IMPORTANT BLOG ANNOUNCEMENT

PLEASE CHANGE YOUR BOOKMARKS AND FEEDS TO THE NEW URL, YANKEEANALYSTS.COM. TYU IS IN NO WAY AFFILIATED WITH THE NEW YORK YANKEES OR YANKEES UNIVERSE.

Catching Notes

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 4 Responses »
Feb 102011

There were two articles in the New York Daily News yesterday that involved catching, and more specifically, Jesus Montero. The first was from Anthony McCarron and it reminded us that Russell Martin is the team’s starting catcher. Despite that, Montero is obviously determined to catch (as he should be):

“I want to be behind the plate,” Montero said Tuesday during a break from a session in the batting cage. “I want to show everybody that I can catch with the Yankees.”

This hearkens back to something we heard from Montero about a year ago. It seems as if nothing’s going to keep Montero from working on his defense and becoming a viable catcher in the Majors. We should realize, though, that’s a process that won’t be complete any time soon. From GM Brian Cashman:

“Russell Martin is the starter,” Yankee GM Brian Cashman said Tuesday. “With Russell, it gives us the ability to transition to the next generation in the best way possible”

While Cashman acknowledges that Martin is the starter, he also makes what we were all already thinking known: Russell Martin is essentially a stopgap until Jesus Montero is ready to catch full time. That could be in 2011, it could be in 2012. We know that Jesus Montero will more-than-likely see time in the Majors at some point this season. The only question is the role that he’ll play. I can’t see him being with the big club unless he’s going to play every single day.

McCarron mentions the “competition” for back up catcher job involving Montero, Austin Romine, and Francisco Cervelli. This is about as much a competition as last year’s fifth starter competition was. This job is Francisco Cervelli’s, no matter what. Even if Montero and Romine rake in Spring Training while playing passable defense, there’s no way the Yankees put either one of them on the bench. While Romine’s stock dove in 2011, he’s still got upside and needs to be playing every day to improve. It doesn’t need saying, but I’ll say it anyway: Jesus Montero needs to be in the lineup every day.

Next, John Harper has notes about Montero being a keeper. This is obvious. I’ve argued all along that the Yankees need to keep Jesus Montero at almost any cost. Even if he can’t catch, his bat will still be cheap and is likely to play anywhere on the diamond, including DH and 1B. Harper shoots down the idea of the latter:

With Mark Teixeira signed for six more years, first base is not an option for Montero

Not so fast, John. Montero may not be able to play first base consistently for the next six years, but afterwards, the possibility is most definitely open. Tex’s contract expires after the 2016 season. Jesus Montero will turn 27 after the 2016 season. He will be entering his age-based prime and will have had a few years of experience at the ML level. Even playing first base would add positional value for the Yankees and Montero.

Harper ends the article with this:

If it’s Felix Hernandez, the decision is a no-brainer. But what if it’s Chris Carpenter? Surely Montero would be too much to give – unless the Yankees were three games out of the wild-card race and six behind the Red Sox.

Desperation could make that a call Cashman prays he doesn’t have to make.

1. The Mariners aren’t trading Felix Hernandez. Though I should note that Hernandez is the only type of player the Yankees should look to acquire if they trade Montero: a young, top-flight starting pitcher.
2. Harper’s right to say that Chris Carpenter is not worth giving up Montero. However, his caveat is also wrong. Even if that scenario comes true, the Yankees should NOT give up Montero for Carpenter–or anyone.

Tagged with: , , ,

CAIRO on the Bench

Posted by Sean P. at 3:00 pm 1 Response »
Jan 252011

CAIRO is the projection system set up by SG, the man behind the curtain over at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog. Since it’s pretty dead out there right now, I figured we could take a look at some bench candidates and how they might project in 2011.

Now to be fair, projecting players who have yet to play in the majors is extremely difficult. In the past I have tried to take a “rolling average” concept to these projections and come up with a ballpark number for each prospect. It’s just too difficult to tell exactly how someone will transition to the major leagues. So keep that in mind as we look ahead.

NAME POS PA SB HR AVG OBP SLG wOBA BRAR
Montero C 508 1 18 .261 .326 .446 .337 24
Adams 2B 386 6 6 .240 .314 .373 .306 6
Nunez SS 528 19 7 .257 .296 .350 .286 6
Romine C 502 4 10 .238 .281 .362 .283 6
Pena SS/3B 324 7 3 .244 .290 .324 .274 1
Cervelli C 292 3 2 .255 .326 .347 .303 5
Russo 2B 419 9 4 .243 .305 .328 .286 0
Curtis OF 483 4 9 .242 .303 .361 .295 -1

BRAR- Position adjusted Batting Runs Above Replacement

Much to the chagrin of Yankee fans everywhere, we know Francisco Cervelli and Ramiro Pena will probably make the team out of spring training. In lieu of the Yankees signing another utility player though, this might make the most sense.

Montero would obviously be an upgrade over Cervelli and I don’t think anyone would question that. However it would be smart for the Yankees to see how he looks in spring training and get him some more seasoning in AAA. As for Austin Romine, I don’t think there is any doubt he needs more development time. He should get regular at bats in Scranton to continue his progress.

It’s so very easy to hate on Ramiro Pena because he is so very bad at baseball. However his ability to play SS, 2B and 3B is a skill unmatched at this point by anyone aside from Eduardo Nunez. Is the difference in hitting ability from Eduardo Nunez to Ramiro Pena really big enough to make up for Nunez’s poor defense though? Probably not. And while I’d love to see David Adams in the majors this year, his broken ankle needs to be rehabbed prudently. Had he gone uninjured, he may have seen some AAA time and thus be primed for a stint in the Bronx this year. Obviously that never happened. So it would be best for him to continue to play every day and get healthy. He is a solid defender but doesn’t have the positional utility that Nunez or Pena does. Ultimately I think Adams could be a really nice piece so I hope he continues to develop and can stay healthy.

Russo looked overmatched at the plate in his brief stint in New York but I thought he held his own in the field. I don’t think he’s as bad as he played last season but WOW, is a .470 OPS scary as hell. As for Colin Curtis, I don’t really have a firm grasp on what his role would be with the Yankees. As Mike Axisa broke down, the last two spots on the roster will be filled by one positional player who can play SS (read Nunez/Pena) and the last probably with some ability in the outfield. I agree with Mike that there are probably better options for that last spot on the market.

I think in the best case scenario, Eduardo Nunez and David Adams eventually turn into players the Yankees can depend on off the bench. Nunez would be able to play SS, 2B and 3B and if Adams goes the super utility route, he’ll play 2B, 3B and some outfield. Eventually, Jesus Montero and Austin Romine will take over the catching duties full time for the Yankees, squeezing out Frankie Cervelli and Russell Martin. That’s obviously not a scenario in play for 2011 though. In the future the Yankees should have some nice assets able to compliment their starting 9. In 2010 though, we should expect to see more of Ramiro Pena and Francisco Cervelli.

Tagged with: , , , ,

Musing About The Bench

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am No Responses »
Jan 202011

The Yankees are on the cusp of signing veteran outfielder Andruw Jones to be the team’s first OF off of the bench. They signed Russell Martin to be the starting catcher for now, with Francisco Cervelli as the back up, and Jesus Montero on the way up. Jorge Posada will be the primary DH and could probably catch every once in a while. The team will also (likely) have Ramiro Pena and Eduardo Nunez to man the extra infield spots. Just so we can see it lined up:

OF–Andruw Jones
C–Francisco Cervelli
IF–Eduardo Nunez
IF–Ramiro Pena

Having two back up infielders may seem excessive, but the way the Yankees’ OF will be structured, I think it’s okay. All three starters are good enough both offensively and defensively that they won’t need many days off. Jones can spell one of Curtis Granderson or Brett Gardner against tough lefties and is also a balanced enough player that he wouldn’t need a replacement fielder after batting for one of those guys. The outfield is also, generally, younger than the infielders. Those guys–especially the guys on the left side–will need more days off for regular rest than Gradnerson, Gardner, or Nick Swisher will.

The big thing Joe Girardi will need to avoid is having the three weaker backups–Cervelli, Nunez, and Pena–in the lineup all at the same time. I’m sure at some point this will happen, likely because of late inning defensive replacement (LIDR) moves. I doubt that Girardi will ever put all three of them into the starting lineup in a game that matters.

The catching rotation will depend on two things: How Russell Martin and Jesus Montero start the season. For arbitration/free agency reasons, I’m sure the Yankees will look to keep Montero in Scranton-Wilkes Barre for at least the first month or two of the season. If Martin falters, though, and Montero mashes, we could see the Montero Era start sooner rather than later. That would do one of two things: send Francisco Cervelli back to the minor leagues or mean the end of Russell Martin as a Yankee.

Where we could see some interesting maneuvering is with Jorge Posada. Obviously, he can catch. He won’t be doing it much considering his spot as a full time DH, but he can do it. Perhaps some rest will do him well when he does get a chance to catch. Posada could also be called upon to play first when Mark Teixeira needs a day off, though I imagine that duty would fall to Nick Swisher first, with Andruw Jones taking RF for the day.

Aside from the eventual call up of Jesus Montero, the performance of Brandon Laird could also shape the bench as the season moves along. Laird’s been a third basemen for his entire minor league career, but played outfield in the Arizona Fall League this past season. If he can keep up the bat that’s advanced him through the minors, while playing non-statue defense at third and in the outfield in early 2011, we could see him swapped out for one of Pena or Nunez. Greg Golson could also make a play as an LIDR and we could easily see Colin Curtis get some playing time, too.

The Yankee bench may not be sparkling, but what team has a sparkling bench? No matter what, the bench in the Bronx will feature either young or cheap parts that will not be heard to replace. This, like the bullpen-building strategy, is one that has a lot of advantages, especially for a team like the Yankees.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , ,

Expectations

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 3:00 pm 5 Responses »
Jan 032011

A new year is upon us and soon, a new baseball season will be upon us. We’re going to have expectations with certain players, as we always do. We have to think of realistic expectations, though. For this post, I’m going to look at each player still on the Yankees from the 2010 team, examine his 2010 wOBA and see if that’s a reasonable expectation for 2011.

Robinson Cano, .389 wOBA

Last year was a career year for Robinson. He ripped the cover off the ball and everything seemed to click for him on offense. He ripped righties and lambasted lefties. He hit for a high average. He hit for power. Expecting another year like that would be unfair, but, Cano is in his age-based-prime and clearly has an incredible talent for hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a .389 wOBA from him again. Somewhere in the .375-.385 range seems right for Robinson.

Nick Swisher, .377 wOBA

Cutting the fat, yeah, I think this is definitely do-able. His 2009 wOBA was .375, just two points off of last year’s career high mark. He had basically the same year production-wise, he just did it differently. I’m confident that Swisher can definitely put up a .370+ woBA again in 2011. What I’m not sure of is if it will look more like 2009 with a lot of walks and a lot of power or if it will look like 2010, with similar-but-slightly-diminished-power and a higher average.

Mark Teixeira, .367 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Mark Teixeira will have a wOBA higher than .367 in 2011.

Alex Rodriguez, .363 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Alex Rodriguez will have a wOBA higher than .363 in 2011.

Brett Gardner, .358 wOBA

This is the most interesting case. Obviously, Gardner proved himself in 2010. He survived the entire year and hit much better than we all expected him to. His super-plus defense made him a huge value for the team . Part of me thinks that Gardner can do it again. Part of me doesn’t. If I’m setting an over/under for Gardner’s wOBA, I’m going to say .340.

Jorge Posada, .357 wOBA

Posada’s another catch-22 of sorts. In one way, we should expect equal or worse performance from Posada in 2011 because he’s getting old. Older players, especially catchers, tend not to hit at .357 wOBAs with regularity. On the other hand, Posada is a good hitter who’s stayed above average in terms of offense for a while. As a full time DH, he’ll be without the physical burden of catching. Because of that, we could see a rise in offense from Jorge. I think .357 is a fair over/under and I think Jorge will be over. I may be in the minority there.

Curtis Granderson, .346 wOBA

Curtis Granderson’s season was a bit odd, wasn’t it? There were some good things–10% walk rate, .221 IsoP–but some bad things as well (most of the season against LHP). All together, it added up to an above average, but not spectacular, .346 wOBA. Call me an optimist, but Granderson will out do that .346 wOBA. I’ll put the over/under at .355 and take the over.

Derek Jeter, .320 wOBA

I have no problem saying this: Derek Jeter will have a higher wOBA than .320 in 2011. Jeter may be getting older and 2010 may’ve been a career worst year, but there’s no way he can hit that poorly again. At least, I hope there’s no way he can hit that poorly again.

Francisco Cervelli, .315 wOBA

This is fair and I expect him to do that again. If he does, with less playing time, I’ll be happy.

Russell Martin, .306 wOBA

His 2009 wOBA was .307 after a .351 wOBA in 2008. Martin’s bat seems to be trending downwards, which is troubling. Despite a super low wOBA though, he was able to put up over 2 fWAR in 2010, thanks to his defense. In the last two years, Martin has had a low BABIP despite relatively high LD%s, so maybe 2011 is when he gets a BABIP rebound. That would definitely cause a wOBA rebound. Given the last two years, I think we should expect around a .310-.315 wOBA for Martin, but he could easily out perform that.

Ramiro Pena, .233 wOBA

Same as Cervelli.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Francisco Cervelli, Backup Catcher: No More, No Less

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 3:00 pm 8 Responses »
Dec 272010


One Yankees player who inspires some strong emotions among members of the fanbase is Francisco Cervelli. He started 2010 very hot, with a .387 wOBA in April fooling some into believing that he was an everyday player. With Jorge Posada’s defense continuing to deteriorate, a rapidly growing portion of the fanbase called for Cervelli to steal the starter’s job from Jorge. However, Frankie regressed terribly at the plate from June through August, and was not much better in the field. The bloom was off the rose, to the point where many called for him to be sent down to the minors.

This offseason, Cervelli was nearly traded for Russell Martin, and the Yankees have made it fairly clear that they do not trust Frankie in anything more than a backup capacity. Some Yankees fans have gone so far to say that he “sucks” and want him off the roster. However, a look at his numbers, and more importantly, the competition at backup catcher, shows that he is a solid backup and is a perfectly reasonable player to keep on the roster while he is cheap.

Cervelli finished 27th (min. 120 PA’s) among all catchers in wRC+ last season (94), and was 28th in WAR (min. 60 PA’s). Now, that does not mean he was the 28th best catcher, as WAR is a cumulative stat and his unfortunate amount of playing time helped him build value relative to some backup types who may be better than him. But wRC+ is a normalized rate statistic, and it suggests that Frankie was right on the fringe of starting quality as a hitter. MLB catchers as a group hit an atrocious .249/.319/.381, while Frankie turned in a .271/.359/.335. A lot of that line can be attributed to a high BABIP in April, May, and September (where he OPS’ed at least .768 in each month), but his struggles in the middle months (.548 OPS or below) saw some fairly hard luck as well. To put his season in perspective, since 2004 only one Yankees backup has had a better OPS+ than Cervelli (88) did this year (Jose Molina in ’07, and that was in 71 PA’s). Overall, it seems clear that if you were to make an evaluation based on 2010, Cervelli would be ahead of most backup catchers in terms of offense.

As for defense, Cervelli had a tough season, and most metrics have him near the bottom of the league defensively. However, it is important to note that he caught the incredibly wild AJ Burnett practically exclusively, which likely hurt him in terms of blocking pitches and throwing out potential base-stealers. Some, like our own Steve S., have contended that Frankie is actually a much better defensive player than we saw in 2010, but I do not think it is fair to make that assumption at this point without more evidence. The best we can do is mix some scouting into our evaluation and conclude that Cervelli is likely a bit better defensively and a bit worse offensively than he was in 2010, which would likely make him one of the 5 or 10 best backups in the sport.

Some would say that while it is fair to say that Frankie is better than most backups, the issue is that he was the starter in 2010. While this is absolutely true, it misses the point on how the Yankees should view him going forward. He is a poor starter, but the club has already made that determination and now must evaluate his ability in the right context, as a possible backup. When planning for 2011, the club needs to look at how his 2010 would position him among others who might fill the backup role. In a league where guys like Wil Nieves, Chris Widger, and Sal Fasano types are continually recycled due to a dearth of major league catching talent, Cervelli grades out as a bad player but an above average backup catcher.

Of course, it is fairly likely that this is all moot by midseason, assuming Russell Martin and Jesus Montero play well enough in Spring Training and early in the season to push Cervelli out of the catching rotation. If Montero looks ready in ST, it might make sense for the Yankees to trade Cervelli before his value dips due to being sent down. He could actually start for a few clubs, as there is a severe dropoff in talent after the first 20 catchers or so. However, if the Yankees decide to keep him, Cervelli should serve as a perfectly adequate backup catcher.

Tagged with: , ,

If Martin, then what?

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 5 Responses »
Dec 082010

Last night, I posed a bit of a question on Twitter. I asked, if the Yankees sign Russell Martin, which is definitely a possibility, what happens to their current catchers?

Jorge Posada doesn’t count. He’s the DH. I’m sure he’ll see a handful (more maybe a bit more than that) at catcher, but he’s no longer a C/DH. He’s a DH/C. I mean Jesus Montero and Francisco Cervelli. There are two ways I see this shaking out:

A) The acquisition of Russell Martin means that Jesus Montero will not be starting the season with the New York Yankees. Now, we can take that two ways. One means that the Yankees sign Martin and use him as a starting catcher while Jesus Montero gets a little more seasoning in AAA. There are obvious advantages to this. While Montero raked in the second half, a little more time in the minors (usually) never hurt anyone (Ryan Howard, Andrew McCutchen). He could work on his approach at the plate which, while good, could probably use some fine tuning. He did have solid walk rate of 9.1%, but his K% jumped up to just over 20%. The 20% K rate isn’t that bad considering Montero’s power, but it’s the highest of his career by far. And there were all sorts of conflicting reports about his defense. Was it improved? Did it deteriorate? Letting him work on it for a bit in the minors without real pressure would be a good thing. The seasoning argument is definitely one that can be made.

The other thought is that if Montero isn’t with the Yankees to start 2011, it’ll be because the Yankees will have traded him. I’m not sold that this will happen, but if the Yankees sign Martin after failing to sign Cliff Lee, it’s a possibility. That possibility is even more ramped up if Andy Pettitte does indeed retire. I’m not exactly sure this course of action is even necessary, but I definitely won’t rule it out.

B) Acquiring Russell Martin makes Francisco Cervelli very expendable. Moshe Tweeted that he thinks this will happen. If the Yankees sign Martin, Cervelli will be moved for depth in the form of a reliever/platoon bat/utility guy, if not sent down. Sending Cervelli down wouldn’t be an awful idea. If Montero’s on the big team catching and Martin is there, too, there is no need for Cervelli. Starting him in AAA allows the Yankees to let Austin Romine begin the year at AA. He hit a bit of a wall last year and could use some extra time in the Eastern League before moving to the International League. The counter to that, though, is that putting him in AAA ruins Cervelli’s trade value a bit.

Cervelli’s value is already low since a) he’s not that good and b) had a (perceived) bad season in 2010. Having him start in AAA shoots that value even more. But, at the same time, it’s not like Cervelli would be the centerpiece of a trade or bring more than what Moshe suggested. If the Yankees get Martin, I don’t care much what they do with Cervelli. Trade him? Fine. Stash him in AAA for a rainy day? Cool.

Out of these options, though, I guess I’d go with option A.1: letting Martin start for a time while Montero gets some more seasoning in Scranton. I think Montero is definitely ready to start for the Yankees behind the plate, but it wouldn’t hurt for him to see more AAA at bats first.

Other notes: It appears my Mark Prior wish could come true. I don’t know how much upside is there anymore, but it’s worth it. I think we’ve all always wanted Prior in some way. Now, the Yankees could have him.

Friend of the blog Tyler Wilkinson had a suggestion last night. If the divisions were named after players, whom would each be named for? My thoughts:

ALE: Babe Ruth
ALC: Ty Cobb
ALW: Rod Carew
NLE: Jackie Robinson
NLC: Stan Musial
NLW: Willie Mays

What do you guys think?

Tagged with: , , , , ,

What The Failed Cervelli-Martin Trade Tells Us

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 3 Responses »
Dec 032010

According to Michael Schmidt, the Yankees and Dodgers came close to swapping catchers on Wednesday, with the Yankees nearly acquiring Russell Martin for Francisco Cervelli. I said the following about Martin a few weeks ago:

Martin’s career has evaporated over the last two seasons, but he would likely represent an upgrade defensively behind the plate over every catcher that the Yankees have, and he still has some pop in his bat. He could take the Cervelli role in the 3-headed Yankee catching monster while allowing Jesus Montero to ease onto the roster slowly. If the Yankees get lucky, he could revert back to his old self and become an extremely valuable trade chip or allow the Yankees to explore trading some of their catching assets.

A deal could not be reached and Martin was subsequently non-tendered. Although I am sure the Yankees will pursue Martin now that he is freely available, he is likely to get offers from clubs willing to make him their everyday catcher. Regardless of whether he actually becomes a Yankee, Brian Cashman’s pursuit of him tells us a few things about the Yankees’ catching situation.

1) Jorge Posada is done as a primary catcher. He mentioned wanting to come to camp to compete for the starting job, but the Yankees’ search for another catcher suggests that if Montero does not win it, the Yankees are not comfortable handing the job to Posada. He will likely be treated as a backup catcher, getting 40 or so starts behind the plate while serving as the primary DH.

2) The 2010 season confirmed for the Yankees what many of us already knew: Cervelli is a backup catcher who should not be starting more than 50 or so games in a season. He is not good enough offensively or defensively to justify more responsibility, and was exposed by too much playing time in 2010. As such, the Yankees tried to acquire a catcher they could use as the starter should Montero prove to be not ready.

Failing to bring in Martin is not a huge deal, as the Yankees should be able to piece something together with their current catching options. But as the pursuit of Martin revealed, the Yankees are not particularly comfortable handing the position to Posada and Cervelli again if Montero ends up needing more minor league seasoning.

Tagged with: , , ,

Can Lefties In The Rotation Help Montero Adjust?

Posted by Moshe Mandel at 1:00 pm 10 Responses »
Nov 162010

With Jesus Montero being given a chance to win the starting catcher’s job in spring training, the development of his defense has become an important issue facing the Yankees going into 2011. A few days ago, Joel Sherman raised a point that many have brought up:

The Yankees, for example, want Montero to win this job. But he will play at 21 and — at best — has a lot of rough defensive edges. Last year it took him half a season as among the youngest players in the International League to gain comfort and shine at Triple-A. So the same growing pains should be expected in the majors, at the least. Will the Yankees tolerate such growing pains when they have championship aspirations?

In terms of offense, Montero will largely be taking plate appearances that belonged to Frankie Cervelli, so I think the club and the fans can handle some growing pains in that area. However, considering that there have been significant doubts about his ability to field his position, a disastrous start behind the plate could make for a major blow to both his confidence and his value. I do think that if the Yankees are able to sign Cliff Lee and bring back Andy Pettitte, they can set up a catching rotation that would help ease Montero into the big leagues.

The element of a catcher’s game that tends to get noticed the most by fans is his ability to handle the running game. A catcher who is being run on constantly will be deemed an awful catcher who is turning singles into doubles by dint of his slow and inaccurate arm. One thing that helps slow down a running game no matter the talent of the receiver is to have a left-handed pitcher on the mound.

Right-handed pitchers faced 133,598 batters in 2010, and allowed 2306 stolen bases against 834 caught stealing (73.4% success rate). That means 3140 attempted steals, or one attempt every 42.5 plate appearances. Conversely, lefties faced 51,927 batters and allowed 653 steals to 295 runners caught (69% success rate). That means 948 attempted steals, or one attempt every 54.8 plate appearances. While these stats do not account for a variety of factors, they do suggest that the idea that lefties help diminish the opponent’s running game is accurate. Runners steal less frequently and at a lower success rate when a left-hander is on the mound.

Taking that fact into account, the Yankees should help ease Montero into the major league catching position by allowing him to catch all of the lefties in the rotation. Hopefully, there will be 3 of them, all of them very good pitchers who limit baserunners to begin with. Cliff Lee has seen an average of 10 baserunners attempt to steal on him per season, while Andy Pettitte is a pickoff artist who averages 18 attempts against. CC Sabathia averages 23, but that number is skewed by 2 poor seasons to starts his career, and he is typically somewhere around 18-20. By comparison, righty pitchers such Tim Lincecum, Carl Pavano, and Jered Weaver had 30+ attempts against them in 2010, and AJ Burnett was on the hill for a whopping 42 attempts this past season.

The Yankees can have Montero catch most of the starts by Sabathia, Lee, and Pettitte, assuming the latter two sign. Jorge Posada would catch Phil Hughes, while Frankie Cervelli can handle AJ Burnett. The idea is not to hide Montero or have him do this for his entire career. Rather, this is an attempt to have Montero adjust to catching at the major league level by working with pitchers that can help the limit the damage that his inexperience and weaknesses might otherwise cause. Once Jesus feels comfortable behind the plate, the team can move to a different arrangement.

What do you think of this idea?

Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,

What to do at Catcher?

Posted by Steve S. at 9:01 am 7 Responses »
Oct 272010

One of the trickiest areas to address this off season is the Yankee Catcher position. As we all saw during the ALDS, an aggressive base running team like the Rangers can expose the Yankee defensive deficiencies and is a major problem in the playoffs. It’s becoming generally accepted that 39 year old Jorge Posada will see less time at the position next year, yet most Yankee observers think Francisco Cervelli can’t hit enough to play the position full time.

This has led many fans to the notion that super-prospect Jesus Montero could be the answer. It’s already being discussed, Brian Cashman said this at his year end press conference:

“I do have people who believe he is ready at the catching position with a tremendous offensive bat,” Cashman said. “But nothing gets handed to somebody. You have to take it and earn it. He’ll have a chance to come to spring training and fight for something, and he’ll either show he is ready for something at a higher level or not.”

There’s little question his bat is ready. The issue with Montero has always been his glove, especially at a defense-intensive position like Catcher. BP’s Kevin Goldstien recently had this to say about Montero:

Some would argue that Montero is the best pure hitter in the minors, as the 20-year-old hit .351/.396/.684 during the second half of the season for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Despite his tender age, he’s big-league ready, and now the question is where he’ll play on the field. He’s made great strides behind the plate, but the upgrade is merely from embarrassing to simply bad. Few scouts see him as an upgrade over the slow, deficient and aging Posada. No matter where Montero ends up, the bat is going to play in the middle of the order for one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball.—Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

I always weight the opinions of outside observers over those you hear coming from the team, since teams have an obvious interest in promoting their own prospects for trade purposes. The fact that Montero has been dangled twice in potential deals (Halladay/Lee) makes me suspect the internal evaluation of Montero is much closer to BPs than it is to what the Yanks say publicly. As such, a platoon of Posada-Montero looks like a license to steal for the American League. That won’t go over well with the Yankee manager, who himself was a defensive-oriented Catcher and will have much to say about how these pieces are employed. It also won’t go over well with the Yankee pitchers, some of whom have had their issues with Jorge throughout the years. Hard throwers like CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain need a backstop who can block their hard breaking pitches in the dirt, and the aging Posada and unathletic Montero both suffer in that area.

This leads us to Cervelli, who is an uninspiring option in the eyes of most Yankee fans, and for good reason. His bat is weak, posting an .694 OPS for the 2010 season in half a season (314 PAs) worth of work. After a strong 2009 where he threw out 43% of baserunners, he followed that in 2010 with a piddling 14% caught stealing rate, which was even worse than Posada’s rate of 15%. Some of that is certainly due to being AJ Burnett’s personal catcher, since AJ makes little to no effort to hold runners on and gives Cervelli little chance. All reports I’ve seen have Cervelli with better ‘pop times’ than Posada (time it takes to catch and throw to 2nd) so we shouldn’t read into this that Cervelli is worse at throwing out baserunners than Jorge is. But suffice to say that neither Yankee Catcher was able to control the running game last year, and teams noticed this and those who had the skills to take advantage, did. Futher, Cervelli wasn’t much better than Jorge at blocking the plate. He allowed just two passed balls in 2010 but a whopping 35 wild pitches while Posada allowed 32, so neither Yankee catcher was able to block the plate with any effectiveness last season. To put these numbers in some context, Miguel Olivo led Baseball with 49 WP as an everyday Catcher. Defensive liability Victor Martinez threw out 22% of baserunners. If you put both Jorge and Cervelli’s numbers together, they would have been at the bottom of baseball in CS%, and led in wild pitches and passed balls among qualifying players at their position.

Some have suggested importing a free agent like John Buck on a 1 year deal, but he’s not exactly a defensive specialist either. The teams that have given the Yanks the most trouble in recent years are the ones that run the bases aggressively.  For years, the Angels gave the Yankee all sorts of trouble by running all over them, and now the Rays and Rangers have picked up where they left off. What’s worse, there doesn’t appear to be a solution at hand for the 2011 campaign. Brian Cashman will need to work the phones to find himself a catch and throw backstop if the Yanks hope to reverse this trend anytime soon.


Tagged with: , ,

Money Savers and Drainers

Posted by Matt Imbrogno at 11:00 am 3 Responses »
Oct 262010

As I like to do every season, I’m going to compare the Yankee players’ theoretical fWAR dollars to their actual salaries and see which players gave the Yankees the most value and which players drained the most money. We’ll do batters today and pitchers tomorrow.

We’ll do the list in WAR order (nine highest), then we’ll sum it up at the end.

1. Robinson Cano, 6.4 fWAR worth $25.5MM. Salary: $9MM. Value: +$16.5MM
2. Brett Gardner, 5.4 fWAR worth $21.6 MM. Salary: $0.425MM. Value: +$21.175MM
3. Nick Swisher, 4.1 fWAR worth $16.4MM. Salary: $6.75MM. Value: +$9.65MM.
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3.9 fWAR worth $15.3MM. Salary: $32MM. Value: -$16.7MM.
5. Curtis Granderson, 3.6 fWAR worth $14.3MM. Salary: $5.5MM. Value: +$8.8MM.
6. Mark Teixeira, 3.5 fWAR worth $14.00MM. Salary: $20MM. Value: -6.00MM.
7. Derek Jeter, 2.5 fWAR worth $9.8MM. Salary: $21MM. Value: -$11.2MM
8. Jorge Posada, 2.4 fWAR worth $9.7MM. Salary: $13.1MM. Value: -$3.3MM.
9. Francisco Cervelli, 1.1 fWAR worth $4.4MM. Salary: $0.418MM. Value: +$3.82MM

Value Ranks:
1. Gardner
2. Cano
3. Swisher
4. Granderson
5. Cervelli
6. Posada
7. Teixeira
8. Jeter
9. Rodriguez

Italics means negative value.

This list should really surprise no one. The Yankees’ high priced, older talent had a bad collective 2010. Brett Gardner had what will likely be his career year while making just over the league minimum, so of course he’s going to return great value. And despite our frustrations with him, Frankie Cervelli did give the Yankees a bit of value this year. I think we’ll see the Melky Plan with Francisco: hang on to him while he’s cheap, then jettison him when he starts hitting arbitration and starts making too much money.

It also turns out that the Granderson deal was not some horrid thing that should’ve been undone. Granderson is relatively cheap for next year ($8.25) but goes up a bit in 2012 and ’13 ($10, $13 option) so granting a rebound year, he should return good value next year as well.

Nick Swisher makes only $9.75 next year so assuming he can repeat this year–or do something between 2010 and 2009–he’ll probably return value again, too.

As for the guys in the red, Teixeira is the only most likely to bounce back, considering his relatively young age compared to Jeter and Rodriguez and Posada. He also plays the least physically demanding position of the three and had a down year with the bat. I don’t think we’ll see the aforementioned trio in the black unless they have monster years.

Check back tomorrow when we look at the pitchers, starters and relievers.

Tagged with: , , , , , , , ,
Older Entries
© 2011 TYU Suffusion theme by Sayontan Sinha