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Duchscherer: I Can Play In New York

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 2 Responses »
Jan 262011

I have pushed for the Yankees to acquire Justin Duchscherer to solidify the back of their rotation on numerous occasions. A few weeks ago, Jerry Crasnick reported that the Yankees were pursuing Duchscherer, but nothing seemed to come of it. As I said at the time, Duch is likely the most talented of the pitchers currently on the market, but has some red flags surrounding him:

The problem with Duke is a variety of health issues that make it difficult to project his performance going forward. He missed time in 2007 due to a hip issue, had some nagging injuries hamper him in 2008, lost the entire 2009 due to an elbow problem, and missed a large chunk of 2010 due to a problem with his other hip. Additionally, he has struggled with depression issues, and he has Irritable Bowel Syndrome, which he feels is exacerbated by the uneven schedule that comes with being in the bullpen. Taken together, the case for Duchscherer reads much like the case for many of the low risk, high reward guys available at this time of the year. When he has pitched, he has been quite successful, but he has had trouble staying on the field.

The depression issues have led some to question his ability to handle New York, and Britt Ghiroli asked him about that issue yesterday. He said:

Free agent Justin Duchscherer, considered one of the best starting pitchers still on the market, said Tuesday evening that physically he feels “pretty much 100 percent” and shot down the notion that his previous depression issues would prevent him from playing in New York.

“I find it funny that people say I can’t pitch in that environment, but I’ve pitched in New York before,” he said. “As far as my mind, I have no problem being anywhere. Physically it’s a matter of what’s the best situation for me.”

He went on to discuss his health and contended that he is “pretty much 100 percent.” I recommend reading the rest of the article. Duch is very honest about his injuries, and rules out going back to the bullpen in 2011. If he signs in New York, he is going to want to start. Hopefully, the Yankees bring him in and give him a shot to seize the 4th or 5th starter slot, as he certainly passes the “better than Mitre” test.

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The Rafael Soriano Question

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Jan 062011

I saw two interesting articles this morning on the Yankees possibly targeting star reliever Rafael Soriano, and I wanted to comment briefly on the issue. The first comes from Mike Silva, who addresses concerns about the fact that Soriano will cost the Yankees a first round draft pick:

Back in March of ’10, Moshe Mandel of the Yankee U recapped a John Sickels conversation with Yankees VP of Baseball Operations Mark Newman. In that column, Newman pointed out how they have relied on the international market, as well as risking lower draft picks on players that are signability issues, because the lower first round picks don’t have the highest ceilings. Knowing that, I don’t think the lack of a first round pick eliminates the Yankees from having a productive draft in 2011.

This is not the Yankees of the turn of the century, who had a shallow farm system and needed to plug a majority of their holes via free agency. They are rich with arms, catchers, and have seen some positional player’s progress over the last couple of years. I do not think they should sacrifice the big league club because of the possibility there is a gem in the 2011 amateur draft.

Silva goes on to suggest that the Yankees target Soriano on a one year deal, as the market on him has seemingly dried up. Joe Pawlikowski over RAB responded to Silva’s post:

The point, made concretely, is that even previously good relievers can collapse at any time. Soriano could certainly help the Yankees if he progresses in the same way as Francisco Cordero, but at that point is he worth the salary and the draft pick? This is where I’d say I lean towards the leave him alone camp. The signing would be risky enough without losing the draft pick. Adding in that factor has me opposing a Soriano acquisition.
Silva’s counterpoint: why not a one-year deal? That would certainly reduce risk. But if Soriano gets hurt, or has terrible luck, as we’ve seen with a number of relievers previously, the loss of the draft pick hurts that much. I’m not saying that’s probable, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. I’d actually feel a bit better about losing the draft pick over a multiyear deal than a one-year deal, since the Yanks can still get some value out of Soriano in later years of the contract if he flops in the first.

I disagree with Joe’s last point, as I think a one year deal mitigates both the risk of injury and the draft pick issue. A one year commitment means that an injury will not hurt you past 2011, such that the worst case scenario is that the Yankees lose his salary and need to add another reliever during the season. As for the draft pick, it seems fairly likely that Soriano will be worth draft picks next off season as well. Unless he totally falls apart, the Yankees are likely to offer him arbitration. If he remains a Type A free agent, the Yankees would actually earn an additional pick, as they will only sacrifice one this year while gaining two upon his departure. Even if he declines to a Type B, he will be worth a supplemental pick, costing the Yankees about 10-15 spots in draft position plus one year of developing a prospect. While that is not an insignificant cost, it is not high enough to prevent the club from signing a player of Soriano’s ilk. Conversely, a multi-year deal increases the risks associated with a major injury, and pushes the retrieval of draft picks further into the future.

Ultimately, the Yankees interest should depend on the market. If Soriano has teams that are willing to give him a multi-year contract, the Yankees should heed Joe’s warning about long-term deals for relievers and back away. However, if the market does in fact make a one-year contract feasible, it would behoove the Yankees to consider making an offer for Soriano’s services.

Ultimately

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Yanks Interested In Jeff Francis

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 4 Responses »
Dec 242010

Jerry Crasnick reports that the Yankees are one of five teams with some interest in former-Rockies lefthander Jeff Francis. Francis, a soon-to-be 30 soft-tossing lefty, missed the entire 2009 due to injury, was not that good in 2008 when he was reportedly pitching through shoulder trouble, and turned in some poor results in 2010. So what do the Yankees see in him?

There are a few things that suggest Francis might be a good “buy low” candidate:

1) The last 2 seasons in which we know he was healthy were 2006 and 2007, and he was fairly solid in both campaigns. He was worth 3.6 wins in 2006, with a 4.16 ERA and a 4.38 FIP. He was better in 2007, giving the Rockies 4.1 wins (fWAR) while putting up a 4.22 ERA and a 4.19 FIP. He also began to strike batters out in 2007 at a higher rate than he ever had before, with a 6.9 K/9.

2) He is throwing harder now than he has since 2005, which suggests that he may finally be healthy. His fastball is now at 87.2, which is important as it provides a greater amount of spread between the heater and his primary off-speed pitch, the changeup. While Francis used to throw a slider and curveball as well, he has scrapped the slider in favor of throwing the change more frequently, which was a key to his success in 2006 and 2007.

3) He is a lefty who is much better against left-handed hitters. Righties hit him for an .812 OPS, while lefties come in at .716. Being that Yankee Stadium plays much larger for righties, this gives pitchers such as Francis a natural advantage.

4) His 2010 ERA of 5.00 is quite misleading. he had a FIP of 3.88 and xFIP of 3.94, and walked fewer batters (1.98 per 9) than he ever had before. He also upped his groundball-flyball ratio (1.46) and dropped his homer (.95 per 9) rate to the point where he can be considered a “ground ball guy,” another positive for someone being considered for a rotation slot in Yankees Stadium.

Francis is far from perfect, and ideally we would be figuring out how awesome Cliff Lee would be in pinstripes rather than trying to identify bounce-back candidates like Francis. But the situation being what it is, Francis seems like a decent bet to be a 3 win pitcher next season, and his pitching profile suggests that he would be a good fit in the Stadium and for the back of the Yankees rotation. I would take a shot on him.

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Rotation Options Dwindling

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 5:00 pm 12 Responses »
Nov 172010

Joel Sherman still believes the Yankees are the favorite to land Cliff Lee, which as Cliff Corcoran notes, has become increasingly important:

Last Thursday I took a look at the available free agent starting pitchers not named Cliff Lee or Andy Pettitte and boiled it down to four viable alternatives for the Yankees in the event of Lee singing elsewhere and/or Pettitte retiring. Less than a week later, half of those pitchers have already signed with other teams. Worse yet, the two pitchers who signed were the top two in my ranking of the four. Hiroki Kuroda re-signed with the Dodgers for just one year and $12 million. Jake Westbrook re-signed with the Cardinals for two years and $16.5 million with an $8.5 million mutual option for 2013. Both deals are extremely reasonable, making the signings all the more painful for the other teams around the league looking for starting pitching help.

The Plan-B list now looks like this:

1. Jon Garland
2. Jorge De La Rosa

Neither option is interesting to me. Garland would get smacked around in the AL East, and the upper limit for him would be to provide a league average inning eating season. De La Rosa has plenty of talent, but has not actually pieced it all together. His high walk rates, ERA that has never been below 4, and type A status make him a poor fit as well.

Quite frankly, the Yankees need both Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte if they want to improve their rotation via free agency this offseason. Alternatively, they can pursue a trade, but the cost would likely be high for the sort of pitcher that would fill a slot at the top of the rotation. Unless the Yankees are ready to hand two rotation spots to players like Ivan Nova, they need to be proactive in terms of securing both left-handers for the 2011 season.

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Yanks To Splurge On Free Agents?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 7 Responses »
Oct 262010

Going into the 2008-2009 free agency period, it was pretty clear that the Yankees were going to make a big splash on the free agent market. The club had missed the playoffs in 2008, and had a number of contracts coming off the books. With a large need at the top of the rotation, it was clear that the team would make a run at CC Sabathia and either Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett. After signing Sabathia and Burnett and trading for Nick Swisher, it seemed like the Yankees were basically done retooling. However, Brian Cashman looked at the upcoming free agent markets and decided that Mark Teixeira was too good to pass up, and the Yankees swooped in and nabbed him at the last moment. All three free agents were instrumental in the Yankees 27th championship, and their presence on the roster allowed the Yankees to bypass a weak free agent market in 2009-2010.

Now, as the calendar begins to inch towards the 2010-2011 free agency period, I am left wondering whether we may be in store for a repeat of 2008-2009. While the Yankees do not have many contracts coming off their ledger, they may look to next season’s free agent crop and realize that this year’s market may be the only opportunity to upgrade for the next few seasons. Outside of first basemen (Pujols, Gonzalez, Fielder), there are no elite players expected to be available next offseason.

While everybody expects the Yankees to go after Cliff Lee, most are not quite as certain that they will have interest in players such as Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford. Neither player will be cheap, and the upgrade relative to Brett Gardner or Nick Swisher is likely not large enough to justify the cost. However, Brian Cashman might take a look at his aging offense and come to the conclusion that these free agents might be the only solutions on the horizon. While it seems odd that one would upgrade an older offense by replacing some of its younger members, those are really the only positions at which the Yankees can upgrade, due to their older players being entrenched or more difficult to replace.

I do not think the Yankees will sign Crawford or Werth, and I would not be surprised if Brian Cashman pulls off a Swisher type trade that obviates the need to hand out more than one big free agent contract this offseason. Then again, I was shocked when they signed Teixeira. If the Yankees look at future free agent crops and find them wanting, they may choose to splurge on quality now rather than wait for something less expensive to develop down the road.

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Advocating Signing Elijah Dukes, Again

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 27 Responses »
May 112010

I have long advocated that the Yankees give Elijah Dukes a shot on their bench. With Curtis Granderson hurt, Randy Winn struggling, and Marcus Thames occupying the DH slot, the time is right for the addition of another bat. Yes, I know the offense is just fine and that the Yankees are a playoff team without Dukes. But the difference between Dukes and Winn could make a difference in October, and unlike other external bench options, it will not cost the Yankees any players to obtain Dukes.

I outlined the pros and cons during the offseason:

PROS

1) He has plenty of talent: He had a poor 2009 that was marred by injury and a strange loss of power, but his 2008 was fantastic and suggested that he was a star in the making. I am not really sure why he fell of a cliff in 2009, but it is clear that he has the skills and athleticism to be an above average player with the bat and adequate with the glove.

2) He projects to be better than the Yankees current options at 4th and 5th outfielder. His projected wOBA based on an average of four projection systems is .346, significantly better than that of Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

3) This is a good fit for Dukes: While he may not start right away, New York is likely his best shot to play in a winning environment for the first time while also affording him a reasonable chance of grabbing a starting spot. Being that Dukes has played for two awful franchises thus far, it might be a strong motivator for him to play with regularity for a winner.

4) He’s cheap, you can cut ties immediately if there is a problem, and he gives them options next offseason: Dukes will likely require less than a million dollars to sign, and can be stashed in the minors if he does not make the team immediately. Furthermore, there is no real downside here. If he acts up or plays poorly, he can simply be cut or traded without any repercussions.

CONS

1) His performance dropped in 2009, and he cannot stay healthy: His performance in 2009 was fairly shoddy, and he gained a reputation amongst National fans for having poor baseball instincts in the field and on the basepaths. Furthermore, Dukes has had trouble staying on the field, with 4 stints on the DL over the last 2 seasons. Then again, if he gets hurt, the Yankees would simply be right back where they are right now.

2) There are some very serious behavioral issues. I do not want to sweep these under the rug, because Elijah has had some serious issues that include multiple arrests and prompted the Nationals to hire someone to follow him around and keep him out of trouble. Furthermore, dropping that a player with that sort of history into the shark tank that is the NY media frenzy may not be the brightest of ideas.

Ultimately, I think it is worth a shot. As I noted above, if Dukes does not work out, the club is right back where they started and can go look for other options. If he succeeds, the Yankees will have obtained a young power bat for practically nothing. Why not give him a shot?

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Should The Yankees Pursue Elijah Dukes?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 6 Responses »
Mar 182010


(I know, terrible headline. The NY Post would be proud).
As I am sure most of you know by now, Elijah Dukes was released by the Nationals yesterday. The Nats stated clearly that Elijah had not done anything wrong in terms of behavior, and that this was purely a baseball decision. The first question on the mind of many Yankee fans was, should the Yankees pursue Dukes?

Last offseason, I felt fairly strongly that the Yankees should try and trade for Elijah:

If I were Brian Cashman, I would strongly consider swinging a deal for Dukes. The Nats have a very weak farm system, so that the Yankees may be able to put together a package of pitchers enticing enough to aquire the mercurial outfielder. He would fill the Melky Cabrera role in 2009, as he is a much better bat than Melky, is not appreciably worse in the field, and runs as well as, if not better than, Cabrera. He would allow the Yankees to field offers on Xavier Nady at the deadline, and could slot into left field in 2010 when Damon and Nady leave. At worst, he would give the Yankees the ability to walk away from Matt Holliday, Jason Bay, and Manny Ramirez if the cost got too high.

I turned out to be wrong about Melky, and he put up a strong year while Dukes regressed mightily. The regression was such that if Dukes would cost prospects now I would definitely stay away from him. However, being that he is now a free agent likely to command a minor league deal or something close to the minimum, he becomes a more interesting option. Let’s take a look at the pros and cons:

Pros
1) He has plenty of talent: He had a poor 2009 that was marred by injury and a strange loss of power, but his 2008 was fantastic. I’ll let JMK at Mystique and Aura explain:

Dukes mostly destroyed the minors in the Tampa Bay system, then struggled mightily in his 2007 callup, and was shuttled off to Washington, where he rebounded to hit a line of .264/.386/.478/.864, an OPS+ of 127 in 81 games. His power numbers were excellent with .214 ISO, and he posted a strong UZR in RF (11.2), albeit in a very small sample. He snagged a few bags, too. All in all, Dukes was one of the few bright spots in Washington that year with his 2.8 WAR.

Those numbers from 2008 represent those of a star in the making. I am not really sure why he fell of a cliff in 2009, but it is clear that he has the skills and athleticism to be an above average player with the bat and adequate with the glove.

2) He projects to be better than the Yankees current options at 4th and 5th outfielder, and may be better than Brett Gardner: His projected wOBA based on an average of four projection systems is .346, significantly better than that of Jaime Hoffmann, Marcus Thames, and Randy Winn. Brett Gardner would likely remain the starter as he is a bit closer with the bat than the others and is much stronger with the glove than Dukes, but it is not hard to envision Dukes wresting the job from Brett at some point. Dukes is also a right-handed bat, so he provides the same advantages that a guy like Thames or Hoffmann does. From a purely baseball standpoint, this is a logical move that would improve the ballclub.

3) This is a good fit for Dukes: While he may not start right away, New York is likely his best shot to play in a winning environment for the first time while also affording him a reasonable chance of grabbing a starting spot. Being that Dukes has played for two awful franchises thus far, it might be a strong motivator for him to play with regularity for a winner.

4) He’s cheap, you can cut ties immediately if there is a problem, and he gives them options next offseason: Dukes will likely require less than a million dollars to sign, and can be stashed in the minors if he does not make the team immediately. Furthermore, there is no real downside here. If he acts up or plays poorly, he can simply be cut or traded without any repercussions. On the flip side, if he plays well and behaves, he can allow the Yankees to pass on an expensive left fielder such as Jayson Werth or Carl Crawford this offseason. It is the very definition of low risk, high reward.

Cons

1) His performance dropped in 2009, and he cannot stay healthy: His performance in 2009 was fairly shoddy, and he gained a reputation amongst National fans for having poor baseball instincts in the field and on the basepaths. The article quoted above from M & A suggests that pitchers were picking on him by throwing significantly more breaking pitches, and the Fangraphs data does support the idea that pitchers were cutting down on fastballs to Dukes. Furthermore, Dukes has had trouble staying on the field, with 4 stints on the DL over the last 2 seasons. Then again, if he gets hurt, the Yankees would simply be right back where they are right now.

2) There are some very serious behavioral issues. I do not want to sweep these under the rug, because Elijah has had some serious issues that include multiple arrests and prompted the Nationals to hire someone to follow him around and keep him out of trouble. Furthermore, dropping that a player with that sort of history into the shark tank that is the NY media frenzy may not be the brightest of ideas.

That said, I think that the Yankee clubhouse might be the best place for Dukes, as it is a tight-knit group filled with professionals who can set a positive example. Dukes is unlikely to disrupt such a veteran clubhouse, and as Mike Axisa explains, it might be the right place for Dukes to learn how to be a positive asset to a baseball team:

I think this is exactly the kind of support system that could help him thrive. Joe Girardi and Jorge Posada provide the tough love, A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher would allow him to loosen up and be himself, and even guys like Alex Rodriguez and Joba Chamberlain, who’ve had their fair share of off-the-field troubles, can help him relate. I hate to bring race into it, but CC Sabathia and Curtis Granderson are two African American guys widely considered to be class acts and great people, and I can’t help but think they would be a positive influence on Dukes.

Might that be wishful thinking? Certainly. But once again, if he does something stupid and becomes a distraction, the Yankees can simply cut him. While it may add to the media circus around the Yankees, that should be irrelevant to the club, as they are certainly used to that sort of thing. I think that this is a risk worth taking.

Do you agree?

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Boras used Yanks to obtain Holliday's deal?

Posted by Chris H. at 3:26 pm 6 Responses »
Jan 072010

Though the Yankees were never really in on Matt Holliday, their financial edge might have helped to scare the Cardinals into providing him with a seven-year deal worth $120 million, which they’ll be paying for through 2029.

According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, Scott Boras, in the Holliday negotiations with St. Louis, put forth the idea that his client could accept “a one-year deal in search of a better free-agent market” next winter. Rosenthal then adds that if this did occur, if the Oklahoma native was open to a one-year deal, “[s]ome team — most likely the Yankees or Red Sox — might have signed Holliday for say, one year and $20 million” (KR’s salary figure is obviously an estimate).

While this seems like an altogether unlikely idea as Holliday, in the past, has stated how much he values organizational security and, in addition to that, such a one-year contract could put the outfielder’s financial future at great risk if he were to injure himself, according to Rosenthal, the Cardinals actually believed Boras and “their fear of losing Holliday prompted them to award him a seven-year contract.” This occurred even though the Yankees have outwardly stated that they are looking to lower payroll in 2010 and have acted accordingly with regards to that statement. Even if the Cardinals feared losing Holliday to Boston more than New York, the one-year idea still appears to be extremely far fetched as the Red Sox aren’t likely to extend their payroll by $20 million or so.

But, this is why Boras is a great agent to his faithful clientele. Often, he seems to be the one holding all of the cards and, in general, he usually holds the best hand. As I noted yesterday, perhaps this is why the Yankees — if they are still interested in bringing Johnny Damon back — opted to handle the Damon situation with a firm, hardline approach. Maybe Brian Cashman knows that with Boras, it’s best to wait for the player to come crawling back to you.

Photo by Getty Images

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Cashman: Next Step Not Imminent

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:50 pm 19 Responses »
Dec 102009

From Chad Jennings:

“I am definitely not in a position right now where I feel like I’m ready to do anything,” he said. “The next step isn’t ready to happen now, based on my conversations. There shouldn’t be another shoe to drop immediately.”
Cashman has options, and he has little need for urgency. He has to act, obviously, but the past four days have surely eased any need for desperation. Yesterday, Cashman acknowledged having talked to John Lackey’s agent. Today, he acknowledged talking about Ben Sheets. He’s met with the agents for Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui. He’s been engaged with multiple trade talks. As soon as something makes sense, he’ll be ready to move.
“Patience can benefit you, (or) it might not,” Cashman said. “You can wait something out and see if it falls in your lap, but by doing that you risk losing something that you want. It’s a little riskier for us to play that game. If we really want something and it fits in our criteria at some point, waiting it out to see if it gets cheaper, I’m not sure that’s the way we go about it.”

As Jennings notes, the number of options still available to fill the Yankees’ remaining holes allow Cashman to be patient and allow the market to develop a bit. Regarding LF/DH, there are options such as Damon, Matsui, Holliday, Johnson, Delgado, Dye, Thome, and Cust, and I am sure that I am missing a number of names. As Cashman stated earlier this week, (from Davidoff):

“You can turn left, you can turn right, you can look up and down, and you’ve got a DH sitting right there begging for a job.”

In terms of pitching, Sheets, Lackey, Escobar, Duchsherer, Bedard, Garland, and Marquis are available. The Yankees can now afford to wait it out and dictate terms to some of these free agents. So buckle in, because the offseason is just beginning.

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Discussion: Outside The Box Offseason Ideas

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 9:52 am 38 Responses »
Nov 262009

On the face of it, the Yankees options for this offseason seem obvious. They have 3 of their own free agents that they may want to bring back. On the starting pitching front, John Lackey is the big fish while a handful of injury prone arms litter the remainder of the market. There are a handful of reliable relievers available, while Holliday, Bay, and Cameron represent the market on outfielders. On the trade front, Halladay is the big name while Felix Hernandez seems like a bit of a pipe dream.

However, nobody would have expected Nick Swisher to become a Yankee last offseason, as Brian Cashman stunned us all with that move. The question I pose today is: Do you have any outside the box ideas for the Yankees offseason? Any free agents that are not getting any buzz that you would like them to sign, or trades that you would target that others have not mentioned? The writers of The Yankee Universe will be chipping in at the start of next week with their own “outside the box” offseason ideas, but would love to hear yours today. Chime in, and do not be shy, nothing is too wacky for this post.

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