much.

–Mark Teixeira has a 1.038 OPS in the second half, including a .118 IsoD and a .368 IsoP.

–Kerry Wood, not including last night, has seven strikeouts in 4.1 innings.

–Jesus Montero’s July and August wOBAs: .442 and .568. Haha. Wow.

Any oddities/factoids you guys have noticed? Please share.

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Avoiding Revisionist History

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 12 Responses »
Aug 122010

Yes, this is going to be another post about the Curtis Granderson trade. I don’t yet know what the lineup will look like tonight, but Granderson did not start the past few nights against left handed pitchers. We’ve also gotten news that Granderson and hitting coach Kevin Long will work to completely reform the former’s swing. As I started writing this, Javy Vazquez exited the game after giving up six runs. Nick Johnson, of course, is injured and hasn’t played in quite some time. Still, we must do our best to avoid revisionist history and dump this all on Brian Cashman.

I’ll start with the Granderson trade. Phil Coke is doing well, as is Austin Jackson, though he’s cooled off of late; the same goes for Ian Kennedy. We’ve discussed this trade a lot here recently and it’s not looking great for the Yankees. Despite that, we can’t just “reverse” the trade. For the Yankees, Phil Coke would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen. Ian Kennedy likely would’ve started the year in AAA and the same goes for Austin Jackson. It would be fallacious of us to assume that Coke, Jackson, and Kennedy would’ve performed the same as Yankees. It doesn’t look great now, but by next year, I think this trade will look a lot better for the Yankees.

Nick Johnson for DH instead of Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui is still something I would’ve done. Damon was asking for too much and Hideki jumped on what he thought was the best offer he’d get (he’s not exactly raking right now either).

And finally, we come to the Javier Vazquez trade. Anyone who wouldn’t do this trade in a cocaine heartbeat is just nuts. The Yankees traded a fourth outfielder, a future LOOGY, and a (promising but still way off) young pitcher to get Vazquez. Melky Cabrera’s wOBA right now is .308. Arodys Vizcaino is injured. Mike Dunn has thrown just 6.2 innings and has more walks (9) than strikeouts (6). There’s no reason to be miffed at this trade.

Things may not be going perfectly for the Yankee winter acquisitions but those moves were good moves at the time and the one long term move–the Granderson trade–still has time to play out. While it might be tempting, we can’t, nor should we, call these moves instant losses any time the players involved don’t perform.

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Grading the Yankees

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Jul 162010

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News ran a piece today in which he graded the Yankees. I’m going to tell you which ones I agree and disagree with.

Let’s just get the ones I agree with out of the way. I agree with Mo’s, Andy’s, Gardner’s, CC’s, Marte’s, Rodriguez’s, Thames’s, Vazquez’s, Burnett’s, Tex’s, Robertson’s, and Joba’s. I agree with the first four because they’re having great seasons. With Gardner, he’s exceeding expectations. Marte’s doing his job, as is Thames; A-Rod is doing okay considering his possibly health scenario, but he could be better, the same goes for Tex even with a recent hot streak. Burnett and Javy have been up and down, as have Robertson and Joba. Lastly, I agree with Derek Jeter. I was going to knock him down a bit ’cause of his lack of hitting–it’d be nice to see more patience and power–but his fielding has stayed hot. Anyway, onto the fun part: the disagreements.

I disagree with Phil Hughes’ ranking of an A-. He started off hot, but has cooled off a bit. Plus, his general lack of mixing pitches knocks him down to a B in my eyes. He’s doing well, but we need to recognize his flaws, too.

Cano and Swisher should both get A’s. Cano hit out of his mind for most of the first half and Nick Swisher’s commitment to improving himself as a batter should get him kudos. There’s chance for both of them to drop back down a bit in the second half, but they’re both talented enough to compensate.

I’m bumping Jorge up to a B. He’s hit quite well, but he has had injuries. Maybe I should keep him at a B-. But, it’s worth noting that among catchers with at least 100 PA in the AL, Posada’s .369 wOBA ranks second in the league to uber-rookie Carlos Santana’s .428 mark.

I include Nick Johnson, Sergio Mitre, and Alfredo Aceves in the “incomplete” category. Moving on…

I think Francisco Cervelli should be busted down to a C+. I’ll give him credit for his hot streak and for playing more than he’d been expected to, but he hasn’t hit for almost two months and his defense hasn’t been as great as it was last year.

Ramiro Pena is a C at best. His fielding has been okay, but his hitting is just non existent.

Curtis Granderson’s C- is harsh, so I’ll give him a C. The results haven’t been what I’d wanted, but I think that injury really tripped him up. I’ll be an easy grader for this one.

Chad Gaudin needs a D. He’s done barely anything useful this season.

And, wrapping it up, Chan Ho Park should be the lone “F” on the team. He’s really been a sunken cost this year.

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Who Hits 'Em Farthest?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jul 082010

I’ve written about trade stuff a lot lately, including the last two days, and as there are no concrete rumors (oxy moron?) in MLB right now and I’m writing these posts before the 10 PM games to get myself some extra sleep, so I thought I’d focus on something else on field: how far the Yankees hit their home runs.

I’ve touched on this before, but that was way back in the beginning of the year before any team had a lot of homers. Going into last night’s game against Oakland, the Yankees had 93 homers, good for third in the American League. So, let’s look at all 93 of those homers and see who really gets the best of the ball when he takes it over the fences for some FIP destruction!

Curtis Granderson still owns the longest home run, with 455 feet of true distance. That came in his first PA as a Yankee, off of Josh Beckett in the second inning of Opening Night. Alex Rodriguez checks in at the number two and three spots with two blasts of 452 feet; Robinson Cano is fourth with a 451 foot bomb off of Jamie Moyer, and Jorge Posada’s 443 foot shot off of Randy Choate rounds out the top five.

The shortest Yankee homer this year has come off the bat of Mark Teixeira, who hit a 321 footer off of Roy Halladay.

Let’s get to the averages:

Cano: 396.4′
Gardner: 381.2′
Granderson: 402.3′
Jeter: 393.0′
Johnson: 416′ (only two homers)
Miranda: 390′ (only two homers)
Posada: 398.7′
Rodriguez: 402.4′
Swisher: 401.9′
Teixeira: 392.6′
Thames: 388.5′ (only two homers)
Winn: 419′ (only one homer)

So, among guys with at least three homers, Alex Rodriguez just edges out Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher in the longest average home run department. If this was shocking to you, well, no, I’m not going to insult any of you; you all knew how this would end! Not surprisingly, Brett Gardner’s five homers average the shortest. The way his swing works, it’s rare for him to get a homer in the first place, let alone hit it far. Gardner has, however, had two no doubt homers.

Despite that lead in longest average homer, Rodriguez doesn’t lead the team in no doubt home runs. That honor goes to Nick Swisher, who has five.

Going forward, I expect few changes to this leaderboard. If Tex hits a groove, though, he could take second place from Curtis Granderson.

While longer homers don’t put anymore runs on the board (unless you’re playing Wiffle Ball at my house–if you can manage to hit the road that’s about 15 feet back from the HR “wall” you automatically get a grand slam), they sure are fun to watch. Hopefully, the Yankees can keep cranking out majestic shots for us to marvel at.

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Matt's Halfway Point Reflection

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jul 072010

Yesterday, Steve posted his thoughts on the Yankee first half, so I thought I’d follow suit.

In general, the team has done very well. They’ve got the best record in baseball as of now and this comes despite some injuries and general inconsistency. Despite injuries to their Opening Day DH, Nick Johnson, and CF, Curtis Granderson (not to mention a 15 day DL stint by Jorge Posada), the Yankees feature one of the best offenses in all of baseball. This also comes with under performance from sluggers Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez (who’ve been hot of late). Robinson Cano, Nick Swisher, and Brett Gardner have all hit very well, though, to make up for the slack from other players. Derek Jeter has struggled with consistency as well, but has also been hitting better lately. In terms of grading, I’d give the offense a A-. They’ve been inconsistent at times, but considering how many times they’ve had to miss player, they’ve done fantastically.

The starting rotation has been the most pleasant thing about this team. Though Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett struggled at different times, the other pitchers have been relatively consistent and when one has fallen, the others have picked him up. Phil Hughes has scuffled lately, but that’s to be expected from a young starter. Burnett had a solid start his last time out; Pettitte is pitching incredibly; CC is CC. All is right with the Yankee rotation. I give them a solid A.

The bullpen has been iffy at best, with only Mariano Rivera pitching well consistently. Damaso Marte has done well against lefties, too, but everyone else has been up and down. Like I mentioned in my post this morning, the Yankees could have help on the way in the person of Romulo Sanchez. Joba Chamberlain has been streaky, as has David Robertson. Sergio Mitre was pitching well before injury. Chad Gaudin has been ineffective and Chan Ho Park has been awful. I don’t think we’ll see those last two in pinstripes much longer. Bullpen grade? C.

Going forward, I think the Yankees could be scary good. If all the pitchers start clicking at the same time and the guys who can hit do the same, and the Yankees pull their usual second-half bullpen magic, this team could just steamroll others. With a team this good, I think we can be optimistic and say it’s more a matter if “when” they get rolling rather than “if” they get rolling. It’s been a fun 83 games thus far and I can’t wait for it to continue.

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No Johnson for the rest year?

Posted by Chris H. at 7:37 pm 2 Responses »
Jun 042010

Via Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated, we learn that the Yankees are currently unsure as to whether or not Nick Johnson, signed in the offseason to be the team’s DH, will return this season. This, of course, isn’t a surprise when you consider Johnson’s checkered health history. Heyman goes on to add that the Yankees will search for another hitter as a result, presumably one with on-base skills similar to the fragile Johnson. Echoing a recent Jayson Stark report, Heyman also names David DeJesus, a rumored trade target for several years now, as a possibility.

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Injury Updates

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 9:00 am 1 Response »
May 192010

Yesterday, Chad Jennings had some injury updates. Let’s take a look and see what we’ve got.

1. Jorge Posada hopes to be back in the lineup. That’s great news, as Posada’s bat makes the lineup that much more dangerous again. His 2010 line sits at .326/.406/.618/1.024, .441 wOBA, 180 wRC+. Posada coming back could mean either a night off for Frankie Cervelli or he could DH.

2. Alfredo Aceves will play catch tomorrow. That’s good news. His return to the bullpen will help a lot as the Yankees will have someone who can actually give length.

3. Curtis Granderson is taking swings and running pain free, which is fantastic. Like Posada’s, Granderson’s eventual return to the lineup recircularizes it. It will push Randy Winn back to the bench, though he’s hit well in May.

4. Nick Swisher hopes to be in the lineup tonight. It’s always nice to see Swish.

5. With Nick Johnson out, it appears that Juan Miranda will get regular starts at DH. I’ve got no problem with this, though I’d prefer another option.

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Nick Johnson to have surgery

Posted by Chris H. at 5:32 pm No Responses »
May 172010

According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Yankees’ designated hitter, Nick Johnson, will undergo surgery on his right wrist tomorrow, as the cortisone injection he recently received must not have done the trick. KR continues that the surgery will likely keep Johnson sidelined until July (it’s Johnson though, so he may very well experience a setback or two that could keep him out longer). I wish I could say this is surprising, but it’s not.

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Nick Johnson's On-DL%

Posted by Steve S. at 7:27 am 9 Responses »
May 142010

Didn't take long to find this one

When Nick Johnson signed with the Yanks this past off season, much was made about his keen batting eye and his robust .424 On-Base% from last year. Much was also made about the fact that he’s always hurt, and how much time he’s missed since becoming a MLB ‘regular’. Just to have a little fun, I wanted to calculate a new stat for Nick called ‘On-DL%’ which will compare how many games he was available to play in, and how many he actually did by dividing his number of games played by the total played by his team. This won’t be precise, it may include days off that all starting players will get, but we’ll just assume something was hurting Nick those days. I will include his minor league games in 2001 and 2002, since that was the beginning of his MLB career. But I’m not including minor league rehab games after that, because he was still lost to his MLB club at that time. Here goes:

Total Games played by Johnson 2001-2010-907

Total Games played by MLB club-1492

On-DL%- .392

Amazingly enough, his .392 On-DL% is almost identical to his career .401 OBP, displaying remarkable consistency across every facet of his game. Perhaps by year’s end he can get both to line up perfectly. He’s well on his way.

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