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What Kind Of Deal Would You Give Carl Crawford?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 23 Responses »
Feb 232010


From John Heyman:

One reason the Yankees were reluctant to go for a two-year deal for Johnny Damon might have had little to do with Damon and been a greater reflection of what they think of Carl Crawford. The Yankees love him. Crawford is almost sure to be too rich for the low-revenue Rays, and the Yankees jump to the head of the class for interested teams. Remember, too, that the Yankees passed on Matt Holliday. It all seems to set up nicely for Crawford.

I am not certain that the Yankees are in fact “in love” with Crawford, as this might be posturing from Boras to explain why Damon is suiting up for another club. However, if the Yankees are interested in Crawford, I would be loathe to give him more than 4 years. Furthermore, if the Yankees only have room in the budget for one large deal, I think Cliff Lee might be a better long-term investment. I will address Lee at a later point, but let’s take a look at what concerns me about Crawford.

1) Crawford, who is entering his age 28 season, is coming off a career year. He was worth 5.5 wins in 2009 according to Fangraphs, with his next highest number coming in 2005 (4.9). However, Crawford’s 2009 represented a major bounce-back for him, as he was coming off two seasons in which he was about a 3 win player, after 3 years of being close to 5 wins a season. If Crawford wants to be paid like a 13-15M player, then a longer deal might make sense. But if he wants to inch closer to the 24.9M he was worth in 2009, I would hope that the Yankees stay away or insist on a short-term deal.

2) Crawford’s skills depend on his legs. His offense is built upon speed, as he has a career .772 OPS that illustrates his mediocre batting eye and unspectacular power. He uses stolen bases and taking the extra base to maximize his offensive output. Furthermore, much of his value comes from his excellent left field defense. Any deal that carries him past his age-32 season would be risking that Crawford begins to slow down, which could result in a significant loss of value.

Of course, a strong 2010 could assuage the first fear, but would also drive Crawford’s price up significantly. Additionally, there are some trends in Crawford’s numbers, particularly an upward trend in OBP, that suggest his aging might not be an issue. It is not that I do not like Crawford or think that he would be a bad fit. That said, I preferred Matt Holliday to Crawford when the question was raised this offseason, but Holliday received an extremely pricey contract that I certainly understand passing on. If Crawford wants to approach Holliday’s deal, the Yankees should sit this one out.

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Boras used Yanks to obtain Holliday's deal?

Posted by Chris H. at 3:26 pm 6 Responses »
Jan 072010

Though the Yankees were never really in on Matt Holliday, their financial edge might have helped to scare the Cardinals into providing him with a seven-year deal worth $120 million, which they’ll be paying for through 2029.

According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, Scott Boras, in the Holliday negotiations with St. Louis, put forth the idea that his client could accept “a one-year deal in search of a better free-agent market” next winter. Rosenthal then adds that if this did occur, if the Oklahoma native was open to a one-year deal, “[s]ome team — most likely the Yankees or Red Sox — might have signed Holliday for say, one year and $20 million” (KR’s salary figure is obviously an estimate).

While this seems like an altogether unlikely idea as Holliday, in the past, has stated how much he values organizational security and, in addition to that, such a one-year contract could put the outfielder’s financial future at great risk if he were to injure himself, according to Rosenthal, the Cardinals actually believed Boras and “their fear of losing Holliday prompted them to award him a seven-year contract.” This occurred even though the Yankees have outwardly stated that they are looking to lower payroll in 2010 and have acted accordingly with regards to that statement. Even if the Cardinals feared losing Holliday to Boston more than New York, the one-year idea still appears to be extremely far fetched as the Red Sox aren’t likely to extend their payroll by $20 million or so.

But, this is why Boras is a great agent to his faithful clientele. Often, he seems to be the one holding all of the cards and, in general, he usually holds the best hand. As I noted yesterday, perhaps this is why the Yankees — if they are still interested in bringing Johnny Damon back — opted to handle the Damon situation with a firm, hardline approach. Maybe Brian Cashman knows that with Boras, it’s best to wait for the player to come crawling back to you.

Photo by Getty Images

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Holliday Likely Off The Table

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:59 pm 6 Responses »
Dec 302009

From Buster Olney:

Sources: The Cardinals’ offer to Holliday is believed to be over $100 million.

I am sorry, Chris, but it seems like your hope for a Holliday miracle will not be fulfilled. I never saw the Yankees getting involved on Holliday, but as the offseason proceeded, it looked like he might be had for a song. It would not have shocked me to see Brian Cashman swoop in at the last moment to steal the best hitter on the market for a bargain rate. However, a deal of at least 5 years and 100 million is much too high for the Yankees to get involved. They simply have too many long term commitments to make one of that value to a left fielder.

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Cards offer Holliday 8 years, $128M

Posted by Chris H. at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Dec 152009

With John Lackey, Roy Halladay, Mike Cameron and Hideki Matsui removed from the market, and with former Red Sox Jason Bay poised to sign with the Mets, one cannot help but to wonder about Matt Holliday’s future. The market for his services has essentially thinned out in just a few days, as the BoSox — with a hole in left field — went with a defense-first approach by signing Cameron and Lackey, while the Mets seem more interested in Bay’s ability to pull the ball in Citi Field (they like his power more than Holliday’s). The Yankees, who were, at one point or another, rumored to be suitors for all of the aforementioned players, stood pat yesterday — they did not even attempt to match Matsui’s offer from the Halos — and many wonder whether or not the team is perhaps saving for the slugging Holliday.

This belief certainly makes sense, especially after Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune recently noted that other organizations were suspicious of the Yankees’ decision to publicize their desire to lower the club’s 2010 payroll. Apparently, to many, the indiscreet nature of the move seems more like a bargaining strategy rather than an actual gesture of impending financial restraint. However, if the Yankees are, indeed, saving their chips while quietly hoping and waiting for Matt Holliday’s price to fall, then Brian Cashman and co. could just be out of luck.

Last night, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the Cardinals have “intensified discussions” with Holliday’s representation and that they have since altered their original offer, which was put forth last Wednesday, to the left fielder. Strauss notes that the newly revamped proposal — changes were made due to Scott Boras’ dislike of the initial offer — presented to Holliday is “worth around $16 million a season” over “at least eight seasons,” making it the richest offer in Cardinals history (that will change once Albert Pujols is a free agent, I’m sure). If Holliday were to accept the deal — and he would be crazy not to — then the Cardinals would be committed to paying the Oklahoma native $16 million when he’s 38 years old. Holliday seems to like long-term security and the proposal constructed by St. Louis, assuming that it features a no-trade clause, seems to provide him that and then some. On top of that, Strauss also states that Holliday “prefers a return to St. Louis,” according to a source “familiar with his thinking.”

For those who wish to see the burly batter in the Bronx next season, none of this is obviously good news. An eight-year deal worth $128 million is certainly a sizable contract to say the least. In fact, despite the Yankees’ seemingly endless supply of dollars, with a number of hefty deals of their own already in tow, it appears unlikely that the team would offer a similar contract, as an eight-year obligation is an extremely heavy burden (although $16 million per, at least for the first few years, would be a bargain for Holliday’s production). At this point, due to the sheer length of the proposal and the unlikelihood of receiving a similar offer, Holliday appears bound for St. Louis (yet again).

This, then — losing Matt Holliday — in all probability, means another year or two with Johnny Damon and, in addition to that, a deal for pitcher Ben Sheets (and possibly Nick Johnson for the role of DH). If the Yankees cannot use their funds on the best (i.e., most complete) free agent left fielder in the game, I would expect them to effectively spread those resources around in order to plug their current holes with short-term fixes. It’s not a bad route to take, however, after losing Hideki Matsui’s bat, it certainly not as productive, at least from an offensive point of view.

Photo by the AP

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For Holliday, security is key

Posted by Chris H. at 5:49 pm 9 Responses »
Dec 122009

From Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Dispatch, we learn that the Cardinals have extended a formal offer to free agent left fielder, Matt Holliday. According to Strauss, “a source familiar with the process said it does not offer an average annual value of $18 million,” and Holliday is “seeking no-trade protection as part of any deal.” This information will likely be prevalent to the Yankees if they are, indeed, open to signing the Oklahoma native, although, for financial reasons — yes, even the Yankees have payroll concerns — it’s unlikely (but such a signing can’t be ruled out).

Remarkably, for Holliday, as unbelievable as this may sound, average annual salary has always been discussed as a secondary issue. In the past, he has candidly noted that his main priority as a free agent would be to acquire security via a long-term deal, one with a no-trade clause attached.

During spring training in 2008, when the Rockies offered Holliday a 4-year deal worth $82M (before the market crashed), he rejected the proposal because of the lack of years provided by Colorado, and because the deal was devoid of no-trade protection. “How many years is the bottom line,” Holliday noted last September when discussing the rejected contract. “The offer doesn’t even have to be market value. But half of the years that I could get on the open market, to me, is not in the same ballpark. What about when they won’t give you a no-trade clause,” he added, “and the first chance that comes up where they want to trade you, they just trade you?”

Expounding on the issue of security, Holliday stated, “The advantage of being a free agent and having a long-term deal is the security of staying in one place, right? So you can raise your family and be a part of that community… If you get a chance to entertain offers of six or seven years with a no-trade clause, you can have a chance to live a normal life for six or seven years in one city.” Thus, to Matt Holliday, the virtues of free agency revolve around long-term comfortability for him and his family. Sure, money is a big part of that, too, but geographical security — knowing you will remain in one city for 6-7 years — might be more fundamental.

These are all good things for the Yankees, who have an opening in left field. While I doubt the Steinbrenners will open the vault and pay $18M per year, perhaps if Cashman offered Holliday a $115-120M contract over 7 years, with the deal backloaded a bit — it would give the team wiggle room for a DH or SP this season, plus Alex Rodriguez will be making $10M less by the end of the deal and Derek Jeter will be gone — and a no-trade clause adorned, then the team could make something happen. That’s a lot of money, obviously, however, Holliday would be worth it assuming he maintains previous levels of production (he’s been worth nearly $30M per, on average, over the past 3 years). Perhaps the added no-trade clause, the desire to play in New York, and the annual playoff trips will be enough to sway the burly left fielder to join the Bombers. It’s a long-shot, and Scott Boras will likely be against the offer, but it can’t hurt to try.

Photo by the AP

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Will Matt Holliday Struggle To Find A Mega-Contract?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 9:00 am 35 Responses »
Dec 092009

This time last year, the Mark Teixeira rumors were in full swing. The Orioles had offered him 140 million. The Nationals and Red Sox were reportedly offering him similar deals. The Angels were trying to get him to stay. But the Yankees swept in with a mega-offer and won the bidding at 8 years, 180 million. That’s a huge contract. Bigger than it feels. Part of the reason that Teixeira got it was because so many teams were willing to shell out the big cash for him. Had the Yankees not stepped in, there would have still been ample competition to up the price tag.

This year, we appear to be observing something different. We’re knee-deep in the winter meetings, and over a dozen teams are “interested” in Matt Holliday, but we’ve heard almost no news about teams preparing large dollar contracts for him. I haven’t heard one offer rumored, and no team appears to be actively negotiating with Holliday. This should come at no surprise: in a recession, most teams are aiming to reduce payroll, not add to it. The big buyers like the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox appear to be looking for cheaper options, and large-market teams like the Cubs, Astros, Tigers, White Sox and Phillies don’t look ready to spend.

At this point, speculation has to center around Seattle, the Mets, and maybe St. Louis to be the favorites for Holliday. They all have the payroll room and the need for the slugger. However, this doesn’t seem like a group ready to spend huge dollars, does it? St. Louis has always been responsible with contracts, and the Mets already have 110+ million on their payroll committed. Seattle has a lot more flexibility, but the top-end of an acceptable payroll for them is smaller than for the other teams, and they still need to extend Felix Hernandez.

I think that the Yankees may get back in to the fray here. The knock against Matt Holliday has never been that he is a bad player, just that the Yankees don’t want to put another huge contract on the payroll long term. With fewer bidders, his price will come down. How about a 5 year, 90 million dollar, backloaded contract? Sure, its a far cry from Soriano or Wells money, but it’ll sure be the biggest contract handed out this season. And Holliday won’t be too much of a geezer when the deal is over, so he can seek another job somewhere. According to Fangraphs, Holliday has been well worth that money over the past 4 years.

And seriously, imagine this lineup:

Jeter SS
Granderson CF
Teixeira 1b
Alex Rodriguez 3b
Matt Holliday LF
Jorge Posada C
Swisher RF
Cano 2b
Someone DH

And really, it wouldn’t be that much of a payroll increase over 2009. While the Yankees have pledged to reduce payroll in 2010, they are swimming in revenue with the new Stadium. Joe at RAB made the payroll argument really well last night,

In the end, I’m not sure the Yankees will stick with their $200 million payroll projection. They say it now, and maybe that gives them some leverage in negotiations, but if the Yankees find themselves in a position where improving the team means going over that target mark, I don’t think they’ll hold back. They’re already deep into this, too deep to cut back when they might need one more move to put them over the top.

What do you guys think? What is the maximum price you would be willing to pay for Matt Holliday?

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Yanks considered drafting Holliday in '98

Posted by Chris H. at 2:30 pm 5 Responses »
Nov 302009

While adding Matt Holliday to the Yankees lineup has its fair share of detractors and supporters, from Anthony McCarron, we learn that the organization could have added Holliday to the team 10 years ago via the ’98 draft. According to McCarron, “Holliday could have been a Yankee out of high school,” for the Yankees “considered drafting him in 1998 even though he had a scholarship to play football and baseball at Oklahoma State.” However, the Yankees thought that Holliday, a quarterback at Stillwater High, would opt for college over a major league career, and they ultimately chose Drew Henson over Holliday, based on those concerns. These same apprehensions allowed the Rockies to draft Holliday in the 7th round of the ’98 draft, as he fell due to questions surrounding his signability.

Of course, Holliday went on to play baseball in Colorado and has been one of the best outfielders in the National League since then, while Henson—along with Jackson Melian, Brian Reith and Ed Yarnall—was traded to the Reds in 2000 for Mike Frank and Denny Neagle. Henson was later reacquired from Cincy the following year and saw a total of 9 major league at-bats with the Yankees between 2002 and 2003 before pursuing a football career in 2004 (Henson, like Holliday, was also a quarterback). Interestingly, Holliday and Henson (I believe) are both free agents right now.

I wonder who the Yankees would rather pursue this time around…

Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

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Buster Onley-Yanks Not Interested in Holliday

Posted by Steve S. at 8:03 am 22 Responses »
Nov 172009

ESPN’s Buster Onley has a brand-spankin new Twitter account for this off season and has posted this tidbit late yesterday:

NYY are not interested in signing Holliday. They’ll talk to Boras to keep other bidders honest, but corner outfield not a priority for them.

Can’t say this surprises me one bit. The Yanks spent lavishly last off season (while still lowering payroll) in what was a strong free agent class. But this year’s edition is both weaker overall and the Yanks don’t have any glaring needs like they did last year. Also, coming off a World Series championship they have some equity with the fans and media, and therefore an opportunity to do some things they’ve been meaning to do for a while.

I’ve been on record saying I think the Yanks will lower payroll substantially this off season, and will likely lower it further next year. I think there are a few reasons for this. Brian Cashman’s control of Baseball Ops, Hal Steinbrenner not being his father and the looming CBA negotiation with the Player’s Union in 2011.

We know that when Cashman took control of Baseball operations in 05 he set out to run the team differently than it was in years past. Rebuild the farm system, use it to fill roster needs and make trades from a position of strength. He has been far more selective in signing free agents than George ever was. Hal has a Master’s degree in Business Administration from the University of Florida and if nothing else, can therefore be expected to run the team more rationally and disciplined than his father did. Since 07 when George gave the reigns to his sons, we’ve been living in a new era of Yankee ownership, one that is still taking shape annually.

Now we get to the looming MLB labor negotiations. 2011 sounds like a way off, but most economists think we are in a ‘new normal’ which includes lack of access to credit for small businesses, high unemployment and non-existent GDP growth (when you subtract the stimulus dollars) for the foreseeable future. That means business conditions will likely still be soft when the CBA expires, and Bud Selig will be looking for union givebacks. In that environment, he will probably get some. Rules changes are almost always bad for the Yanks and almost always targeted at reigning them in financially.

This is why I think the Yanks take their payroll DOWN a few notches this off season and next, in anticipation of rules changes. Those changes could include higher Luxury tax rates, lower thresholds for paying them, international draft, hard slotting system, etc, etc. I doubt Bud will get all of that, but whatever he gets will be bad news for the Yanks. By getting their payroll down now, they won’t have to do anything drastic later. If I had to put a number to it, I’d guess the Yanks come in at 185-190 for 2010 and 175 for 2011.

That’s why when I hear fans talk about spending like crazy on guys like Matt Holliday, it strikes me as misguided. Brian Cashman took control of Baseball ops to have this team operate differently than when George was running things. People still don’t seem to get that. Hal would have taken payroll down last year, but Cash convinced him there was a unique market opportunity with CC, Tex and AJ. I think the long-rumored downsizing of the Yankee payroll starts this year, in anticipation of rules changes in 2011. I also think the Yanks will be better off as a result.

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Heyman: Yankees Like Lackey

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:19 pm 27 Responses »
Nov 092009

From Jon Heyman:

The world champion Yankees have top free-agent pitcher John Lackey on their free-agent shopping list, sources said. The Yankees aren’t expected to be as aggressive this winter on the free market as last offseason and they haven’t firmed up all their plans as yet, but one league source said of Lackey, “He’s definitely on their radar.”

Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett’s $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey. Although, one person close to Lackey — whose offer to stay with the Angels this spring was for less than $40 million over three years on top of this year’s $10 million salary — indicated the longtime Angels right-hander sees himself in a higher echelon than Burnett. Lackey was 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA for the Angels last year and has been their ace for some of his eight seasons there.

Even if postseason hero Andy Pettitte returns to the Yankees — and he told a few teammates he believes he’ll come back for one more year, though there’s no definitive word on this — the Yankees envision themselves looking at the starting-pitching market since they are uncertain whether Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will start or work out of the bullpen next year. The Yankees used a three-man rotation in the playoffs out of necessity.

I am a huge John Lackey fan, so I would not be upset to see the Yankees bring him in. However, assuming Andy Pettitte comes back, wouldn’t that money be better spent on Matt Holliday? Personally, I think the Yankees should sign their own guys to short term deals and sit out this free agency class, but if they do decide to hand out “Burnett” money, it would be better spent on getting younger in LF/DH rather than adding another starter to a team that should be fine pitching-wise in 2010.

Agree? Disagree?

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Matt Holliday wants to be a Yankee?

Posted by Chris H. at 4:00 pm 70 Responses »
Oct 182009

From Ken Davidoff (Newsday):

A quick recap: According to a person in the loop, Matt Holliday’s top choices in free agency are: 1) Yankees; and 2) Mets. The Oklahoma native is apparently not intimidated by New York.As of now, I’d say the Yankees don’t want to make another large purchase like that, in the wake of last winter’s shopping spree – and if they win it all, then the pressure from the yakosphere (trademark Neil Best) to get Holliday should alleviate.

Matt Holliday, like Mark Teixeira, really is a good fit for the Yankees. Whereas the Jason Bay’s offense has likely peaked this season (he’ll be 32 next season), Matt Holliday, at 29, has yet to reach that mark.

This year, his numbers in Oakland were very good (.286/.378/.454) despite a miserable April (.240/.288/.360)—he was probably getting used to AL baseball and his new team—and once he returned to the NL, where the pitching was once again familiar, his stats were off the charts. He hit .353/.419/.604 in 63 games with St. Louis. That doesn’t mean he’s just an NL player, rather, it proves what “knowing pitchers” can do for your overall numbers.

Add Holliday’s exceptional defense—he’s 7.4 runs above average, range-wise—to his offensive talent and, on the season, you have a complete player, one that’s worth 5.6 WAR. If he were on the Yankees this year, he would be the 3rd best player on the team, behind only Derek Jeter and CC Sabathia (according to WAR). Furthermore, given his mixture of speed (14 SB), power and patience, he would be an excellent number 2 hitter for the Yankees (sorry, Johnny).

If Cashman and co. intend on adding another player to man left field for them, Matt Holliday is certainly the best choice. Whether he’s the most viable option, financially, though, has yet to be seen. Scott Boras is Holliday’s agent and is always looking for a massive payday. But, the Holliday family really seems to like the idea of their son in pinstripes, so perhaps that will factor into the negotiations and allow the Yankees to reel in another prized free agent this winter.

Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images

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