From Tom Verducci:

I know this to be true because Curt Schilling told me years ago. His theory was that the Red Sox and Yankees are so evenly matched that the team that gets the most starts out of its top five starters will be the better team. It’s amazing how right he has been….

Let’s look at the past seven years, the era in which Boston and New York essentially have been near-equal rivals, and examine the correlation between which team got the most starts from its top five and which team had the most wins….

Schilling has been right four straight years. Only once in the past seven years did the team with more starts have fewer wins, but even that occasion needs an explanation. It happened in 2004, when the Red Sox — who got an incredible 157 starts from five starters — may have had three fewer regular season wins than New York but beat the Yankees in the ALCS and won the World Series.
So determining who is better this year, the Red Sox or Yankees, becomes a very simple exercise: just forecast which team will get more starts out of its top five starters. And when you do that, the answer becomes obvious: the Yankees will be the better team.

I think Verducci is correct here. While you can argue about which rotation is more talented, it is clear that the Yankee rotation is more reliable. In the Red Sox rotation, Verducci dubs only Beckett and Lester as reliable, and even Beckett has some question marks regarding his health crop up occasionally. Conversely, CC Sabathia and Javier Vazquez are two of the more durable pitchers in the game, Andy Pettitte has remained healthy with consistency despite his advancing age, and AJ Burnett seems to have found a way to stay off the DL after years of struggling with injuries. Furthermore, the Yankees have greater depth, with 8 solid starting options, while the Red Sox have a larger drop-off after their top 6.

This study is obviously not dispositive, and the club that gets fewer starts from their top 5 starters can compensate in other areas. However, considering two similar bullpens and the Yankees superior lineup, the fact that the Yankees project to be more reliable in the rotation bodes well for their chances in the AL East.

(Just a thought: this sort of concept might be self-fulfilling. With teams like the Yankees and Red Sox, poor starters will not be given much of a chance, and the 5 guys with the most starts will usually be 5 fairly good options. In this way, counting the number of starts from the top 5 is just as much about effectiveness as health (whereas with lesser teams, the top 5 might simply be the 5 healthiest guys, because they do not have many effective options). As such, the team with the most starts from the top 5 is likely to be most effective and will rack up a larger number of wins.)

With the offseason slowly drawing to a close, it looks like the Yankees were in fact serious about maintaining a modicum of fiscal responsibility. However, some have suggested that Brian Chasman is just saving his bullets for next offseason, when there is a class of free agents that Cashman has previously professed admiration for. Dayn Perry runs through the big names, and I would like to highlight the players I think the Yankees would have interest in:

1. Joe Mauer, C
Opening Day 2011 Age: 28

2. Cliff Lee, LHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 32

3. Brandon Webb, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 32

4. Derek Jeter, SS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 37

These four players make up the top tier of talent, and at least one of them (Jeter) is almost certain to be in pinstripes in 2011. I strongly believe Mauer will sign in Minnesota, as their new ballpark and Mauer’s hometown roots makes this a perfect marriage. Regarding Webb, his recent shoulder injuries make him a significant risk. Although he will likely be cheaper than Lee and his groundball ways make him a solid fit for Yankee Stadium, I would stay away from him. Lee is the better option, and I think that the Yankees will be all-in on Cliff to take the rotation spot vacated by either Andy Pettitte or Javy Vazquez. I could see the Yankees offering Lee 5 years at 19 million per year. Jeter will likely get a similar salary for a reduced number of years. 4 years and 75-80 million will get it done.

5. Carl Crawford, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 29

6. Jayson Werth, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 32

8. Josh Beckett, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31

Beckett is good, but let’s be objective: He’s not an ace on most staffs. Beckett’s career ERA of 3.79 is solid enough, but just three times in his career has he managed at least 200 innings in a season. It’s also worth noting that since Beckett arrived in Boston and supposedly achieved “ace-dom,” his ERA is 4.05. That’s a tick or two better than the league average, but the numbers simply don’t rise to the level of Beckett’s reputation. That said, if you’re looking for a No. 2 man, then Beckett is a reasonable choice. Just be sure pay him like a No. 2 man. Lee and a healthy Webb are both significantly better.

10. Adam Dunn, OF/DH
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31

This next tier includes a number of players who might be good fits in NY but have certain flaws that make their acquisition entirely dependent on the market. Dunn would be a bargain on a deal similar to the one he signed with Washington, as he would fit perfectly in Yankees Stadium and 2 years, 20 million would likely be less than his actual value. Similarly, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are both versatile players who add a lot both offensively and defensively. However, I would not touch either player if they required a deal more than 4 years, and even then the AAV should not exceed 14M a year. I hate Beckett, and added Perry’s note on him because it illustrates my contention that Josh is slightly overrated. That said, if the market for him bottoms out due to injury concerns and outsized demands, expect Brian Cashman to kick the tires on him.

11. Mariano Rivera

12. Manny Ramirez

13. Huston Street

15. Javier Vazquez

16. Rafael Soriano

If Javy Vazquez has a very strong year, I could see the Yankees attempting to sign the workhorse to a long term deal. However, if he is just solid, he will likely get a 3 year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million, a price the Yankees should shy away from. I could see the Yankees entering the 2011 season with Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Chamberlain, and either Andy Pettitte or a free agent like Cliff Lee in the rotation. Regarding the bullpen, if Mariano continues to act like a vampire, the Yankees will have to shell out some dough to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal, depending on his preference. No matter what happens with Mo, I could see the Yankees being in the market for a top reliever, so as to allow both Joba and Hughes to start. If so, Street and Soriano would both be good fits. Finally, I have long advocated bringing in Manny, but unless he is asking for a 1 year deal for 10 million or less, I cannot see Cash biting.

Photo Credit: ESPN.com

With the Yanks extending their lead to 7.5 last night and playing like an unstoppable freight train, I wanted to take a look north and see what out main rivals have been up to. Win or lose, it is never dull and always seems on the verge of breaking out into a food fight.

-Josh Beckett had another bad outing last night, making it his 4th in a row. Last night’s effort puts him at 0-2 with an 8.88 ERA in his last four appearances. He claims he’s healthy, but it’s worth noting he was shut down at this time last year and his struggles last season started around mid-August as well. This year, they don’t have the luxury of shutting him down. There have long been doubts about his shoulder in Boston, and since the Sox are more secretive with injuries than Bill Belichick we can only speculate something is going on health-wise. I’ll say this, if Beckett can’t turn this around I think the Sox will miss the playoffs. They just won’t have enough pitching and I still think the Rays still have a run in them.

-If you’re wondering why Red Sox fans are ticked off at Paps, and why they’ve been kicking around the idea of Josh Bard as the closer, it has to do with statements like these:

“I’m here to get my fair share of money,” Papelbon said. “My main priority is to stay healthy and be able to make money, not to go out and try and hurry up and win a championship this year (at the risk of injury). It’s not like I’m hurrying up and going back to the closer’s role because we have a good team this year and I’m going to blow (my arm) out and try and win as many games as we can (at any cost). No, it’s not going to happen.

“I’ve got a lot of money to be made in this game, whether it’s with Boston or not. My goal is to make sure I’m ready to play every day and to make money, and you can’t make money if you’re sitting on the bench. That’s the way I look at it.”

Now the reality is many players feel the exact same way, and don’t care about the team like fans do. It’s a job to them, one that is unpredictable with a limited window of opportunity to earn big money. We all know that. But when you come out and say this stuff publicly (especially as bluntly as he does) then all you accomplish is to turn most fans against you. Theo will offer him the same contract when free agency comes with or without these comments, and statements like these could have the reverse effect of making it easier to let him go. The edit button, Paps. Use it once and a while.

-Jon Lester says his hip is fine. He’s been the Sox most consistent starter all year and hasn’t shown any ill effects on the mound.

-The always media-shy Curt Schilling is interested in running for the US Senate. No, I’m not kidding. He released this statement via his 38 Pitches blog on WEEI.com:

While my family is obviously the priority, and 38 Studios is a priority, I do have some interest in the possibility. That being said, to get to there from where I am today, many many things would have to align themselves for that to truly happen. I am not going to comment further on the matter since at this point it would be speculation on top of speculation.

My hope is that whatever happens, and whomever it happens to, this state makes the decision and chooses the best person, regardless of sex, race, religion or political affiliation, to help get this state back to the place it deserves to be

That would make . . . what, two comedians in the Senate, right?

CC Sabathia threw 6 2/3 innings last night, giving up 3 ER on 8 hits while capturing his league-leading 15th win. He walked 0 and struck out 8. Although CC labored in the Fenway finale, tossing 118 pitches to Jose Molina, he was hurt by a couple of defensive miscues from Robinson Cano (one can argue that the pop-up error was on Tex for not taking control of the play). Cano’s pair of errors ultimately extended CC’s outing yet the Boston lineup deserves a lot of credit for making him work.

Luckily for Sabathia, the Yankee offense got it going against Sox ace, Josh Beckett, scoring 8 ER off him—5 of which were on HR’s—over 8 IP. Prior to yesterday’s effort, Beckett had been undefeated at home, so the victory was no small task. In the end, the Yankees won, 8-4, as they now hold a commanding 7 1/2 game lead over Boston. The team has also won 7 of its last 10 and can return home on a high note (especially with today’s off-day) as they prepare for their series against Texas.

Despite my overwhelming desire to discuss anything but last night’s Yankee game, it has to be addressed. I’m sure many Yankee fans switched over to draft coverage rather than watch AJ Burnett’s inability to throw strikes and a red-hot Josh Beckett at the top of his game mowing down Yankee hitters. If you did switch to the draft after the first few innings, you didn’t miss much. You missed some decent low leverage bullpen work by the Yankee relievers and a base hit by Brett Gardner. That’s it.

After last night’s performance, AJ Burnett might consider throwing a pie in his own face. He was dreadful from the outset, unable to locate his fastball and having a curveball that was non-existent. He threw 84 pitches, but only 40 for strikes (48%). You can’t win in the big leagues pitching like that, and certainly not against a patient team like the Red Sox.

Beckett on the other hand was masterful, challenging hitters with n outstanding fastball and putting them away with a nasty curveball. He’s on a hot stretch, picking up where he left off in May (3-0 2.91 ERA) after getting off to a slow start in April (2-2 7.22 ERA). The Yanks did a good job of running up Beckett’s pitch count and getting him out of the game by the 6th, but that only meant they had to face Baseball’s best bullpen in Fenway.

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The Yanks are now 0-6 against the Red Sox, with a still unsteady Chien Ming Wang facing Tim Wakefield tonight. I’m sure many Yankee fans are starting to wonder if we simply can’t play with this team. I’m not. As much as we’d like to beat the Red Sox, its just one game in the standings and means little come October. If this was the playoffs, Burnett would never be facing Beckett unless CC was injured. Our bullpen would likely have Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain, and possibly other reinforcements from the trade market. The Red Sox are looking to make a deal or two themselves.  Either us or the Red Sox could have key injuries or players who are banged up and underperforming by then, as Josh Beckett was last year. So much can change in a week, so 3 months ahead isn’t even worth getting into.

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I’d like to end on a positive note, so here’s the best thing that happened last night. Brian Bruney threw a bullpen side session and says he feels strong enough to return to the active roster. I’m still hoping to get a few more looks at Phil Hughes working out of the bullpen before Bruney returns. With Sergio Mitre pitching well in AAA, we don’t really need Phil to be our 6th starter. However, our bullpen needs all the help it can get.

When I first heard the news that Josh Beckett had been suspended 6 games due to his altercation with Bobby Abreu, I was a bit surprised. I was unsure that he deserved the suspension, as it was unclear to me that he intended to throw at Bobby’s head. However, my next reaction was: I hate Josh Beckett, so I do not particularly care whether he deserves the suspension or not.

This got me thinking about all of the Red Sox I have hated over the last 15 years. I do not hate all of the Sox players by nature. I never minded Manny and Nomar, and players like Varitek, Ortiz, and Drew do not bother me at all. On the other hand, I could not stand Pedro Martinez, and Curt Schilling’s motor mouth drove me crazy. On the current club, I strongly dislike Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, and Papelbon, all guys who portray themselves as gritty but are really just punks with gunk on their helmets. Beckett, in particular, seems like the kind of guy who thinks the world of himself, and cannot help but mouth off at the worst times. My top 5 (from worst to umm.. better than worst) would probably read Beckett, Schilling, Pedro, Papelbon, and Youkilis.

Which Red Sox have you found particularly loathsome? Who is in your bottom 5?

Red Sox
1.) Beckett
2.) Dice K
3.) Lester
4.) Wakefield
5.) Penny/Smoltz

Tampa Bay
1.) Kazmir
2.) Shields
3.) Garza
4.) Price
5.) Sonnanstine

Yankees
1.) Sabathia
2.) Wang
3.) Burnett
4.) Chamberlain
5.) Pettitte

I think we can all agree Toronto is #4 and Baltimore is #5. But what I’m really interested in are the 3 contenders. Toronto could possibly be higher, they led the league in fewest Runs Allowed (610) last year. But with the very quiet off season they’ve had and the losses of Burnett, Marcum and McGowan, its hard to argue for them being able to duplicate last year’s performance.

The Yanks have 3 guys with top of the rotation stuff (CC, AJ, Joba) and Wang might be the best 4th option in Baseball. I think Andy will be solid, people seem to forget that there were questions about him holding up through the season going into ST last year, because he wasn’t able to keep up with his off season conditioning program due to the Clemens/Congress distractions. The Yanks do have some questions on health, but no more than anyone else does.  AJ Bunett’s fragility has been overstated (avg 183 IP over last 4 years ) and Wang’s injury wasn’t even arm related. They also have more depth to deal with injuries this year, with last year’s opening day #4 (Hughes) and #5 (Kennedy) in AAA.

The Red Sox may still have the best pitcher of the 3 teams in Beckett, but he was shut down for a month late last year with an injury that the Sox were (and still are) very evasive about. It makes you wonder about the shoulder that the Sox were so worried about when they saw his medicals after they traded for him in November 05. The one Gammons said was described to him as “chopmeat” by a Red Sox exec, and they demanded (and received) extra compensation for in reliever Guillermo Mota. But until he visits Dr Andrews, you still have to assume he’ll be great. Dice-K is another story, he can’t keep walking 5.06/9IP and succeed in MLB. He appears to be falling into the same pattern that has plagued other Japanese imports like Hideo Nomo, becoming increasingly bat shy and trying to get outs with pitches outside the zone. He was ‘a Houdini act’ last year, but his luck won’t last forever. Lester is terrific and you expect good things from him, but after that it’s a mess. Who knows what Wakefield gives you anymore and I have no idea what they were thinking with Penny. He was horrendous last year (6-9 6.27 ERA) with LA and has a bad shoulder which hasn’t been operated on yet. They’re going to have trouble every 4th and 5th day, and their bullpen is still thin in the middle. Smoltz is a wild card, but at age 42 and coming off shoulder surgery, it’s hard to count on him. Smoltz may very well be used out of the bullpen if needed. Their off season moves (including Saito) appear to be intended to buy time for Bucholtz, Bowden, Masterson, Bard and others to develop. And they’ll need them to, especially if they suffer any injuries to the top 3.

Tampa figures to be outstanding top to bottom, and Price may very well be the best pitcher on the staff. But given that it will be his first full season in the bigs, its tough to expect him to dominate right away. Kazmir is very good and if can learn to economize his pitches he can get even better. But the elbow injury from last April bears watching. Shields is the most complete pitcher they have, Garza can be as good (or bad) as his maturity allows him to be. The 1-2 punch of Price/Garza could eventually be as good as there is in the game, but that figures to be a few years down the road for both of them. Sonnanstine is a nice #5, and they have good options in AAA backing him up. The Rays enjoyed exceptional health from their starting 5 last year, which is difficult to repeat. Given how young many of their starters are, their health history is still somewhat incomplete. Tampa will pitch well and catch the ball, the question will become whether they can score enough runs to keep up with the Yanks and Red Sox.

I would rank them as follows

1-Yankees
2-Tampa
3-Boston
4-Toronto
5-Baltimore