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Implications of the Yanks-Red Sox Offseason Moves

Posted by Steve S. at 6:18 am 7 Responses »
Dec 172009

The recent moves by the Yanks and Red Sox have roster and trade implications for both teams. Lets take a minute and examine the potential fallout from each team’s perspective.

Yankees-Curtis Granderson: By adding Granderson’s bat, it greatly lessened the need for the Yanks to bring back Johnny Damon. That’s why Brian Cashman has a number in mind for Johnny, and if it takes more to sign him he’ll simply walk away. Many have used the recent 2-19 Bobby Abreu deal as a benchmark, but Abreu was signed to be the Angels everyday RF. The Yanks are (appropriately) signing Johnny to be a part time DH, which lessens his value to the team. You could also argue that the Yanks already have a better outfield than last year, even without signing Johnny. Curtis Granderson’s bat is similar to Johnny’s, and he’s far better defensively. So if you were to play Curtis in Center and move Melky to Left, you roughly maintain last year’s offensive output from your outfielders while upgrading yourself defensively at two positions. Johnny would be signed as much to replace Hideki Matsui as he would be to play Left Field, and as a part time DH he simply doesn’t have nearly the same value to the team. There are other, far less expensive options like Mark DeRosa or Nick Johnson, and Brian Cashman knows this.

Yankees-Jamie Hoffman: A seemingly small move as the first overall Rule 5 draft pick, but if the Yanks were to retain Johnny Damon and he was to split his duties between LF/DH, it would make either Melky or Brett Gardner very expendable. Granderson’s value is derived from him playing in Center, so Melky/Gardner would automatically be pushed to part time duty in Left. Throw Hoffman in the mix and one of these guys would never play. Gardner’s range is less important in Left and Melky’s arm is a bigger plus, so Gardner would likely be relegated to bench duty as a 5th OF/pinch runner. Though it’s worth noting that Hoffman’s skill set is very similar to that of Melky, so the Yanks may opt to trade Melky and keep Brett around as a bench player for his speed and defense. In any case, Hoffman makes one of the current outfielders redundant, so whoever has more value could be traded for some bullpen help. A 2nd Lefty would be nice.

Red Sox-Mike Lowell: His trade gives the Red Sox enormous flexibility to pursue replacements at a number of positions. They could sign a 3B like Adrian Beltre, they could move Youkilis to 3B and trade for a big bat at 1B like Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez, or they could shift Victor Martinez to 1B and try to find a Catcher via trade or a free agent stopgap. We’re already hearing rumors that they’re targeting Adrian Gonzalez and I’ll bet Theo makes a call for Miguel Cabrera as well, who would cost less in talent due to his enormous contract.

Red Sox-Mike Cameron: His signing signals the end of Jason Bay’s Red Sox career, unless they plan on putting CF Jacoby Ellsbury in a big package to get a big bat, and there are already reports of them doing just that. If they land Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres, at 10.5 mil over the next 2 years they would still have room to be a dark horse for a LF like Matt Holliday or to jump back in on Jason Bay should his market recede.

Red Sox-John Lackey: With a strong rotation of Beckett-Lester-Lackey-Matsuzaka-Wakefield it potentially frees up Clay Buchholtz to be moved in a deal for a position player as discussed above. Even if they don’t love Wakefield as their #5 and/or feel his back won’t hold up, Buchholtz is still expendable. 5th starters are a dime a dozen, they can sign a guy off the scrap heap and patch things together.

The Red Sox have the potential for a monster off season if they add Cameron, Lackey and Gonzalez/Cabrera. And again, I wouldn’t rule them out on Matt Holliday should they land Adrian Gonzalez with his ridiculously inexpensive contract. That all depends on how you calculate the payroll, which I won’t get into here but check out the 1st comment I left below. If the Yanks want to maintain their edge going into next season, they still have work to do. As things stand right now, the Boston rotation is simply better than the Yanks. The Red Sox lineup still lags behind, but a deal for a big bat at 1B will narrow the gap, and if they somehow land Matt Holliday as well, then they would be clearly ahead. Yanks need a starting pitcher and to solve their LF situation to maintain the top perch in the AL East.

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Lackey headed to Boston

Posted by Chris H. at 1:45 pm 54 Responses »
Dec 142009

From Ken Rosenthal, although Ed Price originally broke the story:

Free-agent right-hander John Lackey underwent a physical Monday with the Red Sox, an indication that he is close to an agreement with the team, according to a major-league source.

The deal is expected to be similar to the five-year, $82.5 million contract that the Yankees awarded free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett last winter.

If the Sox sign Lackey, then they would have the best rotation in baseball (led by Beckett, Lackey, Lester).

The signing could help the Yankees pursue a Roy Halladay or a Matt Holliday, though, as Boston is likely out of the bidding for those two players (unless they can acquire Halladay without giving him an extension). I’m sure many will sound the alarm and argue that the Yankees should now acquire Halladay, however, in my opinion, I don’t think he’s a necessary piece for the team.

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Heyman: Yankees Like Lackey

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 4:19 pm 27 Responses »
Nov 092009

From Jon Heyman:

The world champion Yankees have top free-agent pitcher John Lackey on their free-agent shopping list, sources said. The Yankees aren’t expected to be as aggressive this winter on the free market as last offseason and they haven’t firmed up all their plans as yet, but one league source said of Lackey, “He’s definitely on their radar.”

Word is that the Yankees probably will be willing to repeat A.J. Burnett’s $82.5 million, five-year contract for Lackey. Although, one person close to Lackey — whose offer to stay with the Angels this spring was for less than $40 million over three years on top of this year’s $10 million salary — indicated the longtime Angels right-hander sees himself in a higher echelon than Burnett. Lackey was 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA for the Angels last year and has been their ace for some of his eight seasons there.

Even if postseason hero Andy Pettitte returns to the Yankees — and he told a few teammates he believes he’ll come back for one more year, though there’s no definitive word on this — the Yankees envision themselves looking at the starting-pitching market since they are uncertain whether Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will start or work out of the bullpen next year. The Yankees used a three-man rotation in the playoffs out of necessity.

I am a huge John Lackey fan, so I would not be upset to see the Yankees bring him in. However, assuming Andy Pettitte comes back, wouldn’t that money be better spent on Matt Holliday? Personally, I think the Yankees should sign their own guys to short term deals and sit out this free agency class, but if they do decide to hand out “Burnett” money, it would be better spent on getting younger in LF/DH rather than adding another starter to a team that should be fine pitching-wise in 2010.

Agree? Disagree?

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ALCS G5: Yankees @ Angels

Posted by Chris H. at 7:37 pm 18 Responses »
Oct 222009

The lineups via LoHud:

YANKEES
Derek Jeter SS
Johnny Damon LF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Hideki Matsui DH
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Melky Cabrera CF
Jose Molina C

Pitching: RHP A.J. Burnett (0-0, 2.19 ERA in postseason)

ANGELS
Chone Figgins 3B
Bobby Abreu RF
Torii Hunter CF
Vladimir Guerrero DH
Kendry Morales 1B
Maicer Izturis 2B
Juan Rivera LF
Jeff Mathis C
Erick Aybar SS

Pitching: RHP John Lackey (1-1, 1.38 ERA in postseason)

TIME/TV: 7:57 p.m., FOX

Here are Lackey’s numbers against the Yankees.

Here are Burnett’s numbers against the Angels.

Lackey needs to be careful with Derek Jeter (who is battling a cold), Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Melky Cabrera tonight, as all four players have had success against him in the past. Conversely, Burnett must be careful with Bobby Abreu, and Chone Figgins. Surprisingly, despite being on the brink of elimination, Howie Kendrick and Mike Napoli aren’t in the lineup, though both have very good numbers against Burnett (thanks, Scioscia).

If the Yankees win tonight, they’ll head to the World Series to face the Phillies.

Go time…

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Matsui will DH in Game 5

Posted by Chris H. at 5:45 pm 2 Responses »
Oct 222009

Via Marc Carig, we learn that Hideki Matsui—not Jorge Posada—will DH in today’s game. For the past 2 days, there had been some debate as to whether or not Posada would DH given his numbers against Angel starter, John Lackey. Girardi’s decision to start Matsui as the DH allows Posada to come in later for Jose Molina while keeping Matsui in the lineup, simultaneously.

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Why the cold affects some pitchers more than others

Posted by Steve S. at 8:44 am 1 Response »
Oct 172009

Baby, it's cold outside

As we tuned in to last night’s Yankee-Angels match up, we were greeted by players who were bundled up for the 45 degree game time conditions with winds and light rain that made it feel much colder. Eric Aybar and Robinson Cano were bundled up like Eskimos and looked more suited for the ski slopes than a baseball game.

We saw CC Sabathia, a classic power pitcher who features a fastball and slider dominating hitters all night. John Lackey, who relies more heavily on his curveball to get hitters out struggled to get through the evening, allowing 12 baserunners in 5.2 innings of work. This isn’t an accident or reflection on their ‘toughness’ or ability to ‘perform in a big spot’. It a function of who they are as pitchers trying to operate in in last night’s game conditions.

Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record touched on this point in his most recent column. He reported on Angels manager Scioscia’s reaction to the game conditions.  He writes:

By 8 p.m., as Sabathia threw his first pitch to Figgins, the announced temperature was 45 with a real-feel reading of 41. There wasn’t much rain to deal with, but Sabathia and Lackey both had a secondary challenge , trying to grip the ball that had as much feel as a pool cue. Trying to throw a curveball under those considerations isn’t just a chore, it’s enough to worry any manager trying to get to the World Series.

“The elements are there,” Scioscia was saying before the game. “You’re going to have to just get around them and play as well as you can and hopefully win. There are going to be elements out there that are going to affect some of the things that both teams try to do. It’s definitely going affect both pitchers.

“I think the trick is to go out there and get it done under any conditions. Anyone can play this game [when it’s] 70 degrees and beautiful. When it’s going to be like it is [Friday night], you have to keep your focus … bring your game plan out there and execute it as well as you can.”

The second part is where I disagree with Scioscia. To be sure, both pitchers operated under the same conditions but some are more affected by them. We have seen pitchers like Trevor Hoffman (who features a changeup) dominate in the regular season and get tattooed in the cold of October. Anyone who relies on a feel pitch like a curve ball or change up to get hitters out will struggle to command their out pitches, while a pure power pitcher like CC can get by with dropping his change and challenging hitters with his 4 seam fastball and slider.

All of which leads me to Joe Saunders. I agreed with Mo and Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave at being befuddled by the choice of Saunders to start Game 2 over Scott Kazmir, and the weather conditions only deepen my doubts about the decision. Kazmir is mainly a Fastball-Slider power pitcher like CC Sabathia, who can scrap his change and still get by like CC did last night. Saunders is a pitcher who throws a 2 seam fastball and relies heavily on his change up to get hitters out, both of which can be affected adversely by the cold weather. Saunders pitches to contact and tries to coax the hitters into getting themselves out on ground balls. But as fastballs go, the 2 seam fastball is much more of a feel pitch that the 4 seam variety, and if you can’t get it down in the zone hitters typically have a field day with it. Yankee fans have seen that for many years with Chien Ming Wang, who on his best day throws the 2 seamer as hard as anyone in the game. Since Wang throws it harder than Saunders does, that allows him more margin for error. To top it off, Saunders hasn’t pitched in over 2 weeks, which can affect a pitchers feel for his pitches even under perfect conditions, and tonight promises to be anything but.

From the Yankee perspective, AJ Burnett relies on a curveball as well, but he doesn’t control it well even in perfect conditions and often relies on his outstanding 4 seam fastball to get him out of trouble. His curveball is also a usually a power curve, which is less of a feel pitch than the slower curves most pitchers throw. AJ may get himself into trouble tonight with some walks and wild pitches, but doesn’t figure to get hit hard facing the largely right-handed Angels lineup. If you had to bet on who would be more affected by the conditions, the clear choice would be Joe Saunders.

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Predicting free agent contracts, pt. 1

Posted by Chris H. at 9:15 am 31 Responses »
Sep 172009

Jon Heyman, along with an unnamed agent and general manager, offered a few contract predictions regarding the top 24 free agents for 2010. In the following mini-series, I’ve highlighted some of the more interesting names, including players that the Yankees will likely be interested in, and Yankees that will be granted free agency at the season’s end. The series begins with the top free agents available for 2010: 1) Matt Holiday, 2) Jason Bay, and 3) John Lackey.

Here are the contract predictions, via Jon Heyman, scout, and GM, juxtaposed with my own analysis.

1. Matt Holliday, Cardinals OF. St. Louis is going to try to keep Holliday, one of four big summer pickups who helped the Cardinals run away with the NL Central. The Cardinals are going to hope that he loves being in their baseball-crazed city to the point where he would forego bigger dollars elsewhere (Boston and both New York teams are likely interested). With franchise man Albert Pujols‘s contract up in two years and Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter in a year, the Cardinals don’t figure to be the high bidder. The agent said he believes that Holliday and Bay should each get $2 to $3 million a year less than Teixeira. But the GM said, “Teixeira’s a plus defender, a switch-hitter and slightly younger” than Holliday.

Agent: $147 million, 7 years.

GM: $80 million, 5 years.

Me: $120 million, 7 years.

Holliday is the crown jewel of the upcoming free agent class. Although he had a rough start to his season in the AL, he rebounded while with the A’s and ultimately hit .286/.378/.454 over 93 games. With the Cardinals, he’s sprinting towards the finish-line, as he has hit .363/.415/.659 since his NL return (he has 12 homers with them, too, 1 more then he had with the A’s while playing nearly 50 more games with Oakland). Holliday can hit, he can field, and he has surprising speed (14 SB on the year).

The Yankees will certainly look at him as a left field option in 2010, although with Hal Steinbrenner at the ship’s helm, I wonder if they would be willing to commit the years or dollars predicted by Heyman or the agent. I could see them paying $17 per over 6 years, but 7 might be a deal breaker. Conversely, I think the GM is undervaluing Holliday. If he were available at that price ($16 per over 5), then the Yankees would most definitely ink him to a deal.

2. Jason Bay, Red Sox OF. The Red Sox tried earlier, and Bay has said he loves playing in Boston, a stark change from Pittsburgh.

Agent: $147 million, 7 years.

GM: $60 million, 4 years.

Me: $80 million, 5 years.

I think Jason Bay is being tremendously overrated by the agent. While his offense is a plus, he’ll be 31 at the end of this season, whereas Matt Holliday will be 29 (no one is going to give him 7 years). I think the GM and Heyman have better predictions given Bay’s streaky offensive year. Bay has also been awful, defensively—a trend which began in 2007, after some leg problems—which significantly undermines his offensive value. I think the Yankees may look at him as a secondary option if they do decide to chase Matt Holliday, however, I don’t think they’ll pay top dollar for his poor defense. Heyman probably has the best prediction at $16 million per (he’ll be overpaid if he doesn’t figure out his fielding problems).

3. John Lackey, Angels pitcher. The Angels tried last winter at close to $60 million over four years, but Lackey said he signed a team-friendly deal last time and won’t do it again.

Agent: $75 million, 5 years.

GM: $60 million, 4 years.

Me: $85 million, 5 years.

Holliday, Bay and Lackey will be the biggest names available and, with the Yankees, they’re always in on the bigger names, so I had to discuss Lackey. Now, I don’t see the Yankees going after him—not after they gave a lot of money to CC Sabathia (deserving) and A.J. Burnett (undeserving). Still, Lackey is one of the better pitchers in baseball—he’s totally underrated—and could always become a legitimate option if Andy Pettitte chooses to retire (unlikely) or if the Yankees plan on starting the season with Joba or Hughes in the minors, so that they may continue to build up their innings, etc. (also unlikely). Also, if the Yankees choose to bring back Johnny Damon for left field and opt for the rotating DH idea, they could have money to burn on pitching.

Lackey should command the same $82.5 million that the Yankees gave to Burnett, which is a lot of money, obviously. Frankly, Lackey is a better pitcher than A.J. is, too, and will likely get a few more dollars because of it (Heyman’s $85 million prediction sounds about right). I do think that he’ll wind up on the Red Sox, though, which means you’ll inevitably read a number of reports about Yankee interest over the winter to drive up his price (reports concocted by Lackey’s agent and the Yankees).

These three players—Holliday, Bay and Lackey—stand as the cream of the 2010 free agent crop. You’ll probably hear that the Yankees are interested in all three during the course of the offseason, although one, in particular, seems like a really good fit (i.e., Matt Holliday) given the team’s needs and goals. Tomorrow, I’ll have more on some of the other free agents discussed in Heyman’s piece that could potentially play a part in the Yankees’ 2010 plans. So, stay tuned…

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