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Only the Yankees have problems (or not)

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:04 pm 1 Response »
Oct 012010

With three games left in baseball’s 2010 regular season there is very little left to be decided.  In the National League, the Phillies and Reds have claimed their respective division crowns and the Giants are on the brink of clinching the NL West.  This leaves one spot left for the Padres and the Braves.  In the American League the four playoff teams have been decided for quite some time, and the only question is which AL East team will win the division and which one will take the Wild Card.  Given that and the relative dearth of drama in late regular season games, the main concern for most fans is how a team stacks up in relation to potential postseason competitors.  Yankee fans have had a lot of time on their hands to worry about different parts of the team: Nick Swisher’s leg, David Robertson’s back, Mariano Rivera’s struggles, the bullpen’s workload, Phil Hughes’ innings cap, Sabathia’s rest pattern, Andy Pettitte’s upper back, Mark Teixeira’s toe and the way that Girardi manages his bench and his bullpen. Like a couple cooped up in the house because of bad weather for days on end, Yankee fans have gotten ornery and critical, both of each other and the organization. Since familiarity often breeds contempt, and since it’s natural to assume that other teams don’t have issues like your team has issues, it’s helpful to check on the Yankees’ American League competitors and see how things are looking on the other side of the fence.

The Minnesota Twins have been one of the best teams in baseball this season.  In fact, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs penned a rather loving piece about the Twins, saying that the Twins are the best team in baseball.  While I do think that he overstates the importance of guys like Hudson, Hardy, Span, Casilla and Punto (seriously, Punto?), he does make a good argument that the rotation has a lot of depth and is backed by a solid bullpen.  And yet, Minnesota’s rotation has struggled mightily in the past few weeks, creating a downward spiral the likes of which would cause widespread hysteria amongst Yankee fans.  As Nick’s Twins Blog puts it in his piece entitled “What, Me Worry? Maybe a Little“, there are more than a few troubling signs:

After being blown out by the homer-happy Blue Jays last night 13-2, the Twins have now dropped six of their last seven games, being outscored 61-27 in the process. They were rather thoroughly pummeled throughout a road trip that brought them through Detroit and Kansas City, and then returned home to open their final series of the season by surrendering six home runs in a stadium where they — as a team — have gone deep only 50 times in 78 games this year…

Francisco Liriano, looking to rebound from an outing shortened by illness and sharpen up in his final tune-up start, surrendered three home runs — half of his previous season total — in 5 1/3 innings. Since seeing his ERA dip to 3.24 after hurling seven two-run frames against the Royals, he’s gone 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA. Five of the nine home runs he’s allowed this season have come during that span. After last night’s start, he’s thrown more than 190 innings this season, and that’s not counting the 50 or so innings he tossed in winter ball prior to spring training…

The same Pavano who was knocked around for seven runs on 11 hits over four innings in Detroit last weekend. Another guy with a history of arm problems, Pavano is at 214 innings this year entering tonight’s start. He’s given up 19 hits over nine innings in his last two turns…

But this isn’t just a slump. This team is getting throttled, with several of their worst losses of the season bunched up closely. And while that’s partially attributable to the inferior players they’re trotting out, one can’t exactly take solace in the way the regulars have been performing when given a chance.  The Twins have a grand total of three regular-season games remaining. I’m going to be grasping desperately for positive signs, because — regardless of what the historical data says — there’s just no way I’m going to feel very confident heading into the playoffs with almost the entire team playing like absolute trash.

Add to this the fact that Justin Morneau has been ruled out for the American League Division Series and is questionable for the American League Championship Series and you have a team with questions.  Were the Twins constructed well going into 2010?  Absolutely.  Will all their cylinders fire at the right time and in harmony to enable them to knock off teams with more potent offenses? Obviously we don’t know that yet.  It’s possible that Liriano and Pavano could right themselves in time for the ALDS, but the two of them have as many big question marks around them as any 1-2 punch in baseball, and I say this as someone who predicted the Twins to win the AL Central.

Meanwhile in Texas there are serious question marks as well.  Most fans are familiar with the saga of Josh Hamilton’s rib injury this year, and he looks to finally return to the field this evening.  What is not known, though, is how he will hold up playing the field, running the bases, and swinging at 100%.  Boston fans are well aware of the risk of recurrence or reinjury with rib issues, and it appears that the Rangers will still be very cautious with him, having him play the field for 6 innings tonight and then get pulled from the game, DH on Saturday and then play the field on Sunday.  On the pitching side, Aaron Gleeman noted this morning that the Rangers are going with a four-man rotation in the ALDS, choosing not to push Cliff Lee out there in Game 4 on short rest.  For the Rangers’ ALDS opponent, this is very good news.  Instead of Lee, the Rangers will start Tommy Hunter in Game 4.  By way of reference, Hunter has a FIP of 4.99 and an xFIP of 4.72, comparable to AJ Burnett’s marks of 4.81 and 4.65.

Finally, we have the Tampa Bay Rays, who have dropped four of five to Baltimore and Kansas City, getting shut out by Kevin Millwood and Brian Matusz.  Leaving aside the team’s recent slump, there are questions about the rotation after David Price, which you can see outlined here on DRaysBay.  One example is the ostensible Game 2 starter James Shields, who has a September ERA of 7.00 and an OPS-against of 0.895.  On the offensive side, Evan Longoria hasn’t played since the series in New York on September 23 due to an injury to his left quadriceps. While there had been some speculation that his return was imminent, this report from Tampa Bay Online suggests that he may be out for this weekend’s series against Kansas City.

The Twins, Rangers and Rays are all very good teams.  Each one of them is capable of getting hot and riding the wave to the World Series.  But each one of them has unique questions heading into the the playoffs this season.  Fortunately, the team with the least amount of questions – the Rays – wouldn’t face the Yankees until the ALCS.  No matter what happens this weekend, whether the team sweeps Boston and wins the division or looks flat and drops the series, the Yankees will face an ALDS opponent with just as many question marks, if not more.

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Discussion: Twins or Rangers

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Sep 132010

The Yankees go into Tampa Bay for a 3 game set with the Rays this week with the AL East lead on the line. With both teams comfortably ahead of the next best wild card contender, the results of this series and the AL East race are only relevant in terms of determining playoff matchups and homefield advantage. The winner of the division will almost certainly play the Texas Rangers and will have home field throughout the playoffs, while the wild card team will play the Twins and will have to go on the road to start each series. Let’s take a quick look at the rosters of both teams to see which club makes for a better matchup. This is not intended to be an in-depth statistical analysis of the two clubs, but a cursory look to try and get a feel for whether there is an obvious difference in quality between them.

Offense

Minnesota and Texas are neck and neck in terms of runs per game (4.84 to 4.85 respectively), but the excellent run environment in Texas inflates the Rangers’ totals. By OPS+, Minnesota is tied with Boston for 3rd in the AL at 108 (.336 wOBA), while Texas is in a tie for 5th at 102 (.333 wOBA). The Twins are average or better at every position but shortstop and center field, and even those two players (JJ Hardy and Denard Span) are far from automatic outs. It is a deep lineup that performs fairly well against both righties and lefties. However, there is one major question mark about their offense, and that is the health of Justin Morneau. He has been out since July with a concussion, and there are no guarantees that he returns for the postseason. If he does not, that lineup becomes much easier to navigate.

Texas is not as deep, with below average hitters at short, in center, and behind the dish. Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz are the big boppers in that lineup, and Vladimir Guerrero seems to be recovering after a poor couple of months derailed his strong start. Much like Minnesota, Texas has to deal with a major injury concern, with Hamilton being banged up and currently unavailable. However, his prognosis seems to be better than Morneau’s, and he is likely to be back for the postseason.

Advantage: If Morneau is healthy, Twins. If not, slight edge to Texas.

Pitching and Defense:

Advanced metrics prefer the Twins defensively, with +/- showing a 42 to 13 edge and UZR giving Minnesota a 26.5 to 15.3 advantage. In terms of pitching, I thought it would be instructive to look at the top 3 starters and the bullpens of each team, as those are the guys the Yankees are likely to see.

I had difficulty finding proper splits for relief pitching, but by a pure runs per game measure, the Twins bullpen has been second in the AL at 3.97 while Texas comes in at 4.27. However, because this does not correct for environment, that gap is likely to narrow considerably when the Ballpark in Arlington is factored in. Texas has the better closer in Pedro Feliz and a number of hard throwers, but the Minnesota bullpen is deeper and is more balanced in terms of pitcher handedness.

The top 2 in Minnesota has been fantastic, with both Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano (ugh) putting forth strong years. Liriano should be getting more Cy Young buzz than he has been getting, while Pavano has already pitched 205 innings (ugh) and has an ERA at 3.48. However, after the top two Minnesota has issues. Scott Baker is likely to get the third spot if healthy, but he has elbow issues and could very well lose his spot to Kevin Slowey. Slowey has struggled for a while but is having a decent season overall, while other options such as Nick Blackburn and Brian Duensing have been fairly inconsistent.

The situation in Texas is rosier, assuming Cliff Lee is healthy again. Lee and CJ Wilson form a formidable top 2 that likely surpasses the one in Minnesota, and Colby Lewis provides a solid third starter who is superior to any of the options that the Twins have for that spot. Tommy Hunter has gotten very lucky thus far, but he is not an atrocious option for a fourth slot should Texas choose to go with 4 starters.

Advantage: I give the edge on defense and in the bullpen to Minnesota, while the rotation is a clear win for Texas.

Overall, I think these teams are close enough that the health of Justin Morneau is likely to be the deciding factor between the two clubs. Assuming that he is out, I would give the edge to Texas based on the strength of their rotation. As such, winning the division would give the Yankees home field but would force them to face the slightly superior opponent. I find that an evaluation of all of these factors makes the identity of the AL East title to be largely irrelevant. If Joe Girardi decided to prioritize keeping his players fresh for the postseason rather than focus all his resources on winning the division, I would not be greatly disappointed.

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Trouble in Twinkietown, too

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 2 Responses »
Sep 042010

pavano

Really?  Everyone on the Twins gets hurt but this guy?  REALLY?  Photo courtesy of daylife.com

Yesterday I chronicled the difficulty surrounding the Texas Rangers’ injury situation, noting that problems with Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee could seriously derail the Rangers’ chances in the playoffs.  Yet the Rangers aren’t the only ones with injury issues.  As the Twins move closer and closer to locking down the AL Central and eliminating the White Sox, players are dropping like flies and threaten to make the Twins an easy target in October.

The guys over at the Twins blog The Bat Shatters noted on Friday that the Twins series against Detroit was a success in the win-loss ledger, but couldn’t really the Twins’ roster in a major way.  To start, the Twins ran through their entire pitching staff.  As The Bat Shatters notes:

Yes, the Twins won 2 out of 3 and took a home series which they needed to take. Yes they are still 3.5 games up on the White Sox and yes, they are still in the driver’s seat for the division crown. But, I can’t imagine a series win costing this team more than the Tigers series did. To recap:

- On Tuesday night, the Twins used 5 pitchers: Duensing, Guerrier, Flores, Crain, Capps
- On Wednesday night, the Twins used 6 pitchers: Liriano, Crain, Flores, Guerrier, Capps, Rauch
- On Thursday night, the Twins used 8 pitchers: Baker, Manship, Rauch, Flores, Guerrier, Crain, Duensing, Blackburn

All of that would be fine, but the Twins also suffered some serious injuries.  The Bat Shatters continues:

In addition to all of that, the series cost the Twins Orlando Hudson, Jason Kubel (could be bad, he’s headed for more X-Rays), Brian Fuentes and Scott Baker (looks like elbow tendinitis again).  /buries head in hands

These injuries only add to the woes the team already had.  Justin Morneau has been out for months and there is no immediate timetable for his return.  Jim Thome continues to struggle with lower back discomfort and is used only in a pinch-hitting role.  Starter Kevin Slowey is on the disabled list with triceps pain.  Finally, rookie surprise 3B Danny Valencia left last night’s game with a mild hamstring strain.  To summarize, the team has injuries to their starting 1B, 2B, 3B, RF, DH, two of their starters and their only good lefty reliever.  This leaves them with a current rotation of Liriano-Pavano-Duensing-Blackburn and it means more playing time for guys like Matt Tolbert, Jason Repko and Alexi Casilla.

As with the Rangers, the Twins have time on their side.  The White Sox are four games behind them (three in the loss column), but the Twins keep banging out wins and Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA-adjusted Playoff Odds Report gives them an 87% chance of winning the division.  The Twins will play the White Sox only once more, in a week and a half, and if the Twins can win 2 of 3 they will effectively lock up the division.   This will give them an opportunity to get guys like Slowey and Baker healthy, but there are still big questions surrounding this team as it lurches towards October.

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Bullpen By Committee Working For Minnesota, Media Silent

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 6:47 pm 4 Responses »
May 282010

Tom Tango makes an interesting point in a post over at The Book Blog:

Twins’ bullpen is first in MLB in Situational Wins (WPA/LI), and 4th in MLB in WPA. They are 5th in ERA and 10th in FIP.

This is just like your buddy coming back from Vegas, and only telling you about the days he won big and ignores the days he lost big. “Look at me! I’m nostradamus! I’m going to make 100 predictions, 50 of which will be wrong, but boy will I tell you about the 50 that are right!”

Media: do me a favor, and next time an ace reliever goes down, just say this: “It’s going to be a tough road for the team, but there’s a decent chance that the team won’t miss him at all. That’s because baseball is subject to such random variation that to pin the outcome of the season to any one player is foolish.”

Yes, I know this means that the 1000 articles that were written about Joe Nathan gets lowered down to 1. And I know that means that you won’t get easy money on the standard woe-is-Twins article when Nathan went down. Be a man about it, and write something with more inspiration.

You likely have not heard much about the Twins’ pen this season, simply because it is a boring story that does not hold interest like the initial panicked missives that questioned whether the Twins could recover from the loss of their star closer. Now, I too am surprised at how good the Twins bullpen has been, as they have had little drop-off from last season despite losing one of the two or three best closers in the game. It illustrates that a good pitcher like Jon Rauch can slide into the role and perform adequately, and that closers in general are overrated. But those are themes that do not fit the media driven narrative about the sheer difficulty of closing baseball games, so you are unlikely to find much written about this topic.

When the Red Sox went with a closer by committee system and did not succeed, most media members clucked in derision at the stat-heads and their silly ideas about baseball. Yet when the facts cut in the other direction, we hear nary a peep coming from the skeptics. I am not suggesting that the success of the Twins bullpen proves that anyone can close or that a bullpen can be constructed by just tossing together some solid arms, but it does warrant a more in-depth look at the issue from people who have long claimed the opposite to be true.

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Burnett Against The Twins

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 12:53 pm 1 Response »
Oct 092009

As I did with CC Sabathia, I want to briefly run through A.J. Burnett’s history against the Twins. For his career, Brunett is 2-1 with 3.72 ERA against Minnesota in 6 starts. This season, AJ started twice against the Twins and finished 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA. He threw into the 7th in both games, and allowed 2 runs in both as well. However, he did allow plenty of baserunners in both games, with 11 reaching in the first and 12 in the second. His problem was control, as he walked 10 in the two games combined. In case you were wondering, Cash caught the first one and Posada caught the second.

In regard to individuals, Joe Mauer is the only Twin with more than 10 PA’s against AJ to have an OPS over .700, with a 929. Cuddyer comes in with a 498, Kubel is at .647, andYoung is at an even .700. It might make sense to pitch around the soon-to-be MVP.

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Looking At The Twins Bullpen

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 2:00 pm 6 Responses »
Oct 072009

From LEN we get word that the Twins will carry 12 pitchers on their postseason roster, with the following 8 relievers making the cut:

Closer Joe Nathan and lefthanders Francisco Liriano, Ron Mahay and Jose Mijares and righthanders Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Bobby Keppel.

Let’s run through these names so that you know what to expect come the late innings in the ALDS.

The Lefties: ?????? ????? ???? It is important to note that most of the lefties on the Yankees roster have no problem with hitting against lefty pitching. That being said, I am sure Ron Gardenhire will play matchups regardless of that fact, so let’s break it down.

Jose Mijares has been used as the primary lefty specialist by the Twins, with lefties hitting .155/.228/.252 against him. Righties have an OPS of .791 against him, so I doubt we see him face anything but lefties and possibly some switch hitters. I could see him being used against Johnny Damon in a big spot, with the Twins then being forced to decide whether to let him pitch to Teixeira or not. His xFIP is 4.63, which suggests that his low 2.34 ERA is a product of luck.

Ron Mahay was having an awful year in KC before coming to Minny and putting together a solid run over 9 innings of work. However, at this point he is a specialist who is not great against lefties (.743 OPS) and awful against righties (1.005). He has allowed 10 homers on the season, and is averaging almost 4 walks per 9 innings. Imagine Phil Coke without the really low WHIP, allowing plenty of homers but not compensating by getting very many outs. As with Mijares, he will likely be used as a LOOGY, which illustrates why the Twins need to take 12 pitchers.

Francisco Liriano has had an awful year, and his numbers are not significantly better as a reliever than they were as a starter. He is an immense talent, but is unlikely to see important moments in this series. He will be used as a long man or possibly for a lefty or two, and will likely be the mop up guy in the event of a blowout.

The Righties:

Matt Guerrier is the set up man, although the acquisition of Jon Rauch has muddied the waters a bit. Guerrier has actually been better against lefties (.525 OPS) than righties (.645), but he is going to be used for full innings and is unlikely to be pulled for a specialist in a big spot. He does not walk very many hitters (less than 2 per 9), keeps home runs down, and does not allow much in the way of baserunners (.97 WHIP). His only flaw is a low K rate (5.5 K/9), which may hurt him against a Yankee club that generally handles non-power pitchers.

Jon Rauch has had a very solid career since moving to the bullpen, and 2009 was no exception. He leads the Twins in strand rate (91.4%), and is equally solid against lefties and righties. Like Guerrier, he does not allow very many home runs, but he walks more hitters and allows more hits, making him the second best righty in the pen outside of the closer. Rauch, Guerrier, and Mijares constitute the bridge to closer Joe Nathan, and they make for a pretty solid late inning combination.

Jesse Crain has seen his numbers drop precipitously since his excellent rookie campaign in 2004, to the point where he is currently a below average pitcher. He walks too many batters (4.7 per 9) and gets destroyed by lefties. That being said, his numbers against righties are very good (.220/.291/.280), meaning he can be used together with the LOOGY’s to piece together an inning or so.

Bob Keppel, last night’s winning pitcher, is the last man out of the pen for Ron Gardenhire. He walks too many hitters, is equally mediocre against lefties and righties, and does not strike anybody out. If he is the game, it probably means the game is not very close.

The Closer:

Joe Nathan is about as close to Mariano Rivera as a pitcher can get, with his numbers since arriving in Minnesota rivaling those of the great Mo. Steve touched on this in the post breaking down the starters, and a look at the numbers he posted illustrates how close a comparison it really is. The one caveat is that the Yankees have fared pretty decently against Nathan, with the second highest OPS (.715) against Nathan of all AL Teams. If the Twins reach the 9th inning with a lead, the Yankees will have their work cut out for them.

?????? ????? ????

In sum, the Twins have a good bullpen highlighted by a stellar closer and very good set up man. They also have a number of solid options to use in matching up, although most of the Yankee hitters do not have extreme splits to take advantage of. Like the rest of the Twins team, this facet of their club is good but not great.

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Joe Mauer: Dream or Reality?

Posted by Chris H. at 1:40 pm 13 Responses »
Sep 282009

From Charley Walters (TwinCities):

Joe Mauer, despite catching regularly for the Minnesota Twins and missing the first 22 games with a sore back, still has 179 hits this season — without steroids. That’s just two fewer hits than Barry Bonds had in one season during his 22-year major league career. The most hits Bonds had in one season was 181 in 1993 for the San Francisco Giants.

Mauer is not only leading the American League in batting average (.371), but in on-base percentage (.442) and slugging percentage (.606).

Mauer, 26, can become a free agent after the 2010 season. When contract talks get serious after this season, the Twins are expected to try to sign Mauer for about $120 million over seven years.

The New York Yankees, however, with catcher Jorge Posada at 38 years old, are expected to offer more money and possibly more years.

If the Twins offer Mauer 7 years at $120 million, they’ll be undervaluing him. According to FanGraphs, Mauer has been worth an eye-popping $35.6 million this year (7.9 WAR). While he won’t get that annually, he could very well earn over $20 million per year. However, being a catcher both hurts and helps Mauer’s cause in that his offense is above and beyond the production of the average catcher, yet catcher’s are injury risks in their own right (and Mauer has somewhat of a checkered injury history). Any team willing to commit that much money to the catcher’s position, along with 7 or more years, are taking on a significant investment and one with great risk. This might help to keep Mauer’s payday lower than what it should be (it’ll still be a lot, of course).

If Mauer doesn’t provide Minnesota with a discount, rejects their offer, and hits free agency, will the Yankees be willing to offer him a 7-8 year deal worth $160-170 million (we’re talking Teixeira money)? Mauer will only be 28 at the start of the 2011 season, therefore, you’d be getting him for at least 3 of his best years (assuming he stays healthy). There are some factors that complicate matters, though, if the Yankees do intend on adding Mauer to their lineup.

First, the team is in need of a left fielder for next season. If they were to sign Matt Holliday or Jason Bay (Holliday is the best option), then they would likely bow out of the Mauer sweepstakes in 2010 for financial reasons, as either player would require a fairly lucrative long-term deal (that’s on top of the contracts that they’re already paying for). If they don’t sign either player and try Johnny Damon on a one-year deal, then I would expect them to be serious suitors for Mauer once he hits free agency. What the Yankees do this offseason, spending-wise, could shed light on whether or not they’ll pursue Mauer. However, in terms of a Mauer signing, left field is not the only issue at play.

The second element is super prospect Jesus Montero. If the Yankees believe Montero can remain a catcher—it’s very unlikely, but they’ll give him every chance to succeed there—then they could stay out of the Mauer market. It is up to Montero though, to improve at his position, defensively. If they decide that he does not have a real future there, then the Yankees could move him to another position. However, given his physical limitations, primarily his lack of foot speed, the only other options for Montero are DH and first base. While first base isn’t a possibility (Teixeira), the Yankees could try Montero as their regular DH in 2011. That would then open up the door for Mauer to become the team’s catcher.

Of course, we must not forget about Jorge Posada. Posada is signed through 2011, though I doubt that would stop the Yankee from acquiring Mauer. Posada could be shifted to the DH role for the final year of his contract. Yet, as I stated a moment ago, Jesus Montero’s role with the club could effect things. Montero may be ready for 2011, therefore, having Jorge as your DH would hinder a possible promotion for the top prospect. Still, Montero will only be 21 through the ’11 season, meaning that the Yankees could simply keep him in Triple-A for more experience (it would also help them in that it will prevent Montero’s free agency clock from being started). That would allow them to bring in Mauer and keep what is hopefully a productive Jorge Posada in their lineup, as well. If Posada wants to keep playing after his contract has expired, perhaps he could return as the DH (this will hinge on his ability to play, price, overall effectiveness, Montero’s readiness, etc.).

In sum, the Yankees could very well pursue Mauer for 2011, as Posada’s career will be ending at that point in time. With Jesus Montero in the catcher pipeline, the Yankees could also choose not to bring Mauer in, in the hopes that Montero will become Manny Ramirez behind the plate. However, Montero—with his size and lack of defensive tools—could ultimately outgrow the position, which would then create an external need for a successor to Jorge Posada. The Yankees could then opt for Mauer, assuming that they have the necessary funds. But, if the team signs one of Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, then their pursuit could be very limited. Regardless of whether or not the Yankees intend on actually signing Mauer, you can be assured that they’ll try to remain active in his market in order to drive the price up. The Red Sox will also be in search of a new catcher and Mauer will be the first, and possibly the only, name on their shopping list.

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Twins or Tigers?

Posted by Chris H. at 5:00 pm 4 Responses »
Sep 212009

From Charley Walters (Pioneer Press):

The Yankees, who likely would be the Minnesota Twins’ first-round playoff opponent in New York if the Twins can win the Central Division, haven’t discounted Minnesota yet. The Yankees had three scouts at the Metrodome covering the Twins during their three-game series against Detroit.

The Yankees had three more scouts at the Dome, though, writing reports on the first-place Tigers.

Meanwhile, the Twins have two scouts each following the Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels for the final two weeks of the season.

Who would you rather face in the postseason, the Twins or the Tigers?

I think the Twins’ pitching staff could surprise you, however, they don’t have any Verlanderesque types in their rotation. Their offense has also been hurt by a season-ending injury to Justin Morneau (they still have Mauer and Cuddyer, though). The Tigers have never been a great club, either, with holes in their rotation and offense. The Yankees should be able to beat either team in the playoffs, but, if I had to choose, I think I’d rather take on the Twins. If Verlander is on, he can easily win game one without the help of his offense.

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