According to “two executives from competing teams” that spoke to Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman (props to RAB), Derek Jeter could seek a six-year contract from the Yankees once he enters free agency at the end of the year. One executive noted, in reference to Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, and the six-year proposal, “[He] is a good agent. You don’t get it if you don’t ask.” Of course, this is the nature of negotiations. Jeter could seek a six-year deal, however, I think he and his agent, being the smart guy that he is, know the Yankees would likely prefer to do a shorter deal, say, in the four-year range. So, in reality, asking for a six-year deal is a bargaining tactic – aim high first – to receive a five or four-year offer. It’s like when a charitable group calls you and initially asks for $1,000 (assuming you haven’t hung up). As you continue to say no to them, they ultimately end up settling on a much more reasonable figure like $25.
That’s the nature of the game. If Jeter actually wanted a six-year deal, we would probably hear reports about him wanting a seven or eight-year deal instead. Again, it cannot hurt to aim high out the gate, as long as you think realistically in terms of what you expect to actually receive (unlike Johnny Damon over the winter). In the end, I can see Jeter receiving a four or possibly even a five-year offer, but six won’t happen. I think Jeter knows that, too.
Photo by Reuters
Today in Tampa, Derek Jeter met with the media to discuss the new year and, of course, his looming free agency was the dominant topic of conversation. As was expected, Jeter brushed the issue off as a possible distraction and affirmed his desire to be a Yankee for the duration of his already impressive career. “This is the only organization I’ve ever wanted to play for,” Jeter said. “That’s still true today. I was a Yankees fan growing up, and this is where I want to be. I’ve never envisioned myself playing anywhere else, and hopefully I don’t have to.” He then added, “I’ve never gone into a season focused on the next season. My approach since day one is to do whatever you can to help the team win in that particular year. I’m not thinking about what’s going to happen next season.”
Jeter also stated that his agent, Casey Close, phoned the Yankees over the offseason in order to gauge their interest in providing the future Hall of Famer with a new deal, however, Close was told by the front office that the organization intends on waiting until the end of the season to offer Jeter a proposal. When asked about the team’s contract policy, Jeter responded with, “I don’t have a problem with it. That’s the new policy that they have. They have every right to do that. I signed a long deal, I’m still under contract with that deal, and they have the right to do whatever they want.”
As it stands, Jeter shouldn’t be worried about his situation at all, really. You would be hard-pressed to find another soon-to-be free agent with as much presumed job security as the Yankees’ 35-year old shortstop. The only question is how much money and how many years will the beloved player receive upon re-signing. That, I’m not sure.
Photo by the AP
According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the Braves’ interest in Johnny Damon has increased in recent days, to the point where the club has sent the 36-year old outfielder a one-year offer. Further confirming this is Mark Bowman, who notes that the proposal includes some deferred money. The organization has also had the face of their franchise, future Hall of Famer, Chipper Jones, call Damon in order to talk up Atlanta in the hopes that he would consider joining them. Damon, however, while stating just yesterday that he would like to join the Braves, is still demanding a two-year contract and has yet to budge from that position. In fact, his agent, Scott Boras, is claiming a team currently has a two-year offer on the table for Damon, yet did not disclose that team’s identity (of course).
Given Damon’s lack of options, I seriously doubt Boras’ mystery team ploy will work. Everyone will call that bluff.
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images
After the World Series is over and a victor is crowned, the Yankees will be faced with the awkward situation that is Derek Jeter’s free agency. Of course, the Yankees will work to re-sign Jeter, who is the the face of New York’s multimillion dollar franchise, however, that is not where the awkwardness lies. Instead, the uncomfortableness stems from being tasked with diplomatically assessing Jeter’s value at the age of 36, and beyond, and then offering the annual All-Star a proposal that hopefully meets his own individual view of his worth in relation to the franchise. With the fans waiting with baited breathe to see what occurs, that can be, as I said, an awkward, if not difficult, situation.
There is one way around that, though—just pay Jeter pretty much whatever he desires as long as it’s not cartoonish in nature. As I have stated in the past (just recently, even), such an approach is a distinctly dangerous and financially frivolous way to do business, nonetheless, it appears as though the Yankees will be susceptible to this kind of thinking, as Jeter’s history with the team may not allow them any formal advantage in their negotiations (assuming Jeter’s overall production does not nosedive this season). I arrive at this conclusion based on Hank Steinbrenner’s recent conversation with the Daily News. When asked about Jeter’s looming free agency, Hank replied, “We’ll get into all of that eventually. Jeter’s place in Yankee history is obvious, so I think you can pretty much assume from there.” The underlying message is pretty clear, right? And this is not the first time mini-George has indicated the Yankees’ “give him what he wants” approach once Jeter’s current ten-year contract finally expires. In February of 2008, Hank also said, with regards to Jeter’s free agency, “Obviously, Derek will always be special to us and will be taken care of.”
If one factors the not-so-subtle hints as well as the mammoth contracts awarded to Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera once they became free agents, I think it is safe to assume that Jeter could receive an enormous payday next winter.
Photo by Getty Images
With the offseason slowly drawing to a close, it looks like the Yankees were in fact serious about maintaining a modicum of fiscal responsibility. However, some have suggested that Brian Chasman is just saving his bullets for next offseason, when there is a class of free agents that Cashman has previously professed admiration for. Dayn Perry runs through the big names, and I would like to highlight the players I think the Yankees would have interest in:
1. Joe Mauer, C
Opening Day 2011 Age: 282. Cliff Lee, LHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 323. Brandon Webb, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 324. Derek Jeter, SS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 37
These four players make up the top tier of talent, and at least one of them (Jeter) is almost certain to be in pinstripes in 2011. I strongly believe Mauer will sign in Minnesota, as their new ballpark and Mauer’s hometown roots makes this a perfect marriage. Regarding Webb, his recent shoulder injuries make him a significant risk. Although he will likely be cheaper than Lee and his groundball ways make him a solid fit for Yankee Stadium, I would stay away from him. Lee is the better option, and I think that the Yankees will be all-in on Cliff to take the rotation spot vacated by either Andy Pettitte or Javy Vazquez. I could see the Yankees offering Lee 5 years at 19 million per year. Jeter will likely get a similar salary for a reduced number of years. 4 years and 75-80 million will get it done.
5. Carl Crawford, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 296. Jayson Werth, OF
Opening Day 2011 Age: 328. Josh Beckett, RHS
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31Beckett is good, but let’s be objective: He’s not an ace on most staffs. Beckett’s career ERA of 3.79 is solid enough, but just three times in his career has he managed at least 200 innings in a season. It’s also worth noting that since Beckett arrived in Boston and supposedly achieved “ace-dom,” his ERA is 4.05. That’s a tick or two better than the league average, but the numbers simply don’t rise to the level of Beckett’s reputation. That said, if you’re looking for a No. 2 man, then Beckett is a reasonable choice. Just be sure pay him like a No. 2 man. Lee and a healthy Webb are both significantly better.
10. Adam Dunn, OF/DH
Opening Day 2011 Age: 31
This next tier includes a number of players who might be good fits in NY but have certain flaws that make their acquisition entirely dependent on the market. Dunn would be a bargain on a deal similar to the one he signed with Washington, as he would fit perfectly in Yankees Stadium and 2 years, 20 million would likely be less than his actual value. Similarly, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are both versatile players who add a lot both offensively and defensively. However, I would not touch either player if they required a deal more than 4 years, and even then the AAV should not exceed 14M a year. I hate Beckett, and added Perry’s note on him because it illustrates my contention that Josh is slightly overrated. That said, if the market for him bottoms out due to injury concerns and outsized demands, expect Brian Cashman to kick the tires on him.
11. Mariano Rivera
12. Manny Ramirez
13. Huston Street
15. Javier Vazquez
16. Rafael Soriano
If Javy Vazquez has a very strong year, I could see the Yankees attempting to sign the workhorse to a long term deal. However, if he is just solid, he will likely get a 3 year deal worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million, a price the Yankees should shy away from. I could see the Yankees entering the 2011 season with Sabathia, Burnett, Hughes, Chamberlain, and either Andy Pettitte or a free agent like Cliff Lee in the rotation. Regarding the bullpen, if Mariano continues to act like a vampire, the Yankees will have to shell out some dough to sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal, depending on his preference. No matter what happens with Mo, I could see the Yankees being in the market for a top reliever, so as to allow both Joba and Hughes to start. If so, Street and Soriano would both be good fits. Finally, I have long advocated bringing in Manny, but unless he is asking for a 1 year deal for 10 million or less, I cannot see Cash biting.
Photo Credit: ESPN.com
With free agency rapidly entering January, the lack of interest in Johnny Damon seems befuddling. Johnny had one of his best seasons at the plate last season, and most expected that he would likely receive offers in the 2 year, 10-12 million a year range. However, it seems that this is not the case, and it is becoming hard to identify a club that will hand him a multi year deal or an AAV in the 10 million dollar range. While his defense has declined and there are signs that he benefited from Yankee Stadium, he is still a player with plenty of value. Why doesn’t anyone want Damon?
Chuck Brownson of THT asked the same question last week, and he was equally confused:
Even if you’re convinced that part of Damon’s success last year was a result of a favorable home ballpark, it’s difficult to foresee a scenario in which Damon isn’t an average offensive contributor in 2010 and 2011 and he’ll probably be considerably better than that……
While UZR and Tango’s fans scouting report seem to agree on Damon’s defense in 2009, ZRDif (the difference between his RZR and the average RZR for his position) and Chone’s Total Zone aren’t so sure. RZR (found in THT’s Baseball Annual) has Damon at .013 — above average in left — and Total Zone has him as a plus-six run defensive player in left.
By now we should know not to use one year defensive data in evaluating a player so even factoring in Damon’s minus-nine from UZR last year, his three year average UZR is 1.7 runs above average. His speed score is above average and he has stolen at least 12 runs every full season of his career. While his arm is a drawback, there is reason to believe that his range is still there.
For their parts, CHONE’s projections for Damon have him pegged for a .270/.357/.432 slash line in 2009, good for nine runs above average offensively and seven runs above average defensively. Damon’s had at least 600 plate appearances every season since 1998 so, 16 runs above average would have him as roughly a three win player in 2010. The ZIPS projections at Baseball Think Factory have basically the same line: .272/.350/.436. Conservatively, there’s no reason to think that Damon won’t be worth 4.5 to 5 wins over the next two seasons.
As such, he should be drawing a lot more interest than he has actually garnered. I think clubs are simply attributing too much of his offensive value to Yankee Stadium, and are ignoring his track record and almost perfect record of health. Damon will likely end up with a below market deal, which gives me the slightest hope that the Yankees might jump on a bargain and bring him back. Adrian Beltre’s contract with the Red Sox might serve as a convenient template, as both are 3 win players with some concerns about their future performance (Beltre due to health, Damon due to age). The Yankees can offer Damon a one year deal at 9 million, with a player option for 6 million and a 1 million dollar buyout. If Damon plays very well, he can reenter the free agent market, and the Yankees will have paid 9 million for a good Damon year, which is below market. If Damon plays poorly, the Yankees can exercise the buyout and limit the loss to one year. It seems to make sense for both sides. Hopefully the two sides see that and reach an agreement.
From Will Carroll on Twitter (h/t NYBD):
Cubs signing of Mike Cameron is waiting on deal of Milton Bradley, which has been “imminent” for about 72 hours.
The Milton Bradley deal referenced is one that would send the disgruntled outfielder to the Rays for the similarly unproductive Pat Burrell. This is a deal that has been discussed for weeks, and is apparently close to coming to fruition. Carroll is the only one that I have seen reporting the second domino in this equation, the signing of Cameron by the Cubs. Many of the writers here at TYU believe Cameron would be a nice addition to the 2010 Yankees, either as a replacement for Johnny Damon or in addition to Damon, so this comes as unwelcome news. Hopefully Carroll’s information is incorrect or one of the reported deals falls through.
In 2009, at the tender age of 35, Derek Jeter, the Yankees’ all-time hits leader, produced a triple slash line of .334/.406/.465, with 18 home runs, 66 runs batted in and 30 stolen bases. In addition, his wOBA sat at .390, which was the best at his position in the American League and third best at short across both leagues, trailing only Florida’s Hanley Ramirez and Colorado’s Troy Tulowitzki (who, by the way, idolizes Jeter). Basically, Jeter had a very Jeterian year, offensively.
Of course, 2009 was also a very un-Jeterian year for Captain Intangibles, in that he shocked sabermetric audiences by having the best defensive season of his Hall of Fame career. His UZR/150 was a remarkable +8.4, a far cry from the negative figures that had infamously plagued him just a few years ago (in 2007, for example, Jeter’s UZR/150 was -16.7). The change, according to most sources, was brought on by good health, a new offseason training regimen designed to increase lateral range (to his left, in particular), and some nifty positioning tips from the new Yankee coaching staff.
All in all, Jeter’s markedly improved defense and consistently excellent offense made him 7.4 wins above replacement (WAR) and a bargain at $20 million (yes, a bargain, as the financial cost per win is around $4.5 million).
However, what was an economic bargain for the Yankees in 2009 could quickly reestablish itself as an economic burden over the winter; for as the team approaches the end of Derek Jeter’s $189 million contract, which finally expires after the 2010 season, many, like Bob Klapisch (FOX Sports), are clamoring for the Yankees to offer Derek Jeter an extension. As Klapisch notes, “There’s no reason to put Jeter on hold,” because by doing so, they’re simply delaying the inevitable (Klapisch refers to it as a “bad move”). Therefore, extend Jeter now, as not doing so is “counter-intuitive.”
Though, initially, Klapisch’s call to extend may sound like a good idea given Jeter’s stellar ’09 campaign—a campaign which saw Mr. Minka go above and beyond the levels of production seen from most players at his position (and his age bracket)—and the altogether awkward prospect of Derek Jeter in contractual limbo during free agency, when one actually attempts to remove some of the subjectivity from the issue and reflect upon the extension proposition through an analytical eye, it becomes quite clear how problematic and flawed the idea is for the New York Yankees.
Now, as I have repeated throughout this text, Derek Jeter had an excellent season. Basically, when it was all said and done, after the final game of the regular season, Jeter was worth about $33.3 million (based on wins, so that’s 7.4 x 4.5 = 33.3). He delivered typical Jeter production with his bat and atypical Jeter production with his glove (a good thing), making him the best shortstop in the American League. When one then considers his impressive postseason numbers (.344/.432/.562) and his Gehrig-chasing campaign, it’s clear that there can be no higher peak for Jeter’s current value as he has, in no way, shown any signs of the aging process (he improved upon his 2008 season). In fact, Jeter may have had the best overall season of his Hall of Fame career—that’s how good he was in 2009. Also, let’s not forget the hardware he earned this year—a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger—confirming his value (at least to some).
Interestingly enough, with this context in mind, Bob Klapisch is imploring the Yankees to extend Jeter, although he has another year left on his deal. If the Yankees were to follow Klapisch’s advice, they would essentially go into contract negotiations with a blank check, as their leverage power, at this point in time, is nonexistent. Jeter’s particularly productive performance precludes such contractual discussions before they even begin. Despite his age, Sir Flip’s value is at an apex, therefore, isn’t it only logical to wait until after the 2010 season to resign him? Unless he suddenly admits that he has discovered the fountain of youth, there is no way for his value to climb beyond its current point. It would be best for the Yankees to wait until after Jeter’s season to renegotiate a new contract with him as he could have a lesser year, which would potentially help the organization, financially, in that it would provide them some level of bargaining power and save them a couple of million. Even if Jeter has a similar year to 2009, he’ll still be 36 at the end of next season (and 37 in 2011), rather than 35 right now, allowing the Yankees to bargain his price down a bit given his age (regardless of whether or not he played like a 36-year old).
Basically, the Yankees shouldn’t expect to save much when trying to resign Jeter after his contract expires—throughout this piece, I’ve assumed that they will do that—as he’ll still command a $100 million deal or something close to a $100 million deal (maybe more, maybe less), however, offering Jeter an extension now eliminates the possibility of saving any money during negotiations (these saved dollars could be used towards younger players like Joe Mauer). Such a decision would be bad business, plain and simple. The Yankees appear to be aware of this, as there have been reports indicating that the organization will wait until after the season to address Jeter’s contract situation. Klapisch doesn’t seem to acknowledge this perspective, though, as the argument he puts forth is essentially based upon fan thinking and emotive irrationality.
Clearly, I’m not advocating for the Yankees to part ways with Derek Jeter, as he has shown remarkable improvements even as he nears 40; instead, I’m saying it won’t hurt to wait another year before arranging a new commitment. Then, the team can reevaluate the situation and its context, so as to come to an agreement that is both financially responsible and organizationally appropriate.
Photo by Jason Kempin/Getty Images
From Joel Sherman (NY Post):
So much for the hometown discount. The Yankees have been hoping Johnny Damon’s desire to stay a Yankee is great enough that he agrees to return on a one- or, at most, two-year contract.However, his representative, Scott Boras, hardly sounded like Damon was going to be a short-term bargain for the Yankees. Instead, he compared his client to Derek Jeter and sounded an awful lot like someone who expects a three- or four-year deal for Damon.
If that is indeed the case, then the Yankees and Damon are very likely heading for divorce this offseason. The Yankees are concerned about how Damon’s desire and body will hold up under another long-term contract plus they have overall worries about tying up too many thirtysomething players long-term and facing an aging cataclysm in around 2012-13.
Sherman goes on to say that Damon’s agent, Scott Boras, is trying to link Damon and Derek Jeter together so as to make it seem as though the two players are reliant upon each other (and, therefore, the Yankees lineup is reliant upon Johnny Damon). Thus if you lose Damon, according to Boras’ logic, Jeter’s production will suffer. Sherman also notes that Boras cited Jorge Posada’s 4-year deal as a comparable contract for Damon—Posada was given the deal when he was 36—although it’s much harder to find a good hitting catcher than it is an offensively solid yet defensively inept left fielder. That contract was signed prior to the 2008 offseason, as well, which is when the free agent market really bottomed out (just ask Bobby Abreu).
In the end, a depressed market—not Boras—will ultimately dictate Damon’s deal. If he wants too many years and too much money, you let him walk (I’m opposed to him returning at all). It shouldn’t be a hard decision given his flaws.
From Jon Heyman (SI):
The Yankees have interest in bringing back Johnny Damon — “We need him,” A-Rod said — but could well get competition from at least the White Sox and Giants. The Cardinals, Braves and Red Sox are among other teams looking for a corner outfielder, though it’s hard to imagine him going back to Boston. Before these playoffs, the Yankees were believed willing to go for two years and $16 million for Damon. But that was before his solo double steal in Game 4.
First, Heyman’s implied assertion that the Yankees would be willing to increase their offer of $16 million over 2 years based on Damon’s “double steal” in Game 4 is one of the more laughable things I’ve read this week. Because of an intelligent play in the World Series, the Yankees should completely negate financial responsibility as well as Damon’s age and defensive deficiencies, and offer him more money. That makes sense, sure.
Furthermore, a deal of $16 million over a 2-year period seems rather perplexing when you consider that Damon was the recipient of an offensive boost in 2009, courtesy, not of any particular performance enhancing drug, but of the new Yankee Stadium (every homer he hit was to right field and he only hit 7 on the road, compared to 17 at home). Therefore, it seems strange for the Yankees to expect a similarly effective offensive year in 2010, especially since the Stadium might play differently a year from now. Add in his defensive decline and you have to wonder if Damon is a wise investment.
Via FanGraphs, we learn that Damon was worth $12.5 million this year, but if an offensive downturn is expected along with a continued defensive spiral, then can you expect Damon to earn $8 million per over the next two seasons? Maybe, however, would it be worth it to sign such a player? I don’t think so, not when there are more options available to the Yankees—options that are offensive and defensive assets—via free agency or trade.
