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Discussion: Is It Different Coming Off A Title?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 6 Responses »
Apr 042010


I was having a discussion with @jaydestro on Twitter this morning that piqued my interest as to the psyche of Yankees fans. Jay correctly noted that many Yankees fans and local media members will likely overreact should the Yankees lose to the Red Sox tonight. I asked Jay whether he thought the Yankees having won the World Series last year would change the psyche of Yankee fans, and he answered in the negative, a position that I agree with. Many Yankees fans have a win-every-year attitude, whereby a 2010 that ends without a title would be a failure. The Yankees have the resources to win every season, and fans therefore expect the ultimate prize each year.

While I certainly understand that attitude, my feelings about the 2010 season are a bit different. All of the seasons following the Red Sox breaking the curse in 2004 started with a bit of panic, as we wanted to see the Yankees reestablish themselves as the powerhouse team in the AL East. The feeling about the Yankees was no longer that they would find a way to win. Rather, it seemed that they would save their worst performances for the most inopportune time. But 2009 changed all that. The team had an amazing killer instinct, pulled out tons of thrilling wins, and brought home the trophy in the postseason. As the Yankees start their first championship defense of my adulthood, I feel more at peace with the club, as if I can simply sit back and enjoy the ride rather than fret at every loss. While that feeling might dissipate over the long season, I think that in some ways, this is a house money season for me as a fan. I would love to see the Yankees win the World Series this season, and will still be emotionally involved in every game. But unless the season is a disaster, I will not be as devastated if 2010 ends without a championship as I was from 2005 through 2008.

How about you? Does 2010 feel different as a fan, coming off a title? Or are you still viewing the season as championship or bust?

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Discussion: Possible Starters In 2011

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:54 pm 25 Responses »
Mar 282010

Although it seems like the Joba debate will continue to roil forever (see the comments on Steve’s post), let’s move forward assuming that Joba is staying in the bullpen for the foreseeable future. If that holds true, then the Yankees will only have 3 starting pitchers under contract for 2011, with CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Phil Hughes forming a solid trio that the Yankees are sure to supplement with free agent signings. How might the Yankees fill those holes?

Obviously, Andy Pettitte can renege on his stated desire to retire after this season. Furthermore, Javier Vazquez has mentioned a willingness to go season-to-season on one year contracts, but I wonder if he will still be willing to do so if he has a moderately successful 2010 and has the ability to score a big contract on the free agent market. The following pitchers will be free agents:

Bronson Arroyo (34) – $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Beckett (31)
Erik Bedard (32)
Kris Benson (35)
Jeremy Bonderman (28)
Dave Bush (31)
Jose Contreras (39)
Kevin Correia (30)
Doug Davis (35) – $6.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Jorge De La Rosa (30)
Justin Duchscherer (33)
Shawn Estes (38)
Josh Fogg (34)
Jeff Francis (29) – $7MM club option
Freddy Garcia (35)
Jon Garland (31) – $6.75MM mutual option with a $600K buyout
Rich Harden (29) – $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
Aaron Harang (33) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Livan Hernandez (36)
Jason Jennings (32)
Hiroki Kuroda (36)
Cliff Lee (32)
Ted Lilly (35)
Rodrigo Lopez (35)
Kevin Millwood (36)
Sergio Mitre (30)
Brian Moehler (39)
Jamie Moyer (48)
Brett Myers (30) – $8MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Vicente Padilla (33)
Carl Pavano (35)
Brad Penny (33)
Andy Pettitte (39)
Tim Redding (33)
Nate Robertson (33)
Ben Sheets (32)
Jeff Suppan (36) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Brett Tomko (38)
Koji Uehara (36)
Javier Vazquez (34)
Brandon Webb (32)
Todd Wellemeyer (32)
Kip Wells (34)
Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
Chris Young (32) – $8.5MM club option

Cliff Lee is an obvious choice, and Josh Beckett and Brandon Webb are intriguing depending on the length of contract and their health. However, I do not see the Yankees signing two pitchers to long-term deals, and I am not thrilled with the second-level talent available. How much would it cost to get Ted Lilly? What about Jake Westbrook? Would Vazquez require more than 3 seasons? If Chamberlain does in fact stay in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely find themselves overpaying for one of those players, or trading prospects to acquire a starter. Hopefully, they can find a way to bring in someone willing to sign a short-term deal that can slot in as a reasonable 4th or 5th starter on a championship caliber team.

Which of these players interests you?

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Derek Wants To Be An Owner

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 6 Responses »
Mar 262010


As Chris mentioned this morning, Derek Jeter has lofty aspirations for his career once he is done playing:

The New York Yankees captain told The Associated Press that once his career is over, he envisions himself pursuing ownership of a professional sports franchise—like Michael Jordan.

Jeter, one of several athletes who endorses the Jordan Brand, was in Tampa Thursday at an event celebrating the launch of his ninth signature shoe, the Jordan Jeter Throwback.

Jordan recently purchased majority ownership of the NBA’s Charlotte Bobcats. Jeter stressed he has no interest in owning a small, non-controlling share of a baseball team.

“Oh yeah,” he said. “The only interest I have in ownership is to be able to call the shots. I’ve said that time and time again.”

While this sounds like a perfectly good plan, I see a few issues with it. Firstly, Jordan likely has more money than Derek does, and he needed to scrounge together enough cash to buy the Charlotte Bobcats. Unless Derek wants to buy a small market team and run them like a small market club, he may have a hard time getting sole control of a team. Now, he could join an ownership group, but that might erode his decision making power and does not seem like something that he is amenable to.

Additionally, I am not exactly sure if Derek is qualified to be in a decision-making position. Having great physical skills does not automatically mean that you have the wherewithal to properly construct a team or choose lieutenants to do it for you. In fact, we have seen many great athletes fail miserably once placed in such leadership positions. While he has not said anything over the years to suggest that he does not know how to build a team, he has not given any indication that he is in fact qualified either. He speaks in platitudes and cliches, so we have no real idea as to whether he understands the broader issues at play when constructing a front office and roster.

Quite frankly, I would prefer that my team have an ownership group much like the current Steinbrenner regime: plenty of money, hires a competent GM, and then allows the baseball people the latitude to make their own decisions within the constraints of the budget. Jeter is unlikely to have enough money to support a large payroll, and seems to want to be more of an involved owner. I am not sure that is a recipe for success.

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Discussion: Once Boss Is Gone, Will Kids Cash Out?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 8 Responses »
Feb 212010


Steve Lombardi, writing over at Was Watching this morning, surmised that the Steinbrenner clan may cash out of the Yankees once the Boss passes on. The suggestion was that most of the Junior Bosses do not really care that much about the team, and are simply running the club to continue their father’s legacy and attempt to impress him before he dies. Once he goes, most of them could simply search for a mega-payout and live off that for the rest of their lives.

I have two questions about this:

1) Do you agree with Steve? Prior to the 2009 season, I likely would have concurred with his evaluation of the season. However, it seemed to me that Hal warmed to the role as the year progressed, and was really gaining a feel for running the club by the time the offseason was reached. The fact that he set assessed the finances, set a budget, and stuck firm to that line despite the clamoring by Yankees fans for the return of Johnny Damon suggested that he is in this for the long haul. Someone with an eye towards cashing out might have been a bit more frivolous in terms of long term deals and big money, but Hal was the picture of restraint and prudence in this offseason. How would you interpret those actions?

2) Will it make a difference? Anyone willing to pay upwards of a billion dollars for the entire Yankees conglomerate is likely to continue pouring money into the club. In fact, my one worry about a new owner is not that he might spend to little. Rather, I am afraid that we might see a return to the bad old days of the George Steinbrenner 1980′s, where a Dan Snyder or Jerry Jones type comes in and begins directing particularly short-sighted personnel decisions. While the Yankees of the last 40 years have been a perfect cautionary tale on this issue, having billions of dollars often leads people to believe that they can do anything, and that rules that apply to others are not an issue for them.

What do you think? Do you fear the day when the Yankees are not owned by Steinbrenners?

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Discussion: Rivera or Jeter Harder To Replace?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 7:00 pm 32 Responses »
Feb 112010


With the expiration of their contracts looming, a future without Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera is on the minds of many Yankees fans. Today, River Ave Blues asked their Twitterati the following question: which one of the two will be easier to replace once his time as a major leaguer is up? I opined that Jeter will be more difficult to replace, and my reasoning is two-fold.

1) Jeter will leave a bigger hole. Both are of the best at their respective positions, with Rivera undisputably the greatest closer of all-time. However, a transcendent everyday player provides more value than an otherworldly closer, particularly in the regular season. Just to illustrate that point, Jeter has not notched fewer than 3.7 WAR in any season since 2001. Rivera has never had a WAR in excess of 3.2. Of course, the postseason narrows the gap a bit, as Mariano essentially becomes an everyday player during the postseason, thereby maximizing his value. Even so, I believe the edge goes to Jeter.

2) Jeter will be more expensive to replace. Replacing Jeter with someone of equal value would require the acquisition of someone like Troy Tulowitzki or Hanley Ramirez. Either player would require a huge outlay, both in terms of prospects and total contract value. Meanwhile, closers such as Joakim Soria, Joe Nathan, and Jonathan Papelbon (ugh) are likely to reach free agency, and will require deals of significantly lower total value.

In sum, I believe Jeter will be more difficult to replace. Do you agree? Disagree?

Photo Credit: Reader’s Digest

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Discussion: Who Plays Left Next Year?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:30 pm 27 Responses »
Aug 192009

The only major roster question that the Yankees have for 2010 is what to do with left field, and by extension, the DH spot. Here is my plan, and I encourage you to chime in with your plans below.

Johnny Damon becomes the regular DH. The Yankees inquire on Matt Holliday, but pass if his cost exceeds 3 years 45 million. If so, the Yankees sign Mike Cameron to play LF, with Xavier Nady and Chone Figgins being my backup plan. This is how I would break up the playing time based on that scenario. I did this quickly, so feel free to correct my numbers if they are off.

Cameron:
120 starts in LF
20 starts in CF

Damon:
40 starts in LF
110 starts at DH

Swisher:
135 starts in RF
15 starts at 1B

Teixeira:
147 starts at 1B
10 starts at DH

A-Rod:
140 starts at 3B
15 starts at DH

Posada:
110 starts at C
25 starts at DH

Gardner/Melky combined
27 starts in RF
2 starts in LF
142 starts in CF

What would you do?

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2010 Free Agency and the Yankees

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:01 pm No Responses »
Feb 162009

The last few days have brought some articles on the total spending done during this offseason that highlight the amount of that spending done by the Yankees. According to Maury Brown, the Yankees were responsible for 40.8 percent of the spending done this year, a staggering figure that is likely to engender criticism. It seems like the Yankees are back to being the same old Evil Empire, with no budget and no regard for the struggling economy. However, looking at all of the circumstances makes the Yankees shopping spree quite understandable. The Yankees shed 88 million in payroll this offseason, and are moving into a new stadium. Those are two sources of revenue that they could have chosen to spend or to save. Looking forward to the 2010 free agent class, it seems obvious that the Yankees made their decisions with an eye towards the future. Here are some of the interesting big names, via Cot’s contracts:

First Basemen

Carlos Delgado NYM
Aubrey Huff BAL
Nick Johnson WAS
Adam LaRoche PIT

Second Basemen

Mark DeRosa CHC
Placido Polanco DET
Brian Roberts BAL

Outfielders
Rick Ankiel STL
Jason Bay BOS
Vladimir Guerrero LAA
Matt Holliday OAK

Starters

Erik Bedard SEA
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Rich Harden CHC
John Lackey LAA
Brett Myers PHI
Brad Penny BOS
Jason Schmidt LAD
Jarrod Washburn SEA

It’s a pretty weak class when compared to the cream of the crop from this season. The Yankees signed Teixeira rather than go with Swisher in 2009 and bet on someone like Aubrey Huff in 2010. Outside of John Lackey, all of the pitchers on that list have either health or performance issues, so the Yankees took themselves out of the starting pitching market for a few seasons. In regard to outfielders, that is the one position where the Yankees may shop in 2010. However, there will be plenty of quality outfielders on the market to keep the price suppressed, and the Yankees will likely only need one corner outfielder, assuming they allow Damon, Nady, and Matsui to leave. I listed second basemen as well, because another subpar year from Cano would likely involve the Yankees in that market as well.

The point of this is simple. The Yankees had plenty of available money to spend and needed to evaluate where best to invest. They looked to the short term future and rightly determined that the 2009 free agent class was best suited to serve their long term needs. The final bill may seem exorbitant, but I think it will seem less so when the Yankees are not major players in 2010 free agency.

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