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Feb 032011

Yesterday, I projected the potential starting rotation by WAR so I’ll do the same thing with the bullpen today. However, it’s near impossible to tell just how many guys will be pitching in the bullpen and at what times. In fact, it’s possible that some of the guys I projected in the rotation will get significant innings in the bullpen rather than in the rotation. To avoid guess work, I’ll just be calculating the WAR of guys we KNOW will be in the bullpen and comparing their personal marks to those of last year. The guys we KNOW will be in the bullpen:

Mariano Rivera
Rafael Soriano
David Robertson
Joba Chamberlain
Pedro Feliciano
Boone Logan

I’m leaving out the long man because I have no idea who that’s going to be. I put the pitchers in that order because that’s how I think they’ll be used in terms of leverage, and that’s how the spreadsheet is formatted. To clarify, we’re assuming Mariano Rivera is going to be used in the highest leverage situations while Boone Logan will be used in the lowest leverage situations. Obviously, this is flexible and not exact, but we’ll roll with it for now. On to the projections!

Mariano Rivera: 2.99 FIP in 68 IP, 2.7 WAR
Rafael Soriano: 3.48 FIP in 66 IP, 1.3 WAR
David Robertson: 3.68 FIP in 67 IP, 0.8 WAR
Joba Chamberlain: 2.98 FIP in 72 IP, 1.4WAR*
Pedro Feliciano: 3.89 FIP in 65 IP, 0.5 WAR
Boone Logan: 4.24 FIP in 48 IP, 0.2 WAR

*Joba’s CAIRO projection included nine starts, which affected his originally projected IP (85) and FIP (3.94). So, I used his 2010 season as a guide and rounded up to 72 innings, while keeping his FIP tally the same. Joba showed in 2010 that he was pretty good at the FIP skill set and his career as a reliever (2.55 FIP) mirrors that.

So how do the 2011 projections compare the 2010 results? We see Joba staying the same at 1.4 WAR while we see Mo gaining an entire win from his 2010 season. D-Rob gains a tenth of a win; Logan loses two tenths of a win. Soriano drops three tenths of a win, and that’s probably due to the FIP correction CAIRO sees for Rafael. As for Feliciano, he’d also be dropping three tenths of a win but I may be underestimating his leverage.

In terms of confidence, I feel a good deal of it int he FIP projections (though Soriano’s may be a touch high) but not necessarily so in terms of the exact leverage numbers. Logan and Feliciano may end up in higher leverage situations than I anticipated due to different matchups and it’s possible that Joba and Robertson switch places in terms of who gets how many higher leverage innings. No matter what, though, I’m confident that the Yankee bullpen will be more than solid in 2011.

Jan 182011

Once upon a time, there was a pitching prospect in the Yankee’s minor league system. In six different seasons, he started 68 games out of the 102 that he pitched, all of them starts after his first pro season. In those 430.1 innings, he had a 3.03 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 7.95 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, and a 3.92 K/BB.

The Yankees got nothing but good results from this guy. He clearly had great numbers as a starter and had a lot of potential. This guy never made it as a starter, though. He started just ten games for the Bombers and the results weren’t pretty: A 5.94 ERA. A 1.90 K/BB. A 1.680 WHIP. An .852 OPS against. After those poor ten starts, he never got a chance to start for the Yankees again.

(If you didn’t get it after that paragraph, I’m talking about Mariano Rivera)

What if the Yankees had displayed a little more patience with Rivera than they did? What if they didn’t move him to the bullpen for 1996 and beyond? Given the way we look at pitchers today, I think most of us would’ve said that Rivera should’ve at least been given the chance to fail (more) as a starter. If he was coming up today, wouldn’t we at least want him to get a full season as a starter before casting him off to the bullpen? Wouldn’t we say he just needs time to develop a third pitch, like a curveball or change up?

Thankfully, for all parties involved, the move turned out for the best. Rivera has gone on to become the game’s best relief pitcher for an inconceivable number of years. He may not have gotten an extended shot at the starting rotation, but he certainly made the best of his opportunity in the bullpen. It’s funny how things turn out, isn’t it?

Jan 072011

Last night in the River Avenue Blues open thread, a commenter asked what the Yankees would plan to do without Kerry Wood as the definite set-up man. I wanted the Yankees to bring back Wood at the right price, but he ended up taking a sweetheart deal to go pitch for the Cubs. However, as I responded in the thread, the Yankees will be just fine in the bullpen, even without Wood.

I fully expect David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain to do the set up job just fine. They combined for over 132 innings last year and could likely both handle a moderate inning increase–think about 10-15 innings between the two of them. That could apply more to Robertson, who pitched 61.1 innings last year. Chamberlain’s total was pretty high at 71.2. In fact, that total was the 7th highest among all American League relievers.

Chamberlain’s ERA wasn’t pretty in 2010, but there are indicators that 2011 will be better. Chamberlain’s K/9 was a shade under 10 at 9.67 and his 2.76 BB/9 is more than fine. He also dropped her his HR/9 to 0.75. The 45.6 GB% is also encouraging, and I would expect that .342 BABIP to drop. His 66.6% strand rate was rather low, too. I think we can count on a better strand rate in 2011.

Robertson, as usual, still had the strikeouts working for him (10.42 per nine). The walks were still there for him at 4.84 BB/9, but he upped his GB% to just under 40% and also dropped his HR/9 to 0.73. There aren’t any apparent red flags for Robertson, and I’m confident in his ability to repeat 2010, or at least come close to it. If Chamberlain can repeat everything from 2010, while lowering his ERA, he and Robertson will make up a formidable set-up combination. They won’t have to bear the load alone. And, while both Joba and D-Rob can pitch well enough against lefties, they will be helped by lefty specialists Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano. The four of those pitchers can make up a solid bridge to Mowhere.

That doesn’t mean, though, that the Yankees shouldn’t at least think about adding another reliever. I’ve argued for Brian Fuentes, but he wants to close and may want a relatively long term deal. Jon Rauch is also a possibility , but there’s been no market on him, so we have no idea what it will take to get him. I think Rauch could come relatively cheaply and he would be a welcomed addition.

What roles we may not be sure of are the non-late inning roles. The long relief role seems absolutely wide open. It could be someone out of the organization right now; it could be Sergio Mitre; it could be Ivan Nova. IT COULD BE MARK PRIOR! (No, no it couldn’t. Sigh.) Like it usually is, I think this role–along with the non-Mo/Joba/Robertson/Feliciano/Logan roles–will be rather fluid, like it tends to be each and every year.

Billy Beane has said on many an occasion that his team building strategies do not work in the postseason. What he means by this is that although talent tends to rise to the top over a long season, all bets are off in a short postseason series. The better team will often be sent home due to a handful of surprisingly good performances on one side and equally weak ones on the other. This thought came to me last night while discussing a difficult night in Yankees history:

The 9th inning of Game 7 of the 2001 World Series displays just how random the postseason can be. The inning started off with clean line drive single up the middle by Mark Grace, a left-handed hitter. Rivera has held lefties to a .519 OPS in his career, and shut them down to the tune of a .435 OPS in 2001. Damian Miller then bunted, and Mo went for the force at second and threw wildly. Mo made one error in 2001, and it was the first of his career. He currently has 6 career regular season errors. On the next play, Scott Brosius, a plus defender for his career who was still a good glove, fielded a bunt and got the force at 3rd. However, he had a seemingly easy throw across the diamond to turn two, and for some reason refrained from making it.

Tony Womack was up next, another lefty who had a .652 OPS that year. Of course, he roped a double into right, scoring one run and moving the winning run to 3rd. Mo then unleashed just the 10th HBP of his career to put Craig Counsell at first. Joe Torre kept the infield in, and lefty batter Luiz Gonzalez blooped one just over the head of Derek Jeter to win the World Series.

Let’s recap: Mo, unhittable against lefty batters, allows 3 hits to them in one inning, including two line drives. The guy with the game’s biggest hit, Womack, was a bad hitter who had 30 RBI’s all season. Mo made the second error of his entire career and threw his 10th HBP, and Scott Brosius forgot how to turn a double play. Finally, Torre kept the infield in against the Diamondbacks best bat, and he looped one just far enough for it to evade the pulled-in Jeter. The amount of unexpected or entirely random things that happened in this one inning is fairly astonishing.

I have seen many Yankees fans write off the 2011 season before it has even started, noting that the team currently looks like a Wild Card team at best. While that may be true, and they would not be the favorite if a playoff series were held against Boston tomorrow, this viewpoint ignores the randomness inherent to a short series in baseball. Game 7 of the 2001 World Series should have taught us that once you get to the postseason, anything can happen. Write a potential playoff team off at your own risk.

From Gordon Edes:

The Red Sox offered reliever Mariano Rivera a two-year, $30 million deal and were prepared to non-tender closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to a baseball source with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

Rivera turned down the Red Sox to return to the Yankees, who offered the same money as Boston. Rivera’s pending agreement with the Yankees was first reported by the New York Daily News.

The Red Sox on Thursday night tendered a contract to Papelbon, who was paid $9.35 million last season and is arbitration-eligible, which will drive his salary into eight figures. Papelbon is a year away from free agency.

My initial reaction to the news that the Red Sox had offered Mariano a contract was to be skeptical of their motives, particularly when we thought that offer was for 3 years and 51 million dollars. It did not seem like Theo Epstein to commit that much money and that many years to a 41 year old pitcher, and I suspected that he was just trying to drive up the price on the Yankees. The two teams do this dance every offseason, feigning interest in players in order to coax more assets from the opposing club.

However, this news from Edes is fascinating, as it seems the Red Sox were ready to dump their own closer and hand Mo a perfectly reasonable contract that would not hamstring them in the long term. Thankfully, Mo rejected them and will be returning on the same terms that the Red Sox offered, while the Sox are stuck with a sure to be displeased Papelbon. I would not be surprised if they explored trading him before the season begins, although I am uncertain whether they will find any takers for a pitcher who had a poor season and is slated to earn eight figures in 2011. It was a bold move for Theo to make a play for Mariano, but I wonder whether he might come to regret it if Papelbon acts out during the season.

From Christian Red of the Daily News via MLBTR, the Yankees and Mariano Rivera have agreed to two year deal worth $30MM.

So, it appears that Mo didn’t get the raise he wanted, but he got his two years. This was definitely a foregone conclusion, but it’s nice to see it done. At the end of this contract, I assume Rivera will retire from pitching…then sign a contract and become a Hall of Fame position player.

@d_a_cameron:

Mariano Rivera – so great that $15 million a year for a 41-year-old reliever seems fair.

Nov 302010

Two interesting articles regarding the two most important Yankee relievers were published today. The first (from RLYW) is about Mariano Rivera, and bodes well for 2011:

It’s a good bet he will need to be used less and less frequency because a 40-41 year old body just doesn’t recover like one that’s 30. That’s a legitimate point in discussing Rivera’s value, because value is not just about rate of performance. You’re not very valuable if you aren’t pitching.

Just because he’s now turned 40, there’s very little reason in his statistical record to think that he’s about to fall off a cliff. He certainly could, and he’s got the same risk any pitcher does of hurting his arm and becoming worthless….

Rivera’s CAIRO projection is still top tier for all relief pitchers, and it does include both aging and some component regression to the mean for his FIP and xFIP. For CAIRO, his projection for runs allowed is based on 35% RA, 30% ERA, 15% FIP, 10% xFIP, and 15% component ERA. So 40% of his projection includes data that is most likely to regress, and he STILL projects about as well as anyone.

He will eventually reach the point where he’s not an asset. But all the evidence we have says that’s not going to happen in 2011.

I think observation confirms the statistics in this case, as Mo looked as effective this season as he has been since he entered the league. He continues to exhibit excellent command and control, and rarely allows hard contact. The post makes some interesting comparisons and discusses Mariano’s ability to induce weak contact, and I recommend that you go to RLYW and read the full post.

The second article comes from Beyond the Boxscore, and confirms a troubling observation that some have made regarding Joba Chamberlain. Over the last two seasons, many have noticed that Joba’s slider seems to be flatter, tumbling rather than diving out of the strike zone. Considering that he has largely ditched his curveball and changeup, diminished effectiveness from the slider is a major problem for Chamberlain. Lucas Apostoleris used Pitch f/x to examine whether this observation is accurate, and his results are a bit unsettling:

The slider has both lost break and gained velocity, and the change has been particularly noticeable since September 2009. There was a higher percentage of hanging sliders in 2009 and 2010 than there was in 2008. The difference may appear slight, but as the saying goes, baseball is a game of inches. All in all, while the slider may not be filthy as it was in the old days, it’s still pretty great.

Joba’s slider is resulting in fewer swinging strikes, likely because it has gotten worse in many different ways. The pitch is being located higher in the zone, it has less vertical “drop” to it, and it has increased in speed (meaning there is less of a gap between the slider and fastball). While it remains a very good pitch, Joba likely needs it to be dominant now that he only has 2 pitches and the fastball has diminished in velocity. If he is truly to be the heir to Mariano, he needs to figure out how to harness his slider.

Nov 302010

To me, the most interesting new name on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot (which has no shortage of debatable, interesting candidates) is John Franco. His career numbers:

Year Age Tm Lg W L ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP SO/BB
21 Seasons 90 87 2.89 1119 774 424 1245.2 1166 466 400 81 495 975 138 1.333 1.97
162 Game Avg. 5 5 2.89 68 47 26 76 71 28 24 5 30 59 138 1.333 1.97
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2010.

As far as closers go, Franco was one of the best of his time. He pitched a ton of innings deep into his 40s, posted a 138 ERA+, and is 4th all time in saves. He will no double garner a few Hall of Fame votes this year based on the saves alone. But does he really deserve to be there?

It has been my long-held belief that relief pitchers for the most part should not be in the Hall of Fame. Relief pitchers have the playing time, relative to starters, of a backup first baseman. If you ask yourself, “How good would my backup first baseball have to hit for me to recommend him for the Hall?”, the answer would probably be, “Pretty damn Bonds-like.”

Now, relief pitchers, unlike bench hitters, generally pitch lower ERAs than their starting peers. They are often used in higher leverage situations where the fate of the game hangs on every pitch. But that doesn’t mean that their contributions are all that much more worthwhile than starters. If Sabathia holds the game to 1-0 through 8 innings, Mariano Rivera may feel pressure, but he’s only doing for one inning what Sabathia did for 8. And also unlike bench players, relievers don’t simple graduate into the rotation after they’ve proven that they can play well.

But imagine if you had that Barry Bonds bench player? You’re in the National League, and this guy is just physically incapable of playing the field for more than 1-2 innings a game. But damn, he can hit lefties late in the game really well. He hits an OPS+ of 180+ over his career, 250+ during his best years, but never exceeds 100-150 at bats. Is he a Hall of Famer?

By my count, current HOF relievers include Goose Gossage, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Willhelm. John Franco is about as good or better than Gossage, Eckersley and Sutter, and pitched in a significantly different-enough era to fail to compare to Fingers and Wilhelm, who pitched much more. And at the same time, was arguably better than Trevor Hoffman. Hoffman’s statistics to date:

Year ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ WHIP SO/BB
18 Seasons 2.87 1035 *856* *601* 1089.1 846 378 347 100 307 1133 4388 141 1.058 3.69
162 Game Avg. 2.87 68 56 39 72 56 25 23 7 20 74 288 141 1.058 3.69
ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA+ WHIP SO/BB
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2010.

Franco has pitched more to a basically equal ERA+ compared with Hoffman. Hoffman has the saves statistic, but I don’t think that in this day and age we need to debate its merit.

Besides Fingers and Wilhelm – old-school relief pitchers who played a lot more than their modern peers and were much better when they pitched than Gossasge and Eckersley – I strong believe that there is only one relief pitcher in all of baseball who deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame – Mariano Rivera. His statistics:

Year Age Tm Lg ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP SO/BB
16 Seasons 2.23 978 829 559 1150.0 887 309 285 62 267 34 1051 *205* 1.003 3.94
162 Game Avg. 2.23 67 57 38 79 61 21 20 4 18 2 72 205 1.003 3.94
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2010.

Those are some Bonds-like numbers. While Hoffman, Franco, et al pitched like Gary Sheffield hit – at a solid,  arguably HOF-caliber level for a starter – Rivera has blown his competition out of the water. He’s the backup first baseman who is so good that he forces his way into the Hall of Fame. But the other guys? Overrated.

Yesterday, the Yankees declined to offer arbitration to all of their free agents (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Lance Berkman, and Kerry Wood) except for Javier Vazquez.

We can quite easily say that offering to Vazquez was the riskiest thing the Yankees could have done. He had, by far, the worst year of the five and made a good chunk of change. Had he accepted, the Yankees probably would’ve been on the hook for a good deal of money and a (probably) unproductive player. But, Vazquez and the Yankees had an agreement, and Vazquez turned down arbitration. So, he’ll give the Yankees a sandwich pick when he signs elsewhere. This may be the best thing Javy’s done for the Yankees in 2010 (yes that’s hyperbole).

Not offering to Wood and Berkman makes a bit of sense. Wood made a lot of money and the risk of acceptance was far too big for the reward. Seeing as how Berkman wanted his option to be declined, offering him arbitration would seem less risky, but the Yankees played it safe. It’s better to be weary of the dollar, I guess.

I can’t say, though, that I expected no offers of arbitration to Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. At the end of the day, I think they’ll both end up with multi-year contracts with the Yankees so arbitration may have been superfluous. Still, I think they should’ve offered it to both players.

On the off chance that Jeter and Rivera had accepted arbitration, this would ultimately help the Yankees. While it would likely mean a massive pay day for each player, the commitment on the Yankees’ end would’ve been just one year. With aging relievers and aging shortstops, the shorter the deal, the better.

Even a decline of arbitration from either (or both) player(s) could’ve helped the Yankees. Both Rivera and Jeter likely have very little leverage on the open market. Both are pricing themselves very highly, probably too highly for any team but the Yankees. If JeVera declined arbitration, draft pick compensation would be attached. This, IMO, makes the players even more unattractive to non-Yankee teams. It may not hurt Rivera as much since he’s still performing at an elite level, but it would definitely hurt Jeter. Jeter is an aging player at a premium position–one he doesn’t field all that well–who is entering his decline phase. For the money Jeter wants and the loss of a draft pick, I don’t think any teams are willing to go that high.

Michael Kay has argued a Jeter-related point that is contrary to mine. He thinks the Yankees shouldn’t have offered Jeter arbitration because if he accepted, he’d be making a ton of money. He then posits that if Jeter has a good bounce back year, he’ll demand even more money after the 2011 season. Here’s how I see it.

Like I’ve said, I’m willing to give Jeter the money and not the years. I’d rather overpay him grossly for one year than for multiple years. My other reason is a bit cold hearted. Say the Yankees DID offer Jeter arbitration and he DID accept. Let’s just throw a number out there and say his salary for 2011 would be $23MM (I think Kay suggested this). Let’s also assume that he bounces back and hits to his career averages. Obviously, this would put the leverage on Jeter’s side. If all that were to happen, I think the Yankees could just let Jeter walk.

Let’s think about it. They will (again) have paid Jeter handsomely. He will have gotten his 3,000th hit. The Yankees could easily say that Jeter’s time as a Yankee is up.

I felt a bit dirty typing that, but it could’ve happened. Anyway, it doesn’t matter all that much since the Yankees didn’t actually offer Jeter arbitration. I’m surprised they didn’t offer it to him or Rivera and I’m very surprised that they did offer it to Vazquez (of course, before I knew of their arrangement).

J-Doug of the excellent Rational Pastime blog is now writing for Beyond the Boxscore, and he has an excellent post up on relievers who get a wide strike zone. Mariano Rivera benefits from one of the largest zones, as this graphic shows:

Here is the typical strikezone:

I recommend reading the full post, as it includes a number of interesting tidbits on Rivera and discusses various other pitchers who benefited from a large strike zone. Regarding Rivera, he had the third largest advantage from a large strikezone among pitchers who threw at least 500 pitches since 2009. I think most Yankees fans have always recognized that Mo benefits from an expanded zone, likely because he is always near the plate with a cutter that may deceive umpires much as it fools hitters. A pitch with late break is among the most difficult for an umpire to call, and being that it is the only pitch Mariano throws, he would benefit from this bias constantly. J-Doug has some other theories, and again, I highly recommend heading to the site and checking it out.

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