Greetings to all those readers who still have power (I don’t; I’m writing this from the library). In keeping with some of my last posts, I’m going to throw a small bit of limelight onto some players outside the Yankee scope of things. I’ve covered the NL West and NL Central, so now I’ll turn my attention to a division a bit closer to home, the NL East.
There are two players we should watch out for, one on each side of the ball, in Philadelphia. The first is Jayson Werth, whom I’ve recently discussed. Werth is in the final year of his contract and will likely be looking for a big pay day post 2010. Werth’s posted three straight years of 120+ OPS+ marks, but is on the wrong side of thirty. We’ll have to watch this year to see if his late blooming continues or if he declines a bit.
On the mound, there’s one of my favorite players in baseball: Cole Hamels. 2009 was an odd year for Cole. He started just one fewer game, 32, than he did in 2008. His peripherals were almost all exactly the same as 2008. However, his ERA jumped from a stellar 3.09 to 4.32. The only thing I can see is that more hits started falling. His BABIP jumped from .270 to .325 (BAA went from .231 to .274) so either he was giving up harder contact or the hits just fell. According to StatCorner’s tRA+, Cole was still solid at 122 (same scale as ERA+) so it would appear Hamels was not giving up much hard contact. I think 2010 will be a bounce back year for him in a big way.
Florida’s Ricky Nolasco is another player similar to Hamels. Despite similar peripherals to his 2008 season, Nolasco struggled in 2009. The first two months of the season (.895 and 1.095 OPS against marks) basically sunk Ricky’s season. His 5.01 ERA is ugly to look at, but almost everything else was just as good as that number was bad. He struck out 9.5 (6th in the NL) batters per nine innings while only walking 2.1 (10th in the NL). His K/BB was a ridiculous 4.43 (third in the NL). Like Hamels, I expect Nolasco’s ERA to catch up to his outstanding peripherals.
For the Braves, I’m going the sentimental route: Melky Cabrera (the non-sentimental route is uber-prospect Jason Heyward). We all know Melky’s history, so I won’t rehash it. It will be interesting to see if a move to the “lesser” league will help Melky reach the potential that seems to have escaped him in his Yankee career. Maybe I’m not holding my breath for it to happen, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Melky turned into a better-than-decent regular with the Braves.
There really isn’t much to watch in Queens is there? Carlos Beltran will miss time, as will Jose Reyes. The only constant seems to be Johan Santana who’s a bit of a question mark after elbow surgery (but, really, we all know he’ll be just fine). The only player to watch here is David Wright. Wright didn’t have a bad season, but his 123 OPS+ was the lowest since his first time in the bigs (2004, 118). His power dropped off like crazy; he went from a .534 SLG to a .447; he hit only 10 homers (33 in ‘08); his IsoP dipped from a robust .232 to a measly .140. Was this all from the new Citi Field? Not exactly. His power numbers on the road, .458 SLG, .144 IsoP, were not strong either. We’ll have to watch closely if 2009 was an aberration (likely) or if it’s the beginning of a downward trend in power for the Mets’ man at the hot corner.
As there with the Mets, there is little to look at in Washington. Stephen Strasburg is on the way, so that will be a beacon of hope for the struggling Nats. Instead of him, though, I’m going to focus on third baseman Ryan Zimmerman. After three years of just-above-average production at the plate, Zimmerman broke out in 2009, posting a 133 OPS+ and belting 33 home runs. Those are star numbers. We’ll have to watch closely to see if Zimmerman continues down this path. I’ve got a good feeling that he will, and in time, the Nationals will have something to look forward to.

Yesterday, I looked at some of Brian Cashman’s recent trades, specifically what he and the Yankees gave up and whether or not those players would really make a difference. I ended the post with the Brian Bruney trade and now I’m going to start this on with the more major trades of the offseason. Instead of going deal by deal, like I did last night, I’m going to go player by player for today’s post.
Starting with the guy who had the biggest impact on the Major League team, we have outfielder Melky Cabrera, who was shipped to Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez deal. Melky was a nice player, especially on a team like the Yankees. He could play all outfield positions competently–at the very least–and could put up league average numbers at the plate. His switch hitting was also a nice touch. Losing Melky, though, is not the worst thing in the world for the Yankees. In fact, it’s really not a bad thing. Despite his useful skill-set, he is an easily replaceable player. One could, and will/should, argue that the Yankees have already replaced Melky with Randy Winn. Melky’s still young and could develop further, but after over 2000 plate appearances with the Yankees, the only consistent thing from Melky was inconsistency. I wish Melky luck in the National League, but I do not think I will miss him terribly.
Moving to the next Major League player traded, we come to Phil Coke, who went to Detroit in the Granderson deal. He seems like a decent enough guy, and maybe he could develop into something more than he is now, but that’s unlikely. He doesn’t have the pitches to start and his tendency to give up the gopher ball sets him back. In 2010, he would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen and his role would likely have been diminished. Guys like Coke are not very hard to find on the open market and we may not notice his departure all that much.
Mike Dunn, another LHP, is kind of in the same category as Coke. He’ll never be a starter, but he does have a tick more upside than Coke, simply because Dunn throws harder. He still has control issues that need to be worked out as well. Dunn’s role on the 2010 Yankees was also in question at the time of his trade. Despite Coke being traded, Dunn was still likely to be only the second lefty out of the bullpen. Again, this is a small role and it will not likely be missed.
Ian Kennedy is another player whose role on the 2010 Yankees would’ve been rather unclarified and muddy. He wouldn’t have had the innings built up to be a starter and likely would’ve been either SP depth in Scranton or a long man in the bullpen. However, the latter role is already crowded. I’m definitely going to miss Ian, though, and of all the players the Yankees traded away in 2010, he’s the one for whom I’m going to root hardest. I feel like he never got a fair shot from the fans and hopefully, he can re-turn some heads in the desert.
Now, we come to the prospects: Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino. In terms of the short term, trading away these two does not do much to harm the Yankees. After all, Jackson needed at least another half a season in Scranton and Viz hasn’t yet pitched in a full season league. Long term, though, it hurts the system a bit. The Yankees are pretty short on position player talent and Jackson fits that bill. Vizcaino is a young, high upside arm and those are always nice to have. These are probably the two biggest losses of the offseason, but like every coin, these have a flip side.
Starting with Jackson, we have a player whose star has lost a bit of its shine as he moves through the minor league ranks. Ajax’s power still hasn’t quite come around and there are still questions about his plate discipline. Maybe I’m being too bearish on Jackson, but I have a feeling that he’ll become nothing more than a solid regular in his career. Now, that’s not a bad thing and it’s obviously something the Yankees would’ve wanted. However, over the next four years, I highly doubt that Austin Jackson the Tiger will be better than Curtis Granderson the Yankee.
Vizcaino is the biggest loss of the offseason. He has the most upside of the players traded and has had great results thus far. But, like I’ve repeated ad nauseum, he’s never pitched in a full season league. That definitely counts against him. There are also pitchers in front of him: Zach McAllister, Manny Banuelos, Ivan Nova, for example.
For what it’s worth, here’s my rankings of these players traded away in terms of impact:
1. A-Viz: High upside arm, but a long way off.
2. Ajax: Medium upside bat, needed more time.
3. Melky: Useful player, but easily replaceable.
4. IPK: Good SP depth, uncertain role.
5. Dunn: Some upside, but likely a LOOGY at the end of the day.
6. Coke: Dunn with a smaller upside.
All in all, Brian Cashman has not given up very much over the last year and a half or so in terms of trades. It’s also wroth discussing what he’s brought in. In guys like Hinske and Hairston, he brought in role players who helped complete a championship team. In Nick Swisher, he bought low on a very solid player, and the same could be said for Curtis Granderson. While losing Austin Jackson was not desirable, the package Detroit took for a solid player like Granderson was one the Yankees had to send off, and the same goes for the deal with Atlanta. We all hate to see young players go, but it’s a part of the game. Brain Cashman has done a good job of trading the right people for the right parts and is one of the finest trading general managers in baseball.

Here’s an interesting bit of text via Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record:
Yankee hitting instructor Kevin Long spoke for the franchise when he said, “We all want to see Robbie get to the next level. It’s definitely time, and he knows it.”
Cano seems ready for the challenge, showing up at 7 a.m. this week for infield drills with Alex Rodriguez. That’s a considerable lifestyle change for the historically easygoing Cano, whose friendship with Melky Cabrera may or may not have kept him from reaching superstar status.
Cano lamented his buddy’s off-season trade to the Braves, saying, “We used to go out and talk all the time. I’ve known him for 10 years.” But one member of the organization says Cano is better off on his own, spending more of his baseball-time with A-Rod.
This notion that the Melky-Cano relationship was a hindrance in terms of Cano’s overall development has been longstanding, although I’m not quite sure that I buy it. I guess it makes sense in that by having your best friend around, at all times, you choose to hang out with him throughout the season rather than other players such as Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, etc. In that sense, the loss of Melky could force Cano to spend time with other players – better players – and glean valuable knowledge from them. However, again, I think that might be overstated here in Klapisch’s article.
I guess we will have to wait and see how Melky’s absence affects Cano, but I figure any impact will be minimal.
Photo via Talk-Sports.net
On the 17th, Tim of MLB Trade Rumors posted the off season in review for the Yankees. There, he obviously lists all the moves that Brian Cashman has made since the Yankees won their 27th championship in November. Since the roster is more or less set, and we’ve got little to do until the Spring Training opener, I thought it’d be nice for us to do a little review of some of the different moves. Today, we’ll talk about pitching
The Yankees made two moves in the rotation this year: they re-signed Andy Pettitte to a one year, $11.75MM deal and acquired Javier Vazquez from the Braves–along with reliever Boone Logan–for Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Arodys Vizcaino. Both of these moves are good moves, and I think we all know why.
Pettitte may not be very flashy anymore, but he’s almost a lock to provide 180-200 innings of at least league average pitching. He’s had that type of season (at least 180 IP/100 or greater ERA+) in 11 of his 15 Major League seasons. Consistent performance like that is incredibly valuable, especially when it’s coming from the team’s third starter.
Consistency is also something they’ll get from Javy Vazquez, who’s pitched under 200 innings just three times in his career (172.1 in ‘98, 154.2 in ‘99, and 198 in ‘04). Considering he’ll be lined up as the de-facto fourth starter, the Yankees are likely to get great value from Vazquez. The trade that brought him (back) to the Bronx was also a great deal.
While Melky Cabrera was useful, his being traded seems to signal that the Yankees don’t think he’s going to grow much more than he already has. While that’s one long term ramification of the deal–there is another one–in the short term, it’s a solid deal. I’d be willing to bet something of good value that Javier Vazquez will be more valuable in 2010 than Melky Cabrera will. The other piece the Yankees sent along, Arodys Vizcaino, definitely has high upside but he’s still untested in a full season league, so it’s more than doubtful that he’ll provide any value to Atlanta’s big club team in 2010.
Losing Vizcaino meant that the Yankees’ system took a big hit. However, like it’s been said, despite his undeniable talent, he’s very far away from being a big leaguer. It’s conceivable that, if they offer him arbitration and let Vazquez leave after this season, the Yankees could get a suitable replacement for Vizcaino in the 2011 draft.
Boone Logan was also brought in, and he’ll compete in Spring Training for a bullpen spot. If he makes it, it’ll be as the second lefty. Logan has a .702 OPS against lefties (.333/.398), so he could be a good second option. Is he a necessity? No. Could it hurt to give him an audition at some point in the season? Sure. Basically, Logan replaces Mike Dunn, who would’ve been the second lefty out of the bullpen after Phil Coke was traded to the Tigers.
Of course, the Yankees also lost some pitching in the offseason, though none if it is incredibly major. Aside from Vizcaino, the Yankees parted ways with Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy, Brian Bruney, Mike Dunn, Chien-Ming Wang and Josh Towers. Let’s break this down pitcher by pitcher:
Coke: The biggest loss of the pitchers, going solely by impact on the ‘09 team, he was likely to be the second lefty after (a hopefully healthy) Damaso Marte. Coke was traded to the Tigers along with outfielder Austin Jackson for Curtis Granderson. Apparently, the Tigers may try him in the rotation, though manager Jim Leyland sees–and rightly so–as a bullpen guy.
Kennedy: He went in the same deal as Coke, but he headed to Arizona. I’m sad to see Kennedy go. I feel like he never got a fair shake in NY and it would’ve been nice to see him compete for a bullpen spot (an Al Aceves type role) for 2010. Instead, he’ll likely end up in the Diamondbacks’ rotation, where he could do alright, as long as he’s not as timid as he was in his 2008 rotation stint. Attack the zone, Ian! Anyway, losing Kennedy made the Yankees’ depth take a hit, but that was somewhat fixed by Vazquez’s addition. And, like the other players in the two major trades of this offseason, the players brought in will definitely be more valuable than the players that left.
Bruney: Bruney was traded to the Nationals for their pick in the Rule V draft, which turned into outfielder Jamie Hoffmann. Brian would’ve been struggling to make a spot and after a few years of inconsistency–and the beginning of a relatively expensive portion of his career–the Yankees were right to cut him loose.
Dunn: Not a big loss, Dunn still needs some seasoning in AAA. If he can harness his control, he could be a decent lefty option going forward for the Braves.
Towers: This means literally nothing but the loss of some AAA fodder.
Wang: We’re all sad to see Wang go, but the move makes sense. There doesn’t seem to be room for Wang going forward. He wouldn’t be a good fit in the rotation–there’s no room there and he wouldn’t be the fifth, or even sixth, best starter on the Yankees–and his pitch-to-contact-style is not desirable for a bullpen pitcher. For the Nationals, this move is a low risk, medium reward signing. I wish CMW luck in our nation’s capital and I appreciate his pitching of ‘05-’08, but the Yankees will likely be better off without him.
Check back tomorrow for the hitting version of the offseason review.

Here’s Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, offering an “optimistic” outlook for Melky Cabrera’s 2010 prospects.
He’s been around long enough that its easy to forget that he’s just 25 years old. He gets labeled as a tweener, because he’s not a great defensive CF or a great offensive LF, but guys like this are often better than people realize, and there’s still upside left with Cabrera. He’s a really good contact hitter and strong enough to add to his current gap power levels. He doesn’t even have to add all that much power to turn himself into a legitimate 20-20 threat.
He may not look like a classic corner outfielder, but Cabrera can play, and I think Braves fans will be pleasantly surprised with what he offers. His defense is going to be a solid plus in a corner, and he’s not far from being a quintessential #2 hitter. Given his physical skills and age, don’t be surprised if he locks down an outfield spot in Atlanta for the next several years.
Like Cameron’s take above, CHONE is also high on the Yankees’ former center fielder. Sean Smith’s projection system forecasts Melky to hit .296/.367/.441 this season, a triple slash line well above his .269/.331/.385 career average. CHONE expects Melky’s walk percentage – 8.0% in 2009 – to increase from a season ago, nudging up to 9.3% in 2010, and his power to swell a bit, as well, with his career high ISO of .142 from ‘09 raising to .145 this year.
While the gains in walk percentage are possible, I doubt Melky will actually improve upon the power we witnessed in Yankee Stadium last season. His .153 ISO in Yankee Stadium seemed to be a product of the park itself – or an outright anomaly – rather than a development in player performance (his career ISO is .115). Plus, as a farmhand, Melky was rarely thought of as a prospect with much power. As Cameron says, he has upside, but it is limited. Before we begin casting Melky as a potential 20-20 player, I think we have to wait and see how he does in 2010 with Atlanta.
When you think about it, a corner outfielder with a great glove and the ability to hit 20 homers and steal 20 bases is a pretty valuable commodity. However, if such an outcome is Melky’s absolute ceiling, meaning that everything would have to go right in order for it to be reached, including him in a package for Javier Vazquez was really a no-brainer.
Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
Last week, I wrote an article about Austin Jackson and Phil Coke and how they’ll fit into their new team in Detroit. Another place that former Yankees landed in the ‘09-’10 off-season is Atlanta. Three (technically four, but A-Viz is too far off to count) 2009 Yankees have been acquired by the Braves and will call Turner Field home in 2010.
User gondeee of Talking Chop recently mused on what he thinks the Braves 25-Man Roster will look like. Each of the three former Yankees–Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and Eric Hinske–are included on gondee’s provisional 25-man roster.
As expected, neither Hinske nor Cabrera is in the starting lineup. The former is blocked at first by new acquisition Troy Glaus at first base, all-time-great Chipper Jones at third base, and both Matt Diaz in LF and ultra-prospect Jason Heyward in right. Cabrera is blocked at the corners by those same two players and in center by Mike Francesa’s favorite, Nate McLouth. Gondee on Hinske and Melky’s spots on the bench:
With Heyward in the everyday lineup and Melky and Hinske on the bench I really like how strong our bench becomes. Both strong and extremely flexible. Flexible not only in the positions that can be played, but also in the combination of power and speed and good defense. This could be the strongest bench the Braves have had since the days of Gerald Williams.
I agree with Gondee’s assessment here; we’ve all always said that Melky is a perfect fourth OF–he can play all three positions and has (at least) the skill to not embarrass himself completely at the plate–and his status as a great fourth OF won’t change just because he’s changing leagues. Despite a respectable .749 OPS against RHP last year, Matt Diaz’s career OPS vs. RHP is only .722, so if he continues to struggle, Melky could get a chance to start again. It’s worth noting, though, that his OPS vs. RHP is only .730. As for Hinske, he represents corner flexibility and good pop off the bench for Atlanta. I think most of us would take a bench player with a career .336 OBP and a .184 IsoP
All in all, Hinske and Cabrera should do very well for the Braves’ bench in 2010. They may not put up monster numbers, but they’ll be among the better bench players in the National League.
Interestingly enough, the author has Mike Dunn making the Braves out of Spring Training. He would join Billy Wagner and Eric O’Flaherty to be third LHP out of the bullpen. As the third lefty–and seventh man overall–Dunn probably won’t get much action, at least early on, but I’m not sure if starting Dunn in the Majors is a great idea. Like Austin Jackson on the hitting side, Dunn probably needs another half of a season in AAA.
A converted outfielder, Dunn needs to work on his control. In a very small sample size in ‘09, Dunn walked five batters in just four innings and has a career BB/9 of 4.0 in the Minors. The latter is not that bad, especially considering the 9.4 K/9 in the minors (as well as five ML K’s in ‘09), but he could still use some work. One has to wonder if getting consistent work for Atlanta’s AAA affiliate for the sake of polish would be better than infrequent work for Dunn, even if it is at the highest level.
The Braves and two former Yankees were in the news today, and it seems that the Braves may have 2/3 of the 2009 Yankees outfield patrolling Turner Field in 2010. First comes news about Melky Cabrera, from ESPN:
Atlanta Braves outfielder Melky Cabrera avoided salary arbitration and accepted a one year offer worth $3.1 million from the club, sources familiar with the situation told ESPNdeportes.com.
This seems to be a fair deal for Cabrera, who was worth 7.3 Million last year according to Fangraphs. Melky is a slightly above average bat in CF and slightly below average in left. Defensively, he is likely about average or a bit below average in CF and above average in LF. Add it up, and you have a league average player who is certainly worth 3.1 million dollars. I was always a fan of Melky, even when I questioned his ability to succeed in New York, and wish him all the best in Atlanta.
The second bit of news was regarding Johnny Damon. Dave O’Brien of the AJC reported the following:
Braves are still pursuing Johnny Damon, and it could happen now that his price has presumably shrunk along with his market.
With the Yankees reportedly out of money to the extent that they cannot afford Xavier Nady, let alone Damon, it seems that Atlanta is the only suitor left in the Damon derby. If Atlanta offers Damon a 2 year deal for 7 million per year, or a 1 year deal at 8 or 9 million, they will likely land the lefty bat they are looking for.
The Braves have already brought Eric Hinske aboard, and he will likely serve in a similar role to the one he held with the Yankees. If they want to complete the 2009 Yankee outfield and give Brian Cashman uber-prospect Jason Heyward for Nick Swisher, I am sure Brian would oblige them.
In case you have been under a rock for the last 12 hours, the Yankees have reacquired RHP Javier Vazquez and LHP Boone Logan from the Braves for OF Melky Cabrera, LHP Michael Dunn, and RHP Arodys Vizcaino. Yankee fans probably remember Vazquez best for his shaky 2004 season, which saw him get off to a strong first half start (even making the All Star team) and struggle mightily in the 2nd half of the season, including the playoffs (giving up an infamous grand slam to Johnny Damon). Based on his 2004 season, the criticism of Vazquez was that he was not mentally tough enough to handle playing in New York, and people who believe that to be the case will likely be outraged at this acquisition.
For those who weren’t following the NL closely this season, Vazquez was one of the top 5 pitchers in the National League, going 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA. In 219 1/3 innings, he had 238 strikeouts against only 44 walks, with a 1.03 WHIP and a career-low 20 home runs allowed. It was a potential Cy Young caliber season, and he finished 4th in the voting (behind Tim Lincecum, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright). It was a career year for Vazquez, even better than his superb 2003 with Montreal that caused the Yankees to trade for him the first time around. While Vazquez’s ERA is likely to rise moving to the AL and Yankee stadium, I’m going to look at his stats to see if he is likely to be a better pitcher than the 4.91 ERA that he put up in 2004. Was 2004 the norm, or an exception to an otherwise impressive career? Or was 2009 a fluke? To Fangraphs, we go. Analysis after the jump.
Way back in the day, I used to write the blog Fire Joe Torre. My argument was basically (with some hyperbole thrown in): the Yankees can do better than Torre, even if they won a lot of games with him. They’re slowly losing their dominance. The fans love Joe Torre. The media loves him. The team loves him. He’s still far from the best manager they could find. Therefore, if they were really serious about winning, they would ditch the good feelings and make the move that they really needed to make: fire Torre, and hire a good manager.
The argument that I want to make in this post is a little different. The Yankees just won the World Series. For the sake of egos, fans, the media, conventional wisdom and inertia, they can probably afford to take the second-best option on the playing field once or twice and still have a pretty good shot at the World Series. I still think that they should do absolutely everything they can to maximize their chance of winning, so I believe that Curtis Granderson should play left field and Brett Gardner should play center field.
Greg Fertel at Pending Pinstripes made a similar argument last week. He noticed how strong Gardner’s defense projects as, and how underrated his offense was in 2009, and compares Gardner to Jason Bay favorably. While that doesn’t really pass the “smell test” to me, I don’t think that Brett Gardner is all that bad. In fact, I think he is a lot better than Melky Cabrera.
Unfortunately, the snow has put a dent in my weekend plans, so I can’t go into any real fancy statistical analysis here. I’m working from a family member’s netbook. But I’m going to put up two tables: Brett Gardner’s last couple of years, and Melky Cabrera’s last couple of years, via BR:
Brett Gardner, Minors:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 22 | 2 Teams | A_adv-AA | 118 | 529 | 449 | 87 | 134 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 35 | 58 | 12 | 70 | 90 | .298 | .395 | .370 |
| 2007 | 23 | 2 Teams | AA-AAA | 99 | 448 | 384 | 80 | 108 | 18 | 8 | 1 | 26 | 39 | 7 | 54 | 75 | .281 | .369 | .378 |
| 24 | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre | AAA | 94 | 426 | 341 | 68 | 101 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 32 | 37 | 9 | 70 | 76 | .296 | .414 | .422 | |
| 5 Seasons | 388 | 1754 | 1467 | 300 | 424 | 55 | 28 | 9 | 125 | 156 | 31 | 238 | 291 | .289 | .389 | .383 | |||
Brett Gardner, Majors:
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 25 | NYY | 108 | 284 | 248 | 48 | 67 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 5 | 26 | 40 | .270 | .345 | .379 |
Melky Cabrea, Majors:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 21 | NYY | AL | 130 | 524 | 460 | 75 | 129 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 50 | 12 | 5 | 56 | 59 | .280 | .360 | .391 | .752 |
| 2007 | 22 | NYY | AL | 150 | 612 | 545 | 66 | 149 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 73 | 13 | 5 | 43 | 68 | .273 | .327 | .391 | .718 |
| 2008 | 23 | NYY | AL | 129 | 453 | 414 | 42 | 103 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 37 | 9 | 2 | 29 | 58 | .249 | .301 | .341 | .641 |
| 2009 | 24 | NYY | AL | 154 | 540 | 485 | 66 | 133 | 28 | 1 | 13 | 68 | 10 | 2 | 43 | 59 | .274 | .336 | .416 | .752 |
| 5 Seasons | 569 | 2148 | 1923 | 250 | 518 | 90 | 12 | 36 | 228 | 44 | 14 | 171 | 246 | .269 | .331 | .385 | .716 | |||
I think that a couple of things are self-evident, that are worth remembering. First off, Brett Gardner had a pretty good rookie season with the bat. He battled through injuries, but hit .270/.345/.379, which along with his baserunning makes him a decent enough option at center field. Melky Cabrera wasn’t much better, despite having his best season ever in his fourth full campaign in the major leagues. In his two previous seasons, Melky was much worse with the bat than Brett Gardner. On defense, and the basepaths, there is no argument that Brett Gardner is a far superior player.
If Brett Gardner improves even a little bit, he should be on the team over Melky Cabrera. I included Gardner’s minor league statistics to illustrate just how good he was while down there, especially at Triple-A. A .360 OBP year from Gardner is well within the realm of possibility. With full playing time, you’d probably also see 70+ stolen bases. Basically, I’ll echo what I got some heat for saying in 2007: Brett Gardner is basically Jacoby Ellsbury, but Ellsbury doesn’t know how to play defense, and Gardner does. He should play.
But if they were really serious about winning, the Yankees wouldnt stop there. Brett Gardner shoudn’t only play over Melky Cabrera, he should take Curtis Granderson’s assumed spot in center field. Granderson is a fine player, a fine person, and a decent center fielder. Years ago, he ranked among the best in the league by UZR (which has its flaws, but we don’t really have a better measure), and while he has slowed down a bit lately, Granderson still is an above-average player at the position. I don’t want to get into a statistical debate here: we can all pretty much agree that Brett Gardner is a better center fielder than Curtis Granderson.
At that point of logic, the decision should be easy. Granderson should take his good speed for a center fielder and become a much stronger center fielder. Brett Gardner should play center. Given the current roster construction, this is the best way for Joe Girardi to deploy his roster.
But does it matter? If Granderson is 10 + X in left field, shouldn’t Gardner just be 15 + X? No, it doesn’t work that way. Center field not only requires more range, it affords more opportunities. Brett Gardner will get more chances to use his awesome speed at that position, and that difference will manifest in real runs. How many runs over the course of a season? You can probably guess as well as me, because I have no clue. But the logic tells me some runs will be saved, and that’s all that matters to me.
The Red Sox just got John Lackey. They may get Adrian Gonzalez. Its time to get serious. Granderson will get over it. Melky fans will get over it. Do what makes the team on the field best, and screw everyone’s feelings.
Merry Christmas.
With the Yankees apparently closing in on a deal to acquire All-Star center fielder Curtis Granderson from the Tigers, the question becomes: What will the Yankees do next to complete their outfield. As I see it, they have 4 realistic options.
1) Sign Mike Cameron to play LF, have Melky move to right, and have Swisher DH. When the DH is needed for Posada or one of the infielders, move Swisher to right and put Melky on the bench. This would be a much better defensive team than last year and would have a lot more roster flexibility, but would lose some offense going from Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui to Granderson and Cameron. They would also get a ton of strikeouts from that outfield. In this scenario, it might make sense to bring in Xavier Nady or Reed Johnson to rotate with Melky and spell Granderson against the very toughest lefties.
2) Sign Damon to DH and have Melky in LF. When the DH is needed, Damon plays left and Melky sits. This option might provide the best mix of offense and defense for the Yanks, as they will have improved defensively from 2009 without losing a ton at the plate.
3) Sign Matsui to DH, with Melky being the everyday left fielder. This is probably their worst option, being that when the DH is needed, Matsui will sit and another sub will join Melky at the bottom of the order.
4) Sign Matsui to DH, and sign one of the cheaper outfielders to split LF with Melky (Nady, R. Johnson, Thames). Basically, this allows you to replace Melky in LF with a better bat on days that Matsui is on the bench.
Personally, I like the first two options, but I could understand a preference for Matsui over Damon. Thoughts?
