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Dec 162010

You're on my no-trade list for a reason

-Jon Heyman is reporting Andy Pettitte is likely to come back, because his family can’t wait to get him out of the house supports it. That wind you feel on the back of your neck is the result of millions Yankee fans exhaling at the same time.

-Kerry Wood appears close to landing where he started, signing a deal with the Cubbies. No details are available yet, but there were reports he was offered a 2 year contract by the crosstown ChiSox, so we’ll guess this deal is similar. As good as Wood was for the Yanks last year, posting a 0.69 ERA and stabilizing a shaky bridge to Mariano, it had the markings of luck all over it. I think it’s safe to say he wasn’t going to maintain his 625 ERA+ had he returned. His 2 year/20.5 mil deal with the Indians was an unmitigated disaster, so you can’t be too upset over this one.

-Former Yankee Xavier Nady has landed with the Diamondbacks, good for him.

-Yanks are hot and heavy after Bobby Jenks. Since there are no top of the rotation starters left this off season, expect the Yanks to take some of the 24 mil they saved on Cliff Lee to bolster their bullpen. Joel Sherman reports they’re targeting 2 relief pitchers, a starter with questionable health (not Webb) and a righty bat with some pop for the OF. They’ll wind up being deeper and less top heavy as a result of not signing Lee, and I like it.

-This one goes into the ‘Anatomy of a rumor’ file. A reporter from the Seattle Times innocently posts in his blog a piece asking ” Should the Ms take advantage of the Yankee desperation and listen to offers for Felix?” The next thing you know, it spreads like wildfire. WEEI reports it as if it’s actually happening (and we can all just imagine the reactions among Red Sox fans in cars and homes across Boston). Soon thereafter luminaries from Keith Law to Joel Sherman and Ken Rosenthal all reported on the subject. Jon Heyman even got Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik to weigh in on the topic. Friend of TYU Craig Calcaterra seemed to be the only one who saw this for what it is, a silly rumor with nothing to it.

From the BBWAA:

Seattle Mariners righthander Felix Hernandez may have had trouble posting victories in 2010, but he was a convincing winner in the voting for the American League Cy Young Award. Hernandez, known as “King Felix,” was crowned despite posting a victory total that was the lowest for any winner in either league among starting pitchers in a full season and matched the lowest for a winning starter in any season.

Pitching for a team that averaged only 3.2 runs per game, Hernandez compiled a 13-12 record with a league-leading 2.27 ERA in 34 starts. He also led the league in innings (249 2/3) and finished second in strikeouts with 232, one behind Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim righthander Jered Weaver.

CC Sabathia finished in 3rd place, right behind David Price of the Rays. Felix won the award fairly comfortably, receiving 21 of 28 first place votes, with Price nabbing 4 and CC the remaining 3. The remaining pitchers to receive votes were, in order of finish: Lester, Weaver, Buchholz, Lee, Soriano, Cahill, Soria, Liriano, and Verlander.

Felix was a deserving winner, and I have no major issues with how the voting shook out. I likely would have had Cliff Lee and Francisco Liriano higher than they finished, but I do not have a huge problem with writers recognizing other pitchers with 4th and 5th place votes. Congratulations to CC Sabathia on an excellent season, and hopefully he can move up a few spots on this list in 2011.

This is an extremely touchy subject that I have held off on posting about for a while due to its incredibly volatile and incendiary nature. That said, I think the time is ripe for some brief thoughts on the issue, and then I hope you will join me in a reasoned discussion in the comments.

In 2008, Nicholas Kristoff wrote an op-ed article in the Times about the possibility that Barack Obama was facing racism from non-racists. He explained:

John Dovidio, a psychologist at Yale University who has conducted this study over many years, noted that conscious prejudice as measured in surveys has declined over time. But unconscious discrimination — what psychologists call aversive racism — has stayed fairly constant……

Faced with a complex decision, he said, aversive racists feel doubts about a black person that they don’t feel about an identical white. “These doubts tend to be attributed not to the person’s race — because that would be racism — but deflected to other areas that can be talked about, such as lack of experience,” he added.

To state it simply, many of us believe ourselves to be non-racists, but still harbor some unconscious stereotypes and aversions that we are hardwired for culturally. So what does this have to do with sports? I believe that this sort of “racism without racists” creeps up from time to time in discussions and judgements about athletes.

Before I bring an example and expand this discussion, I want to make something very clear. I AM NOT ACCUSING ANYONE OF BEING A RACIST. On the contrary, I am suggesting that as human beings, we have absorbed some of the cultural biases that surround us, and therefore make unconscious judgements and decisions that would be at least slightly racist were they made knowingly. Furthermore, although the op-ed was in reference to President Obama, please leave politics out of your comments. This is a discussion about “racism without racists” in sports.

This topic has been rolling around my head since I saw the following quotes in a Jayson Stark article. Stark asked a number of talent evaluators to choose between Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander, and all chose Hernandez. However, this comment by one of the evaluators caught my eye:

“Now we’ll see what the contracts do to both guys. It won’t faze Verlander, but I guess it’s possible Felix could get a little complacent. His makeup doesn’t suggest it, but you never know.

When I posted this comment on Twitter, a number of followers had the same reaction that I did. Namely, if it is not in the character of either player to be fazed by his new deal, why would Felix be the one to be singled out as a slight possibility to become complacent? To me, this hinted at the issue discussed in the op-ed linked above. Verlander is white, while Felix is not, and the speaker unconsciously attributed complacency to the non-white.

Chris briefly touched upon this dichotomy earlier in the week, when discussing Robbie Cano’s lack of speed. he noted that Joe Buck referred to him as a burner a number of times during the World Series, and suggested the following:

In addition, though I am hesitant to say this in fear of a backlash, there are longstanding ethnic and racial stereotypes which distinguish minorities as “fast runners,” so I wonder if this is also implicitly at play with guys like Robinson Cano and Orlando Hudson. This is a difficult issue to discuss, but, as many academics have noted, it is a characterization that exists.

I think Chris was spot on with his analysis here. Cano, in particular, seems to be a magnet for this sort of rhetoric. In fact, as I was writing this post, Bob Klapisch posted an article in which he suggested Dustin Pedroia would look good in pinstripes, for the following reasons:

Yes, we know the Yankees have the more talented second baseman in Robinson Cano. The Bronx incumbent is smooth, super-cool and has a hitting DNA to die for. But Pedroia plays harder and has a greater emotional investment in the day-to-day outcome of his team. In other words, he cares more than Cano.

There is absolutely no way for Klapisch to know which of the two cares more. All I know is that Robinson Cano is always working on his craft, tinkering with his swing all offseason. When he struggled in 2008, he spent his entire All Star break attempting to fix his swing. Is it possible that he occasionally loses focus on the field? Sure, and people should be quick to point it out when it happens. But to state unequivocally that he cares less than Pedroia is irresponsible, and is, in my opinion, an embodiment of the “racism without racists” mindset.

Baseball fans are commonly exposed to this sort of dichotomy, in which white players are often presented as gritty and do everything they can to maximize their talents, while minority players are “athletic” and “smooth,” and “make it look easy out there.” The successes of white players are attributed to effort, while the successes of non-white players are explained by inherent ability. Failures by minorities players are often explained by pointing to a lack of effort. Failures by white players have a way of occasionally being rationalized away or even forgotten. Paul O’Neill failed to run out two balls in Game 3 of the 1999 World Series. I am a huge O’Neill fan, and I had no idea about this story until recently. It did absolutely nothing to diminish O’Neill’s reputation, and he never got dubbed lazy or inattentive. I wonder whether a player from a minority group would have emerged equally unscathed.

Some will say that I am making mountains out of molehills, and that in most ways, sports have become post-racial. I have a hard time accepting that viewpoint. As I have noted elsewhere, there were racial conflagrations in American cities in the 90’s. Race is still a touchy subject, and one that still touches many issues and spheres of life. Just because there is not overt racism in the judgment of ballplayers does not mean that long standing beliefs colored by racial undertones have not seeped into those judgments.

I stated earlier that I did not intend to call the writers and baseball men referenced above racists, and I want to reiterate that point here. Those quoted above are not “bad” people, nor should they be censured for the things they wrote or said. Rather, I am simply pointing out that we are all a product of the society in which we were cultivated, and our society is not yet finished with issues of race. We have thankfully moved from an era where overt racism in sports is the norm to one where it is exceedingly rare. But latent racism still exists in the sports world, and we do ourselves a disservice by ignoring it or acting like it is not an issue. Only by candidly discussing it can we hope to make it a thing of the past.

From the excellent Craig Calcaterra D.J. Short over at Circling The Bases, we get word of two likely Yankee targets involved in discussions that would preclude them from making it to free agency. The first link D.J. provides is from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro:

Sometime this week the Marlins plan to have discussions with agent Matt Sosnick regarding a contract for Josh Johnson.

Whether there is movement on a multiyear deal will depend on a key factor.

Sosnick claims if the Marlins will guarantee a four-year deal then he will listen.

Arbitration-eligible for the second time, Johnson is in line to make about $4.2 million in 2010, if both sides don’t reach a multiyear agreement for the 6-foot-7 right-hander.

Johnson is just beginning to blossom as a star pitcher, with 2009 being his first full “ace” type year. He required Tommy John surgery for an elbow injury that cost him chunks of 2007 and 2008, but is now fully healthy and seems ready to take that next step into stardom at just 26. He would garner a huge contract in free agency, but is unlikely to ever reach that point. Even if Johnson does not sign a deal with Florida, they are certain to trade him to reap a return from his departure. The cost in prospects will be extremely high, and I doubt the Yankees will be willing to give up the pieces necessary to get him. The only hope may be that Johnson refuses to sign with the club that acquires him, which would allow him to test the free agent market as a 28 year old in his prime.

The second link is to a story from Nick Cafardo about Felix Hernandez:

Talks between the Mariners and Hernandez’s agent, Alan Nero, are getting serious, and there’s more optimism that a long-term deal can get done this offseason. The Mariners have been aggressive signing players (Chone Figgins) and making trades (Cliff Lee, Casey Kotchman, Milton Bradley), and consider Hernandez the building block of their franchise.

I have a hard time seeing Felix play anywhere but Seattle. Mariners GM Jack Z is a shrewd fellow, and I am sure that he recognizes that a player of Hernandez’ caliber does not come around very often. Seattle is not a small market club, and should be able to afford Felix, who can certainly be the pitching star for that franchise for a long, long time. Seattle clearly wants to contend for the next few seasons, and keeping their ace is an important element of that plan. I am sorry, Yankee fans, but it seems like King Felix is staying in Seattle.

Photo: Hernandez- Getty Images, Johnson- SI.com

Nov 252009

Roy may be wearing a new red cap

Is anyone else not all that worried if the Red Sox get Roy Halladay?

To be clear, I don’t think it will happen with them for the same reason it won’t happen with us. Despite their recent statements to the contrary, the Blue Jays really don’t want to deal him in division if at all possible. They’ll use both teams to drive the price up and then trade him for the next best package that comes from out of their division. They don’t want to see him in the visitors dugout 19 games next year, possibly pitching 4-5 games against them. The fact that he’s so popular in Toronto makes it an even tougher pill for fans up there to swallow. For most of the past few seasons, having the best pitcher on either team was all that Blue Jays fans had to hang their hat on when facing the Yanks or Sox. Trading him is bad enough, trading him to their rival would really be rubbing it in.

But I just can’t get all worked up if the Sox unload their farm system AND give a 100+ mil extension for a 33 year old (next season) pitcher. I think it’s bad move, if you look at the entire deal and not just the first few seasons. It’s the kind of move bad, desperate teams make and moves like this are a big part of why some teams are bad more often than not. Halladay makes sense for the Phillies, and where they are on the win curve. He’s that one piece that can put them over the top. For the Yanks or the Sox, trading away a Joba/Hughes/Buccholtz plus another top bat to get him, you’re trading away more productivity than you will receive in all likelihood. You’re worse off as a franchise long term, and tomorrow does come around sooner than you think.

Yes, he’s one of the best pitchers around right now. But that’s past performance. The team that signs him will be paying him for what he did with the Blue Jays, and the overwhelming likelihood is that he will not be the same pitcher over the course of his next contract. He’s already been banged up a bit in recent years, and the guys who continue dominate in their late 30’s (especially in the tough AL East) are few and far between. The one guy who we all thought was the exception to the rule was Randy Johnson and he went from dominating the NL West at age 40 (ERA+ 177) to becoming a very ordinary pitcher the very next season in the AL East with the Yankees (ERA+ 112) and even worse the following season (ERA+ 90) with the Bombers.

If I’m going to give up a huge package of prospects, I want it to be for someone who is entering their prime years. Someone who I can project should put up his best seasons here, not have already had them elsewhere. The Red Sox deal for Josh Beckett comes to mind. A trade for King Felix or Josh Johnson would fit the bill. Those I guys I’d break the bank for. For Halladay, I’d only give up one of our young studs. A package of Joba+ a B-prospect? Fine. A Hughes+ filler deal? I’ll live w/it. But not multiple studs who I’ll be watching enter their prime as I watch Roy age. The ‘trade in your division’ stuff cuts both ways for me. Watching Montero hit 40 HR’s while a 36 year old Halladay spends 2 months on the DL will drive me batty,and I’m sure many other Yankee fans as well.

So while a 2010 BoSox rotation of Halladay/Beckett/Lester would be scary, and undoubtedly the best in Baseball on paper, I’ll still take my chances with the young guns we have now. Let Boston have 23 mil per year of dead weight on their books in the out years of the deal, it will affect them more than the Yanks. The Yanks are just exiting a period when they had old, unproductive dead weight on their books year after year and I don’t want to go back there anytime soon. I don’t make this deal for the same reason we didn’t make the Santana deal. I don’t want to pay twice for a pitcher who’s already showing signs of slipping (health-wise) and I think we’re better off in the long run if we stand pat.

Aug 032009

Via MLBTradeRumors:

Baker hears that the Red Sox gave the Mariners the chance to choose five of the following players in exchange for Felix Hernandez:

Clay Buchholz
Daniel Bard
Justin Masterson
Nick Hagadone
Michael Bowden
Felix Doubront
Josh Reddick
Yamaico Navarro

It seems that the Red Sox were protecting Lars Anderson, Casey Kelly, and Ryan Westmoreland, among others. As we learned this morning, Brian Cashman was one of the GM’s who called to inquire on Hernandez. An equivalent list from the Yankees would probably read as follows:

Phil Hughes/ Joba Chamberlain
Austin Jackson
Zach McCallister
Ian Kennedy
Dellin Betances
Austin Romine
Mark Melancon
Kelvin DeLeon

Would you be willing to give up 5 players on that list to get Hernandez? I certainly would. If I could get King Felix without giving up Jesus Montero, I would almost certainly make that trade. The fact that Hernandez may be available in a deal makes it less likely that he ever sees free agency. If so, a preemptive strike to acquire him might be required to obtain the fledgling ace, who is certainly a unique talent. What would you do?

Here’s the video. RAB‘s Mike Axisa recaps the Yankee highlights via MLBTR:

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman told Rosenthal that he was “very aggressive” going after pitching help, whether it be high-end starters, low-end starters, or relievers. “I was on all of it,” Cashman said.
  • Cashman specifically targeted Jarrod Washburn, but the Mariners asked for top prospect Austin Jackson in return. The Yankees were also “one of several clubs” to inquire about Felix Hernandez.
  • Rosenthal says Heath Bell was their primary target among relievers, as the idea was to make him the primary setup man for Mariano Rivera, and possibly put Phil Hughes or Alfredo Aceves back into the rotation.

A few reactions. First, kudos to Cash for passing on Washburn. He’s a nice pitcher who’s having a good season, but I don’t give up a top flight prospect like A-Jax for 2 months of him. Next, if Heath Bell was on the team, then even with as great as Hughes has been as the setup man, he would be expendable to be stretched out in the minors and join the rotation in September. But the trade didn’t happen so he’s not. This illustrates that the Yanks still view Hughes as a starter long term, and and their desire to make Aceves the 5th starter. But since a trade didn’t pan out, now they’ll be looking to make these things happen internally. The key(s) to this will be the performances of Brian Bruney, Mark Melancon and possibly Damaso Marte. If any of them assert themselves as reliable bullpen options on par with Aceves, look for his return to the rotation. That doesn’t mean Mitre is out, Aceves will likely be taking Joba’s place as he approaches his innings limits.

Finally, I’m amazed the Mariners are even listening to offers for King Felix at this point. He has only 4 years of service time, so the team still controls him for the next few seasons. But the fact that they even listened to offers signals their intent with him, and unless he signs a massive extension (doubtful) I’d expect him to be the focus of attention for next year’s trade deadline should the Mariners fall out of contention. He will draw an enormous trade package, and the biggest contract in Baseball history should he go free agent. 25 year old elite power pitchers just don’t hit the FA market, ever. He could garner 8-10 years at CC Sabathia money as a free agent. Depending on his health, he’s also a possible 300 game winner in an era where many sportswriters thought they’d never see one again.

BTW-Once again, NoMaas knocks it out of the park. Congrats to the Melkman, who made quite the delivery yesterday.

Jun 302009

Here’s Buster Olney (ESPN) discussing Mariners’ ace, Felix Hernandez:

But so long as Hernandez remains healthy, he will continue to climb toward what figures to be a monster contract. He is still just 23 years old, and he is on track to become a free agent after the 2011 season. CC Sabathia Alexander dvdrip

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got a six-year, $161 million contract when he was 28 years old. Johan Santana got his record deal when he was 28 years old.

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Just imagine what the Mets, Angels, Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs might be willing to pay Hernandez, as a healthy, elite pitcher at age 25. The economy will have no impact on a 25-year-old who can throw two types of fastballs, his curve and changeup for strikes at any point in the ball-strike count, with conviction and dominance.

Guess who else will be a free agent after the 2011 season?

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That’s right, Chien-Ming Wang.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees let Wang go and replace him with King Felix. I mean, why pay for the lesser pitcher—which Wang is. You might as well get the best that’s on the market and unless a prospect like Andrew Brackman is ready by then, there isn’t a clear internal replacement for Wang, making Felix a legitimate target. It’s pretty amazing just how young he is, actually. I can certainly see the Sox and the Yankees engaging in a bidding war for his services once he is available.

Of course, such a bidding war could ultimately depend on where Joe Mauer signs, though, as he’ll be a FA at the end of 2010—unless the Twins are smart and grant him an extension—which could handcuff either team’s spending if they decide to go after him, instead (a definite possibility).

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