Via Bryan Hoch’s Twitter, (again H/T RAB, Nick Johnson has suffered a setback in his wrist surgery rehab. This likely shoots any hope that OBP Jesus will return this season and leaves the Yankees looking for a full time DH option. They could continue to use Jorge Posada as a DH with Francisco Cervelli catching, but I’m not a big fan of this (at least not until FC hits another hot streak).

There are some DH options out there, but frankly, none of them are too attractive.

The trade candidates:

–Lance Berkman: His raw numbers are down (.351 wOBA, .405 career, .386 in ‘09), but his peripheral stats are still decent: 15.2% walk rate, .192 IsoP. I’m not a huge fan of this because of Berkman’s age but if he could replicate a 15.2% walk rate and a .192 IsoP, he’d be a valuable addition to the Yankees. The price, though, is likely to be high. We haven’t heard much on the Berkman Trade Front lately and he is the hitting face of the Houston franchise, so the rebuilding Astros would likely ask a hefty price for Fat Elvis. Pass.

–Adam Dunn: I’m a huge Adam Dunn fan. I think he’s still underrated and as a lefthanded DH-only in Yankee Stadium III, Dunn could do some serious damage. However, there have recently been reports that Dunn and the Washington Nationals have been talking a contract extension. Because of that, I see his cost as too high as well. As sad as it makes me, pass as well.

–Adam LaRoche: LaRoche is on the lowly Diamondbacks and is having a pretty good year. He’s got a .345 wOBA and a .209 IsoP. His OBP seems low at .331, but his walk rate is about ten percent. Arizona is going on where and LaRoche isn’t getting any younger. He’s not a missing piece, nor is he one the Diamondbacks should plan on building around. This means his cost will probably be the lowest of the trade options. The only roadblock I can see is a $9.5MM mutual option that kicks in if he’s traded (if not, it’s a $7.5MM mutual option). It’s more a pothole than a sinkhole, as the Yankees would likely decline their part of the option unless LaRoche were to absolutely rake in New York.

Free agent candidates:

–Carlos Delgado and Jermaine Dye are the only free agent options I see as viable (barring a Barry Bonds comeback) and they’re not too attractive. Delgado’s got obvious power, but he’s coming off of hip surgery. Dye is the better option of the two, mostly because he’s not coming off of an injury. My first post here, though, was about avoiding Dye and I think the Yankees should do the same here.

Internal options:

–Juan Miranda and Marcus Thames as a DH platoon. I like this option most for a few reasons:

Miranda hasn’t looked awful in his time in NY.
Miranda has been raking since coming off the DL.
Thames should only play against lefties.
It keeps Thames off the field.
It costs nothing. This is the most important part and makes it the most likely.

So, readers, what do you think is the best option?

I’ve written about trade stuff a lot lately, including the last two days, and as there are no concrete rumors (oxy moron?) in MLB right now and I’m writing these posts before the 10 PM games to get myself some extra sleep, so I thought I’d focus on something else on field: how far the Yankees hit their home runs.

I’ve touched on this before, but that was way back in the beginning of the year before any team had a lot of homers. Going into last night’s game against Oakland, the Yankees had 93 homers, good for third in the American League. So, let’s look at all 93 of those homers and see who really gets the best of the ball when he takes it over the fences for some FIP destruction!

Curtis Granderson still owns the longest home run, with 455 feet of true distance. That came in his first PA as a Yankee, off of Josh Beckett in the second inning of Opening Night. Alex Rodriguez checks in at the number two and three spots with two blasts of 452 feet; Robinson Cano is fourth with a 451 foot bomb off of Jamie Moyer, and Jorge Posada’s 443 foot shot off of Randy Choate rounds out the top five.

The shortest Yankee homer this year has come off the bat of Mark Teixeira, who hit a 321 footer off of Roy Halladay.

Let’s get to the averages:

Cano: 396.4′
Gardner: 381.2′
Granderson: 402.3′
Jeter: 393.0′
Johnson: 416′ (only two homers)
Miranda: 390′ (only two homers)
Posada: 398.7′
Rodriguez: 402.4′
Swisher: 401.9′
Teixeira: 392.6′
Thames: 388.5′ (only two homers)
Winn: 419′ (only one homer)

So, among guys with at least three homers, Alex Rodriguez just edges out Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher in the longest average home run department. If this was shocking to you, well, no, I’m not going to insult any of you; you all knew how this would end! Not surprisingly, Brett Gardner’s five homers average the shortest. The way his swing works, it’s rare for him to get a homer in the first place, let alone hit it far. Gardner has, however, had two no doubt homers.

Despite that lead in longest average homer, Rodriguez doesn’t lead the team in no doubt home runs. That honor goes to Nick Swisher, who has five.

Going forward, I expect few changes to this leaderboard. If Tex hits a groove, though, he could take second place from Curtis Granderson.

While longer homers don’t put anymore runs on the board (unless you’re playing Wiffle Ball at my house–if you can manage to hit the road that’s about 15 feet back from the HR “wall” you automatically get a grand slam), they sure are fun to watch. Hopefully, the Yankees can keep cranking out majestic shots for us to marvel at.

The return of Nick Swisher? Good.

The ankle injury to Marcus Thames? Not good.

The foot injury to Jorge Posada that will sideline him for 3-4 weeks? Really not good.

With Posada (and Johnson and Granderson) sidelined, the Yankee lineup remains much less circular than it did at the start of the year. Jorge’s return would have helped greatly. Obviously, it’s not going to happen so the Yankees must construct a lineup without their regular catcher for a little while.

Marcus Thames’ absence will also have a negative effect. This means there will either be a rotating DH (read: Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo will be in the lineup while a regular DHs) or the Yankees will have to let Juan Miranda hit against left handed pitching. This may not seem desirable, but after two years–2007 and 2008–of awful hitting against lefties in the minors (OPS’s of .664 and .551), Miranda’s apparently learned how to hit southpaws (.874 in ‘09, .952 in ‘10). Major League lefties are definitely a different beast all together, but the improvement is much welcomed. For the time that Thames is out, there really isn’t another option, unless the Yankees want to put a free out in the lineup in the person of Ramiro Pena. When Thames returns, a Miranda/Thames DH platoon should work out nicely.

A key to the Jorge-less lineup is going to be Nick Swisher. That he is back in the outfield is a big plus, especially now that Thames is hurt. If Swisher couldn’t play, the Yankees’ outfield would have absolutely no power threat. The return of Swisher also means a better, more powerful bat behind Robinson Cano. While he’s hit well, I don’t think we liked seeing Francisco Cervelli as the six hitter the last few nights. And while it may not be as intimidating as it was on Opening Day, a Swisher inclusive lineup is much deeper than the one the Yankees trotted out this week. The moral of this paragraph? It’s a good thing Nick Swisher is coming back right now.

If I had to guess, I’d say the lineup will look like this each night:

1. Jeter SS
2. Gardner CF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Swisher RF
7. Miranda DH
8. Cervelli C
9. Winn LF

The 7-8-9 isn’t great, but the 1-6 is still very solid. If the pitching staff can rebound from an awful stretch against Boston and Tampa, the Yankees should be fine while waiting out Granderson, Posada, and Johnson.

Let’s completely ignore sample size issues for a moment, shall we? In this outfield this season (prior to last night’s game, even), Marcus Thames has an UZR/150 of -17.4. Such a rating is inline with Thames’ previous fielding trends while with the Tigers. Basically, though this was made especially clear during last night’s game, he is the worst outfield defender on the Yankees’ roster. However, with Nick Swisher out, unless fans want to see the offensively anemic Greg Golson receive a ton of extra at-bats, Joe Girardi is forced to play him in the outfield (he has wisely shifted Thames over to right field, though, where there is less ground to cover, overall).

At the beginning of the year, Girardi actually played Thames in left, and seemingly had to learn just how bad Thames was with a glove through trial and error. I think it is pretty clear now that he is downright miserable, fielding-wise (even I did not think he would be this bad). When Swisher returns, the Yankees will have to employ Thames (and Miranda) at DH, because, regardless of his hitting, Thames is too much of a defensive liability to play in the outfield.

Now that we know Nick Johnson will be out until July due to undergoing wrist surgery, we need to assess the DH situation for the Yankees and determine how they should approach it.

The first choice, the “logical” one so to speak, is for the team to stomach Randy Winn in left (he’s actually hitting well in May (.822 OPS going into last night’s game in a super small sample size) while using a DH platoon of Marcus Thames vs. left handed pitching and Juan Miranda vs. right handed pitching. For some reason, though, Juan Miranda has gotten few PAs since being recalled last week. If he’s not going to be DHing against right handed pitchers, why is he even with the team? Either start using him, or send him back down to Scranton.

The second choice is one that I wasn’t wild about at first, but eventually I came around to it. At this point, it makes sense for the Yankees to call up a third catcher–Chad Moeller in this case–to be the back up catcher and let Francisco Cervelli catch full time while Jorge Posada DHs. Frankie is hitting really well right now and, defensively, he’s the best option behind the plate the Yankees have. At this point in the season, Posada is hitting well enough to justify DHing, so they won’t take much of a hit. It also saves him from catching until Johnson returns. The downside, of course, is that Cervelli isn’t going to hit this well all season. When he cools down, this lineup may not look as strong. If and when this happens, though, option one can be implemented while Posada moves back behind the plate (assuming he’s healthy enough to do so).

Option three is a trade or the free agent market. I’d guess the Yankees wouldn’t pursue this because there are “free” ways to fill in at DH. If they do turn to the markets, though, there’s a few options. Jermaine Dye is one and is probably a better option because he doesn’t require a forfeiture of prospects. Next, there are trade candidates Lance Berkman and Derek Lee. Meh. I like these guys a lot; they’re very good hitters. But, chances are the Yankees won’t want to give up prospects for a partial season of a DH. Taking that into consideration, other teams will probably put up better packages.

Knowing the Yankees, and having a general sense of roster construction, I’d say the Yankees are likely to go to option one because they probably won’t want to keep three catchers on the 25 man roster and don’t want to give up anything of value for not-a-whole-season of a DH. Hopefully, though, the Yankees go with option two. It optimizes catcher defense, doesn’t leave a hole in the offense, and saves Jorge’s aging legs for at least a time.

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

-Marcus Thames delivers the game winner off everyone’s favorite Red Sox, Johnathan Papelbon. Had Swisher not been out with a bicep injury and Posada not hurt his foot the night before, Marcus most likely would have never been in the game with Righty Dice-K as the starter. Then the Lefthander platoon specialist collects an RBI double and sac fly off Matsuzaka, and then gets the game winning HR facing another tough Righty in Paps. That’s just Baseball, Susan.

-Aaron Boone was in the booth for ESPN, along with Nomar Garciaparra. That would be a bit more spooky if the Yanks-Sox rivalry wasn’t loaded with these see-saw games where it’s never over until the final out is recorded. But if that still gives you goosebumps, go for it.

-In what may be the most under reported story from last night’s game Javier Vazquez collected the win in his abbreviated outing facing only one batter in Kevin Youkilis. Yankee fans have Javier’s last relief appearance emblazoned in their brains forever, but this time he fared much better. It came on the 1-year anniversary of his old nemesis Johnny Damon’s walkoff win for the Yanks last year over the Twins, which was the 3rd in a walk off in a row in that May Twins series that propelled the Yanks for the rest of the season, and onto a World Series championship.

-With our bullpen at full force, in all likelihood last night’s game would have played out much differently. But Joba was unavailable, Mitre had just pitched the day before, and Aceves is on the DL. There was a lot of second guessing Girardi’s bullpen moves from yesterday, but most of it was unwarranted. Joe Girardi explained why things played out as they did:

“I tried not to use Javy today, because I want to pitch him Friday.” Girardi said. “I want to make this clear; he was not skipped because of (the Red Sox). Our bullpen is a mess. I needed a long guy today. We could not activate Chan Ho Park if we didn’t have a long man.“

If Thames strikes out last night, the Vazquez move is brilliant and nobody’s second guessing Joe. The Red Sox had already used their long man in Wakefield, so the Yanks would have had a decided upper hand going into extra innings, even on a night when their bullpen was depleted. Also, for the folks decrying Logan’s appearance let’s review Bullpen Management 101: You don’t use your best guys first. You get what you can out of your lesser guys and have your better options backing them up. That’s why your closer is your best arm, setup man 2nd best and the long man is the least desirable. The Logan move was solid. It was the 6th inning, you weren’t facing the heart of the order (5-8) and you want to make V-Mart bat Righty to pull to the big part of the ballpark. It just didn’t work out. With Park giving up 2 consecutive HRs, there wasn’t much of a chance to minimize the damage there. I had zero issues with Joe’s moves last night, it was by the book given what he had to work with.

-Last and never least, Mr “unclutch” himself, Alexander Emmanuel Rodriguez. Remember that tag? Seems like a long time ago, and it is. In an inning where Paps made Tex and Cano look bad on splitters, he serves up a first pitch fastballs to Alex and Thames, who deposited them in the bullpen and the left field stands, respectively. With the injury situation piling up and some players due to fall back down to Earth, A-Rod finding his power stroke couldn’t have come at a better time. The Yankee manager agrees:

“He’s a weapon,” Joe Girardi said. “Everyone is in scoring position whenever he walks to the plate.”

Amen, Joe.

I have long advocated that the Yankees give Elijah Dukes a shot on their bench. With Curtis Granderson hurt, Randy Winn struggling, and Marcus Thames occupying the DH slot, the time is right for the addition of another bat. Yes, I know the offense is just fine and that the Yankees are a playoff team without Dukes. But the difference between Dukes and Winn could make a difference in October, and unlike other external bench options, it will not cost the Yankees any players to obtain Dukes.

I outlined the pros and cons during the offseason:

PROS

1) He has plenty of talent: He had a poor 2009 that was marred by injury and a strange loss of power, but his 2008 was fantastic and suggested that he was a star in the making. I am not really sure why he fell of a cliff in 2009, but it is clear that he has the skills and athleticism to be an above average player with the bat and adequate with the glove.

2) He projects to be better than the Yankees current options at 4th and 5th outfielder. His projected wOBA based on an average of four projection systems is .346, significantly better than that of Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

3) This is a good fit for Dukes: While he may not start right away, New York is likely his best shot to play in a winning environment for the first time while also affording him a reasonable chance of grabbing a starting spot. Being that Dukes has played for two awful franchises thus far, it might be a strong motivator for him to play with regularity for a winner.

4) He’s cheap, you can cut ties immediately if there is a problem, and he gives them options next offseason: Dukes will likely require less than a million dollars to sign, and can be stashed in the minors if he does not make the team immediately. Furthermore, there is no real downside here. If he acts up or plays poorly, he can simply be cut or traded without any repercussions.

CONS

1) His performance dropped in 2009, and he cannot stay healthy: His performance in 2009 was fairly shoddy, and he gained a reputation amongst National fans for having poor baseball instincts in the field and on the basepaths. Furthermore, Dukes has had trouble staying on the field, with 4 stints on the DL over the last 2 seasons. Then again, if he gets hurt, the Yankees would simply be right back where they are right now.

2) There are some very serious behavioral issues. I do not want to sweep these under the rug, because Elijah has had some serious issues that include multiple arrests and prompted the Nationals to hire someone to follow him around and keep him out of trouble. Furthermore, dropping that a player with that sort of history into the shark tank that is the NY media frenzy may not be the brightest of ideas.

Ultimately, I think it is worth a shot. As I noted above, if Dukes does not work out, the club is right back where they started and can go look for other options. If he succeeds, the Yankees will have obtained a young power bat for practically nothing. Why not give him a shot?

With Nick Johnson headed to the disabled list, the Yankees must make do without their regular DH for some time. Just the other day, Moshe asked us and you what we’d do in case Johnson did go down. Now that the situation has actually arisen, let’s take a look at the scenarios that Moshe posited through the lens of the Lineup Optimizer from Baseball Musings. For the OBPs/SLGs needed, I’m going to use the “Rest of Season” ZIPs projections found on each player’s page at FanGraphs.

Behind door number one, we have the Juan Miranda / Marcus Thames option. In this option, Juan Miranda DHs against right handed pitchers and Marcus Thames DHs against left handed pitchers, with Jorge Posada catching. Let’s see how this lineup would fare:

1. Jeter SS
2. Swisher RF
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Cano 2B
6. Posada C
7. Miranda DH
8. Winn LF
9. Gardner CF

Despite very bearish projections for Tex (.366/.492), Rodriguez (.382/.517), and Miranda (.317/.319), this lineup projects to score 5.372 runs per game. That would be about 870 runs over 162 games. That’s not the incredible offense we expect out of the Yankees, but it’s still good. Let’s see how the left handed side of this one would do, replacing Miranda with Thames*.

*The caveat here is that the ZIPs are not broken down in terms of platoon splits, so I’m going to use Thames’s career vs. LHP numbers. The same lineup, but with Thames in the seventh spot, would score 5.556 runs per game (900/162). Again, this has the same bearish projections for the aforementioned players and a very bullish (.337/.523 vs. LHP). This lineup would also be utilized against lefties in our door number two scenario. The versus righties lineup would be the “Moshe Plan” (he wrote that he liked it and I’m pretty sure he tweeted about it the other day) which would include Francisco Cervelli catching against righties, with Jorge DHing.

I’m not a huge fan of this plan because I don’t think Cervelli will keep up his hot start and hit enough to justify a spot in the lineup and it also forces the Yankees to carry a third catcher, an option not many of us like. It also makes the lineup a lot more “National League” looking, with Winn, Cervelli, and Gardner rounding out the final three spots.

Still, it projects to score more runs than the first option I presented (5.398/game, 875/162). It’s also worth noting that this lineup really optimizes the defense as well as the offense. Winn is definitely a better fielder than Thames in left and Cervelli is strong behind the plate. If he can match his ROS projection (.335/.397) and continue playing great defense, the Yankees should be fine in Nick Johnson’s absence.

So, going by the projected numbers, it seems Moshe is right. Using a catcher/DH platoon appears advantageous for the Yankees. We must also remember that the lineup will likely get even stronger when Curtis Granderson returns from his injury. When he comes off of the disabled list, Randy Winn and his weakening bat will return to the bench, Gardner will stay in the lineup and move to left, and Grandy will slide back into center. Moving forward, the Yankees seem to be in good shape even with an injury to their designated hitter.

P.S.
It’s the one year anniversary of my college graduation. Woo!

As we have stated many times since he signed with the team, Nick Johnson is not the greatest bet to make it through a season unbothered by injuries. Nick has never played more than 147 games, and missed all of 2007 and most of the 2008 season. He has had myriad injuries of all sorts, with various different body parts being afflicted. Already, he has sat a few games with a sore back, and missed a bit of time in Spring Training as well. The question I pose to you is, what would you do if he got injured and was slated to miss a long stretch of games? How would you alter the roster?

As I see it, outside of a trade, there are three options. One option that is quite unlikely to happen is to call up Jesus Montero. While his potential is enticing, he has struggled a bit at AAA and likely needs to log some more at-bats there to adjust to superior pitching. Furthermore, the most important element of development for Montero remains his defense, as his bat is close to ready while his glove lags far behind. Bringing him to the Major Leagues to DH would stop the development of his glove entirely, and would hinder his chances of ever turning into an adequate backstop.

The second option is to call up Juan Miranda. Much like Johnson, he would be the backup first baseman as well, and should be able to provide decent on-base ability and a bit of power. However, he is atrocious against left-handers, with a career .725 OPS against them (vs. .890 against righties) and therefore would need to be platooned with Marcus Thames. That would be a solid platoon, and should keep the Yankees in decent position while Johnson recovers.

The last option is to keep the roster as is in terms of hitters, and simply play Frankie Cervelli at catcher against all right-handers. Basically, Jorge Posada would DH against righties and catch when the opposing pitcher was a lefty (with Thames as the DH). This would help keep Jorge fresh while allowing the team to play their best defensive catcher more frequently. The team could use the extra roster spot to call up Mark Melancon, giving Joe Girardi another arm to throw in the mix.

Thankfully, this is simply a hypothetical at this point, as Johnson has remained relatively healthy. Hopefully, the fact that he is rarely going to play the field will help keep him healthy for the entire year, and these contingency plans are rendered moot. However, if they do need to fill in for him, I would go with the third option and just play Cervelli more. He is not atrocious offensively, and his value defensively makes this the best of the three choices to me.

What do you think?

Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News

-First and foremost, Javier Vazquez. Yes, it’s time to start worrying about him. He clearly has no confidence in his fastball, and for good reason. He’s only throwing it about 1/3 of the time, so from a hitters’ perspective pretty much everything is off speed. He needs to challenge hitters and set up his breaking stuff with the fastball, or else hitters can just sit back and look for the slow stuff. He says he feels fine physically, so much like with Phil Hughes in recent years it’s just a matter of getting him to trust his stuff more and let it loose. I wouldn’t go so far as bumping him from the rotation, but with the off days coming up it may be time to let him skip a start and clear his head.

-Marcus Thames. Have you ever seen a worse defensive Left Fielder? He makes me pine for Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui’s gloves. You can tell me all you want that he’s hitting .500 with an .857 SLG, but that’s not going to last while his bad defense will. I get that the ball from yesterday had some topspin on it, but once again we find ourselves saying that Brett Gardner makes that play standing up, and the damage from a bad inning could have been minimized. Don’t underestimate minimizing damage with Javier, he’s been prone to the big inning his entire career. Right now, the first priority has to be getting Vazquez going, so you have to put your best defensive team out there behind him. I don’t care if Randy  Johnson circa 1997 is pitching.

-Joe Girardi cleared up the confusion about the Morales AB in the 7th. He said that at first he gave the intentional walk sign, and then changed his mind. He obviously wished he went with his first instinct with the way things worked out. He screwed up, admitted he screwed up, so at least he gets credit for that. But what was already an ugly game got even uglier with his goof.

-Can’t be too upset with the loss. The Yanks are still 12-6 coming out of a very tough stretch facing some of the best competition in the AL and having major pieces of the team still trying to get on track. They can now look forward to playing  at Baltimore, then the ChiSox and Baltimore at home before heading back to Boston. 12-6 may not sound like a big deal, but it is in Baseball. If you did it all year you’d win 108 games.

-Next up the Yanks head to Washington, to get congrats from President Obama. Derek Jeter compared walking into the Oval Office to walking into George Steinbrenner’s office. What does he think, that this is going to happen?