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Getting Creative?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Feb 092011

Is creative just another word for desperate? In this case, I think not. Yesterday, there was a post on MLBTR about three things the Yankees are, apparently, not doing or haven’t done. We’re winding down the Hot Stove season and ideas are stretching pretty thin. So, I’m going to look and see if there are anyways those moves could make sense. Just bear with me here since the truth and the possible are being stretched very far.

The first item on the MLBTR docket was Carlos Delgado. It would seem, via Joel Sherman, that the Yankees have no interest in Delgado, and with good reason. He didn’t play at all in 2010, though he was good in 2009 when he last played for the Mets. There’s basically one way Delgado could make an impact on the Yankees, and it’s a nightmare scenario. It would involve Russell Martin being injured and/or ineffective, Francisco Cervelli being either of those things, and Jorge Posada forced into catching every day with Jesus Montero, for some reason, not being ready to take the symbolic reins behind the plate. Then and only then would Delgado make sense for the Yankees. He’d slot nicely into the DH spot and his lefty swing would be nothing but aided by the short porch in right field. Of course, that scenario is extremely unlikely. If the Yankees somehow wind up relying on Posada to catch rather than DH, I’d imagine they’d first go in house and use Alex Rodriguez as the most-of-the-time DH while searching for someone who’s better on defense to man third each day.

Jarrod Washburn, like the others mentioned (Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon), makes sense on a minor league deal. Hell, signing Ron Guidry to a minor league deal today would almost make sense. Minor league deals carry absolutely no risk. Of course, Mr. Washburn didn’t want a minor league deal. Adding him to the wall throwing fodder for the fifth starter’s spot would be fine with me, I guess, but I just don’t like Washburn at all. He’s on my irrational hate list, though he’s not as high as Aaron Hill or Ian Kinsler. I guess he’d be second on the pitcher’s list, behind Sergio Mitre. Though it’s worth noting that there are rational reasons to hate both players. But I digress…Imagining a Washburn-on-Yankees scenario is pretty easy, just because of the state of the rotation. Of course, he didn’t pitch at all in 2010, so that’s totally undesirable. Despite that, Marcel projects him to a 4.40 FIP (career 4.60) in 77 innings. Using our trusty WAR spreadsheet, that would give us 1.0 WAR. That’s worth taking a shot on. So, if Washburn changes his mind about accepting a minor league deal, he could be worth a shot.

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Garcia in on Minor League Deal

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 9:27 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 312011

Via Jerry Crasnick of ESPN, the Yankees have reached an agreement with Freddy Garcia on a Minor League deal. Garcia marks the third formerly successful Major League pitcher the Yankees have signed to a minor league deal this year, along with Mark Prior and Bartolo Colon.

Like any Minor League deal, it’s hard to argue with this. It does nothing but add depth and give the Yankees insurance for Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, and would allow the Yankees to give their pitching prospects more time to get Major League ready in case of an injury or ineffectiveness.

In 2010, Garcia threw 157 innings with the White Sox to a 4.64 ERA with a 4.77 FIP and 4.59 xFIP. He struck out 5.10 per nine, while walking just 2.58. His major problem was giving up 1.32 HR/9; that’s been a theme for Garcia’s career: 1.09 HR/9, though he’s been at 1.3 HR/9 or above in four of the last five years going back to 2006.

Time to throw the Garcia spaghetti against the way and see what sticks.

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A Tale of One Hot Stove Season

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Jan 312011

It was the best of times. It was the worst of times. (Writer’s Note: I may not have come up with that line on my own)

As the Hot Stove season winds to a close and pitchers and catchers start reporting and Spring Training begins, we’re going to see a lot of articles grading the Yankees’ offseason. If I’m a good predictor, which I think I can be at times, many of these columns are going to be negative in nature. The case? They’re going to probably call the Yankee offseason a failure because they didn’t land Cliff Lee. They didn’t land Jayson Werth. They didn’t land Carl Crawford. They didn’t trade for Zack Greinke.

I’m going to put myself in a camp that may be a little lonesome: the 2010-2011 Hot Stove Season was a success for the New York Yankees. While I am not a fan of the Rafael Soriano contract, it does strengthen the team for 2011. The other deals the Yankees made don’t burden future payroll and helped fill needs the Yankees had.

Pedro Feliciano gives the Yankees a second lefty in the bullpen and can provide insurance in case Boone Logan reverts to pre-demotion form. Andruw Jones gives the Yankees a competent fourth outfielder not only at the plate, but also in the field.

The team also filled out some minor league pitching depth, headlined by the signings of Mark Prior and Bartolo Colon. Should we have expectations for either one of these guys at the Major League level? Of course not. But that’s the point of minor league deals: throw some stuff at the wall and see what sticks.

The Rafael Soriano signing was a big splash, but the overall tone of this offseason has been rather low key. There were times of turmoil and head scratching like there are no matter what month the baseball calender shows. Still, the 2011 Yankees are likely to be just as good as the 2010 team, which was just two wins away from the World Series.

This Hot Stove season did not see the Yankees land the biggest target out there, but it also saw them improve the team in meaningful ways.

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Patience Persists

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 1 Response »
Jan 282011

Chad Jennings had an article chock full of quotes from Brian Cashman yesterday and those quotes furthered the patience mantra we’ve been hearing all season.

Though the Yankee general manager called the team “an unfinished product”, he didn’t indicate that he was going to make any hasty moves.

• Cashman’s quick, to-the-point evaluation of his current situation: “I need starting pitching,” he said. “That’s what I need.”

Snip

• Why hasn’t Cashman added a reliable starting pitcher? “If I could do business and fill my rotation, I’d do it right now” Cashman said. “I just don’t like the choices.”

I cannot stress how great it is to hear him say that. While we want the Yankees to get a starter, Cashman is indicating that the options just aren’t there in his eyes. We may think it simple to offer Justin Duchscherer a low base, incentive laden contract, but it’s clearly not that simple. The Yankees may not like his stuff. They may not like his medicals. They may think the move not worth it. At times like this, it is better to make no moves than to make hasty moves.

The prosaic cliche (is that repetitive?) “haste makes waste” definitely applies here. While the Yankees are a team that can absorb financial hits, that doesn’t mean they should throw money at potentially low upside players and risk setting the team back in the beginning of the season. It’s one thing to take a risk on an outfielder like Andruw Jones (or Randy Winn for that matter), but it’s another to do so for a pitcher who’s essentially guaranteed to appear on the field enough to impact the team.

Brian Cashman is right to be publicly patient. At the same time, I think highly enough of Brian Cashman to believe that behind the scenes, he is working with a controlled fury, searching for the right pieces to finish the product that is the 2011 New York Yankees roster.

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The What If 5th Starter Candidates

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Jan 252011

At this point in the Hot Stove season, the Yankees are pretty much set. They could still add a starter for some rotation depth or bring some position players in in minor league deals to add depth in AAA, but for the most part, the team on paper now is probably going to be the team on Opening Day. Since the real options for the fifth starter’s spot are so grim, I thought it’d be a fun–if not slightly sadistic/masochistic–exercise to go over the options that were once a possibility, but aren’t any more. This won’t include guys like Cliff Lee or Andy Pettitte who would just push others (read: Ivan Nova) back to the fourth/fifth spots.

The first one that comes to mind is Joba Chamberlain. This path is worn, so we won’t walk down it again. By know, you know where I stand on this.

Alfredo Aceves, without back injury, would definitely be up for this spot. The jack-of-all-trades was a starter in Mexico and the minors and had a wide array of pitches at his disposal. This may’ve been a stretch after missing pretty much all of 2010 but I think hew would’ve been worth the try; he’s definitely a better option than Mitre.

If not for injuries, we could be talking about Alan Horne in a rotation spot. He was great in 2007 with the Thunder but just couldn’t stay healthy or effective after that. Horne didn’t pitch at all in 2010.

Aside from Joba Chamberlain, the most perfect candidate for this spot would’ve been Ian Kennedy. Despite an unceremonious departure from New York, Kennedy still has some upside and definitely passes the Better Than Mitre test. With a 3.80/4.33/4.28 ERA/FIP/xFIP triple slash last year in 194 innings, Kennedy proved he can be at least an average pitcher somewhere in the Majors (2.4 fWAR, 2.7 bWAR). As much as I like Kennedy and would love to have him around, I’d still do the trade that sent him to Arizona and Austin Jackson to Detroit while bringing Curtis Granderson to New York.

The combination of the very cool part of the Hot Stove season–and the desperation to see ANYONE but Sergio Mitre in the fifth spot–has brought us to this…contemplating guys who could’ve helped the team if they were still in the organization. At this point, I have to wonder (like RAB did yesterday) if Mitre really IS the best option out there. The Serg isn’t going to be making much money this season and if he sucks, he can always be relegated back to the long-man spot or he can be let go without much of a financial hit. The Yankees are ready to throw the Sergio Spaghetti to the wall and see what sticks. What’s the worst that happens? He sucks as badly as Javier Vazquez did in 2010 and the Yankees cut him loose. What’s the best that happens? He proves himself worthy as a good groundball guy and the Yankees get some value. I’m not counting on that best case scenario, but considering the costs and the alternatives, I will no longer be irate if the Yankees end up trying it out.

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Yankees to Sign Jones

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 7:44 pm 1 Response »
Jan 202011

Our long national nightmare is over! After a few weeks of speculating and negotiating, the Yankees are set to sign Andruw Jones to a deal. It’s going to pay Jones $2 million in base salary along with a possible $1.2 million that Jones can earn in incentives. The terms for said incentives have not been released.

$2 million is a little more than I thought Jones would get in salary, but not by much; I assumed he’d get about $1.5MM, so I wasn’t too far off. Still, that’s a fine price for Jones, who can play all three outfield spots–though he’s better at the corners at this point–and can hit lefties well. An added bonus is that Jones isn’t completely lost against right handed pitching.

There’s really nothing to dislike about this deal. It’s short term, it’s for small money, and it helps the team on the field immediately. Jones will be used to spell Brett Gardner and/or Curtis Granderson against tough left handers, depending on who needs time off, who’s hitting better against lefties, etc. Welcome to the Bronx, Andruw; we look forward to you donning the pinstripes!

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Cash Considered Carl?!

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 5:00 pm 4 Responses »
Jan 192011

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, the Yankees and Carl Pavano almost had a reunion this offseason.

(Insert outrage here)

Honestly, I can’t find myself too mad about this. Yeah, I know, we’ve seen this movie before and it didn’t have a good beginning, middle, or end. But, that was in the past. Since then, Pavano’s thrown 420.1 innings of healthy ball. In that time span, he’s displayed great control (1.6 BB/9) and has kept a beyond solid 4.03 FIP. If his name wasn’t “Carl Pavano” we all would’ve been on board with signing this guy to be the fifth starter; he definitely passes the “Better-Than-Mitre” test, too.

Look, I know many of you are going to be pissed about this because of what happened in 2004-2008. But, honestly, I can’t find myself getting mad about this. I understand the bad taste many of you still have in your mouths, but as I Tweeted earlier, a GM’s gotta do what a GM’s gotta do. It would’ve been irresponsible for Yankee GM Brian Cashman to not at least look into the idea of re-acquiring Pavano.

At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter that much. Pavano took a guaranteed second year to return to the Minnesota Twins. This more or less came out of no where, and it’s ending no where. Would I have loved Pavano coming back to the Yankees? Maybe not, but that would have more to do with the price–the MLBTR article indicated a high salary deal was discussed–rather than who the pitcher was.

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Don't Even Think About It

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 192011

As you’ve probably heard, the Tigers designated right hander Armando Galarraga for assignment yesterday to make room for anther right hander, Brad Penny.

My first thought was “Wow, I’m surprised they did that.” My second thought? “Sucks to be him.” My third thought? “The Yankees better not even think of signing this guy.” There are probably some people who want to do it, but I just don’t see Galarraga as any sort of good fit. The “Better than Sergio Mitre” bar is a pretty low bar to clear, but I’m not sure Galarraga does.

In his third year with the Tigers, Galarraga’s put up a semi-respectable 4.49 ERA (93 ERA+) in 144.1 innings. Both of those totals are ones for which the Yankees would sign up for to get out of the fifth starter. However, I do not think that Galarraga can put up those numbers again? Why? A bunch of reasons.

Galarraga strikes nobody out. And I mean NOBODY. His K/9 this year was under 5 (4.61). He didn’t walk many in 2010 (3.18/9; 3.52 for his career), but he served up his fair share of homers: 1.31 per nine, and that was actually a drop from the previous year’s 1.50 mark (1.42 career). His FIP? 5.09. His xFIP? 5.44. Those marks look very similar to those from ’09–5.47 and 5.02. His ’09 ERA was 5.64. In 2008, his ERA/FIP/xFIP combo reminds me of his 2010 slash: 3.73/4.88/4.49. In 2010 and 2008, the years in which Galarraga had acceptable ERAs, we see him outperforming his peripherals. EDIT: 11:20 AM: I forgot to mention this: Galarraga also doesn’t get many grounders. His career GB% is 40.4, but that’s buoyed by a 43.5 mark in ’08. In both ’09 (39.9) and ’10 (37.3), he was under 40%. 
Basically, the only positives for Galarraga are that he’s (at least temporarily) available and has decent control. The negatives? No strikeouts, too many home runs, not enough grounders, and crappy peripherals. This is an easy, easy pass–or at least it should be.

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The What If Winter

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 6 Responses »
Jan 172011

There is a good segment of Yankee fans that will look back on this offseason rather unfondly once Spring Training starts. This segment will not be entirely incorrect in subscribing to this line of thinking. Missing out on Cliff Lee was huge and the signing of Rafael Soriano is far from great. Though it would, however, be hard to classify the Soriano signing with the Lee non-signing. There are a few “what ifs” that are worth asking.

1. If the Yankees sign Lee, do they sign Soriano? I’d like to say no, but that’s just because I’m not a fan of the Soriano signing. Not signing Lee made (at least a certain segment of) the Yankees’ front office feel that the bullpen needed to be beefed up due to the rather lacing starting rotation. I don’t subscribe to this theory–as you well know–and losing out on Lee hurt the team in two ways. It left the rotation with a hole and it forced the team to divert a larger portion of resources than the team likely anticipated to the bullpen. Silver lining: the Yankee bullpen is fantastic. If/when they get to it, they’ll be in very, very good hands. Other silver lining: Not signing Lee leaves the Yankees with money to add during the middle of the season if a deal can be made.

2. If Jorge Posada wasn’t either signed through 2011 or relegated to catching, could the Yankees have gotten a better DH? That’s a big possibility. There were some great DH candidates out there this Hot Stove season, headlined by Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, and most of them (especially those two) would’ve been good fits for the middle of the Yankee order. Silver lining: Jorge’s got a great bat and it’s likely to improve without the rigor of catching each and every day. The Yankees are definitely likely to have an above average DH.

What I’m about to write is going to make some people call me a Brian Cashman/Yankee apologist, but I don’t care…

This offseason has not been the nightmare that many are making it out to be. As it’s been said many times, losing out on Cliff Lee sucked. But it did not, and will not, cripple this team. The Soriano signing isn’t great, but it makes the 2011 team at least a little bit better, and the Yankees still have time and resources enough to improve the starting rotation. The Yankees added depth in the bullpen with Soriano and lefty Pedro Feliciano (signing Feliciano definitely accomplishes the ‘sign an LHP’ goal) and added some insurance for Jesus Montero by bringing in veteran Russell Martin. They still need to sign a righty hitting outfielder for the bench, but that appears to be nearing completion . Compared to other offseasons, the Yankees’ splashes have been smaller than usual, but that doesn’t mean they were all bad. The Bombers are still in good shape moving forward and I have every confidence that the team will be improved again in some way by the time Spring Training starts.

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Interest in Jones Growing

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Jan 112011

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees’ interest in Andruw Jones has grown and is now classified as “strong.” Steve S. delved into Jones earlier, so consider this an extension of the case for and/or against Jones.

The MLBTR post mentions that the Yankees want a right handed hitter who can handle left and center field. Can Jones still do that? More or less, yeah.

In 2009, Jones was even against righties (.337 wOBA) and lefties (.336 wOBA). In 2010, there was a more pronounced split, but both numbers were good: .342 vs. RHP and .402 vs. LHP. 2009 is a closer representation of Jones’ platoon numbers, though. His career numbers are .355 vs. LHP and .352 vs. RHP. Andruw’s fielding numbers have been solid, too. So, should the Yankees keep going with this? Should their interest be strong? Yes, it should.

Jones is exactly the type of bench outfielder that the Yankees need. As I noted in the comments section of Steve’s piece, the Yankees have cheap options like Greg Golson and Brandon Laird, but both of those represent extreme unknowns at this point. Golson hasn’t proven that he can hit yet–though to be fair, he hasn’t had much playing time. Laird is essentially an experiment in the outfield, though his bat is a little more advanced. As of right now, I’d pencil in Laird as a starter in Scranton to start the year and Golson to be the fifth outfielder.

It might be money saving to use Golson as the fourth outfielder and it would stick to the omnipresent desire to get “younger and more athletic” but I wouldn’t be comfortable with Golson being the first man off of the bench in the outfield. Jones fits the bill to a “t”. And while I’ve advocated for Scott Hairston in the past, I wouldn’t mind Jones one bit. If this interest is real, the only thing left to do is hammer out the contract details.

Per Baseball-Reference, the White Sox paid Jones $500K in 2010 (with the Dodgers giving Jones $3.2M). Jones did have a strong year–.364 wOBA, 126 wRC+, 1.8 WAR in 328 PA–so a raise would likely be in order. The Yankees signed Randy Winn for $1.1MM to be a bench outfielder and I think a similar deal would be perfect for Jones and the Yankees. It gives Jones a substantial raise, is about market value for bench outfielder, and it would also be cheap enough for the Yankees to eat the contract if Jones absolutely bombs like Winn did. Of course, Scott Boras is Andruw’s agent, so negotiations will likely not be easy, as Boras will be looking to capitalize on Jones’ solid 2010. But with the silence on the market for Jones, I don’t think his camp will have much leverage. This seems like a near perfect scenario.

Some will say that the Yankees need to focus on pitching right now and the Yankees shouldn’t be focusing on bench outfielders right now. Ironically, I’m sure many of these people are the same ones who said Brian Cashman couldn’t “multitask” when trying to sign Cliff Lee. Either way, this is what the Yankees should be doing: plugging small holes for now while waiting for a better scenario to acquire a pitcher. There are no starters worth signing. The Yankees don’t seem interested in signing another reliever (regardless of what Heyman says about them in re: Soriano). There is, however, a perfectly suitable fourth OF option out there in Andruw Jones.

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