In the previous installment of this mini-series, I took a look at Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, and John Lackey. In this installment—with two more on the horizon—I now analyze the predictions offered by Jon Heyman, an unnamed GM and an anonymous scout, in relation to the following free agents: 1) Chone Figgins, 2) Bobby Abreu, and 3) Jarrod Washburn. While some are more interesting than others, all three are truly noteworthy names that may generate interest in the Yankees’ front office. First, we begin with Figgins.

4. Chone Figgins, Angels infielder. Versatile player is expected to draw interest from many teams. The White Sox and Yankees might top the list.
Agent: $40 million, 4 years (or $30 million, 3 years).
GM: $35-40 million, 4 years.
Me: $50 million, 4 years.

Chone Figgins is a solid offensive player. He’s a speedster that hits for a high average and, although he took a step back in ‘08, he has generally improved upon his on-base abilities since 2006. This season he is hitting .301/.395/.390 with a .356 wOBA, while stealing 42 bases and accounting for 108 of LA’s runs. What he lacks in power—only 4 HR this year—he makes up for in fielding versatility, as he can play practically any position outside of catcher. The Angels have let him man third for most of the year, though, and he has more than settled in there, defensively (15.8 UZR). Taking his defensive diversity and offensive tools into account, I think he’ll ultimately receive a 3-4 year deal worth $10 million per (Fangraphs has him valued at $25.6 million this year).

Buster Olney recently speculated that the Yankees would sign Figgins to play left field. He makes sense in that he’s a versatile guy, something the Yankees seem to want, especially if they keep their DH slot open as a resting chair for their other players. However, while Figgins can play left field, in limited playing time, he has never posted great defensive numbers there. Frankly, he has always been a better infielder than an outfielder. In fact, when compared to other third basemen in the AL, much of Figgins’ value this season is tied up in his defense (second best defensive 3B in the AL, middle of the pack offensive 3B).

Therefore, I don’t think that the Yankees will want Figgins for left field. Sure, he can play the position when needed, but he has never really played there full-time and has never shown that he can be an above average outfielder. If he’s a mediocre outfielder and his bat isn’t particularly good, then he what’s the point of signing him? For that reason, I think the Yankees will either pursue another player, or they’ll resign Damon for left (Damon’s not a good defender anymore, but his offense is still valuable). In addition, I doubt the Angels will let Figgins go since he has been central to their team’s success and their overall style of play.

In the end, Figgins makes a lot of sense for a number of teams, however, the Yankees could certainly do better in their search for a left fielder.

6. Bobby Abreu, Angels outfielder. One of baseball’s most consistent players made $16 million in 2008 before inexplicably having to take a pay cut of nearly 70 percent. The GM sees Abreu as comparable to Raul Ibanez, who received $31.5 million for three years last winter.
Agent: $6 million, 1 year.
GM: $30 million, 3 years.
Me: $30 million, 3 years.

There’s not much to say about Bobby Abreu, another Angel and a player that Yankee fans know very well. He has performed above his $5 million contract in 2009, hitting .295/.393/.428 with a wOBA of .365. His power has faded considerably, however, his eye is still strong and his wheels are still working (29 stolen bases on the year). He has proven to be one of the better free agent pickups of the winter and $30 million over 3 years seems fairly reasonable.

When the Yankees let him walk in 2008, it was primarily because of his age and defense (both of which are still concerns). However, since the Yankees will likely need a regular DH with the ability to play the field every once in a while, they could do worse than Bobby Abreu. Will he end up with the Yankees? Probably not. I truly doubt that they would be willing to pay him $30 million over 3 years, although he’ll most likely get that from someone (i.e., Mets). Abreu also didn’t like the way the Yankees handled his exit, so he may not entertain their offers even if they do show an interest in him.

7. Jarrod Washburn, Tigers pitcher. Huge performance in Seattle, not so much in Detroit. Could go back and rejoin the Mariners.
Agent: $18 million, 2 years.
GM: $18 million, 2 years.
Me: $36 million, 3 years.

This season, Washburn pitched well in Seattle, thanks, in part, to an improved two-seam fastball and the Mariners’ excellent defense. Before being traded to the Tigers, Washburn’s ERA was 2.64. However, ever since he arrived in Detroit, he has struggled, posting a 7.33 ERA over 8 games. In his defense, Washburn’s Motown blues appear to be brought on by a significant knee injury. Given his age—he’s 35—the injury, and the way he is performing down the stretch, I believe he’ll receive a contract similar to what the GM and the agent have proposed at $18 million over 2 years.

The Yankees have been interested in Washburn for a few years now and they could look to him as an option if Andy Pettitte doesn’t return. And, even if Andy does return, Brian Cashman could choose to pursue Washburn for the back-end of the rotation. A Washburn signing would ultimately depend on what the Yankees want to do with Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Given that Hughes could certainly start the season in Scranton in order to build up his innings, having Washburn as your number 5 starter to begin the season could be an effective plan.

Of these three players—Figgins, Abreu, Washburn—all of them make some degree of sense, yet, each one appears to be a secondary option. Before signing Figgins, I’d like to see the Yankees pursue Matt Holliday and bring Johnny Damon back as the DH on a short-term deal, whereas Abreu will seek a multiyear contract. Also, a Washburn signing would be dependent upon a number of in-house moves regarding Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Again, all three players would be useful to the Yankees, however, none of them seem like the best fit.

Since July’s trade deadline, Roy Halladay has put together a truly forgettable campaign. In 6 starts in August, Halladay had a 2-4 record, a 4.71 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP and a .316 BAA. Sergio Mitre actually had the same amount of wins in August while having started fewer games. One wonders how Halladay would have performed if he had been traded.

Jarrod Washburn, who, unlike Halladay, was actually traded a few hours prior to the July deadline, had a 6.81 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in August. He has won just one game for Detroit since joining the team (the same number had by Chad Gaudin).

Funny how things work out sometimes…

From George King (NY Post):

At Friday’s trade deadline, the Yankees added utilityman Jerry Hairston Jr. and nothing else. Not wanting to add payroll, the Yanks weren’t serious players for lefty Jarrod Washburn, who went from Seattle to Detroit.

So, what are the chances of making a deal now that a player has to clear waivers in order to be traded?

“Who knows — if it makes sense we will look at it,” GM Brian Cashman said. “There will be opportunity for people to do deals in the new deadline. What that means for us remains to be seen.”

If Hal Steinbrenner didn’t allow Cashman to take on significant money before July 31, it’s unlikely he will do so now. However, the Yankees are locked in a tight race with the Red Sox, and if Aceves isn’t right and Mitre continues to get spanked, they will be forced to make upgrades.

Multiple sources said yesterday that players will get through waivers this year more than in recent years due to teams not wanting to get stuck with a contract via the claim process.

King is basically saying that Hal Steinbrenner prohibited significant payroll additions at the trade deadline. He also says that, because of financial concerns, the Yankees were never serious players for Jarrod Washburn. That can be disputed, however, as Bryan Hoch notes that the Yankees didn’t make a serious play at Washburn because Seattle’s demands were too high. They reportedly wanted Austin Jackson, which wasn’t going to happen—not for a 2-month rental. Still, as Steve Lombardi points out, the Yankees could have bargained with the Mariners, right? Sure they wanted A-Jax—everyone asks for a team’s top prospects at the outset—but considering what they got for Washburn from the Tigers, it seems as though they would have lowered their demands if Cashman was truly persistent. What, then, is the truth? Did financial concerns limit Cashman or was it the Mariners and their unreasonable requests?

In the end, I believe that the Yankees didn’t want to take on Washburn’s contract which ultimately explains why he isn’t with the team today. Everything they’ve said about the M’s wanting A-Jax is simply disinformation to make it look like they actually tried to get Washburn. We heard numerous reports leading up to the trade deadline claiming that the Yankees wanted teams to pay the salaries of trade targets like Bronson Arroyo and Brian Bannister, which support this theory. Based on the information at hand, it really seems like the Yankees aren’t going to make anymore moves this year unless they are absolutely forced to—not because of unfair trade packages, but because of Hal Steinbrenner’s fiscal philosophy.

It seems that one of the major options to fill the rotation hole soon to be created by Joba Chamberlain’s inning limits has been snapped up by Detroit. In a strange move from a team that needed a bat a lot more than it needed an arm, Detroit has reportedly snapped up the 35 year old lefty, for prospects Luke French and Mauricio Robles. The Yankees were clearly not entirely sold on Washburn, because that is an offer that they certainly could have beaten without it hurting too much.

One guy that I think would be a good fit is Justin Duchscherer of the A’s:

Justin Duchscherer took a step forward in his comeback from the disabled list, throwing two perfect innings with two strikeouts Sunday in a rehab outing with Class A Stockton.
It was the first game this season for Duchscherer, who has been sidelined while recovering from elbow surgery and back problems. Next up is a Friday start with Triple-A Sacramento.
Duchscherer seems on track to return by mid-August. He could be part of a six-man A’s rotation, or he could start out in the bullpen to keep building arm strength.
Or, he could be wearing a different uniform.

He is a guy with a 3.14 career ERA with experience starting and relieving. He would give the Yankees incredible flexibility in terms of dealing with Joba Chamberlain, as he is another guy who can be shuttled back and forth between roles to accommodate team needs. As Buster Olney points out:

He has been often hurt in his career, but when Duchscherer is active and pitching, he usually fares pretty well, whether as a starter or a reliever. The 31-year-old has had four seasons of 55.2 or more innings, and his ERA has never been higher than 3.27 in those seasons. Twice he has made All-Star teams: once as a reliever, and once as a starting pitcher, most recently in 2008.

Seems like a nice low buy option. What do you think?

From Joel Sherman (NY Post):

The Yanks are among the teams that have checked in on Washburn. However, as of this afternoon the two sides still had not discussed names. In addition, Hal Steinbrenner has ruled that the team cannot take on significant money the rest of the season. That is a huge reason why the Yanks are not players on Roy Halladay. Washburn has about $3.7 million owed to him the remainder of the season, which could be a hurdle for the Yanks.

$3.7 million a hurdle for the Yankees? The Yankees can’t absorb that? Is this legit or is it just posturing? What’s interesting here is the dynamic Hal Steinbrenner adds to the Yankees. Hal is characterized as the frugal spender, one who is restrained and conservative with his wallet. However, is that merely an image that helps the Yankees posture with other teams, forcing them to eat significant chunks of a contract, or, is it actually true? He did open up the bank for Mark Teixeira, however, that was something that Brian Cashman had to convince him to do (reportedly). Based on what happens at the trade deadline, whether it involves Washburn or another player, we could find out what Hal’s all about in terms of his financial flexibility.

Via MLBTR, just came down a few minutes ago:

Mariners Ready To Sell

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 28 at 6:06pm CST]

6:06pm: Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal are now reporting that Washburn is “officially available” and have informed the Yankees, who plan to make an offer soon. The Brewers also could be interested in Washburn.

Now the question becomes what do they want for him, and can the Yanks strike a deal. The price will clearly be less than the asking prices for Halladay or Cliff Lee, given Washburn’s  career track record and the money still owed to him. But check this out

Pitcher A-ERA 2.62 W-L 11-3 SO 123 WHIP 1.05 BAA .243

Pitcher B-ERA 3.14 W-L 7-9 SO 107 WHIP 1.30 BAA .278

Pitcher C-ERA 2.71 W-L 8-6 SO 78 WHIP 1.06 BAA.224

Figure out who’s who yet? Pitcher A is Roy halladay, Pitcher B is Cliff Lee and Pitcher C is Jarrod Washburn. Washburn appears to be the steal of the bunch, given the asking prices we’ve heard to date. To be fair, Washburn is in a contract year while Lee and halladay are signed to reasonable contracts through next season.

After losing their last three games and falling further below the Angels and the Rangers in the AL West (they’re now 7 1/2 games out), Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi (FOX Sports) note that the Mariners are heading into sell mode. According to an unnamed official from a contending team who spoke with KR and JPM, “They’re about ready to do some things.” All of this, of course, is speculation, however, Jarrod Washburn—who is scheduled to start tonight against Toronto—has long been a Yankee target. Last year, the Yankees tried to acquire him but balked at the Mariners’ asking price. This year, the rumors continue to swirl around the crafty veteran and he knows it.

Washburn, of course, was in play last year at the trade deadline as well, and nearly was dealt to both the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins.

“I guess my feelings are a little different,” he said. “Last year, I was hoping something would get done. This year I am just waiting to see. If it does, it does. If it doesn’t, I am happy either way.

“The first one [last year] had me going to the Yankees, and that didn’t work out. I was a little disappointed, but I was able to convince myself that I probably wouldn’t fit in that well in New York, anyway. That was OK. But when it was the Twins, that one stuck with me a little more. It would have been in my backyard and I was thinking how good that would have been.”

While Washburn clearly likes the Twins, he seems to enjoy the idea of pitching for the Yankees, as well. He’s a good fit for the team, too, as they could probably eat a significant amount of his salary in order to get him (he’s owed 10.35 million this season, though much of that has already been paid) and therefore, maybe they won’t have to part with any top talents from their farm system. I’ve written about Washburn before—he has been stellar this year, thanks to his defense in Seattle, a bit of luck, and a revamped two-seamer. Will his success translate to the Yankees for the rest of 2009? I’m not sure, but I like him better than Brandon, excuse me, Bronson Arroyo.

According to Ryan Divish of the News Tribune (a Washington-based paper), a slew of scouts, including “representatives” from the Yankees, were on hand yesterday to watch Jarrod Washburn take on the Tigers in Detroit. Washburn didn’t disappoint, either, as he tossed 7 strong innings of 2-hit baseball and gave up 0 ER (with 2 BB, 3 K). At 34, he’s having one of the best years of his career, if not the best, and he attributes his success thus far to a mechanical adjustment, which he thanks ex-Yankee and Mariner BP coach, John Wetteland for, that has allowed his 2-seamer to be more effective (he claims it never sunk before). He also claims that the adjustment is helping his other pitches—specifically the curveball—as well.

However, while J-Wash has certainly done a good job this year, his ‘09 season is a bit more complex than an improved 2-seamer, although that’s certainly part of it. Mike over at RAB explains the situation pretty well, discussing Washburn’s individual contributions to his stellar season while simultaneously outlining other factors involved (e.g., luck, team defense) which may be benefiting him.

While he has done a swell job against southpaws in his career, righthanders have hit Washburn up for a .265-.323-.758 batting line. Those problems against righties were exacerbated last year when they pounded him to the tune of .299-.361-.504. The two-seamer has allowed Washburn to neutralize righties better than he has in some time (.252-.307-.382 this year), and he’s been death to lefties (.175-.211-.278). It’s a new pitch hitters haven’t seen before, and they’ve yet to adjust to it. His strikeout rate is up a tick, his walk rate is down nearly a full walk per nine innings, and his BABIP is touch low but not outrageous. The big difference between Washburn’s ERA and FIP can be explained by Seattle’s insanely good defense, particularly in the outfield since he’s a flyball pitcher.

Now, I wouldn’t say that Washburn is throwing an entirely new pitch by using his revamped 2-seamer, rather, as Washburn himself notes, he has merely tweaked a pitch that he has always had. Beyond that, Mike’s assessment is spot-on, as the shift in mechanics is truly helping him in his battles against righties and it appears as though his other pitches have been helped, as well, contributing to his overall effectiveness (i.e., increased K/9, etc.). However, if the Yankees were to trade for Washburn—and, given Chien-Ming Wang’s impending conference with Dr. Andrews and Joba Chamberlain’s innings cap, such a trade seems even more probable—I would expect a significant regression as the Yankees simply do not have the defensive ability seen in Seattle’s OF (which Mike also notes via Washburn’s FIP). Plus, I wouldn’t necessarily say that Washburn’s BABIP is “a touch low,” rather it is particularly low when compared to his career number. In addition, one can’t ignore Washburn’s slightly higher than normal strand rate, either. Basically, all signs point to a regression, but the 2-seamer should help in keeping him fairly effective, especially when compared to previous seasons where the 2-seamer’s movement wasn’t as good.

In the end, I’m assuming the Yankees were scouting the Mariners-Detroit game for a reason and that reason is, without a doubt, Jarrod Washburn, who they have been interested in since last year. I think he’ll definitely end up on their to-do list unless a better and cheaper option comes along (which I doubt). He would be a solid starter for them, though, and would definitely help in fattening up a somewhat slim rotation (I’m assuming the Mariners sell like they’re from Pittsburgh).