It is no secret that Mariano Rivera’s average velocity on both his four-seamer and his cutter was down last season. Now that he is a full year removed from shoulder surgery, an issue that seemed to hinder his arm strength for much of 2009 and cause, in part, the downturn in pitch speed, we have a reason to be optimistic about his velocity going forward. However, if his velocity remains in its current range, or falls further, there is reason to wonder about his effectiveness over the course of a new contract, which he will seek after entering free agency at the end of the year.
Some may decry the notion that Rivera’s loss in velocity impacted his year – he did pitch exceptionally well, as he usually does – but, believe it or not, Rivera’s minor decrease in pitch speed did manifest itself in his contact rates. In fact, Rivera had some of the higher contact rates in the American League a season ago. In the spirit of Alice in Wonderland, the following is a nice 3D bar chart – I love me some bar charts, man – that showcases this relationship.
Rivera’s career average velocities for his fastball (purple bar) and his cut-fastball (blue bar) are featured on the left (in mph) and, as you can see, in 2009, on the right, the two pitch speeds are down a few mph – 91.8 and 91.3 – in comparison. Conversely, but not coincidentally, the amount of contact hitters made on Rivera’s pitches outside of the zone, i.e., O-Contact% (green bar), and the amount of contact hitters made on Rivera’s pitches inside of the zone, i.e., Z-Contact% (red bar), both experienced significant increases – O-Swing of 73.2% and Z-Swing of 90.2% – when compared to the career numbers (O-Swing of 61.7% and Z-Swing of 85.9%). From this, it seems reasonable for one to then ponder a possible connection between Rivera’s downturn in velocity and his upswing in contact percentage. Essentially, when your pitches are not really as fast as they once were, there is more time for hitters to react to them.
This, of course, could relate to pitch movement, too, rather than just velocity. Rivera’s decrease in pitch speed was likely brought on by a lack of arm strength throughout the season, and this issue seemed to simultaneously lessen the movement on his fastball and cut-fastball. In 2009, according to pitch f/x, the vertical movement (up) on Rivera’s fastball was 4.83 inches and the horizontal movement (lateral, in right-handers) was 0.74 inches. Both numbers were well below average. For comparison, in 2008, Rivera’s fastball rose 7.52 inches and broke in on righties at 1.54 inches (below average but not like in 2009). That signals a significant loss of movement on the fastball which probably explains why Rivera rarely used it last season, throwing it only 7% of the time, according to FanGraphs.
The cutter, the pitch Rivera used 82% of the time last season, also experienced a loss of movement. In 2008, its vertical rise was 7.21 inches – slightly less than the average mark for that year – and its horizontal movement (in on lefties, away from righties) was 2.52 inches, a mark which was well above average. However, in 2009, its vertical rise was 6.22 inches and its vertical movement was 2.12 inches. The vertical movement was a bit below average, about an inch below, but the horizontal break was still VERY good, despite the stated loss in year-to-year movement.
This, then, the decrease in Rivera’s pitch velocity and movement explains the marked increase in his contact rates (I looked at command, too, but his BB/9 of 1.63 was still under his career mark of 2.11). The two negative trends were likely brought on by the shoulder surgery Rivera had last winter that impacted his arm strength, but I’m sure age had something to do with it, as well (to a smaller degree). Some may say, well, if his velocity and pitch movement was down, and his contact rates were up, why was he still so effective in 2009? That is a valid question, of course, and I think it is mainly because Rivera has done away with his fastball in order to use the cutter almost exclusively. Even with the lesser movement last season, the movement was still great, which says a lot about the pitch. More contact was made, a notion evidenced further by Rivera’s higher than usual line drive rate – 21.8% in 2009, up from his career mark of 16.8% – but his peripherals were still above average across the board. Rivera seemed to realize the lack of velocity issue and went with more movement instead, though the cutter had less movement than it did in the past.
As I said at the outset of this novel, if the decrease in velocity remains, or continues, it might cause some concern when Rivera enters free agency and is looking for another contract. Those concerns are understandable, as the velocity change would impact Rivera’s game, a point made by his contact rates in 2009. However, he has clearly adapted well to his current abilities, and remains as effective as ever. He’s a robot, with or without a 96 mph fastball.
Photo by Reuters
Yesterday, after throwing his first bullpen session of the spring, Mariano Rivera, a timeless fixture in the Yankees bullpen, discussed a topic which he rarely needs to address—his own fragility. The 40-year old Rivera underwent surgery prior to the 2009 season in order to remove a bothersome calcification from his right shoulder. When asked about the shoulder last spring, Rivera would flash a smile to reporters and and say that he was alright. However, after firing 21 fastballs yesterday, Rivera and his manager, Joe Girardi, finally admitted that, as a result of the calcification procedure, the greatest closer of all time did struggle to develop his arm strength well into the regular season.
“It was hard, but it wasn’t impossible,” Rivera noted when asked about the surgery’s strength-sucking affect on him last year. “I took the challenge and it worked,” he said, adding that his rehab was done during the regular season as opposed to Spring Training. Girardi furthered Rivera’s story, saying that it took “a good six weeks to two months” before Rivera’s arm strength had fully returned. “I know he’s a lot further along than he was at this time last year,” Girardi stated. “At times he couldn’t extend [his arm] early on in camp. He had none of those issues [Monday].”
This news, of course, should please Yankee fans, mainly because it helps to lessen the concern some might have regarding the velocity issues Rivera experienced a year ago. In 2009, after Rivera’s four-seam fastball and cutter had averaged 93.1 mph and 92.8 mph in 2008, the average velocity of his four-seamer dipped to 91.8 mph and the average velocity of his cutter fell to 91.3 mph (the lowest velocities on record for Rivera). When one considers Rivera’s age, the loss in velocity is significant, and could indicate a continued loss of velocity going forward. A lack of arm strength certainly gives a reason for the velocity decrease though (in part, age could still be a relevant factor), and when you look at a month-to-month view of his average velocity, Rivera’s fastball saw an uptick in speed in September and October (the cutter did not). Even if the lack of velocity is real, Rivera locates well and generates great movement to get outs. Still, we can be optimistic about his pitch velocity going forward as he is a full year removed from shoulder surgery and he will likely have better arm strength for the entire season, whereas that was not the case for 2009.
Photo by the AP
Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.
1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.
2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.
3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.
4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.
5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.
6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.
7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.
8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.
9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.
10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.
11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.
12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.
13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.
14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.
15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.
16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.
17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.
18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.
19. BP or SWB: See above.
20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.
21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.
22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.
23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.
24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.
25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.
So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.
Jonathan Papelbon loves him some Mariano Rivera.
Here’s Papelbon discussing Mariano last month, on Boston’s the Sports Hub:
“Deep down in my heart, I would love to finish my career as a Red Sox. And I think everybody pretty much knows that, but that’s a very, very hard thing to do in this day and age. And the way the game is now, I have to understand that as well. Hopefully it works out to where I can stay here for a while and win World Series and break records in a Red Sox uniform like my buddy Mo [Mariano Rivera] has done over there in [Yankees] pinstripes.”
And here he is today, discussing Mariano again during a press conference in Florida:
Did you watch the postseason after you guys were eliminated?
I didn’t watch a whole, whole lot. I tried to watch guys like [Mariano Rivera] and see what they were doing, try to keep track of it as best as I could. I didn’t watch a whole lot, like I said. But obviously Mo is one of those guys who I’ve idolized in the role, and what he’s done for the role, what he’s done himself as a closer. He’s got five rings. That speaks for itself. Everybody else that’s a closer out there is pretty much chasing him. I think he’s set the tone for what it is to be a closer, and I think he’s bridged that gap, from closers 10 years ago to closers now. He’s been able to do both and to bridge that gap. It’s fun to watch him. It’s fun to see how he goes about it, and it’s fun to kind of compete with him on a level of kind of staying up with him. If you can stay on the same field with him, you’re doing something right.
He’s had his postseason hiccups. Does that make it easier for you to put last year in context?
Of course. I’ve talked to [current Red Sox and former Yankees bullpen coach] Gary Tuck about that a lot. He was obviously with Mo for a greater part of his career. There’s a lot of little nuances that we talk about, from his game to my game. That’s what makes him who he is, and that’s what makes an athlete who they are – how they bounce back. In this game, that’s what’s going to test you to see what you’re made of. I take it all full steam ahead. It doesn’t affect me. I’m not going to take it into this season. My whole goal this season is to start a streak over again, see what happens from there.
Can you imagine pitching into your 40s?
Yeah, I can, but it’s not an easy thing to do. Mo, he just makes it look easy. He makes it look easy. Hopefully I will be able to, but only time will tell.
Like with the Joe Nathan item I posted yesterday at iYankees, it’s always fun to read of the praise heaped onto Mariano Rivera from other closers in baseball. While many of them hope to emulate his remarkable success, it is difficult to see any of them crafting a comparable resume or nearing the “aura” and “mystique” that is an intimate part of his legend. For now, as Papelbon said, everybody else is “pretty much chasing” Mariano, though I wonder if anyone can actually catch him.
Photo by John Munson/The Star-Ledger
With the expiration of their contracts looming, a future without Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera is on the minds of many Yankees fans. Today, River Ave Blues asked their Twitterati the following question: which one of the two will be easier to replace once his time as a major leaguer is up? I opined that Jeter will be more difficult to replace, and my reasoning is two-fold.
1) Jeter will leave a bigger hole. Both are of the best at their respective positions, with Rivera undisputably the greatest closer of all-time. However, a transcendent everyday player provides more value than an otherworldly closer, particularly in the regular season. Just to illustrate that point, Jeter has not notched fewer than 3.7 WAR in any season since 2001. Rivera has never had a WAR in excess of 3.2. Of course, the postseason narrows the gap a bit, as Mariano essentially becomes an everyday player during the postseason, thereby maximizing his value. Even so, I believe the edge goes to Jeter.
2) Jeter will be more expensive to replace. Replacing Jeter with someone of equal value would require the acquisition of someone like Troy Tulowitzki or Hanley Ramirez. Either player would require a huge outlay, both in terms of prospects and total contract value. Meanwhile, closers such as Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, and Jonathan Papelbon (ugh) are likely to reach free agency, and will require deals of significantly lower total value.
In sum, I believe Jeter will be more difficult to replace. Do you agree? Disagree?
Photo Credit: Reader’s Digest
Earlier this year, Justin Bopp over at Beyond the Box Score showcased a unique illustrative method termed DiamondView (it was Bopp’s creation), in order to evaluate team capabilities with regards to fielding (UZR/150), getting on base (OBP), base-running (EQBRR), and power (ISO). Last time, he provided us with the following review of the American League East using DiamondView (you can read about his methodology here). Now, for our viewing pleasure, he has created individual visuals for pitchers and the results are, once again, a lot of fun to look at.
Bopp’s personalized DiamondView evaluations for pitchers are based on command (i.e., collecting strike outs), control (i.e., preventing walks), durability (i.e., in-game and throughout the season), and batted-ball (i.e., ground ball versus fly ball) statistics. The figures are predicated upon a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the greatest and 0, of course, being the worst. The individual diamond, specific to the featured pitcher, then stretches accordingly within the fixed diamond.
With that said, here is Bopp’s DiamondView illustration for Yankees starter, A.J. Burnett:
Notice that Burnett, in 2009, was a durable pitcher as his diamond stretches towards 89 on the 0-100 scale, meaning that he went deep into games and logged a lot of innings. His strikeouts, as always, were up there at 71, however, his control was well below average at 21. He also generated, roughly, the same amount of ground balls and fly balls.
Now, here is Bopp’s DiamondView of closer, Mariano Rivera, based on his 2009 numbers:
As anticipated, Rivera’s visual is remarkable, as he inches close to 100 in every category outside of durability, which is obviously not his fault, rather, it is the result of his role. Notice how impeccable his control was last season, leading Bopp to quip, “The last time [Rivera] walked somebody was probably some grandma while crossing the street.”
In the end, Bopp’s visuals don’t tell us stuff we don’t already know. I think that much is clear (we know A.J. Burnett can be wild, we know Mariano Rivera is the epitome of control). Nonetheless, DiamondView provides an interesting and simple way to visualize meaningful statistics so as to evaluate pitcher performance. In a world where stats are sometimes shunned for their inaccessibility, the unimposing and straightforward visuals help to lessen that perception.
Joel Sherman reported this morning that Randy Winn’s 900K in contract incentives are predicated upon hitting certain amounts of at-bats against left handed pitching. Eariler today, Rob Abruzzese explained the reasoning behind the highly unusual contract, and clarified how the Marcus Thames deal figures into the equation:
This is where Marcus Thames comes in. Thames signed a one-year minor league deal for $900,000 – the exact same amount as Winn’s incentives. Coincidence? Maybe not. I’m starting to believe that the Yankees will use spring training to see exactly what they have in Jamie Hoffmann, Winn, and Thames.
If they like Winn against lefties and plan on using him in a way where he’ll reach all of his incentives, they could then send Thames down or release him and stick with Hoffmann. That way they’re paying off only $2 million plus the major league minimum for Hoffmann. Or if Winn isn’t overly impressive, they keep him as a defensive caddy and stick with Thames and they’re still paying out the same $2 million.
Either way, they’re only paying $2 million if Winn hits lefties.
This is an extremely creative contract, and I think Rob is spot on in explaining what the Yankees were thinking with all of these moves. This should make for an interesting spring training, as two veteran players in Winn and Thames will be fighting over the same 900,000 dollars. I would prefer to have Thames on the bench as a power bat than have Winn and Hoffmann both on the team, because the latter two have redundant skills. Carrying Thames and Winn provides a more diverse bench for Joe Girardi to utilize.
Speaking of Girardi, Brian Cashman discussed the Yankees’ 3 major 2011 free agents this morning, with Girardi being one of them:
When Brian Cashman looks at Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Joe Girardi, the Yankees’ GM paints his shortstop, closer and manager with the same brush.
And with spring training opening next week in Tampa, Cashman has no plans to stray from his plan of not negotiating with them. All three contracts are in the final year.
“I don’t think you can separate one from the other,” Cashman explained. “I am not saying they are the same, but the questions will come, ‘If you did one, why didn’t you do the other?’ If this was Kansas City, it would be different — but it’s not.”
I wish they would sign these three in the near future, simply because every three game losing streak by the team or poor performance by Rivera and Jeter will cause these unsettled contract situations to be dredged up by the media. However, the club has long had a policy of not negotiating with players until their contracts have expired, such that it is unlikely that any of three will feel like he is being disrespected or treated unfairly. Hopefully, all three have good seasons and next fall’s negotiations are amicable, and we can all avoid an excruciating media frenzy.
Yes, the word Yankee is all caps on purpose. You see, this morning two brothers posted a guest article over at Lohud suggesting that Derek Jeter is the greatest Yankee of all time. They were soundly ripped in the comments, as most of the commenters rightly noted that Jeter really has no case for being a better player than Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle, or Dimaggio, and may come in behind Berra as well. However, their post also discussed the off-field scrutiny and issues that Jeter faces, and within that discussion I believe there is the seed for an interesting debate. The question is, although Jeter is not the greatest baseball player to ever play for the Yankees, is he the greatest Yankee? Is he the perfect embodiment of what a Yankee should be?
He is driven by an incredible will to win, appreciates the history and tradition that the pinstripes represent, and is always respectful of those around him. He rarely does anything that reflects a me-first attitude, is a philanthropist, and does not have his personal life plastered across the news. However, players such as Mariano Rivera and Lou Gehrig could likely say the same thing. What do you think? Is Jeter the greatest Yankee?
In his latest mailbag, Bryan Hoch discusses the legendary Mariano Rivera and ponders how much longer the Yankees’ 40-year old closer can continue mowing down hitters with his patented cutter. As we all know, immediately after capturing his latest World Series title, Rivera said he would like to pitch for another five years. With free agency on the horizon for Rivera, one wonders whether or not such a statement was true. The Yankees, in my opinion, won’t give him a five or four-year deal after the season is over, as he has shown signs of aging – his velocity is down – and such an investment would just be a financial liability, however, can you really argue with a three-year deal at this point? Performance-wise, you can’t. It’ll be interesting to see how Brian Cashman handles the re-signing – I think I am correct to assume that they will re-sign him – especially with relievers receiving fewer dollars in a depressed market.
Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images
With the offseason slowly drawing to a close, it looks like the Yankees were in fact serious about maintaining a modicum of fiscal responsibility. However, some have suggested that Brian Chasman is just saving his bullets for next offseason, when there is a class of free agents that Cashman has previously professed admiration for. Dayn Perry runs through the big names, and I would like to highlight the players I think the Yankees would have interest in:
1. Joe Mauer, C
Opening Day 2011 Age: 282. Cliff Lee, LHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 323. Brandon Webb, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 324. Derek Jeter, SS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 37
These four players make up the top tier of talent, and at least one of them (Jeter) is almost certain to be in pinstripes in 2011. I strongly believe Mauer will sign in Minnesota, as their new ballpark and Mauer’s hometown roots makes this a perfect marriage. Regarding Webb, his recent shoulder injuries make him a significant risk. Although he will likely be cheaper than Lee and his groundball ways make him a solid fit for Yankee Stadium, I would stay away from him. Lee is the better option, and I think that the Yankees will be all-in on Cliff to take the rotation spot vacated by either Andy Pettitte or Javy Vazquez. I could see the Yankees offering Lee 5 years at 19 million per year. Jeter will likely get a similar salary for a reduced number of years. 4 years and 75-80 million will get it done.
5. Carl Crawford, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 296. Jayson Werth, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 328. Josh Beckett, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31Beckett is good, but let’s be objective: He’s not an ace on most staffs. Beckett’s career ERA of 3.79 is solid enough, but just three times in his career has he managed at least 200 innings in a season. It’s also worth noting that since Beckett arrived in Boston and supposedly achieved “ace-dom,” his ERA is 4.05. That’s a tick or two better than the league average, but the numbers simply don’t rise to the level of Beckett’s reputation. That said, if you’re looking for a No. 2 man, then Beckett is a reasonable choice. Just be sure pay him like a No. 2 man. Lee and a healthy Webb are both significantly better.
10. Adam Dunn, OF/DH
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31
This next tier includes a number of players who might be good fits in NY but have certain flaws that make their acquisition entirely dependent on the market. Dunn would be a bargain on a deal similar to the one he signed with Washington, as he would fit perfectly in Yankees Stadium and 2 years, 20 million would likely be less than his actual value. Similarly, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are both versatile players who add a lot both offensively and defensively. However, I would not touch either player if they required a deal more than 4 years, and even then the AAV should not exceed 14M a year. I hate Beckett, and added Perry’s note on him because it illustrates my contention that Josh is slightly overrated. That said, if the market for him bottoms out due to injury concerns and outsized demands, expect Brian Cashman to kick the tires on him.
11. Mariano Rivera
12. Manny Ramirez
13. Huston Street
15. Javier Vazquez
16. Rafael Soriano
If Javy Vazquez has a very strong year, I could see the Yankees attempting to sign the workhorse to a long term deal. However, if he is just solid, he will likely get a 3 year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million, a price the Yankees should shy away from. I could see the Yankees entering the 2011 season with Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Chamberlain, and either Andy Pettitte or a free agent like Cliff Lee in the rotation. Regarding the bullpen, if Mariano continues to act like a vampire, the Yankees will have to shell out some dough to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal, depending on his preference. No matter what happens with Mo, I could see the Yankees being in the market for a top reliever, so as to allow both Joba and Hughes to start. If so, Street and Soriano would both be good fits. Finally, I have long advocated bringing in Manny, but unless he is asking for a 1 year deal for 10 million or less, I cannot see Cash biting.
Photo Credit: ESPN.com
