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News Day: Pettitte, Arbitration Decisions, MVP, Cashman (Update)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:24 pm 13 Responses »
Nov 232010

Today was a day loaded with news, so let’s dive right in.

1) Ken Davidoff is reporting that Andy Pettitte is leaning towards a return to the Yankees in 2011. This is fantastic news, as it makes the Yankees a bit less reliant on signing Cliff Lee and means that they are likely to be at least as good in the rotation this coming year as they were last season.

2) The Yankees are going to offer arbitration to Kerry Wood and Javy Vazquez, but not Derek Jeter. The Jeter decision likely stems from a fear that he would accept it and make 18-22 million dollars next year, although it may have just been a good faith effort to show Jeter that they are committed to reaching a long-term agreement with him and do not want to unnecessarily injure his bargaining position. Javy has already agreed to decline arbitration, meaning the club will gain a supplemental draft pick once he signs with another club. Finally, the Wood decision was the most surprising, but the logic behind it is fairly sound. The market for relievers has been set at an insanely high level, so there is a chance that Wood rejects the offer to sign a long-term deal. If he accepts, the Yankees have an asset, either in the form of a good set-up man, or as a potential closer inked to a one year deal who would be an attractive trade chip. We have no word on Lance Berkman yet, but I doubt the team offers him arbitration. The market for him has failed to materialize, and I would expect him to accept the offer if it was made.

UPDATE: The Yankees did not offer arbitration to Wood. I think this illustrates the fact that the Yankees do in fact have a budget, and cannot simply give every player what they want or “deserve.” The possibility of being “stuck” with Wood for one year at 10-12 million dollars was too great for the Yankees to chance offering him arbitration.

3) Robinson Cano finished 3rd in the AL MVP voting behind Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera, which is exactly where I had him on my imaginary ballot. He did not receive any first place votes but received the most second place and most third place votes. It was an excellent season and I am glad to see that he was recognized.

4) The Yankees and Derek Jeter continued to negotiate through the press, and Brian Cashman had some fairly strong words today:

“We understand his contributions to the franchise and our offer has taken them into account,” Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com. “We’ve encouraged him to test the market and see if there’s something he would prefer other than this. If he can, fine. That’s the way it works.”

[...]

“I was certainly surprised,” Cashman said in regards to Close’s use of the word baffled. “There’s nothing baffling about our position. We have actually gone directly face to face with Casey and Derek and been very honest and direct. They know exactly where we sit.”

[...]

“We believe that Derek Jeter is the best person to play shortstop for this franchise moving forward,” Cashman said. “Do we want to lose Derek Jeter? No. Do we want to treat Derek Jeter fair? Absolutely. Do we want to be treated fair at the same time? No question about it.”

[...]

Asked if there was any chance the negotiation could fall apart and Jeter could somehow wind up in a different uniform next year, Cashman said, “Not from us. We would like Derek Jeter to be a Yankee and we’re making our best efforts to keep that in play. But it takes two.”

I agree with every last word that Cashman said, and it is gratifying to see that the GM is on the same wavelength as much of the fan base on this issue. However, nothing was gained by making these comments publicly, and it is time for the Yankee brass to stop talking about this. All the talking does is entrench Jeter in his position, as he will look awful if he concedes now and takes the Yankees initial offer. I still thinks this gets done, probably for 3 years and 54-57 million, but both sides need to stop negotiating in the press and start hammering out a deal that is fair for the club while allowing Derek to save face.

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Letting Go Of Wood

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 4 Responses »
Oct 292010

Cliff Corcoran of the excellent Pinstriped Bible checks in on Kerry Wood:

Kerry Wood posted a 1.344 WXRL and 0.69 ERA with the Yankees, but he also walked 18 men in 26 innings. He was lucky. Opponents hit .236 on balls in play against Wood after he came over from Cleveland, and just 3.1 percent of his fly balls left the ballpark, down from a career rate of 8.6 percent. Meanwhile, he gave up fly balls and line drives more often than he had previously in his career.

Wood’s high strikeout rates allow him to get away with more walks more than a less powerful pitcher could, but walking 5.7 men per nine innings, as Wood did in 2010, is playing with fire, and his home run rate is sure to shoot back up next year, particularly if he spends half of his home games pitching in the new Yankee Stadium. Wood will be 34 in June and has a extensive injury history, which begs an unwelcome comparison to Marte, who turned 34 soon after signing his current contract.

Cliff goes on to note that there are better and likely cheaper options available on the free agent market, and that the Yankees could fill bullpen roles internally as well. I am partial to Scott Downs, a lefty who can actually get righthanders out, which would give Girardi more options in the late innings. However, Downs is a Type-A free agent, which means that signing him would cost the Yankees a draft pick. This is the one advantage that Wood has over the free agent options, as he would not cost the Yankees picks should they resign him.

Nevertheless, I would pass on Kerry. I think Wood is likely to disappoint the team that inks him to a pricey two or three year deal this offseason. He has been worth more than .4 wins once since 2004, and his inability to stay healthy combined with the general volatility of relievers make him a poor investment. He simply puts too many runners on base to be trusted regularly in important spots. During the regular season, you do not want to be forced to use your closer to bail him out in the 8th inning of games in which he does not have his control. Someone will sign him to close, and the lack of a safety net will prove problematic when he start to walk the ballpark. The Yankees got an excellent few months out of Wood, and they should be content with that and walk away.

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Questions for the Hot Stove and Beyond

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Oct 292010

The official start of the Hot Stove season isn’t until after the World Series, but friends, it is never too early to start thinking about it. Steve hit on the top ten things the Yankees must do in the offseason earlier, so I won’t rehash something like that. Instead, I’m going to offer up a few brief questions, give a few brief answers, and leave them for you all to talk amongst yourselves.

1. Brandon Laird is coming off of a career year and has a 1.002 OPS in the Arizona Fall League thus far. The way I see it, there isn’t much room for Laird on the big club in the near future. His trade value is never going to be higher than it is now, unless he hits well at AAA Scranton to start the 2011 season. I don’t know if that’s worth risking. The Yankees should look to shop Laird now, likely as part of a package, because I think he’ll add more value to the team going forward as a trade piece than he will with his own play.

2. What’s going to happen with the OF bench situation in 2011? I’m assuming the Yankees will employ the same outfield they did for most of 2010–Gardner, Granderson, Swisher from LF-RF. It’s the extra outfielders who may look different. Austin Kearns will most certainly be gone. Marcus Thames may be back, but I honestly hope not. It’s nothing personal, Marcus…only business. He did great job in 2010 but the chances of 2010 being repeated are really, really, REALLY small. If the Yankees are smart–and they usually are–they’ll let Thames walk. The only problem is that there aren’t many good free agent options and the in house options–Colin Curtis and possibly Brandon Laird–are uninspiring. New York may have a lot of 40 man spots open, though, so they could snatch someone up from the Rule V draft like they did last year with Chad Huffman (even though that didn’t go well).

3. Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood, and Javier Vazquez are all type B free agents so there is absolutely no point in offering any of them arbitration. Granted, the chances of that wouldn’t be high even if all three were type A free agents. Lance Berkman will most certainly be gone, as will Javier Vazquez. Kerry Wood may be back, but I’m not going to hold my breath.

I’m very torn on Kerry Wood. He pitched well for the Yankees, obviously, but he’s always at risk for injury and chances are someone is going to offer him closer money. If I were going to offer Wood a contract, though, it would probably be pretty modest. His $11MM option was just denied and at most, I think I’d offer Wood a one year deal worth $5-6 million. Not long ago, I was okay with splitting the option over two years, but a two year deal for Kerry Wood isn’t a great idea. Would it be nice to have Wood as the set up guy in 2011? Yeah, sure. But is it necessary? No, I don’t think so.

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Savers and Drainers, Pitcher Edition

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Oct 272010

We looked at the Yankee savers and drainers on the offensive side of things yesterday, so today, let’s look at the pitching side of things. Again, we’ll go top 9 guys in fWAR order.

1. CC Sabathia, 5.1 fWAR worth $20.4MM. Salary: $23MM. Value: -$2.6MM
2. Phil Hughes, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.5MM. Salary: $0.447MM. Value: +$9.053MM
3. Andy Pettitte, 2.3 fWAR worth $9.2MM. Salary: $11.75MM. Value: -$2.55MM
4. Mariano Rivera, 1.7 fWAR worth $6.8MM. Salary: $15MM. Value: -$8.2MM
5. Joba Chamberlain, 1.4 fWAR worth $5.6MM. Salary: $0.487795MM. Value: +$5.1122MM
6. A.J. Burnett, 1.3 fWAR worth $5.2MM. Salary: $16.5MM. Value: -$11.3MM
7. David Robertson, 0.7 fWAR worth $2.9MM. Salary: $0.462650MM. Value: +$2.437MM
8. Ivan Nova, 0.5 fWAR worth $1.8MM. Salary: N/A. Value: N/A
9. Kerry Wood, 0.4 fWAR worth $1.5MM. Salary (Yankees only): $8.3279MM. Value: -$6.8279 $2.0279MM. Value: -$0.5279MM.

Ivan Nova’s salary wasn’t listed on Cot’s, but we can assume he gave the Yankees at least decent value because there’s no way he made anything close to $1MM this season. Kerry Wood’s value looks a lot worse than it is because the Yankees picked up most some of his salary from Cleveland and with just 26 innings for the Yankees, there’s no way he could’ve come close to matching his value he came close to matching his salary with them, but couldn’t quite get there.

CC Sabathia’s high salary makes him look less valuable, but the fact that he came so close to matching it just goes to show how awesome a pitcher he is.

Phil Hughes was essentially the pitching version of Brett Gardner: cost controlled talent producing at a relatively high level and giving the Yankees a ton of value. Hughes hits arbitration for the first time this year, so it will be interesting to see what his salary is going forward.

Joba Chamberlain, also arbitration eligible for the first time, provided a good deal of value for the Yankees, too–the second most on the team after Hughes. It’s worth noting that fWAR likes Joba a lot more than bWAR which had him at 0.4 WAR.

A.J. Burnett…well, yeah. The numbers speak for themselves there.

Mariano Rivera’s numbers look odd because he’s so highly paid, yet as a closer, he doesn’t pitch enough innings to rack up a very high WAR. Rivera did have the fourth highest fWAR among AL relievers, behind Matt Thornton (2.2), Joakim Soria (2.1), and Neftali Feliz (1.8).

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Good Wood: the battle of Kerry and Chad is over

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:02 pm 3 Responses »
Oct 082010

wood

OK Orlando, here comes a fastball.  Ready?  Strike three. Photo courtesy of daylife.com

Back in July the Yankees and the Rays both acquired bullpen arms to prepare for the stretch run.  At the time, I was torn between which team got the better reliever.  In my piece Wood vs. Qualls, I discussed the differences between the two pickups: Wood had higher upside but health concerns, while Qualls was a groundball machine who had seemingly run into horrific luck on balls in play but possessed less strikeout ability.  At the time I concluded that I preferred the Yankees’ haul:

The Yankees now have a potentially-dominant reliever able to take the reins on the 8th inning and combine with Robertson and Marte [note: whoops!] in the playoffs to give Girardi a potent arsenal.  The Rays have a stabilizer, the type of pitcher that can generate ground balls and limit the free passes, a guy that they hope can fill the role that Balfour played before going on the DL after hurting himself rough-housing in the clubhouse.

All things considered, I would probably prefer Wood to Qualls.  The Yankees only realistically need 30-40 solid innings out of their reliever, and while I tend to expect Qualls to rebound by the end of the year I am enticed by Wood’s potential dominance.  Hopefully the Yankees can catch lightning in a bottle. Regardless, both clubs did well to take on relievers with good track records and decent upside for minimal cost.  The moves were savvy, the types with potential to pay big dividends in October.

In August and September, Chad Qualls saw action in 27 games, pitching 21 innings.  He struck out 15 and walked 6, and allowed 15 runs, 13 of them earned.  This amounts to an ERA of 5.57 and a FIP of 3.89.  Qualls saw an improvement in his BABIP, as it dropped over a hundred points from his .434 mark in Arizona to .332 with Tampa.  Meanwhile in New York, Kerry Wood gradually grew into the role of eighth inning setup man.  In the regular season he pitched 26 innings, striking out 31 and walking 18.  He allowed only 2 earned runs, and held batters to a .161/.311/.195 line against.  His ERA was a microscopic 0.69 and his FIP was 3.39.  The closeness in their respective FIPs aside, the regular season was a clear win for Wood.

In the postseason both Wood and Qualls have seen action in both games.  On Wednesday, Qualls relieved David Price and pitched a scoreless inning and a third.  The game was already pretty much out of reach by then.  The Rangers  were winning 5-0 and Lee was large and in charge.  Yesterday, Qualls relieved James “Big Mouth” Shields with runners on first and second and one out and Michael Young at the plate.  After running the count to 2-2, Young tried to check his swing on a slider down in the zone.  The umpire said he held up but the Rays players were apoplectic, several of them screaming at the umpire from the dugout.  On the next pitch, Young golfed a 94 mph sinker over the center field wall to give the Rangers a 5-0 lead, and they never looked back.  Checked swing aside, this was a big moment for Qualls and he couldn’t get the job done.

Kerry Wood has also pitched in both playoff games, each time as the eighth inning option.  In Game 1 he entered the eighth with a two run lead to face Michael Cuddyer, and promptly struck him out.  He followed that up by walking Jason Kubel, and then allowed a single to Danny Valencia, meaning that the Twins had runners on first and second with one out.  Girardi left him in to face Hardy, and Wood got him to ground out to Cano.  The runners advanced to second and third, and Girardi brought in Rivera to face the lefty Span with two outs.  All in all, it was a decent enough outing, but not his best.  Apparently he was saving his best for last night.

As the Twins and Yankees headed to the bottom of the eighth, the Yankees led 5-2 and brought in Wood to face the J.J. Hardy.  Wood simply embarrassed him.  After missing with a first pitch fastball, a 95 mph heater down in the zone, Wood threw Hardy two straight sliders.  The first one was taken for a strike, and Hardy swung and missed on the second one.  These were excellent sliders with great horizontal action.   They broke away from the right-hander Hardy like a cutter, darting away from him at the last second.  Now with the count 1-2, Wood didn’t return to the slider or the fastball.  Instead, he dropped a 78 mph curveball on the inside part of the plate for strike three.  You can see the knee-buckling curveball in this video clip on MLB.com.  It was hardly fair.  In terms of the sequence and the quality of pitches it was one of the best at-bats I’ve seen from a Yankee reliever this season.

After Hardy, Wood took on Denard Span.  Wood went to the fastball first and got a called strike on a 95 mph heater on the outside corner.  He then threw Span a slider that cut in his hands, and Span could only foul it off.  In a way, it was a lot like the way Rivera’s cutter treats lefties.  He followed that slider with another one, this one over the middle of the plate, and Span flied out to center. In the last at-bat against Hudson, Wood went exclusively with the fastball, daring Hudson to hit it.  He threw him three straight heaters around 95 mph, and Hudson struck out on three pitches.  Inning over.  Enter Sandman.  Exit light, enter night.

If you had asked me to describe my absolute best-case scenario when the Yankees acquired Wood two months ago, I would have said something like this: “Gradually earn the manager’s trust in low-leverage positions as he gets fully healthy, then emerge as a late-inning shutdown option as the season moves into September”.  Yet, as optimistic as I was, I didn’t actually expect it to happen.  Kerry Wood still walks way too many batters, and there’s always the looming specter of a blowup or a shoulder blowout.  But here we are in October, and there was Kerry Wood standing on the mound in the eighth inning putting the proverbial ether rag over the Twins’ faces last night.  Realistically, the Yankees only need 5 to 8 more innings out of Kerry Wood this year.  If he can pitch the way he did last night, the games will effectively be over in the seventh inning.  The Wood vs. Qualls battle is practically over.  This one was a clear win for the Yankees.

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A Tale of Two Relievers

Posted by Steve S. at 7:02 am No Responses »
Oct 042010

I want to compare the numbers of two pitchers to illustrate a point.

Pitcher A:
ERA-0.38
G-19
IP-24.0
H-12
SO-34

Pitcher B:
ERA-0.69
G-24
IP-26.0
H-14
SO-31

Both are Yankee relievers in different seasons. One pitcher lit the world on fire while the other quietly equaled his performance. Anyone want to venture a guess?

Pitcher A is 2007 Joba Chamberlain, Pitcher B is 2010 Kerry Wood. Both had terrific performances that built the bridge to Mariano in their respective seasons. But where was all the hype for Wood? Why aren’t fans printing up the equivalent of the ‘Joba Rules’ T-shirts (‘Got Wood?’) and wearing them all over the stadium? The answers are obvious and simple, but they illustrate how much of what fans get caught up in is fluff and narrative, or unimportant in evaluating pitchers. Kerry Wood is an aging power pitcher whose best days are behind him. He was picked up in a uninspiring mid-season deal for a PTBNL. The oft-injured Wood was coming off yet another DL stint when the Yanks acquired him. No fanfare, no excitement, just another aging relief pitcher who the Yanks took a flyer on.

07 Joba was as new as can be, having spent just one season in the Yankee farm system blowing through 3 levels. He lit up radar guns, throwing the ball 100 MPH and making hitters look silly on a devastating high-80′s slider. A phenom with a big fastball and a catchy nickname, no 9 year old kid can resist that. His wheelchair-bound Dad comes to watch him play. Throw in some fist pumps and we have as good a story as you’ll find.

What does any of this have to do with on the field Baseball?  Not much. It was Joba’s first time through the league, and many pitchers without big fastballs will blow away superior competition simply based on unfamiliarity alone. He was called up in early August, so he was facing teams in the dog days of the season followed by expanded rosters in September. The ‘Joba Rules’ assured he would avoid fatigue, getting regular rest built in to his work. So each and every time he came in he was strong and had his best stuff. Joba himself was in mid-season form, having built up his arm to be a starter in the minors. It’s much easier to go from starting to bullpen duty, so Joba could just get loose and let it fly. All the stars were lined up for Joba to be successful.

But 2010 Kerry Wood shows that 07 Joba-like performances happen more often than we notice, just without all the fanfare. How many times have you seen a pregame stat saying Pitcher X has given up just 1 run over his past 3 starts? The 24 innings that Joba threw in 2007 is roughly 3 starts worth of work. But when a starting pitcher does the same thing there’s no dramatic entrance, no theme music, no swashbuckling hero saving the day with men on base in a late game situation. Just a pitcher getting hitters out. The league never got a chance to adjust to Joba in 07. It took advance scouts some time to notice how spotty his control was, how straight his fastball often is, and how inconsistent his command can be. Fans still hold onto the dream of 2007, as if it’s something Joba still has within him. He might, but if he does it will likely come in a short burst and fade just as quickly. 07 Joba is a lesson in small sample size, one that happens more often than we think.

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The Four Horsemen of the Apoca-pen

Posted by Stephen R. at 1:00 pm 12 Responses »
Sep 092010

4 horsemen

Much has been made recently of the relative struggles of the Yankee pitching staff.  Sure, it’s nothing in comparison to what Texas is going through, but the Yankees are still waiting on Andy Pettitte to return from injury, for one of AJ Burnett or Javier Vazquez to find some semblance of form and earn the fourth spot in the rotation in the playoffs, and for Phil Hughes to right himself after recent struggles.  Additionally, both Damaso Marte and Alfredo Aceves are out for the year.  On the offensive side, the club is also battling through injuries.  Nick Swisher has a noticeable limp and a deep bone bruise in his knee, Austin Kearns has a bruised hand, Jorge Posada has concussion symptoms (but has been cleared to play, thankfully), and Francisco Cervelli has been diagnosed with an awful case of not being a very good baseball player and deserving to be demoted or at least rarely get playing time.

Yet perhaps lost in the shuffle is the excellence of the Yankee bullpen, a bullpen which is shaping up to be a formidable weapon in October.  With the acquisition of Kerry Wood, the Yankees now have four very solid pitchers able to close out games, not counting Mariano Rivera. Since the All-Star Break, here are their numbers:

Boone Logan, LHP: 16 innings, 0.55 ERA, 10 hits, 4 walks, 19 strikeouts.

Joba Chamberlain, RHP, 23.2 innings, 4.18 ERA, 22 hits, 7 walks, 22 strikeouts.

David Robertson, RHP, 21 innings, 1.25 ERA, 13 hits, 11 walks, 30 strikeouts.

Kerry Wood, RHP (since coming to the Yankees on 7/31): 16 innings, 0.54 ERA (1 earned run), 10 hits, 10 walks, 20 Ks.

Of these four, Yankee fans can be most happy about Boone Logan and Kerry Wood.  Both came to the team with huge question marks.  Logan throws hard but struggles with command.  Wood has been an incredibly successful pitcher at times, but can’t stay healthy.  Yet both have performed about as well as anyone could have anticipated.

As a result, the Yankees have four legitimate set-up options for Joe Girardi to play with in the playoffs.  Better yet, there is currently no predetermined setup man.  This means that each reliever can be utilized as the situation demands, and that higher leverage situations will be handled by the appropriate reliever. There are some obvious usage patterns that have developed thus far, though. Logan’s primary purpose is to retire left-handed batters, and he’s performed superbly, holding them to a .188/.278/.219 line. Girardi also seems to prefer using Robertson when there are runners on base, possibly because Robertson’s ability to get strikeouts is so incredible (10.91 K/9 in 2010).  Additionally, he seems to trust Wood more than Chamberlain at this point.  However, this hasn’t meant that Chamberlain has been relegated permanently to the 7th inning, and Wood to the 8th.  Instead, he seems free to bring in Wood in higher leverage spots, whether it be the seventh or the eighth.  Often times, he will let Wood pitch the 8th as well, or go to Chamberlain for lower-leverage spots.  It could just be a small sample, but it does appear that Girardi favors Wood in the higher leverage spots, regardless of inning.  This is how a bullpen should be managed.

Despite the loss of Marte and Aceves and the relative struggle of the early-season 8th inning man, Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees’ bullpen is in a good position headed into the playoffs.  They have four relievers peaking at the right time, and it will enable Girardi to have a shorter leash with some of the more unstable starters.  It’s almost frightening, actually, like handing a 16 year old the keys to a Porsche and telling him to keep it under 90 mph.  Girardi has the tendency to play the matchups in the bullpen, and sometimes it blows up in his face.  But it’s a good problem to have, really, and it could prove to be one of the Yankees’ strongest weapons this playoff season.  And I haven’t even mentioned the Greatest of All Time, #42.

For the record, yes, I did try to make the title as obnoxiously over-the-top as possible.  Feel free to use it and turn it into a meme.  Also, the Photoshop is courtesy of me.

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Kerry On

Posted by Rebecca Glass at 6:03 pm 2 Responses »
Aug 262010

The following was originally posted at http://www.puristbleedspinstripes.com

It’s been a long time since Kerry Wood struck out twenty as a Chicago Cub.

A long time, filled with injuries and disappointments and ultimately relegation to bullpen duty. Many point to Wood’s struggles, and that of another one-time Chicago Cub, Mark Prior, in being the impetus towards today’s obsession with young pitchers and doing everything possible shy of actual bubble wrap to protect them (see “Strasburg, Stephen” and “Joba Rules” (the latter under 2007/2008 entries) ).

It’s been a long time and I’m not sure how many ever thought he’d find himself playing for the Yankees–certainly not as a late inning reliever, and one fourth on the pecking order, after Mariano, Robertson and Joba–and yet, here his is, quickly becoming Cashman’s best mid-season acquisition of the year.

Just think about where the Yankees’ bullpen was before the deadline: outside of Mariano, and possibly Robertson, there was perhaps no one in whom Yankee fans had much faith. Joba may not have been blowing leads left and right, but it felt like it, and Logan pitched so poorly he was optioned to the minors.

Enter Wood, who as a Yankee has an ERA under one and thirteen strikeouts in 10.2 innings pitched (before Tuesday’s game). In fact, the only run Wood has allowed as a Yankee, inherited or otherwise, came on a solo home run–that on August 3rd, Wood’s second ever game in pinstripes.

He’s not allowed a run since.

In fact, if one looks at Wood’s gamelogs, one will see that 1/3rd of all runs Wood has given up this year came in one third of one inning against Kansas City on May 19th*

That’s not to say he hasn’t allowed baserunners–seven walks and nine hits as a Yankee (as of Tuesday afternoon) say otherwise–but no runs is still no runs.

When Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin seem to be battling to find out who wants to get DFA’d first and the starting rotation is such that only 2/5ths of it are healthy and pitching as they’re supposed to be pitching, Wood’s performance is a breath of fresh air.

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Elias and the Yankees

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Aug 232010

MLBTR came out with some updated Elias Free Agent Rankings yesterday, so I thought I’d scan the list for Yankee free agents and see whether or not I’d offer that guy arbitration.

The first to come up is under the 1B/DH/OF category: Lance Berkman. Right now, he profiles as a Type B free agent, meaning the Yankees would receive a supplemental round draft pick if they offered Fat Elvis arbitration and he rejected.

Berkman’s salary this season will come in at $14.5M and he has a $15M option for 2011, which the Yankees will obviously not pick up; instead, I think they’ll opt for the $2M buyout. This one is pretty obvious: there’s no way in hell the Yankees offer arbitration to Lance Berkman. His salary is way too high and he’s strictly a rental for this season. The market for a player like Berkman will likely be incredibly small. This one’s a no brainer.

In the same category is Austin Kearns, who does not have a type attached to him. This is another no brainer: they will not offer Kearns arbitration, either. That doesn’t mean they won’t attempt to bring him back, but there’s no real reward for offering him arbitration. It is worth noting that Kearns is only making $750,000 this season so any raise he’d get in arbitration wouldn’t be huge. However, I don’t think he’d accept and if he rejects, the Yankees get nothing. I’d like to see him back with the team next year as the fourth OF, but if he finishes 2010 strongly, he could be off for greener pastures and a starting gig.

Nick Johnson profiles as a Type B, but he has an option to get through. That option won’t be picked up. It sucks that Nick’s second go ’round with the Yankees couldn’t have been more productive, but them’s the breaks, as they say.

Marcus Thames, like Kearns, has no type so there is no upside to offering arbitration. Thanks for doing a job, Marcus. Maybe there’s a bench spot for you again next year.

Staying in the position player vein, there’s Derek Jeter (Type A). In my perfect world, the Yankees offer Derek Jeter arbitration, he accepts, and is paid a whole lot for just one year, and the Yankees and Jeter go year to year after that. Back in the real world, though, that’s not going to happen. Many would see offering Jeter arbitration disrespectful, which is an angle I can sort of see, but don’t necessarily agree with. Still, maybe they’ll do it just-in-case. Imagine the impossible scenario in which Jeter ends up leaving, and the Yankees don’t even get draft pick compensation. None of that is going to happen, though.

Andy Pettitte is also a Type A, but we know with Andy it’s either the Yankees or retirement. Again, I doubt the Yankees would offer him arbitration. Like they’ve been doing, they’ll either see Andy off into retirement or continue their year to year arrangement with him.

Javier Vazquez is likely to qualify as a Type A free agent but at this point, there is no way the Yankees can or should offer Vazquez arbitration. Vazquez is really a double edged sword here. If they let him go without offering him arbitration, the organization will be second guessed since they won’t get draft picks. If they do offer him arbitration, he’d likely accept since the market for him will be small. The market for durable pitchers is always big, but the inconsistency Vazquez has displayed–along with the drop in velocity and the miles on his arm–is likely to scare teams away. He’s making a lot of money, too, so I don’t think Vazquez will be offered arbitration.

Rounding out the list is Kerry Wood who won’t be offered arbitration–nor should he be as his salary is rather large. Again, this isn’t to say I don’t want him back on the Yankees, but there’s no way he should be offered arbitration.

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Bring Back Wood?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 11 Responses »
Aug 192010

Kerry Wood has been pretty good since coming to the Yankees. Despite some control issues, six walks per nine innings, he’s been effective. He’s allowed just seven hits and one run while striking out thirteen (after a 0.2 IP, 1 H, 2K performance last night). Overall, I like what I’ve seen from Kerry Wood in his brief time with the Yankees.

Next season, Kerry Wood has a team option worth $11M. That’s a whole lot of money and there’s no way the Yankees should exercise it. I’m pretty sure they’re smart enough not to. However, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t bring Wood back.

Wood’s stuff has still been fantastic this year and I would not hesitate to offer him a contract for 2011. Like I said when he was traded to the Yankees, at best, he’s a dominant reliever who could close if need be. At worst, he’s a hard thrower who misses bats. Those are both valuable things in at least some capacity.

Relievers, though, are tricky. Today’s valuable piece could be tomorrow’s DFA fodder. It’s also worth noting that some of Wood’s numbers have been trending the wrong way for the last few years.

Perhaps, then, there should not be a Damaso Marte like offer made. That is, I don’t think Cashman should make a multiple year offer to Wood. Ben Kabak and I were Tweeting about this the other night and we thought maybe the Yankees could offer a two year deal, essentially splitting the $11M on Wood’s option, which might be a little much, but not terrible. However, it’d probably be better for the Yankees to offer Wood a one year deal at a price lower than the $10.5M he’s making this year. Maybe one year with a low base and a few incentives/escalators? What do you guys think?

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