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Comparing Top Prospect Lists

Posted by Eric Schultz at 5:59 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 112011

This is the exciting time of year when many respected prospect raters (and plenty of intelligent amateurs) release their preseason top 100 lists.  The Yankee farm system had a strong year that was reflected in the high rankings of many Yankee prospects on these various lists, and an organizational ranking around #5, depending who you ask (Jim Callis had them at #5 Keith Law was a little lower on them, and Frankie Piliere had them at #4).  I just wanted to take a moment to compare the placement of the Yankee farmhands on the top 100 lists from various sources, to see which prospects have more of a consensus, and which ones remain controversial.  The lists I am going to use are from Keith Law (from ESPN), John Manuel (Baseball America, only a top 50 list), Frankie Piliere  (a former scout, writes for AOL fanhouse), John Sickels (doesn’t have a full ranking, but uses letter grades and Project Prospect.  Let’s take a look at what these various sources have to say about the top Yankee prospects (apologies that my table looks like crap).

Keith Law John Manuel* Frankie Piliere Project Prospect John Sickels Average Standard Deviation
Jesus Montero 4 3 4 3 A 3.5 0.6
Manny Banuelos 12 20 13 34 B 19.75 10.1
Gary Sanchez 68 17 34 74 B+ 48.25 27.3
Dellin Betances 73 18 44 NR B+ 45 27.5
Andrew Brackman 88 NR 60 NR B- 74 N/A
Austin Romine NR NR NR 86 B- N/A N/A
David Adams NR NR NR 97 C+ N/A N/A

*Only a top 50 list

What can we learn from looking at these rankings?  A few things are pretty evident right away.  The consensus on Montero is pretty solid, with everyone having him in the 4-5 range (and he would likely rank similarly from Sickels, though there are 7 A-rated hitting prospects).

For Banuelos, too, the consensus is pretty strong.  Sickels and Project Prospect are the outliers here.  John has explained his concern about Banuelos having to do with durability questions, presumably due to his size.  To me, that’s a pretty ridiculous argument, as Manny has never had any arm problems, and has smooth mechanics.  As for Project Prospect, they still like the guy a lot, and I would almost have expected him to be a little higher, as they tend to have a very floor-heavy list (and I think Manny, size withstanding, is considered pretty safe as pitching prospects go).

Sanchez has wide variation, and this is understandable for a 17 year-old catcher in Rookie ball.  Some sources, such as Manuel and Piliere in particular, appear enamored with his ceiling and less concerned about his distance from the majors.  It’s a matter of philosophy with a guy like Sanchez, though it is worthy of note that Manuel and Piliere in  are often higher on Yankee prospects than most.  These guys will look smart if Sanchez pulls a Montero and continues to tear up full season ball, but they are also taking a risk on a guy who played most of the season in rookie ball at 17.  Project Prospect has him the lowest at 74, which I still think is a respectable rating for a guy with as little experience as Sanchez.

Betances too is exceptionally polarizing, ranked as high as 17 on Manuel’s list, and did not make Project Prospect’s top 100 list at all.  This too is a reflection of the sizable distance between Betances’ ceiling and floor, through his risk comes more from his injury history than a lack of experience.

Andrew Brackman made Klaw’s and Frankie’s list (and I would guess he would have been on a John Manuel top 100 list too), and the rating of 60 from Frankie is explained by the glowing scouting report that he wrote this summer.

Romine and Adams are both mentioned on Project Prospect’s list, and they share the common theme of being pretty close to major league ready with the bat, and good bets to stay at an up-the-middle defensive position.  It is understandable that Adams missed the other lists due to injury and Romine missed due to a mediocre 2nd half.

With rankings like these, it’s important not to sweat the small stuff, but overall, despite their variations, these lists paint a rosy picture of the Yankee farm, which bodes well for the organization’s future without the “Core Four.”

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My 2011 Prospect List

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 21 Responses »
Feb 102011

You're awfully big, Jesus. (Photo-NJ.com)

Here it is folks:

  1. Jesus Montero
  2. Gary Sanchez
  3. Manuel Banuelos
  4. Dellin Betances
  5. Andrew Brackman
  6. Slade Heathcott
  7. Adam Warren
  8. Austin Romine
  9. Graham Stoneburner
  10. Hector Noesi
  11. David Adams
  12. Jose Ramirez
  13. JR Murphy
  14. Cito Culver
  15. Brandon Laird
  16. Corban Joseph
  17. Mason Williams
  18. Bryan Mitchell
  19. David Phelps
  20. Rob Segedin
  21. Brett Marshall

That’s right, 21 prospects, not 20, or 30: 21. I settled on 21 because I feel pretty good about 21 names. I’m more of an upside/ceiling type man myself. I think in any ranking though you have to consider closeness to the majors and the fact that a 3 or 4 type starter is pretty damn valuable these days. If you’re wondering why Eduardo Nunez is not on this list than you obviously don’t follow me on Twitter. I tend to like athletic, up the middle talents who show a lot of tools and potential. Angelo Gumbs was a near miss for me. Let me know what you think and disagree with of course- I look forward to a lively and profanity riddled comment section threatening me with great physical harm and/or death.

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Frank Piliere Releases Top 100 MLB Prospects List

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:00 pm 11 Responses »
Feb 102011

Frank Piliere of AOL Fanhouse released his top-100 MLB prospects yesterday. The Yankees came out pretty big.

#4 Jesus Montero: “He still has critics who like to point to his defense but there is just about no one who will criticize Montero’s bat. Will he be a good defensive catcher? No, but he has shown enough improvement to be an adequate defender. That combined with a potentially special bat make for an impressive total package.”

#13 Manuel Banuelos: “Some like to pretend Banuelos came from nowhere in 2010. Well, he didn’t. He picked up a couple ticks on his fastball and lives at 93-95 now, but even before the spike he was armed with two good secondary offerings and plus command.”

#34 Gary Sanchez: “Most organizations would sign up for having Sanchez as their top prospect, but he doesn’t even get the title of top catching prospect in his organization. That may soon change, however, as Sanchez’s bat rivals Montero’s at the same age and he looks like he’ll be a better defender.”

#44 Dellin Betances: “If not for his injury history, Betances would likely be toward the top 20 in this list. The owner of a 93-96 mph fastball, a plus curveball and a rapidly improving changeup, the towering right-hander has all the components you look for in a frontline starter.”

#60 Andrew Brackman (No Commentary)

And in his online chat, every other question was about Yankee prospects. On Banuelos:

[Comment From Jay CT]
What is Banuelos’s ceiling, and what ML pitcher could you compare him to?

Frankie Piliere: You know I get this question a lot. I use to not agree with the Johan Santana stuff but it’s probably the most accurate one if you have to pick a current big leaguer. He’s similar in size, velocity, and command to the Santana of a few years ago. The changeup is not as unhittable as Santana’s and he isn’t the pure strikeout machine Santana was. But there’s definitely some comparable aspects. I think Banuelos is a number one in the making. Not to say I told you so but I screamed about him last year at this time. People like to just talk about the new velocity but A. his velocity didn’t spike as much as people say. He went from 90-92, 93 to 92-95. and B. his game goes far beyond just raw stuff

[Comment From T-Dubs]
Assuming both had perfect health, is Betances a better prospect than Banuelos?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of Yankee questions. That’s difficult. I might be in the minority but I still think I take Banuelos. I absolutely love Betances’ stuff but the more bust proof guys are the guys with a great feel for pitching and that’s definitely Banuelos.

[Comment From Kim Last]
Would you take Banuelos or Hellickson?

Frankie Piliere: There’s a battle of two guys I absolutely love. Long term give me the lefty with the power stuff. Banuelos

On Jesus Montero:

[Comment From Ben Kabak]
How overrated is Montero? He won’t even catch.

Frankie Piliere: I’ll go with….not overrated. Let’s say for argument’s sake he doesn’t catch. He’s still an elite bat. And, I think he will catch so that’s why he’s up there on the list.

[Comment From Trevorlon]
Do you think the Yankees will move Montero to the outfield in the future or is he a dh?

Frankie Piliere: I’m sticking with him as a catcher. I know I’m in the minority but I’ve seen him enough to see improvement and enough to be an adequate defender.

On Gary Sanchez:

[Comment From Zak]
Gary Sanchez was 25th on your list midway through the season and he was bumped back, even though he finished strong, IMO. Was that due to overrating him on your previous list or something else?

Frankie Piliere: Just a mild adjustment. Now there are 2010 draftees to consider, and I saw more of the new players in instructs and the AFL. Certain no drop in stock for Sanchez. He’s as good as ever.

On Austin Romine:

[Comment From Zak]
Thanks for doing a chat! Austin Romine was 15th midseason on your list and no where to be found, unless my eyes are bad on your top 100 list. I got to see him and it just looked like he was flat out exhausted to me. Is there another reason why he was bumped off so badly?

Frankie Piliere: Lots of things can change huh? Yeah, with all the new draftees considered now and seeing guys more, I just started slowly sliding Romine back. He was one of the final few cuts. He definitely wore down I think. The 15 ranking could have been reactionary on my part because I don’t feel he’s dropped THAT much in status. But he’s slipped a bit, no doubt.

On Dellin Betances:

[Comment From jake h]
You are super high on Dellin. Do you see him as a starting pitcher?

Frankie Piliere: I definitely see him starting. Three average or better offerings and improving command.

On Adam Warren:

[Comment From Zak]
Adam Warren is one of my personal favorite from the Yankees farm system, seems like he doesn’t get too much love as he’s always grouped with Phelps, DJ Mitchell, etc as a backend of the rotation starter. I’m not saying he’s front line, but isn’t he at least worthy of a middle of the rotation type? He’s got good stuff!

Frankie Piliere: I like Warren better than the two others you mentioned. You’re right that he probably doesn’t get quite enough love. He’s not a finesse guy. He runs up into the mid 90s at times and relies on that fastball. But his secondary stuff continues to improve. He’s a middle of the rotation starter.

On Andrew Brackman:

Comment From Trevorlon]
What’s the ceiling of Andrew Brackman and where does he project as a starter?

Frankie Piliere: Let this serve as another opportunity for me to say i was wrong about Brackman. I was very down on him going into the season and he really resurrected himself. He’s a tough guy to project though. Still a bit inconsistent and at that size I think repeating his delivery will always be a challenge. I’d say he’s a #3 just because his command will never be completely consistent.

He offers a strong defense of Montero’s defense, plus great words about Betances, Banuelos, and even Adam Warren.

This is already a long post, so I won’t say much more, except one thing. I know that a lot of readers get a little worried that the powerful optimism about the Yankee farm system is just the product of some collective Yankee blogger Zeitgeist. Piliere is both one of the smartest guys out there publishing about prospects and has no vested interest for or against the Yankees. And he just compared Manuel Banuelos to Johan Santana. Think about that one.

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Catching Notes

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Feb 102011

There were two articles in the New York Daily News yesterday that involved catching, and more specifically, Jesus Montero. The first was from Anthony McCarron and it reminded us that Russell Martin is the team’s starting catcher. Despite that, Montero is obviously determined to catch (as he should be):

“I want to be behind the plate,” Montero said Tuesday during a break from a session in the batting cage. “I want to show everybody that I can catch with the Yankees.”

This hearkens back to something we heard from Montero about a year ago. It seems as if nothing’s going to keep Montero from working on his defense and becoming a viable catcher in the Majors. We should realize, though, that’s a process that won’t be complete any time soon. From GM Brian Cashman:

“Russell Martin is the starter,” Yankee GM Brian Cashman said Tuesday. “With Russell, it gives us the ability to transition to the next generation in the best way possible”

While Cashman acknowledges that Martin is the starter, he also makes what we were all already thinking known: Russell Martin is essentially a stopgap until Jesus Montero is ready to catch full time. That could be in 2011, it could be in 2012. We know that Jesus Montero will more-than-likely see time in the Majors at some point this season. The only question is the role that he’ll play. I can’t see him being with the big club unless he’s going to play every single day.

McCarron mentions the “competition” for back up catcher job involving Montero, Austin Romine, and Francisco Cervelli. This is about as much a competition as last year’s fifth starter competition was. This job is Francisco Cervelli’s, no matter what. Even if Montero and Romine rake in Spring Training while playing passable defense, there’s no way the Yankees put either one of them on the bench. While Romine’s stock dove in 2011, he’s still got upside and needs to be playing every day to improve. It doesn’t need saying, but I’ll say it anyway: Jesus Montero needs to be in the lineup every day.

Next, John Harper has notes about Montero being a keeper. This is obvious. I’ve argued all along that the Yankees need to keep Jesus Montero at almost any cost. Even if he can’t catch, his bat will still be cheap and is likely to play anywhere on the diamond, including DH and 1B. Harper shoots down the idea of the latter:

With Mark Teixeira signed for six more years, first base is not an option for Montero

Not so fast, John. Montero may not be able to play first base consistently for the next six years, but afterwards, the possibility is most definitely open. Tex’s contract expires after the 2016 season. Jesus Montero will turn 27 after the 2016 season. He will be entering his age-based prime and will have had a few years of experience at the ML level. Even playing first base would add positional value for the Yankees and Montero.

Harper ends the article with this:

If it’s Felix Hernandez, the decision is a no-brainer. But what if it’s Chris Carpenter? Surely Montero would be too much to give – unless the Yankees were three games out of the wild-card race and six behind the Red Sox.

Desperation could make that a call Cashman prays he doesn’t have to make.

1. The Mariners aren’t trading Felix Hernandez. Though I should note that Hernandez is the only type of player the Yankees should look to acquire if they trade Montero: a young, top-flight starting pitcher.
2. Harper’s right to say that Chris Carpenter is not worth giving up Montero. However, his caveat is also wrong. Even if that scenario comes true, the Yankees should NOT give up Montero for Carpenter–or anyone.

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PECOTA on the Bench

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 2 Responses »
Feb 082011

A couple of weeks ago we looked what CAIRO, the projection system, had to say about the Yankees bench. Now we’ll take a look at PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’s projection system. Keep in mind that these numbers ARE park adjusted.

LASTNAME FIRSTNAME BATS POS PA HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Jones Andruw R CF 455 21 55 7 0.224 0.326 0.431
Cervelli Francisco R C 450 5 40 3 0.257 0.325 0.354
Maxwell Justin R CF 450 13 45 23 0.222 0.318 0.377
Laird Brandon R 3B 539 20 67 1 0.25 0.293 0.421
Russo Kevin R 2B 450 4 37 10 0.25 0.314 0.334
Belliard Ronnie R 2B 450 9 45 4 0.249 0.311 0.371
Nunez Eduardo S SS 496 7 49 15 0.268 0.299 0.365
Pena Ramiro S SS 450 5 38 9 0.241 0.287 0.326
Chavez Eric L 3B 450 10 43 2 0.223 0.293 0.353
Curtis Colin L LF 486 8 46 3 0.239 0.299 0.353
Golson Gregory R CF 480 9 47 15 0.24 0.281 0.354

The Yankees will almost certainly break camp with Andruw Jones and Frankie Cervelli. They’ll also want one backup SS which would be either Nunez or Pena. So the last spot could be up for grabs in a sense. Brandon Laird would be an interesting option but he hasn’t really shown the ability to hit in AAA much less the majors. It’s best for him to get regular at bats. Russo, Belliard and Chavez are interesting cases. Chavez can hit when he’s healthy, but that hasn’t happened for about half a decade. Belliard has a lot of positional utility and can kind of hit while the same can be said of Kevin Russo.  I think the smart money is probably on Ronnie Belliard.

For giggles, I put together this graph of positional players who are somewhat close to the Yankees 25 man roster. True average is on the X axis while fielding runs above average is on the Y.

Easy to get excited about Montero, no? I thought the Justin Snyder projection was interesting. He’s more of an organizational guy who does two things well- reach base and play defense. He’ll be at AAA in 2010 as he only has 6 ABs so far in Scranton. PECOTA also has Cervelli as better than Romine right now which I think is totally correct. While a lot of fans are chattering about Romine taking over for Cervelli this season, I think that’s getting a little too crazy. He’s not major league ready yet. I Ditto on Jorge Vazquez. I know a lot of people think he’s a hot commodity right now because of his Caribbean series exploits but I wouldn’t get carried away with that, or him for that matter.

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Manuel: Montero Can Be Adequate Defensively

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 7 Responses »
Feb 072011

John Manuel of Baseball America recently did an interview
with NoMaas, and made a number of interesting statements over the course of his remarks. The one I found most compelling was his opinion on Jesus Montero’s defense:

The consensus is (and frankly has been for the last two years) that Montero has improved, but will never be an average defender.
He’s got plus raw arm strength, but a slow, inconsistent release. He’s become more flexible and agile behind the plate, but is who he is — a behemoth for a catcher. He’s just big, in a better way now, but still big. I believe he can catch in the majors, but it would always be “adequate,” and he would be an asset for his offense, not his defense.
Comparing him to Mike Piazza, he has a better arm but is a lesser receiver. He’s never been held up as a guy who is great at handling pitchers, either.

Check out the remainder of the interview, as Manuel is very candid in his assessments and NoMaas asks some strong questions. As for Jesus, I recently suggested that the Yankees might be better off just sticking Montero at DH and forgetting about him for the next 10 seasons, but that contention was based upon the premise that Montero will be an awful defender. If he can be adequate or even moderately below average behind the plate, it is almost certain that he would provide more value to the club in both the short-term and long-term as a catcher. It seems like the Yankees believe that he can meet that standard, and I expect them to give him a chance to be the starting catcher on Opening Day 2012, and possibly sooner if Russell Martin does not work out.

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Should The Yankees DH Montero To Keep His Bat In The Lineup?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 25 Responses »
Jan 312011

Keith Law ranked Jesus Montero 4th among all prospects in his recent prospect rankings, and made a very interesting comment about Montero’s future that struck me as fodder for discussion:

There’s also a concern about the long-term effects that catching will have on Montero’s knees. He is listed at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, and only five players in MLB history have caught 200 games at or above those numbers, three of them (Joe Mauer, Chris Snyder, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia) have had knee and/or back problems.

With a bat this potentially strong, why risk injury or give up the 20-25 games a year when your catcher has to rest? Montero could solve the Yankees’ DH problem for the next 10 years if they commit to it, a move they are unlikely to ever regret.

Brian Cashman recently stated that the Yankees believe Montero is better defensively than some catchers currently starting in the majors, which is faint praise but does suggest that they believe he can handle the position. Assuming for a moment that this is true, Law’s premise that they might be better off just sticking him at DH depends on the answer to the following question: would the health benefits of sticking him at DH AND the defensive benefits of getting him out from behind the plate outweigh the fact that having his bat at catcher is a major positional advantage for the Yankees? There are other considerations, such as the fact that A-Rod may need to DH soon, but I am leaving such issues out of the analysis at this point and focusing solely upon Montero.

Let’s look at the numbers, while noting that Law’s point seemed to focus primarily on health, something that we are unable to quantify. When determining replacement levels, a catcher is credited with 12.5 runs while a DH is debited 17.5 runs (which addresses the fact that similar offensive performance at those positions have widely disparate value). The Fangraphs glossary item on positional adjustments (h/t @alskor) addresses this issue directly:

Essentially, the width of the spectrum of major league players being used at their best positions is about 30 runs – if you have a league average defensive catcher and you make him a full time DH, you’ve whacked about three wins off of his value.

Now, let’s assume for a moment that Montero is terrible defensively, but just competent enough to remain at the position (if he is not at all competent, then it is obvious that he must be moved). According to +/-, the worst defensive catcher in 2010 cost his team 10 runs with his glove. Being that moving an average defensive catcher to DH would cost the club 30 runs, doing so to an atrocious defender would slash 20 runs, or two wins, from the player’s value.

Playing time is another issue that needs to be factored into this analysis. As Law notes, everyday catchers need frequent rest, such that Montero’s bat would be removed from the lineup regularly were he to remain a catcher. The catcher who played the most innings last year was Yadier Molina, who started 130 games. As a DH, Montero would likely be able to start in most games, meaning he would lose 20-25 games as the starting catcher. Now, let’s make another assumption and believe that Montero would be a top DH (again, we assume this because if he is not a great bat, it is almost certain that it would make more sense to try him at catcher, because the club can go out and obtain a solid DH fairly easily). Judging by my Twitter poll of some sabermetric folks, the value of those 25 games is somewhere between .5 and 1 win. Being that we are assuming that Montero will be an excellent hitter, let us go with 1 win gained as a DH. This means that the switch from catcher is costing the Yankees two wins defensively but gaining one win due to extra playing time, for a net of one win lost per season.

One other factor that needs to be raised is the idea that Montero may hit better if he is not getting beaten up behind the plate on a daily basis. I do not have access to the research on this issue, and from what I have heard it is fairly murky. As such, I will simply note that intuition would tell you that it should be easier for a player to focus upon hitting without the physical and mental burden of running the game as the catcher weighing upon him.

Obviously, the numbers can be fiddled with by altering the assumptions that were made in the course of analysis. If you maintain the assumption that Jesus will be a great hitter but peg him as a -5 defensive player, the loss becomes 1.5 wins. Similarly, if you maintain the assumption about his defense but think we are being overly optimistic about his bat, you again end up with a loss of 1.5 wins. I think it is fair to say that statistically, moving Montero from catcher to DH would cost the Yankees somewhere between 1 and 1.5 wins of value on a yearly basis, possibly closer to 1.5 at the start of his career and then dropping closer to 1 as he ages.

Now that we can put an estimated number on the value side of the equation, we need to address the health issue. First, we need to make one last assumption: assuming that they want to, the Yankees can keep Montero for his entire career, such that we can conduct this analysis while considering the value he might provide at the end of his career. If catching costs Montero enough playing time over his career to outweigh 1-1.5 wins a year, it would make sense to move him off the position to save his bat. This is where we get into areas that are tough to quantify. Looking at the history of catchers in MLB, they seem to decline quicker than other players. If Montero’s size makes him a strong candidate for injury and early decline, the Yankees would be best-served by moving him off the position to preserve his bat. If the Yankees do not see him as a particularly high risk for injury, and believe that he unlikely to lose 15-20 wins of value over his career due to the physical strains of catching, they should keep him behind the plate for as long as they can.

The inability for us to evaluate the injury risk makes it impossible to reach a firm conclusion on this issue. I will say that when I first read Law’s comment, I thought that he was mistaken, and now I am not nearly as certain. Montero’s purportedly great bat and awful glove narrows the value gap between catching and DH’ing considerably, and the possibility of injury might close the gap entirely.

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Time to Complain

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 10 Responses »
Jan 262011

It’s January 25th as I write this. When you read it, it will be January 26th. We’re definitely at the lowest of the low point in the offseason. The Hot Stove is about as hot as the weather in the northeast right now. I’ve been pretty even keeled for most of the offseason, but I think it’s time to complain about some things, even if they’re not big in the grand scheme of Yankee basketball.

The MLB.com prospect rankings came out yesterday and there are two things I want to complain about. Jesus Montero clocked in at number 9 on the rankings. In terms of the top 50, that’s great. Still, though, I think I’m in the majority in saying that 9 is too low a ranking for Mr. Montero. His future position may be in question, but no one can deny his bat and how special it is and how much his age intensifies that specialness. In my semi-educated opinion, Montero should be no lower than 5th on that list.

My next complaint about the rankings is the fact that Eduardo Nunez showed up as the number 9 second base prospect. Whiskey tango foxtrot? Nunez has played a total of 20 games (19 MiL, 1 ML) at second base (and that ML appearance was a one inning “stint”). Not only is Nunez a shortstop and not a second baseman, but even if he was, he’s not even the best 2B prospect in his own system, let alone the 9th best in baseball. For the record, I think David Adams is the Yankees’ best 2B prospect.

There was a lot of complaining about Brian Cashman on the radio yesterday. Yeah, I know, I should shut it off. But, I’m in a (terrible) rental car so I don’t have my tape-deck aided iPod to play so I’m forced to listen to the radio. Anyway, personalities on both WFAN and ESPN were bemoaning Brian Cashman and his situation. While they didn’t exactly chastise him, they were at least a bit critical of his handling of the Derek Jeter situation, especially the part when Cash told Jeter to test the market and his comment yesterday about Jeter in the outfield. Cashman should’ve told Jeter to test the market and if in his shoes, I would’ve done the exact same thing. As for Jeter in the outfield, well, that makes some sense considering Jeter’s age. I don’t think he could handle center field, but that’s a conversation for another time.

Anyone who thinks that comment was a “shot at Jeter” is stretching at least a little bit. While it’s not exactly flattering to the Captain, it’s not exactly against common sense either. If there was an opening somewhere, I think we could be discussing Jeter moving off of SS NOW rather than later. It makes sense that a guy who’s a below average shortstop now will have to move off the position when he’s older.

Lastly, I just want to touch on something that was in the comments of an article I wrote. The comment was about a user being against the Granderson trade when it went down and being more against it now, especially considering the fifth starter’s situation. I’ll grant the user the pre/during trade hesitations (though I’ll later address them), but looking back and saying it was a bad deal because of the current fifth starter situation is a bit of hindsightism.

At the time of the trade, Kennedy had no spot on the team and the Yankees had a need in center field. They could’ve used Austin Jackson but Curtis Granderson was, is, and probably will be the better player going forward. 2010 may not have been perfect for Granderson, but he was just as valuable as Jackson in a lot less time. Going forward, I highly doubt that Jackson’s bat will match Granderson’s. That trade was a good deal at the time and unless Granderson gets hurt very badly, it will continue to be a very good trade. I’d do it every time, especially for that price. For the record, I’d do the Vazquez trade every time, too.

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CAIRO on the Bench

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 252011

CAIRO is the projection system set up by SG, the man behind the curtain over at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog. Since it’s pretty dead out there right now, I figured we could take a look at some bench candidates and how they might project in 2011.

Now to be fair, projecting players who have yet to play in the majors is extremely difficult. In the past I have tried to take a “rolling average” concept to these projections and come up with a ballpark number for each prospect. It’s just too difficult to tell exactly how someone will transition to the major leagues. So keep that in mind as we look ahead.

NAME POS PA SB HR AVG OBP SLG wOBA BRAR
Montero C 508 1 18 .261 .326 .446 .337 24
Adams 2B 386 6 6 .240 .314 .373 .306 6
Nunez SS 528 19 7 .257 .296 .350 .286 6
Romine C 502 4 10 .238 .281 .362 .283 6
Pena SS/3B 324 7 3 .244 .290 .324 .274 1
Cervelli C 292 3 2 .255 .326 .347 .303 5
Russo 2B 419 9 4 .243 .305 .328 .286 0
Curtis OF 483 4 9 .242 .303 .361 .295 -1

BRAR- Position adjusted Batting Runs Above Replacement

Much to the chagrin of Yankee fans everywhere, we know Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena will probably make the team out of spring training. In lieu of the Yankees signing another utility player though, this might make the most sense.

Montero would obviously be an upgrade over Cervelli and I don’t think anyone would question that. However it would be smart for the Yankees to see how he looks in spring training and get him some more seasoning in AAA. As for Austin Romine, I don’t think there is any doubt he needs more development time. He should get regular at bats in Scranton to continue his progress.

It’s so very easy to hate on Ramiro Pena because he is so very bad at baseball. However his ability to play SS, 2B and 3B is a skill unmatched at this point by anyone aside from Eduardo Nunez. Is the difference in hitting ability from Eduardo Nunez to Ramiro Pena really big enough to make up for Nunez’s poor defense though? Probably not. And while I’d love to see David Adams in the majors this year, his broken ankle needs to be rehabbed prudently. Had he gone uninjured, he may have seen some AAA time and thus be primed for a stint in the Bronx this year. Obviously that never happened. So it would be best for him to continue to play every day and get healthy. He is a solid defender but doesn’t have the positional utility that Nunez or Pena does. Ultimately I think Adams could be a really nice piece so I hope he continues to develop and can stay healthy.

Russo looked overmatched at the plate in his brief stint in New York but I thought he held his own in the field. I don’t think he’s as bad as he played last season but WOW, is a .470 OPS scary as hell. As for Colin Curtis, I don’t really have a firm grasp on what his role would be with the Yankees. As Mike Axisa broke down, the last two spots on the roster will be filled by one positional player who can play SS (read Nunez/Pena) and the last probably with some ability in the outfield. I agree with Mike that there are probably better options for that last spot on the market.

I think in the best case scenario, Eduardo Nunez and David Adams eventually turn into players the Yankees can depend on off the bench. Nunez would be able to play SS, 2B and 3B and if Adams goes the super utility route, he’ll play 2B, 3B and some outfield. Eventually, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine will take over the catching duties full time for the Yankees, squeezing out Frankie Cervelli and Russell Martin. That’s obviously not a scenario in play for 2011 though. In the future the Yankees should have some nice assets able to compliment their starting 9. In 2010 though, we should expect to see more of Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervelli.

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Musing About The Bench

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 202011

The Yankees are on the cusp of signing veteran outfielder Andruw Jones to be the team’s first OF off of the bench. They signed Russell Martin to be the starting catcher for now, with Francisco Cervelli as the back up, and Jesus Montero on the way up. Jorge Posada will be the primary DH and could probably catch every once in a while. The team will also (likely) have Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez to man the extra infield spots. Just so we can see it lined up:

OF–Andruw Jones
C–Francisco Cervelli
IF–Eduardo Nunez
IF–Ramiro Pena

Having two back up infielders may seem excessive, but the way the Yankees’ OF will be structured, I think it’s okay. All three starters are good enough both offensively and defensively that they won’t need many days off. Jones can spell one of Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner against tough lefties and is also a balanced enough player that he wouldn’t need a replacement fielder after batting for one of those guys. The outfield is also, generally, younger than the infielders. Those guys–especially the guys on the left side–will need more days off for regular rest than Gradnerson, Gardner, or Nick Swisher will.

The big thing Joe Girardi will need to avoid is having the three weaker backups–Cervelli, Nunez, and Pena–in the lineup all at the same time. I’m sure at some point this will happen, likely because of late inning defensive replacement (LIDR) moves. I doubt that Girardi will ever put all three of them into the starting lineup in a game that matters.

The catching rotation will depend on two things: How Russell Martin and Jesus Montero start the season. For arbitration/free agency reasons, I’m sure the Yankees will look to keep Montero in Scranton-Wilkes Barre for at least the first month or two of the season. If Martin falters, though, and Montero mashes, we could see the Montero Era start sooner rather than later. That would do one of two things: send Francisco Cervelli back to the minor leagues or mean the end of Russell Martin as a Yankee.

Where we could see some interesting maneuvering is with Jorge Posada. Obviously, he can catch. He won’t be doing it much considering his spot as a full time DH, but he can do it. Perhaps some rest will do him well when he does get a chance to catch. Posada could also be called upon to play first when Mark Teixeira needs a day off, though I imagine that duty would fall to Nick Swisher first, with Andruw Jones taking RF for the day.

Aside from the eventual call up of Jesus Montero, the performance of Brandon Laird could also shape the bench as the season moves along. Laird’s been a third basemen for his entire minor league career, but played outfield in the Arizona Fall League this past season. If he can keep up the bat that’s advanced him through the minors, while playing non-statue defense at third and in the outfield in early 2011, we could see him swapped out for one of Pena or Nunez. Greg Golson could also make a play as an LIDR and we could easily see Colin Curtis get some playing time, too.

The Yankee bench may not be sparkling, but what team has a sparkling bench? No matter what, the bench in the Bronx will feature either young or cheap parts that will not be heard to replace. This, like the bullpen-building strategy, is one that has a lot of advantages, especially for a team like the Yankees.

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