Ben’s afternoon post over at RAB yesterday (BTW-Happy Birthday RAB!) got me thinking. As Jorge ages, there will come a point at some time when the Yanks will have a very difficult decision to make. A decision between sitting an aging, proud core 4 player in decline and giving more of his playing time to a young defensive whiz at a premium defensive position. It’s not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’. So I wanted to walk through this, give my thoughts, solicit yours and see if we can come up with some sort of consensus. Here’s what Ben wrote:

Jorge Posada — .263/.355/.445 VORP: 16.7 WARP: 1.6
The key stat here for Posada is the way PECOTA pegs him as a prime candidate for a collapse. He’ll turn 39 in mid-August, and his collapse rate is an alarming 37 percent. Comfortingly, though, his attrition rate is nearly the same. We’ll probably see something of a decline from Posada, but hopefully, it’s closer to an attrition dip than an all-out collapse. The Yanks are penciling him in for 120 games behind the plate. That might be optimistic, but BP is high on Francisco Cervelli’s defense as a caddy to Jorge.

If Jorge’s still OPSing .800 at age 39, he’s still your everyday Catcher and you’re going to live with his defensive deficiencies. That is still above League average (.777) at the position, though admittedly not as much as his career mark (.859) or last year’s number (.885). But an .800 OPS represents a big decline for Jorge, and given his position and age even that number may be somewhat optimistic. Just falling back to the pack with his bat could cause you to cut back his playing time and pick your spots more often with him, further decline will cause the Yanks to examine who should be the starter altogether.

Let’s assume his bat drops off significantly from there, either this year or next, to somewhere in the mid-700s. Now let’s say Cervelli’s OPS is around .700 (.747 in minors) you get to a point somewhere in which you will value Cervelli’s glove more than Jorge’s bat. I’m just not sure where it is. Catcher has always been one of the most elusive positions to nail down with any sort of defensive metric. If they were BOTH at .700, then I think it’s an easy call. Cervelli would catch most days unless a pitcher (like Andy) prefers Posada or Cervelli needs a day off. But let’s say Jorge’s around .750, it’s July and it’s obvious to everyone that it’s not just a slump. Is that enough to sit Posada? When do you pull the trigger on this? I guess the real question is how much value do you put on a Catcher’s glove? First I’ll weigh in with my own thoughts, then with what I think the Yanks will do.

I’ve already been on the record wondering if Cervelli can hold down the job everyday and if Jorge is poised for a big decline this year based on his Walk rate and SO Rates both going in the wrong direction last year. That often signals that a player’s bat is slowing down. Fangraphs Pitch Type Values tell you how he fared depending on what pitchers threw him, and it was clear his ability to handle fastballs declined while he destroyed change ups last year. That won’t last, pitchers will simply stop throwing him the change and challenge him with more heat. Defensively, Jorge has long been one of the bottom dwellers at his position. The Bill James 2010 Handbook pegged him as the worst catcher at “saving runs” with a mark of -23 over the past 3 seasons. Jorge’s status as an everyday player has always been tied to his bat, so as his bat declines he goes from being a net-plus to a net-minus pretty quickly. You could even argue that if his bat was simply league-average, he’s a net minus to the team due to his defense.

From the Yanks perspective, this is a contingency they have to have been considering for the past few years. Catchers who maintain the ability to start everyday at age 39 are the exception, not the rule. Especially on a winning team like the Yanks. We know that the Yanks aren’t nostalgic, if the were Matsui and Damon would be on the 2010 team. The manager has already sat Jorge in the playoffs and was a defense-first catcher himself, so I think it’s obvious where he stands. The 15 mil Jorge is due for 2010 and 2011 is irrelevant, you have to pay him that whether he plays or not. If anything, having a replacement on the roster in Cervelli making the MLB minimum softens the blow from a payroll standpoint. All totaled, the Yanks will do whatever they believe will help them win, pride, loyalty and contract aside.

We know that there are differences between how Posada and Molina caught Sabathia last year, and in the results, but game calling is still very difficult to nail down. You’d have to normalize for Umpire’s strike zone, Ballpark and Opponent before you can even begin to discuss the Catcher’s impact. As Max Marchi noted in that piece, Cervelli and Posada were very similar in their pitch selection, though Cervelli managed to outperform Jorge and match Molina’s output, albeit in limited action.

That leads us to the starting pitchers, who would have a lot to say with where this would go as well. If the Yanks believe that the pitchers perform better with Cervelli behind the dish, then that could make up for the difference between the two bats. CC has gone on the record raving about Cervelli, and the Yanks will cater to him with the money/years they have committed to Sabathia. AJ’s issues with Posada are well known, though I’ve never believed it was anything personal. I just don’t think Jorge can handle AJ’s electric stuff on a regular basis. Andy loves Jorge and doesn’t have the type of blazing stuff that would give him problems. With Joba, they will probably go with whichever combo works better, and he and Jorge have worked well together in the past. Though Joba’s vicious slider, plus heat and so-so control would lead me to believe they’ll lean toward the more athletic receiver. With Vasquez, I have no idea.

What do you think? When does Jorge’s plus-bat no longer make up for his minus glove?

It’s not as crazy as you might think. Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News did a piece on Cervelli this morning, which included some insight into how the powers that be feel about Cervelli. He writes:

Cervelli, who turns 24 next month, was a revelation last season for the Yanks as a fill-in when Posada and former backup Jose Molina got hurt. From May 7-31, he appeared in 15 games. Overall, he hit .298 with a .309 on-base percentage and .372 slugging percentage in 42 games. He hit a noteworthy homer in Atlanta to key an important rally – his first career blast – and knocked in 11 runs. He also appeared briefly in the division series and ALCS.

But what really impressed the Yankees was his catching and handling of pitchers. Joe Girardi said he believed Cervelli could one day be a No. 1 catcher and pitchers such as CC Sabathia raved about him. Not bad for a guy who is generally skipped over when folks talk about Posada’s eventual replacement.

My first reaction is probably the same as most readers. That Francisco is an excellent backup, but probably can’t hit enough to hold down the position on a team like the Yanks full time. But don’t dismiss the idea. With all the questions surrounding Montero’s glove, Austin Romine being at least 2 years away and Jorge due to turn 39 on August 17th, there could be a period of time where he becomes the full-time Catcher. Girardi and the pitchers will love it, but ‘m sure many fans will miss Jorge’s firepower. Fans should remember that the first big winning streak of 2009 was when Posada was injured and Cervelli was behind the dish. During the May time period when Posada was injured, the team  was 16-7 and enjoyed a 9 game winning streak. The Red Sox have moved in the direction of Pitching and Defense, and in the post-steroid era the pressure on teams to have a slugger at every position is nowhere near as great. The classic way to build a winning team is with defense up the middle, and Frankie fits that formula.

photo courtesy of Bronx Baseball Daily

Sean over at Pending Pinstripes did what I was thinking about doing but too lazy to pull the trigger on: he averaged the top-20 prospect lists of every major prospect pundit out there, including my list, and merged it in to one list. Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino were eliminated the the lists were adjusted.

Here is my list, and here is the averaged list, with ratings on a 1-240 scale:

1. Jesus Montero – 240
2. Austin Romine – 216
3. Zach McAllister – 207
4. Manny Banuelos – 205
5. Slade Heathcott – 187
6. JR Murphy – 125
7. Andrew Brackman – 100
8. Mark Melancon- 98
9. Jeremey Bleich- 91
10. Ivan Nova- 78
11. Jairo Heredia-77
12. Kelvin De Leon- 76
13. DJ Mitchell- 72
14. Gary Sanchez- 59
15. Wilkens De La Rosa- 48
16. Corban Joseph- 48
17. David Adams- 35
18. Adam Warren- 30
19. Dellin Betances- 28
20. Jose Ramirez – 22

There is a good deal of variation after the top-5. The biggest disagreement against my own list involve J.R. Murphy (I rated him 13th), D.J. Mitchell (I rated him 21st), and Francisco Cervelli (I rated him 11th, he doesn’t appear on this list at all). Besides that, the lists are in quite a bit of agreement.

I’d like to defend the three variances briefly.

J.R. Murphy – I definitely have loved what I’ve seen since the draft. The seven-figure signing bonus, the brief but strong hitting spree in short-season ball, and all the scouting reports have been really encouraging. However, I think that we may be jumping the gun a bit on our second-round pick. We’re not all that sure what position he may wind up in. A lot of people think he’s more of an outfielder than a catcher. He’s good, but if you asked me if I’d trade Mark Melancon for J.R. Murphy, I’d say “No” and not think twice about it.

D.J. Mitchell – Mitchell legitimately had a really great season. He surprised us all and definitely made himself a legit starting prospect. Still, he had some control problems against left-handed hitters that are troubling if he is to remain a starter, and is already entering his age-23 season. #13 is a bit high, I think.

Francisco Cervelli – Did people forget about him? Cervelli is still rookie-eligible, so he’s still a prospect in my books. He has been consistently underrated by prospect watchers for his whole career, and I’ve caught some heat for rating him in the 10-15 range several times. Cervelli is a legit defensive star with more stick than Jose Molina. That’s got a lot of value, and he’s about to bring it to the majors. Good for him.

While the Yankee bloggers on this list saved him, Zach McAllister has been chronically underrated by MLB-wide lists. I think that he’d going to show a lot of people what he can do in 2010, and be an important part of the Yankees depth chart. If he does work out, he’ll also be a big victory for the Yankee pitching development staff, who completely rebuilt his pitching style from the ground up.

With yesterday’s acquisition of Randy Winn, the Yankees’ bench seems to be set. Let’s examine the implications this could have for the 2010 team.

First off, the fact that Johnny Damon is not returning should give current left fielder Brett Gardner a big confidence boost. By not re-signing Damon, instead opting for a cheaper player who isn’t likely to take a starting job from the “incumbent” Gardner, the Yankees are telling the young outfielder that they believe he can hold the position competently. I don’t have much faith in Gardner getting much better than he was in 2009, but there is still room to grow. With plus defense, a decent OBP (.340-.350?), and his speed, Gardner could be a net positive in left field for the Yankees.

Next we come to the “order of operations,” if you will (excuse me, I’m interning at a middle school and doing a little bit of work in math classes) for the outfield. Barring anything unforeseen between now and the beginning of the season, the regular OF alignment will be Gardner–Granderson–Swisher. Defensively, this outfield is pretty solid. Offensively, two-thirds of it is above average. The first man off the bench will obviously be Winn. As I discussed last night, he’s a good option at each of the outfield positions and can at least handle himself at the plate. Signing another bench outfielder will likely have a double-edged-sword type of effect on Rule V pick Jamie Hoffmann.

On the one hand, it will allow Hoffmann to develop at a slower pace. He will no longer be the first option off the bench, nor will he be an injury away from being a full time starter. On the other hand, though, it does mean fewer at bats for Hoffmann and the only way to grow as a major leaguer is with consistent trips the plate.

Frankie Cervelli will assume the back-up catcher’s duties and I don’t think we should expect anything from him that we didn’t expect frohttp://www.theyankeeu.com/wp-admin/post-new.phpm Jose Molina. Cervelli will likely bring a relatively weak bat to the plate, but should play above average defense behind the plate. I wonder, though, if he’ll be paired with any one pitcher. Perhaps Joe Girardi will pair Cervelli with A.J. Burnett as he did with the latter and Jose Molina in 2009. Another route that could be taken is pairing Joba Chamberlain with Cervelli. It seems as though Posada and Chamberlain never really got themselves on the same page, so maybe Joba would work better with Cervelli.

The last spot is the utility infielder’s spot which will most likely be either Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo. If it’s Pena, I’ll expect the same thing as Cervelli: good defense with an almost anemic bat. If it’s Russo, I’d expect a little more of the bat with a little less defense.

So, as of now, I’m willing to bet that the Yankee bench will be made up of outfielders Randy Winn and Jamie Hoffmann, with Francisco Cervelli doing the back up catching, and one of Ramiro Pena or Kevin Russo playing all over the infield; let’s also not forget that Nick Johnson and/or Nick Swisher could play first base in a pinch. This bench may not have a ton of power, but it’s versatile and the parts are more or less replaceable if they do not perform.

Steven Goldman of YES’ Pinstriped Bible blog has a new piece up skewering the idea that some fans have put forward, that Frankie Cervelli should start full time next year. While I agree Posada will (and should) get more time than Cervelli, I still take issue with parts of his arguments. He writes:

One key takeaway here is that (Cervelli’s) .273/.367/.380 in the Minors, primarily the low Minors, does not suggest the foundations of a Major League hitter. It suggests an out machine. It might suggest Jose Molina, and Molina, also a very talented catcher, isn’t good enough to play every day.

He might want to familiarize himself with Posada’s minor league numbers. He performed well at the lower levels, but stumbled as he rose through the ranks. His OPS went from .804 in the minors to .859 over his MLB career, so some players do grow over time and get better at the MLB level than they were in the minors. A good predictor of that is work ethic, and Cervelli is reported to have that in abundance, as did Jorge. Cervelli also simply hasn’t played much at the higher levels, playing only 58 games above High-A in the past two seasons. So drawing any conclusions on what type of hitter he is is premature, at best. We simply don’t know yet. He’s never shown Jorge’s power at any level, but I would keep an open mind, since power is often the last thing to come.

The Angels, for all of Mike Scioscia’s love of good defense at catcher (he being an excellent defender himself, and a brick wall when blocking the plate), kept him firmly behind Bengie Molina. The team to give Molina the most playing time, last year’s Yankees, was also the first Yankees team to miss the playoffs in 100 years. It was not a coincidence — despite the fact that Molina allowed only two passed balls, despite the fact that he caught 44 percent of basestealers. An offense can’t overcome that many outs, and a bad hitter makes more of them on offense than he can possibly save on defense.

Period. No debate. This is reality. It’s not a stathead thing. It’s not a calculator thing. It’s just very basic truth. A catcher might get 600 chances on offense a year. The number of great, run-saving plays that a strong defensive catcher will make over a mediocre one doesn’t add up to the extra outs. It can’t when we’re talking about plays that save perhaps a base a game, if that.

This is where his argument breaks down and he contradicts himself. The differential between a league average bat at Catcher (.717 OPS) and an outstanding bat like Jorge Posada (.859 Career OPS) is .142 points of OPS, or roughly a base and a half every 2 games. So even if we accept the notion that outstanding defense at Catcher saves a bit less than a base per game, the difference between an average offensive/great defensive Catcher and a great offensive/subpar defensive Catcher is roughly the same. So its a wash. Molina doesn’t give you a league average bat, that’s why he can’t play every day. Cervelli may hit enough to be average for the position, or he may not. But it’s much too soon to tell. He will need to maintain a league average bat to start in the bigs, we can agree on that.

His argument about the thought process that went into Scioscia’s decision is should be examined as well. Bengie Molina’s offensive production with the Angels wasn’t outstanding, and was actually poor in his early years with the team. From 2000-2005, his OPS+ annually (in order) was 84, 73, 58, 96, 88, 108. Jose Molina joined the Angels in 2001, posting similar numbers from 01-04 in a backup role. He wasn’t starting Bengie over Jose because Bengie was an outstanding hitter. Jose has a stark platoon split. He’s never been able to hit Righties, wheras Bengie has a more balanced profile. That’s why one was a starter and one was a backup, given the fact that you always face more Righties than Lefties. Cervelli’s splits in limited action in the bigs are similar to Jose Molina’s, but I would hate to think were drawing conclusions on a player based on 57 ABs (roughly 11 games), especially the first 57 of someone’s career.

There’s also the effect of a good relationship between the pitching staff and a catcher to consider. Cervelli has received universal praise from his battery mates, whereas we all know the issues that have arose between Posada and various pitchers over the years. Anything that makes your pitchers more comfortable leads to better Run Prevention, which unfortunately is still a largely undiscovered frontier of statistical analysis. That’s slowly changing, but if pitchers perform better with Cervelli behind the plate, then that should be added to his overall value as a player. If pitchers perform worse with Posada behind the dish, it should be subtracted from his ledger. But looking only at one side of the ledger (offensive production) you don’t get a complete sense of what the players contributes every day, especially at a position which is involved in every play of the game.

I have no doubt that Cervelli will be our backup Catcher next year, and probably for many, many years to come. He will back up the aging Posada and hold the fort until Montero is ready (est ETA 2010). But I believe Cervelli will catch more than Goldman does, possibly as much as 50-60 games next year, which is a more prominent role than being a pure backup Catcher. If he proves he can’t hit Righties like Molina, then he will be destined to backup status for the remainder of his career. But it’s FAR too soon to tell.

From Chad Jennings, we learn that the Yankees have called up Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Mark Melancon, Mike Dunn and Edwar Ramirez. No surprises there. Expect to see Shelley Duncan, Anthony Claggett, Juan Miranda and Brett Gardner get the call later, as well (Austin Jackson remains a possibility, too).

(props to RAB)

From Anthony McCarron (Daily News):

Despite his numbers, Matsui’s status with the Yankees is unclear. He is in the final season of a four-year, $52 million contract and the Yankees want to get younger and free up at-bats at designated hitter for Jorge Posada.

Matsui would not delve too deeply into his future Sunday.

“My honest answer is I don’t know,” Matsui said. “I don’t have an answer. As a player, you just try to do better than what you’ve done before. It’s not so much about how the organization or other clubs look at me. All I’m focused on is winning a championship.”

Would he prefer to stay in New York? “I try not to think about that,” he said. “I like New York, the Yankees, the Yankee fans. It’s definitely someplace I feel comfortable.”

If the Yankees lose Matsui in order to free up DH AB’s for Jorge Posada, then I suppose McCarron is assuming that Jose Molina—he’ll have to be resigned—or Francisco Cervelli will be given a substantial number of AB’s at catcher. Is that something the Yankees really want to commit to? Defensively, that’s a win-win, but offensively, I think it’s fair to question that notion. Matsui seems open to returning at a “bargain” rate and, if he’s willing to go year-to-year, then the Yankees should definitely bring him back. He’s a professional hitter that can be rotated in and out of the DH slot in order to give Posada ample rest as well as others. In this sense, Matsui’s knee problems actually help the Yankees in terms of DH flexibility (he can’t DH everyday).

I think the team knows just how important Matsui has been to the club in 2009 and, for that reason, I also think they’ll be very hesitant to simply let him walk after the season is over (a move which has been billed by many as a foregone conclusion). In fact, the only way I see that actually occurring is if Brian Cashman opts to bring Johnny Damon back as the team’s DH while adding Matt Holliday to man left. That way, they’re not losing Matsui’s offense, instead, they’re replacing it and simultaneously bettering their defensive game. That works, right?

What do you think about Matsui? Should the Yankees keep him around for 2010, or are you a fan of the rather ambiguous and inherently problematic rotating DH idea (no, I’m not biased at all)?

From Joel Sherman (NY Post):

Also, the Yanks continue to mull what is their best roster construction when Jose Molina returns from the DL. They love the energy and defense Francisco Cervelli has brought, but wonder if holding three catchers is prudent since they are not prepared yet to make Jorge Posada more of a full-time DH.I floated the possibility to a few Yankee officials of following the Met path: The Mets liked how Omir Santos played while Ramon Castro and starter Brian Schneider were on the DL, so when it was time to activate Castro, the Mets decided to trade him instead (to the White Sox) and commit to Santos as the backup. Could the Yanks look to deal Molina rather than activate him and commit to Cervelli as the backup? Yankee officials say there are no current plans to do that.

I think holding 3 catchers is a waste of roster space. For the past few days I’ve wondered why the Yankees don’t consider moving Molina if they like Cervelli as much as they say they do. Molina reportedly worked on his stamina in the offseason so that he could play the entire year if Jorge’s shoulder was a continued issue, therefore, if a team can absorb the impact of his weak bat, then they could possibly make a run at him as a full-time player. Plus, his defensive value is still very real, whether he’s a backup or an everyday guy. However, if you’re wondering what the Yankees could get for Molina, that’s the problem. I don’t see them getting anything very useful—i.e., a bullpen arm, etc—in return, especially if Molina is owed $2 million in the current market. It’s Jose Molina, not Mark DeRosa. Maybe that’s the case and they would rather hold on to him for that reason.

From Pete Abraham:

Xavier Nady has been cleared to play in an extended-spring-training game in Florida today. He has been on the disabled list since April 16 with a partially torn elbow ligament.
Nady, Jorge Posada (right hamstring), Jose Molina (left quad) and Cody Ransom (right quad) started working out at the team facility in Tampa yesterday.
Posada hopes to play in a game as early as tomorrow.
“It’s now a matter of getting into baseball shape,” he told The Associated Press after taking batting practice, throwing and running.

If Posada plans on getting into a game by tomorrow, you can expect both him and Nady back within 10 days. Nady’s return seems to create no issues with the roster. he will replace Angel Berroa, and will probably split time with Hideki Matsui and Nick Swisher once he can play the field. Posada’s return, However, brings to mind the question of what the Yankees are going to do once Molina is healthy as well, as the Yankees are unlikely to carry three catchers.

Frankie Cervelli has played well, showing great defensive skill while being poised at the plate. However, with Posada’s health a question mark, the Yankees may need to take roster considerations into their thought process. If they let Molina go so as to carry Cervelli and then Posada gets hurt again, they are left with Cash as the backup catcher once again. I would guess that they send Cervelli down to keep him in reserve in case of another injury. He will be given every chance to win the backup catching position in 2010.

Rebecca at TPBP recaps an interesting moment from last night’s game:

There’s one moment from tonight’s game that keeps cropping up in my mind, even a couple hours after it’s over.

It’s in the ninth inning; there are two outs with Carlos Gomez at first in a one run game, and Phil Coke is struggling to throw strikes.

Instead of, say, Jeter and Canó heading out to the mound to calm Phil Coke, it’s Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Peña.

It was a sight that I certainly noticed, as I am sure many Yankees fans did. Cervelli, Coke, and Pena are some of the lesser fruits of the labor that Brian Cashman has done to rebuild this farm system. Not everyone is destined to be star, nor is a system expected to churn out multiple stars every season. However, being able to fill in the fringes of the roster with homegrown players can be vitally important to the success of the team and the economic bottom line. Players like Cervelli and Pena keep the Yankees from having to run out and make a move to replace injured players or fill in on the bench.

Pena and Cervelli are what they are- very good defensive players who are not going to hit much, but are not overwhelmed at the plate. That was the scouting report on them, and that is what we have seen thus far. I can easily envision these two being members of the Yankees bench for a long time.