The Yankees missed out on Kansas City Milwaukee right handed Zack Greinke over the weekend, but there are still some other options out there. The headliner–at least that we know of–is Gavin Floyd. Some could’ve considered Ricky Nolasco the best available pitcher, but he is optimistic about being able to stay with the Marlins. That leaves the White Sox’s right hander as the available trade piece.
We’ve heard, though, very little on Floyd of late and the post from MLBTR gives us no indication as to what the White Sox would like in return. Before we discuss that, let’s see if Floyd is someone worth trading for. The first thing we have to decide is whether it makes economic sense to trade for Floyd. To Cot’s we go.
Floyd is signed through the 2012 season, with a $9.5M club option for 2013. Next year he makes $5M and in 2012 he makes $7M. At those prices, Floyd is outrageously affordable. In terms of age, he’ll be 28 when the 2011 season starts.
Now let’s move on to production. Since joining the Chicago rotation full time in 2008, Floyd has averaged 196 innings pitched, a 3.99 ERA (114 ERA+), a 1.285 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 2.45 K/BB. Those are good numbers. He’s given up exactly one homer per nine innings in that stint as well, which is a negative for someone possibly joining the Yankees. However, U.S. Cellular Field had the highest park factor (1.545) for home runs in 2010 (Yankee Stadium had the third highest at 1.420) so that could contribute a bit.
Running counter to that, though, are Floyd’s batted ball numbers. In each of the last three years, he’s lowered his FB% (39.7% in ’08; 33.2 in ’09; 32.1 in ’10) while upping his ground ball numbers (41.2/44.3/49.9). That signals a positive trend in batted ball data, especially considering Yankee Stadium. As a result, his HR/FB numbers have trended downward (11.8/11.2/7.6), as has his tRA, which is a contact based form of keeping track of runs. In short, the harder contact you give up the worse you look. Since just posting Floyd’s raw tRA numbers is unhelpful, I’ll post his tRA+ (think ERA/OPS+) numbers instead, courtesy of StatCorner: 99 in ’08; 112 in ’09; and 114 in ’10.
Over the last few years, Floyd has reduced his fly balls, increased his ground balls, and given up weaker contact. On top of all of those numbers, his FIPs have improved yearly as well: 4.77, 3.77, 3.46. Floyd is doing what pitchers in their mid-late twenties should do: adjusting his game and still producing results.
Gavin Floyd may not be the sexiest name in the world in terms of starting pitching, but he’s a solid pitcher who comes at a pretty cheap monetary cost. In terms of what it would take to get him, I have no idea since I can’t speak intelligently on the needs of the Chicago White Sox. I am, however, confident in saying that any possible deal for Floyd would not need to include Jesus Montero.
