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Best Case Scenario: Fifth Starter

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 1 Response »
Feb 072011

Late last week I played around with a WAR spread sheet and projected the 2011 rotation while comparing it to the 2010 rotation. I was pleased by the results since they weren’t as ugly as we may’ve expected. Consider it riding that relatively high feeling, but I’m going to get a bit more bold. I’m going to take all those random fifth starter candidates–Sergio Mitre, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, and David Phelps and project their performance in a different way.

I’m going to keep their CAIRO projected FIPs the same, but I’m going to tinker with the innings. Instead of changing the projected performance, I’m going to change the duration of that performance. I’ll take whatever FIP that CAIRO gives me and “extrapolate” it out to the same number of innings the Yankees got out of their “fifth” starter last year. I designate fifth starter as the guy with the fifth highest innings pitched total. In 2010, that was Andy Pettitte and his 129 innings. Performance wise, Pettitte obviously wasn’t the fifth best starter, but we’re just talking innings here. I call this post the “best case scenario” because if the Yankees get 129 innings out of any of these guy’s, it’d be damn near miraculous.

Sergio Mitre:
Actual Projection: 4.69 FIP in 72 IP = 0.7 WAR
Extrapolated Projection: 4.69 FIP in 129 IP = 1.3 WAR

Ivan Nova:
Actual: 5.04 FIP/116 IP/0.8 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.04 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Freddy Garcia:
Actual: 4.90 FIP/31 IP/0.2 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.90 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Bartolo Colon (No CAIRO projection for Colon, using Marcel instead):
Actual: 4.60 FIP/66 IP/0.7 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.60 FIP/129 IP/1.4 WAR

Hector Noesi:
Actual: 4.91 FIP/81 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 4.91 FIP/129 IP/1.0 WAR

Andrew Brackman:
Actual: 5.26 FIP/63 IP/0.3 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.26 FIP/129 IP/0.6 WAR

David Phelps:
Actual: 5.05 FIP/94 IP/0.6 WAR
Extrapolated: 5.05 FIP/129 IP/0.8 WAR

Based on these ridiculously rough calculations, the best we’re probably looking at from the Yankee (nominal) fifth starter is anywhere from 0.6 WAR (Brackman) to 1.4 WAR (Colon, which is probably the most out there of these projections). Considering what the Yankees got out of their fifth starter(s) last year in terms of performance, I would sign up for that. Javier Vazquez was under replacement level by fWAR (-0.2) in 2010 so anything would be an improvement. I’m not confident in saying that any one of these guys will necessarily reach the arbitrary 129 IP mark, but if it happens, I’ll be dancing.

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Projecting the Rotation

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 022011

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. CC Sabathia had a typical CC Sabathia season. Andy Pettitte was great, but was injured and threw under 130 innings. Mitre enjoyed a small sample of (probably unsustainable) success; Moseley was replacement level as expected; Nova showed some potential. Phil Hughes looked like he was starting to realize his considerable upside, though he did slide a bit after an impressive first month. Vazquez and Burnett? Looking at their collective performance in 2010 is like looking at the light that came from the Ark of the Covenant, only it wasn’t the power of God but of unmatched suckitude.

All told, the 2010 starters for the Yankees tossed 973 innings and racked up 10.60 fWAR. Can the 2011 rotation match or beat that? A lot of our gut reactions might say “no” considering how poorly we’ve been “conditioned” to view the forthcoming rotation. So I plugged some Yankee projections into the pitching WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Box Score (glove slap Mike Axisa) to see what would come out the other end.

I intended this post to only be about Ivan Nova, but I thought why not expand it to the whole rotation? After all, I like to think I live by the “go big or go home” motto that a high school friend spouted perpetually. I used nine starters, the nine I think are most likely to make starts for the 2011 Yankees. I took their CAIRO projected innings pitched and FIPs and plugged them into the above spreadsheet and here’s what I got:

CC Sabathia: 210 IP w/3.68 FIP = 4.7 WAR
Phil Hughes: 172 IP w/4.17 FIP = 2.8 WAR
A.J. Burnett: 187 IP w/4.50 FIP = 2.3 WAR
Ivan Nova: 116 IP w/5.04 FIP = 0.8 WAR
Sergio Mitre: 72 IP w/4.69 FIP = 0.7 WAR
Freddy Garcia: 31 IP w/4.90 FIP = 0.2 WAR
Andrew Brackman: 63 IP w/5.26 FIP = 0.3 WAR
David Phelps: 94 IP w/5.05 FIP = 0.6 WAR
Hector Noesi: 80 IP w/4.91 FIP = 0.6 WAR

Before we get to tabulating the results, I want to review my methodology a bit here. I kept each pitcher’s leverage at 1.0 to make things even. I didn’t change the CAIRO innings projections at all, even though some of them might be unrealistic. I don’t think Phelps (or Noesi or maybe even Brackman) will get that many innings and I don’t think Garcia will get that few. I’m also assuming in this that every inning pitched by these guys is as a starting pitcher, which may not be likely for the “prospect trio” and Sergio Mitre. That said, some of this stuff isn’t THAT far out of the realm of possibility, so let’s get to the results.

These projections give us 1025 innings pitched by Yankee starters, in which they rack up 12.9 WAR. Both of those numbers beat the 2010 version of Yankee starting pitching. We must note that the 2011 projection includes one more pitcher than the 2010 “rotation” did so I adjusted this with a rough WAR/IP calculation. The 2010 starters were worth 0.0109 WAR/IP and the 2011 rotation projects to be worth 0.0126 WAR/IP.

The rotation was 11th in the American League in fWAR by starters in 2010 and if we plug the projected 2011 rotation into that list, it would have the 9th best SP fWAR in the AL. That’s still below the league median, but, again, better than what the team had in 2010.

We’ve been very doom-and-gloom about the possible rotation for 2011, but these numbers (that, yes, we should take with a grain of salt because they’re projections), should help allay our fears just a little bit. While it seems the 2011 rotation might not quite be league average as a whole, it could still be a two win improvement from 2010. With the added bullpen strength and the still strong lineup, the Yankees look like they’ll have a formidable team in 2011.

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Looking at Ivan Nova

Posted by EJ Fagan at 1:01 pm 4 Responses »
Jan 192011

Ivan Nova, Right Handed Pitcher
Ranked 8th Best Yankee Prospect

Year Age Tm ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2006 19 Yankees 2.72 10 5 43.0 36 13 13 5 7 36 1.000 7.5 1.0 1.5 7.5 5.14
2007 20 Charleston 4.98 21 21 99.1 121 64 55 8 31 54 1.530 11.0 0.7 2.8 4.9 1.74
2008 21 Tampa 4.36 26 24 148.2 168 81 72 6 46 109 1.439 10.2 0.4 2.8 6.6 2.37
2009 22 2 Teams 3.68 24 24 139.1 137 66 57 7 59 90 1.407 8.8 0.5 3.8 5.8 1.53
2009 22 Trenton 2.36 12 12 72.1 65 27 19 3 31 47 1.327 8.1 0.4 3.9 5.8 1.52
2009 22 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 5.10 12 12 67.0 72 39 38 4 28 43 1.493 9.7 0.5 3.8 5.8 1.54
2010 23 Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 2.86 23 23 145.0 135 50 46 10 48 115 1.262 8.4 0.6 3.0 7.1 2.40
5 Seasons 3.80 104 97 575.1 597 274 243 36 191 404 1.370 9.3 0.6 3.0 6.3 2.12
AAA (2 seasons) 3.57 35 35 212.0 207 89 84 14 76 158 1.335 8.8 0.6 3.2 6.7 2.08
A (1 season) 4.98 21 21 99.1 121 64 55 8 31 54 1.530 11.0 0.7 2.8 4.9 1.74
AA (1 season) 2.36 12 12 72.1 65 27 19 3 31 47 1.327 8.1 0.4 3.9 5.8 1.52
Rk (1 season) 2.72 10 5 43.0 36 13 13 5 7 36 1.000 7.5 1.0 1.5 7.5 5.14
A+ (1 season) 4.36 26 24 148.2 168 81 72 6 46 109 1.439 10.2 0.4 2.8 6.6 2.37

MLB

Year Age Tm ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 23 NYY 4.50 10 7 42.0 44 22 21 4 17 2 26 96 1.452 9.4 0.9 3.6 5.6 1.53
1 Season 4.50 10 7 42.0 44 22 21 4 17 2 26 96 1.452 9.4 0.9 3.6 5.6 1.53
162 Game Avg. 4.50 40 28 168 176 88 84 16 68 8 104 96 1.452 9.4 0.9 3.6 5.6 1.53

At this point, Ivan Nova is probably New York’s #4 starter. That’s important because even if the Yankees go out and sign a reclamation project or innings eater (or Andy Pettitte), Nova will still probably edge out Sergio Mitre in the Yankee rotation. He will be an important piece of the 2011 team. I’ve never been Ivan Nova’s biggest fan, but I finally caved in and ranked him the #8 overall prospect in the Yankee organization. I acknowledge the two major things that Nova brings to the table: he is a healthy, MLB-ready starting pitcher, and he’s got the ability to get hitters out fairly consistently. There’s a lot of value there – Nova’s a pretty sure bet to hang around the majors in some capacity for some time. I think (mainly due to his very strong fastball) that he’s got a better than average chance of being a mid-4s ERA type pitcher, who pitches a decent number of innings while keeping the team in the game. I recently compared him to Joe Blanton in that regard.

Unlike Blanton, who mixes his pitches, Ivan Nova mostly relies on a really good fastball to get hitters out. It averaged 93 mph last season according to Fangraphs, spiking as high as 97. Both his 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs move pretty well, and when Nova is doing well he generates ground balls from that movement. He also throws a curveball – a robust 25% of the time last season – even if its fairly lackluster. He doesn’t get any serious number of strikeouts from it, and doesn’t really throw it for strikes much. Nova’s bread and butter will always be throwing hard, moving fastballs, and at this point there’s not much hope of changing that. However, I think that marginal improvements in control, his curveball, and possibly his changeup could have big impacts on his performance.

I think that small improvements can have a big impact for one main reason: Nova’s biggest problem is that he threw too many pitches in the major leagues. In a season where he averaged 6.3 innings per start at Triple-A, Nova failed to pitch 6 innings in 6 of 7 starts. He ran pitch counts up high in part because he was afraid to throw strikes to batters – something that he only sometimes struggled with in the minor leagues. Despite not striking out a ton of batters, Nova has always been generally hard to hit hard. If he can grow a little more efficient, he’ll give up 3 or 4 runs a game, but if he pitches into the 7th inning no one will notice too much.

If Nova can find a way to pitch 6 innings per start on average, he should be able to put up something like 200 innings (Shouldn’t be too hard – he pitched 187 in 2010) and a 4.40-4.70 ERA per season. That’s valuable. He’d be the best starter on the Royals right now, and better than AJ Burnett was last season. If he’s a little worse than that, the Yankees may want to consider a bullpen conversion. He’s a flame thrower, and his fastball would play better in short stints. Still, we’re not anywhere near that point right now. The Yankees have a cheap, young, flexible option who has never had a hint of health issues right now ready to pitch in the major leagues.

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Rethinking Ivan Nova's Ceiling

Posted by Steve S. at 10:00 am 13 Responses »
Jan 162011

Could Nova reinvent himself...

... into a sinkerballer like Wang?

This is something I’ve been kicking around the past few days. The more I delve into Ivan Nova’s prospect profile, the more he reminds me of former Yankee Chien Ming Wang. Both had uninspiring careers in the minors, and seemed to develop late. Wang’s breakout season was at age 24 in 2004, and Nova’s came in 2010 at age 23, though it should be noted Wang missed a season due to shoulder surgery. But its the scouting reports that really got me thinking. Here’s what our own Sean P said about him over at Pending Pinstripes before last year:

Nova has a report that would make you think he would be an upper echelon type prospect. But as we’ve seen, he’s clearly not. His fastball sits 91-94 and is a plus offering due to his ability to maintain velocity throughout his starts. He also has a sinking fastball he’ll throw as well that had good movement down in the zone that he can command well and get on top of due to his size. His changeup and curveball are also plus offerings, his changeup probably more so than the curve. He has good fade and maintains solid arm action on the change up, but the curveball can be inconsistent and flattens out from time to time. Nova doesn’t always use his stuff effectively however as mentioned earlier. He doesn’t pitch aggressively and fails to put away hitters partly because he avoids pitching inside.

Both of those same things could also be said about Chien Ming Wang. Wang’s fastball averaged 92.3 MPH from 2007-09, while Nova’s averaged 92.9 MPH last year. The key to be a sinkerballer is having good depth on the fastball, and Fangraphs Vertical Movement chart has Wang at +5.4 for his career, and Nova at +6.7 last year. Both Wang and Nova would be categorized as ground ball pitchers, with Wang being an extreme version at 60.1% over the course of his 5 year career. Nova was at 51.4% last year, but I think Nova could improve upon that rate if he features the 2 seamer more often, which is a simple matter of game calling between him and his catcher.

Neither pitcher had great stats in minors, though Wang’s stats are muddied by coming back from injury whereas Ivan Nova was relatively healthy. Nova struck out 6.3/9 in the minors, while Wang struck out 7.2/9. In neither case would you expect that to translate well to the majors facing advanced hitters. Wang allowed 9.0 H/9 while Nova allowed 9.3. Both pitchers kept the ball in the yard as amateurs, with Nova posting a 0.6 HR/9 and Wang coming in at 0.4. The one area where Wang really separated himself from Nova in the minors is his walk rate. Wang had a 2.0 BB/9 in the minors and a 3.44 SO/BB rate, while Nova posted a 3.0 BB/9 in the minors and a 2.2 SO/BB rate. Biggest knock on Nova is lack of aggressiveness and failing to pitch inside, but again the same could be said of Wang. Nova will need to work a bit more in the strike zone at the MLB level if he hopes to resemble Wang’s success, but aggressiveness will be less of an issue if his goal is to generate ground balls instead of trying to miss bats.

There are also similarities in their delivery. Here’s what RABs Mike Axisa said about Nova last year:

Nova has proven to be very durable in recent years, which stems from his fluid and easily repeatable delivery. However, that delivery is a double-edged sword. It allows him to command the ball to both sides of the plate, but at the same time he completely lacks deception, so hitters get a good look at the ball before he releases it

Wang was also known for his smooth, fluid delivery which also lacked deception. But sinkerballers don’t need deception, if you locate the pitch below the belt all a batter can do is beat it into the ground. So even if they know whats coming, it really doesn’t matter.

Most prospect watchers will look at a pitcher’s results in the minors and come up with a projection. But we sometimes forget the minors are there to develop pitchers, or attempt to do so. While it’s always preferable to miss bats, Nova has the skill set to be a nice, mid to back of the rotation sinkerballer who eats loads of innings, and that’s valuable. He can effectively limit the long ball and use 2 seam fastball to generate hard, double play ground balls and the change to generate weak ones. As we saw with Wang, you can win a lot of games pitching that way on a team like the Yanks.

NOTE-The China Post is reporting Wang is on target to open the season pitching for the Nationals this season. Good for him, and I’ll be rooting for him and following his results on the 2011 edition of Keeping up with the ex-Yanks.

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Verducci: Hughes and Nova Are Injury Risks

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Jan 132011

Tom Verducci released his “Verducci Effect” candidates this week, and Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova made the list. For those who are unfamiliar, Verducci has concluded that pitchers 25 years old and younger who see a workload jump of at least 30 innings in one season are at greater risk of injury than their peers. As I have said before, I do not find his conclusions compelling, for the following reasons:

1) His premise is obvious, and as Verducci himself notes, clubs are aware of it. The idea that overworking young pitchers can lead to injuries down the road is not a Tom Verducci original. Medical professionals have been making similar suggestions for years, and teams like the Yankees have paid attention. The idea that Verducci’s 30 IP threshold should be applied indiscriminately to all pitchers is facially ridiculous, and it seems obvious that the club has attempted to implement a system for establishing “safe” limits tailored to each pitcher. They clearly had a target for Hughes this season and Joba in 2009, and acted accordingly. As such, I see no real reason to be concerned about Phil’s workload. This is not an appeal to authority or a suggestion that the Yankees are always right, simply an acknowledgement that Verducci’s finding are far from an exact science (which he concedes), which leads me to my second point.

2) His findings are anecdotal. While he takes an accounting of his results each year, the reality is that his study is generally incomplete in terms of evidence. David Gassko tested the premise and found that the data did not support, and may have been in conflict with, Verducci’s findings. Michael Salfino of SNY did a similar takedown two years ago, listing a number of issues with the study, including its ignorance of the concept of regression to the mean.

3) One major issue with the study is the inherent selection bias created by looking at pitchers with a large innings increase. Generally, a jump of that sort would be caused by one of two things: either an unexpected jump in performance which dictates increased use of the player, OR the player had injuries in prior seasons and was unable to build up innings properly. Both causes suggest that the player is more likely than others to see either some regression or a recurrence of injury.

What do you think of the Verducci Effect?

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No Pettitte Shouldn't Mean No Patience

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 132011

As you’ve probably heard, Andy Pettitte will not be pitching in 2011 (glove slap RAB). The first thing that ran through your head was probably a stream of expletives. Now, more than any time this offseason, we want the Yankees to make a move. Sign someone. Trade for someone. Do SOMETHING to help the rotation.

I can’t help but be on board with that mentality, but at the same time, we need to realize that the options out there are not all that wonderful. With each player out there–Jeff Francis, Justin Duchscherer, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia–there is a good amount of risk. Francis and Duke are health concerns; Bonderman and Garcia are performance concerns. The White Sox looked to be shopping starters earlier in the Hot Stove Season, but we’ve heard nothing on that since, and now it seems unlikely that they will move a starter. Just about all other trade markets have been silent. Even if we don’t want to be patient, we have to be.

The Yankee Front Office–in which I have a lot of faith–likely recognizes the noticeable absence of good starting pitching options. They have also likely taken note of the relief pitching market, which has a stunningly similar lack of effective options (this isn’t to say that there aren’t good relief pitchers out there who could help the Yankees; it’s only to say that other things like cost and compensation will get in the way.). But on the other hand, the Yankee Front Office probably realizes that a rotation that is two fifths Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre isn’t all that great and probably won’t perform incredibly in the A.L. East. And while it’s likely that A.J. Burnett improves from his 2010 season, the only thing we can predict from his right arm is unpredictability. It looks like, though, we’ll have to deal with that rotation for at least some portion of the 2011 season.

As always, and as we all should, I have complete confidence in CC Sabathia. Phil Hughes, with even more experience under his belt, should improve. A.J. Burnett’s 2011 can’t possibly be worse than 2010. Ivan Nova does have some upside, no matter how small, but there’s still some there. Sergio Mitre…well…he gets ground balls? Mitre is really the only one I’m uncomfortable with. Luckily, replacing him at some point during the season shouldn’t be too hard. Like I said, there are some buy low options on the free agent market and at any point during the season, the trade market could develop and the Yankees could snag someone.

It’s not going to be easy, but we need to be steadfast in sticking with the patient outlook we’ve all taken on in the last few months. I’d be willing to bet that the Yankee starting five in October is not the one we’re looking at right now.

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Envisioning Bullpen Roles

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 2 Responses »
Jan 072011

Last night in the River Avenue Blues open thread, a commenter asked what the Yankees would plan to do without Kerry Wood as the definite set-up man. I wanted the Yankees to bring back Wood at the right price, but he ended up taking a sweetheart deal to go pitch for the Cubs. However, as I responded in the thread, the Yankees will be just fine in the bullpen, even without Wood.

I fully expect David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain to do the set up job just fine. They combined for over 132 innings last year and could likely both handle a moderate inning increase–think about 10-15 innings between the two of them. That could apply more to Robertson, who pitched 61.1 innings last year. Chamberlain’s total was pretty high at 71.2. In fact, that total was the 7th highest among all American League relievers.

Chamberlain’s ERA wasn’t pretty in 2010, but there are indicators that 2011 will be better. Chamberlain’s K/9 was a shade under 10 at 9.67 and his 2.76 BB/9 is more than fine. He also dropped her his HR/9 to 0.75. The 45.6 GB% is also encouraging, and I would expect that .342 BABIP to drop. His 66.6% strand rate was rather low, too. I think we can count on a better strand rate in 2011.

Robertson, as usual, still had the strikeouts working for him (10.42 per nine). The walks were still there for him at 4.84 BB/9, but he upped his GB% to just under 40% and also dropped his HR/9 to 0.73. There aren’t any apparent red flags for Robertson, and I’m confident in his ability to repeat 2010, or at least come close to it. If Chamberlain can repeat everything from 2010, while lowering his ERA, he and Robertson will make up a formidable set-up combination. They won’t have to bear the load alone. And, while both Joba and D-Rob can pitch well enough against lefties, they will be helped by lefty specialists Boone Logan and Pedro Feliciano. The four of those pitchers can make up a solid bridge to Mowhere.

That doesn’t mean, though, that the Yankees shouldn’t at least think about adding another reliever. I’ve argued for Brian Fuentes, but he wants to close and may want a relatively long term deal. Jon Rauch is also a possibility , but there’s been no market on him, so we have no idea what it will take to get him. I think Rauch could come relatively cheaply and he would be a welcomed addition.

What roles we may not be sure of are the non-late inning roles. The long relief role seems absolutely wide open. It could be someone out of the organization right now; it could be Sergio Mitre; it could be Ivan Nova. IT COULD BE MARK PRIOR! (No, no it couldn’t. Sigh.) Like it usually is, I think this role–along with the non-Mo/Joba/Robertson/Feliciano/Logan roles–will be rather fluid, like it tends to be each and every year.

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With Capuano off market, Francis becomes more attractive

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm No Responses »
Jan 042011

The Mets made a nice move yesterday, signing lefty Chris Capuano to a $1.5MM deal (along with Taylor Buchholz). With those two off of the market–as well as Brandon Webb–the only real buy low options at this point are Chris Young and Jeff Francis. Moshe laid out a great case for Francis last month and after reviewing that, and perusing the current market, he is definitely the best option out there.

As a lefty, Francis has a natural advantage over the right handed Young. And, despite missing all of 2009, Francis still pitched more Major League innings in 2010 (104.1) than Chris Young did in 2009 and 2010 combined (96.0). Young’s 2009 and 2010 seasons were also rife with control issues: 4.7 BB/9 and 5.0 BB/9 respectively, with K/9 marks of 5.9 and 6.8. There is also something very concerning about Young.

In 2010, Young averaged just 84.7 MPH on his fastball in 2010. That is most definitely not a good sign. His control hasn’t been there in the last two years (also had a 4.2 BB/9 in ’08) and he’s lost his strikeout numbers, as well as his stuff. There is always a chance he could regain his stuff, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. We could be looking at another case of Javier Vazquez and the Nothingball.

I was pretty ambivalent about Francis in the last few weeks, but with the options dwindling, I think he’s worth taking a flier on. The market dictates a one year deal for around $1MM or less, and I’d definitely be okay with that. Francis would likely be able to beat out whoever for the 4th/5th starter race and would probably be more successful than Sergio Mitre in the rotation.

For what it’s worth, Bill James projects Francis to throw 87 innings in 2011 at a 4.25 FIP. That IP total is definitely incredibly conservative, especially considering Francis pitched over 100 innings in 2010. That 4.25 FIP, though, is something more than acceptable out of a 4th/5th starter. We have to note, though, that the FIP projection is not adjusted for playing in the A.L. or at Yankee Stadium III. Having pitched in Coors Field, however, Francis has experience pitching in a hitter’s park. He’s also adjusted his batted ball profile over the last few years. He upped his GB% from 43.6 to 47.0 in 2010, while dropping his FB% from 36.1 to 32.2%, the third straight season with a drop in FB%. 2010 also saw Francis put up a 106 tRA+ as a starter, so the contact he was giving up was weaker than league average by six percent.

Part of the possibility of Jeff Francis rests on Andy Pettitte. If Andy Pettitte changes his apparent course and decides not to retire, the need for Francis decreases and the Yankees could use Ivan Nova as the fifth starter instead of the fourth starter. This would hardly be unacceptable and if the Yankees decided to stand pat with a hypothetical rotation of Sabathia/Hughes/Pettitte/Burnett/Nova, I’d be fine. But, I think signing Jeff Francis would still be a wise move. At the very least, it would give the Yankees another arm to look at in Spring Training. The loser of that competition could also be transferred to the bullpen to give the Yankees another option at long reliever, which is something I prefer. No matter what happens with Andy Pettitte, the Yankees should try and sign Jeff Francis.

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What would a two-slot spring training rotation battle look like?

Posted by EJ Fagan at 2:00 pm 12 Responses »
Dec 212010

If Andy Pettitte does not resign, the Yankees are currently set up to enter spring training with two open rotation spots. I don’t know about you, but I can’t remember that ever being the case on the modern Yankees. Even in 2008, when the Yankees attempted to use Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and later Joba Chamberlain all in the rotation, the plan was set from the start. If the Yankees decide to go into spring training with their current roster, it’ll really be a rare sight, and pretty interesting too from an objective standpoint.

Luckily for the Yankees, the team does have a lot of options. An exhaustive list at this point probably includes Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Sergio Mitre, Joba Chamberlain, D.J. Mitchell, Andrew Brackman, Dellin Betances, Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, and Romulo Sanchez, plus whatever minor league contracts the Yankees bring in to audition.

Right off the bat, I think the Yankees will value some stability by immediately promising one job to Ivan Nova. This would allow him to relax in spring training a little bit and work on his game, instead of having to endure the pressure of a competition. You can pass your own judgment on whether or not pressure is good for a young pitcher – I think the team should press him. Regardless, Ivan Nova is probably the best “ready-now” pitcher on the roster. He’s got two great things going for him – a superb 2.86 ERA in 146 Triple-A innings plus a solid MLB debut with a 4.50 ERA in 42 innings. He’s got the workload and mental icebreaking down. Nova’s problem is that he’s just not all that great of a pitcher. He has the stuff, and should be a MLB starter, but has poor K/BB numbers all around. He’s going to allow a lot of baserunners, which means a lot of runs. Still, he’ll get his outs, and shouldn’t be overexposed in the majors. The Yankees couldn’t really ask for much better right now.

Once we get to the competition, I think that the Yankees will only give a real serious chance at making the rotation to Phelps, Brackman and Mitre, plus Joba if they decide to go that route. They’ll do their due diligence on Sanchez and Mitchell, but neither are particularly promising as starters in the majors. Warren, Betances, and Noesi offer higher-ceiling options than Phelps and Mitre, but all could definitely benefit from some more time. The Yankees do not need their opening day starters to last the whole season, and Noesi in particular could very well be ready by the time its apparent that one of the MLB guys isn’t working out. If spring training is really kind to them and the Yankees are feeling pretty adventurous, maybe they get a shot. Just don’t bet the farm on it.

Phelps should be the favorite of this group. He has the potential to be a lot better than Mitre, but is a little more ready than Brackman. He pitched a robust 158 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, with a strong 3.92 K/BB ratio. He’s got solid enough stuff with a 91-93 mph fastball and a good slider, plus oodles of polish. He’s no ace, but Phelps definitely has the potential to stick in the back of the rotation on a team like the Yankees. You could see him pitching 200 innings with a 4.50 ERA, which we would take I think. Brackman, on the other hand, is the opposite kind of prospect. He had a fairly strong season, but topped out pitching 80 2/3 innings at Double-A. We all know about how good he can be. If he shows up to spring training looking like the good Brackman – in shape and all together mechanically – I think the Yankees will strongly consider him. But that needs to happen first. Sergio Mitre is Sergio Mitre. You know what he brings to the table – not a whole lot, but he’ll go out and pitch every 5th day.

Its important to remember what the Yankees are seeking to replace. Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez combined to pitch 286 innings for the Yankees with a combined ERA of 4.40. That’s what the Yankees should shoot for. Furthermore, the Yankees can count on some kind of mid-season reinforcement coming from Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, Dellin Betances, Manuel Banuelos, Brackman, etc, plus the trade market. I really don’t think this picture is all that bleak for the Yankees. Yeah, it might be painful to watch some rookies struggle at first, but it was just as painful to watch the Vazquez/Moseley/et al crew try and hold down the bottom part of the rotation this year. Cashman might not be pulling a Bubba Crosby here, folks. The truth is that Phelps and Nova are relatively solid, if unspectacular, major league options, and the rest of the crew represent high-ceiling potential at mid-season (or earlier in Brackman’s case).

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Imagining the Yanks without Lee

Posted by Steve S. at 8:03 am 58 Responses »
Dec 112010

The waiting game being played out between Cliff Lee and the Yankees and Rangers has to be disconcerting to most Yankee fans by now. Recent reports during the winter meetings that he and/or his agent met with the Texas Rangers brass 4 times, and the Yanks only twice, adds further fuel to the fire that he’s leaning toward Texas, or at least giving them every opportunity to come up with an offer he can live with.

To paraphrase the great Football coach Vince Lombardi, Cliff Lee isn’t everything, he’s the only thing. I know that some fans think that the Yanks, with their enormous resources, will find someone comparable who can take the ball every 5th day and give the team a chance to win. Now of course they’ll find somebody, they’re not going to forfeit every 5th game in 2011. You can always find a Chad Gaudin-type floating around in free agency or the waiver wires. Maybe there’s a mid-rotation starter out there to be had via trade from a team like the White Sox, whose GM Kenny Williams is always up for a deal. But the notion that it will be someone comparable to Cliff Lee, someone with top of the rotation ability, is simply unfounded. Or in the case of Zach Grienke, I would argue ill conceived.

With this in mind, I wanted to take a minute to ponder what the Yankee rotation would look like without Lee. As things stand currently, that would mean Ivan Nova would be the Yankee #5 starter with CC, Burnett, Hughes and Pettitte filling out the starting five. The Yanks generally don’t like to enter a season barely having 5 starters, which is what this rotation would represent. The team would look better if they pick up a back of the rotation type on a 1 year deal, so if things go south they can always cut bait around mid-season. Looking at the list of available free agent starters they would be choosing from pitchers such as Bruce Chen, Jeff Francis, Dave Bush, Freddy Garcia, Brian Burres, Rodrigo Lopez, Jeff Suppan, or Kevin Millwood. Those are the healthy guys, for a more speculative bet on upside you have your choice of Erik Bedard, Brandon Webb, Brad Penny, Justin Duchscherer, Chien-Ming Wang, Chris Young, and Ben Sheets. We don’t even need to discuss Carl Pavano. I have trouble making a case for anything above a minor league invite or a low base incentive-laden deal for any pitcher on that list. Given the dearth of available starters and the sky-high prices free agents are going for this year, any of the guys with even a hint of ability on that list will command more than that.  

Further complicating matters is that, as we all know, Andy Pettitte is currently leaning towards retirement. We can all hope that if the Yankee situation is desperate enough, Andy will come in riding on a white horse and save the day. But we can’t count on that. Living with Ivan Nova as your #5 is one thing, but penciling him in as your #4 and filling in with someone from that above list or the next guy on the Yankee depth chart (David Phelps or Hector Noesi) is something they simply can’t live with. Not in the AL East, not with the Red Sox making the upgrades they already have this off season. If Andy retires, I have to think the Yanks would revisit Joba Chamberlain in the starting rotation. They may even let him and Nova battle things out in spring training if just the 5th spot is open. That’s what they did with him and Hughes this past spring, and Ivan Nova has never been viewed by prospect watchers as having the ability of Phil. Despite his sub-par 2010 campaign, Joba still has more upside as a starter than Nova, who lacks a true swing and miss pitch and relies mostly on his heavy, sinking fastball. We know it’s not their preference, but if Andy bows out and they come in second in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, I think revisiting Joba the starter becomes unavoidable as things stand currently.

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