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I received a tip on the Jeter negotiations last night, and Jon Heyman confirmed my information a few minutes later. The Yankees are poised to raise their offer to Derek Jeter from 3 years, 45 million to 3 years, 51 million with an option for a 4th year. The option would include a substantial buyout close to 6 million dollars, which would put the actual value of the deal at 3 years, 57 million. The two sides met last night after Casey Close reached out to the club, and by all accounts the meeting had a positive feeling and there is optimism that middle ground can be reached.

This deal would allow both sides to come out of this battle relatively unscathed, as Jeter will have avoided a pay cut, while the Yankees will have limited Jeter to a 3 year deal. Jeter’s camp can play off his previous demands as simply being part of the negotiating process, a similar tact to that the Yankees are sure to take regarding their dismissal of Jeter’s off field value.

For the first time in weeks, it seems like there may be room for compromise in the Derek Jeter contract negotiation. Hopefully the team can lock up their shortstop in the next week or so and then begin to work on securing Cliff Lee.

Dec 012010

This is fun. Beckett Media’s Beckettblog did some photoshops to see what Derek would look like in other team’s uniforms. Here were some highlights:

To view Derek in all of the other 29 MLB uniforms click here.

Captions, anyone?

We’ve already had something similar to this here at TYU. You can still see it over on the sidebar: If the Yankees could only afford one of the two, which one would you want them to select: Cliff Lee or Derek Jeter?

Today, I come with a similar question. Let’s throw out all the contract demands. Let’s throw out all the talk we’ve heard since the season ended about both players and where they’ll be in 2011 (for now at least)

Let’s also make some assumptions:

1. Each player wants just a one year contract.
2. Each player wants the same amount of money; for simplicity’s sake, we’ll call it $X.
3. The Yankees have a budget and have only $X to spend.

The argument for Jeter:
1. He’s in the lineup every day.
2. It’s harder to hide an everyday player, like a replacement level SS, than it is to hide a fourth or fifth starter.
3. He’s less likely to succumb to injury than Pettitte.
4. He could be due for a rebound at the plate.
5. Pettitte could be do for a regression on the mound.

The argument for Pettitte:
1. The old mantra: pitching, pitching, pitching.
2. It’s easier to acquire something close to a quality shortstop than it is to find a quality pitcher.
3. Pettitte could be healthy again after getting some shelf time in 2010.

There are other mitigating factors this argument can hinge on, the most important of which is Cliff Lee. If the Yankees sign Cliff Lee, signing Andy Pettitte becomes a lot less necessary. If they don’t sign Cliff Lee, the pitching staff may be short handed.

Obviously, we think the Yankees can and will land both of these guys. I definitely expect both of them to be wearing pinstripes in 2011, and I think you do, too. But, for argument’s sake–and who doesn’t love a good argument?–let’s assume the Yankees can only sign one of these guys. Which one would you take?

Nov 292010

While there is always the small possibility that Jeter doesn’t return in 2011, I think we can all agree it’s on the unlikely side. How unlikely I’m sure we’ll disagree on, but we can probably find common ground in the unlikelihood of a Jeter-less 2011 in the Bronx. How Jeter performs in 2011, though, is obviously a mystery.

In 2008, it looked like the beginning of the end was coming. Aside from his cup of coffee in 1995, 2008 saw Jeter with his worst ever wOBA to that point (.343), second lowest walk rate (7.8%), and lowest IsoP (.107). It was later revealed that Jeter was playing through a hand injury and that was what sapped him of his power. Still, though, we wondered if decline was coming. 2009, though, seemed to erase those doubts.

During that campaign, Jeter put up his fourth highest (.390) wOBA and his .131 IsoP was more in line with hsi career averages. Maybe Derek would be able to keep defying time at the shortstop position.

2010, however, gave us a bit of a reality check. Everything important–AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS/wOBA/wRC+/IsoP–was a career worst for Jeter. We’ve heard no news of an injury, so this seems to be all on Jeter. The only thing Jeter “had” this year was “mid-to-late-thirties-shortstop-itis”. Guys with that tend not to have good seasons.

With a down-up-down swing like that, how can we even come close to predicting what he’s going to do in 2011, which will be his age 37 season?

First, let’s look at his comparable players through age 36 on B-R and see where they were at age 37. Let’s use wOBA as our baseline here.

Roberto Alomar: No age 37 season.
Craig Biggio (2003): .337 in 717 PAs
Frankie Frisch (1936): .325 in 348 PAs
Ted Simmons (1987): .319 in 200 PAs
Robin Yount (1993): .316 in 514 PAs
Charlie Gehringer (1940): .409 in 629 PAs
Johnny Damon: No age 37 season yet.
Cal Ripken (1998): .320 in 659 PAs
Alan Trammell (1995): .312 in 255 PAs
Pete Rose (1978): .351 in 729 PAs

There’s a pretty wide range of values there, but most fall in the .315-.330 range. So, if we go on the comparable players, we can expect Jeter to again be right around league average, or maybe a little worse in 2011. This isn’t a perfectly scientific comparison, though, since these guys all weren’t playing shortstop and some of them were apparently injured during those seasons. Taking a more scientific approach, let’s look at the Bill James projection for Jeter, which is up on FanGraphs.

Long story short, James–whose projections are usually on the optimistic side–peg Jeter at .295/.340/.370 in 703 PAs. That averages out to a .344 wOBA and a 115 wRC+, both of which are pretty much in line with his 2008 season. As un-Jeterian as that seems, I’d sign up for that line in a cocaine heartbeat. Doing some rough calculations…assuming a .327 league wOBA and -5 defense from Jeter (roughly his average UZR/150), that makes Jeter a 2.65 fWAR player in 2011.

That’s not all that great, considering he’s averaged higher than that in his career. However, I’d take that from a 37 year old short stop any day.

Like James, I see a relatively modest offensive rebound for Jeter. If he can do what James said–or even duplicate 2008–I’ll be happy with Jeter in 2011. If, like in 2009, he can rebound from a down year and have a near career year again, well that would just be gravy. We should, however, temper our expectations for Jeter. After all, not many 37 year old shortstops hit an upswing a the plate.

Photo by Al Bello, Getty Images

As I talk to Yankee fans both in person and online, a common theme has been popping up the past few days. Many fans are arguing that Derek isn’t all that hard to replace, and some even say the team would be better off without him. He’s a .270 hitter who was 10th in OPS last year, and given his defensive liabilities at SS pretty much anyone else at the position in baseball would be an upgrade in the field. They say swing a deal for a Stephen Drew-type and deploy the balance of that 15-23 mil you would have paid him elsewhere to improve the club. You would then have the payroll space to sign a Scott Downs AND Rafael Soriano to the 3 year deals you were giving Derek, plus sign a Jerry Hairston-type supersub that the Yanks have been lacking in recent years. You might even have a little left over for a Lefty bat off the bench. That would give you an offensive and defensive upgrade at SS, the best bullpen we’ve had since the late 90s, and some much needed bench help. All with the money you’re spending on Derek. From a Baseball standpoint, it’s difficult to argue with this line of thinking. It makes all the sense in the world.

But the Yankees are not just a baseball team, they’re also a business. Derek’s an iconic Yankee, one who is chasing 3,000 hits, which is something no shortstop has ever done. By the end of whatever deal Derek and the Yankees will eventually sign, he will announce his retirement, perhaps take a farewell tour throughout the league, and have a day where his number is retired at Yankee Stadium. He then transitions to being the next Joe DiMaggio, who shows up at Old Timers Day games and is among the last to be announced among the Yankee greats. All of this builds the brand that is the New York Yankees. The Yankees are all about iconic figures that span the history of the game. Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Reggie, Mattingly, and now we add Jeter to the list to represent the 96-2010 teams that won 5 World Series championships and 7 AL pennants. Putting a face to that success sells the notion in the minds of fans and the public that the Yankees aren’t just another baseball franchise, they’re a cut above. That translates into dollars from a business perspective. You pay more for the Lexus than you do for the Toyota, even if they’re made by the same company. Tickets, signage, licensing fees, etc are all sold at a premium to be affiliated with the ‘Greatest franchise in the history of sports’. It’s good business for YES and the Yankees to keep him in the fold even if there are better baseball options out there. The cold hard truth of the matter is watching Derek Jeter chase records as he declines is more compelling television, generates more fan interest and filled with more story lines than watching Stephen Drew have a good season. YES ratings will build as he draws closer and closer to #3,000, commemorative Yankee gear and memorabilia will add further to the Yankee bottom line. It isn’t all just about Baseball.

You always have to balance these business interests against baseball concerns, you can’t have someone who can’t pull his weight out there costing you games no matter how great they once were. But I don’t think anyone can argue Derek is hurting the team yet. His WAR may be slipping, but he’s still comfortably in positive territory. The ‘deploy that money elsewhere’ argument could be made for A-Rod, Cliff Lee and maybe even Mariano. But the Yanks are all about big stars doing great things. They’re not just another baseball team, they’re the Yankees.  That ‘Yankee’ name means what it does because iconic players like Jeter do great things in that uniform. Things like that build your fan base, sell your seats and put eyeballs on your network. Part of the reason why you’re a Yankee fan is because they’re not just another Baseball team. Signing Derek, even if there are better options out there, is why they’re the Yankees.

Nov 282010

Rob Neyer touched on a subject that few others have even dared to speculate about, but I must admit it’s something I’ve been kicking around myself the past few days. Here’s what Rob said:

I haven’t seen Derek Jeter‘s portfolio. I’ll guess that even a paltry $45 million (before taxes) does mean something to him, but it’s quite possible that it doesn’t. Or that it does, but not as much as his foolish pride.

I still think everything will work out OK in the end. The Yankees will move some, Jeter will move some, and everyone smiles a lot and says all the right things when the shortstop gets his $19 million per season. It’s like Sam Goldwyn said about one of his movie stars: “We’re overpaying him, but he’s worth it.”

It might not work out OK in the end, though. Either way, I’m reminded of how many pundits were so sure, just a few weeks ago, that of course Derek Jeter would never leave the Yankees. Something like that would be impossible.

Except it’s really not impossible, and never was.

I agree completely, it’s not out of the realm of possibility. It’s not as if we haven’t seen athletes walk away from the game with something left in the tank. Jermaine Dye and Jarrod Washburn did it as recently as last year. Joe DiMaggio did it. Michael Jordan did it twice. The cases of DiMaggio and Jordan are most comparable to Jeter. Both were iconic stars, the trappings of fame wore on them as they aged and they pined for an easier, simpler life.

What made me wonder about this was the 23-24 mil per year Derek is asking for. It doesn’t seem to be based on his value as a baseball player in any way. We don’t know much about Derek’s personal finances, but we do know some. He earns around 9 mil per year in endorsements according to Forbes. He’s been paid a total of 205 mil by the Yankees. Let’s say his endorsements roughly cover his tax bills, and he’s lived on the investment income his money generates. Let’s just assume for purposes of this discussion that Derek has held onto his gross baseball earnings. The days of the easy 10% return are gone with the real estate crash, but a smart money manager (which I’m sure Derek has) should still get you 6-8%  annual return blending stocks, bonds and emerging markets without taking too much risk.  If these numbers are anything close to being accurate, Derek could be earning 14 mil per year on his money alone, plus his 9 mil annually in endorsements that isn’t going anywhere even if he retires. That might explain why he’s asking the Yanks for 23-24 mil per. He could sit down with Hal and say “Look, I earn 23 mil per year without even playing Baseball. In order to make this worth my while, you need to match that.” We have all assumed the Yanks have the leverage in these negotiations, but Derek may hold the trump card after all. He may simply walk away.

Much has been made of his pursuit of 3000 hits, but if we know anything about Derek it’s that he’s not motivated by numbers. Every time he passed a milestone of some sort and asked what it means to him, he would retort “It means I’m getting old”. Does Derek love the game so much he wouldn’t walk away from it? I don’t know about that. Alex Rodriguez once recounted a story about how Derek doesn’t even watch the playoffs once the Yanks are eliminated. His place in Cooperstown is secure, with or without a 3,000th hit. He’s already one of the best hitting Shortstops who ever played the game.

Let me close with a story about my father. He was a Wall Street executive at a major firm. While he retired before the money got crazy in the mid-2000′s he still did well enough to provide his family with an upper-middle class lifestyle. As he got older he would often discuss retirement, saying “I make more now on my investments than I do in salary.” That made him wonder why he was fighting traffic, cramming himself into a subway car, and dealing with all the headaches that were waiting for him at the office on a daily basis.  Derek may be asking himself a similar question, and asking him to take a pay cut at this stage of his career may be something he is simply unwilling to do.

Nov 272010

Talking to fellow Yankee fans or listening to sports talk radio, you hear the same arguments being made over and over again by those who take Jeter’s side in these negotiations. I’ll recount them one by one and try to answer them as succinctly as possible.

“They paid Kei Igawa/Carl Pavano/insert bum here XX mil and they can’t pay Derek?”

This is the ‘repeat your mistakes’ argument. They made a bad deal here or there, so why not repeat it with Derek, who’s been a terrific Yankee. There are many problems with this argument, but I’ll try to sum it up this way. None of these people would be making this argument if it was their money being spent. Further the Yanks are very rich, very financially sophisticated bunch. This should provide the answer as to why they don’t do stupid things with their money, at least not intentionally. Giving a 36 year old who already looks washed up an above market 4 to 5 year deal would be taking most of that money and setting it on fire. It’s also self defeating if you’re a fan who wants to see the team win. The Yanks do have a budget, a high one to be sure, but taking up large amounts of budget space with unproductive players is a great way to lose games. Unlike Igawa, they can’t bury an unproductive Derek at AAA.

“How can they pay Alex and not pay Derek?”

Because they’re not in the same class as players, not even close. That was the underlying point I was making in my light-hearted modest proposal piece the other day. As stupid as that A-Rod contract was the day it was signed, the circumstances couldn’t have been any more different. Alex was 32 and coming off an MVP season (his 3rd, Derek has none) which was arguably the best season any right handed hitter ever had at the old Yankee stadium. Derek is coming off the worst showing of his career and many observers (myself included) think his bat has slowed. Also, if you think back to late 2007 you’ll remember that ownership and management was in a bit of flux at the time. George was ceding the reigns and Stienbrenner brothers Hank and Hal had yet to establish a functional ownership structure. Alex had Warren Buffet set up a direct meeting with ownership through a Goldman Sacks connection, and Scott Boras took the two novice owners to the cleaners, over the objections of their GM. Brian Cashman now runs these negotiations, in large part due to ownership understanding the mistake they made with Alex.

“Just give him the money”

And they haven’t already? They’ve already paid him more than any other player in Baseball history not named Alex Rodriguez, with a 45 mil parting gift tacked on for good measure. Here’s the table from BR:

Career Salaries (may be incomplete) Single-Season Salaries
Rank Player Career Salary Player Year Team Salary
1. Alex Rodriguez $264,416,252 Alex Rodriguez 2009 NYY $33,000,000
2. Derek Jeter $205,430,000 Alex Rodriguez 2010 NYY $33,000,000
3. Manny Ramirez $204,807,769 Alex Rodriguez 2008 NYY $28,000,000
4. Barry Bonds $188,245,322 Alex Rodriguez 2005 NYY $26,000,000
5. Randy Johnson $175,550,019 CC Sabathia 2010 NYY $24,285,714
6. Gary Sheffield $168,008,550 Manny Ramirez 2009 LAD $23,854,494
7. Greg Maddux $153,845,000 Jason Giambi 2007 NYY $23,428,571
8. Ken Griffey $151,703,682 Jason Giambi 2008 NYY $23,428,571
9. Carlos Delgado $146,299,000 Alex Rodriguez 2007 NYY $22,708,525
10. Pedro Martinez $146,259,585 Derek Jeter 2010 NYY $22,600,000

.

The current offer of 15 per year would pay Derek 2 mil more per year than any other SS in the game today, many of whom are better players at this stage of his career. Derek was 10th at his position in OPS and has long been at or near the bottom at his position by most advanced defensive metrics. They have paid him, and at 36 there is substantial risk in paying him based on current performance levels, since his skills figure to erode further over the next few years. The fact of the matter is the 3/45 deal is exceedingly generous when put in context. As Brian Cashman said, shop it around and see how it looks then. 

Bill Madden is reporting that sources in the Jeter camp are looking for a deal that would pay Derek 25 million per year until age 42. He writes:

Throughout this process, Close and Jeter have never revealed what they’re actually looking for – which is why so many Yankee fans, opposing club officials and nationwide media types are asking: Why are the Yankees treating Jeter this way? But sources close to the Jeter/Close camp have said their starting point was six years, $150 million and that they aren’t budging on $25 million per year – which would effectively get the captain about even in annual average salary to Alex Rodriguez, the real benchmark from their standpoint in this negotiation.

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There have been hints of these figures in recent days around the Yanks, but Bill Madden now has it coming directly from Derek’s camp. This could go a long way towards explaining why the Yanks have been so aggressive in publicly taking Derek down a peg in recent days. In light of this report, the Yanks were actually soft on Jeter in their recent public statements and did him a favor by not releasing this info themselves. He’s an asset to them, so I’m sure they have no desire to damage that asset in the hearts and minds of the public. That’s a big reason why they didn’t want to go to arbitration with either Derek or Mariano, the process is ugly and requires the team to denigrate the player in order to justify their case. Now we know why Jeter’s agent Casey Close was so “baffled” the other day, the two sides are miles apart in their contract negotiation. 80 mil to be exact.

I fear this proposal will ultimately be damaging to Derek on a few levels. First, it makes him look greedy and irrational in light of his current abilities as a player. Also it forces fans and objective observers to look at the class of player he’s trying to put himself in salary-wise, and making himself look puny by comparison. That was the point behind my light-hearted Modest Proposal piece the other day. He’s never hit 54 HRs and knocked in 156 RBIs the way Alex did in 2007.  He’s never won an MVP, Alex has 3 of them. The contract proposal would pay him more than double what Chase Utley made last year. Chase has been a 29 Win player over the past 4 years, Derek’s at 16.8.  The contract he’s asking for would pay him more than Albert Pujols, and comparing Derek and Albert is like comparing Woody Allen to Arnold Schwarzenegger. If Derek wants to protect and preserve his ‘brand’ he should tread this road very, very carefully.

Over the last few days, the Yankees have lobbed a number of verbal grenades in the direction of Derek Jeter. One surprising thing about the entire saga has been the amount of support the club has gotten in this battle with the Yankee captain. I expected many more indignant fans to rip the Yankees and defend Jeter than I have seen. This has caused me to start thinking about Jeter’s legacy with the fans, and wondering whether he is truly loved by Yankees fans. This morning, I posed the following query on Twitter:

“True or false: Yankees fans respect greatly and are awed by Jeter, but do not LOVE him like they did Mantle and Mattingly.”

I got plenty of votes for both sides, but the majority definitely landed on the side of “false.” That said, I think the initial premise, that he is loved less than players like Mantle and Mattingly, holds true. One interesting comparison brought up by @jhalpin37 in the ensuing Twitter conversation was that of Jeter to Joe DiMaggio. As our own @williamnyy23 stated,

“Similar personalities…very dignified, but incredibly private. Jeter stands at arm’s length, so easier to admire than embrace.”

I think William is right on the money with that summary. DiMaggio and Jeter both came off as being the ideal athlete, acting with class and grace on and off the field. In their personal lives, both dated starlets and seemed to lead blessed lives, but did everything they could to keep that area of their lives away from prying eyes. In a way, they seemed to be almost perfect, an idealized version of what we expect from superstar athletes. Because we know only the glossy public version of Jeter, we revere him, admire him, and envy him, but I’m not sure that we can relate to him enough to love him unconditionally.

By contrast, both Mattingly and Mantle were flawed heroes. Mantle’s affable personality made him a media and fan darling, and his injuries and the sense of “what could have been” made him someone that the fan base empathized with. Mattingly had similar injury issues, and the “what could have been” factor was strong regarding him as well. Additionally, his status as the homegrown star on the first “failing” Yankees team made him the lone player that fans could latch onto during that era. These players were not perfect, but the perception was that they fought through their weaknesses and did the best they could with what they were given. Their imperfections made them relatable, something that I think is required before fans unconditionally love an athlete.

If you asked fans from their respective eras to name their favorite Yankee players, I believe Mantle and Mattingly would get more votes from fans that grew up while they were playing than Jeter would receive from the current fanbase. While there may be reasons external to the players that explains the disparity (for example, there were few alternatives to Mattingly during the 80′s), I think the distance and privacy that Jeter maintains regarding his personal life and personality leads people to revere him and be awed by him without unconditionally loving him.

What do you think? Is Jeter beloved on the same level that Mantle and Mattingly were? Or does he fit better into the DiMaggio category?

Yesterday, the Yankees declined to offer arbitration to all of their free agents (Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Lance Berkman, and Kerry Wood) except for Javier Vazquez.

We can quite easily say that offering to Vazquez was the riskiest thing the Yankees could have done. He had, by far, the worst year of the five and made a good chunk of change. Had he accepted, the Yankees probably would’ve been on the hook for a good deal of money and a (probably) unproductive player. But, Vazquez and the Yankees had an agreement, and Vazquez turned down arbitration. So, he’ll give the Yankees a sandwich pick when he signs elsewhere. This may be the best thing Javy’s done for the Yankees in 2010 (yes that’s hyperbole).

Not offering to Wood and Berkman makes a bit of sense. Wood made a lot of money and the risk of acceptance was far too big for the reward. Seeing as how Berkman wanted his option to be declined, offering him arbitration would seem less risky, but the Yankees played it safe. It’s better to be weary of the dollar, I guess.

I can’t say, though, that I expected no offers of arbitration to Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. At the end of the day, I think they’ll both end up with multi-year contracts with the Yankees so arbitration may have been superfluous. Still, I think they should’ve offered it to both players.

On the off chance that Jeter and Rivera had accepted arbitration, this would ultimately help the Yankees. While it would likely mean a massive pay day for each player, the commitment on the Yankees’ end would’ve been just one year. With aging relievers and aging shortstops, the shorter the deal, the better.

Even a decline of arbitration from either (or both) player(s) could’ve helped the Yankees. Both Rivera and Jeter likely have very little leverage on the open market. Both are pricing themselves very highly, probably too highly for any team but the Yankees. If JeVera declined arbitration, draft pick compensation would be attached. This, IMO, makes the players even more unattractive to non-Yankee teams. It may not hurt Rivera as much since he’s still performing at an elite level, but it would definitely hurt Jeter. Jeter is an aging player at a premium position–one he doesn’t field all that well–who is entering his decline phase. For the money Jeter wants and the loss of a draft pick, I don’t think any teams are willing to go that high.

Michael Kay has argued a Jeter-related point that is contrary to mine. He thinks the Yankees shouldn’t have offered Jeter arbitration because if he accepted, he’d be making a ton of money. He then posits that if Jeter has a good bounce back year, he’ll demand even more money after the 2011 season. Here’s how I see it.

Like I’ve said, I’m willing to give Jeter the money and not the years. I’d rather overpay him grossly for one year than for multiple years. My other reason is a bit cold hearted. Say the Yankees DID offer Jeter arbitration and he DID accept. Let’s just throw a number out there and say his salary for 2011 would be $23MM (I think Kay suggested this). Let’s also assume that he bounces back and hits to his career averages. Obviously, this would put the leverage on Jeter’s side. If all that were to happen, I think the Yankees could just let Jeter walk.

Let’s think about it. They will (again) have paid Jeter handsomely. He will have gotten his 3,000th hit. The Yankees could easily say that Jeter’s time as a Yankee is up.

I felt a bit dirty typing that, but it could’ve happened. Anyway, it doesn’t matter all that much since the Yankees didn’t actually offer Jeter arbitration. I’m surprised they didn’t offer it to him or Rivera and I’m very surprised that they did offer it to Vazquez (of course, before I knew of their arrangement).

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