According to Newsday’s Ken Davidoff, the Yankees “went after [John] Smoltz hard before they acquired Javier Vazquez.” Given the lack of solid options available on the current free agent market, Smoltz, 42, would have been a nice pickup had the Yankees not acquired Vazquez. I would rather have his low-cost upside – 8.42 K/9, 4.06 K/BB, 3.87 FIP last season – than, say, Joel Pineiro at two-years and $16 million. Plus, by adding Smoltz, the Yankees probably would have signed Johnny Damon by now (though I wonder what would have happened to Melky/Gardner). So, while Vazquez is a much better option, signing Smoltz would not have been a bad move, all things considered.

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If the Red Sox release John Smoltz, should the Yankees consider signing him?

I know the proposition may sound absurd after Smoltz’s brutal performance in the Bronx just a week ago, however, if he can be had at the pro-rated major league minimum then it seems like Smoltz could be useful. Right now, the Yankees are looking at Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin to help them round out their rotation. Russ Ortiz, Kei Igawa, Josh Towers and Jason Hirsh could also be used to fill-out the pitching staff. Is Smoltz any worse than the guys I just mentioned? His 8.33 ERA would suggest that he is, yet his 4.93 FIP and .390 BABIP—which is bound to regress—may offer a glimmer of hope. His command and his stuff (7.43 K/9) are also pretty good this year, as evidenced by his 3.67 K/BB. In fact, this season, Smoltz has been an excellent pitcher against righties, holding them to a .232 BAA. If he can just figure out how to pitch to lefties in the AL (.444 BAA), then he could be a worthwhile pickup.

Imagine the great storyline the acquisition would bring, as well. That would definitely be something, especially if Smoltz signs and is a better pitcher while with the Yankees. Of course, I’m not saying that he’s worth a contract for that reason. Instead, what I am saying is that given his experience and based on a few of his statistics (i.e., FIP, BABIP, K/9, BB/9), it’s not ridiculous to think that he’ll rebound if given another opportunity to pitch—that’s all, and maybe that opportunity will be in New York.

As I celebrated the Yanks huge 4th inning last night, I couldn’t help but feel a twinge of sadness for the great John Smoltz (or ‘Shmoltz’ as Paul O’Neill would say) as he walked off the mound. He’s one of the best pitchers of his generation, part of Yankee history with Game 5 vs Andy Pettitte in the 1996 World Series, and by all accounts one of the most hard working and classiest guys in the game. Here’s what Red Sox manager Terry Francona said after yesterday’s debacle:

“Once it went, it seemed to go in a hurry,” said manager Terry Francona, who looked downtrodden. “We have a lot of things we need to talk about. When I get done answering questions, I will give Theo [Epstein] a call.”

Even Smoltz himself is unsure of his own fate, and said this after the game in the same article:

When asked if he’s confident he’ll make his next start, Smoltz had a curious, if not understandable, answer.

“I just want to wake up and go to work tomorrow and see what happens,” he said.

So much for the much-ballyhooed Red Sox pitching depth we heard about all spring. I never bought into it myself. The idea behind the Smoltz signing was to have a great pitcher (albeit an aging one) with an amazing pedigree who would get better as the season progressed, and be ready to dominate by this time. His age wouldn’t be an issue since he’d only have to work half a season. This was Theo creating this year’s Roger Clemens, covering his bases with a HOF pitcher if somebody in his rotation got hurt. He could even use him out of the bullpen if needed, setting up a dream 1-2 punch with Smoltz and Paps. At the time he was signed, Theo said this:

“The reason that we’re acquiring John Smoltz is to put him in a position to get back to 100 percent and dominate in the most important times of year for us,” said Epstein, the team’s general manager, on the day of Smoltz was introduced. “That works backward from October, the stretch run, the second half of the season.”

But as we Yankee fans learned with Clemens and Randy Johnson, it’s hard enough for a healthy 40+ pitcher to go from the NL to the AL East and succeed, much less one coming off major shoulder surgery. Had the Yankees signed Smoltz, all we would have heard about are the question marks surrounding him, but for some reason the Sox got a pass. Two World titles in the past 5 seasons will certainly buy you some slack with the media, but that doesn’t mean the move made sense. And when will people ever learn that when the Atlanta Braves give up on a pitcher (Smoltz, Glavine, Jaret Wright) they probabaly know something you don’t. Mainly that he doesn’t have much left.

Red Sox
1.) Beckett
2.) Dice K
3.) Lester
4.) Wakefield
5.) Penny/Smoltz

Tampa Bay
1.) Kazmir
2.) Shields
3.) Garza
4.) Price
5.) Sonnanstine

Yankees
1.) Sabathia
2.) Wang
3.) Burnett
4.) Chamberlain
5.) Pettitte

I think we can all agree Toronto is #4 and Baltimore is #5. But what I’m really interested in are the 3 contenders. Toronto could possibly be higher, they led the league in fewest Runs Allowed (610) last year. But with the very quiet off season they’ve had and the losses of Burnett, Marcum and McGowan, its hard to argue for them being able to duplicate last year’s performance.

The Yanks have 3 guys with top of the rotation stuff (CC, AJ, Joba) and Wang might be the best 4th option in Baseball. I think Andy will be solid, people seem to forget that there were questions about him holding up through the season going into ST last year, because he wasn’t able to keep up with his off season conditioning program due to the Clemens/Congress distractions. The Yanks do have some questions on health, but no more than anyone else does.  AJ Bunett’s fragility has been overstated (avg 183 IP over last 4 years ) and Wang’s injury wasn’t even arm related. They also have more depth to deal with injuries this year, with last year’s opening day #4 (Hughes) and #5 (Kennedy) in AAA.

The Red Sox may still have the best pitcher of the 3 teams in Beckett, but he was shut down for a month late last year with an injury that the Sox were (and still are) very evasive about. It makes you wonder about the shoulder that the Sox were so worried about when they saw his medicals after they traded for him in November 05. The one Gammons said was described to him as “chopmeat” by a Red Sox exec, and they demanded (and received) extra compensation for in reliever Guillermo Mota. But until he visits Dr Andrews, you still have to assume he’ll be great. Dice-K is another story, he can’t keep walking 5.06/9IP and succeed in MLB. He appears to be falling into the same pattern that has plagued other Japanese imports like Hideo Nomo, becoming increasingly bat shy and trying to get outs with pitches outside the zone. He was ‘a Houdini act’ last year, but his luck won’t last forever. Lester is terrific and you expect good things from him, but after that it’s a mess. Who knows what Wakefield gives you anymore and I have no idea what they were thinking with Penny. He was horrendous last year (6-9 6.27 ERA) with LA and has a bad shoulder which hasn’t been operated on yet. They’re going to have trouble every 4th and 5th day, and their bullpen is still thin in the middle. Smoltz is a wild card, but at age 42 and coming off shoulder surgery, it’s hard to count on him. Smoltz may very well be used out of the bullpen if needed. Their off season moves (including Saito) appear to be intended to buy time for Bucholtz, Bowden, Masterson, Bard and others to develop. And they’ll need them to, especially if they suffer any injuries to the top 3.

Tampa figures to be outstanding top to bottom, and Price may very well be the best pitcher on the staff. But given that it will be his first full season in the bigs, its tough to expect him to dominate right away. Kazmir is very good and if can learn to economize his pitches he can get even better. But the elbow injury from last April bears watching. Shields is the most complete pitcher they have, Garza can be as good (or bad) as his maturity allows him to be. The 1-2 punch of Price/Garza could eventually be as good as there is in the game, but that figures to be a few years down the road for both of them. Sonnanstine is a nice #5, and they have good options in AAA backing him up. The Rays enjoyed exceptional health from their starting 5 last year, which is difficult to repeat. Given how young many of their starters are, their health history is still somewhat incomplete. Tampa will pitch well and catch the ball, the question will become whether they can score enough runs to keep up with the Yanks and Red Sox.

I would rank them as follows

1-Yankees
2-Tampa
3-Boston
4-Toronto
5-Baltimore