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The official start of the Hot Stove season isn’t until after the World Series, but friends, it is never too early to start thinking about it. Steve hit on the top ten things the Yankees must do in the offseason earlier, so I won’t rehash something like that. Instead, I’m going to offer up a few brief questions, give a few brief answers, and leave them for you all to talk amongst yourselves.

1. Brandon Laird is coming off of a career year and has a 1.002 OPS in the Arizona Fall League thus far. The way I see it, there isn’t much room for Laird on the big club in the near future. His trade value is never going to be higher than it is now, unless he hits well at AAA Scranton to start the 2011 season. I don’t know if that’s worth risking. The Yankees should look to shop Laird now, likely as part of a package, because I think he’ll add more value to the team going forward as a trade piece than he will with his own play.

2. What’s going to happen with the OF bench situation in 2011? I’m assuming the Yankees will employ the same outfield they did for most of 2010–Gardner, Granderson, Swisher from LF-RF. It’s the extra outfielders who may look different. Austin Kearns will most certainly be gone. Marcus Thames may be back, but I honestly hope not. It’s nothing personal, Marcus…only business. He did great job in 2010 but the chances of 2010 being repeated are really, really, REALLY small. If the Yankees are smart–and they usually are–they’ll let Thames walk. The only problem is that there aren’t many good free agent options and the in house options–Colin Curtis and possibly Brandon Laird–are uninspiring. New York may have a lot of 40 man spots open, though, so they could snatch someone up from the Rule V draft like they did last year with Chad Huffman (even though that didn’t go well).

3. Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood, and Javier Vazquez are all type B free agents so there is absolutely no point in offering any of them arbitration. Granted, the chances of that wouldn’t be high even if all three were type A free agents. Lance Berkman will most certainly be gone, as will Javier Vazquez. Kerry Wood may be back, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

I’m very torn on Kerry Wood. He pitched well for the Yankees, obviously, but he’s always at risk for injury and chances are someone is going to offer him closer money. If I were going to offer Wood a contract, though, it would probably be pretty modest. His $11MM option was just denied and at most, I think I’d offer Wood a one year deal worth $5-6 million. Not long ago, I was okay with splitting the option over two years, but a two year deal for Kerry Wood isn’t a great idea. Would it be nice to have Wood as the set up guy in 2011? Yeah, sure. But is it necessary? No, I don’t think so.

Oct 122010

Yesterday, RAB tweeted that Johnny Damon said he was interested in returning to the Yankees in 2011 and didn’t like the sentiment. Friend of the blog Jamal Granger posited that Damon could be an okay DH/extra OF option for $5-6MM. Moshe agreed with Jamal. Another friend of the blog, Mike Axisa, then asked what role the Damon advocates could see him in. Finally, yours truly chimed in:

@mikeaxisa Not advocating for Damon, but he could platoon DH when Montero isn’t on the team. He DHs vs. RHP, Jorge vs. LHP?

Mike’s response was a good one: the Yankees will probably re-sign Thames, rendering my version of Damon useless.

So, now that we’ve finished with the background narrative, let’s jump into the possibility of Johnny Damon returning to the Bronx.

If Damon does indeed return, there’s no way I see him getting a starting job. Brett Garner put up over 5 fWAR in LF this year, Curtis Granderson is a great defender and good hitter, and Nick Swisher is a three to four win player as well. Johnny Damon just doesn’t fit into the Yankee outfield.

The DH spot is one where I could see him fitting, but even then it’s not guaranteed or permanent. As Mike said, the Yankees could bring back Thames to hit lefties and “play” outfield every so often. I disagree with him there, though. I think the Yankees are smart enough to realize that they won’t get anything like this from Thames again and will just thank him for his service this year and let him walk. That could open up a spot for Damon to come back, but only under a very small set of conditions. First, he’d play most of the time, but not all the time. If he was on the team, and I was managing, I’d have him DH against RHP and sit against LHP while Jorge Posada did the DHing. This is, of course, assuming that Jesus Montero does not break camp with the Yankees.

That’s definitely a possibility, but I think the ultimate plan for Montero next year is to have him split time at C/DH with Jorge Posada so he can get a good balance of rest and experience while still keeping his (possibly/probably/hopefully) impact bat in the lineup. Posada’s a switch hitter and has no platoon split, so it’s not like Johnny would be necessary for a platoon caddy when Posada’s not catching. I’m still assuming, though, Montero’s presence on the roster. Let’s explore what could happen if Damon is there during the beginning of the year and Montero isn’t. Damon would likely be used in the way I said: DH vs. RHP, sitting vs. LHP while Jorge gets half a day off. What happens when Montero gets the call, though?

Damon would have to take a significantly reduced role, basically that of the fourth outfielder. Would he want to do that? Would he justify a $5-6MM contract as Jamal suggested? And, lastly, the point of the article, would I do it?

I’m not sure Johnny would be down for it, considering a dip in pay and a reduced role, but I’d do it, but not at as high a price as Jamal proposed. I would only consider it if Damon was willing to take a true bench salary: $1-3MM at most. What do you guys think?

When the Yankees traded for Lance Berkman, many wondered whether they would give him a chance to hit against left-handed pitching, considering his deterioration in that area over the last few seasons. With a lefty-mashing player in Marcus Thames at his disposal, Joe Girardi has answered that question with an emphatic “no.” It seems pretty clear at this point that Berkman is unlikely to see any important at-bats against lefties in the postseason, as he will platoon with Thames and be pinch hit for if a lefty reliever enters the game. In fact, Joe has shown that if a lefty is on the hill, he would prefer to substitute Thames for Berkman even if it means that the opposing manager will change pitchers and bring in a righty to battle Thames.

Being that Lance had always been adequate against left-handers, some have been searching for a way to explain his inability to hit them over the last few seasons. At the request of friend-of-the-blog Jamal Granger (@JamalGr), I reached out to Steve Carter (@SteveCarterPP), senior scout at Project Prospect, to ask if he could see anything different in Berkman’s swing from the right side. The following is his scouting report:

From the right side, he’s always been pretty much a dead pull hitter. Really opens up with his front side. That I knew. What I didn’t know was how bad it had become. Looked it up on TexasLeaguers.com’s spray charts, and since the beginning of 2009, he has a total of 5 hits to the right of dead center. Five. (One infield hit, but with his legs, ain’t nothin but a fluke.)

He’s never been a great hitter from the right side, but now that he’s older and his bat is slowing, his natural tendency to open up with his front side is hurting him big time. He’s basically early on everything that isn’t a fastball, but can’t generate enough bat speed to catch up to the fastball. Caught in between on everything. And since pitchers are seeing the slow bat, they’re pounding him in with hard stuff and then attacking away with soft stuff. And him being early isn’t really a timing issue. It’s a swing issue that leads to a timing issue. He’s not giving himself a chance to be on time because his own actions aren’t properly executed/timed up.

Swing wise- His first move from the right side has pretty much always been to open up with his front hip/oblique. Good when the pitch is middle-in, not so much when it’s away. He could get away with that when he was younger, not so much anymore. He also never really has been able to work his hands right from the right side. He has a very pronounced ‘hit down on the ball’ move with his hands, which doesn’t really allow him to build up bat speed behind him before committing to the pitch. All of his bat speed is late and out in front, and pretty much all his energy is directed out to left field- by that I mean the energy he builds up by loading doesn’t get built up in time, and what little he has built up doesn’t get expelled into the ball. Last thing about his swing from the RH side, it’s always been rather ‘armish’. A lot (more than there should be) of arm involvement, not enough hips/core/hands. Arms mean slow actions and slop in the swing, neither of which are good. Also, in his case, he extends his arms out away from his body too soon, further slowing him down and putting him in weaker positions to both create bat speed and drive the ball with authority.

As it stands, I’d avoid using him as a RHH if at all possible. Unless you face Cole Hamels, then I’d force him to sit the whole game on Cole’s change up.

Thank you to Steve for contributing, and check out Project Prospect for more of his work.

One thing I wanted to add to bolster this analysis is that Berkman is hitting 9% more line drives when hitting left-handed (18.8 to 9.5%). As Steve noted, his righty swing is not allowing him drive the ball, a major issue that is likely at the core of his poor performance against left-handers. I am uncertain whether this is something that he can fix, as it sounds like age and bat speed are major factors in his decline. Regardless, he is unlikely to get a chance to alter his mechanics and then test the changes during his tenure with the Yankees. When lefties take the hill against the Bombers in September and October, it will be Marcus Thames manning the DH spot.

Via Bryan Hoch’s Twitter, (again H/T RAB, Nick Johnson has suffered a setback in his wrist surgery rehab. This likely shoots any hope that OBP Jesus will return this season and leaves the Yankees looking for a full time DH option. They could continue to use Jorge Posada as a DH with Francisco Cervelli catching, but I’m not a big fan of this (at least not until FC hits another hot streak).

There are some DH options out there, but frankly, none of them are too attractive.

The trade candidates:

–Lance Berkman: His raw numbers are down (.351 wOBA, .405 career, .386 in ’09), but his peripheral stats are still decent: 15.2% walk rate, .192 IsoP. I’m not a huge fan of this because of Berkman’s age but if he could replicate a 15.2% walk rate and a .192 IsoP, he’d be a valuable addition to the Yankees. The price, though, is likely to be high. We haven’t heard much on the Berkman Trade Front lately and he is the hitting face of the Houston franchise, so the rebuilding Astros would likely ask a hefty price for Fat Elvis. Pass.

–Adam Dunn: I’m a huge Adam Dunn fan. I think he’s still underrated and as a lefthanded DH-only in Yankee Stadium III, Dunn could do some serious damage. However, there have recently been reports that Dunn and the Washington Nationals have been talking a contract extension. Because of that, I see his cost as too high as well. As sad as it makes me, pass as well.

–Adam LaRoche: LaRoche is on the lowly Diamondbacks and is having a pretty good year. He’s got a .345 wOBA and a .209 IsoP. His OBP seems low at .331, but his walk rate is about ten percent. Arizona is going on where and LaRoche isn’t getting any younger. He’s not a missing piece, nor is he one the Diamondbacks should plan on building around. This means his cost will probably be the lowest of the trade options. The only roadblock I can see is a $9.5MM mutual option that kicks in if he’s traded (if not, it’s a $7.5MM mutual option). It’s more a pothole than a sinkhole, as the Yankees would likely decline their part of the option unless LaRoche were to absolutely rake in New York.

Free agent candidates:

–Carlos Delgado and Jermaine Dye are the only free agent options I see as viable (barring a Barry Bonds comeback) and they’re not too attractive. Delgado’s got obvious power, but he’s coming off of hip surgery. Dye is the better option of the two, mostly because he’s not coming off of an injury. My first post here, though, was about avoiding Dye and I think the Yankees should do the same here.

Internal options:

–Juan Miranda and Marcus Thames as a DH platoon. I like this option most for a few reasons:

Miranda hasn’t looked awful in his time in NY.
Miranda has been raking since coming off the DL.
Thames should only play against lefties.
It keeps Thames off the field.
It costs nothing. This is the most important part and makes it the most likely.

So, readers, what do you think is the best option?

Jul 082010

I’ve written about trade stuff a lot lately, including the last two days, and as there are no concrete rumors (oxy moron?) in MLB right now and I’m writing these posts before the 10 PM games to get myself some extra sleep, so I thought I’d focus on something else on field: how far the Yankees hit their home runs.

I’ve touched on this before, but that was way back in the beginning of the year before any team had a lot of homers. Going into last night’s game against Oakland, the Yankees had 93 homers, good for third in the American League. So, let’s look at all 93 of those homers and see who really gets the best of the ball when he takes it over the fences for some FIP destruction!

Curtis Granderson still owns the longest home run, with 455 feet of true distance. That came in his first PA as a Yankee, off of Josh Beckett in the second inning of Opening Night. Alex Rodriguez checks in at the number two and three spots with two blasts of 452 feet; Robinson Cano is fourth with a 451 foot bomb off of Jamie Moyer, and Jorge Posada’s 443 foot shot off of Randy Choate rounds out the top five.

The shortest Yankee homer this year has come off the bat of Mark Teixeira, who hit a 321 footer off of Roy Halladay.

Let’s get to the averages:

Cano: 396.4′
Gardner: 381.2′
Granderson: 402.3′
Jeter: 393.0′
Johnson: 416′ (only two homers)
Miranda: 390′ (only two homers)
Posada: 398.7′
Rodriguez: 402.4′
Swisher: 401.9′
Teixeira: 392.6′
Thames: 388.5′ (only two homers)
Winn: 419′ (only one homer)

So, among guys with at least three homers, Alex Rodriguez just edges out Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher in the longest average home run department. If this was shocking to you, well, no, I’m not going to insult any of you; you all knew how this would end! Not surprisingly, Brett Gardner’s five homers average the shortest. The way his swing works, it’s rare for him to get a homer in the first place, let alone hit it far. Gardner has, however, had two no doubt homers.

Despite that lead in longest average homer, Rodriguez doesn’t lead the team in no doubt home runs. That honor goes to Nick Swisher, who has five.

Going forward, I expect few changes to this leaderboard. If Tex hits a groove, though, he could take second place from Curtis Granderson.

While longer homers don’t put anymore runs on the board (unless you’re playing Wiffle Ball at my house–if you can manage to hit the road that’s about 15 feet back from the HR “wall” you automatically get a grand slam), they sure are fun to watch. Hopefully, the Yankees can keep cranking out majestic shots for us to marvel at.

May 212010

The return of Nick Swisher? Good.

The ankle injury to Marcus Thames? Not good.

The foot injury to Jorge Posada that will sideline him for 3-4 weeks? Really not good.

With Posada (and Johnson and Granderson) sidelined, the Yankee lineup remains much less circular than it did at the start of the year. Jorge’s return would have helped greatly. Obviously, it’s not going to happen so the Yankees must construct a lineup without their regular catcher for a little while.

Marcus Thames’ absence will also have a negative effect. This means there will either be a rotating DH (read: Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo will be in the lineup while a regular DHs) or the Yankees will have to let Juan Miranda hit against left handed pitching. This may not seem desirable, but after two years–2007 and 2008–of awful hitting against lefties in the minors (OPS’s of .664 and .551), Miranda’s apparently learned how to hit southpaws (.874 in ’09, .952 in ’10). Major League lefties are definitely a different beast all together, but the improvement is much welcomed. For the time that Thames is out, there really isn’t another option, unless the Yankees want to put a free out in the lineup in the person of Ramiro Pena. When Thames returns, a Miranda/Thames DH platoon should work out nicely.

A key to the Jorge-less lineup is going to be Nick Swisher. That he is back in the outfield is a big plus, especially now that Thames is hurt. If Swisher couldn’t play, the Yankees’ outfield would have absolutely no power threat. The return of Swisher also means a better, more powerful bat behind Robinson Cano. While he’s hit well, I don’t think we liked seeing Francisco Cervelli as the six hitter the last few nights. And while it may not be as intimidating as it was on Opening Day, a Swisher inclusive lineup is much deeper than the one the Yankees trotted out this week. The moral of this paragraph? It’s a good thing Nick Swisher is coming back right now.

If I had to guess, I’d say the lineup will look like this each night:

1. Jeter SS
2. Gardner CF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Miranda DH
8. Cervelli C
9. Winn LF

The 7-8-9 isn’t great, but the 1-6 is still very solid. If the pitching staff can rebound from an awful stretch against Boston and Tampa, the Yankees should be fine while waiting out Granderson, Posada, and Johnson.

May 192010

Let’s completely ignore sample size issues for a moment, shall we? In this outfield this season (prior to last night’s game, even), Marcus Thames has an UZR/150 of -17.4. Such a rating is inline with Thames’ previous fielding trends while with the Tigers. Basically, though this was made especially clear during last night’s game, he is the worst outfield defender on the Yankees’ roster. However, with Nick Swisher out, unless fans want to see the offensively anemic Greg Golson receive a ton of extra at-bats, Joe Girardi is forced to play him in the outfield (he has wisely shifted Thames over to right field, though, where there is less ground to cover, overall).

At the beginning of the year, Girardi actually played Thames in left, and seemingly had to learn just how bad Thames was with a glove through trial and error. I think it is pretty clear now that he is downright miserable, fielding-wise (even I did not think he would be this bad). When Swisher returns, the Yankees will have to employ Thames (and Miranda) at DH, because, regardless of his hitting, Thames is too much of a defensive liability to play in the outfield.

May 182010

Now that we know Nick Johnson will be out until July due to undergoing wrist surgery, we need to assess the DH situation for the Yankees and determine how they should approach it.

The first choice, the “logical” one so to speak, is for the team to stomach Randy Winn in left (he’s actually hitting well in May (.822 OPS going into last night’s game in a super small sample size) while using a DH platoon of Marcus Thames vs. left handed pitching and Juan Miranda vs. right handed pitching. For some reason, though, Juan Miranda has gotten few PAs since being recalled last week. If he’s not going to be DHing against right handed pitchers, why is he even with the team? Either start using him, or send him back down to Scranton.

The second choice is one that I wasn’t wild about at first, but eventually I came around to it. At this point, it makes sense for the Yankees to call up a third catcher–Chad Moeller in this case–to be the back up catcher and let Francisco Cervelli catch full time while Jorge Posada DHs. Frankie is hitting really well right now and, defensively, he’s the best option behind the plate the Yankees have. At this point in the season, Posada is hitting well enough to justify DHing, so they won’t take much of a hit. It also saves him from catching until Johnson returns. The downside, of course, is that Cervelli isn’t going to hit this well all season. When he cools down, this lineup may not look as strong. If and when this happens, though, option one can be implemented while Posada moves back behind the plate (assuming he’s healthy enough to do so).

Option three is a trade or the free agent market. I’d guess the Yankees wouldn’t pursue this because there are “free” ways to fill in at DH. If they do turn to the markets, though, there’s a few options. Jermaine Dye is one and is probably a better option because he doesn’t require a forfeiture of prospects. Next, there are trade candidates Lance Berkman and Derek Lee. Meh. I like these guys a lot; they’re very good hitters. But, chances are the Yankees won’t want to give up prospects for a partial season of a DH. Taking that into consideration, other teams will probably put up better packages.

Knowing the Yankees, and having a general sense of roster construction, I’d say the Yankees are likely to go to option one because they probably won’t want to keep three catchers on the 25 man roster and don’t want to give up anything of value for not-a-whole-season of a DH. Hopefully, though, the Yankees go with option two. It optimizes catcher defense, doesn’t leave a hole in the offense, and saves Jorge’s aging legs for at least a time.

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

-Marcus Thames delivers the game winner off everyone’s favorite Red Sox, Johnathan Papelbon. Had Swisher not been out with a bicep injury and Posada not hurt his foot the night before, Marcus most likely would have never been in the game with Righty Dice-K as the starter. Then the Lefthander platoon specialist collects an RBI double and sac fly off Matsuzaka, and then gets the game winning HR facing another tough Righty in Paps. That’s just Baseball, Susan.

-Aaron Boone was in the booth for ESPN, along with Nomar Garciaparra. That would be a bit more spooky if the Yanks-Sox rivalry wasn’t loaded with these see-saw games where it’s never over until the final out is recorded. But if that still gives you goosebumps, go for it.

-In what may be the most under reported story from last night’s game Javier Vazquez collected the win in his abbreviated outing facing only one batter in Kevin Youkilis. Yankee fans have Javier’s last relief appearance emblazoned in their brains forever, but this time he fared much better. It came on the 1-year anniversary of his old nemesis Johnny Damon’s walkoff win for the Yanks last year over the Twins, which was the 3rd in a walk off in a row in that May Twins series that propelled the Yanks for the rest of the season, and onto a World Series championship.

-With our bullpen at full force, in all likelihood last night’s game would have played out much differently. But Joba was unavailable, Mitre had just pitched the day before, and Aceves is on the DL. There was a lot of second guessing Girardi’s bullpen moves from yesterday, but most of it was unwarranted. Joe Girardi explained why things played out as they did:

“I tried not to use Javy today, because I want to pitch him Friday.” Girardi said. “I want to make this clear; he was not skipped because of (the Red Sox). Our bullpen is a mess. I needed a long guy today. We could not activate Chan Ho Park if we didn’t have a long man.

If Thames strikes out last night, the Vazquez move is brilliant and nobody’s second guessing Joe. The Red Sox had already used their long man in Wakefield, so the Yanks would have had a decided upper hand going into extra innings, even on a night when their bullpen was depleted. Also, for the folks decrying Logan’s appearance let’s review Bullpen Management 101: You don’t use your best guys first. You get what you can out of your lesser guys and have your better options backing them up. That’s why your closer is your best arm, setup man 2nd best and the long man is the least desirable. The Logan move was solid. It was the 6th inning, you weren’t facing the heart of the order (5-8) and you want to make V-Mart bat Righty to pull to the big part of the ballpark. It just didn’t work out. With Park giving up 2 consecutive HRs, there wasn’t much of a chance to minimize the damage there. I had zero issues with Joe’s moves last night, it was by the book given what he had to work with.

-Last and never least, Mr “unclutch” himself, Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. Remember that tag? Seems like a long time ago, and it is. In an inning where Paps made Tex and Cano look bad on splitters, he serves up a first pitch fastballs to Alex and Thames, who deposited them in the bullpen and the left field stands, respectively. With the injury situation piling up and some players due to fall back down to Earth, A-Rod finding his power stroke couldn’t have come at a better time. The Yankee manager agrees:

“He’s a weapon,” Joe Girardi said. “Everyone is in scoring position whenever he walks to the plate.”

Amen, Joe.

I have long advocated that the Yankees give Elijah Dukes a shot on their bench. With Curtis Granderson hurt, Randy Winn struggling, and Marcus Thames occupying the DH slot, the time is right for the addition of another bat. Yes, I know the offense is just fine and that the Yankees are a playoff team without Dukes. But the difference between Dukes and Winn could make a difference in October, and unlike other external bench options, it will not cost the Yankees any players to obtain Dukes.

I outlined the pros and cons during the offseason:

PROS

1) He has plenty of talent: He had a poor 2009 that was marred by injury and a strange loss of power, but his 2008 was fantastic and suggested that he was a star in the making. I am not really sure why he fell of a cliff in 2009, but it is clear that he has the skills and athleticism to be an above average player with the bat and adequate with the glove.

2) He projects to be better than the Yankees current options at 4th and 5th outfielder. His projected wOBA based on an average of four projection systems is .346, significantly better than that of Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

3) This is a good fit for Dukes: While he may not start right away, New York is likely his best shot to play in a winning environment for the first time while also affording him a reasonable chance of grabbing a starting spot. Being that Dukes has played for two awful franchises thus far, it might be a strong motivator for him to play with regularity for a winner.

4) He’s cheap, you can cut ties immediately if there is a problem, and he gives them options next offseason: Dukes will likely require less than a million dollars to sign, and can be stashed in the minors if he does not make the team immediately. Furthermore, there is no real downside here. If he acts up or plays poorly, he can simply be cut or traded without any repercussions.

CONS

1) His performance dropped in 2009, and he cannot stay healthy: His performance in 2009 was fairly shoddy, and he gained a reputation amongst National fans for having poor baseball instincts in the field and on the basepaths. Furthermore, Dukes has had trouble staying on the field, with 4 stints on the DL over the last 2 seasons. Then again, if he gets hurt, the Yankees would simply be right back where they are right now.

2) There are some very serious behavioral issues. I do not want to sweep these under the rug, because Elijah has had some serious issues that include multiple arrests and prompted the Nationals to hire someone to follow him around and keep him out of trouble. Furthermore, dropping that a player with that sort of history into the shark tank that is the NY media frenzy may not be the brightest of ideas.

Ultimately, I think it is worth a shot. As I noted above, if Dukes does not work out, the club is right back where they started and can go look for other options. If he succeeds, the Yankees will have obtained a young power bat for practically nothing. Why not give him a shot?

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