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Tuesday Yankees Hot Stove, interest in Sheets

Posted by Eric Schultz at 2:29 pm 24 Responses »
Dec 152009

After a ridiculously busy Monday that saw the signing of the top pitcher on the market, a blockbuster 3-team deal, and the news that the Cardinals may offer Matt Holliday an 8-year deal, the hot stove is still burning.  While Boston made some big acquisitions yesterday in the form of John Lackey and Mike Cameron (and might add another bat via free agency or trade), Brian Cashman is not sitting pat.

Ken Rosenthal, via twitter, is reporting that the Yankees are “very interested” in signing RHP Ben Sheets.  Sheets, who missed the entire 2009 season after having surgery, is reportedly seeking as much as 12 million per year, a lot for a player who is coming off surgery, and has not pitched over 200 innings since 2004.  The Yankees would likely hope to offer Sheets a similar contract to that of Rich Harden, another oft-injured righty who can pitch like a front of the rotation starter when healthy.  Harden got a 6.5 million dollar deal with a mutual option for 11.5, for a total of 7.5 million guaranteed over 2 years.  The Yankees will probably offer Sheets a 1 year deal with a base salary in the 6-8 million range, with incentives for starts,  innings pitched, or some other measure of durability that could bring the value of the deal up to the 12 million dollar range that Sheets is demanding.

Sheets is an intriguing buy-low opportunity, and as a guy with great control and the ability to strke batters out (k:bb ratio of almost 4:1 for his career with a career 1.201 WHIP), he could be a nice addition to the Yankee rotation.  If signed, Sheets would likely compete with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain for the 4th and 5th spot in the rotation, though he may want a guaranteed spot in the rotation as part of the deal.  If he insists on demanding more than a reasonable 1-year deal with incentives and a team option for a 2nd year, then it may be too expensive to justify the risk in signing a guy coming off elbow surgery.  An additional risk that Sheets entails is that he has never pitched in the AL before, but he is certainly talented enough to succeed in the AL East.  Sheets may not want to sign right away according to Rosenthal, so the Yankees may have to wait this one out.

Rosenthal also reports that the Yankees have contacted Jason Bay’s representatives, and may be interested in him.  I can’t imagine Cashman will want to shell out the kind of money for Bay that he appears to be demanding (considering he turned down a 4-year 60+million offer from Boston), considering Bay’s horrendous defense.   However, if Holliday signs with the Cardinals and Bay doesn’t have many suitors left, his price could drop, at which point Cashman and the Yankees might be willing to swoop in.

From what it sounds like, the Yankees are looking for at least another bat and likely a starter as well.  Johnny Damon, who can DH and play left field, is probably still the Yankees’ top choice (though not for a 4-year deal that Boras has reportedly demanded).  Other intriguing DH possibilities could include Nick Johnson, Jack Cust, and Carlos Delgado.  Justin Duchscherer is another pitcher the Yankees may be interested, and he has had success both as a starter and a reliever.  More updates will be posted when we hear them.

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Predicting free agent contracts, pt. 1

Posted by Chris H. at 9:15 am 31 Responses »
Sep 172009

Jon Heyman, along with an unnamed agent and general manager, offered a few contract predictions regarding the top 24 free agents for 2010. In the following mini-series, I’ve highlighted some of the more interesting names, including players that the Yankees will likely be interested in, and Yankees that will be granted free agency at the season’s end. The series begins with the top free agents available for 2010: 1) Matt Holiday, 2) Jason Bay, and 3) John Lackey.

Here are the contract predictions, via Jon Heyman, scout, and GM, juxtaposed with my own analysis.

1. Matt Holliday, Cardinals OF. St. Louis is going to try to keep Holliday, one of four big summer pickups who helped the Cardinals run away with the NL Central. The Cardinals are going to hope that he loves being in their baseball-crazed city to the point where he would forego bigger dollars elsewhere (Boston and both New York teams are likely interested). With franchise man Albert Pujols‘s contract up in two years and Cy Young candidate Chris Carpenter in a year, the Cardinals don’t figure to be the high bidder. The agent said he believes that Holliday and Bay should each get $2 to $3 million a year less than Teixeira. But the GM said, “Teixeira’s a plus defender, a switch-hitter and slightly younger” than Holliday.

Agent: $147 million, 7 years.

GM: $80 million, 5 years.

Me: $120 million, 7 years.

Holliday is the crown jewel of the upcoming free agent class. Although he had a rough start to his season in the AL, he rebounded while with the A’s and ultimately hit .286/.378/.454 over 93 games. With the Cardinals, he’s sprinting towards the finish-line, as he has hit .363/.415/.659 since his NL return (he has 12 homers with them, too, 1 more then he had with the A’s while playing nearly 50 more games with Oakland). Holliday can hit, he can field, and he has surprising speed (14 SB on the year).

The Yankees will certainly look at him as a left field option in 2010, although with Hal Steinbrenner at the ship’s helm, I wonder if they would be willing to commit the years or dollars predicted by Heyman or the agent. I could see them paying $17 per over 6 years, but 7 might be a deal breaker. Conversely, I think the GM is undervaluing Holliday. If he were available at that price ($16 per over 5), then the Yankees would most definitely ink him to a deal.

2. Jason Bay, Red Sox OF. The Red Sox tried earlier, and Bay has said he loves playing in Boston, a stark change from Pittsburgh.

Agent: $147 million, 7 years.

GM: $60 million, 4 years.

Me: $80 million, 5 years.

I think Jason Bay is being tremendously overrated by the agent. While his offense is a plus, he’ll be 31 at the end of this season, whereas Matt Holliday will be 29 (no one is going to give him 7 years). I think the GM and Heyman have better predictions given Bay’s streaky offensive year. Bay has also been awful, defensively—a trend which began in 2007, after some leg problems—which significantly undermines his offensive value. I think the Yankees may look at him as a secondary option if they do decide to chase Matt Holliday, however, I don’t think they’ll pay top dollar for his poor defense. Heyman probably has the best prediction at $16 million per (he’ll be overpaid if he doesn’t figure out his fielding problems).

3. John Lackey, Angels pitcher. The Angels tried last winter at close to $60 million over four years, but Lackey said he signed a team-friendly deal last time and won’t do it again.

Agent: $75 million, 5 years.

GM: $60 million, 4 years.

Me: $85 million, 5 years.

Holliday, Bay and Lackey will be the biggest names available and, with the Yankees, they’re always in on the bigger names, so I had to discuss Lackey. Now, I don’t see the Yankees going after him—not after they gave a lot of money to CC Sabathia (deserving) and A.J. Burnett (undeserving). Still, Lackey is one of the better pitchers in baseball—he’s totally underrated—and could always become a legitimate option if Andy Pettitte chooses to retire (unlikely) or if the Yankees plan on starting the season with Joba or Hughes in the minors, so that they may continue to build up their innings, etc. (also unlikely). Also, if the Yankees choose to bring back Johnny Damon for left field and opt for the rotating DH idea, they could have money to burn on pitching.

Lackey should command the same $82.5 million that the Yankees gave to Burnett, which is a lot of money, obviously. Frankly, Lackey is a better pitcher than A.J. is, too, and will likely get a few more dollars because of it (Heyman’s $85 million prediction sounds about right). I do think that he’ll wind up on the Red Sox, though, which means you’ll inevitably read a number of reports about Yankee interest over the winter to drive up his price (reports concocted by Lackey’s agent and the Yankees).

These three players—Holliday, Bay and Lackey—stand as the cream of the 2010 free agent crop. You’ll probably hear that the Yankees are interested in all three during the course of the offseason, although one, in particular, seems like a really good fit (i.e., Matt Holliday) given the team’s needs and goals. Tomorrow, I’ll have more on some of the other free agents discussed in Heyman’s piece that could potentially play a part in the Yankees’ 2010 plans. So, stay tuned…

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Red Sox and Bay Table Contract Talks = Good News For Yanks

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:59 pm No Responses »
Mar 152009

According to the Boston Globe, contract extension talks between OF Jason Bay and the Red Sox have been tabled until after the season. Theo Epstein had the following to say:

“The market has changed so much from two years ago to this winter, from a year ago to now,” Epstein said. “Who knows where it’s going to be a year from now? So that unpredictability, I think, has created a landscape that’s been difficult for us to navigate in terms of getting an extension done a year early. Both sides wanted it, so we tried. But both sides recognized that it’s just too difficult to get done right now.

“We had some talks [earlier in the offseason], but they weren’t really substantive. Recently, we’ve had more substantive talks. It’s become clear that because of the unusual marketplace, we’re not going to get anything done during spring training. We’re going to sort of halt talks for now, just table them. But both sides have committed to maintaining good dialouge throughout the course of the season.”

As the regular readers of the blog know, I am hoping that Bay is available this offseason to fill one of the holes in the outfield created by the pending free agency of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Xavier Nady. At worst, another talented outfielder on the market should keep the price lower for players such as Matt Holliday and Manny Ramirez. Bay is likely to come with a lesser price tag than both of those stars, while providing similar production. He would be a nice fit at number 5 in the Yankees order, and I hope that he and the Sox fail to find common ground.

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