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On Trading for Soria and Desperation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 6 Responses »
Jan 102011

Bill Madden, of whom I’m no great fan (so let that be a disclaimer) wrote a piece recently about the Yankees and their apparent need to trade for Joakim Soria. On the surface level, I don’t entirely disagree with the idea. Adding Soria would make sense since he’s one of the top relief arms in all of baseball and because he’s relatively cheap. I disagree with what Madden thinks the Yankees should give up and why they should do it.

I’m not going to go paragraph by paragraph and do a full FJM on this bad boy because it doesn’t deserve that, and that tune’s more than a little bit played out. I may cut and paste certain quotes to highlight, but mostly I’ll be commenting on the tone of the piece and Madden’s justifications.

Starting with the tone, it doesn’t come off as all that desperate, but the title of the piece does. While the Yankees’ offseason has certainly not gone entirely as planned, that’s mostly due to losing out on Cliff Lee. Granted, that’s a very big thing on which to miss out, but they’ve still re-signed Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera while bringing in a lefty reliever–a stated goal–and adding some depth by signing Russell Martin. If Andy Pettitte retires, things may look a little more grim, but that hasn’t happened yet so I’m not going to freak out. The team as of right now has some flaws but it still a generally well constructed team with a top-flight lineup and a solid bullpen.

A lot of people in the media and the various comments sections across the Yankee blogosphere keep saying that the Yankees are desperate because they keep missing out on big pieces, like signing Lee or trading for Zack Greinke. The patience the Yankees have shown in this offseason, not jumping on a player simply for the sake of jumping on a player demonstrates a dearth of desperation. What the Yankees are doing now is exactly what they should be doing: Waiting for the right move to come along. Making a trade or making a signing simply for the sake of doing so is a way to waste money in the present and in the future.

Getting back to the Soria-non-trade and Madden’s actual words:

His first paragraph ends with a statement we’ve heard all winter: Kerry Wood saved the Yankees’ season. Kerry Wood threw 26 innings with the New York Yankees. They were a solid 26 innings, but they represented 1.8% of the total innings thrown by Yankee pitchers in 2010. When you pitch just 1.8% of a team’s total innings, you are not a savior. If you want a season savior, go look at CC Sabathia with the Brewers in 2008. Never have 20something innings been made such a big deal by the New York media or the fans (well, except one 20something inning stretch that I’d rather not discuss anymore).

The next bothersome statement is that Madden calls Kansas City GM Dayton Moore’s refusal to trade Soria “shortsighted.” I’ll agree with that–it’s silly for the Royals, a team that is unlikely to contend this year, to tie up resources in a great closer. He’ll have a minimal effect on such a bad team. However, when Madden suggests that the Yankees should trade Jesus Montero for Joakim Soria, that’s even more shortsighted. Madden displays a complete lack of awake of awareness here. Even though Soria has options through 2014, trading a hitter like Jesus Montero is a complete waste. Madden mentions that the Yankees offered Montero for Soria earlier in the season, but we never got official confirmation of that and the rumor was that they “dangled” Montero; that doesn’t mean they offered him.

From the article: “Holding on to [Soria] would seem like a waste, especially since his value couldn’t be higher and the Royals won’t likely be contending for another couple of years. Said one AL exec: ‘It’s a lot easier finding closers than it is power-hitting catchers. Dayton’s got a chance here to fill two huge needs – catcher and shortstop – to complement that bumper crop of talent he’s got coming. Why wouldn’t you do that?’” Well, A.L. scout, you wouldn’t do that because it probably wasn’t offered. If the Yankees did offer Montero for Soria and a deal didn’t go down, both GMs made a mistake: Cashman for offering it in the first place and Moore for not accepting it as soon as the offer was made. (Note: the shortstop discussed is Eduardo Nunez, who is probably unappealing to the Royals for a few reasons: 1) He’s Eduardo Nunez and 2) They just traded for Alcides Escobar; Nunez isn’t a need for the Royals and shouldn’t be a want.)

The assertion that Austin Romine is as close to ML ready as Jesus Montero is at the moment is also off base. In terms of raw OPS, his numbers have dropped steadily each year (.781-.763-.726), though that’s admittedly rather simplistic analysis. However, it’s something of which to take note. We also saw a big second half drop off from Romine in 2010 and his defensive reputation took a bit of a hit as well. Romine also doesn’t have near the offensive potential that Montero does, which gives the latter some more flexibility. Montero may not be able to stick behind the plate in the majors, but his bat will likely allow him to play anywhere, including first base and DH (Jesus Montero will be just 27 when Mark Teixeira’s contract is up). That second half swoon from Romine suggests that the Yankees will likely start Romine at AA Trenton agains this year, especially if Montero is going to start the year with the AAA team in Scranton-Wilkes Barre. And, even if the Yankees did sign Russell Martin, that doesn’t mean they’ve given up on Jesus Montero, especially when Martin’s primary back up going into the season will be Francisco Cervelli. It should signal that they’re willing to be patient with Montero and let him get some development time in Scranton–as well as see what they have in Martin–before bringing him up to the big leagues.

Madden closes the bulk of his article by talking about signing Rafael Soriano for “the sake of the staff” which is a misguided notion I’ve covered before, so I’ll sum up my thoughts in one sentence: A good bullpen does not make up for a lacking starting rotation and the Yankees shouldn’t be interested in giving up a draft pick for a relief pitcher and multi-year deals for relief pitchers are a bad idea and Madden even takes note of the Yankees’ spotty history with multi-year-deal relievers. Okay, that was a run on sentence, but I’m okay with it. Madden also says that the Royals need to “come to their senses” and build for the future and unload Soria. Yeah, sure, I’ll agree. But first, Madden needs to come to his senses and realize that trading one of the best prospects in the minor leagues for a relief pitcher is a near-senseless idea.

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Soria, Dunn, and Lilly! Oh My!

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Jul 272010

Yesterday morning, there was a slew of Yankee trade news involving Joakim Soria, Adam Dunn, and Ted Lilly. Allow me to comment…

1. If it is true that the Yankees dangled Jesus Montero for Soria, then I’m none too happy. Using Montero as trade bait for a guy like Cliff Lee is understandable. Doing so for a reliever, even if they want to make Soria a starter as he was in Mexico, is not something the Yankees should be doing. While Soria is a difference maker out of the bullpen, that’s not worth trading a stud hitting prospect like Montero. That said, I’d still like to see if the Yankees could get a hold of Soria without having to give up Montero or fellow catching prospect Austin Romine. Granted, the chances of that are ridiculously small. If the Yankees and Royals can’t match up in the next day or two, they should just cut the cord.

2. Not surprisingly, the Yankees have found the cost for Adam Dunn “prohibitive.” My dream is slowly, slowly dying. But, at the end of the day, that’s probably a good thing. I’d love Dunn as the Yankees’ DH and he would be a difference maker with the bat, but the Nationals are apparently playing very hard ball with Dunn. I want Dunn, but I don’t want to pay through the nose for a rental.

3. As I thought, the Yankees aren’t in on Oswalt. However, this Ted Lilly rumor just doesn’t want to die. Heyman says the Yankees like Lilly. Well, sure they do. He’s a solid pitcher who’s apparently available, but I don’t think he’s a difference maker like Cliff Lee nor does he have the youth/upside/friendly contract of Dan Haren.

As for the Haren package consisting of Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova with two prospects, I’m totally cool with that. Like Steve wrote yesterday, I don’t think the Diamondbacks did as well as they could have in their trade of Dan Haren and may’ve done better if they did indeed trade with the Yankees. Of course, that depends on who the other two prospects were. I would’ve had little trouble adding Joba Chamberlain to the package, though in that case I would’ve wanted to take out one of Z-Mac or Nova. This may come as a surprise considering I’ve been very supportive of Joba over the last three seasons, but if he’s not going to start for the Yankees, the most value he could bring to the team is via trade.

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Anatomy of a Rumor: The Montero for Soria Proposal

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:33 pm 15 Responses »
Jul 262010

A few days ago, Jon Heyman dropped this little nugget into a larger trade deadline article:

They say they want a bat for the bench and bullpen help, and that is true. But they can’t resist big-game hunting. They tried hard for Lee and Haren, and made a big proposal for Royals closer Joakim Soria, as well.

At the time, I largely dismissed the rumor, simply because the words “big proposal” have been thrown around a lot lately regarding packages headlined by players such as Ivan Nova. However, Jayson Stark seemed to add some context to that tidbit with the following whopper:

Lots of Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria rumors flying in Kansas City. But teams we’ve surveyed say they see no sign that either is going anywhere. The Yankees just made another run at Soria, as first reported by SI.com — even dangling Jesus Montero. But the Royals weren’t interested.

When this story was brought to me attention on Twitter, I told anybody who would listen that the offer never took place. Brian Cashman would be extremely unlikely to give up Montero for a reliever, and even Dayton Moore is not quite dumb enough to turn that deal down. After the journalistic debacle that was the Dan Haren saga, my distrust meter was on high and I wondered how such a story could get started. Luckily, an intrepid commenter at RAB deciphered what occured. Evan 3457 noted that in the chat below Stark’s article, he added the following:

“I think you’re misreading the Yankees on Montero, Anton. They’re not hell-bent to move him. They’re just deeper in catchers than at any other position. They can’t move him to first base because Mark Teixeira has that covered. They don’t want to clog up their DH position long-term because they need to use it for their aging players. But they’re only going to trade him for a star type player. They offered him for Cliff Lee but nor for Haren. And it sounds as if they told the Royals they’d talk about him for Soria. But that’s it — so far.”

“It sounds as if” seems to suggest that Stark is not really sure, and that he does not have concrete information to that effect. So how did he reach that conclusion? Let’s let Evan 3457 finish the point:

OK, so now that TSJ traced the Montero/Soria report back to Heyman, now I know why Stark said “it sounds as if”, because Heyman’s report said “big proposal”.

Stark is assuming the “big proposal” includes Montero, who’s never explicitly mentioned by Heyman in that offer.

The fact that Stark actually references the SI/Heyman story in his report seems to fit with this conclusion. I have no way of knowing whether this is true, but it certainly seems more logical to me than the idea that the Yankees offered Montero to KC and were rebuffed. If it turns out that Stark actually has a source and “it sounds as if” was just a turn of phrase of some sort, I apologize in advance. But if he was simply taking the word “big” from Heyman’s report and assuming Montero, or had another uncertain source and reported it as definitive fact, that seems a bit irresponsible to me. It is also indicative of the unstable nature of the rumors that we hear. As this little example and the entire NBA free agency saga illustrates, just because  something is reported by a mainstream writer does not make it accurate.

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The problem with trading for Soria

Posted by Steve S. at 7:06 am 17 Responses »
Jul 212010

Photo courtesy of the New York Times

I’d love to trade for Joakim Soria as much as the next guy. He’s one of the few Closers in Baseball that reminds me of The Great Mariano. Slight build, misses bats (10.10 SO/9) has good control (2.53 BB/9) and is cool as ice out there. Fastball sits around 89-94 mph and has natural cutting action, which he throws most of the time. When facing Lefties, he complements the Fastball with a Change with good lateral action that he throws around 80-84 mph. Against Righties, he employs a Slider with good tilt and slow Curveball (66-71 MPH) that he mixes in equally. The cut on the Fastball makes hitters speed up their bats, and the breaking balls put them away. Earlier in his career, Mariano was called ‘the assassin’ (or El Asesino) and Soria’s nickname is ‘The Mexicutioner’. You could slide Soria in as the setup man until Mariano retires, and then have his replacement in the fold. At 26 years old, he’s still young enough to wait a few years and still have plenty left in the tank when that day eventually comes.

But here’s the problem with trading for Joakim Soria (courtesy of Cot’s)-

Joakim Soria rhp
3 years/$8.75M (2009-11), plus 2012-14 club options

* 3 years/$8.75M (2009-11), plus 2012-14 club options
o signed extension with Kansas City 5/17/08
o 09:$1M, 10:$3M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M club option, 13:$8M club option, 14:$8.75M club option ($0.75M buyout for each option)
o escalators based on IP (as starter) or games finished (as reliever)

At those prices, you’d have to give a truckload of talent to offset how underpaid he is. If for some reason the Royals love Joba, that would be a good place to start. But you’d have to fill 2-3 needs minimum with MLB ready talent. Some have suggested taking the overpaid Jose Guillen back, which would solve the bullpen and bench problem with one deal. But even then you’re talking about the Royals only saving 1/3 of his 12 mil contract, which expires at the end of this season. So you’re still looking at giving up lots of premium  young talent to acquire Soria and control him for the next 4 seasons.

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