Any basketball fan or coach is familiar with the phenomenon where you watch a player on your team taking a ridiculously poor shot and exclaim something like, “What the hell are you…. good shot, good shot!” as the bad shot somehow swishes through the net. This was how I felt as I watched Melky Cabrera butcher his way through center field tonight, only to yet again pull heroics out of his prodigious backside in the eighth inning and propel the Yankees to victory.
Watching Melky Cabrera play center field lately is an exercise in frustration. In the past, he has gone through some streaks where he seems locked in, and gets to a decent number of balls, but he has been just plain awful this season, and I think it’s time to close the book on any notion that Melky Cabrera can ever be a full-time center fielder. He doesn’t have great range to begin with, and half the time he acts like a complete space cadet, getting some of the worst jumps I’ve ever seen from a center fielder. Joba started the night well, and looked to be cruising until he allows a couple of sky-high harmless looking popups that hang in the air for about 10 seconds before finally dropping in front of Melky. It’s no wonder Joba feels like he can’t pitch to contact and he has to waste pitches trying for the strikeout.
On the year, Melky and Brett Gardner have an almost identical OPS (.786 to .788), but Gardner is a much, much better fielder and base runner. His UZR is 8.6 runs higher than Melky’s and he has 17 steals to Melky’s 5 (they’ve both been caught twice). Gardner’s speed is such a factor that he changes the delivery of the pitcher on base, creating a disruption no one else on the Yankees can. Add to all these arguments the fact that the two players are going in opposite directions (Melky with OPS of .777 and .679 in May & June to BG’s .955 & .918) and I think it’s clear that Gardner NEEDS to start 5 out of every 6 games in center field.
Mr. Moto in Danger Island movies
This race is too close to be screwing around with Melky in center. Melky is a nice 4th outfielder who can play 3 times a week, spelling each OF position once, and we know he can come up with some late game heroics and be a terrific ph bat off the bench, but it’s time to play your best players. It’s time for Brett Gardner to play every day.
Joe Girardi certainly appears to be riding the hot hand in center field and right now the hot hand is certainly Mr. Melky Cabrera. The Yankees are certainly glad that they didn’t DFA Melky at the beginning of the season when it appeared they had too many outfielders and the Melkman was out of options (something I, to my embarassment) thought they should at least consider at that time). So far this season, Melky is hitting a robust .327 with a .400 OBP, a .571 SLG, and a healthy 150 OPS+. I’m sure any of us would love for Melky to keep posting these kinds of numbers but can he keep it going?
At only 24, he certainly is still at an age where breakouts happen. Is this kind of production unprecedented for Leche, or has he had months like this before? Let’s take a look at his line. You only have to go back to this time last year to see that he’s had big starts before. Last March/April, he was .299, .370, .494, 135 – very nice numbers, with slightly lower numbers across the board, but with 90+ plate appearance compared to only 55 for this season.
His biggest month (with 90+ plate appearances) came in July ‘07 with a hearty .368, .410, .528 line and a 147 OPS+. This stacks up very comparably to this year (with about 70 more pa’s). He continued to mash in August of that year: .306, .350, .468, 111, though with less power and OBP. Melky also had a hot July and August in ‘06 when he went .313, .358, .475, 110 in July and .311, .397, .453, 123 in August.
What does all this prove? Well, it doesn’t PROVE anything, I guess, but it does show Melky as a streaky hitter who has had these kinds of runs before. Only time will tell whether he’s finally put it all together or not. Typically, his streaks will last 2 months at most, so if he’s still going at the end of June, it’s a good sign. Another good sign is that he’s putting together high average, high OBP and high slugging. He’s only had +.300 avg, +.400 OBP, and +.500 SLG in one other month of his career – usually he sacrifices power to raise his average or gets power happy and his OBP plummets.
In watching him, I must say, that he looks very relaxed up there, and he’s hitting the ball hard everywhere. He’s definitely not up there slapping at the ball and he’s not overswinging either. Yes, we’ve seen this before, but he’s young enough to still have a breakthrough. If he’s 130 OPS+ in July, I’ll be thrilled.
Whodathunk Godzilla would be taken out, not be Mothra, King Kong, or some other mutated monstrosity, but by balky knees? Joe Girardi said today that Matsui can only pinch hit for the time-being, according to this article from the AP.
Is Matsui done?
Tough to say. He’s only 34, but has played a LOT of games. The man played over 1700 straight games, after all. There are a lot of miles on that body. Matsui missed most of 2006 because of a wrist injury, but he bounced back to play 143 games in 2007. In June of 2008, however, his knees started to bark, and he’s really never been the same since. Hideki played only 93 games that year and underwent knee surgery to fix the problem after the end of the seaseon. Knee problems are notoriously tricky and it seems like a bad sign that he’s experiencing trouble soo soon after the beginning of the season.
So the Yankees have gone from having an embarassment of riches in the OF/DH department to fielding a lineup where Melky Cabrera is suddenly a regular starter. How did this happen? There are still some decent free agent bats available, as Moshe’s article, here, details, but I suspect the Yanks will give Melky a shot at regular duty.
The Melkman is coming off of a successful Spring with +.300 average, and a game today where he smashed his first homer of the year. The Nady news is not conclusive yet, so he might even be back, and, though it seems like forever since Matsui was himself, I’m sure Girardi would love to have him back in the fold. Austin Jackson is also tearing up AAA pitching, so if worst came to worst, they could give the kid a shot. I think that Cash secretly relishes the opportunity to raise Melky’s trade value, so I don’t think he’s in any huge hurry to pick up an Edmonds or Pena type. I think Melky gets every opportunity to show that he’s got major league ability before Cash pulls the trigger on anything, though if Oakland begins panicking about their finances, Holliday could possibly look too good to resist. What do you guys think Cash should do?
Manager Joe Girardi continues to make the fans happy as he names Brett Gardner the starting Yankee centerfielder, according to the NY Post. “It’s not going to be day by day, Gardy is our center fielder,” Girardi said. “He brings a little more speed to the lineup and defensively he brings a little more speed. Offensively, they were pretty even this spring and Gardy will steal more bases.” Melky hit .340 this Spring to Gardner’s .385.
