The headline says it all. On the heels of Twins closer Joe Nathan announcing he’s going to need Tommy John surgery, the Twins and Joe Mauer have agreed to a 8 year deal worth 184 mil. Here’s the story via MLBTR:

4:47pm: The Twins have reached agreement with Joe Mauer on an eight-year, $184MM extension.  The agreement was first reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter) while the Twins disclosed the contract’s terms – including its full no-trade clause – via press release.  The contract will cover the soon-to-be 27-year-old from 2011 through the 2018 campaign.

Rosenthal also tweets that the deal, which averages out to $23MM per year, is the fourth largest in MLB history.  The pact is topped only by Alex Rodriguez’s $275MM contract with the Yankees, Rodriguez’s $252MM contract with Texas, and Derek Jeter’s $189MM deal.

Yankee fans who were planning on acquiring him to replace Jorge Posada will have to look elsewhere.

The last of our guest posts was done by (sic). Some of you might recognize him from RAB as “the artist formerly known as (sic)” or from twitter as @tafkasic, and you can read more of his work at thebatshatters.blogspot.com. He took a look at the 2011 free agent market and the Yankees’ place within it. It is an entertaining read that I think you will enjoy.

The 2010-2011 offseason could be one of the most exciting Hot Stove periods in recent memory for Yankees fans. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will both become free agents, and the contracts of Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez will both expire. Additionally, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Manny Ramirez, Ted Lilly and Brandon Webb will all become free agents. Will CC and Cliff Lee stand side-by-side in pinstripes as the new New York Knick LeBron James throws out the first pitch of the 2011 season, causing the entire city of Cleveland to light itself on fire? Will they go for shorter contracts on pitchers, and pursue speedster Carl Crawford? Will they package IPK and Melky for Johan Santana? Wait…what?

There are a lot of moving parts, so the best way to attack this is to determine how much cash the Yankees will have to spend, try to hazard a guess at how much Lee and Crawford will earn on the open market, and see if there are any scenarios in which one, or both, fit into the Yankees 2011 payroll.

For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to be making several assumptions. First, I’m assuming that the Yankees resign Jeter for something close to $100M over 5 years. I’m also assuming the Rivera is resigned for $30M over 2 years. Finally, I’m assuming that the 2011 payroll will be in the $200-210M range. The first two are huge assumptions, obviously, but I can’t see those two leaving. The money may be different, but hopefully won’t be too much in excess of what I’m envisioning.

2011 Salary Commitments
Thanks to the invaluable tool at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we see that New York already has $144M committed to the 2011 payroll. When you add my proposed $20M to Jeter and $15M to Rivera, and the payroll is already at $179M. From there, you have to factor in raises for Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes, who will become eligible for arbitration for the first time. Using Liriano as a comparison, it won’t be unexpected to see them both pull in $1.5M apiece. This bumps the payroll up to $182M, and I’m going to round it up to $183M to cover raises for Boone Logan, if he’s still around, and for the pre-arb guys like DRob, Aceves and others.

With a budget of $183M, the Yankees will have, at the most, $17-27M to spend.

2011 Free Agents
The premier OF free agent in 2011 will be Carl Crawford. Crawford will be 28 years old at the time of his next deal, and is the owner of a career tripleslash of .295/.335.437, an OPS of .772. This line is a bit misleading, because its weighed down by his first two seasons as a 20 and 21 year old when he posted a line of .274/.304/.364. If you remove that, he’s good for a .300/.342/.456 line. Crawford has averaged 50 steals per year over 7 full seasons and has posted phenomenal defensive numbers over the course of his career in LF.

I can’t envision Crawford earning as much as Holliday, who scored a $120M/7 year deal from the Cardinals. A better comparison might be Jason Bay, even though Crawford and Bay are as different as they come in LF. Bay received a 4 year deal worth $66M, with a $17M vesting option for the 5th year from the Mets, a total value of 83M over 5 years. Still, I expect Crawford’s lack of power to keep the value of his deal low, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find a new home for a contract of 5 years and 65M, an AAV of 13M. His age, his defense, and his speed will work in his favor, but his lack of power ought to prevent him from earning an eight-digit deal.

Cliff Lee is the biggest starting pitcher to hit the market in 2011. He’s the owner of a career ERA+ of 109, but has seemingly put it all together to become one of the best pitchers in the game. In his last two years, he’s posted a 2.89 ERA over 455 IP, striking out 6.9 batters per nine and walking only 1.5 per nine. His K/BB ratio over that period is one of the best, 4.56. That’s superb. The risk with Lee is his somewhat low K/9, and his age. As a 31 year old free agent, it’s hard to see Lee getting more than five or six years guaranteed, despite the Phillies’ claims that he is looking for “Sabathia-type” money. Instead, I look for Lee to receive a six year deal worth $100M, an AAV of $16.67M. It’s expensive, but it is becoming increasingly rare to see bona fide aces hit the open market in free agency, and Lee’s price may go up even further if the Red Sox sign Josh Beckett to an extension.

Roster Analysis
The most obvious holes in the 2011 roster are starting pitching and LF. Here’s where it gets dicey (as if it weren’t already confusing):

Scenario 1: Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain have successful, injury-free 2010 campaigns, and are considered locks for the 2011 rotation.
In this scenario, the Yankees can simply resign Pettitte to another one-year deal worth around $11M. This would bump payroll to around $194M, and leave around $6-14M to spend elsewhere. With a full rotation, the Yankees could become players for Crawford. Signing him to a $13M AAV deal would max out the payroll for 2011.

Scenario 2: Either Hughes or Joba gets injured or very ineffective in 2010, and is slotted for a spot in the bullpen in 2011.
Here, the Yankees will only have 3 starters under contract for 2011. If they bring back Pettitte for around $11M, they’ll have $6-14M to spend elsewhere, and will need a fifth starter. The Yankees could attempt to pursue Lee, creating a formidable rotation of Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Pettitte-Joba/Hughes. This would leave them unable to sign Crawford and completely maxed out on budget.

Scenario 3: The Andy Pettitte Era ends
If Pettitte decides to retire, or the Yankees decide to go in a different direction, then any number of things could happen. With a healthy Joba and Hughes in the rotation, the Yankees could bring in Lee for $16.67M per and sit right at the $200M threshold. This would give them a rotation of Sabathia-Lee-Burnett-Chamberlain-Hughes, and leave them with up to $10M to spend elsewhere.

Scenario 4: The Andy Pettitte Era ends and only Joba or Hughes is in the bullpen
If one of Chamberlain or Hughes is in the bullpen, or injured, then the Yankees would still need a fifth starter in addition to Sabathia, Lee, Burnett and Hughes/Joba. Here, we might see the Yankees use Zach McAllister in the 5 spot, or attempt to bring back Vazquez for $10M per year. Other alternatives include Lilly or Webb.

Scenario 5: The Twins fail to resign Joe Mauer
Twins fans, avert your eyes! If Mauer hits the market, all bets are off with Lee and Crawford. The Yankees could offer Mauer a deal of $180M over 8 years, an AAV of $22.5M. Assuming they were able to outbid the Red Sox and ink him to a deal like this, no sure thing, they would see their budget rise to around $205-207M. Accordingly, they would need Joba and Hughes to man the 3 and 4 spots in the rotation, and then attempt to get a 5th starter for cheap. Signing Mauer would also mean the end of the Jesus Montero experiment at catcher, and so the Yankees could shift him to LF and have him split time with Posada at DH. Scenarios like this are why non-Yankee fans hate us so very, very much.

Summary
Personally, I think Scenario 5 is very unlikely. I think the Twins will pony up the dough they’re about to get from their new stadium and sign him to an extension, allowing Twins fans everywhere to come back in off the ledge. That said, I can’t see the Yankees landing both Crawford and Lee. Their payroll is already precipitously high, and management shows no inclination to blow past the $210M ceiling. Of the four remaining scenarios outlined above, I’m fairly excited about #3, even though it involves saying farewell to Andy Pettitte. Signing Lee would provide them with a second ace, and a good hedge against the risk of Sabathia leaving after 2011. The best thing that can happen to the Yankees in the meantime is Joba and Hughes putting together successful 2010 campaigns, which will give the Yankees more flexibility and more options going into the 2010-2011 Hot Stove.

Here are a few quick items on the evening:

• The guys over at Pinstripe Alley have a nice Q&A out with Fanhouse’s own, Frankie Piliere.
• Brian Cashman on Hideki Matsui: “Hideki Matsui will be one of the best deals I ever made.”
• Joe at River Ave Blues takes a look at whether or not Johnny Damon could still return to NY.
• Earlier today, we heard that Joe Mauer had reached a preliminary extension with the Twins.
• However, to the dismay of Minnesota, that report has since been shot down by Buster Olney.
• Nick Swisher will be appearing as himself tonight on the sitcom “How I Met Your Mother.”

The show is on at 8 pm on CBS, so be sure to check that out.

Photo by Eric McCandless/FOX

From Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports:

Two winters ago, Mark Teixeira, the top free agent on the market, listened to Baltimore’s offer and scoffed at it. He ended up signing with the New York Yankees for $180 million, and Baltimore, as usual, played second fiddle..

“We were legit on Teixeira,” MacPhail said. “If you superimposed him on our lineup now, 28, with great work habits, played a position where you could expect him to perform over a long-term deal, local kid. He really would be somebody you could go out for. But if you’re wrong …”

Now, this post is not about the blossoming Orioles, nor is it about Mark Teixeira’s perfectly understandable decision to join the Yankees on an 8-year contract. Instead, Andy MacPhail’s comment, that Teixeira “played a position where you could expect him to perform over a long-term deal,” is what interests me the most for this particular post.

This year, the Yankees were unwilling to spend big dollars on arguably the best and most complete corner outfielder in baseball, Matt Holliday. The Yankees’ decision, it seems, was driven by the fact that Holliday was a left fielder and, while he is possibly the best left fielder in the game, there are still a number of players that can man the position at a much lower cost and many of them would do so admirably. However, in addition to that, providing a long-term contract to a left fielder, or to any outfielder, really, can be a dangerous proposition. As we have seen with Hideki Matsui throughout the course of his 4-year deal which ended this year – whether we are discussing his knees or his gruesome wrist injury from 2006 – health concerns can arise and may severely limit an outfielder’s overall value and production. Outfielders are constantly on the move, sprinting relatively long distances in the outfield, diving and making abrupt stops. Therefore, placing a $100 million dollar investment in the outfield can ultimately prove to be a parlous decision, especially when one considers the steady stream of corner OFs available on a year-to-year basis.

This is why – or, I should say, this is partially why – the Yankees chose to sign Mark Teixeira a year ago rather than Matt Holliday now. The Yankees felt a certain level of comfort investing $180 million in Teixeira because he is not a corner outfielder. They know that the wear and tear a player’s body experiences at first base is generally not as damaging as the daily outfield grind. Teixeira, then, can be expected to perform at his position for an 8-year period.

This, though, brings me to another position, one which is even more physically demanding than the role of any outfielder, and that is the catcher’s position. Given the way that Jorge Posada’s two-year tenure has played out since resigning with the Yankees after his stellar 2007 campaign, it is clear that while catcher investments with players worthy of investment can be extremely rewarding, they are are, from a contractual/financial perspective, also extremely dangerous. When one considers MacPhail’s statement about manning a position where a player can be expected to perform over the life of a long-term deal, catchers are understandably absent from that conversation.

For this reason, assuming he doesn’t sign an extension and enters free agency after the 2010 season, I wonder what will happen with Minnesota’s Joe Mauer. While he is certainly deserving of a deal like Teixeira’s (and will probably receive one similar to it), Mauer’s position is both a gift and a curse in that the superior production he provides behind the plate is why he will receive a huge deal, however, the position itself also forces teams to question investing in him on a long-term basis. On top of that, Mauer’s medical history is hardly clean, which adds to the concern of providing him a seven or eight year contract. If he becomes a free agent, the Yankees will definitely go after him – that is a foregone conclusion – though, I wonder if they will be or perhaps should be hesitant to sign the young MVP given the investment’s many inherent red flags (after a few years, Mauer could switch positions in order to preserve his body, although such an idea diminishes his value). After all, such was the case with Holliday. Of course, Mauer is different from Holliday in that his overall production is better (and is more proven in the American League) and such production at catcher – a premium, up-the-middle position – is essentially impossible to find elsewhere.

In the end, it may all come down to risk versus reward. Regardless of what I have written here pertaining to potentially perilous positional investments, the rewards Joe Mauer can provide (offensively, defensively, personality-wise) are likely too great to pass up. With the Yankees’ catcher contract track record in mind – they gave Posada a 4-year deal worth $52.4 million when he was 36-years old – and if given an opportunity to pursue him as a free agent, I believe the Yankees would eventually deem the risk and uncertainty of a long-term deal for a 28-year old catcher of Mauer’s abilities as both secondary and worthwhile given the possible benefits involved. He may not play a position where “you could expect him to perform over a long-term deal,” however, that is ultimately why he is so valuable, right?

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

With the offseason slowly drawing to a close, it looks like the Yankees were in fact serious about maintaining a modicum of fiscal responsibility. However, some have suggested that Brian Chasman is just saving his bullets for next offseason, when there is a class of free agents that Cashman has previously professed admiration for. Dayn Perry runs through the big names, and I would like to highlight the players I think the Yankees would have interest in:

1. Joe Mauer, C
Opening Day 2011 Age: 28

2. Cliff Lee, LHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 32

3. Brandon Webb, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 32

4. Derek Jeter, SS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 37

These four players make up the top tier of talent, and at least one of them (Jeter) is almost certain to be in pinstripes in 2011. I strongly believe Mauer will sign in Minnesota, as their new ballpark and Mauer’s hometown roots makes this a perfect marriage. Regarding Webb, his recent shoulder injuries make him a significant risk. Although he will likely be cheaper than Lee and his groundball ways make him a solid fit for Yankee Stadium, I would stay away from him. Lee is the better option, and I think that the Yankees will be all-in on Cliff to take the rotation spot vacated by either Andy Pettitte or Javy Vazquez. I could see the Yankees offering Lee 5 years at 19 million per year. Jeter will likely get a similar salary for a reduced number of years. 4 years and 75-80 million will get it done.

5. Carl Crawford, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 29

6. Jayson Werth, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 32

8. Josh Beckett, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31

Beckett is good, but let’s be objective: He’s not an ace on most staffs. Beckett’s career ERA of 3.79 is solid enough, but just three times in his career has he managed at least 200 innings in a season. It’s also worth noting that since Beckett arrived in Boston and supposedly achieved “ace-dom,” his ERA is 4.05. That’s a tick or two better than the league average, but the numbers simply don’t rise to the level of Beckett’s reputation. That said, if you’re looking for a No. 2 man, then Beckett is a reasonable choice. Just be sure pay him like a No. 2 man. Lee and a healthy Webb are both significantly better.

10. Adam Dunn, OF/DH
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31

This next tier includes a number of players who might be good fits in NY but have certain flaws that make their acquisition entirely dependent on the market. Dunn would be a bargain on a deal similar to the one he signed with Washington, as he would fit perfectly in Yankees Stadium and 2 years, 20 million would likely be less than his actual value. Similarly, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are both versatile players who add a lot both offensively and defensively. However, I would not touch either player if they required a deal more than 4 years, and even then the AAV should not exceed 14M a year. I hate Beckett, and added Perry’s note on him because it illustrates my contention that Josh is slightly overrated. That said, if the market for him bottoms out due to injury concerns and outsized demands, expect Brian Cashman to kick the tires on him.

11. Mariano Rivera

12. Manny Ramirez

13. Huston Street

15. Javier Vazquez

16. Rafael Soriano

If Javy Vazquez has a very strong year, I could see the Yankees attempting to sign the workhorse to a long term deal. However, if he is just solid, he will likely get a 3 year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million, a price the Yankees should shy away from. I could see the Yankees entering the 2011 season with Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Chamberlain, and either Andy Pettitte or a free agent like Cliff Lee in the rotation. Regarding the bullpen, if Mariano continues to act like a vampire, the Yankees will have to shell out some dough to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal, depending on his preference. No matter what happens with Mo, I could see the Yankees being in the market for a top reliever, so as to allow both Joba and Hughes to start. If so, Street and Soriano would both be good fits. Finally, I have long advocated bringing in Manny, but unless he is asking for a 1 year deal for 10 million or less, I cannot see Cash biting.

Photo Credit: ESPN.com

In his most recent piece, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune discusses Joe Mauer, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez, dubbing them the Four Horsemen of baseball. While Rogers’ analogy is somewhat strange, he then goes on to turn a few more heads once he begins discussing the Yankees’ future in relation to the aforementioned quadruplet. According to Rogers, “[e]xecutives with other clubs” actually believe that the Yankees (the Red Sox are also named, as well) are reluctant to spend this winter “because they want as much flexibility as possible to land one of baseball’s four horsemen at some point in the next two years,” as all four will be free agents by then — Mauer after 2010, Pujols, Fielder, Gonzalez after 2011 — unless extension agreements are reached with their respective teams.

Wait… what? Though it is certainly feasible for the Yankees to tighten their purse strings this offseason in the hopes that Joe Mauer will be available on the open market after the upcoming season, how exactly do Pujols, Fielder, and Gonzalez — three first basemen — fit into the Yankees’ plans with some guy named Mark Teixeira inked through 2016? Well, Rogers adds that the Yankees “are keeping the DH spot clear, for the time being, as a potential way to accommodate Pujols, Fielder or even Gonzalez playing alongside Mark Teixeira.” Wait… what (again)? According to Rogers, this winter, the Yankees are “keeping the DH spot clear” — and by clear, I guess Rogers is referring to the team’s short-term deal with Nick Johnson — so as to sign either Pujols, Fielder, or Gonzalez sometime toward the end of 2011 (or in early 2012). Is that right? This is heavy stuff, however, plausibility is a key issue here. For instance, will the Yankees actually offer a $100 million contract to a designated hitter? Further, would Pujols, Fielder, or Gonzalez even want to be designated hitters for the Yankees? There are many important factors to consider, thus, thinking that the organization is “keeping the DH spot clear” for either of the three players, years in advance, seems far fetched.

In reality, it appears that the Yankees are limiting their spending this winter, not for another winter two years from now, but because, as Brian Cashman recently noted, they find next year’s free agent crop to be a more appealing sort (Joe Mauer — he’s the likeliest horseman to be pursued if available — plus Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee, for example). And, with regards to Rogers’ second claim about “keeping the DH spot clear,” perhaps the Yankees simply see the value of the roster flexibility provided by that role. Or, maybe they would rather funnel their rich resources into elite starting pitchers or multitalented position players that can offer both offensive and defensive contributions, instead of a DH who solely offers the former. The DH spot might also be kept clear with a short-term contract for Nick Johnson so as to prepare for the coming of Jesus Montero (assuming he outgrows catcher), the organization’s offensive wunderkind.

Basically, in sum, there are several reasonable reasons which explain why, exactly, the Yankees are currently curbing their spending and “keeping the DH spot clear.” However, awaiting the arrival of a pinstriped Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, or Adrian Gonzalez, years in advance, does not seem like one of those reasons (not at this point in time).

Photo by Getty Images

This off season, we’ve heard the oft-repeated line that ‘next year’s FA class is better’ and that it makes sense to sit back this season, to have money available for the bumper crop of star players available next year. But is that true? Are the players who will become available good fits for the Yanks and/or are they the types of players they’re likely to sign?

MLBTR produces an advanced Free Agent list every year, and has one for the class of 2011. Right off the bat, I’m not going to consider anyone who has a team option of any kind. If the Cards don’t exercise Albert Pujols for 16 mil with a 5 mil buyout, he must be on crutches and of no use to any team.  However, Player options are fair game. If the economy improves at all (which it should) most of those are likely to be exercised.  Let’s also dispose of three Yankees up front. Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte and Mariano Rivera will all be Yankees as long as they are able to play Baseball, so while their contracts may be expiring, they’re not typical free agents. According to Cots, the 2011 payroll starts out at 118 mil, so there figures to be plenty of room to bring back Jeter and Mo and still be active in the FA market. The Yanks figure to have a need in the Outfield, a starting pitcher, and perhaps a Lefty reliever. Catcher is an area to look at as well, Jorge Posada will be 39 heading into 2011 and is a major candidate to regress offensively this coming season, which will make his subpar defense even harder to stomach. On to the list:

Catchers
Henry Blanco (39)
John Buck (30)
Ramon Castro (35)
Raul Chavez (38)
Ramon Hernandez (35) – option vests with 120 games played
Gerald Laird (31)
Jason LaRue (37)
Victor Martinez (32)
Joe Mauer (28)
Chad Moeller (36)
A.J. Pierzynski (34)
David Ross (34)
Jason Varitek (39)
Gregg Zaun (40) – $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyout

Left fielders
Eric Byrnes (35)
Carl Crawford (29)
David DeJesus (31) – $6MM club option with a $500K buyout
Willie Harris (33)
Jason Kubel (29) – $5.25MM club option with a $350K buyout
Jason Michaels (35)
Manny Ramirez (39)

Center fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33)
Coco Crisp (31) – $5.75MM option with a $575K buyout
Jody Gerut (33)
Willie Harris (33)
Andruw Jones (34)
Mark Kotsay (35)
Jason Michaels (35)
Corey Patterson (31)
Willy Taveras (29)

Right fielders
Willie Bloomquist (33)
Jose Guillen (35)
Brad Hawpe (32) – $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Gabe Kapler (35)
Magglio Ordonez (37) – $15MM club option vests with 135 starts or 540 plate appearances in 2010
Jayson Werth (32)

Starting pitchers
Bronson Arroyo (34) – $11MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Josh Beckett (31)
Joe Blanton (30)
Jeremy Bonderman (28)
Dave Bush (31)
Matt Cain (26) – $6.25MM vesting option
Kevin Correia (30)
Jorge De La Rosa (30)
Justin Duchscherer (33)
Jeff Francis (29) – $7MM club option
Freddy Garcia (35)
Chad Gaudin (28)
Rich Harden (29) – $11MM mutual option with $1MM buyout
Aaron Harang (33) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Hiroki Kuroda (36)
Cliff Lee (32)
Ted Lilly (35)
Rodrigo Lopez (35)
Kevin Millwood (36)
Sergio Mitre (30)
Brian Moehler (39)
Jamie Moyer (48)
Carl Pavano (35)
Brad Penny (33)
Andy Pettitte (39)
Nate Robertson (33)
Jeff Suppan (36) – $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Koji Uehara (36)
Javier Vazquez (34)
Brandon Webb (32)
Jake Westbrook (33)
Dontrelle Willis (29)
Chris Young (32) – $8.5MM club option

Left-handed relievers
Jeremy Affeldt (32)
Bruce Chen (34)
Randy Choate (35)
Pedro Feliciano (34)
Trever Miller (38) – $2MM option vests with 45 games in 2010
Darren Oliver (40) – vesting option
Dennys Reyes (34)
Arthur Rhodes (41)
J.C. Romero (35) – $4.5MM club option with a $250K buyout
Bobby Seay (33)
Matt Thornton (34) - $3MM club option with a $250K buyout

A few quick observations. It’s amazing how ancient that Lefty Reliever list is, but we all know the old line about Lefties being able to find jobs in Baseball. Of that list, Jeremy Affeldt is one pitcher I could see the Yanks targeting, with Matt Thorton and Pedro Fleiciano as possibilities as well.  Of course, Type A status and length of deal will be huge factors when dealing with Relievers of any kind. But given Damaso Marte’s inconsistency in pinstripes, Jeremy Bleich’s sub-par 2009 campaign and how far away Manny Banuelos and Wilkins De La Rosa are from MLB action, you can’t rule out a FA signing.

In the starting pitcher category, Cliff Lee stands out on that list as a perfect fit. AL pitcher with good peripherals who’s had post season success, the only thing you’d be worried about is length of deal at age 32. I don’t see the Yanks targeting Josh Beckett, even as a Plan B. They’re keenly aware of how much trouble the Red Sox have had keeping him on the field throughout his career, and at age 31 injuries begin to pile up, especially for a two-pitch power pitcher like him. If Josh couldn’t stay healthy in his 20s, you’d be foolish to think he’ll get better in his 30s. I think the Yanks will have two openings to fill, with Javy Vasquez in his final year and Andy Pettitte at age 39, though I wouldn’t rule out signing (the much traveled) Vasquez to an extension, assuming he has a good 2010 season in the Bronx. We all love Andy, but he barely got through this past season and was admittedly gassed in October. Another year of wear and tear on that arm at his age could be the tipping point past the point of effectiveness. This is why it’s a make or break year for BOTH Joba and Hughes. Rotation spots will be waiting for both of them in 2011 if they prove they can handle it this year, although the same could be said for the Closer’s role as Mariano moves well past his 41st birthday. Brandon Webb is very much a dark horse candidate, he has to prove he’s healthy before the Yanks would spend a dime on him, and shoulder injuries often signal the end for many pitchers.

In the outfield, I don’t see the Yanks targeting a 30 year old Carl Crawford. So much of his game is tied up in his speed, which figures to decline in his 30s. Also, I have long maintained that Brian Cashman will prefer to keep LF open as a landing spot for Derek Jeter and/or Alex Rodriguez. Jayson Werth makes more sense to me. A 5-win player who provides excellent power and defense,  you can simply move Nick Swisher to LF and play Werth in Right. Swisher is signed through 2011, so you field the best OF we’ve had in years with Werth-Grandy-Swisher for one season and the LF landing spot is open for your aging stars afterward.

Finally, we come to Catcher. Joe Mauer is by far and away the star of the class, with Victor Martinez as another possibility. But I think the Twins will retain Mauer. He’s the face of the franchise, and with the Twins entering a new ballpark in 2010 they should have the revenue to keep him. They’ve already been discussing an extension, and the two sides don’t seem so far apart that they wont reach a deal eventually. I’ve always viewed V-Mart as more of a 1B than Catcher, so I suspect the Yanks will look to fill this area of need internally. Expect Jesus Montero to get some playing time in the Bronx in 2010, as the Yanks assess which direction they want to go.

From the BBWAA:

Joe Mauer, who won an unprecedented third batting championship for a catcher and helped propel the Minnesota Twins to the American League Central title, was elected the AL Most Valuable Player for 2009 in balloting by the BBWAA.

Mauer, the first catcher to lead his league in batting average (.365), on-base percentage (.444) and slugging (.587) in the same season, was listed first on all but one of the 28 ballots cast by two writers in each league city. He was second on that other ballot to score a total of 387 points, based on a tabulation system rewarding 14 points for first place, nine for second, eight for third on down to one for 10th.

The top 10: Mauer, Tex, Jeter, Cabrera, Morales, Youkilis, Bay, Zobrist, Ichiro, A-Rod. I have a whole load of observations, so buckle in:

• Just so you know where I am coming from, this was my final ballot: Mauer, Jeter, Greinke, Zobrist, Youkilis, Teixeira, Longoria, Hernandez, Cabrera, Rodriguez. Next 5: Figgins, Halladay, Verlander, Crawford, Ichiro.
• Mauer deserved the award, and it should have been unanimous. Miguel Cabrera getting a first place vote is positively ridiculous, when it could be reasonably argued that he was not the most valuable player on his own team.
• Let’s see if I get the logic here. The MVP is about value to your team, and therefore stats are not the be all end all, and winners should be rewarded. Then why not vote for pitchers? They help teams win, they provide “value” in that sense as well. If it is an award for hitters, then it should be about the numbers.
• Jeter should have finished 2nd. He was 2.3 wins more valuable than Tex, a huge spread. The voters clearly do not understand positional adjustments, nor can they see past home runs or RBI’s as evaluation tools. Some have suggested that the voters are getting smarter, but I am not so sure. I think we are just seeing the effects of the buzz changing. Writers vote based on buzz, and the sabermetric community has loudly helped shaped the buzz this season. However, that buzz generally deals with who finishes first, so we see Mauer rightfully win the award while Jeter gets screwed out of 2nd place.
• How can a pitcher who got 0 Cy Young votes (Rivera) finish ahead of the Cy Young winner?
• Ben Zobrist was way too low. His old school numbers are great, and the saber stats show him to be a top 5 candidate. He did not receive a single top 5 vote.
• Kendry Morales and Jayson Bay are too high. Bay was good for 3 months, as was Morales. 
• A-Rod deserved his 10th place finish, but did not deserve the 3rd place vote he got. He was the 3rd most valuable player on his own team.
• I love Robbie Cano, but he should not have gotten votes. 
• Evan Longoria barely got any recognition for his excellent season.
• Overall, Too high: Tex, Cabrera, Morales, Bay, Ichiro. Too low: Jeter, Greinke, Zobrist, Longoria, Felix, Verlander, Halladay

From Charley Walters (TwinCities):

Joe Mauer, despite catching regularly for the Minnesota Twins and missing the first 22 games with a sore back, still has 179 hits this season — without steroids. That’s just two fewer hits than Barry Bonds had in one season during his 22-year major league career. The most hits Bonds had in one season was 181 in 1993 for the San Francisco Giants.

Mauer is not only leading the American League in batting average (.371), but in on-base percentage (.442) and slugging percentage (.606).

Mauer, 26, can become a free agent after the 2010 season. When contract talks get serious after this season, the Twins are expected to try to sign Mauer for about $120 million over seven years.

The New York Yankees, however, with catcher Jorge Posada at 38 years old, are expected to offer more money and possibly more years.

If the Twins offer Mauer 7 years at $120 million, they’ll be undervaluing him. According to FanGraphs, Mauer has been worth an eye-popping $35.6 million this year (7.9 WAR). While he won’t get that annually, he could very well earn over $20 million per year. However, being a catcher both hurts and helps Mauer’s cause in that his offense is above and beyond the production of the average catcher, yet catcher’s are injury risks in their own right (and Mauer has somewhat of a checkered injury history). Any team willing to commit that much money to the catcher’s position, along with 7 or more years, are taking on a significant investment and one with great risk. This might help to keep Mauer’s payday lower than what it should be (it’ll still be a lot, of course).

If Mauer doesn’t provide Minnesota with a discount, rejects their offer, and hits free agency, will the Yankees be willing to offer him a 7-8 year deal worth $160-170 million (we’re talking Teixeira money)? Mauer will only be 28 at the start of the 2011 season, therefore, you’d be getting him for at least 3 of his best years (assuming he stays healthy). There are some factors that complicate matters, though, if the Yankees do intend on adding Mauer to their lineup.

First, the team is in need of a left fielder for next season. If they were to sign Matt Holliday or Jason Bay (Holliday is the best option), then they would likely bow out of the Mauer sweepstakes in 2010 for financial reasons, as either player would require a fairly lucrative long-term deal (that’s on top of the contracts that they’re already paying for). If they don’t sign either player and try Johnny Damon on a one-year deal, then I would expect them to be serious suitors for Mauer once he hits free agency. What the Yankees do this offseason, spending-wise, could shed light on whether or not they’ll pursue Mauer. However, in terms of a Mauer signing, left field is not the only issue at play.

The second element is super prospect Jesus Montero. If the Yankees believe Montero can remain a catcher—it’s very unlikely, but they’ll give him every chance to succeed there—then they could stay out of the Mauer market. It is up to Montero though, to improve at his position, defensively. If they decide that he does not have a real future there, then the Yankees could move him to another position. However, given his physical limitations, primarily his lack of foot speed, the only other options for Montero are DH and first base. While first base isn’t a possibility (Teixeira), the Yankees could try Montero as their regular DH in 2011. That would then open up the door for Mauer to become the team’s catcher.

Of course, we must not forget about Jorge Posada. Posada is signed through 2011, though I doubt that would stop the Yankee from acquiring Mauer. Posada could be shifted to the DH role for the final year of his contract. Yet, as I stated a moment ago, Jesus Montero’s role with the club could effect things. Montero may be ready for 2011, therefore, having Jorge as your DH would hinder a possible promotion for the top prospect. Still, Montero will only be 21 through the ‘11 season, meaning that the Yankees could simply keep him in Triple-A for more experience (it would also help them in that it will prevent Montero’s free agency clock from being started). That would allow them to bring in Mauer and keep what is hopefully a productive Jorge Posada in their lineup, as well. If Posada wants to keep playing after his contract has expired, perhaps he could return as the DH (this will hinge on his ability to play, price, overall effectiveness, Montero’s readiness, etc.).

In sum, the Yankees could very well pursue Mauer for 2011, as Posada’s career will be ending at that point in time. With Jesus Montero in the catcher pipeline, the Yankees could also choose not to bring Mauer in, in the hopes that Montero will become Manny Ramirez behind the plate. However, Montero—with his size and lack of defensive tools—could ultimately outgrow the position, which would then create an external need for a successor to Jorge Posada. The Yankees could then opt for Mauer, assuming that they have the necessary funds. But, if the team signs one of Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, then their pursuit could be very limited. Regardless of whether or not the Yankees intend on actually signing Mauer, you can be assured that they’ll try to remain active in his market in order to drive the price up. The Red Sox will also be in search of a new catcher and Mauer will be the first, and possibly the only, name on their shopping list.

From the usually thoughtful Joel Sherman:

There has been a lot of internet chatter recently about the identity of the AL MVP, mainly centering around the candidacies of Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. There is still more than six weeks to go, so while it all makes for interesting debate, there is still a lot of games left to swing the vote.

But this, to me, continues to be about the debate between those who believe everything can be defined by statistics vs. those who believe in their eyes (usually scouts, but in this case mainly newspaper writers who are with one team daily). I want to believe that I have a foot in both worlds. I like that the stats give me a guidepost, but I still believe there are intangibles in the game, and also that the stats can often be too one-dimensional and not provide a full picture.

I strongly disagree with Joel on this one. While the debate is between those two groups, it really has nothing to do with a stats vs. eyes question. We see Teixeira every day, but only see Mauer 7 times a season, so our eyes are bound to be skewed towards the hometown player. However, anyone who watched those games against the Twins saw how good Mauer is. Looking at their numbers and even watching them on the field, I am not sure an argument can be made for Tex, IF the games were played in a vacuum, without context. Mauer is having one of the best seasons ever by a catcher, possibly the best. Teixeira is having a nice season for a first baseman, but his numbers are not much better than those of Kevin Youkilis, Justin Mourneau, and Miguel Cabrera.

What is the debate? The game is not played in a vacuum. Teixeira is playing well for a great team and helping them win important games. Mauer is having an amazing season for a mediocre team, one that will likely finish out of the money. While the instructions on the MVP ballot specifically state that the MVP need not be from a contender, many voters feel that it should be limited to those players. Those in the stathead community disagree, and feel that the writers should recognize a historic season by Mauer with an award that he probably could have won at least once before.

How do you feel about it? Can an MVP come from a .500 or below team?