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Historical Flotsam And Jetsam: Mantle, Moose, CC

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 13 Responses »
Nov 222010

A few interesting historical and statistical bits of data came to my attention lately, and I thought I would share them:

1) In Steve’s posts on Derek Jeter a few days ago, he compared Jeter to Mickey Mantle, and noted that Mantle’s decline greatly hurt the club in 1965-1968. In an ensuing discussion that took place on GReader, Matt Bouffard of Fack Youk pointed out that Mantle’s decline has become overstated among pundits and Yankees fans. To quote:

Mickey Mantle’s final four seasons:

1965: 2.9 fWAR, 2.0 bWAR, 137 OPS+, .371 wOBA
1966: 3.8 fWAR, 3.7 bWAR, 170 OPS+, .402 wOBA
1967: 4.4 fWAR, 4.1 bWAR, 149 OPS+, .373 wOBA
1968: 3.9 fWAR, 3.6 bWAR, 142 OPS+, .362 wOBA

When I expressed surprise over the high quality of those numbers due to my impression that Mantle had totally fallen off a cliff at the end of his career, Matt had this to say:

I guess the issue of Mantle’s performance depends on your perspective. There’s no doubt it declined, but there’s no way he could continue to put up 6 or 7+ WAR a year, let alone his 10+ WAR seasons, particularly considering the toll that injuries and hard living took on his body. So in that regard he was a shell of his former self.

However, he was still a very much above average to elite ball player. His traditional numbers did take a dive after ’64, but that had far more to do with the second dead ball era than it did with his age, injuries, and decline. Mantle hit a combined .241 over his last two seasons, but the league averages for those two years were just .236 and .230. And he still had so much power and plate discipline that he finished second in the league in walks both years and 5th and 3rd in OBP.

Personally I’m of the opinion that Mantle probably wasn’t quite as great as his OPS+ says he was over those last two years. Plate discipline remains, whether offense is suppressed or not, so I think some metrics overvalue all the walks he took.

It is a testament to Mantle that despite being hobbled by various ailments by the end of his career, he was still able to perform at a high level. If Derek Jeter’s decline looks anything like Mantle’s, his next contract would not be nearly the disaster many are expecting it to be.

2) In a story about Cy Young voting injustices, Cliff Corcoran said the following:

Just ask Mike Mussina, the pitcher most likely to be harmed by that wins-based voting. Mussina should have won the AL award over his teammate Clemens in 2001, but instead ended his career without a Cy Young. For a lesser pitcher that would have been a simple disappointment, but for Mussina, a borderline Hall of Fame candidate, that could prove to be a crucial omission from his resume when he comes up for election in 2014.

My first reaction was to have the 17-year old version of me well up and dispute the claim, remembering the insane 20-1 start to Roger’s season. However, a closer look at the numbers quelled that urge, as Mussina was clearly the better pitcher by almost any available metric, and got a 5th place finish for his efforts.

Clemens: 5.4 WAR, 20-3, 3.51 ERA, 220.1 IP, 213 K, 1.26 WHIP, 0CG, 0SHO
Mussina: 6.5 WAR, 17-11, 3.15 ERA, 228.2 IP, 214 K, 1.07 WHIP, 4CG, 3SHO

That is not even that close. As Corcoran notes, the Yankees scored 5.74 runs per game for Clemens, but just 4.21 runs per game for Mussina. That was the difference between winning the award and first place, and that result will likely hurt Mussina’s Hall of Fame chances. Also, not to horn in on Matt’s grand cause, but go compare the numbers of Mussina and Tom Glavine. Mussina was the better pitcher by most measures, yet Glavine’s willingness to hang around until he reached 300 wins makes him a significantly more likely candidate to be voted in quickly. I think Mussina will get in eventually, but will have to linger on the ballot for a while and get Blyleven-type support before he makes it.

3) CC Sabathia has been really good for quite a long time. You can make the argument that he has been one of the two or three best pitchers in baseball over the last 5 seasons, with quality and durability being the criteria for eligibility for that title. This article by Cliff Corcoran inspired me to go look at the WAR leaderboards for the last 5 seasons. Cliff looked at the AL top 10 in SNLVAR over the last few seasons, while I expanded the look to 5 seasons and top 15 in the two leagues combined.

It turns out that only two pitchers have been in the top 15 in Fangraphs WAR in every season over the last 5 years: Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia. Using BB-Ref WAR, no one makes that list in all 5 seasons, but CC did qualify in 4 seasons (missed in 2009, was 21st). The only other pitcher to qualify in that many seasons? Again, Roy Halladay. While these criteria obviously exclude some of the best pitchers due to either injury, youth, one poor season, or other factors, they do illustrate the consistent excellence that CC has provided.

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Guest Post: Did the 2009 Yankees Produce the Greatest Infield (Plus Catcher) in MLB History? (UPDATED)

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 20 Responses »
Mar 102010


This is a guest post from friend of the blog Jamal Granger. It is a meticulous piece of research and we are proud to be running it here at TYU.

Endless thanks to Eric Seidman of Baseball Prospectus, who devoted his valuable time to supplying with me with the essential data for this post, and introduced me to the wonders of SQL (though, as I begin to immerse myself, I question whether “thanks” is the appropriate term …).

The 1975 Cincinnati Reds were the topic of a recently published novel by celebrated sports journalist Joe Posnanski. In the book, titled The Machine: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, Posnanski “… captures all of the passion and tension, drama and glory of this extraordinary team considered to be one of the greatest ever to take the field,” says Amazon.com; however, based on a recent discussion that Mike Francesa had with his listeners on his radio show – Mike’d Up – about the greatest infield-plus-catcher units in baseball history, I decided to take a statistical look at things and discovered how the ’75 Reds arguably boasted the greatest quintet of players to ever take the baseball diamond.

Using weighted Equivalent Average (EqA), total Equivalent Runs (EqR) and Rally’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) data that dates as far back as 1969 for the former two, a likely indubitable argument can be made that Hall of Famers Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, and All-Stars Dave Concepcion and Pete Rose combined to not only lead their 20 teammates to a 108-win season and a World Series victory over the Boston Red Sox but, statistically, became the greatest infield-plus-catcher unit, or Diamond Unit,  in the past four decades.

While the aforementioned Reds squad may very well be the greatest Diamond Unit in the past forty years, arguments can be made for almost a handful of other teams. If you go by EqA, the 2009 Yankees are the best; EqR says that the 1974 Reds – with third basemen Dan Driessen replacing Pete Rose of the ’75 team – beats the bunch; Rally’s WAR has the ’75 version of The Big Red Machine as the alpha dog since 1969. While your opinions may vastly differ from mine, I say that the 1975 Reds are the top unit because WAR factors in all aspects of a player’s production – which is something that EqA and EqR do not.

By WAR, here is the leader board for the best Diamond Units since 1969:

The Year of the Green Wood Rabbit: The 1975 Cincinnati Reds – Morgan’s Magnificence

The 1975 Cincinnati Reds – led by a 12-win season by second basemen Joe Morgan – hit to the tune of a .305 EqA and 504.9 EqR, and produced a grand total of 29.4 WAR, a full three wins above the next closest quintet, the 1976 Reds. Morgan, posting career highs in batting average (.327), stolen bases (67, tied with his ’73 mark), on-base percentage (.466), weighted Runs Created (138.2) and wOBP (.463), was the near-unanimous winner for the first of consecutive NL MVP awards (Charlie Hustle stole two votes), and actually stole more bases (67) than he struck out (52). Also, not only did Morgan’s .360 EqA and 136.9 EqR pace the majors, the next closest qualifier (at least 300 plate appearances) for EqA was the Royals’ John Mayberry (.329).

Following Morgan’s stupefying campaign, Hall of Fame backstop Johnny Bench produced an astounding 6.5-win season, which, amazingly enough, is just the fourth-highest mark of his career. Bench, a MVP candidate in any other year (well, more on that later), did not produce any career-high marks but was part of a tremendous offensive trio of catchers that included Oakland’s Gene Tenace (.316 EqA and 107.4 EqR; why is he not in the Hall?) and St. Louis’s Ted Simmons (.311 and 106.4; another questionable HOF exclusion). Although Bench’s .308 EqA trailed both Tenace and Simmons for the lead amongst MLB catchers, he trailed only Joe Morgan for the team lead in what made a devastating two-three combo in Cincinnati’s lineup.

Pete Rose put up a .317/.406/.432 vital in 1975 and his 4.4-win season was just a stepping stone in a 12-year period from 1965-1976 that saw him produce at least four wins above replacement in every season but his 3.6-win campaign in 1970. Rose, known for his trademark hustle on the base paths, produce just two runs above replacement in that regard; and it makes you wonder: how much of that storied hustle actually helped his teams instead of just showing a lot of heart? Earning All-Star and Gold Glove (Total Zone had him as ten runs below replacement, but whatever) honors in 1975, Mr. Hustle was the lone National League player earn any first-place votes in the MVP race, as teammate Joe Morgan deservedly ran away with the title.

In terms of his non-offensive production, Dave Concepcion was a stalwart – his base running and defense made him produce to a level approaching that of a league-average player (17 RAR). However, Concepcion came to the plate 762 times in 1975, and as his .257 EqA and 64.5 EqR will tell you, he was a below-average hitter in every sense of the term. The beauty of analysis is that everything is relative, and in Concepcion’s case, he was among a group of shortstops (Larry Bowa of the Phillies; Bert Campaneris of the Athletics; Chris Speier of the Giants) that could lay claim to being the best offensive performers of that position in the non-Toby Harrah (.398 wOBA) division.

After enjoying a six-year stretch from 1968-1973 in which his WAR ranged from 4.2 to 6.7, Tony Perez’s 1975 campaign saw him deliver a 3.1-win campaign as the weakest link of the Machine’s Diamond Unit. Although this was in the midst of quite a prolonged decline phase, Perez’s 83.7 EqR and .288 EqA placed him in the top 33 percentile in an environment that saw the Royals’ Mayberry pace the field with a .329 EqA, 124.9 EqR and a robust .427 wOBA. Continue reading »

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For the Love of the Game

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 6 Responses »
Feb 102010

In case you missed it, on Sunday and Monday, I posted portions of a research paper I wrote as a junior while at UConn (14-9? Really? 14-9? Ugh.) that dealt with the Homeric tradition in contemporary American film, as well as the American cultural landmarks of the “Wild West” and baseball. After re-reading this paper–for what was probably the first time since I handed it in–I got to thinking about baseball, and the Yankees of course, and what it all means to us as Americans, fans, and people.

Norman Rockwell

Like all sports, baseball is first and foremost a game for us. While we take our analysis seriously, we all know that at the root of it all is a game. Some of us played it growing up and some of us continue to play it, in one form or another (hooray for slow pitch softball!) and above all else, it’s fun as hell. No sport can bring a smile to our collective faces quite like baseball can.

This game we watch every day is a part of us. For most of us, it’s been a part of our lives since we were young. Throughout our lives, we’ve always felt an attachment to the game and we always want to be a part of it, whether we’re playing or watching it. Why do we watch? We watch our beloved Yankees and the other 29 teams of Major League Baseball take the field because we want to watch people having fun. We want to watch people play the same game we did when we were kids. We want to watch because something in us makes our bodies feel right when we hear the ball connect with the wood, when we hear the pop of a mitt, when we hear the constant buzz of the audience, and even when we hear some obnoxious home run call. As much as we live inside of baseball–watching every game, checking every box score, taking countless hours to talk about it with friends in person or online–baseball lives inside of us. While it may not be 100% of who we are as people, taking baseball away from us would leave a void that would be hard to fill.

Baseball is our escape. When things aren’t going our way, when we’re feeling down, when we need a pick me up, baseball is always there. In late June of 2006, my grandfather entered the hospital and never came out, dying in late July after a month of slipping in and out of consciousness. While my friends and family were all there to surround me with love and compassion, baseball also played a vital role in my coping with his death. For my grandfather, my father, and myself, baseball was always a connection. No matter what else was going on, there was always time for the three of us to sit around my grandfather’s kitchen table and talk about baseball. After he died, and to this day, I still feel a connection to him every time I sit on the couch and put on YES to watch the Yankees play. Since his death, I’ve only missed a handful of games. Though I’ll never see my grandfather again, but each time the Yankees show themselves on my television set, I feel him.

Almost nine years ago, we as Americans and as human beings were all brought together by one horrific event. Just months later, we were all together again, this time as fans, to watch our Yankees in their fourth straight World Series. Despite the team’s heroics at home, the outcome was not what we expected, nor was it what we wanted, but we were all together then. In a time following great tragedy, we could have broken apart; instead, we came together as one people, one city, and one team. And as it always seemed to be, baseball was at the center of our unity.

As Yankee fans, we’re lucky. By the baseball gods, we’ve been blessed with a team whose ownership and front office does nothing but try and build a winning team every year. Some say that it’s easy for us to be Yankee fans because they win all the time; I agree with them that it’s easy to be a Yankee fan. However, I disagree with the reason why. It’s easy to be a Yankee fan for the same reason it’s easy to be a fan of any team. We’re Yankee fans because baseball is fun and because we love this game. The teams may wear different uniforms, the fans may wear different caps, the stadiums and cities may look different, and the results will never be what everyone wants but one thing brings us all together: the love of the game. No matter where it’s played, no matter who’s playing it, the game is the same: nine men, nine innings, nine positions, ninety feet, sixty feet and six inches, a leather ball, a leather glove, and a wooden bat…it’s baseball.

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A Little History

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 2:48 pm 2 Responses »
May 132009

I can’t believe this is even necessary for Teixeira’s slow start, but the rumblings about his slow start are starting to drive me crazy.  I’m a little surprised that not everyone knows this, but here’s a little tidbit:  pssst… HE DOES THIS EVERY YEAR!!!  I thought it was common knowledge, but as I was leaving my apartment this morning, I heard Brandon Tierny of ESPN radio beginning a segment on Tex’s slow start, so I guess not everyone knows this yet.  Maybe it’s because his name you can’t look him up in baseball reference is so darn hard to spell.   I’ll lay out the stats on Tex as well as for Mariano, if any of you forgot about his history of dead arms.  It’s important to know what you should be worried about and what you shouldn’t.

Tex is the easy one: every year it’s the same, #$R@ing thing.  Last year, he actually wasn’t quite as bad, with a .273 average and a .797 OPS in March/April (compared to .308, .962 overall), but look at some of these other years.:

2007:  .231, .686
2006: he steadily got worse and worse before finally picking it up in July! (June avg of .250, OPS of .728)
2005: .262, .807
2004 (May – he missed most of April/March): .212, .735
2003: .188, .631

This March/April, he went .200, .738 – right in line with his career averages in early months.  He just turned 29, he does this every year.  He’s a stud who will carry us in July-October: bank on it.

Historical fact #2: Mariano Rivera usually goes through a dead arm period either in the beginning of the season or in the middle of the season (usually in July).  The way he’s pitching so far this year are EXACTLY in keeping with his traditional numbers.  Here are the stats:

2008: no dead arm period
2007: April/March ERA: 10.57
2006: April/March ERA: 3.72
2005: No real Dead arm period
2004: July ERA: 3.52
2003: April/March ERA: 9.00; August ERA: 3.38 (with a 1.625 WHIP!)
2002: July ERA: 9.45

Hey, with all these injuries and A.J. Burnett acting like… well, A.J. Burnett, we certainly have lots of legitimate things to be concerned about.  Don’t worry about these two guys.  They’ve done it all before.

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Does Andy Make Your Top 5?

Posted by Tom Gaffney at 2:38 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 302009

When I go out on the street in my fake mustache (Bobby V. style, so I blend into the native populace) and ask the generic, run-of-the-mill Yankee fan who the greatest Yankee starting pitcher ever is, you know what everyone says? “Whitey Ford,” of course. When I ask who’s #2, however, what’s the most common answer? It’s, “uhhhh, ummmm, rrrrrrr, weeeellll.” I tried to look up uhhhh, ummmm, rrrrrrr, weeeellll on baseballreference.com, thinking maybe it was a Japanese pitcher I’ve never heard of, but no dice (k…ugh, I’m full of bad jokes, today). The fact is that, despite the grandest tradition in all of baseball, the Yankees haven’t had that many bona-fide superstar starting pitchers.

So I said to myself, “Self, who knows, maybe Andy Pettitte is the #2 Yankee pitcher of all time? Let’s look at the stats to see. Andy ranks 4th all-time in Yankee wins, so he’s certainly right in the mix. Heck, maybe he could even make a run at #1? A quick look at Whitey’s numbers reaffirm why they call him the Chairman of the Board. He’s #1 in wins, with 236 and an impressive ERA+ of 133 (remember, ERA+ is ERA in comparison to the rest of the league, with 100 being average, thus it accounts for many of the differences between various eras (ERA – era, groan).

Anyhoo, Andy does not compare. His ERA+ of 117 is very respectable, but it falls well short of the Chairman. Andy’s neutralized WHIP of 1.27 is actually better than Whitey’s but that’s really the only category where he has an edge. Could Andy be #2, though, that’s an interesting question. A look at the rest of the top 10 in wins looks like this (from baseballreference.com):

Continue reading »

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