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Money Savers and Drainers

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Oct 262010

As I like to do every season, I’m going to compare the Yankee players’ theoretical fWAR dollars to their actual salaries and see which players gave the Yankees the most value and which players drained the most money. We’ll do batters today and pitchers tomorrow.

We’ll do the list in WAR order (nine highest), then we’ll sum it up at the end.

1. Robinson Cano, 6.4 fWAR worth $25.5MM. Salary: $9MM. Value: +$16.5MM
2. Brett Gardner, 5.4 fWAR worth $21.6 MM. Salary: $0.425MM. Value: +$21.175MM
3. Nick Swisher, 4.1 fWAR worth $16.4MM. Salary: $6.75MM. Value: +$9.65MM.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3.9 fWAR worth $15.3MM. Salary: $32MM. Value: -$16.7MM.
5. Curtis Granderson, 3.6 fWAR worth $14.3MM. Salary: $5.5MM. Value: +$8.8MM.
6. Mark Teixeira, 3.5 fWAR worth $14.00MM. Salary: $20MM. Value: -6.00MM.
7. Derek Jeter, 2.5 fWAR worth $9.8MM. Salary: $21MM. Value: -$11.2MM
8. Jorge Posada, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.7MM. Salary: $13.1MM. Value: -$3.3MM.
9. Francisco Cervelli, 1.1 fWAR worth $4.4MM. Salary: $0.418MM. Value: +$3.82MM

Value Ranks:
1. Gardner
2. Cano
3. Swisher
4. Granderson
5. Cervelli
6. Posada
7. Teixeira
8. Jeter
9. Rodriguez

Italics means negative value.

This list should really surprise no one. The Yankees’ high priced, older talent had a bad collective 2010. Brett Gardner had what will likely be his career year while making just over the league minimum, so of course he’s going to return great value. And despite our frustrations with him, Frankie Cervelli did give the Yankees a bit of value this year. I think we’ll see the Melky Plan with Francisco: hang on to him while he’s cheap, then jettison him when he starts hitting arbitration and starts making too much money.

It also turns out that the Granderson deal was not some horrid thing that should’ve been undone. Granderson is relatively cheap for next year ($8.25) but goes up a bit in 2012 and ’13 ($10, $13 option) so granting a rebound year, he should return good value next year as well.

Nick Swisher makes only $9.75 next year so assuming he can repeat this year–or do something between 2010 and 2009–he’ll probably return value again, too.

As for the guys in the red, Teixeira is the only most likely to bounce back, considering his relatively young age compared to Jeter and Rodriguez and Posada. He also plays the least physically demanding position of the three and had a down year with the bat. I don’t think we’ll see the aforementioned trio in the black unless they have monster years.

Check back tomorrow when we look at the pitchers, starters and relievers.

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Mauer Wins MVP, Tex 2nd, Jeter 3rd

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:37 pm 8 Responses »
Nov 232009

From the BBWAA:

Joe Mauer, who won an unprecedented third batting championship for a catcher and helped propel the Minnesota Twins to the American League Central title, was elected the AL Most Valuable Player for 2009 in balloting by the BBWAA.

Mauer, the first catcher to lead his league in batting average (.365), on-base percentage (.444) and slugging (.587) in the same season, was listed first on all but one of the 28 ballots cast by two writers in each league city. He was second on that other ballot to score a total of 387 points, based on a tabulation system rewarding 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third on down to one for 10th.

The top 10: Mauer, Tex, Jeter, Cabrera, Morales, Youkilis, Bay, Zobrist, Ichiro, A-Rod. I have a whole load of observations, so buckle in:

  • Just so you know where I am coming from, this was my final ballot: Mauer, Jeter, Greinke, Zobrist, Youkilis, Teixeira, Longoria, Hernandez, Cabrera, Rodriguez. Next 5: Figgins, Halladay, Verlander, Crawford, Ichiro.
  • Mauer deserved the award, and it should have been unanimous. Miguel Cabrera getting a first place vote is positively ridiculous, when it could be reasonably argued that he was not the most valuable player on his own team.
  • Let’s see if I get the logic here. The MVP is about value to your team, and therefore stats are not the be all end all, and winners should be rewarded. Then why not vote for pitchers? They help teams win, they provide “value” in that sense as well. If it is an award for hitters, then it should be about the numbers.
  • Jeter should have finished 2nd. He was 2.3 wins more valuable than Tex, a huge spread. The voters clearly do not understand positional adjustments, nor can they see past home runs or RBI’s as evaluation tools. Some have suggested that the voters are getting smarter, but I am not so sure. I think we are just seeing the effects of the buzz changing. Writers vote based on buzz, and the sabermetric community has loudly helped shaped the buzz this season. However, that buzz generally deals with who finishes first, so we see Mauer rightfully win the award while Jeter gets screwed out of 2nd place.
  • How can a pitcher who got 0 Cy Young votes (Rivera) finish ahead of the Cy Young winner?
  • Ben Zobrist was way too low. His old school numbers are great, and the saber stats show him to be a top 5 candidate. He did not receive a single top 5 vote.
  • Kendry Morales and Jayson Bay are too high. Bay was good for 3 months, as was Morales. 
  • A-Rod deserved his 10th place finish, but did not deserve the 3rd place vote he got. He was the 3rd most valuable player on his own team.
  • I love Robbie Cano, but he should not have gotten votes. 
  • Evan Longoria barely got any recognition for his excellent season.
  • Overall, Too high: Tex, Cabrera, Morales, Bay, Ichiro. Too low: Jeter, Greinke, Zobrist, Longoria, Felix, Verlander, Halladay

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Cash: Yanks Weren't in on Tex until Last Minute

Posted by Steve S. at 7:46 pm 5 Responses »
Apr 102009

Cashman tells Newsday’s Kat O’Brien that the Yanks were out of the Teixiera bidding until the very last minute, and that only when the specter of him landing with the Red Sox became obvious, did he get the go ahead from Hal. She reports:

“It was something I kept pushing, but it was not really being accepted by above me . . . I guess persistence paid off. I knocked on that door, I guess, just enough that someone finally answered. Hal really gave me the OK to pursue it over a few-day period. And at that point, I still thought the Red Sox were getting him.”

Then, to Hal:

“I know you’re not interested, but they’re going to get this guy. He’s going to fall in their lap, and he’s so perfect for us.”

. . . . and I don’t believe a word of this. I think it’s just damage control for Brian’s reputation. Cash was on the record numerous times saying there was no chance they get Tex, how fans/writers who were calling for that were being unrealistic, and then what happens? He signs Tex to a huge deal. So he’s trying to reestablish some credibility for himself for the purposes of doing similar things with prospective free agents in the future. I never believed Cash when he said he wasn’t in, because the payroll was around 180 at the time, which told me he had room.

The reality is that it’s in the Yanks interest to lie about who they are/aren’t interested in. Telling the world who they want can raise the price for some players, depending on who is is bidding on them. They usually approach free agents one of two ways:

1-The CC approach. Often used by George Stenbrenner in his heyday, you blow everyone else out of the water early with a huge bid. It looks extravagant, yet this can actually save you money by avoiding getting into bidding wars by scaring off competitors. Works best with a player who’s lukewarm on coming to NY. You make your bid irresistible.

2-The Tex approach. Tell everyone you’re not interested in the player, lay in the weeds till the last minute and then sign him at just above the market rate. The idea here is to avoid the effect the Yanks can have on a marketplace, where teams raise their bids to compete with them. It also works best on a player you know really wants to play for you.

Since the Red Sox were in on Tex, strategy #2 made the most sense. The Sox can keep pace with the Yanks in a bidding war, and will even keep bidding beyond the point where they’re serious just to screw the Yanks. By jumping in at the last minute, you pay the price the market has set without getting into any Red Sox shenanigans.

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