Jorge Posada will not go quietly. At 38 years of age, the possible Hall of Famer – given his position as a catcher, he is an interesting case – is eager to continue playing as he closes in on 40. After noting, just a few weeks ago, that he would only relinquish his New York Yankees uniform by force, Posada continued that theme in a piece today by the Bergen Record’s Bob Klapisch. “I’m not going to make it easy on anyone trying to move me out,” noted the fiery backstop, affirming his place as the Yankees’ catcher, despite their abundance of such talent in the minor leagues.

While everyone is quick to discuss Derek Jeter’s approaching free agency given its immediacy (as if he will ever leave, give me a break), Jorge Posada’s situation is much more interesting, even though his FA is still two years away, due at the end of the 2011 season. As Posada has indicated, his approach to free agency, barring a dramatic offensive depression, which can be expected at his age, will be a stubborn one, a hardline display of machismo and pride, amongst other traits. Now, what will the Yankees do if Jesus Montero proves himself as a catcher by that point? What about Austin Romine? If such a scenario unfolds, do you make a “hard” decision or do you make an “easy” one? What if Joe Mauer actually hits the market? What if Posada has a great 2011? If Posada wishes to continue playing at that point in time, the Yankees will be faced with some particularly tough decisions. When one considers the many question marks surrounding this specific matter – these question marks are intimately tied to Posada’s age as well as his position as a catcher – it becomes clear it stands as the central personnel issue for the Yankees in the near future.

So, while many worry – for no reason, really – about the futures of Derek Jeter or even Mariano Rivera, in reality, it is Jorge Posada that is the most interesting free agent case on the Yankees’ ledger (again, even if it is two years away).

Photo by Getty Images

Austin Romine has had a very quiet spring training. He showed up for pitchers and catchers, and we’ve heard very little of him since. By many accounts, Romine is the #2 prospect in the Yankee organization, and I think quite a bit underrated by everyone commenting on him. Jesus Montero is a much sexier prospect, and his sexiness diminishes Romine’s considerable accomplishments and abilities.

I remember writing about Romine right after he was drafted. My reaction was that the Yankees may have found themselves first-round talent in an obscure high school in Arizona. Romine’s scouting report – good power, a rocket arm, good mobility, and enough athleticism – sounded like a younger version of Toronto’s 1st round pick J.P. Arencibia, who has since mostly succeeded in the minor leagues. The Yankees were able to find Romine because he had little exposure to MLB scouts at his obscure high school, despite all the positive signs, including a family history in the majors.

I prefer to keep things pretty simple when I evaluate prospects. What can Romine do? He can play plus defense at catcher, and he has better hitting skills than most peers at his position. While the hitting skills may or may not develop, the defense is already there. We’ve seen with guys like Omir Santos and Francisco Cervelli that defense alone can carry a catcher to the majors, so he doesn’t have to hit a whole lot on top of that in order to be valuable. Romine might be the most certain commodity in the Yankee system.

I think that there are a number of other reasons to believe Austin Romine will be a successful major league catcher:

• The Florida State League was particularly hard on hitters this season, and Romine, the FSL Player of the Year, still hit .276/.322/.441, improving on his raw power in a much tougher environment than he was subject to in Charleston. While that line seems modest, Romine was in fact top-10 in many offensive categories, including slugging, home runs, doubles, and total bases. He was younger than his competition, and the only catcher (besides Jesus Montero) to show that kind of hitting.
• Austin Romine was only 20 years old in 2009. At the beginning of his third professional season, Romine will be 21 years old and entering Double-A. He will be one of the youngest players at his level. While Jesus Montero was a prodigy who hit for power as a teenager, we can’t expect Romine (nor Montero) to be any where near the end of his hitting development at this stage in his career. He could add even more power.
• The average catcher hit .254/.316/.408 last year. It really doesn’t take a whole lot of stick to be a big competitive advantage as an every-day catcher. We don’t really know how much Jorge Posada’s defense hurts the team, but I’d wager that if you replaced him with a plus defensive catcher, you would earn 2-3 wins at the very least. By that logic, a .750 OPS Romine could be one of the best catchers in the league, which isn’t really asking a lot of a guy who could hit 20 home runs.

Overall, Yankee fans should have a lot of confidence in their second-best hitting prospect. A year from now, I could easily foresee a scenario where Romine is a top-50 prospect in all of baseball.

Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein released his top 101 prospects list today (these lists never seem to end), and the Yankees’ young marvel, Jesus Montero, ranked fourth on Goldstein’s list. The top 10 is as follows:

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2. Jason Heyward, OF, Braves
3. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Rangers
4. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
5. Mike Stanton, OF, Marlins
6. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates
7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays
8. Carlos Santana, C, Indians
9. Buster Posey, C, Giants
10. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Reds

If you are defined by the company you keep, then things are looking awfully good for the Yankees’ best prospect. Former farmhands, Arodys Vizcaino (45), now on the Braves, Austin Jackson (49), now on the Tigers, and Jose Tabata (90), now on the Pirates, were also featured. Outside of Montero, unfortunately, no other Yankees made the list.

Screenshot via Yankees/MLB.com

Yesterday at FanGraphs, Bryan Smith discussed what we might see from Jesus Montero in his cost-controlled years. He comes to the obvious conclusion that Montero offers much more value to the team as a catcher–even a part time one–than as a designated hitter. This is really a great article and the comments section is also worth the read.

Smith takes the highs and lows out of comparisons for Montero and reaches two relatively fair comparisons: Paul Konerko and Billy Butler. Going further down that path, Smith says we could expect the following out of Montero’s cost controlled years (the WAR number is assuming Montero is a full time DH):

Pick the middle ground, and I think this gives us a nice idea of what Montero might be able to do offensively. He’ll align closer with Butler in terms of BABIP and BB, closer with Konerko in strikeout rate and extra-base hit allotment. Overall, a player in the .290/.350/.500 range for his team-controlled seasons. Essentially, the player Konerko was in 2002 is what I envision for Montero. This .369 wOBA would have put him on par with Robinson Cano in last year’s Yankee lineup. He would be worth about 25 batting runs above replacement.

That is, choosing the Butler/Konerko path for Montero – which I think nicely middles the Dopirak/Stokes path and the Thomas/Cabrera path – means that Montero is +25 runs, +0 fielding, +20 replacement and -15 for positional adjustment. Overall, we’re looking at a 3-win player.

A three win player for cost controlled years is definitely valuable and would be nice to have. Of course, there’s always the chance Montero is more valuable than that. That would happen if Montero sticks behind the plate or his bat plays better than an .850 OPS/.369 wOBA. Of those two things, I’d say the latter is more likely.

Let’s assume, then, that Montero ends up as a DH but hits better than a .369 wOBA. His bat has draw comparisons to Frank Thomas, but that’s a bit ambitious (.416 wOBA). Instead, I think we should see Montero’s ultimate upside as somewhere in the Miguel Cabrera range. His career wOBA is .389. The average wOBA of his “floor”, the .369 from the Smith article, and the .389 I’ve (rather arbitrarily) decided on, is .379. For the record, that wOBA would’ve been the third highest among DHs in 2009 (behind Adam Lind’s .394 and Jason Kubel’s .384). Assuming 650 PAs at DH only, let’s project Montero’s possible WAR using the calculations used here. For position adjustment, I’m going to use Hideki Matsui’s -12.7 position adjustment at DH. I use this because he’s the player who spent all of his time time at DHs in 2009. The other guys on the FanGraphs DH leaderboard all played at another position in 2009 (even David Ortiz, six games at 1B).

Again, assuming 650 PAs with a .379 wOBA and a -12.7 position adjustment, Montero comes out as a 3.11 WAR player. A 3.11 WAR would’ve been tied for second, again behind Adam Lind, for DH value. Obviously, we’re all hoping for much more than that out of Montero (and let’s be honest, it’s possible that he plays much better than that, even if he’s a below average or worse, think Mike Piazza/Jorge Posada, defensive catcher), but if he put up 3.11 WAR during his cost controlled years, the Yankees could be getting good value out of him.

While this headline is rather obvious, the young Venezuelan made it very clear in an interview with NJ.com’s Marc Craig (h/t to River Ave. Blues) that he wants to be a catcher going forward.

When asked about possibly playing another position in the future, Montero was vague: “I don’t know. Maybe in the future, two, three, five years more, maybe they’re going to put me in another position. But I’m working to be a catcher. I want to be in the big leagues as a catcher.” Any player would likely say the same thing about staying at his natural position, but it’s great to see Jesus showing great desire for wanting to stick to catching. Craig asked a follow up and Montero said he wants “to be a catcher with the Yankees.” Of course, when a player is as big as Montero is behind the plate, it’s hard for him to master that position. Montero, though, is working. On changing his throwing mechanics: “Last year, I got a lot of outs when they told me that, more than before. I’ve been working really good with that. Now, let’s wait for the game, see what we can do.” These quotes show us that Montero is ready, willing, able, and most importantly, eager to improve his skills at catcher to make sure he sticks behind the plate.

The other thing that I absolutely loved about this interview is the feeling of happiness Montero gave off. This is a young man who just enjoys the game of baseball. He said catching was fun because by doing so, he gets to “control the game” and be “the third manager.” His true joy, though, seems to be hitting the baseball:

I like to have fun when I’m hitting. I love to hit. If we don’t hit in baseball, it’s not baseball. This is the best thing in my life: hit home runs, have fun, hit batting practice. Hitting for me is the best thing in my life.

This quote is just so full of awesome. What does El Carpentiero feel when he really gets a hold of one? “Happiness, pride, I don’t know, a lot of good things.”

I have a great feeling that Jesus is going to be feeling lots of happiness, pride, and good things in the years to come.

Here’s a notable item that we missed yesterday.

Baseball America released its Top 100 Prospects List and the Yankees were represented by their two young backstops, Jesus Montero (4) and Austin Romine (86). Atlanta’s Jason Heyward topped the list (no surprise there), while a few former Yankees in Arodys Vizcaino (69) and Austin Jackson (76) were also featured. According to BA’s J.J. Cooper, the group is based on what a player’s “ultimate major league ceiling is, weighed against the likelihood that he will reach that ceiling.” The Yankees weren’t as well-represented as the Red Sox, who had four players on the list, but they weren’t the least-represented either (the Cardinals and the D-backs had one apiece).

Photo by Jim Donten

Yesterday, Moshe posted 25 questions/issues going into Spring Training. Tackling them one-by-one in full posts would take way too long, so I’m going to give some quick hit answers to each one.

1. Jorge’s decline: Steve’s got legit concerns about Jorge declining, and if there’s anyone on the Yankees who’s going to decline, it’s likely to be Jorge. The average projection for Jorge doesn’t seem too ominous, but you never know with older catchers. My guess? Jorge doesn’t fall off a cliff, but he’s not as productive with the bat as he was last year.

2. The back up catcher: barring injury, I think this job is Cervelli’s to lose. His bat is iffy, but it’s okay for a back up catcher and his defense is solid.

3. The Jesus and 2010/catching: If we see El Carpentiero at all in ‘10, it’ll likely be as a September call up. As for whether he can handle catching, I’m cautiously optimistic. Regardless, that bat is downright dreamy and I want it sticking around in the Yankee organization for years to come.

4. Nick Johnson: Like with Hideki Matsui in ‘09, keeping Johnson off the field could be the key to keeping him healthy. If he does stay healthy, I think he could at the very least come close to matching Hideki/Johnny Damon, he’ll just do it in different ways. His power should bounce back by being in YSIII and I’d expect his HR/FB anomaly from 2009 to correct itself as well.

5. Cano’s defense: I think he’ll stay where he is, which is frustrating ’cause he’s brilliant out there at times.

6. Jeter’s contract situation as a potential distraction: I don’t think it will be an issue until after the ASB.

7. A-Rod’s defense: I think we’ll see the second half A-Rod on defense–still below average with the range (but what an arm!), but not as bad as he was immediately after returning.

8. Utility role: I say Pena, unless Russo really wows everyone in ST.

9. Which Swish: It may not be an exact copy, but I’d put good money on the ‘10 Swisher looking a lot like the ‘09 Swisher.

10. Grandy vs. lefties: Hopefully, Kevin Long can work some magic. And, yes, moving to YSIII will definitely help C-Grand.

11. Gardner as an everyday player: I’m cautiously optimistic for Gardner, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on this issue.

12. Randy Winn’s possible decline: 2009 looks like one of two outliers in the last 8 seasons, 2006 was the other. If he can bounce back, great. If not, it’s not a huge sunken cost and he’s replaceable.

13. Gardy or Grandy in CF: I’ll be happy either way, but the numbers point to Gardner in CF.

14. Hoffmann or Thames: I think they’ll go with Hoffmann, just to see what he’s got unless Thames absolutely destroys the Grapefruit League.

15. October hangover for SPs: It’s possible, but they’re veterans who know how to manage their bodies. Hopefully, there are no ill effects.

16. Javy as unclutch: I see good things for Javy this time around.

17. A.J.’s health: Burnett will pitch at least 185 innings in 2010.

18. 5th starter: I’ve written more than once about this. Joba it shall be.

19. BP or SWB: See above.

20. Damaso: He won’t be as lights out in the playoffs, but he’ll be his usual lefty destroying self since he’ll finally be healthy for a full year.

21. Second lefty: I don’t think a second lefty is a must, but I think General Joe likes the idea of having two lefties, so I think they’ll at least start off the year w/2 LHRPs.

22. If not, who gets the job: No thinking, gut reaction, Melancon.

23. Mo and…aging…: I’ll defer to Chris Turk for the answer.

24. Girardi’s lack of job security: The only way it becomes an issue is if Joe really screws up this year, which won’t happen.

25. Room in the budget if needed: They’ll find it.

So, there you have it: 25 quick answers to 25 complex questions. Before you know it, it’ll be November and we’ll be looking back on these (hopefully after a 28th championship) issues and their outcomes. Here’s to hoping they all turn out the way we want them to.

In NoMaas’ interview with Brian Cashman, the GM was asked about Jesus Montero’s fate as a catcher.

He responded to the question, “Do you think [Montero's] future is behind the plate,” with the following:

We hope so. His value is highest as a catcher. His bat will find a way into the middle of the lineup, that’s without a doubt. Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first baseman, a rightfielder, a DH – that remains to be seen. But he’s got one of the best throwing arms in the minors, he’s got some of the best blocking…he’s just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release. That’s an area he needs to shorten up.

Note that Cashman rattles off “right fielder,” before designated hitter, as if being a DH is the last option if everything else fails. From what I’ve read, Montero could play first base, though his lack of foot speed would preclude him from being an outfielder. Conversely, Cashman does not seem to agree with that assessment, at least not here. Montero has not seen any time in the outfield during his short minor-league career, but if he can somehow man right field in the future – or left, but his arm strength might play better in right – then it would be a tremendous plus for the Yankees.

Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images

NoMaas.org again brings us a great Yankee interview. Brian Cashman sat down to talk all things Yankees. Its really a great read. I recommend reading the whole thing. I’d like to comment on a few things.

SJK: On to the 5th starter competition — Joba Chamberlain lost significant juice on his fastball last year, in some estimates over 2 mph. How concerned are you about that and is that something which will weigh into your decision about who becomes the 5th starter?
CASH: Performance will dictate. He was inconsistent last year. He has completed his development program. May the best man win.

SJK: But, speaking of what you just said about sample sizes, how can you make a decision based on Spring Training?
CASH: You are forced to make those types of decisions. You take into account their prior history, but really no one is coming in with an edge. We’ll see what we see. Maybe someone shows up out of shape or pulls a hamstring, that helps make a decision. Maybe someone is throwing ball better than someone else.

SJK: Will Phil Hughes’ reported innings limits factor into the 5th starter competition?
CASH: No, it will not be a factor on his chances of becoming 5th starter. We will mandate what his innings limits will be and Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland will have full authority on how they would manage those innings – just like last year with Joba. They could truncate it at the beginning, it doesn’t matter me. It only matters to me if they exceed their limits.

SJK: Is the loser of the Hughes/Joba battle going to be permanently placed in the bullpen or is this just a 1-year situation?
CASH: There is no permanent anything. Your team has to be flexible. The great thing is we have guys who have the ability to both go in the bullpen and start. If somebody gets hurt, somebody’s performance suffers…Chad Gaudin can start and relieve, Sergio Mitre can start and relieve, Aceves can start and relieve, Hughes and Joba can start and relieve. These guys have the ability to succeed at both ends, some more than others.

I don’t know about you, but that’s definitely the mindset that I want to hear coming from Brian Cashman. He pretty much said, “Whomever works hardest and proves themselves best will get the spot. We’ll worry about the innings and bullpen stuff after that.” That’s fantastic. Play off the competition between the two. He didn’t say it outright, but the loser seems to be destined for the bullpen, not Scranton, even though he may be converted back to starting. Great news.

He’s also not making any excuses for the players. “[Joba] has completed his development program. May the best man win.” That puts the onus squarely on the player’s head. I love it.

SJK: If the season were starting tomorrow, who would be your starting CF?
CASH: Curtis Granderson. But if Gardner proves our team is better with him in CF and he can be an everyday outfielder…he has a lot to show in a short amount of time in Spring Training. We believe he is better in CF and we believe Granderson would be terrific in LF. But, Granderson was acquired to be our everyday CF and that is our expectation.

Brett Gardner isn’t going to be handed the center field job, but he will have a shot at it. Cashman doesn’t seem to have much of a concern that moving Granderson will harm his long term viability in center. He’s basically arguing what I’ve been advocating for, “If the team is better off with Gardner in center, Gardner will be in center.”

SJK: Do you think we’ll see Jesus Montero in the Boogie Down at some point in the season?
CASH: I don’t see him in the Bronx this season. He needs to take his next step in the process.

SJK: Do you think his future is behind the plate?
CASH: We hope so. His value is highest as a catcher. His bat will find a way into the middle of the lineup, that’s without a doubt. Whether he stays behind the plate, is a first baseman, a rightfielder, a DH – that remains to be seen. But he’s got one of the best throwing arms in the minors, he’s got some of the best blocking…he’s just so big, mechanically he takes a lot longer in his release. That’s an area he needs to shorten up.

This is the most interesting portion of the interview to me, because we get some genuinely new information, even if we could have deduced some of it before:

• 2010 isn’t Montero’s year. We pretty much assumed this already, but Cashman confirms it. Jesus Montero already doesn’t really have a spot on the roster, and they probably don’t consider him one of their early depth call-ups. He has development left, and I’m sure the Yankees are in no hurry to get his arbitration clock running. We might even see him start in Double-A, though I doubt it.
• Outfield is an option. I can’t remember a Yankee official ever once mentioning Jesus Montero as a potential right fielder before. Not only does Cashman do that, but he mentions Montero’s strong throwing arm (which he exaggerates a bit, but we have heard in the past of a plus arm) and struggles with footwork behind the plate. I don’t remember Mark Newman ever really discussing Montero in another position. So please correct me if I’m wrong, but this might be a first.

Good stuff NoMaas. Way to ask the right questions.

Each year, USA Today creates a list of minor leaguers/rookies that all baseball fans should know and watch for in 2010. This is not a top prospect list, but is a list of the 100 players most likely to reach the majors for more than a cup of coffee, and make some sort of impact. Last year’s list included Brett Gardner, Austin Jackson, and David Robertson, with Gardner and Robertson scoring regular roles on the 2009 Yankees. This year’s list includes 2 former Yankees (Jackson and Jose Tabata), and 4 current Yankees:

52. Mark Melancon, RHP, Yankees: Next in line to continue the run of success the Yankees had last season with young pitchers setting up in front of closer Mariano Rivera, Melancon, 24, should fill one of the openings. He’s a hard thrower with a sharp-breaking curve. Groomed as a reliever since turning pro in 2006, he has bounced back well from missing 2007 after Tommy John elbow surgery.

56. Zach McAllister, RHP, Yankees: He’s a sinkerballer who induces plenty of ground balls and can pitch himself into the mix as a 22-year-old this spring. Major league bullpen work is a possibility, but McAllister would be among the first to be considered if there’s a need for a major league starter. His chances would improve if the Yankees decide to keep Phil Hughes in the bullpen.

58. Jamie Hoffmann, OF, Yankees: Hoffman, 25, is a strong defender who can play all three outfield positions, has plenty of speed and is a consistent contact hitter. That’s why the Yankees believe he someday will be an everyday player. In the meantime, Hoffman must be good enough to make the roster because he was a Rule 5 draft selection from the Dodgers and must be offered back to Los Angeles before he can be sent to the minors.

66. Jesus Montero, C, Yankees: His power is his biggest asset, but the fact that he’s a catcher and there’s no other obvious successor to Jorge Posada could have Montero, just 20, in the major leagues this season. Barring an emergency, his initial stay won’t be long because he has had only a half-season at Class AA and needs to continue developing his defensive game.

I am assuming that Ramiro Pena and Frankie Cervelli do not qualify, as both have an excellent chance to play roles on the 2010 club. I would be surprised if any of the four listed above make the club out of spring training, which would likely mean that Hoffmann will be returned to the Dodgers. Furthermore, I do not think it is likely that we see Zach McCallister at all this season, as he is at best 9th on the starting pitching depth chart and still has room for improvement at the AAA level. Montero seems to be a longshot as well, but a major injury to Jorge Posada or a late season loss of Nick Johnson could press him into MLB duty. It is unlikely, but possible, as the Yankees will certainly be tempted to use Montero for his bat should those players go down. Finally, I think Melancon has the best chance of the four to stick with the Yankees for much of the season, as he could nab the last bullpen spot out of camp and has the talent to hold onto a spot once he is given the chance.

What do you think of this list? Are there other minor leaguers that you think can have an impact on the 2010 Yankees? How about Romulo Sanchez? Ivan Nova? Kevin Russo?