It’s become nearly axiomatic that the NFL is a league of parity and that MLB is a league dominated by a perpetual battle between the haves and have-nots.  Back of the envelope evidence for this usually includes a list of Super Bowl champions and the high variance in playoff teams in the NFL and the continued existence of the New York Yankees and lack of a salary cap in baseball.  And yet, in a quite lovely turn of events, baseball may be poised to temporarily silence its critics once October rolls around this season. Yes, Virginia, there is parity in baseball this year.

The National League is the parity advocate’s dream.  In 2009, the Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers and Rockies went to the playoffs.  This year, the picture is different.  In the NL East, the Phillies look likely to repeat as division champions, but behind them are the Atlanta Braves.  Despite dealing 2009 Cy Young contender Javier Vazquez to the Yankees, losing Chipper Jones to injury, dropping their payroll $13M and employing the services of one Melky Cabrera, the Braves have the best run differential in the National League and currently sit 3 games back of the Phillies and have a 2.5 game lead in the Wild Card.

Over in the In the NL West, there are three teams fighting for contention.  In first place are the San Francisco Giants who last made the playoffs in 2003.  Right behind them are the San Diego Padres.  The Padres last saw playoff action in 2006 and opened the season with an astoundingly low payroll of $37M.  Indeed, from the way you heard some tell it, the entire telos of the 2010 San Diego Padres was to scout the farm system of the Boston Red Sox in preparation for when sending Boston their star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.  No one expected that San Diego would be in a better playoff position than Boston for much of the year.  No one expected that the Padres should have been bigger buyers at the trade deadline than Boston.  Yet, despite spending some $130M less on payroll than the Red Sox this year, the Padres are right in contention for a playoff spot.  To get there, they have to fight off the Colorado Rockies, who seem to make a sport out of making late season runs at the playoffs.  The Rockies are attempting to return to the playoffs for the second consecutive year, and the third out of four years.

Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds top the NL Central.  The Reds aren’t exactly the cause célèbre of the media this year, even though Joey Votto has gotten his fair share of attention, but their story is compelling nonetheless.  This will be the Reds’ first trip to the playoffs since 1995 and they’ve gotten there by knocking off a Cardinals team with some of the best players in baseball in Wainwright, Carpenter and Pujols.  They’ve done it with homegrown stars of their own and with a little help from their big-money international free agent signing, Aroldis Chapman.

In the American League things are different too. Like the Phillies, the Yankees will return to the playoffs in 2010. However, either ahead of them or right behind them will be the Rays, everyone’s favorite SABR-friendly, low-budget, annoyingly-good well-oiled machine.  The Rays have been to the playoffs a grand total of one time, in 2008, and just missed out last season to the Red Sox. In the Central the Twins look to return to the playoffs for the second year in a row and the 6th time in the past 10 years. They’re doing so after leveraging the future revenue of their new stadium into a big-time contract for Joe Mauer and despite substantial injuries to their roster this year. Finally, the Rangers continue to throttle the AL West and have ended the Angels’ run of dominance.  The Rangers have been to the playoffs three times in franchise history but have won only one game total, never advancing past the first round.

So it goes.  Baseball’s regular season comes to an end soon, and as it competes with the NFL for viewership and ratings it won’t be a surprise to hear someone laud the way the NFL’s salary cap system produces “parity” (even in the absence of an NFL salary cap this year).  Yet, assuming the Braves take the Wild Card and the Padres or Giants win the West, 5 out of the 8 teams making the playoffs this year will be teams that were not in the playoffs in 2009.  4 of those teams (Reds, Padres, Rays, Rangers) will do so with an opening day payroll below ~$75M.

Parity isn’t an unqualified good.  Over the long haul, yes, it’s better for the sport that different teams are able to conquer past mediocrity and achieve success.  Ideally the goal is to see the best teams, the most skilled and smartly-managed teams, be able to succeed, not to simply see different teams make the playoffs every year.  Some teams are going to continue to do poorly because they’re poorly managed; their continued futility isn’t a black mark upon the sport as much as it is on their own ownership and management.  To be sure, though, the Yankees have advantages that the Reds do not.  Their revenue base and the willingness of ownership to spend money grant them a higher margin of error than other clubs.  Yet, given what we know about revenue sharing and the fact that the Yankees have subsidized the profit margins of teams like the Pirates and the Marlins, given the likelihood that the Yankees will face a team in the playoffs that they’ve subsidized with revenue-sharing money, and given the rise of teams like the Reds, the Rangers, the Padres and the Rays, maybe Yankee fans won’t have to listen to cries of unfairness this October should they repeat as champions.  Maybe, just maybe, this October can be about the beauty of the game and not the unfairness of “the system, man, the system”.

Hey, if the Reds can dream then so can I.

Postseason odds are becoming an obsession of mine.  Quite obviously there are plenty of factors that could render these odds irrelevant.  A team’s best player could go down with a season-ending injury, or a club could go on a hot streak like the Rockies in 2007, but generally speaking the odds provide a good way of managing epectation.  Baseball Prospectus’ Poseason Odds simulates the remainder of the season one million times using, inter alia, PECOTA projection.  Yesterday the Yankees were at 96% odds of making the postseason with a 71% of the winning the AL East.Today the odds are roughly identical.  Boston’s window continues to close: their odds are at a measly 17%, worse than the White Sox.  Every win by the Yankees, or loss by the Rays or Red Sox, eliminates the margin of error for opponents.  The sooner the Yankees can lock down a playoff spot the better.  There are plenty of players on this team, could use some rest to get fresh for October.

The Yankees will send Cy Young contender CC Sabathia to the mound this afternoon.  Sabathia hasn’t been the best pitcher in the American League East this year, but he will no doubt get serious Cy Young Consideration due to his low ERA and high win total.  As it stands, he looks like a strong candidate to win twenty games this year for the first time in his career.  Opposing Sabathia is Luke French, and the only similarity he has with Sabathia is the fact that he throws the ball with his left hand.  Luke French was acquired by the Mariners from Tigers last year in exchange for Jarrod Washburn, after the Mariners demanded Austin Jackson from the Yankees.  His ceiling is a fourth or fifth starter, and he’s a soft-tosser with extreme fly ball tendencies who rarely strikes batters out. Currently, he has a 46% fly ball percentage and a 33.8% ground-ball percentage.  Despite that, he only has a 2.3% HR/FB ratio.  Low HR/FB ratios might be sustainable in Safeco, but it’s doubtful that Yankee Stadium will be so forgiving.  French barely strikes anyone out, which ranks Curiously, he has a 2.3 % HR/FB ratio this year, despite a 33.8 GB%, and seems like a prime candidate for regression.  On a hot and humid day, the ball will be traveling well.  My hopes for a blowout, a dominant outing from the big man, and a step closer to a postseason birth, are high.

About last night.

Felix did what Felix does. Over eight innings, he struck out 11 and allowed no runs. He walked only three batters, and scattered four hits. The Yankees never had much of a chance, because AJ Burnett turned from Jekyll to Hyde, allowing five runs over his first four innings and letting in a sixth in the sixth inning. He looked good at times, and even settled down towards the end of the game, but the damage was done. In terms of probability, the Yankees didn’t have much of a chance:

Yet much like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, the Yankees wake up this morning no worse for the wear in the division.  Boston’s Jon Lester was absolutely rocked by Lyle Overbay and the Blue Jays, allowing nine earned runs in two innings.  Their bullpen was no help, as Atchison, Michael “nothing short of dominant” Bowden, Delcarmen and Wakefield all allowed runs in relief.  The Red Sox lost 16-2, and their WPA chart was even uglier than New York’s:

Yikes.  Out in Oakland, the Rays sent Jeremy Hellickson to the mound to face the Athletics.  Hellickson continued his hot start, making fantasy owners everywhere regret they hadn’t picked him up yet, allowing three earned runs over 6.1 innings, striking out seven, walking one and allowing seven hits.  When Hellickson left the game, the Rays were winning 4-3 and the Rays brought in Joaquin Benoit, who ranked very highly in my analysis of relievers on contending teams.  Yet Benoit sent the Yankees and Red Sox a little gift.  He walked Cust to lead off the inning, and Cust was replaced by Gabe Gross at first, and Kevin Kouzmanoff moved him to third on a single to right and advanced to second on the throw.  With runners on second and third and no out, Rajai Davis did his job and hit a sacrifice fly to center, scoring Gross.  Kouzmanoff would later score on an error by Ben Zobrist, and the Athletics went on to win 5-3.  This game was more of a WPA rollercoaster:

As a fan, the Yankees loss was annoying.  Bad AJ is worrisome, and there are question marks about this team’s rotation going into October.  Additionally, Rodriguez apparently tried to come back too early and aggravated his injury.  It was a frustrating night.  At the same time, it looks worse for the Yankees’ competition.  The Rays loss has to be discouraging.  The bullpen wasted a solid outing from their young starter, and in dropping a game to a clearly inferior AL West opponent they blew a chance to move into a tie for first in the American League East.  At the same time, the Red Sox was surely demoralizing.  Jon Lester is clearly their best pitcher and the Jays lit him up.  The Red Sox can’t afford very many more losses this year.  The Rays have 40 games to play; if they play .500 ball they will end the year with a 94-68 record. In order for the Red Sox to end the year with a 95-67 record, they will have to go 26-13.  It helps that they will have games against the Rays, but it’s getting late for Boston. On Thursday, the Red Sox PECOTA-adjusted playoff odds were around 20%.  After their loss to the Angels on Friday, it fell to 18%.  This morning, despite the fact that all three teams lost, it is down to 17%.  The Yankees remain at 96%, with a 71% chance of winning the AL East. Despite the question marks, things are still good for the team.  The Yankees will send Vazquez and his dead arm to the mound today to face Jason Vargas.  Hopefully the pitcher can get back on track and pick up a win.

In 2005 the Yankees called up 22 year-old second-base prospect Robinson Cano and he responded by hitting 14 home runs in 132 games on his way to a .778 OPS.   In 2006 he took a major step forward, hitting 15 home runs in 122 games while posting a solid tripleslash of .342/.365/.525.  His walk rate was nothing to be proud of, but the Yankees had themselves a very young second baseman worth 2.9 WAR, a total which would have been significantly higher if not for some low fielding marks. The following year was Cano’s first full season with the Yankees, and over 160 games he clubbed 19 homers, powering his way to .306/.353/.488 batting line.  Due to a higher fielding score, however, Fangraphs listed his value in 2008 as 4.7 WAR.

If you were reading about Cano for the first time today, and we stopped the story here and told you that in 2010, Cano was one of the best players on the Yankees and in all of baseball, you probably wouldn’t be surprised.  After the 2007 season, life was good.  All indicators were pointing up.  Robinson Cano for President!  Et cetera.  Yet, when 2008 rolled around, Cano disappointed.  His fielding scores reverted back to their low marks and he struggled at the plate, hitting only .271/.305/.410.  Sure, his BABIP and HR/FB ratios were well below career norms, but his performance couldn’t be ignored, could it?  Something was wrong with Cano, wasn’t it?  The Yankees missed the playoffs that year.  The Rays and their slew of home-grown prospects almost won the World Series, and the long cold winter stretched out in front of fans as disappointment settled in.

You weren’t alone, or an idiot, if you doubted Robinson Cano.  That winter, Bill James released his 2009 Baseball Handbook.   At the end of the book he ranked the top 25 young major league players of 2008, trying to strike a balance between age, upside and performance.  Cano was nowhere to be found.  Here was the top 25, in order:

Prince Fielder, Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Kemp, Francisco Rodriguez, Jose Reyes, Nick Markakis, Joakim Soria, Ryan Zimmermann, Cole Hamels, Troy Tulowitski, Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, Evan Longoria, John Danks, Adrian Gonzalez, James Loney, Stephen Drew, Brian McCann. Miguel Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Joey Votto.

James then ranked all of the 30 clubs after asking the question, “Who has the young talent now?  Which teams have the most young talent?” .  The Yankees were 29th out of 30, ahead only of the Houston Astros.  In his blurb about the Yankees, James gave Cano only the briefest of mentions: ”Anyway, the Yankees basically have no young talent of proven ability.  They’ve got Melky (83), Cano (104), and Joba (121)” (p. 452).

That 104 represents Cano’s ranking.  In 2008, Dustin Pedroia rightfully won the AL MVP, and Cano posted an OBP of .305 and barely earned himself the briefest of mentions in Bill James’ top young players list.  Melky was ahead of him.  For many, the doubt started to creep in with thoughts like: “Why doesn’t Robinson Cano work hard?” or “All Cano cares about is partying with Melky” or “Why can’t the Yankees develop position players?” or “Well, maybe a .325 BABIP was never sustainable in the first place” or “Maybe we should trade Cano while he still has value”.

Fish or cut bait?  Hold or fold?

You know how this story plays out.  Cano bounced back in 2009 with a .320/.352/.520 batting line and improved his UZR score to a career high.  This year, he’s posting his first-ever positive UZR score with 5.8 and is batting an insane .332/.389/.567.  He’s already been worth 5.5 Wins Above Replacement, second-highest in all of baseball.  In a few hours, Moshe will post a few words about the MVP race.  I imagine Robinson Cano will feature prominently in the discussion.  At the end of the year he may lose out to Josh Hamilton, but that will say more about Hamilton’s year than Cano’s.

This is a lesson in patience.  This is a lesson in conviction, in believing in players when other people start to doubt, slander or hate.  This is a lesson in not panicking.  Prospects will struggle, and some will never reach their full potential or just flat fall apart.  But sometimes hanging on to the guys that frustrate you, that make you scratch your head and wonder, that make you want to scream, proves to be the smartest thing a club could ever do.

Earlier today, Jason from It Is About the Money, Stupid posted an article about whether Albert Pujols would be baseball’s savior, “the one who restores our interest in home run milestones”.  He quotes liberally from Roy Johnson of ESPN NY.  Johnson assumes the familiar “let me tell you how it is” tone and states categorically that fans don’t care about Alex Rodriguez’s home run.  But Johnson takes it a step further, writing:

In one sense, we fans are a scorned love. Our hearts were broken and we’re just not going to let ourselves go there again, at least not anytime soon.

-snip-

Well, we just don’t dig it anymore. At least not that way. And there’s enough blame to go around for everybody, including A-Rod.

It’s hard to say if Jason wholeheartedly agrees with this sentiment, and I don’t want to put words in his mouth.  He does go on to say though that Rodriguez’s ascent up the home run leader board is tainted, and that Albert Pujols has the ability to restore our faith in baseball.  I’ve since taken this up with him on Twitter, and he argued that what baseball seems to want, or need, is “the hero” and that we can’t wish the problem away.

As I told Jason, I have several problems with this entire discussion.  For one, it’s presumptive of Roy Johnson to try to “speak for the fans”.  I tackled this before when we saw Feinsand and others do the same thing.  Capturing the zeitgeist of baseball culture is more than taking your opinion and projecting it on to the masses.  Further, is there honestly a lack of buzz surrounding the chase for 600?  To me, Yankee fans seem pretty excited.  I can’t watch ESPN for more than 10 minutes without hearing about it.   And I saw plenty of people packed into Progressive Field last night in the hopes of witnessing or even catching the home run.  But since I haven’t taken any polls or done real research, it wouldn’t be fair for me to presume to speak for whether “fans” are excited.  The same goes for Roy Johnson.

Secondly, talking about Pujols as baseball’s savior only legitimates the idea that non-users are on a different moral and/or historical level than users.  This notion makes me uncomfortable.  We don’t know how many players used steroids.  We only know that Rodriguez did because someone illegally leaked his name off a list of positive steroid tests, a list that was supposed to be anonymous.  We don’t know the other players that are on the list, and we may never.  If the biggest and brightest stars of our era are on that list and we never know, then we’ve believed a lie about which performances were more real and more significant.

Most of all, this is a tired conversation.  Five years ago, Alex Rodriguez was going to be the savior of baseball, the one that would bring baseball out of moral turpitude and restore the innocence of its halcyon days.  Then Alex admitted that he too was juicing.  Whoops.  Now we have to look to Pujols?  A year ago Joe Posnanski was selling us the same story, telling us that Pujols “won’t let us down”.  If we find out that Pujols was juicing all this time, do we go actually allow ourselves to feel “let down”?  Do we act like jilted lovers and talk about how we’re not going to get our hopes up again, before giving our hearts over to Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg, as long as they don’t use steroids?  And if they do too, do we look to the next rising star and hold them up as the Way Forward?

If there is a credibility gap in baseball, if fans are afraid to love again, if, in other words, baseball has an image problem, then it’s self-inflicted.  We’re selling the wrong stuff and we’re unable to move on.  We’re responsible for the image problem if all we talk about is Rodriguez’s positive test in 2003 and how no one cares about 600, about how Barry Bonds was a giant-headed villain, and how the summer of 1998 with Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire was just one big lie.  We can’t ignore the past, to be sure.  It’s a part of baseball history now.  But if we continually tie the redemption of baseball to our new favorite star not using steroids then we’re setting ourselves up to be the dog that constantly chases its own tail.  Sooner or later, everyone disappoints.  It’s what you learn when you become an adult, and it holds true for baseball.  So let’s change the conversation.  Let’s not sell Albert Pujols on the condition that we never find out he took some exotic steroid on his winter vacation.  Let’s just sell Albert Pujols.  Let’s sell the sweet swing of Joe Mauer and Justin Upton.  Let’s sell the story of Jason Heyward.  Let’s sell the Tampa Bay Rays.  Let’s sell Manny Ramirez and Mannywood, and Alex Rodriguez and the villainous New York Yankees.  Let’s let the game be enough and stop pretending that baseball needs a savior.  Baseball is alive and well, and it’s right in front of our eyes.

Well, except in Kansas City.

The story about Dustin Pedroia and his injured foot is hardly new ground, but yesterday readers were treated to a new bit of information about his timetable for recovery, and the risks he has been running by attempting to play.  In the Boston Globe’s Red Sox notebook yesterday we read the following:

Dr. Lewis Yocum examined the injured Red Sox second baseman yesterday and informed him that the broken medial navicular bone in his left foot will need at least six weeks to heal, not the five weeks Pedroia was hoping for.

“He kind of scared me a little bit,’’ Pedroia said last night before the Sox played the Angels. “There’s nothing really that I can do. Just time’s got to heal me. He kind of told me I can’t play unless I feel no pain, which isn’t good.

“I didn’t realize how serious it was and how long it’s going to take.’’

Today marks 33 days since Pedroia was injured, well short of six weeks. He is scheduled for a CT scan in Boston Friday, which should give doctors a better idea of how well the bone has healed. Until then, Pedroia will be shut down from throwing, taking grounders or batting practice to give his foot some rest.

“I think the message has been pretty consistent,’’ manager Terry Francona said. “I think today maybe Pedey heard it a little bit better.’’

–snip–

Pedroia said his foot “felt weird’’ Monday when he tried jogging for the first time. “Any time my foot pounds on that ground, it didn’t really feel good,’’ Pedroia said. “[Yocum] said you have to be smart, man. It can definitely hurt you in the long run.’’

Pedroia had been under the impression he could play through some pain. But Yocum said that wasn’t an option. If Pedroia fractures that bone again, he would be looking at surgery that could keep him out for parts of next season.

Let’s recap what happened.  34 days ago Pedroia fouled a ball off his foot and broke it.  Doctors said that he would miss six weeks, but he promised to return ahead of schedule, apparently thinking that he had the ability to heal bones faster than other similar athletes.  Sure, OK.  Athletes say stuff like that all the time.  A week later, Pedroia used his crutches to get out on the field and took grounders from his knees.  When asked to explain himself, Pedroia said “I’m just keeping my [expletive] ready…That’s all I’ve got for you. I’ve just got to keep my arm in shape.’’  It’s hard to tell if Francona respected this display of bravado, saying, ”He’s a maniac…He knows he can’t put any weight on that foot, or he’ll slow himself down.”

Pedroia is now probably two weeks away from returning and attempts to jog but says that it “felt weird”, no doubt sending terror throughout Red Sox Village.   The doctor scolds him, warning him that he’s risking the rest of this season, as well as part of next year, if he doesn’t cut it out and let the bone heal.  Pedroia acted as if this was news to him, but Francona isn’t buying it, saying “I think the message has been pretty consistent…I think today maybe Pedey heard it a little bit better.”

So how do we interpret this?  Do you interpret it like a hater like me would and say that Pedroia is a selfish, attention-seeking diva who is putting the club’s welfare at risk in order to beat a timeline and make himself look like a hero?  Do you interpret it like a homer would and say that Pedroia is just trying to get back as quickly as possible so he can help a struggling club get into the playoffs?  If it was Alex Rodriguez with the stress fracture and the details of the story were the same, would you feel the same way? Does it matter?  Finally, if those quotes were from Girardi about Rodriguez, would we all be hearing that Girardi is angry with Rodriguez, and that there is a schism in the clubhouse?  Does that illustrate any difference in approach between the New York and Boston media?  I’m not exactly sure where I come down on it, but I think it’s an interesting test case in light of our conversation about media narratives about Joba Chamberlain and Alex Rodriguez.

Here stand the Yankees: defending World Champions, first place in the American League East by 2 games, best record in baseball at 55-32 and best run differential at +111, no serious injuries at present time, the class of baseball and confident in mostly every important aspect of the game.  For the Yankees, things are good.  They’re on top, and no matter what will head into the All-Star Break as the class of baseball and in first place.

In two hours, CC Sabathia toe the mound against the Mariners.  Silencing the complaints over his slow start and May struggles, Sabathia has turned on the heat in June.  He’s earned a win in every one of his last seven starts, hurling 52.2 innings, striking out 49 and walking only 17.  He has an ERA of 1.88 during this stretch and opponents are OPSing .526 against him.  The big man is on fire.

Opposing Carsten Charles is a bespectacled Aussie named Ryan Rowland-Smith.  As I noted last time the Yankees faced him, Rowland-Smith has a walk rate (3.94) higher than his strikeout rate (3.49).  In 80 innings he has an ERA of 5.74 and a FIP of 6.64.  He’s started 15 games, and has a record of 1-8.  The win-loss record has its obvious pitfalls and can be misleading, but in this case it’s a pretty good indication of this central fact: Rowland-Smith is not very good at pitching.  The Yankees beat him when they faced him on July 1, but they didn’t exactly bludgeon him.  Rowland-Smith’s final line was 6.0 IP, 5H, 2ER, 3BB and 2K.

Despite last night’s ridiculous loss, the Yankees can take 3 out of 4 games from the Mariners with a win today and will have won 8 out of their last 10 games.  I’m hoping for a convincing and strong outing for CC and an early exit for Mr. Rowland-Smith.  One more win, fellas.  One more win and you get a few days off to do whatever it is you do when you’re not playing baseball.  Finish strong, and if it’s not too much trouble, please score enough runs and keep Joba off the mound.  I need a Joba break.

Ok.  So the win last night was ugly.  But it was a win nonetheless, and the Yankees are now 2.5 games up on the Red Sox and Rays on June 24.  How they got there, I have no idea.  To me, the past week has been a rotten stretch of baseball for the team.  Despite that, the Yankees are leading the league in several key measures.  They have more wins (45) and fewer losses (27) than any other club in baseball.  They have baseball’s best run differential (+102) and their Pythagorean record is 46-26, one game better than their actual W-L.  Baseball Prospectus projects them to finish 97-65, and lists their Postseason Odds at 79% overall, with a 54% chance of winning the AL East and a 25% chance of winning the Wild Card.  Despite AJ Burnett’s Hyde and Hyde act, Vazquez and Chamberlain’s inconsistency, mediocrity from everyone in the bullpen not named Mo, injuries to Rodriguez, Granderson, Swisher, Posada and Aceves, serious undperforming from Teixeira and Rodriguez, and the fact that Jesus Montero is a total bust (not even remotely serious), the Yankees are on top with 16 games until the All-Star Break.

The team will travel to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers for three games.  The Sunday game will be a very interesting pitching matchup, Pettitte v. Kershaw, and I’ll profile Kershaw on Sunday.  After a day off on Monday, the Yankees return home for a a six-game homestand in which they’ll host the Mariners and the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, it looks like the team will face both Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez in the series.  After that, the Yankees will travel to Oakland for a three game series and then to Seattle for a four game series.  Unfortunately, again, it appears that the rotations will line up for Lee and Hernandez to face the team again, in the second set.  One small schedule gripe: the team is on the West Coast right now.  It’s really too bad they have to travel back to New York for a week and then truck it all the way back out to the West Coast again the next week.  I’m sure there’s a good reason for it, but it’s unfortunate nonetheless.

As for our opponents, the Red Sox will travel to San Francisco for three games, with Lincecum facing Lester in the series finale on Sunday.  I’m all for the Yankees getting the Sunday night game, but as a fan of pitching I would prefer to see Lester and Lincecum face off in San Francisco.  C’est la vie. After that, the Red Sox will return home for two games against the Rays.  The pitching matchups for those games are: Lackey v. Shields and Garza v. Matsuzaka.  Advantage: Rays.  The Red Sox will then host the Orioles for three games, before traveling to Tampa and Toronto for three games in each city.    The Rays will host the Diamondbacks for three games this weekend, before traveling to Boston for two games.  They will then go to Minnesota for four games, return home to host Boston for three games and the Indians for four.

Normally, I would say that the schedule favors the Yankees, but they’ll be facing the Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez show while the Rays and Red Sox play in their first series.  When the Rays and Red Sox meet again, the Yankees will be playing Oakland.  My hope is that the team can make it to the All-Star Break with at least a two-game lead.  They’ll need it, as 10 of their first 22 games post-ASB are against the Rays and the Red Sox.  It’s gonna be on like Donkey Kong.

As the Yankees enjoy today’s off-day, let’s take a look at the week ahead.

On Tuesday, the Phillies come to the Bronx for a three-game set.  The Phillies, which hail from the city that has now lost two major sports titles in the past calendar year, are currently in third-place in the NL East, 3.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves, but only two games back in the loss column.  The Phillies are 4-6 in their last ten games, and come off a series in Boston in which they dropped 2 of 3.  On Tuesday, the Yankees will send CC Sabathia to the hill to face off against Roy Halladay.  I’m certain that at least one TV commentator will refer to it as a “potential Game 1 World Series matchup”.  I’m equally certain that this will annoy me, but I can’t seem to pin down why that is.  The following evening, the Phillies will send Kyle Kendrick to face AJ Burnett.  This game has the misfortune of being shown on ESPN and my heart goes out to all of you who have to listen to Joe Morgan.  The man is a national disgrace.  The last game of the series features Jamie Moyer and Andy Pettitte, who have a combined age of over 175 years, approximately.  Obviously anything can happen, but the latter two matchups are very favorable for the Yankees and if they are able to win the first game I will be vociferously calling for the sweep.

When the Phillies leave town, the Yankees will host the crosstown Mets.  The Mets are currently 35-28, one game ahead of the Phillies and a game and a half behind the Braves.  Winners of their last four straight, the Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 games and sport a +36 run differential, second-best in their division.  This is much better than I expected from this team.  Interestingly, they are better at home than on the road.  At Citi Field, the Mets are 24-10.  Everywhere else, they are 11-18.  This series will feature rematches of every pitching matchup from the last Subway Series in May.  On Friday night, the Yankees will send Javier Vazquez to face Hisanori Takahashi.  Last time they faced off, neither Takahashi nor Vazquez gave up a run, but the Yankees scored off the Mets’ bullpen and won 2-1.  On Saturday, the Yankees will send Hughes to the mound against Mike Pelfrey.  Last time they met, Pelfrey outdueled Hughes and the Mets won 5-3.  The final matchup of the weekend will feature Johan Santana and CC Sabathia, as well as commentary from every Yankees outlet on the time the Yankees almost dealt for Johan Santana.  To me, the storyline is getting a bit stale, which is why I am starting the completely false rumor that Cashman was prepared to part with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes for Santana, but balked at the Twins’ demand that he include Melky Cabrera.  Now that would be interesting.  Last time Santana and Sabathia faced off, Santana won and the Mets took the series.  Hopefully this weekend will be different.

The Yankees feasted on the Orioles and the Astros last week and now face more of a challenge in the Phillies and the Mets.  I will continue to be very pleased if they can win 2 of 3, especially against the Phillies.  I don’t know if it was the World Series, but Philadelphia has quickly become my second most-hated sports city.  I think you can probably guess the first.